Transcript: Q&A Southeastern Europe: The Road Forward

HE Rosen Plevneliev President of the Republic of Bulgaria

Chair: Matt Frei Europe Editor and Presenter, Channel 4 News

19 March 2014

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Transcript: Southeastern Europe: The Road Forward: Q&A

SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE: THE ROAD FORWARD: Q&A

Matt Frei: When I woke up this morning and I was trying to work out what to ask you first, a wire pinged up on my phone. The United States Navy today started a naval exercise together with the navy of your country and neighbouring Romania. In your speech you referred again and again, without naming Russia at first, to threats from the east and eastern neighbours. So I want to hear from you whether you think that there is a genuine danger that this crisis in Crimea will spread to your region.

HE Rosen Plevneliev: Very important lessons should be drawn from what happens now in Crimea, because I will share with you that what bothers me is the question, who’s next? Is there someone who’s going to be next? What will happen in the future? We hope that, as we have seen that Russia is pushing to the limit, that there will be limits. But if you see a red line crossed and that is the line of where you violate the very basic foundations of international law, then the question is, are we going to have the scenario of pushing to the limit but staying within the limits, what Russia does? Or we have a scenario where we have a game-changer. We have a new situation in Europe. By violating the very basis of international law, I am afraid that Russia is telling us that the game is changing.

Matt Frei: When you say, who will be next, are you talking about other parts of Ukraine? Are you talking about other countries? Be more specific.

HE Rosen Plevneliev: I am an engineer, and I am a president, but let me ask a logical question as an engineer: do we have Russian minorities in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia? Yes, we do. Is it possible that they will call Moscow and then Moscow will send troops and then cut some of the territories? Is that possible in the 21st century? I don’t think that is possible. I don’t think this is going to come. But it is the same what happened in Ukraine. You have a country which has its territorial integrity. You have a country, with all its economic problems, that is

www.chathamhouse.org 2 Transcript: Southeastern Europe: The Road Forward: Q&A a sovereign state. You have an agreement in 1993 and 1994 in Budapest, where actually we should remember that Ukraine was a nuclear power and they agreed on disarmament only because they were guaranteed, and many leaders of the world put their signatures on that agreement in 1994 in Budapest. And I am asking a logical question. Let us talk about India, let us talk about Pakistan. Are they nuclear-armed? Yes. How can they go for disarmament procedures? Who is going to guarantee them, based on the fact of what happens today in Ukraine? Ukraine was guaranteed and 20 years later it is all gone.

So we need to understand that we have a game-changer, with huge implications for the world and not just for Europe and southeast Europe. I’m not saying that the Baltic countries are next. I’m not saying that parts of Moldova and the others. But what I am saying is that we see the wording in Russia and on the ground in Russia about violating very basic laws, about something which we all hoped that it is a red line not to be crossed. I think that this aggressive approach could and will continue.

Matt Frei: As someone who kind of lives on the sharper end of the region, as it were, do you think that the European Union – a body that your country belongs to – that Brussels, the leadership of the EU, has done enough to put red lines in the sand or in the swamp?

HE Rosen Plevneliev: Up to now, yes. But if we’re talking about pushing to the limit, the question is: who defines the limit, so that this limit is not going to be crossed? I truly believe that the Western world defines the limitations.

Matt Frei: But it hasn’t worked so far.

HE Rosen Plevneliev: Yes, but we have so far – talking about Ukraine, yes, but talking about southeast Europe – southeast Europe is on the right path. If we are asking the question of who is next, I might think that could be southeast Europe next, just because what we see is that the Russian-based model of oligarch-based www.chathamhouse.org 3 Transcript: Southeastern Europe: The Road Forward: Q&A economy, of dependent media, of using the dependencies from the old secret services in the region – which all communicated with the KGB, no matter if this is the Securitate from Romania or State Security from Bulgaria or the Serbian [indiscernible] or the others. Those dependencies will be used in order to – and we see, how should I say, two different cultures, two different worlds that are going to find, I hope, the balance.

Matt Frei: You said in your speech that you hope the EU and NATO would have a more visible presence anyway in your neck of the woods. In that sense, this crisis is a bit of a gift, isn’t it? Because it’s a very strong argument for you to achieve precisely those goals.

HE Rosen Plevneliev: Absolutely. I am a big believer in southeast Europe. I truly hope that even the agenda for the next NATO Summit here in the UK in September could be and will be changed. Let me mention the fact that if you look today at the geopolitical situation, for example, on the Adriatic coast, we have Montenegro, which is the only one who is not a member of NATO; below we have Albania, who is a NATO member state; and on top of that we have Croatia, which is a member state. I would strongly encourage, as a lesson learned from the situation we have today, that Montenegro will be accelerated into NATO. We have a pro-NATO government, pro-Europe government. If not, if people are disappointed by knowing that today Russia is investing in Montenegro, buying real estate, buying banks, buying companies, sending tourism and many other industries there. We need to take a decision. If we are late, we might end up with a Russian base in the Adriatic.

Matt Frei: Are you serious?

HE Rosen Plevneliev: No, I am not serious, I am logical.

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Matt Frei: So 58 per cent of people in your country, according to an opinion poll out yesterday, don’t seem to agree with you on this. They say that EU sanctions, Western sanctions against Russia, are a bad idea. They don’t want those sanctions. Are they wrong?

HE Rosen Plevneliev: Sometimes politicians should be brave enough to take right and wise decisions, even if it’s not so wise on a day-to-day politics, and not to look at the ratings and rates of acceptance. I consider myself as a bit of a different politician. I just don’t want and I’m not thinking about being re-elected. But I want, in those five years of term which I have, to serve my nation as efficiently as possible and in as honest a way as possible. I need to be honest, which tells me that I have to tell the truth about the problems. Because what we learn in the European Union today is that when we have been shifting the problems, then we created huge problems. Just remember the Greek microeconomic indicators in Eurostat. Just remember the situation of many other countries with their banks, with their public debts, with their regions which were full of debt. When we were shifting and hiding problems, we were worsening the situation in the European Union. A lesson drawn for me and learned for me is that the only way to solve your problems is not to have them. And yes, we have a problem in southeast Europe with some Russian model taking decisions in the economies, and that needs to be addressed.

Matt Frei: Do you think that some of the problems that we’re encountering now with the Ukraine crisis could have been avoided if the European Union and indeed Washington had been better at understanding Russia’s view of the world, understanding Russia’s motivation in acting in this crisis?

HE Rosen Plevneliev: We need to wake up by understanding not just that the world is changing very fast and nobody is waiting for us, but also that we are facing a new reality. On the other side, when the European Union was conveniently closeting itself with its own problems, of course nobody is waiting for – it’s the same in business. If somebody is getting weaker, some other companies are getting stronger. It’s the same in politics. If you are disappointing your voters, if you www.chathamhouse.org 5 Transcript: Southeastern Europe: The Road Forward: Q&A are giving a free move to another, it will be taken in. You will always find somebody who is short-term thinking and willing to position itself, playing with people’s fears, creating a new virtual reality, promising all the big things in the world. I truly believe that the European Union should take bold decisions and in the long-term wise and right decisions, because in the short term I don’t see improvement.

Matt Frei: Every European leader, and indeed President Obama and the United States, even John McCain actually, have said there is no military option in this.

HE Rosen Plevneliev: Absolutely. No war, and not going back to the Cold War.

Matt Frei: On that note, let’s open it up to the audience. Please.

Question 1: [off-mike] You said that the countries of southeastern Europe share [indiscernible]. What are your views on energy diversification for Bulgaria and for the region? Alternative gas pipelines, fracking. Are your views on these issues shared by the government?

HE Rosen Plevneliev: Let me give you some facts about Bulgaria. This might tell you also something about the big picture, how Russia addresses and how they act and what they do.

We celebrate 25 years of democratic transformation in my country and in all the other Central European countries. Day one of democracy in Bulgaria, Russia increased by 300 per cent export duties. So one and a half years later, our economy completely collapsed, in 1992-1993. There was chaos, there were problems. Then in 1997, the next democratic government elected in Bulgaria, the price of gas for Bulgaria was increased on the very week a new democratic government was elected, $200 up. So from $400 to $600. When you depend on one pipe and one gas supplier, such things can happen. How www.chathamhouse.org 6 Transcript: Southeastern Europe: The Road Forward: Q&A can you be competitive, for example, with Hungary or Slovakia, which are well integrated into the European network and because of that have different suppliers? Because of that, they get a much different approach on gas pricing and supplies.

We should always remember that in the very cold days, in the very cold winter of 2009, Russia was again fighting with Ukraine about gas supplies and contracts. They decided to stop gas supplies to some of the European countries, including Bulgaria. Now imagine you are Bulgaria: do you have a contract with Gazprom? Yes, we do. Do you expect that you will get your supplies based on international law of contracts? Of course you do. But why is it then possible that in the coldest days, because of a strike with a third party, you will be stopped and your companies will not be working for three weeks, because there is no gas, and your people will be staying in cold because there is no gas.

Lessons learned from such behaviour are telling us that the biggest priority for Southeast Europe – what was achieved in the Visegrad 4 but not in my region – is to link energy networks, create opportunities for alternative gas supplies. We will welcome every initiative. We are working on that. For example, today Bulgaria is a bit better prepared than in 2009 because we are working on gas interconnector with Romania, gas interconnector with Turkey, Greece and Serbia. But they are still not there physically, but we are moving on that.

Question 2: I’d like your take on a couple of quick points. First of all, as we are all aware, there have been major protests taking place in Sofia for the last 18 months. This has extended to blockades of parliament, people actually committing suicide in public. I would like your take on exactly why these protests are taking place. Secondly, I think we’d all agree that a few major, high-profile corruption trials would do no end of good in improving Bulgaria’s image abroad. How feasible is this given that the biggest thieves in Bulgaria are also among some of the most well-connected?

HE Rosen Plevneliev: In the previous year Bulgarian people get on the street and they have demanded a clear change in the way the justice system works, the way institutions work. As people pointed – and that’s one of the dangers – they pointed at institutions being more for [indiscernible] than behind-curtain

www.chathamhouse.org 7 Transcript: Southeastern Europe: The Road Forward: Q&A politics, behind them. I am trying to do my best to listen to people and, again, not hide the problems, put them on the daily order, as civil society was willing to do, in order to be addressed and hopefully solved. How can you fight corruption? Open government policies, a new government. How is corruption coming in? It’s very simple. When millions of Bulgarians are going to the bureaucrats to ask for construction permits and everything else. Can you do it on the internet? Yes, of course. Are there solutions? Of course. I’m preaching and praying and pushing. If that happens, then you have millions of Bulgarians who are not going to the ministries but sending online and there is no corruption in the low and middle management. Then you have proper institutions. Then you have people working in the institutions who have the self-confidence that they do something right.

I am a true believer of the constant improvement approach, address and work. It’s about really understanding that, for example, there is another danger in Bulgaria today: that we are talking again about reform in the Bulgarian judicial system. Every time we had problems in the judicial system, politicians are promising reform. Five times we had problems and five times the reform was promised. I go and say: you guys, you know what? Stop with those reforms because you have five times promised but we don’t see a change. What we need to do is a very simple thing: bring results. The justice system should not be reformed for a sixth time, but should be responsible to bring results, to bring justice for people.

I’m not saying that things are not improving in my country – the opposite. What is the situation is that we have probably a hundred cases of public awareness. Somehow they are not solved, but we have a hundred thousand cases which are worked out from the justice system, they work and that’s okay. Also I must say that the reports from the European Commission on the CVM mechanism (Cooperation and Verification Mechanism) are objective, are right, and we are working on them in a very responsible approach, by not shifting but addressing and taking action plans and working them.

Question 3: My question is very brief and very quick. In January 2013 the [indiscernible] project showed that enthusiasm and satisfaction with democracy in Bulgaria is less than in Russia. You have been a member of the previous cabinet and I’m wondering what kind of results and experiences you can share with us that you thought were appropriate in actually increasing that enthusiasm and belief in democracy in Bulgaria and elsewhere in the region.

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HE Rosen Plevneliev: You think there is democracy in Russia?

Question 3: No, I just cited the results of a global project, it’s a very respected global survey. It found that enthusiasm and satisfaction in Bulgaria is less than in Russia, so was a reference point.

HE Rosen Plevneliev: Well, it’s telling me that Bulgarians are very honest. That’s a good beginning. That’s a sound base for improvement. What I truly count in is the active Bulgarian civil society that is pointing at the problems, that has an opinion, that is demanding and pushing. You have seen this all over 2013, 2014. I was preaching and hoping and telling to political leaders that we do have a historic chance in my country because people gave us this chance, by protesting. I was looking very positively on the protests, by people giving a chance to politicians to change. People giving legitimacy to politicians to change. It’s not so difficult. For example, if Bulgarian politicians refrain from appointing dependent judges in the justice system – we’re gone, we’re there, we have a completely independent system. It’s as simple as that. It depends on the decision of politicians not to do what shouldn’t be done.

It is the same with the government. You want to fight corruption – just in two years you could have a fully functioning e-government. Bulgaria has the 7th fastest internet speed in the world. Because Bulgarian protesters today are very well equipped with smartphones, they communicate, they know what’s going on. Even if we have problems with the media, the internet is free and national electronic media have a bright focus. You can analyse and you can take a conscious decision.

I am very passionate not to make a perfect change. It’s good that you have problems because then you have a constant pressure to work. You see the sense of what you do because you can improve. There is so much to be improved in my country and that’s what people believe also about our country and they want to participate. We have created civil society watchdogs. We have invited civil society into changing some of the laws. It’s not difficult to integrate active citizens with politics, but why today the acceptance is so low is still because, especially in our institutions, in many of them, we are not

www.chathamhouse.org 9 Transcript: Southeastern Europe: The Road Forward: Q&A integrating in a broad way but more continuing to take an everyday approach to policymaking. I hope this will be changed.

Question 4: You described your bilateral relations with all your neighbours, that you have a zero problems policy except with Macedonia. We know this is due to a not- signed agreement for good neighbourly relations. How would you describe the bilateral relations with Macedonia, is my first question. The second one is, have you proposed this type of an agreement with Serbia as well? If so, what were the reasons? Because you mentioned that you have also zero problems policy with Serbia.

HE Rosen Plevneliev: First of all, about Serbia, what we propose is a common approach, as simple as that. When Bulgaria started its integration process through the European Union, we have signed such agreements with Turkey, with Greece, with Romania. So that’s a very standard and typical approach we would like to see in order to guarantee that we will be using a standard and very well working European approach in our relationships. With this approach, we absolutely offered it to all of our neighbours, as those two countries are the last ones who do not have such contracts with us. As I said, we do have with Romania, Turkey and Greece.

Especially about Macedonia, people-to-people relations are perfect. They are wonderful. There is no problem. Government-to-government could be better. We are disappointed that we had a good neighbourly relationship declaration that was signed in 1999 – presidents, prime ministers, governments they have all agreed. That’s a document that was signed, that was approved, that was debated. It’s there and it makes huge sense. But today’s government in Macedonia decided to cut this document and told us that, well, we signed a declaration of good neighbourly relationship but we’re not interested anymore.

What we are insisting is a simple thing, because governments should realize – and the case in Ukraine, with the agreement of 1993, is telling us how dangerous it is if politicians are putting signatures and then rejecting responsibilities and the signatures they have put themselves.

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Question 5: When you were talking about guarantees, different guarantees, what came to my mind is Menachem Begin’s adage: who guarantees the guarantee? Because we have plenty of guarantees that haven’t worked. My question: given the fact that the whole Soviet Union imploded, the Cold War was finished without firing a single shot, through soft power, through what the European Union stands for – articulating a greater presence of danger, with which I don’t have a problem, wouldn’t that reinforce different fears, issues of encirclement, and therefore have somebody else reacting in a negative way than we want them to react?

HE Rosen Plevneliev: I have addressed in my speech the soft power of the European [indiscernible] that works in the region, that brings out – and actually, you talk to every one of the leaders in the region, he will tell you that the engine of European integration and democratization of our societies and the market economy that is based on competitiveness works. So that’s a very basic foundation for what we do. I also pointed to the fact that the world football championship in 2012, jointly organized by Ukraine and Poland, has created the miracle of looking at the soft power of changed, modern, dynamic and human Poland, as a comparison to what it was. I would see in the future that based on this model, in Ukraine we will have – call it an IMF-backed new Marshall Plan, or a restructuring Marshall Plan. We will see the same reforms, that makes sense – strengthen civil society, market competitiveness, look at small and medium- sized enterprises. What Poland did, what Visegrad did. We will see then a huge shift into a future-oriented, successful and prosperous Ukraine, that will be on the border of Russia.

Question 6: The Baltic states, Poland and Ukraine have started negotiating with a US company to import gas through shipping LNG (liquefied natural gas) to Eastern Europe, to reinforce their energy interdependence. I understand the Turks would be ready to consider having some ships going through the Bosporus, which they used to oppose. Is that also something Bulgaria might look at?

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HE Rosen Plevneliev: That’s a solution. That’s very important. We are communicating, we are working. I went to Qatar the previous week offering, for the first time in the history of the European Union, not just East-West gas pipelines but South- North gas pipelines. That might also be a game-changer because from Greece we could get gas from Qatar, from Turkey we might get gas from Azerbaijan, Iran or Qatar – or of course, wonderfully, from Poland we might get from the United States. We are following.

Question 7: What are the provisions in Bulgaria’s medium-term economic strategy for foreign direct investment, having in mind that we are expecting that Bulgaria will benefit from less direct investment from Russia? Bulgaria has been trying to distance itself from Russian influence but now economic analysts say that this is happening. So what is going to fill in the gap? Secondly, the UK is the fourth largest investor in Bulgaria. Is there any progress with Westinghouse ambitions in Kozloduy?

HE Rosen Plevneliev: About investment in Bulgaria, if you look at the numbers, yes, 2007-2008 were record-breaking years and then the crisis came. Out of 6 billion a year, where Bulgaria with 8 billion in 2007 was a world-record breaker for foreign investment, fell down. But if you look at the structure of our investments in the previous years of 2004 to 2008, 85 per cent of foreign investments were real estate and related services only 15 per cent. Today, out of 1.5 billion investments, almost everything is factories, machines, technologies. That is very encouraging.

On the other side, talking about British investments in Bulgaria, yes, Britain is number four. But we see a number of potential areas where we will see a better economic cooperation between Bulgaria and Great Britain. There is a very strong business delegation and we see clusters and companies coming together – 10 per cent a year growth between Bulgaria and Britain, that’s perfect.

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Matt Frei: Excellent. We’ve run out of time. Because I’m the chairman I get to ask the last question, very briefly. In December you were widely reported as saying that this country’s immigration policy risked making Britain seem isolationist and nationalist. Now that you’ve had tea with the Queen, do you still believe that?

HE Rosen Plevneliev: I am a big fan of the United Kingdom. I will stick to the rules of the protocols of Her Majesty the Queen. But let me tell you that – I will speak about Bavaria, the German province where I have been recently. Bavarians raised the question about Bulgarians going there and about the social security systems and the danger. I said, you know, I’m an engineer – just tell me the facts. I want to see the facts. In Germany we have 125,000 Bulgarians. We do have 7.2 per cent of the Bulgarians in Germany who are unemployed. We do have 7.7 per cent of the Germans in Germany who are unemployed. I am asking the Germans to analyse the facts that show that the Bulgarians in Germany are better integrated than the Germans in Germany. That’s the point.

Matt Frei: On that happy Bavarian note – I’m sure Bulgarian and Bavarian relations will flourish in the future – thank you very much to all of you for coming. President Plevneliev, it was a pleasure to talk to you. Thank you very much.

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