Technology Dynamics and Transition Management in China Dynamics: Concepts and Theories

Social group Solution Problem Social Solution group Problem Solution Social group Artefact Problem Problem Social Group Social group Social Solution group Problem Solution Problem Prof. Mi Jianing School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology

Dr Wim Ravesteijn Section and Sustainable Development, faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology

January 8, 2010

1 Technology Dynamics Itaipu Dam

Background: development; “Brazil energy superpower” Output: 93% Of the energy consumed by Paraguay and 20% of that consumed by Brazil (2005) Context: negotiations and agreements between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina Problem: 2000-2001 Drought resulted in recurring blackouts and rationing of electricity usage Social impact: approximately 10,000 families were dislodged from their plots. Some of these families eventually came to be http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Itaipu2.JPG members of one of Brazil's largest social movements : the Landless Workers Movement.

January 8, 2010 2 Technology Dynamics What is happening here?

January 8, 2010 3 Technology Dynamics What is happening here?

Does technology* development take place autonomously or is technology shaped by its social context?

In other words: do engineers take the lead in technology development or do they have to do what society asks them to do?

* Technology = product, man-made artifact or technical system, hardware

January 8, 2010 4 Technology Dynamics Visions

Technological determinism / Technology push: Technology determines society Technology is always a positive sum game Technology development is autonomous & linear

Social constructivism / society demands: Society and social groups determine technology; e.g. SCOT- model

Co-evolution of technology & society E.g. socio-technical (Hughes)

January 8, 2010 5 Technology Dynamics Autonomous Technology

Every new generation has some creative geniuses. They invent some new (by there more than average intelligence or by pure coincidence). The act of invention is independent of society. Succesful inventions diffuse in society and, thereupon, transform society.

January 8, 2010 6 Technology Dynamics Autonomous Technology

Technology is not accidental but depending on scientific progress. As scientific progress is the result of its own dynamics, and independent of societal change, is independent of society. (E.g. Dijksterhuis, 1950 and Koyre, 1943).

January 8, 2010 7 Technology Dynamics Autonomous Technology

Scientific knowledge accumulates

Technology is applied science

Resources for technological innovation are growing forever

Technology is ever improving

Technological autonomy → Technological determinism

Jacques Ellul: Traditional technology vs. modern technology (1960s)

January 8, 2010 8 Technology Dynamics Traditional Technology according to Ellul:

Limited in its application (technologies were often based on specific local resources and therefore hardly transferable);

Dependent on limited resources and on ‘skill’ (skills like making and repairing tools, but also being able to judge weather conditions, or the tides);

Local in its character, i.e., technological solutions for specific problems were embedded in local culture and traditions.

January 8, 2010 9 Technology Dynamics Ellul characterizes modern technology by:

Automatism, i.e. there is only one ‘best’ way to solve a problem, and this technology seems to be compelling, everywhere on the planet; Self increase, i.e. a new technology reinforces the growth of other technologies: this leads to exponential growth; Indivisibility: the technological way of life must be accepted completely, including its good and bad sides; Cohesion, i.e. technologies that are used in various different areas have much in common; Universalism, i.e. technology is geographically as well as qualitatively omnipresent.

January 8, 2010 10 Unabomber Attacks

January 8, 2010 11 Unabomber Attacks Unabomber Reasoning

The car increases our freedom by increased freedom of movement By having a car, we can do our shopping in malls Small neighbourhood shops disappear We therefore are forced to have a car So a technology like the car limits our liberty

Implications of this view for possibility to steer technology development?

January 8, 2010 12 Technology Dynamics The linear model of technology development

Development First Development Broad of new Introduction of new product Diffusion Effects Fundamental in market or system in society knowledge niche

January 8, 2010 13 Technology Dynamics

Various social groups are involved with technology Every group has a specific view of a certain technology Example: PC. • secretary: type writer • book keeper: administration tool • at home: communication tool

Technologies are shaped by demand / influence of relevant social groups

January 8, 2010 14 Technology Dynamics SCOT-model: Social Construction of Technology

Artifact

Relevant social groups

Interpretative flexibility

Inclusion of new groups

Technological frame

January 8, 2010 15 Technology Dynamics SCOT-model: Social Construction of Technology

Social group Solution Social group Solution Social Solution group Artefact Problem Problem

Social group Problem Social group Solution Problem Social Solution Group

Problem Problem

January 8, 2010 16 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle

January 8, 2010 17 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle

Boneshaker Macmillan’s bicycle

Guilmet’s bicycle

Penny Farthing Xtraordinary

Geared Facile

Star

Club Safety Lawson’s Bicyclette

January 8, 2010 18 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle

1818 Draisienne

Two-wheeled rider-propelled machine

January 8, 2010 19 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle

http://www.phys.uri.edu/~tony/bicycle/draisien.gif

January 8, 2010 20 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle

1861 Michaux

January 8, 2010 21 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle

January 8, 2010 22 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle

1874 Ariel

January 8, 2010 23 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle from 1879 Safety bicycles

1885 Rover Safety Bicycle http://www.phys.uri.edu/~tony/bicycle/rover.gif

January 8, 2010 24 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle

1890s Ordinary

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/co mmons/thumb/a/a7/Ordinary_bicycle01.jp g/180px-Ordinary_bicycle01.jpg

January 8, 2010 25 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle

Penny farthing, up to 1.5 m

Line of development guided by a speed wish sustained by young, sportive men for whom the danger of falling was part of the fun 1893 High wheeler

http://www.bikes.msu.edu/history/web/hi- wheeler-1-P3019443.JPG

January 8, 2010 26 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle

Safety bike Reflectors for night riding Women, recreation cyclists, older people were all interested in the development of a safe and comfortable bike (with brakes, rear wheel drive, pneumatic tires etc.) Ultimately, interpretative flexibility declined: one (safety) bike, used by all actors, the old and the (included) new

actors http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bicycle.jpg

January 8, 2010 27 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle

January 8, 2010 28 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle

Solution!

January 8, 2010 29 Technology Dynamics Example: Development of the Bicycle, SCOT-model: concepts

Artifact: bike

Relevant social groups: esp. sportive, young men Inclusion of new groups: e.g. women and old people Interpretative flexibility: speed vs safe transportation

January 8, 2010 30 Technology Dynamics Technological frame

Mindset for design and the solution of problems; mechanical engineering frame

Technological regime: all rules steering engineering design

January 8, 2010 31 Technology Dynamics Technological regime: Moore’s law http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/co mputer/images/moores_law.jpg Every 18 months: twice as many IC’s on a chip

January 8, 2010 32 Technology Dynamics Technological regimes

Rules for technological acting:

Design demands and design tools, educational programme

Beliefs and expectations, e.g. Moore’s Law

Guiding principles, e.g. digital solutions are preferable

January 8, 2010 33 Technology Dynamics Perspectives

• Actor perceptions, embedded in society and culture

• Engineers regimes, embedded in technology, society and culture

• Other regimes, e.g. political regimes

January 8, 2010 34 Technology Dynamics Regimes

Social-political regimes, e.g. (neo-) colonial policy: exploitation Æ welfare Æ development cooperation

Techno-economic regimes, e.g. key technologies with regard to industrial revolution (steam, electricity, ICT)

January 8, 2010 35 Technology Dynamics Sociotechnical systems

Artifact, e.g. sluice

Complex artifact, e.g. sluice complex

Technical system, e.g. irrigation system of canals and structures

Sociotechnical system, e.g. system of irrigation and management or network of such systems

January 8, 2010 36 Technology Dynamics Electricity System

Universal supply system Berlin 1930

January 8, 2010 37 Technology Dynamics Sociotechnical Systems

A system is constituted of related parts or components These components are connected: the state, or activity, of one component influences the state, or activity, of other components in the system Components are often centrally controlled Limits are established by the extent of this control Focus is on optimizing the system's performance and on directing the system toward the achievement of goals Systems reflect and influence their context, but they also develop an internal dynamic: system dynamics vs construction

January 8, 2010 38 Technology Dynamics Development

Systems undergo change and development in stages: invention, development, innovation, growth, competition, consolidation and transfer

System mechanisms drive system development: reverse salients, momentum, load factor, economic mix.

System stages characterized by typical actors like Inventor- entrepreneurs, Financier-entrepreneurs and Manager-entrepreneurs / or typical groups of actors / or specific technological regimes

January 8, 2010 39 Sociotechnical Systems System Development and

January 8, 2010 40 Sociotechnical Systems System Development Mechanisms

Momentum: mass, velocity, direction (capital, specific skills, institutionalization, culture)

Reverse salient Æ critical problems

Load factor

Economic mix

January 8, 2010 41 Sociotechnical Systems

A reverse salient is a part of the system that is falling behind in its development. It is a nuisance for the system, and might be interpreted differently by various actors., e.g. traffic congestion

A reverse salient might be slumbering or critical

The systems innovative capabilities are directed towards the reverse salients

To attack them successfully, reverse salients have to be reformulated as ‘critical problems’

January 8, 2010 42 Sociotechnical Systems Critical Problem

Reformulation of problem in do-able terms

More than one translation

Translation involves creativity

A good translation greatly increases the likelihood of a solution

Failure to formulate critical problem might stimulate alternative systems

January 8, 2010 43 Sociotechnical Systems Example of Reverse Salient

Edison could only supply nearby down town areas with direct current because of high transmission losses

Several critical problems can be formulated, e.g. Reducing transmission losses Building cost efficient small scale power stations

Result: new system based on AC: Westinghouse

January 8, 2010 44 Sociotechnical Systems Applications

Other infrasystems like: Communication systems: post, telegraph, telephone, telex, fax, mobile telephone as well as papers, radio, television Energy systems: gas, oil, nuclear energy, coal, city heating (beside electricity) Transport systems: shipping, airliners, roads, railways Irrigation, drinking water, sewage Technical systems like radar, space, systems for organ transplantation etc. Production and distribution systems, e.g. cars

January 8, 2010 45 Sociotechnical Systems

Sociotechnical systems have developed since the end of the 19th century

According to Thomas Hughes: Have superseded politics and the economy as the main shaping factors of technology and society. Image: amazon.co.uk

January 8, 2010 46 Sociotechnical Systems Dutch water system

Polder based administration prevented the solution of problems with big rivers in the 19th Century

January 8, 2010 47 Sociotechnical Systems Dutch water system

Polder based administration prevented the solution of problems with big rivers in the 19th Century:

Draining Æ milling

Reverse salient in water protection system Critical problem: dykes, water division of water, canalization? Ultimate solution was canalization, enabled by another management system

January 8, 2010 48 Sociotechnical Systems Dutch water system

Advanced system building through regime change

Big river problems constituted a reverse salient in water protection system Polder based administration prevented the solution of these problems in the 18th C Æ Change in the political landscape brought the solution: French occupation led to national water agency and strategy Critical problem: dykes, water division of water, canalization? Ultimate solution was canalization, enabled by national management system

January 8, 2010 49 Sociotechnical Systems Dutch water system

Open-system building: Oosterscheldekering Society adjusts

http://www.paulvermast.nl/wp/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/oosterscheldekering-met-storm.jpg http://static.flickr.com/29/39804088_aad4bad61b_o.jpg

January 8, 2010 50 Sociotechnical Systems Control Dilemma

Systems theory: in the initial stages the social environment shapes socio-technical system development, later the system shapes society; both in relative terms Control dilemma: ….attempting to control a technology is difficult, and not rarely impossible, because during its early stages, when it can be controlled, not enough can be known about its harmful social consequences to warrant controlling its development; but by the time these consequences are apparent, control has become costly and slow. Collingridge (1980)

January 8, 2010 51 Sociotechnical Systems Water Management Regimes

January 8, 2010 52 Sociotechnical Systems Push vs. Pull Debate

Technology push vs market pull / social needs Sometimes technology develops more quickly than demand / society, sometimes less quickly Sometimes technology adjusts itself to demand / society, sometimes society adjusts itself to new technology New technologies often used in another way than meant → change of technology through use / society

Technology and society develop hand in hand

January 8, 2010 53 Sociotechnical Systems Push, Pull and Social Construction

Push: STE-complex Military-industrial complex: defense, space travel and indutstry (Military = niche market) ÆSocial constructions (no laws of nature)

Pull: Market demand Social problems like sustainability problems ÆAlso social constructions (perceptions of needs and problems)

January 8, 2010 54 Sociotechnical Systems Co-construction and co-evolution: actors, systems and regimes

Actors, engineers and social actors, display agency, determined and controlled by factors, esp.:

Socio-technical systems, hard Ware, connecting nature and society Technological regimes, software, connecting culture and technology Value and philosophical systems, software, connecting actors, society and culture

January 8, 2010 55 Group assignment

Investigate the background of China’s water problems:

What causes can be distinguished? Which historical solutions have been applied? Which processes of variation and selection could be distinguished?

January 8, 2010 56