Lecture 3 Production and Growth Principles of Macroeconomics KOF, ETH Zurich, Prof. Dr. Jan-Egbert Sturm Fall Term 2008 General Information 23.9. Introduction Ch. 1,2 30.9. National Accounting Ch. 10, 11 7.10. Production and Growth Ch. 12. 14.10. Saving and Investment Ch. 13 21.10. Unemployment Ch. 15 28.10. The Monetary System Ch. 16, 17 4.11. International Trade (incl. Basic Concepts of Supply, Demand, Ch. 3, 7, 9 Welfare) 11.11. Open Economy Macro Ch. 18 18.11. Open Economy Macro Ch. 19 25.11. Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Ch. 20 2.12. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Ch. 21 9.12. Phillips Curve Ch. 22 16.12. Overview / Q&A Real and Nominal Interest Rates • Interest rate represents the cost of borrowing or the price paid for the rental of funds (usually expressed as a percentage per year). Real and Nominal Interest Rates • The nominal interest rate is the interest rate usually reported and not corrected for inflation. • It is the interest rate that a bank pays. • The real interest rate is the interest rate that is corrected for the effects of inflation. Real and Nominal Interest Rates • You borrowed CHF 1,000 for one year. • Nominal interest rate was 15%. • During the year inflation was 10%. • Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate – Inflation = 15% – 10% = 5% • How does purchasing power change over time? Real and Nominal Interest Rates (US) Interest Rates (percent per year) 15% Nominal interest rate 10 5 0 Real interest rate 5 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Summary • The real interest rate equals the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation. Production and Growth Is there some action a government of India could take that would lead the Indian economy to grow like Indonesia’s or Egypt’s? If so, what, exactly? If not, what is it about the “nature of India” that makes it so? The consequences for human welfare involved in questions like these are simply staggering: Once one starts to think about them, it is hard to think about anything else. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. Production and Growth • A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services. • Within a country there are large changes in the standard of living over time. • In the United States over the past century, average income as measured by real GDP per person has grown by about 2 percent per year. Production and Growth • Productivity refers to the amount of goods and services produced from each unit of labor input. • A nation’s standard of living is determined largely by the productivity of its workers. Table 1 The Variety of Growth Experiences Economic Growth around the World • Living standards, as measured by real GDP per person, vary significantly among nations. • Annual growth rates that seem small become large when compounded for many years. • Compounding refers to the accumulation of a growth rate over a period of time. Huge effects from tiny differences annual percentage increase in growth rate standard of living after… of income per capita …25 years …50 years …100 years 2.0% 64.0% 169.2% 624.5% 2.5% 85.4% 243.7% 1,081.4% Huge effects from tiny differences If the annual growth rate of German real GDP per capita had been just one-tenth of one percent higher during the 1990s, Germany would have generated an additional € 112 billion of income during that decade Productivity: Its Role and Determinants • Why Productivity Is So Important • Productivity plays a key role in determining living standards for all nations in the world. • To understand the large differences in living standards across countries, we must focus on the production of goods and services. How Productivity Is Determined • The inputs used to produce goods and services are called the factors of production. • The factors of production include: • Physical capital • Human capital • Natural resources • Technological knowledge • The factors of production directly determine productivity. How Productivity Is Determined • Physical capital per worker is the stock of equipment and structures that are used to produce goods and services. • Physical capital includes: • Tools used to build or repair automobiles. • Tools used to build furniture. • Office buildings, schools, etc. • Physical capital is a produced factor of production. • It is an input into the production process that in the past was an output from the production process. How Productivity Is Determined • Human capital per worker is the economist’s term for the knowledge and skills that workers acquire through education, training, and experience. • Like physical capital, human capital raises a nation’s ability to produce goods and services. How Productivity Is Determined • Natural resources are inputs used in production that are provided by nature, such as land, rivers, and mineral deposits. • Renewable resources include trees and forests. • Nonrenewable resources include petroleum and coal. • Natural resources can be important but are not necessary for an economy to be highly productive in producing goods and services. How Productivity Is Determined • Technological knowledge includes society’s understanding of the best ways to produce goods and services. • Human capital includes the resources expended transmitting this understanding to the labor force. FYI: The Production Function • Economists often use a production function to describe the relationship between the quantity of inputs used in production and the quantity of output from production. FYI: The Production Function • Y = A F(L, K, H, N) • Y = quantity of output • A = available production technology • L = quantity of labor • K = quantity of physical capital • H = quantity of human capital • N = quantity of natural resources • F( ) is a function that shows how the inputs are combined. FYI: The Production Function • A production function has constant returns to scale if, for any positive number x, • xY = A F(xL, xK, xH, xN) • That is, a doubling of all inputs causes the amount of output to double as well. FYI: The Production Function • Production functions with constant returns to scale have an interesting implication. • Setting x = 1/L, • Y/ L = A F(1, K /L, H/L, N/L) • Where: • Y/ L = output per worker • K/L = physical capital per worker • H/L = human capital per worker • N/L = natural resources per worker FYI: The Production Function • The preceding equation says that productivity (Y/L) depends on: • physical capital per worker (K/L), • human capital per worker (H/L), • and natural resources per worker (N/L), • as well as the state of technology (A). Economic Growth and Public Policy • Government policies that raise productivity and living standards • Encourage saving and investment. • Encourage investment from abroad. • Encourage education and training. • Establish secure property rights and maintain political stability. • Promote free trade. • Promote research and development. Saving and Investment • One way to raise future productivity is to invest more current resources in the production of capital. International Evidence on Investment Rates and Income per Person Income per person in 1992 (logarithmic scale) 100,000 Canada Germany U.S. Denmark Japan Finland 10,000 Mexico Brazil U.K. Israel Singapore FranceItaly Pakistan Egypt Ivory Coast Peru Indonesia 1,000 India Zimbabwe Kenya Uganda Chad Cameroon 100 051015 20 25 30 35 40 Investment as percentage of output (average 1960 –1992) Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect • As the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is called diminishing returns. • Because of diminishing returns, an increase in the saving rate leads to higher growth only for a while. • In the long run, the higher saving rate leads to a higher level of productivity and income, but not to higher growth in these areas. Illustrating the Production Function Output per worker 1 2. When the economy has a high level of capital, an extra unit of capital leads to a small increase in output. 1. When the economy has a low level of capital, an extra unit of capital leads to a large increase in output. 1 Capital per worker Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect • The catch-up effect refers to the property whereby countries that start off poor tend to grow more rapidly than countries that start off rich. Conditional convergence: 21 OECD countries 0.03 y = -0.0141x - 9E-17 0.02 R2 = 0.7422 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 -1.20 -1.00 -0.80 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 -0.01 -0.01 Per capita output growth: 1960-92 -0.02 Log output per capita: 1960 Investment from Abroad • Governments can increase capital accumulation and long-term economic growth by encouraging investment from foreign sources. • Investment from abroad takes several forms: • Foreign Direct Investment • Capital investment owned and operated by a foreign entity. • Foreign Portfolio Investment • Investments financed with foreign money but operated by domestic residents. Education • For a country’s long-run growth, education is at least as important as investment in physical capital. • In the United States, each year of schooling raises a person’s wage, on average, by about 10 percent. • Thus, one way the government can enhance the standard of living is to provide schools and encourage the population to take advantage of them. Education • An educated person might generate new ideas about how best to produce goods and services, which in turn, might enter society’s pool of knowledge and provide an external benefit to others. • One problem facing some poor countries is the brain drain — the emigration of many of the most highly educated workers to rich countries. Health and Nutrition • Healthier workers are more productive.