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Transportation and Logistics Cluster in Northeast China

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Transportation and Logistics Cluster in Northeast China RUST AND OPPORTUNITY TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS IN NORTHEAST CHINA MAY 3RD, 2017 REPORT HIGHLIGHTS 153 1821 26 15 19 4 Regional Cluster Cluster Profile Profile Competitiveness ssessment SOOAH CHO DAVID PAYNE ART PITHAYACHARIYAKUL CHRIS WEN Executive Summary As China’s economy continues to grow, its logistics market was projected to reach $450 billion in recent years with a steady growth rate of 9%forecasted between 2017-2021.1 Northeast China consists of three provinces – Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. The region benefits from its strategic proximity to Russia, Mongolia, Korea, and Japan as well as its historical strength in logistics, agriculture, and manufacturing. It also has a large local market with a population size of 108 million people, which would be equivalent to the 12th most populous country in the world if it were separate. Unfortunately, the region has not seen the same growth experienced by many other parts of China since the 1980’s market reform. The combination of aging industrial infrastructure and sluggish growth has led the region to be known as “China’s Rust Belt.” China’s central government decided in 2007 to make the revitalization of the region a national priority and has included that goal in its 5-year-plans since 2010. A key plank of this plan is to modernize and encourage the region’s transportation and logistics cluster. This report analyzes the growth of the region, the present state of the transportation and logistics cluster, and outlines steps to improve the cluster’s performance. Specifically, the recommendations are: 1. Government Reforms Prioritize related and support industries (RSI) that have demonstrated growth potential (e.g., wholesale and retail, construction, and real estate) in instead of industries that the region has limited competitive advantages in (e.g., robotics, pharmaceutical, cloud computing). Better coordinate infrastructure investment across local, central, and foreign governments Increase liberalization to enable private and FDI participation; private-owned companies accounted for only 6% of sales among the top 50 logistics companies in China 2. Private Sector Diversify as market matures and consolidates Adjust to changing demand conditions based on the specific needs of prioritized related and support industries, such as improved customer service through tracking and specialized refrigerated logistics 1 A.T. Kearney, China 2015: Transportation and Logistics Strategies, https://www.atkearney.com/transportation/ideas-insights/article/- /asset_publisher/LCcgOeS4t85g/content/china-2015-transportation-and-logistics-strategies/10192 Technavio, Third-Party Logistics Market in China 2017-2021, https://www.technavio.com/report/china- logistics-third-party-logistics-market-china-2017-2021 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary p. 1 Regional Profile of Northeast China p. 3 History of Cluster p. 9 Profile of Cluster p. 18 Cluster Competitiveness Assessment p. 20 Future Considerations and Recommendations p. 28 Bibliography p. 31 2 Regional Profile of Northeast China Northeast China, also known as “Dongbei” and historically “Manchuria,” spans 793,300 square kilometers and formally consists of three provinces: Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang.2 The ethnic majority of the region is Han Chinese, and the people of the Northeast trace their ancestries back to migrants of the “Chuang Guangdong” movement, when the central government organized a campaign to “develop the Great Northern Wilderness” in the 19th and 20th centuries. Consequently, Northeast China is more culturally uniform than other regions of the country. Figure 1 – Map of Northeast China The agrarian economy of the Northeast is well established. The rural population of the Northeast is concentrated in the southern part of the region, where warmer temperatures support the growth of grains (e.g., maize, soybeans, flax, wheat, and barley) and the raising of sheep and pigs. Fishing activities are prolific along the fertile Amur river in Heilongjiang. The provinces are endowed with rich reserves of coal and 2 The Economist, Intelligence Unit, http://country.eiu.com.prd1.ezproxy-prod.hbs.edu/China (Accessed March 13, 2017). 3 iron ore, which helped trigger related industrial activities in steelmaking, shipbuilding, automobile, and aircraft manufacturing. The region’s 2015 population of 108.5 million (8% of the national population)3 primarily inhabit the major cities of Shenyang, Dalian, Harbin, Changchun, and Anshan. Both Jilin and Heilongjiang are contain oil reserves, although the latter’s Daqing oil field has been in decline since 2000. Access to the Pacific is available only in Liaoning, while Jilin and Heilongjiang are landlocked by Russia and North Korea and lack navigable rivers during the winter months. The geographic constraints require that agricultural and industrial products of the region travel to Liaoning for international export. Located on the southern tip of Liaodong peninsula in the Yellow Sea, Dalian is endowed with a deep-water harbor that remains ice-free year round, establishing it as a historically significant trading post since Japanese rule in the 1930s. Under the decentralized institutional framework, urban transport planning and development responsibilities reside with the local municipalities, with the central government’s role largely limited to reviewing the plans and providing technical standards.2 The rapid growth at the local level has made it challenging for the national government to review and approve plans, and the proliferation in the number of agencies involved in transport planning makes coordination extremely difficult. 3 The Economist, Intelligence Unit, http://country.eiu.com.prd1.ezproxy-prod.hbs.edu/China (accessed March 13, 2017). 2 Hai Xiao Pan, “Implementing Sustainable Urban Travel Policies in China, OECD International Transport Forum Discussion Paper 2011-2012 (2012). 4 Economic Performance of Northeast China Once an industrial hub and one of the first regions in China to urbanize, its heavy industry dominated by state-owned-enterprises (SOE) has languished amid the wave of liberalization and privatization in the rest of China. The stagnation led to the decline in regional population and the “Revitalize the Northeast Campaign” by the Chinese central government in recent years to transform the Northeast into one of China’s economic growth engines. Figure 2 - Key Economic and Social Metrics of Northeast China (2015)4 Annual GDP GDP per Disposable Household Savings Real GDP Province (Rmb bn capita Income per Rate (% of disposable Growth Nominal) (Rmb) head (Rmb) income) 2015 Liaoning 2,867 65,859 0.2% 31,126 31% Jilin 1,406 52,246 1.9% 24,901 28% Heilongjiang 1,508 39,544 0.3% 24,192 29% National 75,410 55,198 7.3% Recent stagnation of the region’s heavy-industry-led economy (heavy industry accounted for 80% of Heilongjiang’s industrial value-add in 2015) has driven real GDP growth rates in the Northeast well below national average. Assessment of the region’s economic growth is further complicated by a lack of trust in official data: Liaoning’s governor admitted to inflating 2011-14 economic growth statistics. Most notably, Liaoning ranked the lowest in economic growth among China’s 34 provinces and fell 4 All China Data Center, China Data Online, http://chinadataonline.org (accessed March 13, 2017). 5 into a recession with 2.2% contraction in GRP in the first three quarters of 2016.5 Cluster Composition and Relative Performance As a nation, China has prospered in recent decades as an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) across a broad range of clusters from communications equipment to textile, furniture, and apparel. The growth in basic manufacturing has been driven by the liberalization and opening of the Chinese economy, and China’s promotion of foreign direct investment in the nation’s manufacturing hubs. Figure 3 - China’s Export Share by Cluster (2005 – 2015)6 Note: Communications Equipment represented $205 billions of export value in 2015. 5 Zheping Huang, The Chinese government finally admitted that its economic data was made up, https://qz.com/887709/chinas-liaoning-province-admitted-that-it-inflated-gdp-figures-from-2011-to- 2014/ (accessed April 30, 2017). 6 Richard Bryden, International Cluster Competitiveness Profile, http://www.richbryden.com/iccp/ (accessed March 13, 2017). 6 Macroeconomic Competitiveness Despite strong growth at the turn of the century, GDP per capita growth rates in the three provinces have slowed dramatically in recent years. From 2010 to 2015, Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang recorded annual GDP per capita growth of 5.2%, 5.8%, and 3.8% respectively, well off the equivalent national rate of 6.2%. Unemployment rates have been in line with the national average. In 2013, Liaoning recorded unemployment in the urban areas of 3.4%, Heilongjiang 4.43%, and Jilin 3.7%. Inflation has been moderate and declining in all three provinces, with annual change in the CPI index in line with GDP growth and declining to the 2-3% range in recent years. Figure 4 – Annual % CPI Increase in NE China7 7 All China Data Center, China Data Online, http://chinadataonline.org (accessed March 13, 2017). 7 Compared to the moderate deficit spending at the national level of 2.5%,7 the three provincial governments run significantly higher deficits, suggesting highly expansionary fiscal policies. Figure 5 - NE China – Government Deficit as Percentages of GDP8 “Culture, Education, Science & Healthcare” and administrative expenses make up the largest buckets of outflows.
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