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JUNE 2019 QUARTERLY REPORT AUSNUTRIA’S CASH GOAT AUTOTRADER: PREMIUM MAKING A SMART CHOICE SURPRISING QUALITY AT AN IN CHINA BUSINESS, PREMIUM PRICE Today, Smartgroup dominates ATTRACTIVE PRICE Relative to the world’s most Auto Trader will continue salary packaging alongside Large fleet managers like SG expensive growth stocks, it to grow nicely, and not via McMillan Shakespeare after Fleet earn very healthy returns. looks like a steal. unjustified price gouging. years of consolidation. Why Once its offering is integrated, invest now? switching can be costly and risky. A Crisis in Active Funds Management CONTENTS VALUE INVESTING: WASN’T MEANT TO BE EASY 3 Concentrated investing is dead 3 Unfortunate side effects or essential prerequisites? 4 Hard to compete in a rational market 4 Staff changes, performance fees and a big thank you 4 Forager 2019 annual roadshow 4 INTERNATIONAL SHARES FUND 5 Ausnutria milks the goat in China 6 Autotrader: premium business, premium price 7 Baidu makes an ugly exit 8 Market outlook improving for Cementir 8 Portfolio news 9 AUSTRALIAN SHARES FUND 10 Making a smart choice 11 Surprising quality at an attractive price 12 Portfolio news 14 WARNING The information given by Forager Funds Management is general information only and is not intended to be advice. You should therefore consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs before acting on it, seeking advice from a financial adviser or stockbroker as necessary. This information may contain some forward-looking statements which reflect the expectations of Forager Funds Management about the future prospects of companies held within the portfolios of the funds. While Forager Funds Management considers its expectations to be based on reasonable grounds, there is no guarantee that those expectations will be met. DISCLAIMER Forager Funds Management Pty Ltd operates under AFSL No: 459312. The Trust Company (RE Services) Limited (ABN 45 003 278 831, AFSL No: 235 150) is the Responsible Entity and the issuer of the Forager Australian Shares Fund (ARSN 139 641 491). Fundhost Limited (ABN 69 092 517 087, AFSL No: 233 045) is the Responsible Entity and the issuer of the Forager International Shares Fund (ARSN No: 161 843 778). Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. You should obtain and consider a copy of the product disclosure statement relating to the Forager International Shares Fund and the Forager Australian Shares Fund before acquiring the financial product. You may obtain a product disclosure statement from The Trust Company (RE Services) Limited, Fundhost Limited or download a copy at www.foragerfunds.com. To the extent permitted by law, The Trust Company (RE Services) Limited, Fundhost Limited and Forager Funds Management Pty Limited, its employees, consultants, advisers, officers and authorised representatives are not liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance placed on the contents of this document. PERFORMANCE Unless specified, the performance-related information has been sourced by Forager Funds Management. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The Trust Company (RE Services), Fundhost and Forager Funds Management do not guarantee investment performance or distributions, and the value of your investment may rise or fall. Total returns and estimated valuations have been calculated using the mid-point of unit prices, before taxation, after ongoing fees, and assuming reinvestment of distributions. We encourage you to think of investing as a long-term pursuit. Forager Funds Management #3 – Quarterly Report June 2019 VALUE INVESTING: WASN’T MEANT TO BE EASY Speculative tech stocks are back in vogue. Long-term investing is on the nose. Is now the time to give up on Australia’s active fund managers? The result of the demise of value investing and investor withdrawals has been financial erosion, stressful to us all. And there is no real indication that a quick end is in sight. And what do I mean by, “there is no quick end in sight?” What is “end” the end of? “End” is the end of the bear market in value stocks. It is the recognition that equities with cash-on-cash returns of 15 to 25 percent, regardless of their short-term market performance, are great investments. “End” in this case means a beginning by investors overall to put aside momentum and potential short-term gain in highly speculative stocks to take the more assured, yet still historically high returns available in out-of-favour equities. There is a lot of talk now about the New Economy (meaning Internet, technology and telecom). Certainly the Internet is changing the world and the advances from biotechnology will be equally amazing. Technology and telecommunications bring us opportunities none of us have dreamed of. Avoid the Old Economy and invest in the New and forget about price,” proclaim the pundits. And in truth, that has been the way to invest over the last eighteen months. I have great faith though that, “this, too, will pass.” We have seen manic periods like this before and I remain confident that despite the current disfavour in which it is held, value investing remains the best course. The difficulty is predicting when this change will occur and in this regard I have no advantage. What I do know is that there is no point in subjecting our investors to risk in a market which I frankly do not understand. Consequently, after thorough consideration, I have decided to return all capital to our investors, effectively bringing down the curtain. Don’t panic. That’s not me talking. CONCENTRATED INVESTING IS DEAD It’s famous hedge-fund manager Julian Robertson, announcing the This has little to do with the value versus growth argument closure of his highly successful Tiger Fund in March 2000. that has been raging in recent years. While “value” has been An early investor in the Tiger Fund made 85 times their money underperforming “growth” since the financial crisis, I’ve written a in the two decades prior to its closure. That wasn’t enough. A lot about the stupidity of distinguishing between the two. few years of poor performance in the tech bubble led to a wave of Future growth in cashflows is an important component of any redemptions that was too powerful to resist. business valuation. Value investors should and do buy businesses It’s no coincidence that it has been a full generation but, almost that grow. Our specialty has historically been investing in twenty years later, value investing is going through another crisis of underperforming businesses that we think can resurrect themselves. confidence. While troubled UK fund manager Neil Woodford might Plenty of successful investors have made their returns finding beg to differ, it’s a crisis that is particularly severe in our home businesses where the growth prospects are underappreciated. I’d market of Australia. still call them value investors—they are trying to value businesses In recent months, fund managers including Adam Smith Asset and buy them for less than they are worth. They are simply using Management, Sigma Funds Management, JCP and Kis Capital higher valuation metrics because they think the profitability is have all pulled down the shutters or suffered significant outflows. going to grow significantly. The ASX has the most expensive growth stocks in the world (see In today’s market, we are all losing out to the speculators. page 6) and, once again, everyone is questioning whether value Here is a list of ASX-listed companies with less than $50m of investing works in the modern economy. Even some of its more revenue and market capitalisations of more than $500m. Excluding loyal advocates are concluding that, no, it does not. mining, oil and gas and investments companies, there are 10 on the ASX that meet that criteria. The combined market capitalisation is more than $10bn (that’s billion, with a B). Table 1: Bubble Stocks Enterprise Value Total Revenue Net Income Last 12 Months Price Company EV/Sales ($m) ($m) 12 Months ($m) Movement Avita Medical Limited 755 3 (25) 548% 264 iSignthis Ltd 658 6 (8) 306% 108 Polynovo Limited 951 9 (5) 167% 110 Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals 1,718 27 16 263% 63 Pro Medicus Limited 2,716 45 19 249% 60 Megaport Limited 809 26 (28) 50% 31 Mesoblast Limited 710 23 (127) -13% 31 Audinate Group Limited 489 25 1 107% 20 Bubs Australia Limited 459 33 (70) 14% 14 Elixinol Global 466 37 (1) 167% 13 Sum/Average 9,732 235 (227) 186% 71 Source: S&P Capital IQ, Prices as at 25 June 2019 Forager Funds Management #4 – Quarterly Report June 2019 “ IT’S NO COINCIDENCE THAT IT HAS BEEN A FULL GENERATION BUT, ALMOST TWENTY YEARS LATER, VALUE INVESTING IS GOING THROUGH ANOTHER CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE.” As a group, these companies lost $227m in the most recent 12 STAFF CHANGES, PERFORMANCE FEES AND A BIG months, so we won’t bother with earnings multiples. The average THANK YOU ratio of total enterprise value to revenue is 71 times. After six valuable years, Alvise Peggion decided it is time for a Well done if you owned them a year ago. The 12 month share price change and has moved on from Forager. It was his first job out of movement for this basket of stocks averages out at 186%. university and it is time for him to spread his wings. He will be This speculative pocket of the market—there are many more than missed around the office and we wish him the best in his future these 10—is a bubble.
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