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Educational Choices in Ethiopia: What Determines Whether Poor Children Go to School?

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Educational Choices in Ethiopia: What Determines Whether Poor Children Go to School? Educational choices in Ethiopia: What determines whether poor children go to school? Young Lives Policy Brief 2 Educational choices in Ethiopia: What determines whether poor children go to school? INTRODUCTION Ethiopia has one of the lowest primary school enrolment rates and one of the highest illiteracy rates in the world. In 2002 Ethiopia’s adult literacy rate was 41.5 per cent and its gross primary enrolment rate was 66 per cent, significantly worse than the average for low income countries of 63.9 per cent and 98.6 per cent respectively.1 Government efforts have focused on expanding access to primary education, particularly in rural areas, but as a consequence, insufficient resources have been allocated to improving the quality of education.2 Recent education re- forms have resulted in progress towards access-related targets: the net rate of primary school enrolment increased from 35 per cent in 1997-1998 to approximately 57.4 per cent in 2003-2004. The Ministry of Education itself ac- knowledges that the need to allocate resources to expand coverage has diverted resources away from investment in quality-related improvements – teacher to student ratio, curricula reform, textbook to student ratio1– so the qual- ity of schooling is likely to decrease. Completion rates in primary school remain much lower than enrolment rates. Table 1 Another key problem in Ethiopia is the presence of REGion MALE FEMALE TotAL regional, urban/rural and gender disparities. Figures Addis Ababa 90.3 97.6 94.0 set out in Table 1 show a great variation in enrol- Harari 91.7 72.9 82.5 ment ratios between regions, with a particular con- Benishangul-Gumuz 86.3 65.2 76.0 trast between urban regions like Addis Ababa and Gambella 89.6 54.2 72.5 Harari – with a 94 per cent enrolment rate – and Tigray 63..6 68.7 66.1 rural regions such as the Southern Nations, Nation- SNNP 74.2 52.6 63.5 alities, and Peoples Region (SNNP) trailing by nearly Oromia 70.7 52.4 61.6 30 percentage points. The nationwide gap between Dire Dawa 67.6 52.8 60.4 boys and girls is high but is generally even wider in Amhara 54.6 53.1 53.9 rural areas. Regional disparities are largely explaina- Somale 14.8 7.8 11.6 ble by distance to school: according to statistics from Afar 12.6 9.0 11.0 the Ministry of Education, a quarter of the popula- Average 65.1 53.3 59.4 tion lives four or more kilometres away from primary schools – implying a very high cost in terms of time, Net Enrolment Rate (NER) at Primary (1–8) Level by Region transport, energy and safety for children to attend Ministry of Education, 2003/2004 school on a regular basis. There are conflicting opinions as to whether Ethiopia will achieve Millennium Development Goal Number 2 – universal primary education (UPE) – by 2015. Based on an analysis of existing trends, Ethiopia’s enrolment rate would need to grow at an annual rate of 3.8 per cent in order to achieve UPE. A recent estimate by UNDP sug- gests Ethiopia has considerable potential to achieve the goal even before 2015.4 However, there is concern that persistent problems within the formal education system, as well as external factors that affect household deci- sions on schooling, could prevent the goal from being met. It should be noted that the projection that Ethiopia is on track is based on the country’s average enrolment rate. It conceals the fact that the goal is not likely to be met in the country as a whole as rural enrolment rates would need to increase at an improbably rapid rate – given the paucity of currently available resources. Young Lives Policy Brief 2 1 Educational choices in Ethiopia: What determines whether poor children go to school? There is an additional dimension that needs to be tackled in order to improve schooling indicators. While the general focus has been on supply of educational services, not much attention has been paid to out-of-school factors that influence the demand for schooling. This is a concern which the Young Lives Project (YL) – a 15-year longitudinal policy-research project in four countries (Ethiopia, India (Andhra Pradesh), Peru and Vietnam) which aims to reveal the links between international and national policies and children’s day-to-day lives, with the objec- tive of influencing national policies to improve the wellbeing of children living in poverty – seeks to emphasise. Achieving UPE will necessitate not only sustaining and improving current policies in the education sector but also iden- tifying complementary policy interventions to address the range of external causes for insufficient school enrolment. II. SuppLY-sidE poLiciES in THE EducAtion SEctor Recognising the fundamental role of education in social development and poverty reduction, the first multi-year Educa- tion Sector Development Plan (ESDP I) in 1997 initiated a range of programmes related to the provision of educational services (generally dubbed ‘supply side’ programmes) that have continued to be supported. These include: • increasing the number of, and upgrading, school buildings • expanding teacher training programmes • allowing children to progress between grades one and three without being held back on account of inad- equate performance • using local languages in the classroom • developing context-appropriate primary school syllabi and textbooks • eliminating school fees • developing quality assessment mechanisms. However, the mid-term review of ESDP I shows that while there has been progress in expanding enrolment and improving some inequalities, the quality of education has deteriorated. This is reflected in shortages of qualified primary school teachers and textbooks, increasing class sizes and an inadequate curriculum. It is hoped that ESDP II will build on the achievements of the first phase and overcome its shortcomings. Financing concerns in the education sector hinder efforts to address Ethiopia’s educational crisis. The sector is heavily dependent on external assistance, making it vulnerable to changes in donor policy. Although the govern- ment officially allocates 13.4 per cent of its total expenditure to education, as a result of delays in transfer of funds and failure to fulfil commitments, it has only been able to cover 64 per cent of the total education budget for the period 2002-05. Given that universal primary education for all by 2015 is one of the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to which the international donor community pledged in 2000, it is essential that donors work closely with the Ethio- pian government in order to achieve this goal. In practice, however, in 2003 aid to Ethiopia was just US $21.50 per capita per year.5 Government and donor estimates for Ethiopia suggest that it will take US $122 billion to meet the 2015 MDG deadline, including the allocation of US $33.4 billion for rural development and food security, and US $13.1 billion for health. This translates into approximately US $125 per capita per year. Assuming that the Govern- ment can mobilise domestic resources for half this amount, nearly US $62 per capita per year in aid, it would still be insufficient. In order to tackle poverty reduction effectively, it will be important to not only increase overseas development assistance (ODA) but also its allocation to core sectors. In recent years 31% of total ODA has been allocated to humanitarian assistance while the agriculture, education and health sectors received only seven per cent of total allocations, which is well below these sectors’ financial needs. Ultimately, the long-term sustainability of sectoral policies should be aimed at reducing dependence on external finance, but this necessitates a transition to more adequate and efficient levels of public spending in the social sector. Efforts to maximise resources, particularly in education, require increased fiscal and expenditure efficiency, including better management, targeting and use of resources to ensure that national programmes have increased ownership and stability. 2 Young Lives Policy Brief 2 Educational choices in Ethiopia: What determines whether poor children go to school? III. FActors AffEctinG THE DEMAnd for scHooL 6 In addition to education sector shortcomings, it is also necessary to explore another set of causes that result in the persistent problem of low enrolment and reduced demand for education services.7 YL quantitative findings are based on descriptive and multivariate analyses of data designed to explore correla- tions between children’s enrolment in school and factors outside the school system that affect enrolment.8 The variables in the analysis included: household wealth index; parental education; structural social capital (defined as citizens’ participation in community groups); school accessibility (proxied by distance); household size; child work; economic shocks and ownership of land.9 The multivariate analysis robustly indicated that the following factors had a significant impact on child enrolment: a) Household Wealth: The decision to send a child to school depends to a large extent on the direct and indirect costs to the household and their capacity to afford them. Direct costs include clothing, books, transport, and school fees. Indirect costs include loss of children’s wages if schooling competes with paid work, or the loss of children’s unpaid labour on the family farm or doing household chores. Given that rural households are more sensitive to schooling costs, even small charges can have an impact on rural households and lead to higher drop-out rates than similar charges in urban areas. YL research confirmed previous findings that children who combine school with work are considerably more likely not to enrol in school or to drop out before the end of the school cycle. There is evidence in the literature10 that the type and amount of child work will depend on the relative wealth of poor households.
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