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The Path to Efficient Trade Promotions February 2015

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The Path to Efficient Trade Promotions February 2015 THE PATH TO EFFICIENT TRADE PROMOTIONS FEBRUARY 2015 THE PATH TO EFFICIENT TRADE PROMOTIONS Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company 1 THE PATH TO EFFICIENT TRADE PROMOTIONS Much like the media realm, the consumer product landscape is becoming increasingly fragmented. Competition is rising, new channels are developing and choice is rampant. The combination of these and many other factors has retailers and manufacturers shuffling myriad promotion options to best publicize their products and boost sales. The results, however, are largely ineffective and often lead to losses rather than gains. To make matters worse, few folks have realized that it takes more than offering additional deep discount programs to increase promotion efficiency. From a business perspective, it’s critical that companies—manufacturers and retailers—get in front of this plight facing America’s consumer product goods (CPG) industry. That’s because they’re collectively spending millions of dollars to promote products and getting little—or negative—in return. Is this a crisis for U.S. retail? The answer likely depends on your definition of the word “crisis.” While the word is often used to describe disasters like famine or disease, it’s possible that manufacturers and retailers alike would describe their inability to at least break even on their massive trade expenditures as something of a crisis—especially since many seem ill-equipped to correct the problem. THE BIG PICTURE First, let’s talk about the big picture. Manufacturers and retailers across America spend inordinate amounts of money on trade promotions—the marketing activities that these two partners use to entice customers to buy their products. Price discounts are a common promotion tactic, but other efforts include feature and display, demonstrations, value-added bonus programs and no-obligation gifts. 2 THE PATH TO EFFICIENT TRADE PROMOTIONS Over the past 10 years, companies around the globe have doubled the amount of money they spend on their trade promotions. Today, they spend about $1 trillion annually, and they show no sign of pulling back, doing all they can to stay competitive in today’s challenging economy. While trade promotions can increase product visibility and brand awareness, they can also grow product categories, differentiate a product to take market share from a competitor and enlarge a specific product’s segment penetration. So what are the effects of these efforts? Today, more than one-fifth of the consumer products in the U.S. are sold under one type of promotion or another. Now for the bad news. More than two-thirds of the trade promotions that happen each year in the U.S. don’t break even. And what’s even more telling is that eliminating 22% of trade promotions would actually help companies increase sales revenue. Overall, a minority of the promotions taking place today actually make money. ASSESSING TRADE PROMOTION PERFORMANCE 67% DON’T BREAK EVEN ELIMINATING OF PROMOTIONS 33% WOULD INCREASE MAKE MONEY 22% SALES REVENUE Source: Nielsen Trade Promotion Landscape Analysis Database 2014 Q3 THE PATH TO EFFICIENT TRADE PROMOTIONS Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company 3 It’s true. America is pretty bad when it comes to trade promotions—or at least in terms of getting a positive return on that investment. And what’s more, the problem is getting worse. That’s because in many cases, companies are simply trying to regain their footing by increasing the frequency of their promotions, cutting prices lower or offering deep discounts more frequently. Unfortunately, these tactics, without clear insight into what will and won’t work, are going to create a bigger problem than exists right now. PROMOTION INEFFICIENCY IS GETTING WORSE TRADE EFFICIENCY % OF WEEKS ON PROMOTION % OF WEEKS ON PROMOTION $0.75 7.5% Y $0.70 7.0% $0.65 6.5% TRADE EFFICIENC $0.60 6.0% 2012 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2014 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q While the aggregate picture is very telling, a comparison with ad spending sheds a different light on the overall subject of trade promotions. When it comes to spending, CPG companies spend more than twice on trade promotion than they do on advertising. In terms of actual expenditures, brands and companies typically spend about 19% of their revenue on trade promotions, compared with about 7.5% on advertising. The interesting thing about this scenario—especially given the lackluster efficiency rate among trade promotions—is that it’s rare to find studies analyzing the return on trade spending. Comparatively, however, advertising effectiveness is a constant focal point for marketers and agencies around the globe. Perhaps this suggests that the industry perceives advertising as being easier to evaluate than trade promotions. 4 THE PATH TO EFFICIENT TRADE PROMOTIONS IDENTIFYING WHAT’S CAUSING THE INEFFICIENCIES In looking at the significantly subpar performance of trade promotions across the U.S., it’s no wonder that only one in four Nielsen clients says they’re happy with their promotional program outcomes. So why is that? Based on learnings from our work with numerous CPG manufacturers, Nielsen has identified four fundamental issues that are hindering trade efficiency. MEASUREMENT CHALLENGES Measurement is no easy feat, and grappling with understanding the effectiveness of trade promotions is something that plagues many across the CPG landscape. While manufacturers know what they spend, determining what they make on that spend is less clear-cut. For starters, the data they receive about what consumers buy comes from multiple sources. While manufacturers have access to retail sales data, they must cope with a different set of product identifiers from each retail data source, as well as differences in the unit of measure (such as case vs. consumer unit). Compound this problem with aligning the dates of the promotion between the manufacturer and the retailers across the tens of thousands of promotions a big CPG company runs each year, and you get some sense of the scale of the challenge. Further, manufacturers have to separate out sales that would have occurred anyway, if the product had not been promoted, from the incremental sales driven by the promotion, as well as adjusting for other drivers (including the weather). STRATEGIC PLANNING VS. TACTICAL REALITY It’s not just about data and metrics. It’s also about the difference between a CPG company’s plan and what happens on the ground. Most CPG companies strategically plan for price and promotion once or twice a year. Many use sophisticated predictive analytic tools to figure out how alternative promotional programs would do in the market and decide on the “best” course of action. THE PATH TO EFFICIENT TRADE PROMOTIONS Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company 5 Then, they relay these decisions as guidelines out to the account teams, who work directly with the retailers. At that point, a thousand negotiations begin—at which point the link between the view at the strategic level and the key account level has already been broken. As the year progresses, the sum of the thousand negotiations is likely to be very different from the strategic plan sent down from headquarters at the beginning of the year. Manufacturers need to integrate strategic planning tools at headquarters with tactical negotiation processes at the key account level—so that each retailer negotiation can be optimized while also remaining aligned with the overarching intent of the strategic plan. PROMOTIONAL PLAN MANAGEMENT AND EXECUTION Given the large number of promotional programs that manufacturers execute across categories, retailers and geographies, it’s critical that they use a consistent approach in order to ensure that the right products are at the store at the right time—even if a retailer changes its mind at the last minute and chooses to change the time, scope and support of a promotion. Nielsen research has found that more than half of out-of- stocks are caused by poor price and promotion management. In short, promotional optimization and management tools have to link reliably into the supply chain and financial management systems of the manufacturer. MANAGEMENT PROCESS Much like anything, optimizing and managing promotional activity relies on a dedicated, consistent process. CPG manufacturers will not be effective or efficient in their trade promotions if they use them in an ad hoc fashion or have a small group of analysts operate them in a silo. Truth be told, companies need powerful, integrated software applications that enable a wide range of managers to optimize and execute promotional activities on an end-to-end basis so that a consistent process is used pervasively throughout the organization, for all categories, retailers and geographies. 6 THE PATH TO EFFICIENT TRADE PROMOTIONS A DEEPER DIVE INTO THE PROBLEM Knowing that the rubber meets the road when consumers start buying and that trade promotion efficiency is lackluster, Nielsen recently conducted a widespread analysis of the retail landscape to better understand the aggregate situation. At the onset, the benchmark analysis* covered 340 categories, 15 departments, 1 million UPCs, 125 million event weeks and $1.6 trillion in retail sales. We then narrowed the analysis to eliminate some of the extreme skews. Specifically, we wanted to focus on the businesses that were promoting regularly and exclude promotional activity that was minimal and infrequent. The analysis also excluded activities around tobacco, alcohol, and a few kitchen staples: eggs, milk and bread. The final analysis, which aimed to identify what drives performance, ultimately zeroed in on 92 million event weeks over nearly three years and totaling $213 billion in sales across 75 retail banners. To hone in on performance, the analysis identified the weeks where prices were lower than the everyday cost for an item and then isolated the expected volume from the actual volume sold during that period.
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