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Estimating Illicit Financial Flows Resulting from Drug Trafficking and Other Transnational Organized Crimes

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Estimating Illicit Financial Flows Resulting from Drug Trafficking and Other Transnational Organized Crimes Estimating illicit financial flows resulting from drug trafficking and other transnational organized crimes Research Report (final draft) NOT FOR QUOTATION Estimating illicit financial flows resulting from drug trafficking and other transnational organized crimes - 31 August 2011 CONTENTS KEY FINDINGS .......................................................................................................... 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................ 6 Introduction......................................................................................................................................................... 10 Scope of the study................................................................................................................................................ 10 1) ESTIMATING THE GLOBAL PROCEEDS OF CRIME..................................... 12 a) Methodological approaches proposed in the literature.......................................................................... 12 b) Analysis of previous estimates .................................................................................................................. 16 i. FATF estimates....................................................................................................................................... 17 ii. IMF estimates ......................................................................................................................................... 18 iii. National estimates................................................................................................................................... 18 iv. Global estimates linked to drug trafficking............................................................................................. 31 v. Private sector estimates........................................................................................................................... 33 vi. NGO estimates........................................................................................................................................ 34 vii. Academic estimates ................................................................................................................................ 39 2) DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME SECTOR................................................................................................................... 51 a) Methodology............................................................................................................................................... 53 i. Overview ................................................................................................................................................ 53 ii. The models ............................................................................................................................................. 56 iii. The proceeds of crime ............................................................................................................................ 57 iv. The proportion of proceeds that is laundered.......................................................................................... 58 b) Application of the model(s) to ‘cocaine trafficking’ ............................................................................... 64 i. Estimating the proceeds of the illicit cocaine trade ................................................................................ 64 ii. Number of cocaine users......................................................................................................................... 65 iii. Cocaine consumption.............................................................................................................................. 66 iv. Cocaine prices......................................................................................................................................... 68 v. Estimating retail and wholesale value..................................................................................................... 69 vi. Estimating cocaine related gross profits ................................................................................................. 70 vii. Adjusting gross profits for seizures ........................................................................................................ 71 viii. Transit profits ......................................................................................................................................... 73 ix. The proportion of proceeds from the cocaine trade that is laundered..................................................... 81 x. Amounts of cocaine money laundered and main destinations of the laundered funds ......................... 116 3) SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF FINANCIAL FLOWS EMERGING FROM DRUG TRAFFICKING AND OTHER TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME....125 a) Implications of illicit financial flows contributing to the spread of transnational organized crime. 125 i. Financial flows resulting from trafficking in drugs .............................................................................. 126 ii. Financial flows emanating from smuggling of migrants and trafficking in persons............................. 135 iii. Financial flows emanating from the smuggling of counterfeit medicines ............................................ 137 2 Estimating illicit financial flows resulting from drug trafficking and other transnational organized crimes - 31 August 2011 b) Implications of investment of criminal financial flows in the licit sector............................................ 139 i. Distortion in the resource allocation..................................................................................................... 140 ii. Distortions of prices.............................................................................................................................. 141 iii. Distortions of consumption patterns and impact on imports................................................................. 142 iv. Distortion of exports and potential problems with investment and economic growth.......................... 142 v. Unfair competition................................................................................................................................ 146 vi. Corruption............................................................................................................................................. 146 vii. Risks of real sector volatility ................................................................................................................ 147 viii. Strengthening of skewed income and wealth distributions................................................................... 148 ix. Distortion of economic statistics and thus potential errors in economic policy decision-making ........ 149 x. Undermining the credibility of legal institutions .................................................................................. 149 c) Implications of laundering criminal financial flows, including in foreign jurisdictions.................... 150 i. Problems to generate sustainable economic growth ............................................................................. 152 ii. Volatility in the financial sector with macro-economic implications ................................................... 152 iii. Limited ability to maintain the separation between predicate crimes and money-laundering .............. 153 iv. Reputation of the financial centres ....................................................................................................... 154 v. Risk of legal sanctions ......................................................................................................................... 154 vi. Key role of global anti-money-laundering efforts – enabling the authorities to follow the money trail ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….155 4) EXISTING INTERNATIONAL LEGAL INSTRUMENTS TO TACKLE THE PROBLEM...............................................................................................................156 a) Overview................................................................................................................................................... 156 b) Most relevant stipulations in legal international instruments ............................................................. 158 i. United Nations Convention against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances, 1988 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….158 ii. FATF Recommendations...................................................................................................................... 158 iii. 1998 Political Declaration and the related Action Plan (“Countering Money-Laundering”) ............... 160 iv. United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, 2000......................................... 161 v. United Nations Convention against Corruption. 2003.......................................................................... 161 vi. 2009 Political Declaration and Plan of Action on International Cooperation towards an Integrated and Balanced Strategy to counter the World Drug Problem........................................................................ 162 vii. 2010 Salvador Declaration on Comprehensive Strategies for Global Challenges: Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice Systems and Their Development in a Changing World............................................
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