AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL

The Downtown Schenectady Study Area

City of Schenectady Schenectady County, New York

March, 2020

Conducted by ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. P.O. Box 4907 Clinton, New Jersey 08809

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Post Office Box 4907 Clinton, New Jersey 08809 908 735-6336 [email protected] • www.ZVA.cc

Residential Market Analysis Across the Urban-to-Rural Transect

STUDY CONTENTS

An Analysis of Residential Market Potential The Downtown Schenectady Study Area 1 Introduction 1 —MAP OF STUDY AREA — 2 Summary of Findings 3 —THE DRAW AREAS — 3 —Average Annual Market Potential For The Downtown Schenectady Study Area— 4 —Target Markets— 6 —The Market Context— 9 Multi-Family Rental Properties 9 Multi-Family and Single-Family Attached For-Sale Properties 11 —The Optimum Market Position: The Downtown Schenectady Study Area— 12 Multi-Family For-Rent Distribution Distribution By Rent Range 12 Multi-Family For-Sale Distribution Distribution By Price Range 13 Single-Family Attached For-Sale Distribution Distribution By Price Range 14 —Optimum Market Position— 16 —Market Capture— 18 —Building and Unit Types— 20 Supporting Tables 22 Table 1: Average Annual Market Potential Table 2: Average Annual Market Potential By Lifestage And Housing Type Table 3: Summary Of Selected Rental Properties Table 4: Summary of Selected For-Sale Single Family Attached Properties Table 5: Target Groups For New Multi-Family For-Rent Table 6: Target Groups For New Multi-Family For-Sale Table 7: Target Groups For New Single-Family Attached For-Sale Table 8: Optimum Market Position

Assumptions and Limitations Copyright o

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Post Office Box 4907 Clinton, New Jersey 08809 908 735-6336 [email protected] • www.ZVA.cc

Residential Market Analysis Across the Urban-to-Rural Transect

AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL

The Downtown Schenectady Study Area City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York

March, 2020

INTRODUCTION

The analysis to determine the market potential for new rental and for-sale housing units that could be developed within the Downtown Schenectady Study Area in the City of Schenectady, New York included: delineation of the draw areas; determination of the depth of the potential market for new and existing housing units in the city; determination of the target households and the target residential mix corresponding to the housing preferences of those target households; and the optimum market position for new market-rate rental and for-sale residential units in the Study Area.

The depth and breadth of the potential market for new and existing housing units within the City of Schenectady have been derived from the housing preferences and financial capacities of the draw area households, identified through Zimmerman/Volk Associates’ proprietary target market methodology and extensive experience with urban development and redevelopment.

The boundaries of the Study Area are irregular and include the Mohawk River to the northwest; Erie Boulevard and Seneca Street to the north; railroad tracks, Park Place, Nott Terrace, and Veeder Avenue to the east; Hamilton Street and Interstate 890 to the southwest; and State Street, Erie Boulevard, and railroad tracks to the west. A map of the Study Area follows this page.

AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL Page 2 The Downtown Schenectady Study Area The City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York March, 2020 DRI Boundary

West: Broadway/ Jay St East: Lafayette St North: The Mohawk River South: Smith St

Boundary lines include both sides of the street as shown

In brief, this study determined: • Where the potential renters and buyers of new and existing housing units in the City of Schenectady and the Study Area are likely to move from (the draw areas); • How many households have the potential to move within and to the city and to the Study Area each year if appropriate housing units were to be made available (depth and breadth of the market); • Who the households are that represent the potential market for new units in the Study Area (the target markets); • What their housing preferences are in aggregate (rental or ownership, multi-family or single- family); • What their current housing alternatives are (rental and for-sale residential development in the Schenectady market area); • What the target households are currently able to pay to rent or purchase new dwelling units in the Study Area (base rents and prices); and • How quickly the new units will lease or sell (absorption forecasts).

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SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

—THE DRAW AREAS —

Taxpayer migration data obtained from the Internal Revenue Service provide the framework for the delineation of the draw areas—the principal counties of origin for households that are likely to move to Schenectady County and the City of Schenectady. These data are maintained at the county and “county equivalent” level by the Internal Revenue Service and provide a clear representation of mobility patterns. The IRS migration data have been supplemented by migration and mobility data for both the City of Schenectady and Schenectady County from the most recent American Community Survey. Based on the combined migration and mobility data, then, the draw areas for the city and the Downtown Study Area have been delineated as follows: • The local draw area, covering households moving within the City of Schenectady. • The county draw area, covering households with the potential to move to the City of Schenectady from the balance of Schenectady County. • The regional draw area, covering households with the potential to move to the City of Schenectady from Albany, Saratoga, and Rensselaer Counties. • The national draw area, covering households with the potential to move to the City of Schenectady from all other U.S. cities and counties.

The distribution of the draw areas as a percentage of the annual potential market for new and existing housing units in the City of Schenectady is shown on the following table:

Average Annual Market Potential by Draw Area City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York City of Schenectady (Local Draw Area): 47.1% Balance of Schenectady County (County Draw Area): 6.1% Albany, Saratoga, and Rensselaer Counties (Regional Draw Area): 24.1% Balance of US (National Draw Area): 22.7% Total: 100.0%

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2020.

An annual average of 3,960 households have the potential to move within or to the city each year over the next five years.

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—AVERAGE ANNUAL MARKET POTENTIAL FOR THE DOWNTOWN SCHENECTADY STUDY AREA—

The target market methodology identifies those households with a preference for living in downtowns and walkable neighborhoods. After eliminating those segments of the potential city-wide market that have preferences for new or existing housing in suburban or low density areas, the distribution of draw area market potential for new and existing housing units in the Study Area is summarized as follows:

Average Annual Market Potential by Draw Area THE DOWNTOWN SCHENECTADY STUDY AREA City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York City of Schenectady (Local Draw Area): 33.3% Balance of Schenectady County (County Draw Area): 10.0% Albany, Saratoga, and Rensselaer Counties (Regional Draw Area): 25.4% Balance of US (National Draw Area): 31.3% Total: 100.0%

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2020.

Based on the target market analysis, then, an annual average of 1,200 younger singles and couples, empty nesters and retirees, and compact families represent the annual potential market for new and existing housing units of every kind within the Study Area each year over the next five years (see Table 1 following the text). The tenure and housing preferences of those 1,200 draw area households are shown on the following table:

Average Annual Market Potential by Tenure/Housing Type Propensities THE DOWNTOWN SCHENECTADY STUDY AREA City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York

NUMBER OF PERCENT HOUSING TYPE HOUSEHOLDS OF TOTAL Multi-family for-rent 676 56.4% (lofts/apartments, leaseholder) Multi-family for-sale 100 8.3% (lofts/apartments, condo/co-op ownership) Single-family attached for-sale 174 14.5% (townhouses/live-work, fee-simple/ condominium ownership) Single-family detached for-sale 250 20.8% (houses, fee-simple ownership) Total 1,200 100.0%

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2020.

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A 56 percent majority of the 1,200 target households comprise the market for rental dwelling units; an increasing percentage are renters by choice; many, however, would prefer to own but cannot afford the type of housing they want in neighborhoods where they would consider living. Younger people in particular are challenged by the burden of significant education debt as well as lack of an adequate down payment.

The remaining 44 percent of the market would choose some form of ownership housing (comparable to the current estimated homeownership rate in the city of approximately 43 percent). Nearly 48 percent of the annual potential ownership market would prefer single-family detached units— currently, an estimated 37 percent of the existing housing stock in Schenectady is comprised of single- family detached houses. The remaining 52 percent of the ownership market would choose for-sale multi-family units (condominium/co-operative units) or single-family attached (duplex/townhouse units).

To maintain residential densities appropriate in the core of the Downtown Study Area for optimal support of existing and potential non-residential uses, residential development should concentrate on higher-density housing types, created either through the adaptive re-use of existing buildings or through new construction, including: • Rental lofts and apartments (multi-family for-rent); • For-sale lofts and apartments (multi-family for-sale); and • Townhouses and rowhouses (single-family attached for-sale).

Excluding households with preferences for single-family houses, then, an annual average market potential of 950 households currently living in the defined draw areas represent the pool of potential renters and purchasers of new and existing housing units within the Downtown Study Area each year over the next five years.

Based on the tenure and housing preferences of those 950 draw area households, the distribution of rental multi-family, for-sale multi-family, and for-sale single-family attached housing types is shown on the table following this page.

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Average Annual Market Potential THE DOWNTOWN SCHENECTADY STUDY AREA City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York

...... HOUSEHOLDS ...... HOUSING TYPE NUMBER PERCENT Multi-family for-rent 676 71.2% (lofts/apartments, leaseholder) Multi-family for-sale 100 10.5% (lofts/apartments, condo/co-op ownership) Single-family attached for-sale 174 18.3% (townhouses/live-work, fee-simple/ condominium ownership) Total 950 100.0%

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2020.

—TARGET MARKETS—

The aftermath of the housing crash has seen a measurable shift in market preferences from home ownership to rental dwelling units, particularly among younger households, yielding a higher share of consumer preference for multi-family rentals even among relatively affluent consumers than would have been typical a decade ago. At the same time, there has been a significant shift in neighborhood preferences from single-use subdivisions toward mixed-use, walkable neighborhoods.

These changes have been driven by the convergence of the preferences of the two largest generations in the history of America: the Baby Boomers (currently estimated at 72.5 million), older singles and couples born between 1946 and 1964, and the estimated 89.7 million Millennials, younger singles and couples who were born from 1977 to 1996 and, in 2010, surpassed the Boomers in population. The convergence of two generations of this size—simultaneously reaching a point when urban housing matches their lifestage—is unprecedented.

In addition to their shared preference for walkable urban living, the Boomers and Millennials are changing housing markets in multiple ways. In contrast to the traditional family (married couples with children) that comprised the typical post-war American household, Boomers and Millennials are households of predominantly singles and couples. As a result, nationally, the home-buying market now contains more than 63 percent one- and two-person households, and the 37 percent of the homebuyers that could be categorized as family households are equally likely to be non- traditional as traditional families. One consequence of this evolution is that mixed-income

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development is now more likely to succeed than when suburban preferences dominated the housing market.

As determined by the target market analysis, and reflecting national trends, the annual potential market—represented by lifestage—for new rental and ownership housing units in the Downtown Study Area is shown on the following table (see also Table 2 following the text):

Annual Market Potential By Lifestage And Housing Type THE DOWNTOWN SCHENECTADY STUDY AREA City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York

PERCENT . . . MULTI-FAMILY . . . SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSEHOLD TYPE OF TOTAL FOR-RENT FOR-SALE ATTACHED Empty-Nesters & Retirees 27% 24% 37% 34% Traditional & Non-Traditional Families 16% 12% 13% 33% Younger Singles & Couples 57% 64% 50% 33%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2020.

Younger singles and couples represent 57 percent of the market for new dwelling units in the Downtown Study Area. The younger market includes a variety of white-collar professionals, young entrepreneurs, artists, and knowledge workers, as well as entry-level office employees, waiters and waitresses, and other retail workers. These younger singles and couples prefer to live in downtowns and urban neighborhoods for their diversity, and for the availability of employment, entertainment, and cultural opportunities within walking distance of their residences. Among the other principal factors in the largest share of the market held by younger singles and couples are: • Their higher mobility rates—young people tend to move much more frequently than older people; • Their strong preference for rental apartments, in part because they have not saved sufficient funds for a down payment, often due to heavy student debt burdens, and in part because the collapse of the housing market during the Great Recession has made many of them skeptical about the value of owning versus renting; and • The lower mobility of empty nesters and retirees.

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Nearly 37 percent of the younger singles and couples that represent the market for new housing units in the Downtown Study Area would be moving from elsewhere in the city; just 3.6 percent would be moving from the elsewhere in Schenectady County; nearly 29 percent would be moving from Albany, Saratoga, and Rensselaer Counties; and approximately 31 percent would be moving from another county in the United States.

At 27 percent of the annual potential market for new housing units in the Downtown Schenectady Study Area, older households (empty nesters and retirees) represent the second largest share of the market. Most of these households have adult children who no longer live in the family home; many are enthusiastic participants in community life and are still actively involved in well-paying careers in the banking, legal and medical professions. A smaller number are retired with incomes mainly derived solely from social security and small pensions.

Just over a quarter of the empty nesters and retirees would be moving from elsewhere within the City of Schenectady; 17.6 percent would be moving from elsewhere in Schenectady County; 27 percent from one of the regional draw area counties of Albany, Saratoga, or Rensselaer; and the remaining 29.7 percent would be moving from elsewhere in the U.S.

Family-oriented households represent just 16 percent of the market for new dwelling units in the Downtown Study Area. A portion of the family-oriented households are non-traditional families, notably single parents with one to three children. Non-traditional families, which, starting in the 1990s, have become an increasingly larger proportion of all U.S. households, encompass a wide range of family households, from a single mother or father with one or more children, an adult taking care of younger siblings, a grandparent responsible for grandchildren, to same-sex couples with children.

Over 36 percent of the family households are already living in the City of Schenectady; just under 13 percent would be moving from Schenectady County; 16.4 percent from one of the counties in the regional draw area; and the remaining 34.5 percent would be moving from elsewhere in the U.S.

APPENDIX THREE, TARGET MARKET DESCRIPTIONS, contains detailed descriptions of each of these target market groups and is provided in a separate document. The METHODOLOGY, APPENDICES ONE AND TWO,

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TARGET MARKET TABLES document describes how the target market groups for the Downtown Schenectady Study Area have been determined.

—THE MARKET CONTEXT—

Summary information for existing rental and for-sale properties located in the Downtown Schenectady market area is provided as follows: for rental properties, see Table 3; for listings of for- sale multi-family and single-family attached properties, see Table 4 following the text. There are more than 1,000 dwelling units in the Downtown Study Area that have been built and put into service since 2012, and another 260-plus that are under construction.

Walk Score, a number between 0 and 100 denoting the walkability of a specific address or neighborhood, has been included in the tables. Although Walk Score measures only distance, and metrics such as intersection density and block lengths to grade the walkability of a specific address or neighborhood, it has nevertheless grown in importance as a value criterion. Walk Scores above 90 indicate a “Walker’s Paradise,” where daily errands do not require a car. Walk Scores between 70 and 90 are considered to be very walkable, where most errands can be accomplished on foot, and Walk Scores between 50 and 69 are regarded as somewhat walkable, where some errands can be accomplished on foot. Walk Scores below 50 indicate that most or almost all errands require an automobile.

The impact on housing values of walkability as calculated by Walk Score only begins to be measurable when Walk Scores reach 70 or above. With the exception of River House, located within developing Mohawk Harbor district, all of the properties listed on Table 3 have Walk Scores of 70 or more, and most score above 80.

—Multi-Family Rental Properties—

Table 3 provides information, where available, on 13 properties in the Downtown Schenectady market area, covering more than 600 apartments, and is summarized as follows:

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—Studio Units (Two properties)— • Rents for studios in the two properties that have them are listed at $735 per month for a 411-square-foot studio at Kelsey Commons on Cambridge Road ($1.79 per square foot) and from $1,050 to $1,200 per month for studios containing 651 to 674 square feet ($1.61 to $1.78 per square foot) at River House, on Harborside Drive.

—One-Bedroom Units (Nine properties)— • Rents for one-bedroom apartments in the Downtown Schenectady market area range from $835 per month at One 11 Liberty Street Apartments to $1,700 per month at River House. • One-bedroom units range in size from 542 square feet at Kelsey Commons to 1,067 square feet at 242 Broadway Apartments. • One-bedroom rents per square foot range between $1.13 at One 11 Liberty Street Apartments to $1.80 at both Kelsey Commons and Electric City Apartments on State Street. —Two-Bedroom Units (11 properties)— • Rents for two-bedroom apartments in the Downtown Schenectady market area start at $1,110 per month for a two-bedroom/one bath apartment at Kelsey Commons, up to $3,300 per month for two bedrooms and two baths at River House. • Two-bedrooms range in size from 760 square feet at the student-oriented College Suites at Washington Square, to nearly 2,200 square feet for two bedrooms and two- and-a-half baths at Electric City. • Rents per square foot for two-bedrooms range between $1.09 at the Metropolitan Lofts on State Street and $2.24 at College Suites at Washington Square.

—Three-Bedroom Units (One property)— • Three-bedroom/two-bath apartments at Kelsey Commons contain 815 square feet and rent for $1,295 to $1,345 per month ($1.59 to $1.65 per square foot).

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—Four-Bedroom Units (One property)— • Four-bedroom/two-bath apartments at the student-oriented College Suites at Washington Square contain 1,306 square feet and rent for $2,980 per month ($2.28 per square foot).

Where information was available, most of the rental properties included in the survey were either in the lease-up period or essentially fully-occupied—at or above functional full occupancy (less than five percent vacancy rate). Some of the smaller properties (fewer than 50 units) show lower occupancy rates, since units vacant during turnover have a higher percentage impact. Most of the properties provide limited community amenities, typically, clubhouses and fitness centers.

—Multi-Family and Single Family Attached For-Sale Properties—

Table 4 provides pricing and unit sizes and configuration information for the limited number of newly-constructed condominium and townhouses that were on the market in the Schenectady market area as of March 2020. Asking prices of the 24 condominiums comprising Phase Two of Amadore Homes’ Yates Farm on Grayson Place in Glenville range between $230,900 and $243,195 for 1,273- square-foot two-bedroom/two-bath units ($181 to $191 per square foot), with three-bedroom/two- bath units containing 1,645 to 1,841 square feet of living space priced at $249,900 to $258,700 ($136 to $157 per square foot).

In Schenectady, 15 townhouses are being marketed on Barrett Street by Live In Schenectady. The two-bedroom/two-and-a-half bath units contain 1,785 to 1,841 square feet and range in price from $260,900 to $269,900 ($146 to $153 per square foot). The most expensive units currently on the market are the Townhomes at Mohawk Harbor, developed by the Galesi Group. The 15 two- and three-bedroom units contain 1,899 to 2,320 square feet and are priced between $525,000 ($276 per square foot and $675,000 ($291 per square foot).

Two resale condominiums were listed at the Riverside Condominiums on Front Street: a two- bedroom/one-and-a-half bath apartment with 1,228 square feet of living space priced at $177,500 ($145 per square foot), and a two-bedroom/one-and-a-half bath unit containing 1,225 square feet with an asking price of $186,500 ($152 per square foot).

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—OPTIMUM MARKET POSITION: THE DOWNTOWN SCHENECTADY STUDY AREA—

As noted above under AVERAGE ANNUAL MARKET POTENTIAL FOR DOWNTOWN SCHENECTADY STUDY AREA, the proposed price points for new rental and ownership housing units that could be developed within the Downtown are derived from the income and financial capabilities of the 950 target draw area households. The incomes of these households range from approximately $50,000 to more than $150,000 per year. Of those 950 target households, 676 households (71.2 percent) are potential renters, 100 (10.5 percent) are potential purchasers of condominiums, and 174 (18.3 percent) are potential purchasers of townhouses. (See again Table 1.)

—Multi-Family For-Rent Distribution by Rent Range—

The number of households able to afford the specified rent ranges detailed on the following table was determined by calculating a monthly rental payment excluding utilities and ranging between 25 and 30 percent of annual gross income. (Although it is quite possible that many households will pay up to 40 percent of their annual gross incomes in rent, HUD recommends that a tenant pay no more than 30 percent of gross income for rent including utilities.)

An annual average of 676 households per year represent the target markets for newly-constructed rental housing units within the Downtown Schenectady Study Area, yielding the rent distribution shown on the table following this page (see also Table 5 following the text).

New Multi-Family For-Rent Distribution by Rent Range THE DOWNTOWN SCHENECTADY STUDY AREA City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York

MONTHLY HOUSEHOLDS RENT RANGE PER YEAR PERCENTAGE $750–$1,000 78 11.5% $1,000–$1,250 106 15.7% $1,250–$1,500 114 16.8% $1,500–$1,750 136 20.1% $1,750–$2,000 135 20.0% $2,000–$2,250 47 7.0% $2,250–$2,500 24 3.6% $2,500–$2,750 17 2.5% $2,750 and up 19 2.8% Total: 676 100.0% SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2020.

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• The largest group of target renters are younger singles and couples, at almost 64 percent of the market for new rental units within the Downtown Study Area. Less than one percent have careers that provide them with the financial capacity to afford rents at or above $2,250 per month. Approximately half of the younger singles and couples represent the market for units with rents between $1,500 and $2,250 per month, and the remaining 49 percent of the younger cohort would only be able to support rents between $750 and $1,500 per month. • Empty nesters and retirees represent 24 percent of the market for new rental units within the Downtown Study Area. Just under 26 percent of the target empty nester and retiree market have the incomes that enable them to support rents above $2,250 per month. The largest group, at nearly 39 percent, represents the market for new units with rents between $1,500 and $2,250 per month. Another 35.2 percent can support rents between $750 and $1,500 per month. • Traditional and non-traditional families make up the remaining 12.1 percent of the market for new rental units within Downtown Schenectady. Almost 20 percent of the family market can afford rents above $2,250 per month. Just under 44 percent can support rents between $1,500 and $2,250 per month. The remaining 37 percent can only afford rents between $750 and $1,500 per month.

—Multi-Family For-Sale Distribution by Price Range—

An annual average of 100 households represent the target markets for newly-constructed for-sale multi-family housing units within the Downtown Schenectady Study Area (as shown on Table 6 following the text). Supportable price points have been determined by assuming a down payment of 10 percent, and a monthly mortgage payment, excluding taxes and utilities, that does not exceed 25 percent of gross income for each of the 100 annual households that represent the annual potential for-sale multi-family market, yielding the distribution shown on the table on the following page.

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New Multi-Family For-Sale Distribution by Price Range THE DOWNTOWN SCHENECTADY STUDY AREA City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York

PRICE HOUSEHOLDS RANGE PER YEAR PERCENTAGE $200,000–$250,000 29 29.0% $250,000–$300,000 26 26.0% $300,000–$350,000 19 19.0% $350,000–$400,000 8 8.0% $400,000–$450,000 10 10.0% $450,000 and up 8 8.0% Total: 100 100.0% SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2020. • Younger singles and couples comprise half the market for new for-sale multi-family units (condominiums) within the Downtown Study Area. Only two percent of the younger singles and couples have the income and assets to purchase new condominiums with base prices over $400,000. Thirty percent would be in the market for new units priced between $300,000 and $400,000, and the majority, 68 percent, can only afford new condominiums with base prices between $200,000 and $300,000. • Empty nesters and retirees represent over a third of the market for new condominiums within Downtown Schenectady. Over 35 percent of the empty nesters and retirees could afford new units priced over $400,000. Another 22 percent would be in the market for new condominiums with base prices between $300,000 and $400,000. A plurality of 43.2 percent could afford new condominiums priced between $200,000 and $300,000. • Traditional and non-traditional families are the smallest market segment at 13 percent of the market for new condominiums in the Downtown Study Area. Just under 31 percent have the income and assets to purchase new condominiums priced over $400,000. Another 31 percent of the family households would be in the market for new condominiums with base prices between $300,000 and $400,000. The remaining 38.5 would only be in the market for new units priced between $200,000 and $300,000.

—Single-Family Attached For-Sale Distribution by Price Range—

An annual average of 174 households represent the target markets for newly-constructed single- family attached housing units (townhouses) within the Downtown Schenectady Study Area (as

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shown on Table 7 following the text). As with the for-sale condominiums, supportable price points for the townhouses have been determined by assuming a down payment of 10 percent, and a monthly mortgage payment, excluding taxes and utilities, that does not exceed 25 percent of gross income for each of the 174 households that represent the annual potential townhouse market, yielding the distribution shown on the following table:

New Single-Family Attached For-Sale Distribution by Price Range THE DOWNTOWN SCHENECTADY STUDY AREA City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York

PRICE HOUSEHOLDS RANGE PER YEAR PERCENTAGE $200,000–$250,000 36 20.7% $250,000–$300,000 50 28.8% $300,000–$350,000 40 23.0% $350,000–$400,000 12 6.9% $400,000–$450,000 18 10.3% $450,000 and up 18 10.3% Total: 174 100.0% SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2020.

• At a 33.9 percent share, the largest group of target buyers of townhouses in the Downtown Schenectady Study Area is comprised of empty nesters and retirees. Over a third of the empty nesters and retirees represent the market for townhouses with base prices above $400,000. Another 22 percent could afford to purchase townhouses with base prices ranging between $300,000 and $400,000, and the remaining 44 percent are able to purchase units priced between $200,000 and $300,000. • Traditional and non-traditional families comprise the next largest share, at 33.3 percent of the market for new townhouses within the Downtown. Approximately 28 percent of the target traditional and non-traditional families have the income and assets that enable them to purchase new townhouses with base prices above $400,000. The remainder of the family market is evenly split between new townhouses priced between $200,000 and $300,000 and between $300,000 and $400,000. • The smallest group of target townhouse buyers are younger singles and couples, at 32.8 percent of the market for new for-sale single-family attached units within Downtown Schenectady. A clear majority—68.4 percent—represent the market for new townhouses

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with base prices between $200,000 and $300,000. The remaining approximately 32 percent of the younger households are able to purchase new townhouses with base prices between $300,000 and $400,000.

—OPTIMUM MARKET POSITION—

There are a number of amenities that contribute to the desirability of living in the Downtown Schenectady Study Area: • Proximity to the Mohawk River, providing a very attractive water amenity for development around Mohawk Harbor; • Attractions such as Proctors Theater, a destination for major Broadway shows, film festivals, and special events; Bow-Tie Cinemas; the Museum of Innovation and Science; and the Schenectady Civic Playhouse; • Diverse shops and restaurants, a brewery, and, in Mohawk Harbor, the Rivers Casino and resort; • Headquarters of MVP Health Care, Logic Technology, Price Chopper, as well as the location of multiple businesses and services; • The site of many public institutions, including City Hall, the Public Library, the Capital District YMCA, and the U.S. Post Office; • The recently-constructed Amtrak rail station, with service to New York City and Montreal, among other destinations; and • Educational institutions, including the campus of Union College; the Capital Region Campus of Clarkson University; and the Schenectady County Community College.

As detailed at the beginning of this section, an average of 676 potential renters, 100 potential condominium purchasers and 174 potential purchasers of townhouses comprise the annual potential market for new rental and ownership housing units in the Downtown Schenectady Study Area each year over the next five years.

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL Page 17 The Downtown Schenectady Study Area The City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York March, 2020

The optimum market position for new housing in the Downtown Study Area has therefore been developed based on a variety of factors, including but not limited to: • The tenure and housing preferences, financial capabilities, and lifestages of the target households; • The assets and amenities located in the Downtown; and • Current market area residential market dynamics.

Based on these factors, the optimum market position for new rental and for-sale housing within the Downtown Schenectady Study Area is summarized on the following table (see also Table 8 following the text for greater detail):

Optimum Market Position THE DOWNTOWN SCHENECTADY STUDY AREA City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York

UNIT RENT/PRICE UNIT SIZE BASE RENT/PRICE HOUSING TYPE RANGE RANGE PER SQ. FT. MULTI-FAMILY FOR-RENT—85% Lofts $800 to 400 to $1.56 to $1,250 800 sf $2.00 Apartments $1,125 to 550 to $1.67 to $2,250 1,350 sf $2.05

MULTI-FAMILY FOR-SALE—5.7% Condominiums $175,000 to 850 to $182 to $300,000 1,650 sf $206

SINGLE-FAMILY ATTACHED FOR-SALE—9.3% Townhouses $275,000 to 1,350 to $198 to $395,000 2,000 sf $204

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2020.

Based on the mix of unit types, sizes, and rents/prices outlined in the optimum market position, the weighted average rents and prices for each of the housing types are shown on the table following this page.

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL Page 18 The Downtown Schenectady Study Area The City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York March, 2020

Weighted Average Base Rents/Prices and Size Ranges THE DOWNTOWN SCHENECTADY STUDY AREA City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York

WEIGHTED AVERAGE HOUSING WEIGHTED AVERAGE WEIGHTED AVERAGE BASE RENTS/PRICES TYPE BASE RENTS/PRICES UNIT SIZE PER SQ. FT. MULTI-FAMILY FOR-RENT Lofts $1,040 585 sf $1.78 psf Apartments $1,478 800 sf $1.85 psf MULTI-FAMILY FOR-SALE Condominiums $226,750 1,180 sf $192 psf SINGLE-FAMILY ATTACHED FOR-SALE Townhouses $337,250 1,668 sf $202 psf

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2020.

The proposed prices are in year 2020 dollars and are exclusive of location or floor premiums and consumer-added options or upgrades. Location will have a significant impact on values, ranging from as much as a 10 percent premium on new properties located in the most walkable and amenity- laden areas to a reduction of up to five percent on new properties located in auto-dependent, less walkable parts of the Downtown.

—MARKET CAPTURE—

Based on more than 32 years’ experience in hundreds of markets across the country, Zimmerman/Volk Associates forecasts that new multi-family rental development within the Downtown Study Area should be able to achieve an annual capture of 20 to 25 percent of the annual average number of potential renters each year over the next five years.

New for-sale multi-family and single-family attached development should be able to achieve an annual capture of 10 to 15 percent of the annual average number of potential buyers of condominiums and townhouses each year over the next five years.

Based on these capture rates, the Downtown Schenectady Study Area could potentially absorb between 162 and 211 new rental and for-sale housing units each year over the next five years, as shown on the table following this page.

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL Page 19 The Downtown Schenectady Study Area The City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York March, 2020

Annual Capture of Market Potential THE DOWNTOWN SCHENECTADY STUDY AREA City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York

NUMBER OF CAPTURE NUMBER OF HOUSING TYPE HOUSEHOLDS RATE NEW UNITS Multi-Family For-Rent 676 20 - 25% 135 - 170 Multi-Family For-Sale 100 10 - 15% 10 - 15 Single-Family Attached For-Sale 174 10 – 15% 17 - 26 Total 950 162 - 211

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2020.

Over five years, the Downtown Study Area could potentially absorb 675 to 850 new rental units, 50 to 75 new condominiums, and 85 to 130 new townhouses—a total of 810 to 1,055 new market-rate housing units.

These capture rates are within the target market methodology’s parameters of feasibility.

NOTE: Target market capture rates are a unique and highly-refined measure of feasibility. Target market capture rates are not equivalent to—and should not be confused with—penetration rates or traffic conversion rates. The target market capture rate is derived by dividing the annual forecast absorption—in aggregate and by housing type—by the number of households that have the potential to purchase or rent new housing within a specified area in a given year. The penetration rate is derived by dividing the total number of dwelling units planned for a property by the total number of draw area households, sometimes qualified by income. The traffic conversion rate is derived by dividing the total number of buyers or renters by the total number of prospects that have visited a site.

Because the prospective market for a location is more precisely defined, target market capture rates are higher than the more grossly-derived penetration rates. However, the resulting higher capture rates are well within the range of prudent feasibility.

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL Page 20 The Downtown Schenectady Study Area The City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York March, 2020

BUILDING AND UNIT TYPES

—MULTI-FAMILY BUILDINGS—

• Courtyard Apartment Building: In new construction, an urban, pedestrian-oriented equivalent to conventional garden apartments. An urban courtyard building is three or more stories, which can include non-residential uses on the ground floor. The building should be built to the sidewalk edge and, to provide privacy and a sense of security, the first floor should be elevated significantly above the sidewalk.

• Loft Apartment Building: Either adaptive re-use of older warehouse or manufacturing buildings or a new-construction building type inspired by those buildings. The new- construction version typically has double-loaded corridors.

• Mansion Apartment Building: A two- to three-story flexible-use structure with a street façade resembling a large detached or attached house (hence, “mansion”). The attached version of the mansion, typically built to a sidewalk on the front lot line, is most appropriate for downtown locations. The building can accommodate a variety of uses—from rental or for-sale apartments, professional offices, any of these uses over ground-floor retail, a bed and breakfast inn, or a large single-family detached house—and its physical structure complements other buildings within a neighborhood.

Parking behind the mansion buildings can be either alley-loaded, or front-loaded served by shared drives.

Mansion buildings should be strictly regulated in form, but flexible in use. However, flexibility in use is somewhat constrained by the handicapped accessibility regulations in both the Fair Housing Act and the Americans with Disabilities Act.

• Mixed-Use Building: A pedestrian-oriented building, either attached or free-standing, with apartments and/or offices over flexible ground floor uses that can range from retail to office to residential.

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL Page 21 The Downtown Schenectady Study Area The City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York March, 2020

—MULTI-FAMILY UNIT TYPES—

• Lofts: Unit interiors typically have high ceilings, are fully finished and partitioned into individual rooms. Units may also contain architectural elements reminiscent of hard lofts, such as exposed ceiling beams and ductwork, concrete floors and industrial finishes, particularly if the building is an adaptive re-use of an existing industrial structure.

• Apartments: More conventionally-finished single-level units, typically with completely- partitioned rooms. Trim, interior doors, kitchens and baths are often fitted out with more residential, higher-end finishes and fixtures than in lofts.

—SINGLE-FAMILY ATTACHED—

• Rowhouses/Townhouses: Similar in form to conventional suburban townhouses except that the garage—either attached or detached—is located to the rear of the unit and accessed from an alley or auto court. Unlike conventional townhouses, urban rowhouses and townhouses conform to the pattern of streets, typically with shallow front-yard setbacks. o

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Table 1

Average Annual Market Potential Annual Average Number Of Draw Area Households With The Potential To Move To The Downtown Study Area Each Year Over The Next Five Years The Downtown Schenectady Study Area City of Schenectacy, Schenectady County, New York

City of Schenectady; Balance of Schenectady County; Regional Draw Area; Balance of the U.S. Draw Areas

Annual Target Market Households With The Potential To Rent/Purchase In the City of Schenectacy, Schenectady County, New York 3,960

Annual Target Market Households With The Potential To Rent/Purchase In The Downtown Schenectady Study Area 950

Average Annual Market Potential Multi- Single- ...... Family ...... Family ...... Attached . . . . Detached . . For-Rent For-Sale All Ranges All Ranges Total

Total Households: 676 100 174 250 1,200 {Mix Distribution}: 56.4% 8.3% 14.5% 20.8% 100.0%

Average Annual Market Potential (Excluding Single-Family Detached) Multi- Single- ...... Family ...... Family . . . . . Attached . . For-Rent For-Sale All Ranges Total

Total Households: 676 100 174 950 {Mix Distribution}: 71.2% 10.5% 18.3% 100.0%

NOTE: Reference Appendix One, Tables 1 Through 11.

SOURCE: Claritas, Inc.; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. Table 2

Average Annual Market Potential By Lifestage And Housing Type Annual Average Number Of Draw Area Households With The Potential To Move To The Downtown Study Area Each Year Over The Next Five Years The Downtown Schenectady Study Area City of Schenectacy, Schenectady County, New York

Multi- Single- ...... Family ...... Family . . . . . Attached . . Total For-Rent For-Sale All Ranges Number of Households: 950 676 100 174

Empty Nesters & Retirees 27% 24% 37% 34%

Traditional & Non-Traditional Families 16% 12% 13% 33%

Younger Singles & Couples 57% 64% 50% 33%

100% 100% 100% 100%

SOURCE: Claritas, Inc.; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. Table 3 Page 1 of 2

Summary Of Selected Rental Properties Downtown Study Area, City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York February, 2020

Number Unit Reported Reported Rent per Property (Date Opened) of Units Type Base Rent Unit Size Sq. Ft. Additional Information Address/Walk Score

Kelsey Commons 46 … Apartments … 100% occupancy (2018) Studio/1ba $735 411 $1.79 2301 Cambridge Road 1br/1ba $975 542 $1.80 70 Walk Score 2br/1ba-2ba $1,110 to 815 $1.36 to $1,245 $1.53 3br/2ba $1,295 to 815 $1.59 to $1,345 $1.65

One 11 Liberty Street 31 … Apartments … 75% occupancy (2015) 1br/1ba $835 to 740 to $1.13 to Fitness center, 111 Liberty Street $1,400 994 $1.41 rooftop terrace, Luizzi Property Management 2br/1ba $1,600 1,379 to $1.15 to controlled access, 88 Walk Score 1,393 $1.16 and security system.

Lofts at Union Square 12 … Apartments … 100% occupancy (2016) 1br/1ba $995 to 795 $1.25 to Air conditioning. 525 Union Street/1007 Barrett Street $1,000 $1.26 Maddalone & Associates, Inc. 91 Walk Score

245 Broadway 18 … Apartments … 94% occupancy (2015) Unit 104 1br/1ba $1,050 860 $1.22 Central air, 245 Broadway soundproofed, Hodorowski Property Management and secured entry. 88 Walk Score

River House 206 … Apartments … 99% occupancy (2017) Studio/1ba $1,050 to 651 to $1.61 to Pool, fintess center, 221 Harborside Drive $1,200 674 $1.78 terrace with Galesi Group 1br/1ba $1,350 to 883 to $1.53 to gas fire pit & grills, 54 Walk Score $1,700 1,036 $1.64 community lounge, 2br/2ba $1,900 to 1,245 to $1.53 to bike & kayak storage, $3,300 1,675 $1.97 and business center.

The Nott Apartments 27 … Apartments … In lease-up (2019) 1br/1ba $1,075 to 690 to $1.50 to Courtyard, 101 Nott Terrace $1,475 985 $1.56 pet washing area, 87 Walk Score 2br/1ba $1,475 to 1,070 to $1.38 to fitness center. $1,645 1,160 $1.42

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. Table 3 Page 2 of 2 Summary Of Selected Rental Properties Downtown Study Area, City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York February, 2020

Number Unit Reported Reported Rent per Property (Date Opened) of Units Type Base Rent Unit Size Sq. Ft. Additional Information Address/Walk Score

Colonial Commons 52 … Apartments … 77% occupancy (2018) 1br/1ba $1,100 754 to $1.41 to Fitness center, 1419 Erie Boulevard 780 $1.46 controlled access, Fusco Realty Group 2br/2ba $1,250 to 972 to $1.29 to and key fob entry. 81 Walk Score $1,450 1,100 $1.32

242 Broadway 39 … Apartments … 90% occupancy (2016) 1br/1ba $1,250 to 907 to $1.19 to Secured entry, and 242 Broadway $1,275 1,067 $1.38 washer & dryer Hodorowski Property Management 2br/1ba $1,500 1,190 $1.26 in every unit. 88 Walk Score

Electric City 104 … Apartments … In lease-up (2019) 1br/1ba $1,400 to 818 to $1.71 to Fitness center, 236 State Street $1,475 917 $1.80 clubhouse, rooftop grills Prime Companies 2br/2ba $1,805 1,296 $1.39 and pet area, sundeck, 91 Walk Score 2br/2.5ba $2,995 2,177 $1.38 bocce ball, and TV lounge.

Window Factory Lofts 16 … Apartments … 93% occupancy (2014) 2br/2ba $1,500 1,328 $1.13 Laundry facilities. 301 Green Street Crystin & co. Realty, LLC 80 Walk Score

Metropolitan Lofts 6 … Apartments … 86% occupancy (2013) Unit 4 2br/2ba $1,575 1,445 $1.09 Central air, and 409 State Street Unit 7 2br/2ba $1,510 1,310 $1.15 in-unit Galesi Group washer & dryer. 92 Walk Score

Townhomes at Union Square 8 … Townhouses … 88% occupancy (2012) Air conditioning. 1011 Barrett Street 2br/1.5ba $1,695 n/a n/a 1015 Barrett Street 2br/1.5ba $2,100 n/a n/a Maddalone & Associates, Inc. 91 Walk Score

College Suites at Washington Square 69 … Apartments … n/a (2012) 2br/1ba $1,700 760 $2.24 Business center, 117 Washington Avenue 4br/2ba $2,980 1,306 $2.28 flight simulator, United Group fitness center, 81 Walk Score music room, and SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. study areas Table 4

Summary Of Selected For-Sale Single-Family Attached Properties Downtown Schenectady Market Area, Schenectady County, New York March 2020

Building Unit Asking Price Property (Year Built) Type Type Asking Price Unit Size Per Sq. Ft. Address/Walk Score . . . . . Glenville . . . . . Yates Farm Ph. 2 (2020) 24 CO 2br/2ba $230,900 to 1,273 to $181 to Grayson Place $243,195 $191 Amadore Homes 3br/2ba $249,900 1,645 to $136 to 5 Walk Score 1,841 $152 3br/2ba $258,700 1,645 $157

. . . . . Schenectady . . . . . Townhouses {2019} 15 TH 2br/2.5ba $260,900 to 1,785 $146 to Barrett Street $273,400 $153 Live In Schenectady 2br/2.5ba $269,900 1,841 $147 86 Walk Score

Townhomes at Mohawk Harbor 15 TH 2br/2ba $525,000 1,899 $276 {2018} 2br/2.5ba $599,000 1,947 $308 Harborside Drive 3br/3ba $650,000 to 2,188 to $291 to Galesi Group $675,000 2,320 $297 47 Walk Score

. . . . . Resales . . . . . Riverside Condos CO 2br/1.5ba $177,500 1,228 $145 137 Front Street 2br/1.5ba $186,500 1,225 $152

SOURCE: Multiple Listing Service; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. Table 5

Target Groups For New Multi-Family For-Rent The Downtown Schenectady Study Area City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York

Empty Nesters Number of & Retirees* Households Percent The One Percenters 3 0.4% Small-Town Patriarchs 11 1.6% Affluent Empty Nesters 3 0.4% Suburban Establishment 8 1.2% Urban Establishment 7 1.0% New Empty Nesters 11 1.6% Pillars of the Community 12 1.8% Traditional Couples 5 0.7% Second City Establishment 8 1.2% Multi-Ethnic Empty Nesters 3 0.4% Mainstream Empty Nesters 19 2.8% Cosmopolitan Couples 12 1.8% Middle-American Retirees 25 3.7% Blue-Collar Retirees 25 3.7% Middle-Class Move-Downs 10 1.5%

Subtotal: 162 24.0%

Traditional & Non-Traditional Families† Corporate Establishment 2 0.3% Nouveau Money 2 0.3% e-Type Families 1 0.1% Button-Down Families 4 0.6% Unibox Transferees 9 1.3% Fiber-Optic Families 3 0.4% Late-Nest Suburbanites 12 1.8% Uptown Families 37 5.5% Multi-Ethnic Families 10 1.5% Multi-Cultural Families 2 0.3%

Subtotal: 82 12.1%

Younger Singles & Couples* New Power Couples 4 0.6% New Bohemians 32 4.7% Cosmopolitan Elite 3 0.4% The VIPs 98 14.5% Fast-Track Professionals 84 12.4% Small-City Singles 45 6.7% Suburban Achievers 15 2.2% Twentysomethings 151 22.3% Subtotal: 432 63.9%

Total Households: 676 100.0%

* Primarily one- and two-person households † Primarily three- and four-person households.

SOURCE: Claritas, Inc.; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. Table 6

Target Groups For New Multi-Family For-Sale The Downtown Schenectady Study Area City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York

Empty Nesters Number of Share of & Retirees* Households Households The One Percenters 1 1.0% Small-Town Patriarchs 2 2.0% Affluent Empty Nesters 3 3.0% Suburban Establishment 2 2.0% Urban Establishment 1 1.0% New Empty Nesters 4 4.0% Pillars of the Community 1 1.0% Traditional Couples 2 2.0% Second City Establishment 2 2.0% Mainstream Empty Nesters 2 2.0% Cosmopolitan Couples 2 2.0% Middle-American Retirees 3 3.0% Blue-Collar Retirees 8 8.0% Middle-Class Move-Downs 4 4.0%

Subtotal: 37 37.0%

Traditional & Non-Traditional Families† e-Type Families 1 1.0% Unibox Transferees 2 2.0% Late-Nest Suburbanites 3 3.0% Uptown Families 5 5.0% Multi-Ethnic Families 2 2.0%

Subtotal: 13 13.0%

Younger Singles & Couples* New Power Couples 1 1.0% New Bohemians 6 6.0% Cosmopolitan Elite 1 1.0% The VIPs 15 15.0% Fast-Track Professionals 6 6.0% Small-City Singles 8 8.0% Suburban Achievers 6 6.0% Twentysomethings 7 7.0%

Subtotal: 50 50.0%

Total Households: 100 100.0%

* Primarily one- and two-person households † Primarily three- and four-person households.

SOURCE: Claritas, Inc.; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. Table 7

Target Groups For Single-Family Attached For-Sale The Downtown Schenectady Study Area City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York

Empty Nesters Number of Share of & Retirees* Households Households The One Percenters 3 1.7% Small-Town Patriarchs 3 1.7% Affluent Empty Nesters 4 2.3% Suburban Establishment 4 2.3% Urban Establishment 1 0.6% New Empty Nesters 3 1.7% Pillars of the Community 3 1.7% Traditional Couples 2 1.1% Second City Establishment 2 1.1% Multi-Ethnic Empty Nesters 1 0.6% Mainstream Empty Nesters 11 6.3% Cosmopolitan Couples 1 0.6% Middle-American Retirees 8 4.6% Blue-Collar Retirees 9 5.2% Middle-Class Move-Downs 4 2.3%

Subtotal: 59 33.9%

Traditional & Non-Traditional Families† Corporate Establishment 2 1.1% Nouveau Money 2 1.1% e-Type Families 1 0.6% Button-Down Families 5 2.9% Unibox Transferees 7 4.0% Fiber-Optic Families 3 1.7% Late-Nest Suburbanites 7 4.0% Uptown Families 25 14.4% Multi-Ethnic Families 5 2.9% Multi-Cultural Families 1 0.6%

Subtotal: 58 33.3%

Younger Singles & Couples* New Bohemians 2 1.1% Cosmopolitan Elite 1 0.6% The VIPs 17 9.8% Fast-Track Professionals 8 4.6% Small-City Singles 12 6.9% Suburban Achievers 14 8.0% Twentysomethings 3 1.7%

Subtotal: 57 32.8%

Total Households: 174 100.0%

* Primarily one- and two-person households † Primarily three- and four-person households.

SOURCE: Claritas, Inc.; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. Table 8

Optimum Market Position The Downtown Schenectady Study Area City of Schenectady, Schenectady County, New York March, 2020

Base Base Annualized Share of Unit Unit Rent/Price Unit Size Rent/Price Average Households Housing Type Configuration Mix Range Range Per Sq. Ft. Absorption Number 85.0% Multi-Family For-Rent 135 to 170

350 Lofts Microloft/1ba 20% $800 400 $2.00 70 to 88 Studio/1ba 25% $950 500 $1.90 1br/1ba 30% $1,100 600 $1.83 2br/1ba 25% $1,250 800 $1.56

Weighted Average: $1,040 585 $1.78

326 Apartments Studio/1ba 25% $1,125 550 $2.05 65 to 82 1br/1ba 35% $1,275 650 $1.96 2br/2ba 30% $1,750 1,000 $1.75 3br/2ba 10% $2,250 1,350 $1.67

Weighted Average: $1,478 800 $1.85

5.7% Multi-Family For-Sale 10 to 15

100 Condominiums 1br/1ba 35% $175,000 850 $206 10 to 15 2br/2ba 30% $225,000 1,150 $196 2br/2.5ba 20% $265,000 1,450 $183 2br/2.5ba/study 15% $300,000 1,650 $182

Weighted Average: $226,750 1,180 $192

9.3% Single-Family Attached For-Sale 17 to 26

174 Townhouses 2br/2.5ba 35% $275,000 1,350 $204 17 to 26 2br/2.5ba/den 35% $350,000 1,700 $206 3br/2.5ba 30% $395,000 2,000 $198

Weighted Average: $337,250 1,668 $202

100.0%

950 Target Households 162 to 211 per year

NOTE: Base rents/prices are in year 2020 dollars, do not include premiums, options or upgrades. Property location will have a significant impact on values.

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Post Office Box 4907 Clinton, New Jersey 08809 908 735-6336 [email protected] • www.ZVA.cc

Residential Market Analysis Across the Urban-to-Rural Transect

ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS—

Every effort has been made to insure the accuracy of the data contained within this analysis. Demographic and economic estimates and projections have been obtained from government agencies at the national, state, and county levels. Market information has been obtained from sources presumed to be reliable, including developers, owners, and/or sales agents. However, this information cannot be warranted by Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. While the proprietary residential target market methodology™ employed in this analysis allows for a margin of error in base data, it is assumed that the market data and government estimates and projections are substantially accurate.

Absorption scenarios are based upon the assumption that a normal economic environment will prevail in a relatively steady state during development of the subject property. Absorption paces are likely to be slower during recessionary periods and faster during periods of recovery and high growth. Absorption scenarios are also predicated on the assumption that the product recommendations will be implemented generally as outlined in this report and that the developer will apply high-caliber design, construction, marketing, and management techniques to the development of the property.

Recommendations are subject to compliance with all applicable regulations. Relevant accounting, tax, and legal matters should be substantiated by appropriate counsel.

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ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Post Office Box 4907 Clinton, New Jersey 08809 908 735-6336 [email protected] • www.ZVA.cc

Residential Market Analysis Across the Urban-to-Rural Transect

RIGHTS AND STUDY OWNERSHIP—

Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. retains all rights, title and interest in the ZVA residential target market methodology™ and target market descriptions contained within this study. The specific findings of the analysis are the property of the client and can be distributed at the client’s discretion.

© Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2020

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