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Toward a Political Settlement in Afghanistan

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Toward a Political Settlement in Afghanistan TALKING ABOUT TALKS: TOWARD A POLITICAL SETTLEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN Asia Report N°221 – 26 March 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. A HISTORY OF FAILURE ............................................................................................. 5 A. THE GENEVA ACCORDS ............................................................................................................... 5 B. RECONCILIATION UNDER NAJIBULLAH ......................................................................................... 7 C. THE PRICE OF POWER-SHARING: THE MUJAHIDIN AND THE TALIBAN .......................................... 8 D. POST-9/11 AFGHANISTAN ............................................................................................................ 9 III. COMPETING INTERESTS ........................................................................................... 10 A. PAKISTAN .................................................................................................................................. 10 B. INDIA ......................................................................................................................................... 12 C. IRAN .......................................................................................................................................... 13 D. CENTRAL ASIAN STATES ........................................................................................................... 14 E. RUSSIA AND CHINA .................................................................................................................... 15 IV. FALSE DICHOTOMIES, FLAWED STRATEGIES ................................................. 17 A. EARLY DISARMAMENT AND REINTEGRATION EFFORTS .............................................................. 18 B. AFGHANISTAN PEACE AND REINTEGRATION PROGRAM (APRP) .................................................. 19 V. NEGOTIATIONS IN CONTEXT.................................................................................. 23 A. WHEELING AND DEALING .......................................................................................................... 25 B. TALKS ABOUT TALKS ................................................................................................................. 28 VI. TOWARD A POLITICAL SETTLEMENT ................................................................. 34 A. BEYOND POWER-SHARING ......................................................................................................... 34 B. DRAWING A ROADMAP .............................................................................................................. 34 1. Devising a sustainable peace ..................................................................................................... 34 2. Mapping the agenda ................................................................................................................... 35 3. Negotiating with the insurgency ................................................................................................ 36 VII. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................. 38 APPENDICES A. MAP OF AFGHANISTAN .................................................................................................................... 39 B. GLOSSARY ....................................................................................................................................... 40 C. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .................................................................................... 41 D. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA SINCE 2009 ......................................................... 42 E. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ................................................................................................ 44 Asia Report N°221 26 March 2012 TALKING ABOUT TALKS: TOWARD A POLITICAL SETTLEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS A negotiated political settlement is a desirable outcome to sequenced roadmap that would prioritise domestic recon- the conflict in Afghanistan, but current talks with the Tal- ciliation and include basic political reforms, accompanied iban are unlikely to result in a sustainable peace. There is by a multilateral mediation effort, the Afghan government a risk that negotiations under present conditions could and its international backers have adopted a market- further destabilise the country and region. Debilitated by bazaar approach to negotiations. Bargains are being cut internal political divisions and external pressures, the with any and all comers, regardless of their political rele- Karzai government is poorly positioned to cut a deal with vance or ability to influence outcomes. Far from being leaders of the insurgency. Afghanistan’s security forces Afghan-led, the negotiating agenda has been dominated are ill-prepared to handle the power vacuum that will oc- by Washington’s desire to obtain a decent interval be- cur following the exit of international troops. As political tween the planned U.S. troop drawdown and the possibil- competition heats up within the country in the run-up to ity of another bloody chapter in the conflict. The material NATO’s withdrawal of combat forces at the end of 2014, effect of international support for negotiations so far has the differing priorities and preferences of the parties to been to increase the incentives for spoilers, who include the conflict – from the Afghan government to the Taliban insurgents, government officials and war profiteers of all leadership to key regional and wider international actors – backgrounds and who now recognise that the international will further undermine the prospects of peace. To avoid community’s most urgent priority is to exit Afghanistan another civil war, a major course correction is needed that with or without a settlement. results in the appointment of a UN-mandated mediation team and the adoption of a more realistic approach to res- The government’s efforts to start negotiations have been olution of the conflict. both half-hearted and haphazard. Amid fundamental dis- agreements over the very meaning of reconciliation, the No matter how much the U.S. and its NATO allies want process appears focused on political accommodation with to leave Afghanistan, it is unlikely that a Washington- a phalanx of unsavoury powerbrokers. The rhetorical clam- brokered power-sharing agreement will hold long enough our over talks about talks has led to desperate and dan- to ensure that the achievements of the last decade are not gerous moves on the part of the government to bring pur- reversed. A lasting peace accord will ultimately require ported leaders from the three main insurgent groups – the far more structured negotiations, under the imprimatur of Taliban, Hizb-e Islami and the Haqqani network – to the the UN, than are presently being pursued. The Security negotiating table. This state of confusion has stoked fears Council should mandate Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon among ethnic minorities, civil society and women that the to appoint a small team of mutually agreeable mediators aim of Karzai’s reconciliation policy is primarily to shore as soon as possible to ensure that critical stakeholders are up his constituency among conservative Pashtun elites at fully consulted and will remain engaged in the negotia- the expense of hard-fought protections for Afghan citizens. tions process. The unequivocal commitment of the Secu- A thorough reassessment of Karzai’s national reconcilia- rity Council, which includes among its members Pakistan tion policy, the role of the High Peace Council and the (through December 2013), will be vital to this endeavour. Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program (APRP) is Consultations on preparations for the appointment and urgently needed. The program has faced staunch resistance organisation of the team and the appointment of an indi- from local security officials mistrustful of participants’ vidual to lead it should begin immediately with the aim of motives, and its impact has been minimal at best. having the team in place well before the security transi- tion is completed. The Afghan government must include all relevant domes- tic stakeholders in the negotiation process rather than the So far there is little evidence that any of the parties to the current amalgam of warlords. A small team of designated conflict recognise the urgency of the situation. Instead of a negotiators with demonstrated expertise in national and Talking About Talks: Toward a Political Settlement in Afghanistan Crisis Group Asia Report N°221, 26 March 2012 Page ii international affairs should be selected to shape the agen- Ensuring that the next presidential election, at the end of da. The government’s negotiating team should reflect the Karzai’s term in 2014, results in the peaceful transfer of country’s diversity – linguistically, ethnically, religiously power will be critical. Any attempt to extend his term and otherwise – and should include representatives from would trigger an irreversible constitutional crisis and wid- the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission en the appeal of armed resistance. No later than May 2013 (AIHRC) and the National Security Council (NSC). The – a year before
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