Transcript: Q&A Southeastern Europe: The Road Forward HE Rosen Plevneliev President of the Republic of Bulgaria Chair: Matt Frei Europe Editor and Presenter, Channel 4 News 19 March 2014 The views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of Chatham House, its staff, associates or Council. Chatham House is independent and owes no allegiance to any government or to any political body. It does not take institutional positions on policy issues. This document is issued on the understanding that if any extract is used, the author(s)/ speaker(s) and Chatham House should be credited, preferably with the date of the publication or details of the event. Where this document refers to or reports statements made by speakers at an event every effort has been made to provide a fair representation of their views and opinions, but the ultimate responsibility for accuracy lies with this document’s author(s). The published text of speeches and presentations may differ from delivery. Transcript: Southeastern Europe: The Road Forward: Q&A SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE: THE ROAD FORWARD: Q&A Matt Frei: When I woke up this morning and I was trying to work out what to ask you first, a wire pinged up on my phone. The United States Navy today started a naval exercise together with the navy of your country and neighbouring Romania. In your speech you referred again and again, without naming Russia at first, to threats from the east and eastern neighbours. So I want to hear from you whether you think that there is a genuine danger that this crisis in Crimea will spread to your region. HE Rosen Plevneliev: Very important lessons should be drawn from what happens now in Crimea, because I will share with you that what bothers me is the question, who’s next? Is there someone who’s going to be next? What will happen in the future? We hope that, as we have seen that Russia is pushing to the limit, that there will be limits. But if you see a red line crossed and that is the line of where you violate the very basic foundations of international law, then the question is, are we going to have the scenario of pushing to the limit but staying within the limits, what Russia does? Or we have a scenario where we have a game-changer. We have a new situation in Europe. By violating the very basis of international law, I am afraid that Russia is telling us that the game is changing. Matt Frei: When you say, who will be next, are you talking about other parts of Ukraine? Are you talking about other countries? Be more specific. HE Rosen Plevneliev: I am an engineer, and I am a president, but let me ask a logical question as an engineer: do we have Russian minorities in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia? Yes, we do. Is it possible that they will call Moscow and then Moscow will send troops and then cut some of the territories? Is that possible in the 21st century? I don’t think that is possible. I don’t think this is going to come. But it is the same what happened in Ukraine. You have a country which has its territorial integrity. You have a country, with all its economic problems, that is www.chathamhouse.org 2 Transcript: Southeastern Europe: The Road Forward: Q&A a sovereign state. You have an agreement in 1993 and 1994 in Budapest, where actually we should remember that Ukraine was a nuclear power and they agreed on disarmament only because they were guaranteed, and many leaders of the world put their signatures on that agreement in 1994 in Budapest. And I am asking a logical question. Let us talk about India, let us talk about Pakistan. Are they nuclear-armed? Yes. How can they go for disarmament procedures? Who is going to guarantee them, based on the fact of what happens today in Ukraine? Ukraine was guaranteed and 20 years later it is all gone. So we need to understand that we have a game-changer, with huge implications for the world and not just for Europe and southeast Europe. I’m not saying that the Baltic countries are next. I’m not saying that parts of Moldova and the others. But what I am saying is that we see the wording in Russia and on the ground in Russia about violating very basic laws, about something which we all hoped that it is a red line not to be crossed. I think that this aggressive approach could and will continue. Matt Frei: As someone who kind of lives on the sharper end of the region, as it were, do you think that the European Union – a body that your country belongs to – that Brussels, the leadership of the EU, has done enough to put red lines in the sand or in the swamp? HE Rosen Plevneliev: Up to now, yes. But if we’re talking about pushing to the limit, the question is: who defines the limit, so that this limit is not going to be crossed? I truly believe that the Western world defines the limitations. Matt Frei: But it hasn’t worked so far. HE Rosen Plevneliev: Yes, but we have so far – talking about Ukraine, yes, but talking about southeast Europe – southeast Europe is on the right path. If we are asking the question of who is next, I might think that could be southeast Europe next, just because what we see is that the Russian-based model of oligarch-based www.chathamhouse.org 3 Transcript: Southeastern Europe: The Road Forward: Q&A economy, of dependent media, of using the dependencies from the old secret services in the region – which all communicated with the KGB, no matter if this is the Securitate from Romania or State Security from Bulgaria or the Serbian [indiscernible] or the others. Those dependencies will be used in order to – and we see, how should I say, two different cultures, two different worlds that are going to find, I hope, the balance. Matt Frei: You said in your speech that you hope the EU and NATO would have a more visible presence anyway in your neck of the woods. In that sense, this crisis is a bit of a gift, isn’t it? Because it’s a very strong argument for you to achieve precisely those goals. HE Rosen Plevneliev: Absolutely. I am a big believer in southeast Europe. I truly hope that even the agenda for the next NATO Summit here in the UK in September could be and will be changed. Let me mention the fact that if you look today at the geopolitical situation, for example, on the Adriatic coast, we have Montenegro, which is the only one who is not a member of NATO; below we have Albania, who is a NATO member state; and on top of that we have Croatia, which is a member state. I would strongly encourage, as a lesson learned from the situation we have today, that Montenegro will be accelerated into NATO. We have a pro-NATO government, pro-Europe government. If not, if people are disappointed by knowing that today Russia is investing in Montenegro, buying real estate, buying banks, buying companies, sending tourism and many other industries there. We need to take a decision. If we are late, we might end up with a Russian base in the Adriatic. Matt Frei: Are you serious? HE Rosen Plevneliev: No, I am not serious, I am logical. www.chathamhouse.org 4 Transcript: Southeastern Europe: The Road Forward: Q&A Matt Frei: So 58 per cent of people in your country, according to an opinion poll out yesterday, don’t seem to agree with you on this. They say that EU sanctions, Western sanctions against Russia, are a bad idea. They don’t want those sanctions. Are they wrong? HE Rosen Plevneliev: Sometimes politicians should be brave enough to take right and wise decisions, even if it’s not so wise on a day-to-day politics, and not to look at the ratings and rates of acceptance. I consider myself as a bit of a different politician. I just don’t want and I’m not thinking about being re-elected. But I want, in those five years of term which I have, to serve my nation as efficiently as possible and in as honest a way as possible. I need to be honest, which tells me that I have to tell the truth about the problems. Because what we learn in the European Union today is that when we have been shifting the problems, then we created huge problems. Just remember the Greek microeconomic indicators in Eurostat. Just remember the situation of many other countries with their banks, with their public debts, with their regions which were full of debt. When we were shifting and hiding problems, we were worsening the situation in the European Union. A lesson drawn for me and learned for me is that the only way to solve your problems is not to have them. And yes, we have a problem in southeast Europe with some Russian model taking decisions in the economies, and that needs to be addressed. Matt Frei: Do you think that some of the problems that we’re encountering now with the Ukraine crisis could have been avoided if the European Union and indeed Washington had been better at understanding Russia’s view of the world, understanding Russia’s motivation in acting in this crisis? HE Rosen Plevneliev: We need to wake up by understanding not just that the world is changing very fast and nobody is waiting for us, but also that we are facing a new reality.