DOCSLIB.ORG

The Future of North American Trade Scenarios and Economic Implications 02 the Future of North American Trade | a Scenario Approach

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
The Future of North American Trade Scenarios and Economic Implications 02 the Future of North American Trade | a Scenario Approach The Future of North American Trade Scenarios and Economic Implications 02 The Future of North American Trade | A Scenario Approach Scenario Thinking 04 Critical Uncertainties 06 Four Possible Scenarios for the Future 08 Economic Impact 12 Conclusions and Outlook 14 Methodology 16 Contacts 18 03 04 The Future of North American Trade | A Scenario Approach Scenario Thinking A Glimpse into the Future of North American Trade The North American Free Trade Agreement The challenge is to capture the complex ways Following the Breakdown of NAFTA in our (NAFTA) between Canada, Mexico, and the in which North America’s economic and third scenario, Mexico intensified its alliance United States is facing great uncertainty. political set-up may evolve. This will help to with Latin America to emerge from recession Political change, protectionist agendas, and a identify each country’s risk exposure and and foster the region’s socio-economic growing row over the agreement’s imbalance develop suitable strategic options on the development. Canada strengthened its ties to of benefits endanger its continued existence. basis of robust needs for action. the EU to compensate for its small domestic At the same time, disruptive technologies, market, while the US has isolated itself both new digital business models, and changing Scenario design provides the basis for politically and economically. social values also question the validity of the decision-making in the context of great existing trade agreement. uncertainty by analyzing and structuring In the North American Union scenario, drivers into critical uncertainties that could political, economic, and social integration has While the US administration contemplates the impact the future. Scenarios are narratives of united the NAFTA members into a strong agreement’s modification, Canada and alternative futures that provide a sound basis economic union that collaborates on key Mexico will probably strive to enhance NAFTA for developing future-proof strategies for political issues and the elimination of trade and tie renegotiations to complementary anybody with ties to North American trade. barriers. A lack of technological advancement topics such as immigration and regional forces each country to specialize in its security. Thus, the questions that need to be We have developed four scenarios to comparative advantages to support its answered are: what will the trade illustrate what trade could look like in North neighbors. relationships between North American America in 2030. countries look like in 2030, and what will the All of these scenarios demonstrate how impact on their respective economies be? In the Beyond Success scenario, digital differently a new set of North American trade entrepreneurship in North America is rules could play out. Let’s explore each Clearly, NAFTA renegotiations are likely to booming. A modernized NAFTA provides the scenario in more detail to better understand have far-reaching consequences for the ideal framework conditions for digital the implications. economic and political landscape in North businesses to take off. Universal internet America, as well as for the current trade access, e-governments, and a fully open- partners. Threats to cross-border value chains source approach make the movement of Enjoy the ride, arise from potential legal divergences and goods, services, and capital much easier, Your trade barriers. Closed borders could lead to along with creating new businesses. Labor economic recession, political instability, and and migration reforms have enabled NAFTA social unrest. However, intensified economic to realign toward highly skilled employment. integration or new trade ties could also open up new opportunities. In Digital Crusaders, the isolation of the US following the abolishment of NAFTA allowed In order to navigate the changing Mexico to catch up to US competitiveness by environments and respond to opportunities absorbing foreign talent and know-how. While and threats at an early stage, an Canada established deep trade integration understanding of possible North American with Europe, Mexico fostered its ties with trade models is required. China and South America, thanks to their interest in its new capabilities. 05 Critical Uncertainties Drivers That Will Shape North American Trade At the outset of our exercise, we developed a On the other hand, the future of North holistic list of drivers that have the potential to American trade is highly dependent on the affect North American trade relations in impact of digital diffusion. Advances in future. This was done with the help of expert technology and digitalization have led to the interviews and AI-based natural language rise of new business models that disrupt processing algorithms. The drivers identified incumbent industries. For instance, were then clustered into social, technological, automation and artificial intelligence continue economic, environmental, and political factors to replace an increasing number of jobs, while and rated in view of their degree of e-commerce makes conventional retail uncertainty and their impact on North business models obsolete. American trade relationships. The resulting list of prioritized drivers formed the basis of our Nevertheless, the success of digitalization is scenario analysis, since it enabled the not guaranteed. Regulations must establish determination of the most critical the framework conditions to enable digital uncertainties in the context of NAFTA data flows and cross-border trade, while new renegotiations. skills are required to accommodate the continued development and implementation According to our experts’ ranking, the first of technological innovations. Cyber security critical uncertainty that will determine the must also ensure the safety of data, systems, future of North American trade is the degree and applications. of future cross-border collaboration between Canada, Mexico, and the United In addition, the evenness of technological States. Collaboration can either increase in diffusion across multiple nations determines terms of deeper economic and political the magnitude of digitalization’s impact on integration or decrease as countries take competitiveness. An asymmetrical distribution more nationalist and protectionist positions, would provide significant competitive edge such as a return to WTO rules. The diverging over less developed nations or industries, views on the desired trade model also reflect while a more uniform distribution would the heterogeneous agendas that each balance and dissolve competitive benefits. country pursues. As a result, the second critical uncertainty of The drivers underlying this critical uncertainty our scenario framework is represented by the include the degree of cross-border impact of digitalization on competitiveness interrelations, the ideological divide, and which can either be decisive or insignificant. corruption, and also the development of global trade blocs and power structures. In The combination of both critical uncertainties addition, employee mobility and regional results in four plausible but highly distinct security represent two of the underlying visions of the future which are illustrated in drivers that have received particular attention figure 1. in the context of NAFTA renegotiations. 06 The Future of North American Trade | A Scenario Approach Fig. 1 – Scenario matrix to describe the future of North American trade Stronger cross-border collaboration North American Union Beyond Success Digitali- Impact of digitalization Impact of digitalization Every- zation is thing is ilimited digital Degree of cross-border collaboration Breakdown Weaker cross-border Digital Crusaders collaboration 07 Four Possible Scenarios for the Future North American Trade in 2030 Beyond Success In this world, digital entrepreneurship in people to meet regional labor demands. North America is booming. The However, the imbalance of employment has modernization of NAFTA, e-governments, and led to disparity and social unrest, while the universal internet access have made the digitalized economies also experienced a rise movement of goods, services, capital, and in cyber-attacks from hostile nations and people much easier, along with creating new terrorist groups. businesses. A fully open-source approach Stronger cross-border means that what used to be proprietary collaboration and knowledge becomes freely available to the public within the NAFTA region and benefits everything is digital mutual improvement and country-based specialization. Mexico has become a strong low-cost manufacturer of robots and car parts, while Canada and the US focus on developing technology and new IP. As automation replaced more and more jobs, North America had to realign toward highly skilled employment. Labor and migration reforms have enabled the movement of 08 The Future of North American Trade | A Scenario Approach Digital Crusaders In this scenario, Mexico has caught up with capabilities could bring some long-awaited the US in terms of competitiveness. After the opportunities such as new trade markets or abolishment of NAFTA and a decade of Foreign Direct Investments. isolation in the US, economic growth and technological advancement came to a halt. Immigration restrictions deterred highly qualified specialists from entering the country. Weaker cross-broder Seizing the opportunity, Mexico absorbed collaboration and foreign talent to increase the competitiveness of its national tech hubs. Moreover, the lack of everything is digital
Load more

Recommended publications
  • American.Com That Freedom Shall Not Perish $2.95
    ★ ★ ★ ★ SPECIAL REPORT ★ ★ ★ ★ September 2, 2013 www.TheNewAmerican.com THAT FREEDOM SHALL NOT PERISH $2.95 How The Free Trade AGENDA Is Knocking Down AMERICA Mix or Match Spread The Word for Special Quantity Discounts Diploma Disaster? Common Core: College has long been seen as a ticket to A Scheme to Rewrite Education success, money, and leisure; but the job Common Core — an initiative to impose new national curriculum standards and market is glutted with college graduates, government surveillance on students college costs are punishing, and colleges — will harm students, not benefit them. increasingly focus on things other than (August 19, 2013, 48pp) TNA130819 academics. (August 5, 2013, 48pp) TNA130805 How The Free Trade Agenda ObamaCare Express: Is Knocking Down America Our Empty Future in Afghanistan Looking for a Refund This special report of The New American The United States plans to stay in As the requirements of ObamaCare magazine explains how the deceptive “free Afghanistan for another 10 years, but the come rumbling into force, its costs are trade” agenda is threatening our national murder of U.S. soldiers by Afghan locals exploding, its mandates are failing, and and the corruption of the Afghan regime its consequences are crippling. (July 22, independence, our personal freedoms, and our highlight the futility of our mission there. 2013, 48pp) TNA130722 jobs. (September 2, 2013, 48pp) TNA130902 (July 1, 2013, 48pp) TNA130701 ✁ QUANTITY TITLE/DESCRIPTION TOTAL PRICE How The Free Trade... Mail completed form to: ShopJBS • P.O. BOX 8040 Common Core... Mix or Match APPLETON, WI 54912 ❏ 1 copy $2.95 Order Online: www.ShopJBS.org Diploma Disaster? ❏ 10 copies $12.50 Credit-card orders call toll-free now! 1-800-342-6491 Order Online ❏ 25 copies $22.50 ObamaCare Express..
    [Show full text]
  • The Public Eye, Spring 2008
    The New Secular Fundamentalist Conspiracy!, p. 3 TheA PUBLICATION OF POLITICAL RESEARCH PublicEye ASSOCIATES SPRING 2008 • Volume XXIII, No.1 $5.25 The North American Union Right-wing Populist Conspiracism Rebounds By Chip Berlet he same right-wing populist fears of Ta collectivist one-world government and new world order that fueled Cold War anticommunism, mobilized opposition to the Civil Rights Movement, and spawned the armed citizens militia movement in the 1990s, have resurfaced as an elaborate conspiracy theory about the alleged impending creation of a North American Union that would merge the United States, Canada, and Mexico.1 No such merger is seriously being con- templated by any of the three govern- ments. Yet a conspiracy theory about the North American Union (NAU) simmered in right-wing “Patriot Movement” alter- native media for several years before bub- bling up to reach larger audiences in the Ron Wurzer/Getty Images Wurzer/Getty Ron Dr. James Dobson, founder of the Christian Right group Focus on the Family, with the slogan of the moment. North American Union continues on page 11 IN THIS ISSUE Pushed to the Altar Commentary . 2 The Right-Wing Roots of Marriage Promotion The New Secular Fundamentalist Conspiracy! . 3 By Jean V. Hardisty especially welfare recipients, to marry. The fter the 2000 presidential campaign, I rationale was that marriage would cure their Reports in Review . 28 Afelt a shock of recognition when I read poverty. Wade Horn, appointed by Bush to that the George W. Bush Administration be in charge of welfare programs at the Now online planned to use its “faith-based” funding to Department of Health and Human Services www.publiceye.org .
    [Show full text]
  • Conspiracy Theories.Pdf
    Res earc her Published by CQ Press, a Division of SAGE CQ www.cqresearcher.com Conspiracy Theories Do they threaten democracy? resident Barack Obama is a foreign-born radical plotting to establish a dictatorship. His predecessor, George W. Bush, allowed the Sept. 11 attacks to P occur in order to justify sending U.S. troops to Iraq. The federal government has plans to imprison political dissenters in detention camps in the United States. Welcome to the world of conspiracy theories. Since colonial times, conspiracies both far- fetched and plausible have been used to explain trends and events ranging from slavery to why U.S. forces were surprised at Pearl Harbor. In today’s world, the communications revolution allows A demonstrator questions President Barack Obama’s U.S. citizenship — a popular conspiracists’ issue — at conspiracy theories to be spread more widely and quickly than the recent “9-12 March on Washington” sponsored by the Tea Party Patriots and other conservatives ever before. But facts that undermine conspiracy theories move opposed to tax hikes. less rapidly through the Web, some experts worry. As a result, I there may be growing acceptance of the notion that hidden forces N THIS REPORT S control events, leading to eroding confidence in democracy, with THE ISSUES ......................887 I repercussions that could lead Americans to large-scale withdrawal BACKGROUND ..................893 D from civic life, or even to violence. CHRONOLOGY ..................895 E CURRENT SITUATION ..........900 CQ Researcher • Oct. 23, 2009 • www.cqresearcher.com AT ISSUE ........................901 Volume 19, Number 37 • Pages 885-908 OUTLOOK ........................902 RECIPIENT OF SOCIETY OF PROFESSIONAL JOURNALISTS AWARD FOR EXCELLENCE AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION SILVER GAVEL AWARD BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................906 THE NEXT STEP ................907 CONSPIRACY THEORIES CQ Re search er Oct.
    [Show full text]
  • Beyond Reparations: an American Indian Theory of Justice
    OHIO STATE LAW JOURNAL VOLUME 66, NUMBER 1, 2005 Beyond Reparations: An American Indian Theory of Justice WILLIAM BRADFORD* It is perhaps impossible to overstate the magnitude of the human injustice perpetrated againstAmerican Indianpeople: indeed,the severity and duration of the harms endured by the original inhabitants of the US. may well rival those suffered by any other group past or present, domestic or international. While financialreparations for certainpast transgressionsmay be appropriateto some groups and situations, the historical and ongoing injustices committed against Indians living within the US. cannot be adequately understood in material terms. Although in recent decades various models of justice have been proposed in respect of a series of gross human injustices, incomplete and even erroneous understandingsof the nature of Indian claims and an overly narrow conception of the potential parameters of remedial justice render these approachesineffectual. This Article presents a alternative theory of justice, termed "Justice as Indigenism" (JAI). As applied JAI commits its practitioners to a sequential process consisting of seven distinct stages: acknowledgment, apology, peacemaking, commemoration, compensation, land restoration, legal reformation, and reconciliation. JAI advances the frontiers of thinking about justice on behalf of Indians in that its normative mission is not the award of materialcompensation or the attribution of blame but ratherthe ultimate healing of the American and Indian nations and the joint authorship
    [Show full text]
  • The Islamophobia Industry
    Property of Pluto Press: Do Not Reproduce The Islamophobia Industry “This concise, accessible and illuminating book meets one of the most urgent needs of our time. Lean has provided a compelling counter-narrative that reveals the vested interests and highly organized networks of those who preach the virulent Islamophobia that is not only endangering world peace but is also corroding the tolerance and egalitarian ethos that should characterize Western society. This book should be required reading.” — Karen Armstrong “Islamophobia is not only about ignorance and fear. Some people purposefully nurture it and use it as a political strategy. Nathan Lean’s The Islamophobia Industry shows what is happening behind the scenes. It is an essential book for anyone who wants to understand the rationale and objectives behind those who foster this new racism against Muslims.” — Tariq Ramadan, Professor of Contemporary Islamic Studies at Oxford University and author of The Quest for Meaning “The climate of fear and cultural mistrust is one of the grim aspects of present-day society—but it doesn’t happen by accident. As this readable and well-researched book demonstrates, hatred sells; it can provide both money and power to those who profit from it. This book exposes the dirty secrets of those who try to manipulate public opinion against Muslims. It should be read by policymakers, concerned citizens, and everyone who values truth and intercultural understanding.” — Mark Juergensmeyer, Professor of Global Studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and author of Terror in the Mind of God: The Global Rise of Religious Violence. “Nathan Lean has written a book of immense importance for our times.
    [Show full text]
  • The Contradictions of Regionalism in North America
    The contradictions of regionalism in North America ANN CAP LING AND KIM RICHARD NOS SAL* Abstract. Students of regionalism almost reflexively include North America in their lists of regions in contemporary global politics. Inevitably students of regionalism point to the integrative agreements between the countries of North America: the two free trade agreements that transformed the continental economy beginning in the late 1980s- the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement that came into force on 1 January 1989, and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the United States, Mexico, and Canada, that came into force on 1 January 1994- and th~ Secutity and Prosperity Partnership of North America (SPP), launched in March 2005. These agreements, it is implied, are just like the integrative agreements that forge the bonds of regionalism elsewhere in the world. We argue that this is a profound misreading, not only of the two free trade agreements of the late 1980s and early 1990s and the SPP mechanism of 2005, but also of the political and economic implications of those agreements. While these integrative agreements have created considerable regionalisation in North America, there has been little of the regionalism evident in other parts of the world. We examine the contradictions of North America integration in order to explain why North Americans have been so open to regionalisation but so resistant to regionalism. Introduction Announcing his candidacy for the presidency in November 1979, Ronald Reagan articulated a vision for what he termed a 'North American Accord' between Canada, the United States and Mexico, promising that he would 'work toward the goal of using the assets of this continent ..
    [Show full text]
  • The Public Eye Fall 2020 1.Pdf
    FALL 2020 The Public Eye Book Review: Spectres of Fascism • Could Anti-Government Militias Become Pro-State Paramilitaries? No Sanctuary: Anti-Abortion “Abolitionists” Go to City Hall • Conservative, Christian, Corporate: COVID-19 Opportunism and Betsy DeVos’s Education Agenda FALL 2020 Total Life Reform: The Real Consequences of the Far Right’s Self-Help Grift editor’s letter We’re closing this issue of The Public Eye on the eve of Election Day. Whatever this week THE PUBLIC EYE will bring, Political Research Associates will continue to bring sharp, relevant analysis and QUARTERLY insight to the trends shaping our country and world. PUBLISHER In our book review (pg. 3) this issue, Matthew N. Lyons reads Spectres of Fascism, a Tarso Luís Ramos collection of essays considering the rise of right-wing authoritarian and populist move- EDITOR ments across the world, from the U.S. and Hungary to India and the Philippines. “One Kathryn Joyce of the challenges in trying to understand fascism is that it touches on so many different COVER ART aspects of human experience,” writes Lyons, “from the brutality of mass imprisonment Shea Justice and killing to the pageantry of a political rally; from the calculations of geopolitics to the PRINTING intimacies of family life.” Park Press Printers In a piece encompassing original data research, “Could Anti-Government Militias Become Pro-State Paramilitaries?” (pg. 5), Jaclyn Fox and Carolyn Gallaher look at the The Public Eye is published by concerning possibility of overlap and collaboration between various sectors on the far- Political Research Associates right and the Trump administration.
    [Show full text]
  • "The Paranoid Style": an Introduction to Conspiracy Theories
    1 "The Paranoid Style": An Introduction to Conspiracy Theories (AP Photo) Robert Graysmith, author of Zodiac and Zodiac Unmasked, views cryptographs used by the Zodiac killer. After Hofstadter: Conspiracy Theories in America By Paul McCaffrey Most authorities agree that the modern study of conspiracy theories began in 1964, when the historian Richard Hofstadter published his seminal essay “The Paranoid Style in American Politics” in the October issue of Harper’s Magazine. Though Hof- stadter’s thesis has endured its share of criticism over the years, with some contend- ing that the ideas he enunciated have since been overapplied, it remains one of the essential texts in understanding conspiracy theories and their various components. Written in the long shadow of the John F. Kennedy assassination, “The Paranoid Style” is very much a product of its time and place, yet the issues and themes it il- luminates continue to resonate in the present day. Moreover, through his survey of conspiracy theories throughout American history, Hofstadter draws powerful paral- lels between the past and the present, suggesting that the so-called “paranoid style” is a common and enduring historical current, one that comes in “waves of different intensity, [but] appears to be all but ineradicable.” While Hofstadter’s modern examination focuses on right-wing political move- ments in the United States—Senator Joseph McCarthy’s Red Scare and the John Birch Society, for example—he explores antecedents going back to the 1700s that do not fall so neatly on one side or the other of the Left-Right divide, such as an- ti-Catholic and anti-Masonic movements.
    [Show full text]
  • Adventist Review This Week's Special Empha- Jocelyn Fay Points out in Sis—"Adventist Adoption: "Adoption's Broader View" Giving and Receiving" (P
    Adventist Review General Paper of the Seventh-day Adventist Church May 24, 1984 Adventist adoption: giving and receiving Page 3 Surprises in the British Isles Page 10 The 1909 General Conference session Page 12 Adoption's broader view Page 18 Cover: The special pain of giving up a child for adoption, the joy of receiving such a child, and the work of the Adventist Adoption and Family Services are discussed in this week's feature articles, pages 3-8. THIS WEEK Adventist Review This week's special empha- Jocelyn Fay points out in sis—"Adventist Adoption: "Adoption's Broader View" Giving and Receiving" (p. (p. 18), all of us should be 3)—has been a long time in the adopting someone into our cir- making. Some 18 months ago a cle of love. Published continuously since 1849 recipient of a child through Bible credits: Texts in this EDITOR Adventist Adoption and Family issue credited to N.I.V. are William G. Johnsson Service suggested that we tell from The Holy Bible: New ASSOCIATE EDITOR the whole church about the International Version. Copy- George W. Reid agency's services. right © 1978 by the Interna- MANAGING EDITOR When contacted, agency tional Bible Society. Used by Jocelyn R. Fay director Fern Ringering was permission of Zondervan Bible happy to share the information. Publishers. ASSISTANT EDITORS James N. Coffin, Eugene F. Durand However, it was some time Fern Ringering Art and photo credits: Aileen Andres Sox before an interview could be Cover, pp. 5, 7, Richard Stead- ADMINISTRATIVE SECRETARY scheduled. After the interview, topic of adoption should be of ham; p.
    [Show full text]
  • Rage Grows in America: Anti-Government Conspiracies
    Rage Grows in America: Anti- Government Conspiracies November 2009 Front Cover Photo Credit: Flickr RAGE GROWS IN AMERICA: ANTI-GOVERNMENT CONSPIRACIES Introduction: A Year of Growing Animosity...................................................... 1 Part One: Anger in the Mainstream ......................................................................... 4 The Tea Parties ...................................................................................................................... 4 April 15 and July 4 Tea Parties ................................................................................................. 4 The Town Hall Meeting Disruptions .................................................................................... 6 Confronting Officeholders with Angry Rhetoric ...................................................................... 6 Nazi Comparisons .................................................................................................................... 7 A Building Anger ................................................................................................................... 9 September 12 Tea Party Events ................................................................................................ 9 The “How to Take Back America” Conference ...................................................................... 11 Press Conference in D.C. Against Health-Care Reform .......................................................... 12 The “Birther” Movement ...................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Bulletin of the German Historical Institute Bulletin of the German Historical Institute Washington DC
    Fall 2020 Bulletin of the German Historical Institute Bulletin of the German Historical Institute Washington DC Editor: Richard F. Wetzell Assistant Editor: Insa Kummer The Bulletin appears twice a year and is available free of charge. Current and back issues are available online at: www.ghi-dc.org/bulletin To sign up for a subscription or to report an address change please send an email to [email protected]. For editorial comments or inquiries, please contact the editor at [email protected] or at the address below. For further information about the GHI, please visit our web site www.ghi-dc.org. For general inquiries, please send an email to [email protected]. German Historical Institute 1607 New Hampshire Ave NW Washington DC 20009-2562 USA Phone: (202) 387-3355 Fax: (202) 483-3430 © German Historical Institute 2020 All rights reserved ISSN 1048-9134 Bulletin of the German Historical Institute 67 | Fall 2020 3 Preface FORUM: NEW RESEARCH IN TRANSATLANTIC HISTORY Edited by Axel Jansen and Claudia Roesch 7 Introduction: New Trends in Transatlantic History Axel Jansen and Claudia Roesch 17 “The Indians must yield”: Antebellum Free Land, the Homestead Act, and the Displacement of Native Peoples Julius Wilm 41 Trading in the Shadow of Neutrality: German-Speaking Europe’s Commerce with Union and Confederacy during the American Civil War Patrick Gaul 71 A Tumultuous Relationship: Nicholas Murray Butler and Germany in the Era of the Two World Wars Elisabeth Piller 101 “Taken on faith”: Expertise in Aerial Warfare and the Democratic “West” in the
    [Show full text]
  • Lawsuit and Retracts Comments About Refugees in Twin Falls, Idaho, L.A
    UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE WESTERN DISTRICT OF VIRGINIA Charlottesville Division _______________________________________ ) BRENNAN M. GILMORE, ) ) Plaintiff ) Case No. ______________ ) v. ) ) ALEXANDER (“ALEX”) E. JONES; ) INFOWARS, LLC, a Texas Limited Liability ) JURY TRIAL DEMANDED Company; FREE SPEECH SYSTEMS, LLC, a ) Texas Limited Liability Company; LEE ) STRANAHAN; LEE ANN MCADOO A/K/A ) LEE ANN FLEISSNER; ) SCOTT CREIGHTON; JAMES (“JIM”) ) HOFT; ALLEN B. WEST; and DERRICK ) WILBURN, ) ) Defendants. ) __________________________________________) COMPLAINT NOW COMES Plaintiff Brennan Gilmore, by and through undersigned counsel, and alleges upon knowledge and belief as follows: I. INTRODUCTION Brennan Gilmore works to provide jobs and training in rural areas, participates in local politics, and plays music around the Commonwealth of Virginia. As a Foreign Service Officer, Mr. Gilmore has devoted his career to promoting United States interests and to protecting American citizens through diplomatic efforts abroad. On August 12, 2017, Mr. Gilmore witnessed firsthand James Alex Fields Jr., a neo-Nazi, deliberately drive his Dodge Challenger into a crowd of peaceful protesters, killing Heather Heyer and injuring many others. Mr. Gilmore, who had been filming the protesters as they moved up the street, happened to catch Fields’ attack on video. Mr. 1 Gilmore posted the video on Twitter, where it attracted the attention of the press. After discussing what he had witnessed that day with a number of reporters, Mr. Gilmore soon became the target of right-wing conspiracy theories. Supporters of the alt-right and the “Unite the Right rally,” including the defendants, created a new identity for Mr. Gilmore—the organizer and orchestrator of Fields’ attack and a traitor to the United States.
    [Show full text]