UK RETAIL CEO TRACKER 2020 Overall CEO Turnover Reached a Seven Year High in 2019, with Retail CEO Churn Increasing 25% on the Previous Year
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UK RETAIL CEO TRACKER 2020 Overall CEO turnover reached a seven year high in 2019, with Retail CEO churn increasing 25% on the previous year. UK RETAIL CEO TRACKER REPORT 2020 2020 KORN FERRY UK RETAIL CEO TRACKER BY SARAH LIM 2020 marks a new dawn for the UK. Following on from 2½ years of political uncertainty, the resounding election result in December 2019 sees the start of a new chapter both for the country, and the economy. At the end of 2019, we saw the FTSE 100 up 12% over the year; the biggest annual gain since 2016 (the year of the referendum), with one in five Britons expecting to be richer by the end of 2020. (YouGov report, 23 December 2019). Despite the challenges ahead in ‘getting Brexit done’, there appears to be renewed confidence that we enter AUTHOR the next decade with greater optimism. Maintaining this Sarah Lim level of confidence, and ensuring there is forward visibility Managing Director & Sector Lead, on the plans for a well-managed exit from the EU is going Retail, EMEA to be critical for the ongoing transformation of the Retail Korn Ferry International industry, which saw the toughest year in living memory in 2019, surpassing even that of the 2008 crisis. CONTRIBUTOR As we head into a new decade, one thing is for sure; Zoe Duke Retail will change unrecognisably over the next ten years and so those who lead our industry will need to do so too. This is the 8th Annual UK Retail CEO Tracker report, which tracks the changes in CEO moves across the industry, category by category and year on year. We hope you enjoy reading it. 3 2020 UK RETAIL CEO TRACKER 7 YEAR HIGH IN THE TURNOVER OF RETAIL CEOS At the start of 2019 we predicted a higher number of changes of Retail CEO in the year ahead, and so this indeed proved to be the case. During 2019, the last twelve months saw the greatest level of CEO churn in Retail since 2012; increasing 25% on the previous year. Introduction For the Retail sector, 2019 was the most difficult year in over a decade; perhaps longer. At a macro level, the UK economy slowed during the second half of 2019, from 0.3% GDP in the third quarter, to a predicted 0.2% GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019, yet Retail has suffered far more acutely in the past year than other industry sectors. The past year saw a perfect storm, created by ongoing digitalisation and changes to consumer shopping behaviour; wavering consumer confidence; continued uncertainty throughout the year over Brexit; a pending general election toward the end of the year; ongoing challenges of rent and business rates; and rising costs as a result of the weakness of sterling. All of this compounded to create Retail’s ‘Annus Horribilis’ in 2019, resulting in profit warnings, a further spate of CVA’s and a number of high profile high street names finally going into administration, including Debenhams, Mothercare, Clinton Cards, Karen Millen, Jack Wills, LK Bennett and Bonmarché, to name a few. It is perhaps not surprising therefore, that the sector response has been to change out the CEO. The industry has seen an unprecedented number of changes at the top over the past year, with CEO change rising 25%, from 44 in 2018 to 55 in 2019. This is the highest churn since 2012, when the number of changes was 56 in a single year. The Annual Retail CEO Tracker tracks changes in CEO appointments year-on-year which have taken place in the last 12 months, analysing over 200 retailers/brands operating across the UK and Ireland, across all categories. It covers all major brands and retailers, online and physical retailers, for companies whose revenues are at least £50m per annum, or more. 4 UK RETAIL CEO TRACKER REPORT 2020 Macro factors affecting the sector: • Continued political and economic uncertainty relating to Brexit • Digital transformation; physical stores to online and increased use of AI and robotics • An uneven playing field relating to taxation between bricks and mortar, and online retailers • Business rates and cost of rent continuing to have serious impact • Other costs – labour, currency and preparation for Brexit • Fragile consumer confidence and potential impact on consumer spending, but hopes for improvement during the year ahead 25% 55 24 rise in CEO change in 2019 changed seats, up from internally promoted 44 the previous year CEOs this year 5 notable findings from this year’s Annual Retail CEO Tracker: • There were a significantly higher number of CEO changes last year (55) compared with the number in the previous year (44) – up 25% • 38% of CEO changes saw the former CEO in seat for less than 3 years. This is another increase on the previous year • 21% of newly appointed CEOs came from a Finance background last year, compared to only 15% in the previous year • The percentage of female CEOs appointed has remained strong at 23% of the total, but the number of women running publicly quoted retail companies has significantly dropped • More CEO changes occurred within the sectors of Fashion, Luxury and Apparel than in any other category. Of the 20 CEOs appointed, 12 were internally promoted, showing a reversal in trend on the previous year 7 year trend in number of Retail CEO changes 2019 saw the greatest number of CEO exits in 7 years, reaching 55 exits in the full year. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 56 44 32 45 41 50 44 55 5 OVERALL CEO appointments by sub sector SUMMARY CEO changes in the 43% last 12 months 8% Compared to the previous year, 2019 saw a significant rise in the number of Retail CEO changes, 13% with 55 announced, versus 44 in 2018. Like last year, the sub-sector 6% 9% with the most significant number 21% of CEO changes was Fashion, Luxury and Apparel at 43% (see further note below). Fashion, Luxury and Apparel Pureplay Of the total number of CEO exits, Department Store Grocery there are 9 CEO seats presently vacant, Home and Garden Other for whom a replacement has not been announced; 1 will not be replaced (Bonmarché); 6 are yet to be confirmed if the CEO will be replaced on a like-for- like basis (Boden, Harvey Nichols, Jigsaw, Monsoon Accessorize, Argos Specific sector note – Fashion, and Topshop) and 2 are yet to announce Luxury and Apparel details of the new CEO (Matchesfashion and Ted Baker). In 2019, more CEO exits came from Only 7 of the 55 companies who changed the Fashion, Luxury and Apparel out their CEO are owned or part-owned sub-sector – 20 in total which by private equity/VC funds including represented 43% of all CEO changes. Alteri (Apollo), Apax, Bridgepoint, Of the 20 CEOs appointed in Fashion, Luxury Paloman Capital, L1 Retail & Electra, and Apparel, 12 of the 20 were internally promoted, highlighting the ongoing shift away including New Look (Nigel Oddy), George @ Asda from the Retail sector by private equity (Steph Strike), Charles Tyrwhitt (Luke Kingsnorth), investors. 25 of the companies are Figleaves (Jenni Burt), N Brown (Steve Johnson), private/family/member owned, and the Oasis (Sarah Welsh), Office (Kerry van der Merwe), remainder are either publicly quoted, Sweaty Betty (Julia Straus), Ted Baker (Lindsay or part publicly quoted companies. Page – promoted and then exited later in the year), Many changes were driven as a result of Warehouse (Paula Stewart). This is in stark contrast poor trading performance for example to last year, where 75% of the CEO appointments Shoe Zone, M&S (Clothing and General in that sector came from outside the company. Merchandise), Office, and/or Owner/ The 8 CEOs appointed externally were: Clarks Founder intervention, for example at (Giorgio Presca), Hotter Shoes (Ian Watson), AO.com, Boden, Superdry, Charles Joules (Nick Jones), LK Bennett (Darren Topp – Tyrwhitt, Clarks, Ted Baker; and/or who returned to the brand), Marks & Spencer broader CEO succession planning, (Richard Price – to start later in 2020), Net a Porter for example at SSP, Topps Tiles or (Nicola Brandolese), River Island (Will Kernan) River Island. and Stella McCartney (Gabriele Maggio). 6 UK RETAIL CEO TRACKER REPORT 2020 CEO appointments by sub sector Top CEOs to watch Top appointments ‘to watch’ over the next year: Ken Murphy, who steps into his first CEO role when he takes over the reins from Dave Lewis at Tesco later this year; Thierry Garnier, who took over as Group CEO of Kingfisher Group in September with a brief to turnaround the ailing fortunes of the Group; and Dame Sharon White, who will join the John Lewis Partnership in early 2020 to lead the John Lewis and Waitrose businesses as part of its new merged partnership structure. The other key Grocery sector appointments to watch will be Mel Smith at Ocado Retail, who took the helm as the newly appointed CEO of the new Ocado/M&S joint venture in the summer of 2019. This promises to be a game changer for M&S, as Ocado transitions out of its longstanding partnership with Waitrose later this year. Within Fashion, attention will be on high profile turnaround agendas: Nigel Oddy as he steps up into the CEO role at New Look; Ian Grabiner as he seeks to make Topshop relevant again; and Will Kernan as he looks to rejuvenate River Island’s fortunes and put digital at the heart of its agenda. In Department Stores, many will be watching to see if Stefaan Vansteenkiste, the non-retail restructuring expert, can perform the miracle needed at Debenhams, and Richard Price when he arrives later in the year to take on Jill McDonald’s former role at M&S.