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Agricultural Productivity Growth, Resilience, and Economic Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Agricultural Productivity Growth, Resilience, and Economic Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa Agricultural Productivity Growth, Resilience, and Economic Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa IMPLICATIONS FOR USAID BY T. S. JAYNE, LOUISE FOX, KEITH FUGLIE, AND ADESOJI ADELAJA This report was prepared for the Board for International Food and Agricultural Development (BIFAD) by T.S. Jayne, Louise Fox, Keith Fuglie, and Adesoji Adelaja through the Association of Public and Land-grant Universities (APLU). T. S. Jayne is University Foundation Professor of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics at Michigan State University. Louise Fox is Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Visiting Scholar at the Blum Center for Developing Economies at the University of California Berkeley, and formerly Chief Economist at USAID. Keith Fuglie is Senior Economist at the USDA Economic Research Service and formerly Senior Economist at the Bureau of Resilience and Food Security, USAID. Adesoji Adelaja is the John A. Hannah Distinguished Professor in Land Policy, Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics at Michigan State University. BIFAD is a seven-member, presidentially appointed federal advisory board established in 1975 under Title XII of the Foreign Assistance Act. This report was commissioned by the following members of BIFAD in August, 2020: Dr. Mark E. Keenum, BIFAD Chairman and President, Mississippi State University; Dr. Pamela K. Anderson, Director General Emerita, International Potato Center; Mr. James M. Ash, Food and Agribusiness Group Head, Husch Blackwell LLP; Dr. Brady Deaton, Chancellor Emeritus, University of Missouri; Dr. Gebisa Ejeta, Distinguished Professor, Purdue University; Mr. Richard Lackey, Founder and CEO, World Food Bank; Dr. Waded Cruzado, President, Montana State University. The authors acknowledge valued comments from Pamela Anderson, James Ash, Rob Bertram, Karen Brooks, Clara Cohen, Brady Deaton, Gebisa Ejeta, Thomas Hertel, Mark Keenum, Richard Lackey, Lourdes Martinez Romero, James Oehmke, and participants from USAID’s Bureau for Resilience and Food Security at an internal USAID briefing of the report, as well as editing support from Tetra Tech. The authors also thank Evgeniya Moskaleva, graduate research assistant at Michigan State University, for outstanding research support. The views expressed in this report are the authors’ own and should not be attributed to their affiliated institutions. Cover photo by Bariki Chambulikasi, DAI Global LLC This study is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. The contents also do not necessarily reflect the views of the Association of Public and Land-grant Universities (APLU). © 2021 Association of Public and Land-grant Universities (APLU). This publication is licensed for use under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). To view this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. The full report can be accessed electronically at: https://www.usaid.gov/bifad/documents/agricultural-productivity- growth-resilience-and-economic-transformation-sub-saharan-africa CONTENTS CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................................................................... 3 List of Tables .................................................................................................................................................................. 4 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................................ 4 List of Boxes ................................................................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................................................ 5 ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................................................. 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................ 8 Objectives and Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 8 What Does Economic Transformation and Resilience Mean? .................................................................................. 8 Main Findings ................................................................................................................................................................ 9 The Way Forward ........................................................................................................................................................ 11 Implications for USAID................................................................................................................................................ 15 1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 18 1.1 Motivation ......................................................................................................................................................... 18 1.2 Objectives ......................................................................................................................................................... 18 1.3 Report Outline .................................................................................................................................................. 19 2.0 ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION, RESILIENCE, AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH............. 20 2.1 Economic Transformation ............................................................................................................................... 20 2.2 The Agricultural Growth Pathway to Inclusive Economic Transformation .................................................. 22 2.3 Resilience .......................................................................................................................................................... 24 3.0 THE TRANSITION FROM RESOURCE-DEPENDENT TO PRODUCTIVITY-LED AGRICULTURAL GROWTH: LESSONS FROM SUCCESSFUL ASIAN AND AFRICAN CASES ....................................................................... 31 3.1 Assessing Progress toward Productivity-Led Agriculture Growth ............................................................... 31 3.2 Ethiopia: An Emerging African Agricultural Success Story .......................................................................... 36 3.3 Ghana: Turning the Corner from Stagnation to Growth in Agriculture ...................................................... 39 4.0 AFRICA’S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: SIGNIFICANT ACHIEVEMENTS, PERSISTENT CHALLENGES44 4.1 Unmistakable but Uneven Economic Transformation Underway ................................................................ 44 4.2 Drivers of Economic Transformation Since 2000 .......................................................................................... 45 4.3 Highly Diverse Economic Conditions and Priorities ..................................................................................... 49 5.0 THE WAY FORWARD ........................................................................................................................................... 66 5.1 Common Priorities ........................................................................................................................................... 66 6.0 AN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY-LED GROWTH AND TRANSFORMATION STRATEGY IS ESSENTIAL TO ACHIEVING USAID AND UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT (USG) FOREIGN ASSISTANCE OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................................................................................... 86 6.1 Agricultural Productivity-Led Growth in USAID Partner Countries Supports USAID and USG Objectives .. ........................................................................................................................................................................... 86 6.2 How USAID Should Support Agricultural Productivity-Led Growth ............................................................ 91 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................................................... 94 APPENDIX 1 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 102 Agricultural Productivity Growth, Resilience, and Economic Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa 3 List of Tables Table 1: Typology of Risk Management Strategies ......................................................................................................... 25 Table 2: Primary Crop Production and Productivity in Ghana ....................................................................................... 40 Table 3: Classification of
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