Technology Predictions: Art, Science, and Fashion

Paolo Faraboschi, Hewlett Packard Labs Eitan Frachtenberg, Reed College Phil Laplante, Penn State University Katherine Mansfield, IEEE Computer Society Dejan Milojicic, Hewlett Packard Labs

Making accurate predictions isn’t easy. However, many people have enjoyed making predictions throughout history, and even more individuals have taken part in learning about predictions.

redicting the future is never easy; it always many individuals and organizations regularly write tech- entails a degree of uncertainty, if not luck. Pre- nology predictions, such as Gartner,1 the Massachusetts dicting technology trends is even harder, as it Institute of Technology,2 Forbes,3 and many others.4–6 requires both technical and business acumen, The IEEE Computer Society (IEEE CS) started its tech- Pthat is, whether the technology will be developed, produc- nology predictions informally in early 2010 and for- tised, and ultimately adopted on the market. It is almost an mally via annual press releases in 2014, followed by their art to distill between a fashion and a true technology trend. respective scorecards in 2016.7 We realized that our audi- At the same time, the public likes to read predictions, and ence appreciates self-evaluation; hence, we introduced scorecards at the end of the period of prediction. Our predictions reached a substantial audience; for example, in Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MC.2019.2942286 Date of current version: 22 November 2019 2018, our predictions were picked up by 300 media outlets

34 COMPUTER PUBLISHED BY THE IEEE COMPUTER SOCIETY 0018-9162/19©2019IEEE (with a combined audience of 84.6 mil- in November, and predictions for Tech Trends press release was picked lion people), which is entirely different the following year are published in up by 294 media outlets with an audi- from classical publishing. We consid- December.16 See Table 1 for the 2019 ence of 84.6 million people, the high- ered predictions as a new type of publi- scorecard. This November, we will be est ever for an IEEE CS news release. cation, a lightweight, short publication working on our predictions for 2020, The press release was also highly pro- (approximately a paragraph per predic- to be published in December. We do moted via social media and achieved tion). These predictions also triggered this close to the publishing date to be top placement on Twitter, with more other media outreach, such as blogs,8 able to allow as much time for technol- than 10,000 views and hundreds of interviews,9 panel sessions,10 and this ogy adoption. retweets. An extensive reach also meant special issue of Computer magazine. Over time, we expanded the team lighter and shorter content. We did not Over the years, we became better at and separated it from its IAB origins. explore deep technical details, and the using press releases and social media The team has grown from four to five length of every prediction was roughly to announce our report to the extent at its inception to 11 members today. one paragraph. that it became visible at the IEEE Board The process consists of each member It has been reported that the pre- of Directors and found its way to the proposing one or more technology dictions were used by several uni- report of the IEEE executive director. predictions for the following year by versities to formulate their research One notable side product that grew writing a paragraph-long description, program around certain subjects. out of our predictions was the 2022 followed by online voting. Voting is The IEEE CS 2022 Report (published report11,12 that comprehensively pre- used primarily to separate clear out- in 2015)11,12 also had its impact on dicted 23 technologies seven years liers (rejects and top candidates) and the IEEE CS and was used as a tech- ahead. This report had a sister study,13 then, through discussion, the final nical underpinning for two strategic written by the Industrial Technology selection is decided on. The profile plans; two student competitions; and Research Institute, Taiwan, on technol- of the typical team member is deeply many distinguished lectures given ogy predictions specific to Asia. These technical, with an understanding in different regions. Our predictions technology predictions surpassed all of business and spanning multiple undoubtedly helped the visibility of our expectations in terms of impact, broad technology areas. This is gener- the IEEE CS within the IEEE and in and we plan to continue for as long as ally called T-shaped, deep in one area general. Since beginning our top 10 an audience has interest. and broad across multiple areas, and list of predictions, others have mak- some are even π-shaped people, those ing annual predictions. HISTORY deep in two areas and broad across We started predicting technology multiple others. The team environ- LESSONS LEARNED trends in 2010 as part of the IEEE CS ment fostered a productive and effi- Nothing can replace good judgment Industry Advisory Board (IAB) meet- cient discussion and relatively quick and human conversation. Although ings, where industry experiences were selection of the list. Voting was never we ranked, voted, and narrowed down informally collected to help align the considered the final outcome but the choices, only through discussion editorial calendar of Computer with only a facilitator for easier selection. by experts were we able to come up relevant industry trends. Since then, Nothing would replace discussion as with quality predictions. the process has become more formal, the final decision-making tool. This Consistency in annual predic- with IAB members ranking feedback December, we will reveal our technol- tions is critical for developing an and casting their votes to create an ogy predictions that we anticipate for audience that expects predictions. approximate list of the top 10 technol- the year 2020. As mentioned previously, we wrote ogies predicted for the coming years. our November scorecard for predic- The first such prediction was pub- IMPACT tions in October and published it in lished on the IEEE CS Press Room web- The primary goal of the predictions is November. Being early with predic- page in 2013 for 2014,14 and in 2016,15 to reach a wide audience, well beyond tions and publishing them in Decem- we created the first scorecard. These publications such as Computer or even ber (rather than January) also helped scorecards are published annually IEEE Spectrum. For example, the 2018 increase visibility.

DECEMBER 2019 35 TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS

TABLE 1. The 2019 technology trends scorecard.

2019: B (in November 2019) 2018: B 2017: A− 2016: B+

Deep-learning accelerators: A Deep learning: A− Industrial Internet of Things: B+ 5G: B Assisted transportation: A/B Digital currencies: C− Self-driving cars: B− Augmented reality and virtual reality: B+ The Internet of Bodies: B/C Blockchain: A AI, machine learning, and cognitive Nonvolatile memory: B− computing: A+ Social credit algorithms: B- Industrial Internet of Things: A+ 5G: B Cyberphysical systems: B+ Advanced (smart) materials Robotics: B+ Accelerators: A Data science: A and devices: B/C Active security protection: B- Assisted transportation: A− Disaggregated memory/fabric- Capability-based security: C attached nonvolatile memory: C+ Augmented reality and virtual Augmented reality and virtual Sensors everywhere and edge Advanced machine learning: A reality: B+ reality: B− computing: A− Chatbots: B Ethics, laws, and policies Blockchain (beyond Bitcoin): A Network function virtualization: B for privacy, security, and liability: C+ Automated voice spam (robocall) Accelerators and 3D: A Hyperconverged systems: B Containers: A prevention: C Technology for humanity Cybersecurity and AI: C — — (specifically machine learning): B/C

Continuous innovation and exper- the predicted technologies actually also begun to list a few technolo- imentation helped us to always be fared better (or worse) than we argued; gies that we feel could be adopted aware of current social media interests however, we just didn’t make a good in the near future, but more than and attract broader audiences. Every enough case to justify our ranking. one year out. year we introduced something new, ››Separating fashion from eco- be it a new approach, a new product, CHALLENGES TO nomically backed technologies or a fresh perspective. Although we PREDICTIONS (that is, separating fluff from could always use more analysis and The team observed various challenges substance) is never easy. Mar- publish our predictions sooner, only to our predictions, and we are provid- keting is tempting, but, thus far, lengthy reports, for example, the 2022 ing the following rationale behind we have resisted. This challenge Report, warrant deeper analysis. our extensive analysis: is also about balancing what While content quality is absolutely everyone else thinks will hap- required, an important component ››We want to maintain a high pen (and, therefore, is somewhat of content promotion is quality social standard of predictions; how- uninteresting to readers) with media management. The careful, ever, occasionally, we made bold, surprising predictions, planned release of predictions via the risky bets. which may have a lower prob- IEEE CS’s social media platforms max- ››We are cognizant of the difference ability of success. Note that imized our exposure and helped us between near- versus long-term this challenge dovetails with ascend to the top of both Google’s and horizons. Many times, one year is the first challenge on this list. Bing’s search listings. Argument per- too brief for a certain technology Going forward, we may include suasiveness is critical, and several of to be adopted. As of late, we have indications of “likelihood,”

36 COMPUTER WWW.COMPUTER.ORG/COMPUTER “confidence,” or “risk/reward balance,” so that people who are looking for thought-provoking, ABOUT THE AUTHORS unconventional ideas can find what they are looking for, and people looking for sound, policy PAOLO FARABOSCHI is a vice president and leads research in system architecture making predictions can find at Hewlett Packard Labs. His research interests focus on the intersection of hard- something else. ware and software and include high-performance computing, systems on a chip, ››Heterogeneity in opinions and highly parallel systems. Faraboschi received a Ph.D. from the University of Genoa, makes the overall predictions Italy. He is a Hewlett Packard enterprise fellow. Contact him at paolo.faraboschi@ better or at least more interest- hpe.com. ing (that is, akin to a diversi- fied portfolio of perspectives). EITAN FRACHTENBERG is a visiting associate professor of computer science Previously, there were predic- at Reed College, Portland, Oregon. His research interests include computer tions that a few of us would not systems, data science, and data compression. Frachtenberg received a endorse (either because of a Ph.D. from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel. Contact him at eitan@ lack of expertise or faith in the reed.edu. technology); however, they were received from another team PHIL LAPLANTE is a professor of software and systems at Penn State Univer- member. This helps us “cover sity. His research interests include the Internet of Things, mission-critical sys- more bases.” It is therefore vital tems, and project management. Laplante received a Ph.D. from Stevens Institute that we continue to strive to of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey. Contact him at [email protected]. diversify the team, both in terms of expertise and demographics. KATHERINE MANSFIELD is a manager of marketing communications for the ››“Beauty is in the eye of the IEEE Computer Society. Her high-tech marketing focus includes the fields of engi- beholder.” Some technologies, neering, computer science, and information technology. Mansfield received a BSBA for example, digital twins, were in finance from Fontbonne University in St. Louis, Missouri. Contact her at k.mans- continually brought up but did [email protected]. not make it into the rankings until recently because not every- DEJAN MILOJICIC is a distinguished technologist at Hewlett Packard Labs. one was as passionate about it. His research interests include operating systems, distributed systems, and systems management. Milojicic received a Ph.D. from the University of Kaiserslaut- TECHNOLOGY TRENDS ern, Germany. He received multiple best paper awards. He is a member of the SCORECARD editorial boards of IEEE Internet Computing and IEEE Transactions on Cloud In November 2016, the IEEE CS released Computing. He is general cochair of the IEEE Infrastructure and Association for its first scorecard, grading its 2016 predic- Computing Machinery (ACM) Middleware (industry track) conferences. He is a tions (which were published in Decem- Fellow of the IEEE, an ACM distinguished technologist, and a member of Eta ber 2015) with the score based on the Kappa Nu and USENIX. Contact him at [email protected]. advancements of each trend and analysis forward. The score was a B+. Every year thereafter, we have continued the process of grading the predictions and publish- ››Mary Baker, Hewlett Packard ››Zoran Dimitrijevic, principal ing the scorecards, which have become (2019) engineer, Airbnb Lab (2019) nearly as popular as the predictions. ››Tom Coughlin, Coughlin Associ- ››Fred Douglis, chief scientist, Per- The following authors contributed ates (2020) specta Labs (2019) to technology predictions and score- ››Erik DeBenedictis, colead, Quan- ››Paolo Faraboschi, Hewlett Pack- cards in recent years: tum Initiative (2019) ard enterprise fellow (2017–2020)

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››Eitan Frachtenberg, data scien- 2. “Ten breakthrough technolo- Computer Society leader about our tist (2015–2020) gies,” MIT Technology Review, 2019. top 10 tech trends for 2019,” Jan. 14, ››Danny Lange, Unity (2020) [Online]. Available: https://www 2019. [Online]. Available: https:// ››Phil Laplante, Penn State .technologyreview.com/lists/ publications.computer.org/com- University (2014–2020) technologies/2019/ puter-magazine/2019/01/14/ ››Andrea Matwyshyn, codirec- 3. D. Blomstrom, “10 tech and industry computer-society-2019 tor, Center for Law, Innovation 2019 predictions that you will read -top-10-tech-trends-cgtn and Creativity, Northeastern everywhere,” Forbes, 2018. [Online]. -interview/ University (2020) Available: https://www.forbes.com/ 10. “2020 Tech Predictions: A preview of ››Avi Mendelson, professor, sites/duenablomstrom1/2018/12/ the end of the year Computer Society Technion (2019–2020) 17/10-tech-and-industry-2019 report,” July 12, 2019. [Online]. Avail- ››Cecilia Metra, professor, -predictions-that-you-will-read able: https://conferences.computer University of Bologna (2019) -everywhere/#428f4c6a1996 .org/services/2019/plenary/2020 ››Dejan Milojicic, Hewlett Pack- 4. J. Burt, P. Heltzel, N. Henderson, and K. -Tech-Predictions.html ard enterprise distinguished D. Schwartz, “10 future technology pre- 11. H. Alkhatib et al., “2022 report,” technologist (2014) and 2014 dictions to watch in 2019,” ITPro Today, IEEE Computer Society Document, IEEE CS president (2011–2020) 2018. [Online]. Available: https://www IEEE Computer Society Board, ››Roberto Saracco, chair of the .itprotoday.com/data-security-and Washington, D.C., Feb. 2014. Symbiotic Autonomous Sys- -encryption/10-future-technology 12. H. Alkhatib et al., “What will 2022 tems Initiative of the IEEE- -predictions-watch-2019 look like? The IEEE CS 2022 report,” Future Directions Committee 5. C. DesMarais, “31 tech predictions Computer, vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 68–76, 2015. (2019–2020). for 2019,” Inc.com. Accessed on: June 13. “2030 Advanced technology from an 2019. [Online]. Available: https:// Asian perspective,” ITRI. Accessed www.inc.com/christina -desmarais/ on: June 2019. [Online]. Available: redicting is never easy, but it 31-tech-predictions-for-2019.html https://www.computer is a very popular and natural 6. T. Briseno, “10 futurist predictions in .org/publications/tech-news/ activity. At the IEEE CS, a team the world of technology,” trends/2030-asia-advanced Pof volunteers and staff have made pre- HowStuffWorks, 2012. [Online]. -technology-itri dictions since 2010. These predictions Available: https://electronics 14. IEEE Computer Society, “Top tech- were largely published using social .howstuffworks.com/future-tech/ nology trends for 2014.” Accessed on: media. But lately, we have begun using 10-futurist-predictions-in-the-world June 30, 2016. [Online]. Available: traditional media, such as this issue -of-technology.htm https://www.computer of Computer, panels at conferences, and 7. IEEE Computer Society, “IEEE Com- .org/publications/tech-news/ technical reports. These overall pre- puter Society Press Room.” Accessed trends/2014-top-10-tech-trends dictions served their purpose of pro- on: June 2019. [Online]. Avail- 15. IEEE Computer Society, “IEEE voking thought about the future and able: https://www.computer.org/ Computer Society grades its 2016 achieved substantial visibility, as evi- press-room technology predictions: Gets a B+: denced by how often they were picked 8. N. T. Bajju, “Interview with Dejan S. Capability-based security lags behind up by the press. Milojicic on top technology trends 2016 predictions.” Accessed on: June and predictions for 2019,” Big Data 30, 2016. [Online]. Available: https:// REFERENCES Blog, 2019. [Online]. Available: www.computer.org/press-room/2016 1. D. Cearley and B. Burke, “Top 10 https://bigdata-madesimple.com/ -news/2016-tech-grades strategic technology trends for interview-with-dejan-s-milojicic-on-top 16. IEEE Computer Society, “Computer 2019,” Gartner, 2019. [Online]. Avail- -technology-trends-and-predictions Society Press Room.” Accessed able: https://www.gartner.com/en/ -for-2019/ on: June 30, 2016. [Online]. Avail- doc/3891569-top-10-strategic 9. M. Martinez, “China Global Tele- able: https://www.computer.org/ -technology-trends-for-2019 vision Network interviews IEEE press-room

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