CREATIVE DESTRUCTION THROUGH REPLICATION 1 Creative Destruction in Science Warren Tierney INSEAD Jay H. Hardy III Oregon State University Charles R. Ebersole University of Virginia Keith Leavitt Oregon State University Domenico Viganola The World Bank Elena Giulia Clemente Stockholm School of Economics Michael Gordon Massey University Anna Dreber Stockholm School of Economics, University of Innsbruck Magnus Johannesson Stockholm School of Economics Thomas Pfeiffer Massey University Hiring Decisions Forecasting Collaboration Eric Luis Uhlmann INSEAD CREATIVE DESTRUCTION THROUGH REPLICATION 2 Corresponding Authors: Warren Tierney & Eric Luis Uhlmann, INSEAD, Organisational Behaviour Area, 1 Ayer Rajah Avenue, 138676 Singapore, Phone: 65 8468 5671, E-mails:
[email protected],
[email protected]. Author Contributions Statement: The first four and last authors collaboratively ideated and drafted the paper and contributed equally. WT, JH, CE, & EU designed the gender and hiring decisions study and WT, JH, & CE carried out the statistical analyses. CE, WT, & EU designed the re-analysis of the Ebersole (2019) dataset on working parents and child care choices, and CE & WT carried out the analyses. DV, EC, MG, AD, MJ, & TP designed, ran, analyzed, and wrote the report of the forecasting study. Members of the “Hiring Decisions Forecasting Collaboration” lent their expertise as forecasters, and are listed with full names and affiliation in Appendix 1. All authors collaboratively edited the paper. Funding Acknowledgments: Eric Luis Uhlmann is grateful for an R&D grant from INSEAD in support of this research. Anna Dreber is grateful for generous financial support from the Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation (Svenska Handelsbankens Forskningsstiftelser), the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation and the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation (AD is a Wallenberg Scholar), and the Swedish Foundation for Humanities and Social Sciences.