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Methodologies for Economic Impact and Adaptation Assessment of Cyclone Damage Risks Due to Climate Change *

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Methodologies for Economic Impact and Adaptation Assessment of Cyclone Damage Risks Due to Climate Change * 121 Methodologies for economic impact and adaptation * assessment of cyclone damage risks due to climate change MG Stewart † Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, School of Engineering, The University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia Y Li Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, Michigan, USA SUMMARY: Increases in wind damage are expected if the intensity and/or frequency of tropical cyclones increase due to enhanced greenhouse conditions (climate change). The paper proposes a methodology to estimate cyclone damage risks due to enhanced greenhouse conditions using residential construction in the North Queensland cities of Cairns, Townsville and Mackay as a case study, and then assesses the economic viability of several climate adaptation strategies. The analysis includes probabilistic modelling of cyclone intensity and frequency, time-dependent increase in wind speed from enhanced greenhouse conditions (global warming), and vulnerability functions of building damage. Increases in mean annual maximum wind speed from 0% to 25% over 50 years are considered to represent the uncertainty in changing wind hazard patterns as a result of climate change. The effect of regional changes to building inventory over time and space, rate of retrofi tting, cost of retrofi t, reduction in vulnerability, and discount rate will be considered. The risk-cost-benefi t analysis considering temporal changes in wind hazard and building vulnerability can be used to help optimise the timing and extent of climate adaptation strategies. 1 INTRODUCTION scenario is a 5-10% increase in wind speeds by 2050, with an increase of 25% being the worst-case scenario Increases in wind damage are expected if the intensity with a very low probability that this scenario will and/or frequency of tropical cyclones increase due to eventuate. Hence, this paper will consider a range of enhanced greenhouse conditions (climate change). increases in wind speeds from 5% to 25% in North However, the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Queensland over the next 50 years, but most results Climate Change (Christensen et al, 2007) provided will be presented for a 10% increase in wind speed as very little guidance as to the expected increase in this appears to be the most likely scenario arising from intensity and/or frequency of tropical cyclones in enhanced greenhouse conditions. Australia and elsewhere. However, Walsh et al (2001) Tropical cyclones and hurricanes can cause signifi cant predicted up to a 25% increase in wind gusts for the sources of economic loss, for example, Cyclone same return period wind speeds for Townsville, Cairns Tracy in 1974 caused over $500 million in damages and other coastal locations in North Queensland by (Holmes, 2001), and Cyclone Larry in 2006 caused 2050. Yet, a more recent report by the same author stated that maximum tropical cyclone winds are over $1 billion in damages. Approximately 60-80% of likely to increase by only 5-10% by some time after damage caused by Cyclone Larry arose from damage 2050 (Walsh et al, 2002). A review of the most current to residential construction in houses built before research (AGO, 2007) suggests that a plausible enhanced building standards were implemented in north Queensland from the early to mid 1980s * Paper S09-023 submitted 29/05/09; accepted for (Ginger et al, 2007). The potential for larger losses publication after review and revision 27/07/09. exists given the increasing development of coastal Published in AJSE Online 2009, pp. 85-100. communities in North Queensland. † Corresponding author Prof Mark Stewart can be Following the devastating damage caused by contacted at [email protected]. Cyclone Althea (Townsville) in 1971 and Cyclone © Institution of Engineers Australia, 2010 Australian Journal of Structural Engineering, Vol 10 No 2 SS09-02309-023 SStewart.inddtewart.indd 112121 111/01/101/01/10 10:3110:31 AMAM 122 “Methodologies for economic impact and adaptation assessment ...” – Stewart & Li Tracy (Darwin) in 1974 changes were made to the vulnerability and discount rate will be considered. Queensland Home Building Code (1981) requiring The case study considers the cyclone damage risks new housing to be strengthened by a set of deemed- for the North Queensland cities of Cairns, Townsville to-comply provisions (eg. Walker, 1980). These and Mackay, where three site exposures are enhanced building standards for houses came into considered: Foreshore, Town and Inland. Results will effect on 1 July 1982, although many new houses be given in terms of annual and cumulative economic built in the years prior to 1982 complied to the risks, and damage loss. Given the uncertainty of the Australian Wind Loading Code AS1170.2 (Standards impacts of global warming, a range of increases in Australia, 2002). This means that houses built wind speed are considered: (i) no climate change since 1980-1985 in North Queensland represent (stationary system) and (ii) mean annual maximum “properly engineered forms of cyclone resistant wind speed increases by 5% to 25% over the next 50 construction” (Reardon & Henderson, 1998) – years (non-stationary system). A particular climate this enhanced type of residential construction is adaptation strategy will be economically viable referred to herein as “post-1980 construction”. Other when the cumulative costs of retrofi t and reduced related standards, such as wind loads for housing damages fall below the cumulative damage costs of AS4055 (Standards Australia, 2006) and residential existing vulnerability (ie. ‘‘do nothing’’ scenario) – in timber framed construction for cyclonic regions other words, the net benefi t of the climate adaptation AS1684.3 (Standards Australia, 2005) are used strategy exceeds zero. The risk-based cost-benefi t in more recent housing design and construction. analysis considering temporal changes in wind Hence, the vulnerability of pre-1980 construction hazard and building vulnerability can be used to is signifi cantly higher than post-1980 construction. help optimise the timing and extent of retrofi tting If damage from cyclones is expected to increase with existing houses to adapt to the potential impact of time due to climate change, then climate adaptation enhanced greenhouse conditions. strategies may be needed. This may be achieved by There is clearly great uncertainty and debate about retrofi tting/strengthening pre-1980 construction to predicted changes in wind hazards due to climate the enhanced post-1980 standard. Another climate change and so it is not the intention of this paper to adaptation strategy may be to further reduce the support any specifi c assumption of climate change. vulnerability of new construction, or to implement Instead, the purpose of this paper is to investigate planning controls to limit development in highly the potential impact of assumed climate change vulnerable coastal locations. Most cyclone (hurricane) scenarios on damage loss estimation and examine risk research has focused on changes to building the cost-effectiveness of various climate adaptation vulnerability and inventory, and its time-dependent strategies. This paper will also provide a tool for risk- effect on damage risk (eg. Harper, 1999; Granger et informed decision making under uncertainty, which al, 2000; Huang et al, 2001; Jain et al, 2005). However, will be of utility to building code and government relatively little attention has been paid to quantifying planning agencies. the costs and benefi ts of climate adaptation strategies (retrofi tting, strengthening), and assessing at what point in time a climate adaptation strategy becomes 2 PROBABILISTIC WIND MODEL economically viable. Cost-benefit analysis for strengthening a residence to withstand cyclones Probabilistic wind field modelling of the North has been used to weigh different retrofi t options on Queensland cities of Cairns, Townsville and Mackay hazard mitigation (Li & Ellingwood, 2009). Stewart et has been conducted by Harper (1999), where the al (2003) and Stewart (2003) developed a cost-benefi t predicted wind speeds compared very well to analysis decision-making framework to assess the measured tropical cyclone data, and that Cairns, economic viability of strengthened construction Townsville and Mackay have similar extreme wind and other damage mitigation strategies for US and climates. Since most site specifi c simulation-based Australian hurricanes and tropical cyclones. In this hazard models are proprietary and not available work, retrofi tting was assumed to occur when cyclone for this study, Stewart (2003) fi tted an EV-Type I damage occurred and so the additional cost of the distribution to the Harper (1999) predictions. The retrofi t was minimised (since the structure had to be EV-Type I (Gumbel) cumulative distribution function repaired anyway), and since damage would occur to for annual maximum gust speeds is thus: the most vulnerable construction then over a long time –α(v – u) period it would be expected that the most vulnerable Fv(V) = exp[–e ] (1) construction would be retrofi tted, thus reducing the where v is the gust wind speed (m/s) for a standard region-wide vulnerability to tropical cyclones. category 2 terrain (AS1170.2, Standards Australia, A cyclone damage risk-cost-benefit analysis is 2002) and a 10 m anemometer height. The parameters developed to assess the economic viability of several u and α are site-specifi c. The statistical parameters climate adaptation (hazard mitigation) strategies.
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