Groupes Motopropulseurs Du Futur Pour Une Mobilité À Faibles Émissions De Carbone

Groupes Motopropulseurs du Futur pour une Mobilité à faibles Émissions de Carbone

Ralph Saliba, Juergen Manns, Carsten von Essen CNAM Conference, Paris, 27 Mars 2018

IAV 03/2018 TP-T CvE Status: draft, confidential 1 Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility

Content

Introduction – where are we today ?

Options for a CO2 - free Mobility Combustion & Hybrid Engines Battery Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Powertrains Fuel Cell Powertrain Life Cycle Assessment Customer Behaviour & Incentives Outlook & Conclusions

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 2 Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility

Content

Introduction – where are we today ?

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 3 Share of Worldwide, Anthropogenic (man-made) CO2–Emissions

Total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use) emissions (gigatonne of CO2- equivalent per year, GtCO2- eq/yr) from economic sectors in 2010 Source: IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report

 Transport is responsible for 14% of anthropogenic CO2-Emissions  For reasons of climate change and conservation of resources, more renewable energy sources need to be used in the future

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 4 Worldwide Fleet of Light-Duty Vehicles (PC & LCV)

worldwide vehicle fleet scenario (ExxonMobil) worldwide no. of electric vehicles (IEA) Billion Source: ExxonMobil, 2017 The Outlook for Energy –Energy Source: ExxonMobil, Outlook for 2017 The 2040 to View A

 The worldwide vehicle fleet will further grow in the next years. Forecasts for 2040 predict up to 2 Billion vehicles.  Electric vehicles will only have a minor share until 2040

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 5 Future Worldwide Fuel Demand

MBDOE (Million Barrels per Day Oil-Equivalent)

Despite a steadily increase of gasoline- powered vehicles, the overall gasoline fuel demand will not grow from 2020 due to efficiency improvements and hybridization Source: ExxonMobil, 2017 The Outlook for Energy –Energy Source: ExxonMobil, Outlook for 2017 The 2040 to View A

 Worldwide fuel consumption will still further increase  Measures to improve fuel efficiency cannot compensate increasing vehicle numbers and other consumers

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 6 Climate Protection Plans for 2050 regarding Future Mobility

The Paris Resolution from 2015 means in fact that we have to reduce the greenhouse- gas emissions until 2050 by 80% – 95%, compared to 1990 level. This means that mobility in 2050 has to be

largely CO2-free and that the energy for transportation needs to come from renewable sources.

In principal, there are 3 options to fulfil these demands: 1. Use of electrical energy from solar and wind power plants for the operation of electric vehicles

2. Transformation of electrical energy from renewable sources into hydrogen (H2) in order to operate fuel cell vehicles

3. Transformation of electrical energy from renewable sources and hydrogen (H2)into synthetic fuels (e-fuels) in order to operate vehicles with combustion engine

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 7 CO2 emissions in Europe by OEM ng of CO2 emissions from passenger cars – CO2 in fleet emissions g/km r annual report 2017, BMW Pressrelease 2017, annual report BMW r 2018

CO2 target based on curb weight 2009; Daimle Source: European Agency, Environment Monitori Regulation 443/

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 8 Key Data from the EU

Source: Volkswagen

EU passenger car fleet (2015): 256 Mio. New passenger car registrations (in 2016): 14,6 Mio. Share of renewable energy from EU electricity generation (2017): 30,0 % Share of nuclear power from EU electricity generation (2017): 25,6 % Share of nuclear power from French electricity generation (2017): 71,0 %

CO2-emissions from overall EU electricity generation (2014): 276 g/kWh  Natural replacement of older vehicles (EU4 and EU5) will still take many years  Impact of EU6 vehicles with latest technology on overall air quality is limited as long as many old vehicles are still on the road

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 9 Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility

Content

Introduction – where are we today ?

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 10 Three main Ways for a CO2-free Mobility

Source: AUDI Source: BMW Source: DAIMLER Combustion Engine & Battery Electric Vehicle Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) (BEV) (FCEV)

Requirement: Requirement: Requirement:

. Using fuels which are . Using green electricity . Using Hydrogen (H2) produced without which is produced which is produced

impact on CO2 without impact on CO2 without impact on CO2  e-fuels

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 11 Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility

Content

Introduction – where are we today ?

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 12 Combustion Engines Challenge: Minimize Local Emissions

Future gasoline engine technologies . Gasoline Particulate Filter . Improved Mapwide Control for  = 1 . Electrical Heated Catalysts . High-Pressure Injection Systems (350 bar) . Reduced Wall Heat Losses / Phase Change Cooling . Variable Compression Ratio

Source: Toyota . Pre-Chamber Spark Plug Future diesel engine technologies . VVL (2nd exhaust valve lift) . Insulated combustion chamber . low-surface piston shape

. Transient NOx Control . LNT + aSCR/DPF + SCR

Source: Daimler  There is still room for improvement of the classical combustion engines

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 13 Hybridization The Enabler for further CO2 Reduction

67% Savings based on Legislation 100% (@50km e-range) Real CO2 Savings in WLTC 25 – 30% Electrical Vehicle 15 - 25% Plug-In Hybrid BEV HEV / P2 HV-System 5 - 15% Full Hybrid HV-System >> 100V HV-System >> 100V elec. Acceleration Mild Hybrid > 100V elec. Acceleration elec. Driving 48V elec. Acceleration electric. Driving Recuperation extend. Stop/Start electric Driving Recuperation Recuperation < 90 kW < 5% elec. Acceleration limited elec. Driving ISG 40 … 90 kW

savings @ WLTC savings @ Recuperation Micro Hybrid

2 BSG or ISG < 25 kW 12V Stop/Start CO BSG < 12 kW

< 3 kW High Voltage (HV) System

System costs / degree of electrification

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 14 Hybridization Why 48V Power Net ?

1000 12 V . Classical power net is limited to maximum 250A 800 . Short-time peaks of up to 400A 600 are possible

400 48 V . With introduction of 2nd level 250 A max. power net with 48V the 200 effectively usable power will increase by factor 4

3 6912 P (kW) Max. power Max. power 12 V PN 48 V PN

 The increase of effective power up to 12 kW (18 kW peak power) @ 48V

establishes potentials for further measures of CO2-Emission reduction and future potentials for technical innovation for drivability and aftertreatment

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 15 48V Power Supply CO2 Reduction with a Mild-Hybrid Powertrain

Selected Simulation Results Vehicle: C-Segment Weight: 1380 kg Engine: 3-cyl. 1.0 l gasoline Transmission: 6-gear-DCT Reduction in % 2 Potential for CO Source: Dr. M. Fritz, T. Hillenbrand, T. Pfund, 48V Technologies in 2017 extra, ATZ Passenger Cars,

. Depending on the mounting position and the power output of the e-motor the

potential for CO2 reduction of a 48V hybrid system is between 3% and 18 % . 20 kW is the upper limit for 48V e-motors. With lower power output (e.g. 12 or 15

kW) the potential for CO2 reduction will be around 10%

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 16 48V Power Supply Enabler for new Technologies

Electrical heated 48V Hybrid Powertrain: Electrical compressor catalyst NOx: - 20% (WLTC) First market launch: First marketCO2: launch:5% - 15% First market launch: not yet (for passenger cars) already done already done

 With a 48V power supply system, some technologies that are reducing CO2-

and NOx-emissions are becoming more economic

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 17 Hybridization Full Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) in Europe

CO2 - Emission vs. Battery Capacity 200 LS 600h HEV 180 PHEV Range Rover 160 Q50

S 400A8AH 5 140 HEV XV 120 CR-Z RAV4

100 LSMondeo 300h C300 HEV: Niro . Typical BatteryGLE 500e size of HEV‘s is 2 kWh 80 Ioniq X5 40e Cayenne S Prius IV Panamera S Panamera TS Note . Limited potentialS 500e for CO2 savings due to low 60 GLC 350e Sport quattro C-Max / Fusion Panamera 4 -Emission [g/km] battery capacity 2 C 350ei8 330eXC 740Le 90 T8 V60 D6 ELR Q7 e-tron 225xe S90 T8 Outlander

CO 40 . Limited electricA3Golf e-tron 7 Passat driving 8 Var. capabilities Ioniq Twin Up Volt 20 XL. 1 FuelTDI savingPrius byPrime recuperation and load shifting i3 0 0 5 10 15 20 Battery Capacity [kWh]

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 18 CO2 - neutral Fuels Example from AUDI: production of e-Diesel

The planned facility will have a capacity of around 400,000 liters (105,669 US gal) per year. Source: AUDI

 The Fischer-Tropsch reaction is used to produce e-diesel from CO2 and renewable energy Source: AUDI

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 19 CO2 - neutral Fuels Power-to-Liquid: e-Diesel Production from Wind Energy

. Electrolysis of water to oxygen and

hydrogen (H2) with green electricity

. Reaction of H2 with CO2 in two chemical processes at 220 °C and 25 bar to a liquid of oxygenated hydrocarbons . This process has an efficiency of up to 70%. Source: AUDI, 2015

. By using such e-diesel fuel, also older cars can run relatively clean . However, it is not possible to avoid tailpipe emissions completely . Power-to-Liquid plants are currently not yet profitable . In some countries, taxes have to be paid for electric energy that is used for production of e-fuels. Therefor, the EU currently is looking for better boundary conditions for the production of e-fuels

. Similar to e-Diesel, also Kerosene and Gasoline fuel can be produced CO2 - neutral

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 20 CO2 - neutral Fuels Power-to-Gas (CH4) / Example from AUDI

Source: AUDI

 Mining & Production of CNG need less effort & energy than for liquid e-fuels

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 21 CNG Powertrain Example: Audi A4 Avant g-tron

CNG tank module with 4 CNG bottles CNG filling plug 2.0 l TFSI engine 19 kg CNG / 200 bar 125 kW / 270 Nm Source: AUDI, 38. International Source: AUDI, Engine Symposium, Vienna Vienna, 2017 CNG pressure CNG pipes Fuel tank control Advantage of e-CNG Engines: . Less soot from combustion . High knocking resistance . Technology is available and relatively cheap compared to electrified PWT

. Lower CO2 emissions compared to gasoline and diesel

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 22 CO2 - neutral Fuels Efficiency of Energy Conversion and Driving

Production Transport Drive 

90 % 100 % 95 % Electricity Electricity 85%

50 % 64 % - 77 % 80 % 2626 % % - - H2 3131 % % -

30 % 49 % - 77 % 99 % 1515 % % - - CH4 2323 % % -

30 % 45% - 50% 99 % e-Diesel/ 1313 % % - - e-Gasoline 1515 % % - Source: DVGW, Entwicklung DVGW, Source: modularen von Konzepten zur Speicherung Erzeugung, und Methan und EinspeisungWissenschaftliche 2013; ins Erdgasnetz, Wasserstoff von Dienste DeutscherAktueller Bundestag, Daimler,Figures: Audi BMW, Begriff2012; Gas, to Power

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 23 CO2 - neutral Fuels CNG - European Natural Gas Network Source: entsog, ENTSOG -European The (Capacities at Network Natural Gas cross-border points on market), 2017 the primary

 Europe has a nationwide natural gas infrastructure

 CH4 from a power-to-gas plant can be fed into the existing gas network.

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 24 Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility

Content

Introduction – where are we today ?

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 25 Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV & PHEV)

BEV: . Shows the best local emission behaviour . Fully depends on charging infrastructure . Operating range depends on costs

PHEV: . Both advantages of a BEV and a combustion engine are combined

. Real CO2 savings depend on battery size and use of recharging option . Less dependency on charging infrastructure

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 26 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Components of a BEV

electrical heater

electric air conditioning

electric brake booster

High-voltage electric motor battery lines power electronic

Source: H. Manz, M. Bruna, M. Thiel: Batteriesysteme "Made in Braunschweig" - Aspekte einer neuen Technologie für einen Fahrwerkstandort, Volkswagen AG, 2015

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 27 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Low Temperature

Source: BMW

BMW i3 (2016): Battery capacity: 21,6 kWh Car sharing BMW i3 at ambient Nominal range (NEDC): 190 km temperature of -6,5°C: range = 67km

 Low temperatures significantly reduce the range of electric vehicles

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 28 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Value-added Chain of a Battery

ktromobilität Roadmap (NPE), integrierte Materials Components Cells Batteries

Bundesregierung, Bundesregierung, Berlin, 2015 Graphite Anodes Pouch Cell Battery Metal Oxides Cathodes Round Cell Battery Modules Polymers Separators Prisma Cell Salts Electrolytes Black Carbons Seal Bands Cu / Al layers Packaging Quelle: NOW, 2011 und NationalenQuelle: NOW, Plattform Ele Zell- und Batterieproduktion–2 AG Deutschland, Gemeinsame Batterietechnologie, Geschäftsstelle Elektromobilität der Solvents Current Conductor

 The traction battery is today the most important part of an electric vehicle with 30 - 40% share of the added value  The battery cell is the part with the highest added value of the battery pack (60 - 70%)

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 29 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Trend of the Battery Cost 2010 - 2035

Future Past ,2013;Chevrolet, 2016; P3 Group, 2014; Horvath 2014; Horvath ,2013;Chevrolet, & Partners, 2016; 2016; P3 Group, Battery Costs in EURO / kWh / EURO in Costs Battery Source: RoalndSource: 2017; DoE, 2017; U.S. 2015, Bloomberg, 2016; GM, 2009; Tesla, Berger, VW,2017; mobililty 2.0 2009; 2012; Aachen, RWTH 2015;ZBW, 2010; DLR, Akasol, 2015; VDE,

 Battery costs have dropped over the past years significantly  However, battery costs need to be further reduced so that the costs of a BEV reach a similar level as a passenger car with combustion engine

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 30 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Research Project EMBATT - Chassis Embedded Energy

Motivation . 1000 km electrical driving range by low battery costs and high safety requirements . Amount of storage material in current battery systems comprising of cells, modules and periphery is only about 30-40 % . Modular battery concepts are necessary to achieve requirements for EV and utility vehicles

Project Partner: Fraunhofer IKTS, IAV GmbH, thyssenkrupp System Engineering GmbH

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 31 Hybrid & Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles in Europe

CO2 - Emission vs. Battery Capacity 200 LS 600h HEV 180 PHEV PHEV Range Rover 160 Q50 . Typical Battery size of PHEV‘s is 5 to 20 kWh S 400A8AH 5 . Real electric driving capabilities 140 HEV . Fuel saving by recuperation and load shifting 120 XV CR-Z RAV4 . Additional fuel saving by battery re-charging

100 LSMondeo 300h C300 Niro GLE 500e 80 Ioniq X5 40e Cayenne S Prius IV Panamera S Panamera TS Note S 500e 60 GLC 350e Sport quattro C-Max / Fusion Panamera 4 -Emission [g/km] 2 C 350ei8 330eXC 740Le 90 T8 V60 D6 ELR Q7 e-tron 225xe S90 T8 Outlander

CO 40 A3Golf e-tron 7 Passat 8 Var. Ioniq Twin Up PHEV Volt 20 XL 1 TDI Prius Prime i3 0 0 5 10 15 20 Battery Capacity [kWh]

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 32 Hybrid & EV Transmission Systems

. Dedicated transmission systems for hybrid powertrains and even EV‘s help to improve driveability and efficiency . With increasing numbers of hybrid and electric vehicles the development of such dedicated and integrated transmission systems will become worth the effort

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 33 Hybrid & EV Transmission Systems Selected Examples from IAV

IAV Power Hybrid IAV Electrified LC IAV eDrive 2nd Generation . Dedicated Hybrid Transmission Platform . Pure electric drive unit . Several hybrid & electric modes . Dedicated Hybrid TM . Scalable eMotor (80kW, . Scalable eMotor (90kW, . Several hybrid & electric 280Nm) 300Nm) modes . Modularity in terms number . Based on 4-speed 750Nm . 48V-eMotor (15kW) of speeds (1- to 3-speeds) Transmission . Based on 3-speed 220Nm . A- to D-segment application . High performance application Transmission . Low Cost application (A- & B-segment)

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 34 Charging Infrastructure Overview on Different Charging Systems

3,6 kW

typical 11 kW ilitätDeutsche (NPE), Die Normungs- (3,6 - 44 kW)

typical 22 kW (up to 50 kW)

typical 22 kW (up to 44 kW) typical 50 kW (up to 400 kW) Source: Nationale Plattform Elektromob Roadmap Elektromobilität2017 2020, Berlin,

 Standardization is still ongoing  Standardization is necessary for charging, billing and vehicle-to-grid

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 35 Source: NOW (Nationale Organisation Wasserstoff- und Infrastructure Charging a for Costs Analysis Charging Infrastructure   Brennstoffzellentechnologie), 2011 Costs for infrastructure relatively high compared to revenue with charging high comparedtorevenuewith relatively Costs forinfrastructure charging stations Additional businessmodels arelooked forinorderto financethecosts for Hardware Charging Station One-time costs in EUR per charging point One-time per charging costs inEUR Hardware Payment A .... 321 -R. Saliba 03/2018 - IAV S.A.S.U. - Direct Installation of Charging Station Power Supply Connection to Subsidy Building Cost of E-Parking Designation Space Permission E-Parking for Amount Total 36 Charging Infrastructure Example for Requirements: Berlin, Kantstraße

Length of the street: 2,3 km No. of private vehicles (= no. of required parking lots): 800 No. of charging stations: 400 Charging power for each parking lot: 11 kW Power demand from the whole street: 4,4 MW (for estimated 50% utilization) Costs per charging station: 9.000 € Overall costs per street: 3.6 Mio. €

 In residential areas the transition to EV‘s requires huge investments in infrastructure  Solutions for a controlled charging or even discharging of EV‘s for a stabilization of the electrical power network are not available on short-term

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 37 Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility

Content

Introduction – where are we today ?

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 38 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV)

FCEV: . Electric Powertrain with on-board

power generation from H2 . Higher mileage possible as with BEV . Quicker refilling as with BEV

. Build-up of H2 refilling stations faster than build-up of e-charging infrastructure

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 39 H2-based Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) First Fuel Cell Vehicle - GM Electrovan (1966) Source: Opel

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 40 H2-based Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) DAIMLER GLC F-Cell and TOYOTA Mirai

H2 - based

Source: Daimler and Toyota and Source: Daimler Tank size: 4 kg H2 Tank size : 5 kg H2 Battery type: Lithium-Ion Battery type : Lithium-Ion Battery Capacity: 9 kWh Battery Capacity : 1,6 kWh Operating range: 500 km in NEDC Operating range : 500 km in NEDC

 Up to now, only very few vehicle models with fuel cell are offered in small series

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 41 IAV´s Fuel Cell Test Station

Main features

. Fuel Cell Test station for  FC-Stack up to 180kW elec. power  FC-System up to 150kW elec. Power . 1000V and 1000A . Development of components, stack and system . Dynamic operation . Suitable for development & durability tasks . Tests at ambient temperature . Link to IAV´s Fuel Cell Vehicle simulation

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 42 Comparison FCEV vs. BEV Costs per kWh 12. Symposium Hybrid-12. Symposium u. schweig, 2015 schweig, enantriebs, enantriebs, zeuge, Braun Source: C. Mohrdieck, Technologie-Mohrdieck, Source: C. und Kostenposition des Brennstoffzell Elektrofahr

 Costs per energy content decrease for a FCEV with increasing operating range. For a BEV, they stay nearly constant (costs dominated by the battery)  According to above study, from 350 km operating range a FCEV is less expensive than a BEV

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 43 Hydrogen Infrastructure Availability of H2 Filling Stations in Central Europe Sourece: www.netinform.net

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 44 Hydrogen Infrastructure Availability of H2 Filling Stations in Central Europe

Futre:

H2 refuelling station in France 29 H2 stations planned by 2020 Sourece: www.netinform.net

 The number of H2 filling stations is still very low

 Building up a network of H2 filling stations can be realized much faster than a nation-wide e-charging infrastructure

 However, the costs for a H2 filling station are ~1 Mio. Euro

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 45 Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility

Content

Introduction – where are we today ?

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 46 Life Cycle Assessment (LCA): Comparison of Drive Concepts

Comparison of drive concepts (200.000 km mileage) using fossil-based and carbon- neutral energy sources. Source: IAV, Automotion, Automotion, Source: IAV, 02/2016

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 47 Life Cycle Assessment (LCA): Comparison of Drive Concepts

Comparison of drive concepts (200.000 km mileage) using fossil-based and carbon-neutral energy sources.

. Battery production is very energy-intensive. Depending on the electricity-mix,

CO2 emissions for battery production can be quite high . Comparing conventional vs. electric powertrains, different LCA-studies show different

results. This is caused by uncertainties of the CO2 emissions for the battery production, and the values that were used for battery size and vehicle mileage in the simulation . Using e-fuels, a passenger car with combustion engine can theoretically reach very low

CO2 life cycle values. However, there are still local emissions from the car and much energy is used for e-fuel production

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 48 Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility

Content

Introduction – where are we today ?

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 49 BEV & PHEV Vehicles Sales Numbers 2010 - 2016

BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle PHEV = Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Source: IEA, Global EV Outlook Source: 2017, Global EV IEA, 2017

 The market share of BEV and PHEV vehicles is still relatively small in the main automotive markets – however is increasing steadily  The high market share in Norway and the Netherlands is based on high incentives for BEV and PHEV vehicles. The governmental funding of a Tesla X model in Norway is 60.000 Euro.

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 50 BEV & PHEV Vehicles Impact of Incentives

Market share of BEV and PHEV sales in Denmark Source: European Alternative Fuels Observatory, Observatory, Source: European 2018 Fuels Alternative

 Incentives are still the main driving factor for the sales of BEV and PHEV  The EV market is still very fragile. In case of stopping of incentives, a significant reduction in EV sales numbers can be seen  The share of EV‘s in Denmark went down from 2.4% to 0.4% after stopping  Annual sales of Tesla vehicles in Hong Kong decreased from 3.000 to near 0 after the incentives were stopped

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 51 Future Powertrain Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Mobility

Content

Introduction – where are we today ?

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 52 Outlook: Ways towards a CO2-free Mobility Future Challenges

Combustion Engine & Battery Electric Vehicle Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) (BEV) (FCEV)

To Do: To Do: To Do: . Increase production of fuels . Reduction of battery costs . Reduction of fuel cell costs without CO -impact (e-fuels) 2 . Increase vehicle range . Increase availability of fuel- . Make e-fuels available at petrol . Increase availability of cell vehicles stations electrical vehicles . Build up of H2 infrastructure . Increase share of green electricity . Build up of charging infrastructure

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 53 Conclusion

. A carbon-free mobility is necessary and feasible . The required powertrain technologies for BEV’s and FCEV’s are developed and available . Main obstacles are still the missing charging infrastructure, the real-life driving distances of BEV’s and the high production costs . In the end, the customer decides how quick and how many BEV’s and FCEV’s will be on the road – however the government and the cities can make it attractive. A dense network of charging stations, tax exemptions and other incentives can push this . Nevertheless, the transition to a totally carbon- free mobility will not happen within a few years. There will still be vehicles with combustion engines on the market for the next 10-15 years. However, with increasing availability of e-fuels,

the CO2-footprint of these engines will be less

IAV S.A.S.U. - 03/2018 - R. Saliba 54 Thank You

Dr. Ralph Saliba IAV S.A.S.U. 4 Rue Georges Guynemer, 78280 Guyancourt Phone +33 6 16 22 23 19 [email protected] www.iav.com

IAV 03/2018 TP-T CvE Status: draft, confidential 55