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PAAC-Presentation Se One Term Wonder? The Chances for a Second Trudeau Government September 2018 © 2018 Copyright Innovative Research Group Inc. 2 Methodology • These are the findings of an Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) poll conducted from September 27th to October 1st, 2018. • This online survey of 2,410 adult Canadians was conducted using INNOVATIVE’s Canada 20/20 national research panel with additional respondents from Leger Marketing, a leading provider of online sample. The results are weighted to n=1,200 based on Census data from Statistics Canada. • Respondents from the Canada 20/20 Panel and the Leger Panel are recruited from a wide variety of sources to reflect the age, gender, region and language characteristics of the country as a whole. Each survey is administered to a series of randomly selected samples from the panel and weighted to ensure that the overall sample's composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample. • INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that only invited panel members are able to complete the survey, and panel members can only complete a particular survey once. • This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was not a random probability based sample, a margin of error can not be calculated. Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to most online panels. Note: Graphs and tables may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in data. Sums are added before rounding numbers. 3 Segmentation: Where did respondents come from? Regional groupings include: ▪ British Columbia (Yukon) ▪ Alberta (Northwest Territories) ▪ Prairie Region (Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Nunavut) National ▪ Ontario Unweighted n=2,410 ▪ Quebec ▪ Atlantic (PEI, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland & Labrador) Weighted n=1,200 British Columbia Unweighted n=491 Weighted n=163 Prairies Quebec Unweighted n=104 Unweighted n=388 Weighted n=80 Weighted n=280 Alberta Unweighted n=411 Weighted n=136 Atlantic Unweighted n=402 Weighted n=82 Ontario Unweighted n=614 Weighted n=459 Flash Back: Key Factors in the last election Leader Impressions: Trudeau’s gains in reputation was the 5 first sign of Liberal Momentum Now we are going to provide you with several names of public figures. Please indicate whether you have heard Q of that person and, if so, whether you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate that. [Includes unfamiliar % from previous Q] Net Favourability (W6) Oct 15 2 18% 29% 20% 14% 15% 4% +17 (W5) Oct-15 16% 27% 24% 13% 12% 6% +18 (W4) Sep-15 15% 29% 21% 13% 16% 6% +14 (W3) Sep-15 17% 31% 18% 14% 15% 5% +19 (W2) Aug-15 14% 30% 22% 13% 16% 5% +14 (W1) July-15 12% 25% 21% 15% 20% 6% +1 Strongly favourable Somewhat favourable Neutral/Neither favourable nor unfavourable Somewhat unfavourable Strongly unfavourable DK/Do not recognize LPC Partisans: Trudeau up 14 points as best PM since pre- 6 writ Which of the following party leaders would make the best Prime Minister of Canada? [LPC Partisans Only - Bloc Quebecois asked only in Quebec] 74% 68% 64% 65% 60% 29% 22% 22% 18% 12% 8% 9% 7% 6% 6%7% 9% 3% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 1% W1 (Jul '15) W2 (Aug '15) W3 (Sep '15) W4 (Sep '15) W6 (Oct '15) Justin Trudeau of the Liberals Stephen Harper of the Conservatives Thomas Mulcair of the NDP Elizabeth May of the Green Party Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Quebecois Note: ‘None’, ‘Don’t know’, 'Refused' not shown. Just like Wynne, left wingers rallied to a progressive Liberal agenda and abandoned a more prudent New Democrat Vote Change among Core Left Voters Post Election (Oct'15) 4% 50% 34% 6% 5% W6 (Oct '15) 1% 46% 38% 6% 7% 2% W4 (Sep '15) 6% 35% 41% 3% 9% 5% W1 (Jul '15) 3% 28% 59% 2%6%2% Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Quebecois Green/Other Undecided Would not vote/Nobody Party Attributes: Liberals became the party of the middle 8 class and job creation Now we are going to provide you with a list of issues. For each of these issues, please tell me which party you Q think would do a much better job or a somewhat better job of dealing with that issue or if you think none of the parties would do a good job on that issue. How about...? Protecting (W6) 15-Oct 11% 11% (W6) 15-Oct 21% 15% (W6) 15-Oct 14% 8% the middle (W5) 15-Oct 10% 11% (W5) 15-Oct 20% 14% (W5) 15-Oct 15% 7% class (W4) 15-Sep 10% 12% (W4) 15-Sep 17% 14% (W4) 15-Sep 14% 9% (W3) 15-Sep 10% 10% (W3) 15-Sep 19% 15% (W3) 15-Sep 16% 9% (W2) 15-Aug 11% 11% (W2) 15-Aug 16% 11% (W2) 15-Aug 18% 9% (W1) 15-Jul 9% 11% (W1) 15-Jul 12% 11% (W1) 15-Jul 21% 11% Creating (W6) 15-Oct 12% 13% (W6) 15-Oct 18% 14% (W6) 15-Oct 11% 7% jobs (W5) 15-Oct 11% 13% (W5) 15-Oct 17% 14% (W5) 15-Oct 12% 8% (W4) 15-Sep 12% 14% (W4) 15-Sep 16% 12% (W4) 15-Sep 11% 8% (W3) 15-Sep 12% 12% (W3) 15-Sep 15% 13% (W3) 15-Sep 13% 10% (W2) 15-Aug 12% 13% (W2) 15-Aug 11% 12% (W2) 15-Aug 15% 10% (W1) 15-Jul 11% 13% (W1) 15-Jul 10% 12% (W1) 15-Jul 14% 10% Conservative much better Liberal much better NDP much better Conservative somewhat better Liberal somewhat better NDP somewhat better Emotion by party: Liberals won the battle of hopes and 9 fears over the Conservatives So far in this federal election all three of the main parties, the Conservatives, the Liberals and the NDP, have Q been ahead in the polls at some point and all three may have an opportunity to form a government. If the Conservatives/Liberals/NDP form the next government … How well does the term ‘hopeful’/’afraid’ describe how you feel about the possibility of a [re-elected] Conservative/Liberal/NDP government? Conservative 17% 17% 15% 42% 9% Hopeful Liberal 19% 31% 19% 21% 10% NDP 17% 29% 19% 24% 11% Conservative 34% 19% 14% 22% 10% Liberal 20% 20% 22% 27% 12% Afraid NDP 20% 20% 22% 25% 12% Very well Somewhat well Not very well Not well at all Don't know The Horse Race 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% over Conservatives over Conservatives (27%); NDP at 13% trails Combined Federal Vote: 0% 5% Note: Q Jan-08 People’s Party of Canada (2%) added in September 2018, included in ‘Another party’(4%) ‘Another in 2018, includedSeptemberin (2%) addedofCanada Party People’s Mar-08 + LEAN] [VOTE slightly? toward lean you do party that which case, In vote for?you wouldparty held which today, election were federal a If May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Undecided / don't know don't / Undecided Québécois Bloc The Party Conservative The Nov-08 Jan-09 May-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Would not vote / none vote not Would Party Green The Party Liberal The Oct-11 (33%) Liberals to 7 grow lead points Dec-11 Mar-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 May-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 July-15 Sep-15 Another party Another Party Democratic New The Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 10% 13% 27% 33% 5% 4% 6% 3% 11 Combined Federal Vote by Region: Liberals lead in every 12 region except Alberta and the Prairies If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean Q toward slightly? [VOTE + LEAN] BC 27% 32% 15% 11% 2% 11% 2% Alberta 46% 25% 10% 4% 9% 2% Prairies 34% 33% 9% 5% 5% 12% 2% Ontario 28% 40% 14% 5%3% 8% 3% Quebec 15% 26% 13% 21% 6% 4% 12% 2% Atlantic 21% 38% 7% 10% 7% 15% 2% The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party Undecided / don't know Would not vote / none Decided Federal Vote: Liberals (38%) lead CPC (31%) by 7 13 points, only 15% would vote NDP If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean Q toward slightly? [DECIDED VOTE] October 2015 Federal Election: May 2011 Federal Election: Liberals: 39% Conservatives: 40% Conservatives: 32% 60% NDP: 31% NDP: 20% Liberal: 19% BQ: 5% BQ: 6% Green: 3% 50% Green: 4% 40% 38% 30% 31% 20% 15% 10% 7% 4%5% 0% Jul-08 Jul-11 Jul-18 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-18 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-14 Apr-16 Apr-17 Sep-08 Feb-10 Sep-10 Sep-11 Feb-12 Feb-16 Feb-17 Sep-18 Dec-09 Dec-15 Dec-16 Aug-09 Aug-15 Aug-16 Nov-08 Nov-11 Mar-08 Mar-15 Mar-18 May-08 May-09 May-11 May-15 May-18 Sept-13 June-14 June-17 The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party Note: People’s Party of Canada (3%) added in September 2018, included in ‘Another party’ (4%) Decided Federal Vote by Region: Liberals are down in 14 Quebec since the 2015 election, holding steady in Ontario If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean Q toward slightly? [Decided Vote] British September 2018 31% 37% 17% 12% 3% Columbia 2015 Election 30% 35% 26% 8% 1% Alberta September 2018 52% 28% 12% 4% 5% 2015 Election 59% 25% 12% 3%2% Prairies September 2018 40% 38% 10% 6% 6% 2015 Election 43% 35% 19% 3%1% September 2018 31% 45% 16% 5%3% Ontario 2015 Election 35% 45% 17% 3%1% September 2018 18% 31% 15% 25% 7% 5% Quebec 2015 Election 17% 36% 25% 19% 2% Atlantic September 2018 25% 46% 9% 12% 8% Canada 2015 Election 19% 59% 18% 4%1% The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party Note: The “2015 Election” results are obtained from Elections Canada.
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