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Think Piece: the Quantitative Impact of Conflict on Education

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Think Piece: the Quantitative Impact of Conflict on Education 2011/ED/EFA/MRT/PI/50 Think piece prepared for the Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2011 The hidden crisis: Armed conflict and education The quantitative impact of conflict on education UNESCO Institute for Statistics 2010 This paper was commissioned by the Education for All Global Monitoring Report as background information to assist in drafting the 2011 report. It has not been edited by the team. The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the EFA Global Monitoring Report or to UNESCO. The papers can be cited with the following reference: “Think piece commissioned for the EFA Global Monitoring Report 2011, The hidden crisis: Armed conflict and education”. For further information, please contact [email protected]. The quantitative impact of conflict on education UNESCO Institute for Statistics September 2010 The quantitative impact of conflict on education 2 Abstract This study examines the impact of armed conflict on the population of twenty-five countries, finding substantial negative effects of exposure to conflict on educational attainment and literacy. Using household survey data from Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys conducted between 2000 and 2008, analysis at the national and sub-national level reveals that conflict often leaves an unfortunate legacy for the affected generations: smaller shares of the population with formal schooling, fewer average years of education, and decreased literacy rates, which persist over time. Furthermore, in many countries existing gaps between marginalized groups, such as women, and the rest of the population worsen during conflict. The study contributes to the growing literature in this field by demonstrating the lasting impact of conflict on education for a large and diverse set of countries. Keywords: education, attainment, literacy, conflict, disparity, household survey This publication was prepared by Sheena Bell ([email protected]) and Friedrich Huebler ([email protected]) of the Education Indicators and Data Analysis unit of the UNESCO Institute for Statistics. The authors would like to thank Amélie Gagnon, Olivier Labé and Patrick Montjourides for their valuable comments. The authors are responsible for the choice and presentation of the facts contained in this publication and for the opinions expressed therein which are not necessarily those of UNESCO and do not commit the Organization. The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNESCO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. UNESCO Institute for Statistics CP 6128 Succursale Centre-Ville Montreal, QC H3C 3J7 Canada www.uis.unesco.org The quantitative impact of conflict on education 3 Table of contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 4 2. Methodology .............................................................................................................. 7 3. Country analysis: Arab States ................................................................................. 12 3.1 Iraq ........................................................................................................................ 12 3.2 Yemen ................................................................................................................... 16 4. Country analysis: Central and Eastern Europe ........................................................ 20 4.1 Bosnia and Herzegovina ....................................................................................... 20 4.2 Turkey ................................................................................................................... 22 5. Country analysis: Central Asia 5.1 Tajikistan ............................................................................................................... 25 6. Country analysis: East Asia and the Pacific ............................................................. 27 6.1 Cambodia .............................................................................................................. 27 7. Country analysis: Latin America and the Caribbean ................................................ 31 7.1 Colombia ............................................................................................................... 31 7.2 Guatemala ............................................................................................................. 34 8. Country analysis: South and West Asia ................................................................... 38 8.1 Afghanistan ........................................................................................................... 38 8.2 India ...................................................................................................................... 41 8.3 Pakistan ................................................................................................................ 46 9. Country analysis: Sub-Saharan Africa ..................................................................... 50 9.1 Burundi .................................................................................................................. 50 9.2 Central African Republic ........................................................................................ 53 9.3 Chad ..................................................................................................................... 55 9.4 Congo, Democratic Republic of the ....................................................................... 59 9.5 Congo, Republic of the .......................................................................................... 65 9.6 Côte d’Ivoire .......................................................................................................... 70 9.7 Eritrea ................................................................................................................... 73 9.8 Ethiopia ................................................................................................................. 76 9.9 Mozambique .......................................................................................................... 79 9.10 Rwanda ............................................................................................................... 84 9.11 Sierra Leone ........................................................................................................ 90 9.12 Somalia ............................................................................................................... 92 9.13 Uganda ................................................................................................................ 96 9.14 Zimbabwe .......................................................................................................... 103 10. Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 109 Bibliography .............................................................................................................. 113 The quantitative impact of conflict on education 4 1. Introduction In the ten years since the adoption of the Education for All (EFA) goals in Dakar, Senegal in 2000, many regions of the world have shown remarkable gains toward meeting the six EFA goals by 2015. However, as the 2010 EFA Global Monitoring Report states, there are still many countries that remain far from achieving their commitments (UNESCO 2010a, 10). Conflict represents a major impediment for the realization of the EFA and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), especially for the universal completion of primary education and gender equality in primary and secondary education (Buckland 2005, 1).1 In fact, over half of the world’s primary-aged children out of school are estimated to live in conflict-affected fragile states (Nicolai 2008, 27). Given that armed conflicts vary in duration, intensity and localization, educational systems may be affected in different ways. Research has exposed many dimensions of the educational system that are negatively affected by conflict, especially with regard to existing inequalities within societies, whether by region, gender or ethnicity. On the other hand, not every conflict-affected country is off track for achieving the Millennium and EFA goals. The World Bank has identified 13 conflict-affected countries that are on track to meet the goal of universal primary education, including Colombia, El Salvador, Kosovo and Sri Lanka (Buckland 2005, 29). Some international organizations see conflict as both a major challenge and a major opportunity, as the post-conflict environment may be fertile ground for substantial development (Buckland 2005; Nicolai 2008). In order to improve educational policy responses during and after conflict periods, it is essential to understand the complex effects of conflict on education. Therefore, this study conducts a quantitative analysis of the effects of conflict on national education systems in the following 25 countries: Afghanistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Republic of the Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guatemala, India, Iraq, Mozambique, Pakistan,
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