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Situational Brief | July 2020 COVID-19 and Stabilisation: Governance Implications for the Lake Chad Basin Region UNDP Regional Stabilisation Programme for the Lake Chad Basin Disclaimer: The analysis and policy recommendations in this publication do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations, including the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) or United Nations Member States. © UNDP 2020 Contents Preface to COVID-19 Situational Brief Series 1 Executive Summary 3 Rapid Rise in COVID-19 Cases in the LCB region 3 COVID-19 Coincides with Rising Insecurity 3 Shifts in COVID-19 Response Strategies 4 COVID-19 Impact on Human Rights 4 COVID-19 and Government Accountability and Transparency 4 COVID-19 Affecting Electoral Processes 4 Reduced Access to Services and Service Delivery 5 Disrupted Access to Markets 5 Growing Public Discontent 5 Recommendations 6 1. Introduction 7 2. COVID-19 in LCB States and Territories: Confirmed Cases and Projections 8 Table 1.0: National Level Data for LCB Countries 8 Figure 1.0: Graph of Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in LCB Countries Relative to Regional and Continental Patterns 9 Table 2.0: COVID-19 Cases in LCB Territories 9 Figure 2.0: Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in LCB Territories as of 27 June 2020 10 3. Overview of the Security Situation Since the COVID-19 Outbreak 12 Figure 3.0: Violent Activity Involving Boko Haram by Type of Event and Location (1 January 2016 – 11 May 2019) 13 4. Responses to COVID-19 in the LCB States and Territories 15 5. Emerging Impacts on Governance Issues 17 a. Human Rights and International Humanitarian Laws 17 b. Government Accountability and Transparency Issues 18 Table 3.0: Transparency and Accountability Rating of LCB Countries in 2019 19 Table 4.0: Corruption Perception Index of LCB Countries 2019 19 c. Postponement of Elections 20 d. Reduced Access to Services and Service Delivery 20 e. Disrupted Access to Market 23 f. Growing Public Discontent 24 Recommendations 26 Annex 1: COVID-19 Containment Measures and their Impacts and Socio-Economic Mitigation Initiatives in LCB Countries (with Implication for LCB Territories) 28 Situational Brief | July 2020 Preface to COVID-19 Situational Brief Series The UNDP Regional Stabilisation Facility for Lake Chad is pleased to introduce a situational brief series focused on exploring the potential and emerging implications of COVID-19 for stabilisation, recovery, and resilience in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB). The situational brief series takes the assumption that the spread of COVID-19, including its spread, and the response strategies by governments at different levels have implications for communities, citizens, government programmes and priorities, resources, and capabilities. Experiences from other regions of Africa and the world point to COVID-19 as a ‘watershed’ moment, marked by seismic shifts in local, national, regional, and international realities. The UN Secretary-General, in his remarks sanitary and physical distancing measures, a to the Security Council on the COVID-19 looming debt crisis, as well as related political Pandemic on 9 April 2020, noted that “the and security risks.”2 pandemic also poses a significant threat to international peace and security -- potentially Experiences from other parts of the world leading to an increase in social unrest and signpost why and how COVID-19 constitutes violence that would greatly undermine our a trigger for significant disruption of socio- ability to fight the disease.” The UNSG also economic, political, and associational life, and noted that the COVID-19 pandemic threatens the security dynamic. Put simply, COVID-19 to erode trust in public institutions, creates ushers in a ‘New Normal’, a COVID-19 era. major economic stressors especially for Like other parts of the world, the LCB region women in fragile societies, and possibly is not immune to the spread and impact creates or heightens political tensions and of COVID-19. The multi-layered and multi- turmoil in fragile and conflict-prone societies. dimensional nature of the crisis in the LCB It could also provide opportunities for terrorist region would suggest that COVID-19 and groups to launch strikes and escalate the response strategies are most likely going to threats of bioterrorist attacks that could increase the complexities of the crisis in the undermine international conflict resolution region; it could affect and even undermine efforts, thereby exacerbating human rights the priorities, resources, and capabilities challenges.1 of local and international actors, including governments. The Secretary-General also issued an initial assessment of the impact of COVID-19 in The prevalence of COVID-19 in the LCB area Africa in May 2020, warning that “while the and Africa at large is rising, and epidemiological immediate health impact is still evolving, models and recent experiences of other the indirect consequences beyond health countries and regions of the world point to already bring a heavy toll. These include food a rapid acceleration over the coming weeks insecurity, lack of medical supplies, loss of and months. In LCB territories and countries, income and livelihood, difficulties in applying the available data point to a steady increase in the number of confirmed cases. The initial 1 See “Secretary-General’s remarks to the Security Council on the COVID-19 Pandemic”, 09 April 2020, available at https://www.un.org/ 2 United Nations (2020), “Policy Brief: Impact of COVID-19 in Africa”, sg/en/content/sg/statement/2020-04-09/secretary-generals-remarks- p.2 https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/sg_policy_brief_on_ the-security-council-the-covid-19-pandemic-delivered covid-19_impact_on_africa_may_2020.pdf 1 Situational Brief | July 2020 lockdown strategy and the subsequent democratic accountability and transparency, phased re-opening preferred by LCB states service delivery, and market interface in the to slow down and manage the spread of Lake Chad Basin region, and the implications COVID-19 continues to have implications for of this on the stabilisation agenda. The second governments and governance, as well as will focus on the implications of COVID-19 citizens and societies at large. for resilience building in the LCB region, including farming and agriculture, informal The situational brief series is intended to economic activity, religion and social support trace and analyse the evolution of COVID-19 systems, access to humanitarian services, and response strategies in the LCB states, and social protection initiatives. The third including areas affected by the Boko Haram brief will look into the impact of COVID-19 on insurgency. It also aims to provide initial rapid youth radicalisation and violent extremism, analysis and assessment of the implications including how COVID-19 and response for priority themes and the overall stabilisation strategies adopted by governments impact agenda as contained in the Regional youth livelihoods, education, associational life, Stabilisation Strategy. The situational briefs poverty and deprivation, and the relationship are also intended to trigger initial reflections between young people and state authorities. and requisite changes in approaches, The fourth brief will explore the implications programming priorities, and potential ‘re- of COVID-19 and response strategies for purposing’ of strategies and resources, and vulnerable groups, specifically women and the ‘re-calibration’ of capabilities in respect girls, concerning Sexual and Gender-Based to the stabilisation agenda for the LCB area. Violence in the LCB with emphasis on rape Given the disruptions and associated panic (criminal rape and marital rape), domestic occasioned by COVID-19 across the board, violence, women’s economic activities and the briefs are intended to refocus and sustain effects of poverty, such as prostitution. attention on the stabilisation agenda in the LCB, in order to align and integrate COVID-19 strategies into the broader stabilisation agenda in the LCB. Finally, COVID-19 is not only about challenges, but it could also represent or present opportunities for rethinking strategies and transitioning to smarter approaches and ways of working. The situational briefs are thus intended to start the process of identifying opportunities for optimizing the stabilisation agenda in the LCB, including exploring ways of adopting a regional approach (RSS) and operationalizing the “New Ways of Working” in a COVID-19 era. This first situational brief covers governance, exploring how COVID-19 could impact governance issues, especially human rights, 2 Situational Brief | July 2020 Executive Summary As the spread of COVID-19 unfolds in Africa, its governance and socio-economic consequences will continue to evolve. This policy report is the first in a series of rapid assessments of the implications of COVID-19 and its containment on the prevailing stabilisation agenda in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB). It focuses on the implications of COVID-19 and its containment measures for governance issues such as human rights, government democratic accountability and transparency, delivery of services, access to the market, and public discontent. It makes the following observations: Rapid Rise in COVID-19 Cases in the COVID-19 Coincides with Rising LCB region Insecurity COVID-19 is still evolving in the LCB region. The outbreak of COVID-19 is occurring Most of the key Boko Haram (BH)-affected amidst a deterioration of security in the LCB. areas are likely still in the early phases of Since 2019, the region has experienced
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