Hebert Box Activity

Hebert Boxes: Mapping Florida’s Storms So what is a Hebert Box? The Hebert Box theory came from Paul Hebert in the 1970’s. Paul Hebert, a 30 year veteran weather forecaster for the National Weather Service / National Hurricane Center, found that major hurricanes that passed through one of these boxes were very likely to make landfall on Florida. As shown in the map to the right, there are two Hebert boxes. Hebert Box 1 is the area between 15°N - 20°N Latitude and 60°W - 65°W Longitude. This box located just east of Puerto Rico. In August and September, major hurricanes will pass through Hebert Box 1 and are likely to hit Florida. See if you can locate this box on the map using the latitude and longitude coordinates listed above. “Tropical cyclones moving to the north of this box usually recurve into higher latitudes and do not hit southeast Florida. Tropical cyclones moving to the south of this box usually continue westward through the western Caribbean Sea. Several category 4 hurricanes which moved through the box were weakened by the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba before striking southeast Florida and the Keys as category 2 hurricanes.”- www.villagespires.com/hebert_boxes.html Hebert Box 2 is located south of Cuba and east of the Yucatan peninsula. This box is the area between 15°N - 20°N Latitude and 80°W - 85°W Longitude. Locate this box on the map using the latitude and longitude coordinates. Hurricanes that form in the western Caribbean in late September and October that pass through Hebert Box 2 are likely to hit Florida. “Previously existing hurricanes which are moving through the box towards the west or northwest and have not formed in the area are not to be considered. Tropical cyclones which form west of 85°W and east of 80°W either do not hit south Florida, or weaken to less than a major hurricane (winds 110 mph, or less), before hitting south Florida.” -www.villagespires.com/hebert_boxes.html Know your Saffir-Simpson Categories: Category 1 Winds 74-95 mph Category 2 Winds 96-110 mph Category 3 Winds 111-130 mph Category 4 Winds 131-155 mph Category 5 Winds greater than 155 mph Activity: Now that you have some background on Hebert Boxes, let’s test Paul Hebert’s theory. • Using the tables under the map containing hurricane latitude and longitude coordinates, plot the path of 8 recent hurricanes to see if they travel through one of the boxes and hit Florida. • Use colored pencils to plot the different hurricane paths using a different color for each hurricane. • Color the box with the hurricane symbol in the table with the same color the hurricane is plotted with. Post Activity Questions: 1) After plotting all the points listed, how many hurricanes passed through one of the Hebert Boxes and hit Florida? ___________________________________________________________ 2) Did the hurricanes passing through Hebert Box 1 occur in August and September? ___________________________________________________________ 3) Did the hurricanes passing through Hebert Box 2 occur in late September and October? ___________________________________________________________ Further Research Questions: 1) Do you think that all hurricanes that hit Florida pass through a Hebert Box? How and where would you find the facts to answer this question? ___________________________________________________________ 2) Should Floridians pay attention when a hurricane or tropical storm passes through a Hebert box? Why? ___________________________________________________________ 3) Thinking back, are there any other major Hurricanes that hit Florida that did not pass through a Hebert Box? Hurricane Andrew…..? ___________________________________________________________ Reference Websites: -Hebert Boxes (Hurricanes Affecting Florida) http://www.villagespires.com/hebert_boxes.html -Hurricane City http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm -The National Weather Service / National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov -National Weather Service /Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml Hurricane Dennis Hurricane Irene Hurricane Georges Hurricane Ivan 1981 1999 1998 2004 8/10 – 8/21 10/12 – 10/18 9/19 – 10/1 9/8 – 9/24 LAT LONG LAT LONG LAT LONG LAT LONG 14 °N 49 °W 16 °N 82 °W 15 °N 52 °W 12 °N 63 °W 15 °N 62 °W 17 °N 83 °W 17 °N 62 °W 15 °N 73 °W 16 °N 73 °W 21 °N 84 °W 18 °N 69 °W 18 °N 80 °W 18 °N 78 °W 23 °N 83 °W 19 °N 73 °W 21 °N 85 °W 22 °N 81 °W 25 °N 81 °W 21 °N 77 °W 29 °N 88 °W 26 °N 81 °W 28 °N 80 °W 24 °N 81 °W 37 °N 81 °W 31 °N 81 °W 30 °N 80 °W 26 °N 85 °W 38 °N 74 °W 33 °N 79 °W 32 °N 79 °W 30 °N 89 °W 26 °N 79 °W 36 °N 75 °W 33 °N 77 °W 31 °N 86 °W 25 °N 83 °W 37 °N 70 °W 35 °N 75 °W 31 °N 83 °W 30 °N 93 °W Hurricane Frances Hurricane Charley Hurricane Jeanne Hurricane Wilma 2004 2004 2004 2005 8/29 – 9/8 8/9 – 8/15 9/13 – 9/27 10/16 – 10/25 LAT LONG LAT LONG LAT LONG LAT LONG 18 °N 54 °W 11 °N 59 °W 16 °N 60 °W 18 °N 79 °W 19 °N 61 °W 15 °N 70 °W 18 °N 65 °W 16 °N 80 °W 22 °N 70 °W 16 °N 75 °W 20 °N 73 °W 17 °N 82 °W 24 °N 75 °W 18 °N 79 °W 24 °N 72 °W 18 °N 85 °W 26 °N 78 °W 21 °N 82 °W 27 °N 71 °W 21 °N 87 °W 27 °N 79 °W 24 °N 83 °W 28 °N 70 °W 24 °N 84 °W 28 °N 82 °W 28 °N 82 °W 26 °N 70 °W 26 °N 81 °W 31 °N 85 °W 30 °N 81 °W 27 °N 81 °W 28 °N 79 °W 33 °N 85 °W 35 °N 78 °W 28 °N 82 °W 30 °N 76 °W 36 °N 83 °W 39 °N 74 °W 31 °N 84 °W 33 °N 72 °W .

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