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Dubai Real Estate Report Q3 2019

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Dubai Real Estate Report Q3 2019 Property Review Dubai Real Estate Report Q3 2019 BUILDING The building consultancy team at Asteco have a wealth of experience and an in-depth knowledge CONSULTANCY of construction technology, building pathology and effective project management methods With you throughout all stages of your which enable us to provide our Clients with a comprehensive building consultancy service. built asset lifecycle Technical Due Snagging Area Diligence Inspections Verification Life Cycle Schedules of Schedules of Costing Dilapidations Condition Project RERA Technical Building Monitoring and Reports Condition Audits Surveys Defect Project Insurance Analysis Management Reinstatement For more details, please contact Valuation Nick Constantine, BSc (Hons) MRICS, Head of Building Consultancy [email protected] DUBAI MARKET OVERVIEW SUPPLY* RENTAL RATES SALES PRICES New apartment supply slowed marginally in the third quarter of 2019 with the handover Apartment, villa and office rental rates continued their Sales price movement for apartments, villas and of 4,600 units, compared to over 5,000 in both Q1 and Q2. downward trajectory and recorded quarterly declines offices recorded similar drops of 2% to 3% compared of 3%, 2% and 3%, respectively. to the previous quarter, and declines of between 13% Conversely, villa stock increased significantly, recording an additional 2,500 units in Q3 and 16% since Q3 2018. 2019 (more than the first two quarters combined - 2,200 units). Similarly, new office Annual changes remained in double digits with inventory delivered in Q3 reached 950,000 sq.ft., exceeding the entire total of the first average drops of 12%, 10% and 13%. Asteco Government initiatives continued to be rolled out to half of the year. anticipates that this trend is likely to solidify due to the increase transparency, boost confidence and sheer volume of supply expected for handover in the ultimately increase investment into the market. Despite ambitious handover plans, new supply is likely to fall short of earlier estimates. short to medium term. Delivery is now expected to reach a total of just over 20,000 apartments and 7,500 villas In addition to the formation of the Higher Real Estate in 2019 (by year-end). Whilst the softening market conditions are good news Planning Committee and the New Jointly Owned for many Residents, it is important to note that Property Law**, RERA introduced ‘Mollak’ in July 2019, Whilst these figures represent a marked decline on previous projections, it is still a securing reduced rents requires negotiating skills an electronic system that has been designed as the significant volume and a notable increase from 2018, which recorded deliveries of 12,000 from the individual Tenants and a willingness to move first phase to meet registration and regulation apartments and 2,750 villas. should the Landlord proof unyielding. requirements for Owners Associations. In an effort to achieve a more sustainable balance between supply and demand, the It should also be mentioned that (long-term) Lessees In fact, the Dubai Land Department (DLD) data Dubai Government announced (early September) the formation of the Higher Real Estate who have been paying below market rents (as they revealed an increase in transactional activity (volume Planning Committee consisting of leading government and industry figures. are protected by the rental cap) could expect marginal and value) over the last three months compared to rental increases in line with the law. same period last year. Whilst, in part, due to the The committee’s objectives include: increased choice, affordability, payment/finance Residents also need to assess the financial benefits of options, etc., it is important to point out that the • Reducing the risk of oversupply; discounts/incentives against the cost/stress of moving. Dubai Real Estate market is greatly driven by • Ensuring that Semi-Government Real Estate companies do not Whilst in many cases the scale tips in favour of the sentiment meaning positive/encouraging government compete with private sector Developers; and latter, a growing disparity will likely lead to increased announcements often result in short term peaks in • Developing a comprehensive Real Estate development strategy Tenant relocation in the face of intransigent activity. for the Emirate over the next 10 years. Landlords. Despite these efforts, prolonged global economic The committee will advise on matters relating to financing regulations with industry headwinds, mainly due to US-China trade tensions representatives suggesting that foreign competition in the banking/finance sector could and uncertainties surrounding Brexit, are likely to help boost lending (currently only Emirati institutions are permitted to loan). continue to weaken employment growth and spending, which will dampen Real Estate investment. Whilst this establishment is expected to boost the real estate market and economy over the medium to long term, no further details as to its implementation have been announced. * It is important to note that whilst a number of projects may have received completion certificates, Asteco does not consider a project delivered until the handover process has been initiated, or the units are available for lease in the open market. ** Further details are provided by Al Tamimi & Co. on page 31. 03 Dubai Real Estate Report - Q3 2019 DUBAI SUPPLY COMPLETED IN COMPLETED IN EXPECTED IN H1 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 11,000 4,600 5,000 APARTMENTS NO. OF UNITS 2,200 2,500 2,500 VILLAS NO. OF UNITS 0.9 0.95 1.25 OFFICES MILLION SQ.FT. 04 Dubai Real Estate Report - Q3 2019 DUBAI APARTMENT RENTAL RATES (All figures in AED 000’s p.a.) STUDIO 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOMS 3 BEDROOMS % CHANGE Q2 2019 - Q3 2018 - FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO Q3 2019 Q3 2019 HIGH TO LUXURY END DIFC 50 70 65 110 75 150 95 220 -5% -9% DOWNTOWN DUBAI 42.5 70 57.5 90 80 140 120 200 -3% -11% PALM JUMEIRAH 55 75 60 130 100 180 115 200 -3% -10% SHEIKH ZAYED ROAD 50 65 60 90 65 140 85 160 -1% -10% MID TO HIGH END BUSINESS BAY 40 55 50 70 70 110 110 140 -2% -11% DUBAI MARINA 35 65 45 85 65 130 80 190 -3% -11% GREENS 37.5 55 50 75 72.5 115 95 150 -2% -12% JUMEIRAH BEACH RESIDENCE 55 70 60 85 80 120 105 150 -3% -12% JUMEIRAH LAKES TOWERS 35 50 40 70 50 95 75 135 -3% -15% AFFORDABLE AFFORDABLE DEIRA 18 45 25 65 37.5 80 60 110 -4% -9% DISCOVERY GARDENS 24 35 37.5 55 70 85 - - -2% -10% DUBAI SPORTS CITY 24 37.5 35 50 50 75 70 85 -5% -16% INTERNATIONAL CITY 18 27.5 25 40 40 58 65 80 -3% -11% JUMEIRAH VILLAGE 25 37.5 32.5 50 47.5 75 70 100 -5% -15% 11% Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Since peak Since market low % Change Since Q2 2019 Since Q3 2018 Q2 2014 Q3 2011 -3% -12% -35% 05 Dubai Real Estate Report - Q3 2019 DUBAI APARTMENT SALES PRICES Q-o-Q % Change Y-o-Y % Change AED per sq.ft. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 (Q2 2019 - Q3 2019) (Q3 2018 - Q3 2019) HIGH TO LUXURY END DIFC 800 1,800 -2% -9% DOWNTOWN DUBAI 850 1,850 -2% -11% PALM JUMEIRAH 775 1,900 -2% -13% MID TO HIGH END BUSINESS BAY 725 1,375 -1% -9% DUBAI MARINA 600 1,750 -2% -11% GREENS 650 1,200 -3% -16% JUMEIRAH BEACH RESIDENCE 750 1,250 0% -10% JUMEIRAH LAKES TOWERS 650 1,100 -3% -13% AFFORDABLE DISCOVERY GARDENS 500 650 -4% -21% DUBAI SPORTS CITY 500 800 -4% -14% INTERNATIONAL CITY 350 625 -5% -17% JUMEIRAH VILLAGE 425 875 -4% -17% 18% Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Since peak Since market low % Change Since Q2 2019 Since Q3 2018 Q2 2014 Q3 2011 -3% -14% -35% 06 Dubai Real Estate Report - Q3 2019 DUBAI VILLA RENTAL RATES (All figures in AED 000’s p.a.) 2 BEDROOMS 3 BEDROOMS 4 BEDROOMS 5 BEDROOMS % CHANGE Q2 2019 - Q3 2018 - FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO Q3 2019 Q3 2019 ARABIAN RANCHES 85 125 100 160 140 240 170 270 -2% -10% DUBAI SILICON OASIS (CEDRE VILLAS) - - 130 150 140 160 160 185 -2% -9% DUBAI SPORTS CITY (VICTORY HEIGHTS) - - 120 145 150 185 170 250 -3% -10% JUMEIRAH - - 115 190 130 215 140 250 -3% -11% JUMEIRAH PARK - - 145 175 160 210 210 260 -1% -4% JUMEIRAH VILLAGE 80 120 85 125 80 140 120 170 -4% -14% MEADOWS - - 155 190 160 210 175 250 -2% -14% MIRDIF 55 90 65 110 80 140 100 150 -4% -13% PALM JUMEIRAH - - 165 265 225 385 320 800 -3% -9% SPRINGS 80 115 110 140 - - - - 0% -8% THE LAKES - - 135 190 200 260 240 280 -1% -4% UMM SUQEIM - - 115 200 130 240 160 300 -3% -10% Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Since peak Since market low % Change Since Q2 2019 Since Q3 2018 Q2 2014 Q2 2011 -2% -10% -37% -3% 07 Dubai Real Estate Report - Q3 2019 DUBAI VILLA SALES PRICES Q-o-Q % Change Y-o-Y % Change AED per sq.ft. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 (Q2 2019 - Q3 2019) (Q3 2018 - Q3 2019) ARABIAN RANCHES 600 1,100 -3% -13% DUBAI SILICON OASIS 575 725 0% -13% (CEDRE VILLAS) DUBAI SPORTS CITY 700 950 0% -13% (VICTORY HEIGHTS) JUMEIRAH PARK 600 850 -3% -15% JUMEIRAH VILLAGE 400 775 0% -11% MEADOWS 750 1,000 -3% -17% PALM JUMEIRAH 700 3,750 -1% -13% SPRINGS 600 875 -3% -15% 4% Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Since peak Since market low % Change Since Q2 2019 Since Q3 2018 Q2 2014 Q3 2011 -2% -13% -38% 08 Dubai Real Estate Report - Q3 2019 DUBAI OFFICE RENTAL RATES (All figures in AED per sq.ft.
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