The Spread of Inaccurate Political Information in the Era of Distrusted News Media

— LADD JONATHAN BY WITH PODKUL ALEX

INACCURATE INFORMATION DISTRUSTED THE SPREAD OF POLITICAL OF ERA THE IN NEWS MEDIA

Introduction knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn 25 / 2 )

I.E. FAKE NEWS I.E. FAKE ( OF SOCIAL NEWS SHARING AND MEDIA DISTRUST MEDIA AND SHARING NEWS SOCIAL OF THE CHALLENGE OF FIGHTING FAKE NEWS IN THE ERA THE IN NEWS FAKE FIGHTING OF CHALLENGE THE THE LOSS OF THE PUBLIC’S TRUST IN THE NEWS MEDIA NEWS THE IN TRUST PUBLIC’S THE OF LOSS THE OF CORRECTINGTHE CHALLENGE MISPERCEPTIONS BELIEFS CONSPIRATORIAL COMBATING WORKS CITED FIGURES

CONTENTS 22 8

4 18 16 10

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION Contents knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 3 (as quoted in Baum(as et al., “Combating News”) Fake its centers of news gathering and distribution by a system a system by distribution and gathering news of centers its honest editors alive will not be able to repair the mischief he he mischief the repair to be able not will alive editors honest organism. Put your finger on it in New York, and it vibrates in in vibrates it and York, in New it on finger your Put organism. of telegraph wires that in a single circuit would extend five five extend would circuit in a single that wires telegraph of can do. An editor receiving a news item over the wire has no no has wire the over item a news receiving editor An do. can of case in the would he as authenticity its test to opportunity a local report. The offices of the members of The Associated Associated The of members report. the of a local offices The times around the globe. This constitutes a very sensitive sensitive a very constitutes This globe. the around times San Francisco.” Press in this country are connected with one another, and and another, one with connected are country in this Press — from Harper’s a 1925 article news “Fake and the public” “Once the news faker obtains access to the press wires all the the all wires press the to access obtains faker news “Once the

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION Introduction knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 4

In late 2 1 “Confidence in Institutions: Trends in Americans’ Attitudes toward Government, Media, and Business,” Art Swift, “Americans’ Trust in Mass Media Sinks to New Low,” Gallup, Sept. 14, 2016, http://www.gallup. April 2017, MorningApril Consult 2017, found stark partisan differences in responses to the question, “Who do you trust more tell to you the truth: national political White House,media, or don’t Trump’s know?” Among Democrats, 54 percent answered they that trusted the national political media more, while only 12 percent said they more had trust White in President House. Among Trump’s between gap the and flipped were responses those however, Republicans, the two institutions with was only even steeper, percent 10 choosing the 1 com/poll/195542/americans-trust-mass-media-sinks-new-low.aspx. 2 The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research (APNORC), 2015, http://www.apnorc.org/ projects/Pages/HTML percent20Reports/confidence-in-institutions-trends-in-americans-attitudes- toward-government-media-and-business0310-2333.aspx. General Social Survey a major (GSS), academic poll conducted every two or three years since 1972, has also documented this trend. Since 1973, it has the with questions, premised confidence institutional of battery a asked following: “I am going name to some institutions in this country. As far as the people running these institutions are concerned, a would you have yousay great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardlyany confidence at all in them?” One of the institutions listed is the “press.” From2016, 1973 to the percentage of respondents with “a great deal” of confidence in the press dropped from 23 percent eight to percent, while those answering “hardly any” increased drastically from percent 15 50 to percent. widened has Republicans and Democrats between trust media in gap The over the decades, even as it has declined among those of all party affiliations. The official 2014 GSS report noted“Republicans that are less likely than press.” the confidence express in to Independents and Democrats THE NEWS MEDIA theIn 1970s, several national surveys began regularly asking respondents about their trust in the news media (measured as “trust” or “confidence” or with other similar wording). Since then, these surveys found a steady, have has Gallup example, media. For the in faith losing Americans trend of general have you confidence do and trust respondents, much “How asked repeatedly in the mass media … when it comes reporting to the news accurately fully, and fairly?” 1972, 68 percent May In of respondents “a great had deal” or “a fair amount,” while only six September by percent 2016, “none Yet had all.” at only 32 percent “a great had deal” or “a fair amount” of trust and confidence, and 27 percent “none had all.” at THE LOSS OF THE THE OF LOSS THE TRUSTPUBLIC’S IN

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However, there are reasons However, think to 4 . 5 Jones, “Why Americans Don’t Trust the Media,” and Ladd, “Why Americans Hate the Media.” For a Paul Gronke and Timothy E. Cook, “Disdaining the Media: The American Public’s Changing Attitudes Easley, Cameron. April 28, 2017. “Political Media Earns Poor Marks from Americans.” Morning Consult. David A. Jones, “Why Americans Don’t Trust the Media: A Preliminary Analysis,” Harvard International There could be several explanations for why conservatives and Republicans losthave more trust in the media. Several of the most probable explanations are connected the to fragmentation of the media industry. Since as 1980, the number of news choices hasgrown include to explicitly conservative and liberal sources, media trust has dropped particularly low among conservatives and Republicans who regularly listen political to talk radio. 4 Journal of Press/Politics 9, no. 2 (spring 2004): 60-75. 5 Toward the News,” Political Communication 24, no. 3 (2007): 259-281; and Jonathan M. Ladd, “Why Americans Hate the Media and How It Matters,” (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2012). 6 comparative international approach to this issue looking at European countries, see Gal Ariely, “TrustingPress the and Political Trust: A Conditional Relationship,” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 351-367. 2015): (August 3 25, no. 3 https://morningconsult.com/2017/04/28/political-media-earns-poor-marks-americans/ As Figures 1 and the 2 show, overalldecline inconfidence in the press, and partisan polarization on the topic, didn’t occur exactly at the same time. In fact, you can think of the change in confidence in the press as taking place in two phases. The first phasewas the1980s and1990s, average when confidence in the press declined, without much a of gap opening between the parties. Confidence in the press declined in both parties. The second phase is after 2000, when confidence in the press polarized along party lines. A large gap opened between the parties in their levels of confidence in the press,a gap persists that this to day. One existing interpretation of declining trust in the press is it that reflects the broader trend of disappearing trust in a broad list of American national institutions. Some studies suggest low that “trust in government” might stem malaise.” “from political general more a national political media and 72 percent White selectingHouse. Trump’s that the press has special problems with low confidence. First, the decline in in decline First,the confidence. low with problems special press has the that confidence in the press is more rapid than it is in other institutions. Second, the press for larger differences confidence in are ideological and partisan institutions other for than In thisIn new environment, conservatives’ stances toward “the or media” “the press” are likely related what they to see as the establishment (or “mainstream” media) and its relationship more to conservative sources. In book,my one of us found if that you asked people about “the or media” “the press” in open-ended questions in a national poll, they associated these as such organizations news old-fashioned) (more conventional with terms the national network television news and major newspapers such as The Times.New York On cable and the internet, when they discussed News Fox “the with them contrasted they programs, radio talk conservative or Channel ormedia” “the press.” people Many seem see to these types of media as very

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION The loss of the public’s trust in the news media knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 6 this 8 Democrats’ media trust trust media Democrats’ 9 People their like media, just not the media. Considering 7 Shanto Iyengar and Kyu S. Hahn, “Red Media, Blue Media: Evidence of Ideological Selectivity in Media Jones, “Why Americans Don’t Trust the Media.” See Figure 2 in Andrew Daniller et al., “Measuring Trust in the Press in a Changing Media Environment,” issue is particularly noteworthy. A conservative might trust News but Fox not CNN, MSNBC or NPR, whereas a liberal might trust but CNN News. not Fox Thus, a good deal of the lower trust among Republicans is connected their to beliefs about “liberal the mainstream in bias” media. 7 Communication Methods and Measures 11, no. 1 (2017): 76-85. 8 Use,” Journal of Communication 59, no. 1 (2009): 19-39. 9 different, almost opposites. Liking one goes with disliking the other. anotherIn researchers study, experimentally manipulated which news sources respondents in a national poll were asked whether they trusted. sources differed media from their own their about reactions Respondents’ impressions of others’ media. When participants were asked about their own media, the approval rating was nearly 75 percent, but when they were asked about “the press” it is presented (as in the GSS), the approval rating dropped belowto 40 percent. has declined relatively less because they view the establishment sources thethat phrases “the and media” “the press” call mind to as being more sympathetic liberalism. to Why do they think There this? are two explanations arethat not mutually exclusive. First, the public listen, may or watch read all these news outlets directly and perceive news that in mainstream and liberal outlets is more slanted toward liberals and Democrats than the news on explicitly conservative outlets News and Fox conservative like talk radio. (This is, I think an indisputable statement about the ideological slants of these outlets Everyone relative can agree each to other. on this, even if liberals and correct.) is slant which about disagree conservatives Direct perception influence may some people, but a much wider of swath the public has an opinion about different many news sources thanwatches/ listens/reads them on a regular basis. seems It clear another that reason for the ideological divide in media trust is what people hear about these outlets second- or thirdhand. Rhetoric from politicians and pundits about the news media has become more negative in recent decades. This is true of both people Many Republicans. and conservatives among parties, especially but consume these news sources occasionally but hear about or them never, neighbors. and friends their and pundits from politicians, This all creates clear public images News, of Fox conservative talk radio, CNN, MSNBC, NPR, as well as the other major networks and newspapers that people see as part of the mainstream media. When asked either evaluate to “the or media” “the press” as a whole, or specific outlets, they respond based on the images in their heads about these outlets, which comes a bit from experience (when it but exists), also from their mental image of where these that there is substantial evidence of ideological selectivity in media use, selectivity media ideological in of evidence substantial is there that

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION The loss of the public’s trust in the news media knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 7 outlets stand in the landscape of partisan politics. People the now evaluate news media in polls theythe politicians evaluate way and political groups: based on thoughts and feelings attached they have to those outlets from both their experience, and heard what they have about them through the mass generally. culture popular and media summary,In the overall decline in media trust both (among political parties trust in decline overall the of occurred because likely independents) and parties and American political of polarization the American institutions, in independent had These changes industry. news the of fragmentation the causal force, but also were more influential because theywere all happening theat same time Some and built of Americans’ on each other. increasing skepticism of all large institutionsevident (as in polling questions about trust and confidence in these institutions) spilled onto the media well.as At the meaning gettingmore polarized, American party was the time, system same and worldviews different increasingly had Republicans and Democrats that attacked each other more viciously. Changes in mediatechnology ledto the creation of cable internet news news channels sources. and later, These sources changed the image of the news media in several ways. Changes in FCC regulations allowed partisan radio programs flourish. to The major these and partisan different reputations, developed news political sources of were liked some by parts of the political spectrum and disliked others. by Ideological news sources also an ideological had and professional incentive useto their platforms attack to the mainstream news media, and they did. media fragmented party and system polarized this in pundits and Politicians landscape an incentive had also to criticize the mainstream media and did. they and opponents, ideological their with affiliated outlets partisan

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10 Adam J. Berinsky, “Rumors and Health Care Reform: Experiments in Political Misinformation,” British 10 Journal of Political Science no. 2 (2015): 47, 241-262. The problem of misinformation did not start in the present fragmented media have rumors political inaccurate and theories conspiracy beliefs, era. False spread among the public least for at all of American history, and possibly doesn’t that all of human mean history. Americans Yet should become modern of consumers among beliefs problem. the False about complacent worthin are considering that attributes unique have American journalism detail. The following section examines certain types of misinformation—fake some among spread consistently beliefs—that conspiratorial and news portions of the American public, and why false beliefs persist even after correct them. to presented been has evidence 2010,In stemming from comments made then-New by Betsy Lt. Gov. York majorMcCaughey, many Republican politicians claimed President Barack AffordableObama’s Care Act (ACA or Obamacare) included state-sanctioned to decide [were] officials “government that implied which panels,” “death whether individual citizens should receive health care based on a calculation of their level of productivity While in society.” this suggestion was false, the rumor plagued health care politics (particularly on the right) for a long time. How can one correct political misinformation A pair of this? experiments like found simply that correcting the record on death panels was inadequate to change the public’s misperceptions. The corrections best make to way was to them comehave from individuals for whom the corrections “run counter to interests.” political and personal their THE CHALLENGE OF CORRECTING MISPERCEPTIONS In anotherIn study has that been frequently discussed in the press and heavily issuing that discovered Reifler Jason and Nyhan Brendan academia, in cited a correction is not enough change to false beliefs. They looked publicly at held beliefs regarding “weapons of mass destruction” in Iraq, tax cuts and revenue, and stem cell research during the George Bush administration W. some backfire among a increased Misperceptions effect: found and people. They looked the at misperception held Iraq that “weaponsof mass destruction” before American intervention in 2003 and found the that effect among misperceptions increased actually misinformation this correcting of

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION The challenge of correcting misperceptions knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 9 14 However, replications indicate However, this that backfire effect might 11

13 So caution is warranted. But whether or not there is a true backfire 12 D. J. Flynn, “How Do Politicians Respond to Misinformed Constituents? Results from an Elite Survey Emily Thorson, “Belief Echoes: The Persistent Effects of Corrected Misinformation,” Political Thomas Wood and Ethan Porter, “The Elusive Backfire Effect: Mass Attitudes’ Steadfast Factual Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler, “When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions,” Finally, even in theFinally, rare cases in which inaccurate beliefs can be corrected, there does appear be to a belief echo, where misinformation continues a series In debunked. been has it even after attitudes influence political to evaluate respondents to Thorson asked studies, Emily experimental of corrected. Opposing then provided, but was Misinformation candidates. party respondents lower had opinions of the candidates than when they started, even after misinformation that was corrected. Thorson writes, “Exposure misinformation to creates belief echoes: lingering effects on attitudes that persistedafter even the misinformation is effectively corrected. … The idea continues exert to an effect attitudes.”on effect, and how prevalent it is, seemswhat clear is that correcting false challenging. is beliefs The difficulty of correcting misperceptions is a problem not just because the public should be moreinformed as an end itself. unto Misperceptions can influence how politicians respondto the American public. There is some members of treat mail constituent responding to legislators that evidence the public who are misinformed remarkably differently from those who are informed or uninformed. a survey In experiment, state legislative offices were less likely respond to emails to from misinformed constituents than to uninformed constituents. While the uninformed are seen as persuadable, the misinformed are taken as“holding stronger opinions and being less open- minded.” 11 Political Behavior 32, no. 2 (June 2010): 303-330. 12 (Forthcoming). Behavior Political Adherence,” 13 2016). paper, Experiment” (working 14 Communication 33, no. 3 (2016): 460-480. conservatives. not be as widespread as first suggested. Experiments can get corrections to to corrections get first suggested. as can widespread Experiments as be not work.

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION The challenge of correcting misperceptions knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 10 )

. The second includes misinformation from otherwise from otherwise misinformation includes second The 15 Katie Rogers and Jo anah Engel Bromwich, “The hoaxes, fake news and misinformation we saw on I.E. FAKE NEWS FAKE I.E. legitimate resources. For example, the Times found clothing that company Urban Outfitters mistakenly told Twitterits followers to be on tosure bring their “voter’s registration card” the to polls. The Times’ definition is the one willwe employ here. believe We this two-part definition of news fake also fits the definition used by economists Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow: “news articles are that intentionally and verifiably false, and could mislead 15 Election Day,” The New York Times, Nov. 8, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/09/us/politics/ debunk-fake-news-election-day.html This brings us the to 2016 presidential campaign and its aftermath. Since the what regarding conversation national ongoing an been has there election, doto with the proliferation and spread news of fake among the American public. Stories such as “FBI Director Comey just proved his bias putting by sign on his frontTrump (countercurrentnews.com) lawn” or “Donald Trump protester speaks out: ‘I was paid $3,500 rally’” protest to (abcnews. Trump’s com.co) went viral, especially in the finalweeks leading Electionto up Day. worried have Many about the democratic consequences news, of fake i.e. whether voters were using doctored stories as part of their decision-making process. this In section, will we first review some of the recent stories and figures surrounding news;fake next,we will upondraw the conspiracy theory literature in political science highlight to what is known about fake news;we and finally, will share some policy suggestions by made the political science community for handling this issue. Although there is continuing debate around the definition of news,fake for purposes discussion, of my define we’ll veryit in a specificOn and way. limited Election Times 2016, Day The introduced New York two broad categories for what qualifies as news.fake The first includes hoaxes.Examples can include on actors political portraying falsely or reporting numbers poll incorrect social media. The Times noted the that latter could include false portrayals of politicians as (such a viral tweet from an impersonatingaccount) Twitter or even false portrayals of media organizations as (such the site fake The Denver Guardian). ( COMBATING COMBATING CONSPIRATORIAL BELIEFS

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION Combating conspiratorial beliefs (i.e., fake news) knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 11

17 18 19 16 Craig Silverman, “This analysis shows how viral fake news stories outperformed real news on Philip N. Howard et al., “Data Memo: Junk News and Bots During the U.S. Election: What Were Michigan Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow, “Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election,” Journal of Jacob L. Nelson, “Is ‘Fake News’ a Fake Problem?” Columbia Journalism Review, Jan. 31, 2017, https:// Looking specificallyat the spread of news fake via social media, however, the issue news of fake truly stands out. Another cursory report from BuzzFeed News revealed in that the weeks leading theto election (defined as from August Election to news fake stories Day), garnered more Facebook engagement the (in form of shares, reactions and comments) than real with engagements Facebook million 7.3 Whereas stories. there were news mainstream news, there were million 8.7 engagements with news. fake Even more significant, some of the most viral individual stories in the lastweeks before the election were from news fake sources. For example, the news fake president, for Trump Donald endorses world, shocks Francis “Pope story shares, 960,000 garnered Fed) the Ending by (published statement” releases reactions and comments, whereas the most shared real news story on Facebook, history “Trump’s of corruption is mind-boggling. So why is Clinton received Post), Washington The by (published one?” corrupt the supposedly only 849,000 shares, reactions and comments. 19 Voters Sharing Over Twitter?” The Project on Computational Propaganda, Oxford University, March2017. 26, Economic Perspectives 31, no. 2 (spring 2017): 211-236. 18 Facebook,” BuzzFeed News, Nov. 16, 2016, https://www.buzzfeed.com/craigsilverman/viral-fake- election-news-outperformed-real-news-on-facebook?utm_term=.gqZNJZLVB9#.trKWAZD37q. This proliferation news of fake over social media accounts is especially 16 17 www.cjr.org/analysis/fake-news-facebook-audience-drudge-breitbart-study.php. The issue news of fake exists well beyond Facebook and has spilled over into other forms of social media as well. One study lookingaccounts Twitter at from Michigan voters in the first of November10 days 2016 discovered that newsfake was the most shared type of political content, finding that “the number of links junk to news alone is roughly equivalent the to number of links professionally to researched journalism.” We are goingWe keep our to attention on this form of news.We fake consider news is that simply biased or slanted be to a separate category, which we won’t focus on here. The main reason is think we that news bias, while a legitimate problem, hasbeen always with us varying to degrees. But completely fictitious or fabricated news stories, while also always with to us some degree, grown have more frequent in the last few years, especially in the 2016 campaign. Early reports news of fake dominating the 2016 election cycle often revolved For media. reports these social through of spread unmitigated the around example, one report from the Columbia Journalism Review found fake that news traffic was much more dependentFacebook on than “real news” traffic: “Nearly 30 percent of all news fake traffic couldFacebook,” be backlinked to whereas was that true only for about eight percent of real news traffic. readers.”

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION Combating conspiratorial beliefs (i.e., fake news) knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 12 with 24 This makes 20 and France, 23 Germany 22 the Netherlands, the 21 In another In study focusing on the French presidential 25 Overall, these studies seem show to news fake that during 26

http://comprop.oii.ox.ac.uk/2017/04/21/computational-propaganda-junk-news-and-the-french- http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/05/are-german-elections-the-next-frontier-of-russia-sponsored- Amy Mitchell et al., “The Modern News Consumer: News Attitudes and Practices in the Digital Clementine Desigaud et al., News “Junk and Bots During the French Presidential Election: What Are Xenia “Are Tan, German elections the next frontier of Russia-sponsored ‘fake news’?” CNBC, May 5, Lisa-Maria Neudert, Bence Kollanyi, and Philip N. Howard, News “Junk and Bots During the Cynthia Kroet, “Russia spread fake news during Dutch election: report,” Politico, April 4, 2017, http:// Mark Hosenball and Joseph Menn, “Experts say automated accounts sharing fake news ahead Robert Booth, “Truth seekers: inside the UK election’s fake news war room,” The Guardian, May 19, election/. 26 French Voters Sharing Over Twitter?” The Project on Computational Propaganda, Oxford University,2017, May 4, fake-news.html. 24 of French election,” Reuters, April 20, 2017, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election- socialmedia-idUSKBN17M31G. 25 German Federal Presidency Election: What Were German Voters Sharing Over Twitter?” http://comprop.oii.ox.ac.uk/2017/03/26/ The Project 2017, 27, March on Oxford University, Propaganda, Computational junk-news-and-bots-during-the-germany-federal-presidency-election-what-were-german-voters- sharing-over-twitter/. 22 www.politico.eu/article/russia-spread-fake-news-during-dutch-election-report-putin/. 23 2017, 20 Era,” Pew Research Center, July 2016, 7, http://www.journalism.org/2016/07/07/the-modern-news- consumer/ 21 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/19/truth-seekers-inside-the-uk-elections-fake- news-war-room. significant, considering that surveys consistently find more and more more and more find consistently surveys that significant, considering Americans are getting their news from those platforms. One survey conducted in early 2016 found 38 that percent of Americansget their news online (from “social media, websites/apps”), including half ofthose (50 percent) ages 18-29 and half of those percent) (49 ages 30-49. the news fake problem even more dire. The issue news of fake is so widespread it that has gone beyond America’s borders. Following a string of recent elections in Europe, reports have indicated news fake that attemptedto influence votersover the past year in the United Kingdom, runoff election, only six percentTwitter of links shared tolinked over “junk stories. news” election campaigns is a worry in other countries but the problem is worse in the United States. Several reports even sought have out the opinions of the public gauge to their views on news. fake Research A Pew Center report titled “Many Americans believe news fake is sowing confusion” reported on a survey fieldedafter much speculation surrounding Russian influence behind the creation and and creation the behind influence Russian surrounding speculation much countries these Although case. each in stories these of dissemination differenthave political and media cultures, and so will tackle news fake differently from the United States, it worthis noting somethat of the cursory, comparative reports news of fake in social media closely resemble some of the findings in the United States.example,For Twitter one studyuse in of the percent 20 nearly up made news junk found election presidential German of the links shared.

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION Combating conspiratorial beliefs (i.e., fake news) knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 13 30 27 Increasingly, people who people who Increasingly, 29 This sentiment has continued with others simply referring news to 28 http://www.thehill.com/homenews/campaign/334897-poll-majority-says-mainstream-media- Allcott and Gentzkow, “Social Media.” Jonathan Easley, “Poll: Majority says mainstream media publishes fake news,” The Hill, May 24, Nicholas Fandos, “10 key moments and more from Trump’s news conference,” The New York Times, Michael Barthel, Amy Mitchell and Jesse Holcomb, “Many Americans Believe Fake News Is Sowing they don’t as news. like fake One Harvard-Harris poll reported The by Hill found “65 that percent of voters believe there is a lotnews of fake in the mainstream media,” a figure including 80 percentRepublicans, of 60 percent Democrats. of percent 53 and independents of Jan. 11, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/11/us/politics/trump-news-conference-highlights. html. publishes-fake-news. 30 28 29 2017, 27 Confusion,” Pew Research Center, Dec. 15, 2016, http://www.journalism.org/2016/12/15/many- americans-believe-fake-news-is-sowing-confusion/. One of the greatest issues regarding the spread news of fake is it that makes it difficult for news media consumers to separate is what true fromis what false. one In early study about news fake in the 2016 presidential election, Allcott and Gentzkow found from a nationally representative post-election online survey Republicans that were less likely than Democrats believe to articles were that true. Similarly, the researchers discovered news fake that was much more problematic on the political right than it was on the left. In three final the in stories news election-related false 156 of collection their months before the election, stories fake they found and pro-Trump 115 only favored that 41 Hillary Clinton. there to Related being more many stories, the storiespro-Trump were shared 30 million times on social media, whereas the pro-Clinton stories were million shared times. only 7.6 Using their survey data in conjunction with their web browsing data, they determined that news fake remembered” 1.14 and about “saw American adult average the articles. Whether this exposure influencedvoting decisions is a separate The changing definition of news fake has complicated discussions of it. Then at “fake news” as CNN to referred famously Trump Donald President-elect a press conference, stating, organization’s “Your are terrible. fake … You news.” the presidential election, in early December 2016. Pew discovered that that discovered Pew 2016. December early in election, presidential the 64 percent of Americans believe “made-up news has caused a great deal of confusion about the basic facts of current events,” with even higher educated) college the among percent (67 educated highly the for figures and the wealthy (73 percent among those making $75,000 or more a year). Considering a lot of the conversations about focused news fake have on its spread on social media, it is interesting see to one that in three percent) (32 American adults they say “often see political fake news online” and nearly one in four percent) (23 admittedto sharing a “political news story online” they either knew the at time or found later out “was made up.” don’t trust confidence or have in the mainstream news mediaexpress that sayingby it is “fake news,” because phrase that is so widely used.is hard It tellto from polls such as this which people are reporting on how much they see news stories they simply don’t or like think are biased against them, and which are seeing stories are that “intentionally and verifiably false.”

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31 33

34 32 / Stanford History Education Group, “Evaluating Information: The Cornerstone of Civic Online Online Civic of Cornerstone The Information: “Evaluating Group, Education History Stanford Gordon Pennycook, Tyrone D. Cannon and David G. Rand, “Prior Exposure Increases Perceived Briony Swire et al., “Processing Political Misinformation: Comprehending the Trump Phenomenon,” Ibid.

In termsIn of consumers processing these news stories, empirical literature fake of effectiveness the that demonstrates election 2016 the on based news is conditioned on both source credibility and familiarity. First, source credibility—which trustworthiness—is expertise and on depends particularly experiment, one In environment. political polarized today’s in significant researchers found when that information comes from polarizing sources, co-partisan their with agree co-ideological or to tend producers.consumers oneIn poll study, respondents were provided a claim example, (for about vaccines causing autism) and randomly exposed either to a version where the claim was unattributed versionor a where the claimwas attributed to Trump-supportingDonald Trump. Republicans were more likely believe to claimsof misinformation namewas attachedto whenthem than Trump’s otherwise. Similarly, when claims were factual example, (for regarding the level of U.S. national debt), Democrats were less likely believe to the name was attachedinformationto it. when Trump’s While conversations many surrounding news fake focus on how it is spread 32 Royal Society Open Science 4 (2017): 2-21. 33 Accuracy of Fake News” (working paper, 2017). 34 sheg.stanford.edu. 2016, Reasoning,” 31 The ability discern to real from stories fake is particularly poor among youth. a largeIn study included that assessments 15 across middle school, high difference the between discerning of types on students college and school analysis), tweet and analysis homepage website (including content media Stanford researchers concluded: people’s “Young ability reason to about the information on the Internet can be summed up in one word: bleak.” Second, familiarity (brought about by prior exposure) has been found to to found been has exposure) prior by about (brought Second, familiarity significantly increase the perceivedaccuracy of a particular story(cf. the illusory truth effect). When comparing real and news,fake one study perceived its story and a of familiarity between correlation a discovered ultimatelyaccuracy, finding although that real news a higherhad overall rating than news, fake familiar news fake a higher had perceived accuracy rating than unfamiliar real news. just Even one exposure news a fake to story increases its perception and of accuracy, the effect is long-lasting. A second builtstudy, upon the first, established a causal link between familiarity and found design. It three-stage a using experimental by perceived accuracy familiaritythat caused an increase in perceived accuracy even if a warning was present (stating, “Disputed third by party fact-checkers”). As long as newsfake continues go to viral, there is significant evidence of many the that stories will continue be to perceived as true just virtue by of going viral. question, but this exposure doesreveal the breadth news of fake in 2016.

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION Combating conspiratorial beliefs (i.e., fake news) knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 15 This suggests that that suggests This 38 Conspiracy theories theories Conspiracy 36 have no basis have in fact, yet are spread 35 37 Uscinski and Parent, “American Conspiracy Theories.” Joseph E. Uscinski and Joseph M. Parent, “American Conspiracy Theories” (New York: Oxford Pennycook et al., “Prior Exposure” information. supporting “Prior al., et Pennycook J. Eric Oliver and Thomas J. Wood, “Conspiracy Theories and the Paranoid Style(s) of Mass Opinion,”

are surprisingly widely held in the U.S. One estimate, drawn from four repeated nationally representative surveys, finds halfthat of the American most The theory. conspiracy popular one least reports at public believing Obama “9/11 the conspiracy, truther” include theories conspiracy popular program. From government clandestine a as chemtrails “birtherism,” and clearer. becomes theories these in belief prompts what surveys, these Consistently across surveys, the greatest predictor of belief in conspiracy but conservatism, political or ignorance authoritarianism, not is theories rather “attractionto Manichean narratives,” which is measured as one’s agreement with the statement, “Politics is ultimately a struggle between good and evil.” widely, and many consumers are at risk to believe them. believe to risk at are consumers many and widely, Some stories fake are so elaborate they that might fairly be called conspiracy theories, conspiracy American of history book-length their In theories. the theory as conspiracy a describe Parent M. Joseph and Uscinski E. Joseph belief in the existence of “a secret arrangement between two or more actors usurpto political or violate economic established power, rights, hoard vital secrets, unlawfully or institutions.” government alter 35 36 University Press, 2014). 37 American Journal of Political Science 58, no. 4 (October 2014): 952-966. 38 Consistent with this finding, other research suggests a “conspiracy “conspiracy a suggests research other finding, this with Consistent creates spectrum, which typical ideological the onto mapped dimension” space for both left-leaning and right-leaning conspiracies. Seeking to understand this dimension, Uscinski and Parent write survey that data again and acrossideology are “flat predispositions conspiratorial that confirm status, socioeconomic low with those that find they Instead, partisanship.” who are less likely participate to in politics, and who are “more accepting of violence, less work apt to in financial services, government or the military” are more likely accept to conspiracy theories. (particularly throughsocial media), itis also important look to the at bipartisanreport.com’s as Reportssuch misinformation. this of content after Trump remove to authority legal Court grants Federal “Pennsylvania Russian meddling” dailyheadlines.net’s or “Election night: Hillary drunk, was got physical with Mook and Podesta” conspiracy theories’ and fake news’ greater prominence on the political right right political the on prominence greater news’ fake and theories’ conspiracy in the 2016 election not be may a typical resulted pattern. have It may from one or more of the unusual circumstances election: of that a Democratic candidate who was unusually unpopular and for had decades been the object services intelligence Russian of involvement theories, the or conspiracy of misinformation. spreading

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION Combating conspiratorial beliefs (i.e., fake news) knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 16 39 Considering the first group, government/ firstgroup, the Considering 40 Yet despite these policy recommendations from a from a recommendations policy these despite Yet 41 Google, which has close a monopoly to on internet 42 Barthel et al., “Sowing Confusion.” Matthew Baum, David Lazer and Nicco Mele, “Combating Fake News: An Agenda for Research and Uscinski and Parent, “American Conspiracy Theories.” TK 39 Action,” notes from conference at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and Northeastern University,2017. 40 41 42 However, these solutions raise the question of who is responsible for for responsible is who of question the raise solutions these However, preventing news fake from spreading. For what it’s worth, the public believes and sites networking officials, social government/politicians/elected that search engines, and members of the public are almost equally responsible for “preventing completely made-up news from gaining(45, attention” 42 43 percent,and respectively). Given all of this, how should the United States confront the challenge of media distrust a report In and news? fake produced a conference by sponsored Northeastern and Government School of Kennedy University’s Harvard by University titled “Combating news: fake an agenda for research and action,” including recommend First, they things. three propose professors of team a Second, politics.” in “misinformation of discussions in conservatives more they suggest “collaborating more closely with journalists in order the make to community- multidisciplinary “developing endorse Third, they ‘louder.’” truth wide shared resources for conducting academic research on the presence and dissemination of misinformation on social media platforms.” THE CHALLENGE OF FIGHTING NEWS FAKE SOCIAL OF ERA THE IN AND SHARING NEWS MEDIA DISTRUST politicians/elected officials, have already many spoken againstout the dangers news—for of fake example, Clinton came out with suggestions for the tech community implement—and to some even introduced have legislation try to handle to the issue e.g. (see California Assembly Bill 1104). the to secondTurning group, social networking sites and search engines, Facebook and Google already have pledged tackle to this problem. Facebook has announced feature “changes better … to Topics its to Trending promote articles.” news reliable variety of sources, others still there say is “not much” can that be done about theories. conspiracy

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION The challenge of fighting fake news in the era of social news sharing and media distrust knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 17 Time will tell if this is successful. hope We it is. But it runs the risk 43 Alex Hern, “Google acts against fake news on search engine,” The Guardian, April 25, 2017, https:// 43 www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/apr/25/google-launches-major-offensive-against-fake-news. searchin the United States, announced in April 2017 it that will try make to newsfake stories less prominent in its search results. will It tweak its search low-quality demote and pages “surface more authoritative to algorithm content.” of failing to stop inaccurate information while financially information smaller penalizing inaccurate stop to failing of news outlets aren’t that “authoritative” sources and thus are pushed lower in search results. it isFinally, useful be to clear about what isnot the solution. There is no way goto back the to era of limited media competition and no news sharing over social media. Any solution tries that turn to back the clock would limit free It disease. the than worse be would cure the that dramatically so speech might be possible reduce to partisan polarization (which fuels media distrust domain that In yet. solution the has one no but thinking), conspiratorial and as well, America can’t go back things the to way were 50 years ago. Parties were less polarized then because national Democrats allied had themselves Crow-supporting better be Jim country The with would Democrats. Southern off with a system in which the parties had less animosity(what public opinion without ideologically, were closer and partisanship”) “affective call scholars either party regressing their in positions equality. racial on more and outlets more America responsible news needs Ultimately, responsible political parties. Both are necessary clamp to down on political misinformation. news organizations Even a partisan have that slant should see it that is not in their long-term interest spread to false stories. when Even they are debunked those by outlets, simply talking about them all can at leave “belief echoes” influence that people. And these false stories reduce trust in all media sources. Political parties need realize to there that are things worse than losing an election. Americans need cut to down on their most partisan impulses, whether it is trying attack to and delegitimize the news media or winking and nodding false at news stories attack that their opponents. These things degrade the quality of democracy for everyone.

Baum, Matthew, David Lazer and Nicco Mele. “Combating News: Fake An Agenda for Research and Action.” Notes from conference held the at Harvard (2017). University Northeastern and Government School of Kennedy Berinsky, Adam “Rumors J. and Health CareReform: Experiments in Political Misinformation.” British Journal of Political no. 2: 241-262. Science 47, Booth, Robert. seekers: “Truth Inside the election’s UK news fake room.” war https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/ The Guardian, 2017. 19, May may/19/truth-seekers-inside-the-uk-elections-fake-news-war-room. Toward Attitudes in Trends Americans’ Institutions: “Confidencein for Press-NORC Associated The Center Business.” Media, and Government, http://www.apnorc.org/projects/ Public(2015). AffairsResearch (APNORC) percent20Reports/confidence-in-institutions-trends-in-Pages/HTML americans-attitudes-toward-government-media-and-business0310-2333. aspx. Andrew, DouglasDaniller, Allen, and Ashley Diana C.Mutz. Tallevi “Measuring in the PressTrust in a Changing Media Environment.” Communication Methods and Measures 11, no. 1 (2017): 76-85. Desigaud, Clementine, Philip N. Howard, Samantha Bence Bradshaw, Kollanyi News and Bots During the “Junk Frenchand Gillian Presidential Bolsover. Election: What Are French Sharing Voters Over Twitter?” The Project on Computational Propaganda, Oxford University 4, 2017). (May http:// comprop.oii.ox.ac.uk/2017/04/21/computational-propaganda-junk-news- and-the-french-election/. WORKS CITED Allcott, Hunt, and Matthew Gentzkow. “Social NewsMedia in Fake the and 2016 Election.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 31, no. 2 (spring 2017): 211- 236. Arceneaux, Kevin, Martin Johnson “Polarized and Chad Murphy. Political The Exposure.” Selective and Hostility, Media Oppositional Communication, Journal no. of Politics 1 (January 174-186. 2012): 74, Ariely, Gal. “Trusting the Press and Political A Conditional Trust: Relationship.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 25, no. 3 (August 2015): 351- 367. Barthel, Michael, Amy Mitchell and Jesse Holcomb. “Many Americans Believe News Is SowingFake Confusion.” Research Pew Center (Dec. http:// 15, 2016). www.journalism.org/2016/12/15/many-americans-believe-fake-news-is- sowing-confusion/

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Source: 1973–2016 General Social Surveys FigureNote: graphsconfidence average across all respondents in the given GSS survey. Responses are coded so 1 indicates that “a great deal,” .5 indicates “only some,” and 0 indicates “hardly any” trust. The y-axis indicates the when sample (weighted) across confidencewhole the average the calculation average the in included Institutions way. this coded are responses are all institutions, other than the press, where confidencewas probed in every GSS survey from 2016. 1973 to Other Institutions, 1973–2016 Institutions, Other FIGURE 1: to Press Compared the in Confidence

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION Figures knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 23 Source: 1973–2016 General Social Surveys FigureNote: graphsconfidence average across all respondents in the given GSS survey. Responses are coded so 1 indicates that “a great deal,” .5 indicates “only some,” and 0 indicates “hardly any” trust. The y-axis indicates the when sample (weighted) across confidencewhole the average the calculation average the in included Institutions way. this coded are responses are all institutions, other than the press, where confidencewas probed in every GSS survey from 2016. 1973 to FIGURE 2: 2: FIGURE to Press compared the in Confidence among Institutions Other in Confidence Democrats 1973–2016 and Republicans,

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION Figures knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 24 a nonresident senior fellow the at Brookings Institution. His book, “Why Policy and the department of government at Georgetown University and and University Georgetown at government of department the and Policy Prize from Harvard University’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy. Georgetown University. AUTHORS’ BIOGRAPHIES AUTHORS’ Alex Podkul is a Ph.D. candidate in the department of government at at government of department the in candidate Ph.D. a is Podkul Alex Americans the Media Hate Matters,” and How It won the Goldsmith Book Jonathan Ladd is an associate professor in the McCourt School of Public —

THE SPREAD OF INACCURATE POLITICAL INFORMATION Authors’ Biographies knightfoundation.org | @knightfdn IN THE ERA OF DISTRUSTED NEWS MEDIA 25 / 25 Suite 3300 Suite Miami, 33131–2349 FL 200 S. Biscayne Blvd. Telephone: (305) 908–2600 (305) Telephone: JOHN S. AND JAMES L. FOUNDATION KNIGHT

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