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Greg Lyle, President Innovative Research Group

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Greg Lyle, President Innovative Research Group Politics and Energy in OctoberCanada 3, 2019 Today 2 Online Sample Methodology • This report combines the results of three online surveys conducted in September 2019. • In total, the dataset contains a representative sample of n=6,420 Canadians, 18 years or older. Online samples for two of the surveys were provided by Lucid, while the third sample was provided by Dynata, both leading providers of online samples. The dates and sample sizes for each survey were: • Election Benchmark Survey: Conducted from September 10th to September 15th, 2019 with an unweighted sample size of 1,622 (weighted to 1,600) • Ad-Testing Survey Wave 2: Conducted from September 17th to September 24th , 2019 with an unweighted sample size of 2,496 (weighted to 2,300) • Canada This Month Survey: Conducted from September 20th to September 25th, 2019 with an unweighted sample size of 2,302 (weighted to 2,000) • The combined sample is weighted to n=5,900 by age, gender and provincial sub-regions using the latest Statistics Canada Census data. Results are weighted to ensure that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample. • Respondents were grouped together into their federal electoral districts based on their postal code. A weighted total of 441 respondents could not be grouped into a federal electoral district because they did not provide a postal code or their postal code matched multiple districts. • INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that only invited panel members are able to complete the survey, and panel members can only complete a particular survey once. Sub-regional quotas are set within regions to ensure there is a representative sample of respondents from across the entire region. • This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was not a random probability-based sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated. Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to most online panels. Note: Graphs may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in data. Sums are added before rounding numbers. 3 Methodology Unweighted Unweighted Weighted Weighted This is the second release on the results of an online survey conducted between September 20th and September 25th, 2019. (n) (%) (n) (%) This online survey of 2,303 adult Canadians was conducted using INNOVATIVE’s Males 18-34 187 8.1% 275 13.8% Canada 20/20 national research panel with additional respondents from Lucid, a leading provider of online sample. The results are weighted to n=2,000 based on Males 35-54 312 13.6% 334 16.7% Census data from Statistics Canada. Respondents from the Canada 20/20 Panel and the Lucid constituent panels are Males 55+ 702 30.5% 362 18.1% recruited from a wide variety of sources to reflect the age, gender, region, and language characteristics of the country as a whole. Each survey is administered to a Females 18-34 250 10.9% 272 13.6% series of randomly selected samples from the panel and weighted to ensure that the overall sample's composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population 360 15.6% 347 17.4% according to Census data to provide results that are intended to approximate a Females 35-54 probability sample. Females 55+ 491 21.3% 409 20.4% INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that only invited panel members are able to complete the survey, and panel members can only complete a particular survey once. Sub-regional quotas are set within regions to ensure there is a representative sample of respondents from across the entire BC 429 18.6% 272 13.6% region. A total of 242 panelists started but did not finish the survey and another 1 panelists Alberta 314 13.6% 227 11.4% were screened out for exceeding age/gender/region quotas. 150 6.5% 133 6.7% Confidence: This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was Prairies not a random probability based sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated. Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to Ontario 907 39.4% 764 38.2% most online panels. 370 16.1% 467 23.4% Weighting: Results for Canada are weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure Quebec that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population according to Census data; in order to provide results that are intended to approximate a Atlantic 132 5.7% 136 6.8% probability sample. Weighted and unweighted frequencies are reported in the table. Federal Vote Note: maintain their directional lead over the Conservatives leadtheir directional over maintain Vote: Decided Federal Q People’s Party of Canada has been added since September 2018, included in ‘Another party’. in 2018, of ‘Another has included Canada since been Party added September People’s Jan-08 [showing only decided voters; n=1,761] If a federal election wereheld today, which party would you vote for?In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 The Bloc Québécois The Conservative Party Nov-08 Jan-09 May-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 The Liberals are steady since early September, September, early since steady are Liberals The Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 The Green Party The Green The Liberal Party Jan-13 Sept-13 Apr-14 June-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 May-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Another party The Democratic New Party Apr-17 June-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 [D ECIDED VOTE] ECIDED Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 W2 Jun-19 Sep-19 W1 5% 6% 10% 14% 31% 35% 5 Decided Federal Vote by Region: The Liberals hold substantial leads in 6 Ontario and Quebec, while the CPC leads in Alberta and the Prairies If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED] Q [showing only decided voters; n=1,761] Total 31% 35% 14% 5% 10% 6% BC 28% 29% 22% 17% 4% Alberta 52% 24% 13% 5% 6% Prairies 41% 24% 15% 9% 11% Ontario 30% 42% 14% 9% 5% Quebec 21% 35% 10% 20% 10% 6% Atlantic 29% 39% 13% 14% 5% Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green PPC/Other 2nd Choice by 1st Choice: A third (31%) of Liberal voters say the NDP is 7 their second choice, while another quarter say the Green Party is theirs And which party would be your second choice? BY Combined Vote Q Combined Vote Bloc Conservative Liberal NDP Green Other [QC Only] Conservative n/a 11% 11% 17% 12% 38% Liberal 9% n/a 29% 12% 23% 13% NDP 13% 31% n/a 13% 30% 8% 2% 4% 3% n/a 3% 4% Choice Bloc nd 2 Green 13% 25% 32% 18% n/a 16% People’s Party 16% 3% 4% 4% 7% 0% Other 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 6% Undecided/ 24% 16% 16% 21% 19% 10% Don’t know Would not 22% 10% 5% 15% 5% 4% vote/Nobody Voter Pools: While the Liberals and Conservatives have similarly 8 sized bases, the Liberals have more soft and 2nd choice voters 51% 56% 65% 69% 71% 82% 12% 12% 6% 5% 12% 14% 12% 9% 12% 37% 4% 32% 7% 7% 8% 12% 19% 18% 20% 7% 21% 17% 10% 5% 2% 5% 4% 6% 2% Liberals Conservatives NDP Bloc Green People's Party (QC only) Decided Soft Second choice Undecided Non Decided: Voting for the party, and have heard all they need to make up their mind Soft: Voting for the party, but would like to hear more before making up their mind Second Choice: The party is second choice, and they would like to hear more before making up their mind Undecided: Undecided voters Non-party: Voting for another party and second choice is not for the party, or they have made up their mind Party ID Federal Party ID: The Liberals and Conservatives are tied on ID outside 10 of Quebec, but in Quebec the Liberals have a wide lead Thinking about politics in Canada, generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a... Q [asked of all respondents; n=2,000] Rest of Canada Quebec 29% 26% 28% 23% 24% 16% 14% 12% 11% 11% 7% n=1533 n=467 (23%); 23% unaligned are ID: Party Federal Q [asked of all respondents; n=2,000] Thinking about politics in Canada, generally speaking, thinkyoudo asa... yourself of Apr-11 Oct-13 Mar-15 May-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 The Liberals (28%) lead on ID over the Conservatives the Conservatives (28%) lead on ID over The Liberals Jun-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Conservative Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Liberal Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 NDP Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Other Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Unaligned Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 W1 Apr-19 W2 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 W1 Sep-19 W2 23% 23% 28% 11% 14% 11 Turnout Election Voting: Two-thirds (66%) of voters say they have voted in 13 every election in the last ten years Thinking about the last ten years in Canada, were there any federal, provincial, or municipal elections in which you were eligible to vote but did not? Q [asked of all respondents; n=2,000] 65% 16% 8% 8% 4% I voted in every election I voted in most elections I voted in only a few I haven’t voted in the last Can’t recall elections ten years Current Vote by Past Behaviour: Liberals hold a small directional 14 lead among the most likely voters Combined vote by: Thinking about the last ten years in Canada, were there any federal, provincial, or municipal elections in which you were eligible to Q vote but did not? [asked of all respondents; n=2,000] Total 27% 31% 12% 4% 9% 4%1% 9% 3% I voted in every election 31% 34% 11% 5% 8% 4%1% 6% 0% I voted in most elections 27% 29% 15% 4% 11% 5% 0% 7% 1% I voted in only a few elections 17% 24% 20% 6% 13% 7%
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