What Will the jewish WORLD look like in 2050 A MOMENT SYMPOSIUM

EDITOR GEORGE E. JOHNSON

INTERVIEWS BY MARILYN COOPER, GEORGE E. JOHNSON & LAURENCE? WOLFF with

SARAH BUNIN BENOR / DAVID BIALE STEVEN M. COHEN / ALAN COOPERMAN ARNOLD DASHEFSKY / ANITA DIAMANT SYLVIA BARACK FISHMAN / SAMUEL HEILMAN WILLIAM HELMREICH / BETHAMIE HOROWITZ ARI Y. KELMAN / BARRY A. KOSMIN SERGIO DELLA PERGOLA / LEONARD SAXE IRA SHESKIN / ARNON SOFFER

n May 1964, Look magazine ran a cover story omi- nity look like in 2050, and what trends should demographers be nously headlined “The Vanishing American Jew.” focusing on to find out? Since Jewish trends can’t be separated in the United States, the article predicted, would dis- from larger geopolitical ones, it also explores international di- Iappear by the year 2000. The popular magazine folded mensions of the Jewish demographic future. We include , seven years later, and despite numerous dire predictions based where the debate about the future of the Jewish people is at least on assimilation trends and intermarriage surveys, America’s as vigorous as in the United States. Unlike in the U.S., where EDITOR Jews didn’t disappear. In fact, over the last decade, a counter- sample surveys are conducted by nongovernmental entities, narrative—backed by numerous studies—has emerged, chal- Israel collects official data on the religious groupings, fertility GEORGE E. JOHNSON lenging the idea that the American Jewish population is in rates, education trends and population movements of Jewish danger of extinction, questioning the notion that there is a and Arab Israelis, Palestinians and Bedouins—all of which are INTERVIEWS BY single accepted definition of Jewishness and disputing that in- relevant for determining the character of the Jewish state. MARILYN COOPER, termarriage is an existential threat to Jewish continuity. The We have assembled some of the most eminent demogra- Pew Research Center’s 2013 “A Portrait of Jewish Americans” phers, historians, sociologists, geographers and other pre- GEORGE E. JOHNSON expanded the intensity of the debate over what it means to be scient observers of Jewish life. Despite the oft-cited Talmudic & LAURENCE WOLFF Jewish, how to measure the pulse of American Jewry and what disclaimer that “since the Temple was destroyed, prophecy the American Jewish future holds. has been taken from prophets and given to fools and chil- This issue’s symposium asks: What will the Jewish commu- dren,” they agreed to share their insights for this symposium. ? JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017 / MOMENT 45 ARNOLD DASHEFSKY & IRA SHESKIN

Everybody keeps saying that Jews are assimilating. Yet all three methods that currently are being used to count Jews In response to those who say that young people are “dis- are finding more Jews than there were 25 years ago. We tancing” themselves from the Jewish community, a better have three estimates of the number of Jews in the United description is “differencing.” We have a lot of people today States using three different methods. The Pew Research who are part Jewish. They have more than one identity. We Center used random digit dialing nationwide and came up also have people who are simply being Jewish in different with about 6.7 million. In the American Jewish Year Book, ways than they were 50 years ago. The 2014 Miami study we estimate, based on local Jewish community studies and sponsored by the Greater Miami Jewish Federation found other methods, 6.8 million. The Cohen Center at Brandeis, that 44 percent of adults under the age of 35 are taking which takes a whole bunch of surveys that ask questions classes or learning about Jewish topics informally through about religion, is coming up with 7.1 million. All three of the internet, on their own and with friends. Also, there are those estimates are within a relatively good range of one hundreds of Jewish book fairs, Jewish film festivals and Jew- another. Although each uses a different operational defini- ish music festivals. You can run an Israel Independence Day tion of Jewish identity, they all use the same sociological celebration in Broward County and get tens of thousands of definition: “One is Jewish who defines oneself people to come. Some of these people are in- as Jewish and is accepted by others as Jewish.” volved in synagogues. Most of them are not. THERE It isn’t just the number of Jews in various People are being Jewish in different ways. It ARE GOOD communities that makes us optimistic about might not be the absolute core of their iden- REASONS TO the Jewish future; it is the infrastructure of tity, but it is at least part of it. BE OPTIMISTIC the American Jewish community. There are Two final positive measures are how people ABOUT THE 145 Jewish Federations, more than 200 Jewish feel about being Jewish and how non-Jews feel JEWISH Community Centers, 750 national Jewish orga- about Jews. The 2013 Pew report asked the FUTURE nizations and 100 Jewish museums today. Fifty question, are you proud of being Jewish? Over- years ago, there were a handful of Jewish mu- all, 94 percent answered “yes.” Even for those seums. There are now 165 Holocaust museums, 155 Jewish who had no religious identification, 86 percent claimed to be overnight camps, 139 national Jewish publications and about proud to be Jewish. A 2014 Pew study asked a representative 3,500 synagogues. If the number of Jews dropped to half a sample of Americans how warmly they felt about other reli- million, we would have tremendous difficulty running a com- gious groups. Jews rated the highest. You might even argue munity, and many Jewish institutions would close. But as long that some people intermarry with Jews as a form of upward as there are a reasonable number of Jews and a reasonable mobility. These broader transformations provide evidence for number of them are dedicated to seeing this Jewish enterprise some more optimistic conclusions about the future of Ameri- continue, we can be confident that it will continue. can Jewish life. Over the past 50 years, we’ve seen two important trends: The Arnold Dashefsky is an emeritus professor of sociology and director of geographical dispersion of Jews and increased intermarriage. the Center for Judaic Studies and Contemporary Jewish Life at the These trends are likely to continue. However, high internet us- University of Connecticut. He is coeditor of the American Jewish age links Jews in tiny communities and intermarried couples to Year Book. an amazing number of websites to access information, interact Ira Sheskin is a professor and chair of the Department of Geography with various parts of the American Jewish community, find com- at the University of Miami. He is coeditor of the American Jewish munity and keep up with what’s going on in Israel. Year Book.

46 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017 BARRY A. KOSMIN

Counting Jews is like holding jello: It’s hard to get your hands not just a photograph. The Jewish debate tends to around it. The problem with the Jews is that they’re not just focus primarily on the composition of the 20 percent on the pe- a biological population. It’s not only about births and deaths. riphery. It’s also mostly about young people, who matter for the For the past few hundred years, Jews have been battered by the future. If you look at intermarried people today, you only see half locomotive of history. What really makes the difference is po- the picture, because you don’t meet all the people who were pre- litical events—wars and revolutions and migrations. Moreover, viously Jewish who no longer sign up for being Jewish. the majority of Jews alive today live on a differ- We live in complicated times. In 1990, studying ent continent and speak a different language from intermarriage was about marriages. Today, large ONE what their great-grandparents spoke. That’s a par- numbers of people are in relationships. Some are PERSON’S ticularly Jewish phenomenon. having children. Single people are having children. JEW IS Social boundaries are the key issue. There’s a Gay couples are having children. Some of those ANOTHER tremendous debate among demographers over are Jewish. Is the child adopted? Is it biological? PERSON’S who is a Jew. One person’s Jew is another per- Which partner is the biological Jew? It used to be GENTILE son’s Gentile. What’s growing, what’s declining, binary, Jew and Gentile. Now we have an alphabet what’s Jewish, what’s not Jewish? There’s a lot soup: JBCs (Jews by Choice), JBRs (Jews by Reli- of self-certification. People without formal attachment say gion) and JNRs (Jews with No Religion). It’s not a demogra- they’re Jewish. Some people we regard as Jewish say they’re pher’s job to determine who is a Jew, but rather to identify these not Jewish. If my child joins the Hare Krishnas, does he still categories for those who make community policy. count as Jewish? If he joins the Mormons, probably less so. If Barry A. Kosmin is a research professor of public policy and law and he joins Jews for Jesus, what then? founding director of the Institute for the Study of Secularism in Soci- To properly assess trends, you actually need the whole movie, ety and Culture at Trinity College in Hartford, Connecticut.

ANITA DIAMANT

We do not have the kinds of data needed to make a halfway a community-wide commitment to embracing families that in- reasonable guess at what the Jewish community will look clude a Jewish and a non-Jewish parent has increased the num- like in 2050. For example, there have been no studies about ber of those connecting to in measurable ways. the role and impact of people who have converted to Juda- Predicting the future is a fool’s errand, but I’m pretty con- ism. We have lots of anecdotes, but no research. I fear that fident that the American Jewish community will look quite much of the data we collect is still colored by different in 50 years. Like the rest of the a lot of assumptions about what it means to American population, we will be more racially THE JEWISH be Jewish. Are we talking about a halachic or and ethnically diverse, thanks to conversion, FUTURE WILL legal designation? Looking at congregational interracial marriage and interracial adop- BE ETHNICALLY membership and other kinds of affiliation as tion, and the immigration of non-white, non- AND RACIALLY primary indicators of “Jewishness” might not Western Jews. We have always been a racially DIVERSE be relevant for a generation that tends not to and ethnically diverse people; perhaps by join organizations—not just Jewish organiza- 2050, we will finally be able to see the beauty tions, but any organizations. and strength in that reality. Then there is the still-rampant assumption that intermar- Anita Diamant is the author of five novels, including The Red Tent, riage is an existential threat. When I hear Jewish leaders say, and six guides to contemporary Jewish life. Choosing a Jewish Life: “Intermarriage is an opportunity, not a crisis,” it often sounds A Handbook for People Converting to Judaism and for Their like they’re trying to talk themselves into believing it. Again, Families and Friends was recently updated in a new edition by there’s not a lot of data, but in Boston, at least, it appears that Schocken Books.

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017 / MOMENT 47 Counting Jews is like holding jello: It’s hard to get your hands around it.

SAMUEL HEILMAN

I’ve often said—and I’m not the only one—that a little anti- ment of who they are. The attachment to their Jewish iden- Semitism, or at least anxiety about it, can go a long way in ensur- tity and to Israel, as we already see, is declining precipitously ing the Jewish future. In some ways, being loved to death via as- among young people and those who identify themselves as similation, as we have been in America, is more dangerous than “just Jewish” in recent surveys. That will widen the gap be- being hated. And who can predict what impact the explosion of tween the growing Orthodox minority and all other Jews. It anti-Semitic and racist expression during and after the recent will be difficult for the Jews to act as a collective community presidential election will have on the future of Jews and Jewish in their relationship to the state and to institutions of the life in America? Everything that follows could change. state, because the state won’t know who speaks for the Jews. There are certain things, however, I think it is safe to pre- For the majority, the role of rabbi will be less important. As dict. One is that Jewish identity will continue to have mean- more people who are not halachically Jewish call themselves ing for people, but not necessarily the same meaning for all Jews, rabbis will increasingly have to figure out what rabbinic the people who call themselves Jewish. And the leadership means. idea that there is a single Jewish people, if it To the outside world, it looks like the ever really existed, is unlikely to persist. I think CONTINUING Orthodox are ascendant in American Jew- the idea of Jewish distinctiveness in America FRAGMENTATION ish life. But this is because, increasingly, is something that will diminish. There will be OF IDENTITY the Orthodox are the only Jews who see some Jews who are highly distinctive—mostly WILL MAKE being Jewish as essential to who they are haredi Orthodox—and they will continue to IT HARD TO KNOW and are still interested in things manifestly claim to speak for all Jews and to define them- WHO WILL SPEAK Jewish. Other Jews are more interested in selves as the most authentic. FOR THE JEWS less parochial and more cosmopolitan is- But there will be other Jews, likely the majority, sues. That leaves the Orthodox and people for whom that whole debate is rather meaning- for whom Jewish identity is central to who less, who will consider their Jewish identity as something largely they are and how they present themselves as the people who symbolic—their cultural heritage and their origins, but not nec- speak for and as Jews. That’s why so many politicians who essarily coincident with purely religious or ethnic identity. That look to speak with and to the interests of Jews commonly will mean that Jewish character and identity will be contested by look for photo ops with rabbis with long beards, Jewish or- different parts of the Jewish world. That, alas, means that Israeli ganizational leaders or Israeli politicians—even though those and are likely to move further apart—something people do not really represent the majority of Jews. But that’s we can see already (except among the Orthodox). not because they’re in the ascendancy in numbers. It’s that Who the leaders of the Jewish community in America are they’re the only ones left in the Jewish building. will be much more open and ambiguous than it already is. Samuel Heilman, a professor of sociology at Queens College of the City Spokespersons and leaders for the majority will be hard to University of New York, is the author of the forthcoming book Who find, since being Jewish will not be the essential or core ele- Will Lead Us? The Story of Five Hasidic Dynasties in America.

48 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017 DAVID BIALE

On a variety of measures, the percentage of Jews outside the the territories remain a part of Israel and yet the Palestinian Orthodox world who call themselves atheists is very high. Arabs living there do not have citizenship—my definition of This includes members of synagogues and par- an apartheid situation—it will fracture American ticipants in Jewish institutions. This puts the Jews. Some will identify with it and say it’s perfectly many Jews who have a nonreligious identifica- THE DEBATE fine, while others will be very disaffected. And the tion outside the American mainstream, which is OVER ISRAEL’S sort of opposition you get now, which is somewhat not particularly secular. FUTURE IS marginal in groups such as Jewish Voice for Peace There also is a struggle within Israel between POISONING (which is sometimes profoundly anti-Zionist), the secular, nationalist Zionist tradition and vari- OUR CULTURE will become more and more acceptable. Israel has ous types of religious forces, some of which are served as a unifying force for earlier generations, actually anti-Zionist and some of which are hyper-Zionist, such but that’s going to be less true. People will have to find other as the settler movement. That struggle has spilled over into the ways to identify or they won’t identify at all. American Jewish community. It has, in my judgment, poisoned David Biale, professor of Jewish history at the University of Califor- our culture, so that people will no longer talk to each other. nia-Davis, is the author of Not in the Heavens: The Tradition It would be interesting to project forward 33 years, because if of Jewish Secular Thought.

SYLVIA BARACK FISHMAN

The vast majority of American Jews today are more comfort- a profound impact on the parents as well. able with and proud of their Jewishness than at any other So, what experiences made the first group more likely to time in the modern era. But if you look closely at the Ameri- create Jewish families? We found that being involved with can Jewish community, particularly at younger Jews and Jewish educational settings as teenagers was key to how Jew- specifically non-haredi Orthodox Jewish adults between 25 ishly involved they were in college and as young single adults and 49, as Steve Cohen and I did in analyzing the 2013 Pew after college. Jewish educational experiences in college—such report, you see two trends that are going to be more pro- as Jewish studies classes, informal educational experiences in nounced as the years pass. We see a very substantial minority Hillel and Birthright Israel—also make a big difference in who are creating Jewish homes and raising later attachments. These patterns are likely to Jewish children and feel connected with Is- become more pronounced in the future. People JEWISH EDUCATION rael, even though some of them might feel in conventional Jewish families will have more DURING TEENAGE critical of Israel. And then we see another, Jewish children and give them more Jewish YEARS IS THE larger group that is much more weakly con- education. By 2050, they’ll be grown up, they’ll KEY TO JEWISH nected to Jews and Jewishness and might have families of their own and the pattern will CONTINUITY not even have strong feelings about Jewish- repeat itself. Conversely, the group that doesn’t ness or Israel. Those in the second group have those Jewish educational experiences as who are not married or are married to people who aren’t teenagers will tend to marry late, not marry, marry non-Jews, Jewish, or do not say that their homes are Jewish, are promi- not have children—or if they do, one child—and will be much nent in the group that is much less likely to have children, less likely themselves to be Jewishly connected and much less and if they do have children, they are much less likely to say likely to produce children who will be strongly connected they are raising them as Jews. Those who say they are raising Jewishly tomorrow. their children as Jewish by religion are much more involved Sylvia Barack Fishman is the Joseph and Esther Foster Professor with every kind of Jewishness you could measure. People al- of Contemporary Jewish Life at Brandeis University, codirector ways think about how much parents influence children, but of the Hadassah-Brandeis Institute and author of eight books on it turns out that having kids in any kind of Jewish school has American Jewish life.

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017 / MOMENT 49 WILLIAM HELMREICH

However you play around with the numbers, the outlook— ligion, believes in that. There’s nothing uniquely Jewish not only for the Jewish community, but for Israel’s survival— about it. Nothing is more emblematic of the underlying doesn’t look good. Those who take comfort in the growth of problem than AIPAC’s spending $30 million to defeat the the Orthodox community should realize that an unknown Iran deal. At the end of the day, eight of the ten Jewish percentage of them defect. If this were not happening, then, senators voted for the deal. If AIPAC’s strong efforts can’t given their high birthrate, they would already even get a majority of Jewish senators, that have been at least 50 percent of the total Jew- JEWS ARE bodes very badly for the future of the Ameri- ish population. Let’s also not forget that non- CHOOSING can Jewish community. We are counting them observant Jews are assimilating and intermar- LIBERALISM as Jews, but we’re not understanding who they rying at an alarming rate, thus decreasing their OVER JEWISH are. What constitutes a healthy Jewish identity numbers. I do know anecdotally that a certain IDENTITY is changing dramatically. In my view, it’s weak- percentage of Hasidic Jews defect. Also, in the ening. Fifteen years ago, nobody would have yeshiva community, there are families in which questioned voting against this deal. Basically, up to half the children are not observant. But the defection American Jews’ basic identity is liberal. That’s fine, but rate in the Orthodox community is not easily accessed and there’s nothing particularly Jewish about it. hasn’t been studied sufficiently. William Helmreich is a professor of sociology at the City College of In truth, Jews are disappearing as a people. And how New York. He is the author of The World of the Yeshiva: An In- strongly do most of them identify? Tikkun olam? Every timate Portrait of Orthodox Jewry, and The New York Nobody compassionate, liberal-minded person, regardless of re- Knows: Walking 6,000 Miles in the City.

BETHAMIE HOROWITZ

The study of population trends—though they are important ness will evolve to incorporate more sophisticated and finely to track—misses out on a more crucial understanding of the honed approaches. state of the Jews in America. We need to expand our studies of Today, a lot of the research being done in the Jewish world the nature of Jewishness and the various ways it is expressed is programmatically driven (evaluations of philanthropic in the American context. The socio-demographic study model initiatives, for example) and as a result, we are missing the of a once-in-ten-years survey doesn’t take enough account of new developments, particularly new ways of expressing Jew- the context in which Jewishness is expressed. For example, the ishness, that are happening around us. I believe that going stage of one’s life and the particular moment in forward, Israel will be less the central focus history in which one lives make an enormous of American Jewish life. American Jewish difference in how an individual relates to his JEWISH culture—Jewish literature, filmmaking, in- or her Jewishness. The 2016 presidential elec- CONSCIOUSNESS vestigation of Jewish history, social justice tion is a case in point. Post-election American IS TRIGGERED BY practices, giving circles, klezmerfests and so Jews are more attuned to dangers in the envi- ENVIRONMENT, on, along with new expressions of Jewish re- ronment. A model that presumes that a person’s AGE AND ligiosity—will take its place. Some of these “Jewishness” does not change and proceeds to WORLD EVENTS developments are likely to be very differ- measure how much the person’s Jewishness de- ent from what we can anticipate today. One parts from a preconceived standard of what is hopes that by that time, research will be able a good Jew fails to capture the fact that one’s Jewishness is to reflect the new realities of the American Jewish landscape activated, in positive and negative ways, by the environment and have the communal support to do so. and changes over time. We need to be more finely attuned Bethamie Horowitz, a socio-psychologist, is a research assistant professor to those nuances as we study Jews in America. By the year of Jewish education at the Steinhardt School of Culture, Education, and 2050, I hope that the models for studying a person’s Jewish- Human Development at New York University.

50 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017 Demography is not destiny...The Future is in our hands to shape.

STEVEN M. COHEN

Straight-line projections are often wrong. But longstand- weakness in Jewish life. By and large, these connected and ing tendencies often continue. The growth in Orthodoxy committed younger Jews are uncomfortable with strong (in parallel with the strength of fundamentalist Christian group boundaries that seem to privilege Jews over others. groups in America) seems very likely to continue into the They disdain normative preference for in-marriage, con- mid-21st century. One strong indicator: Orthodox Jews are nections with Jewish friends and the Jewish State of Israel just 5 percent of the Jewish baby boomers but are 35 per- (with all its problems of intolerance and the occupation), cent of Jewish children under age five. In parallel, owing to or anything that seems tribalistic. Future research should massive intermarriage and to widespread acceptance of Jews examine instruments of Jewish education such as overnight in the larger society, we’re also seeing an ex- camps, Israel travel, campus rabbis (particular- plosive growth of the “marginally connected,” ly non-Orthodox, who are now found in small that is, people who recognize that they’re Jew- LESS TRIBAL numbers), Jewish preschools, conversion op- ish and have some Jewish ancestry. They feel WAYS OF portunities (be they rabbinic or personal) and Jewish and are proud to be Jewish, but don’t CONNECTION innovations for Jewish young adults such as have much involvement with Jewish life, don’t WILL BE Moishe Houses. An area of current and prob- have other co-ethnics as their friends and don’t THE NORM ably ongoing concern: How do you keep Jews join institutions. In between the Orthodox and engaged with Israel and at the same time allow the Jews-by-feeling is the Jewish Middle (Jews who partici- politically liberal Jews to sharply criticize anti-democratic, pate in Jewish life outside of Orthodoxy). For the most part, theocratic and ultra-nationalist tendencies in the Israeli pol- they’re engaged Conservative and Reform Jews. Regretta- ity? Without an inspirational Israel, we lack a major pillar of bly, in parallel with mainline Protestants and Anglo-Cath- collective Jewish purpose, passion and commitment. olics, their numbers have diminished rapidly and will likely Steven M. Cohen, a sociologist, is a research professor of Jewish continue to do so in the decades to come. social policy at Hebrew Union College-Jewish Institute of Re- Today’s young adult Jews who are Jewishly connected ligion and the director of the Berman Jewish Policy Archive at but not Orthodox foreshadow the coming strength and Stanford University.

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017 / MOMENT 51 ALAN COOPERMAN

There is a lot of debate over whether intermarriage is increas- one in 50. In fact, the rate of in-marriage is a lot higher than ing or decreasing the Jewish population. The 2013 Pew study that. The rate of intermarriage for non-Orthodox Jews is 72 showed that the number of haredi Jews is growing, fueled percent. And for the rapidly growing group of Jews who iden- by high birthrates, while at the other end of the spectrum, tify themselves as Jews of no religion, the rate is 79 percent. the number of “Jews of no religion” is growing because of In-married Jews are much more likely to raise their children “switching” and, to some extent, intermarriage. as Jews by religion (96 percent), whereas just 20 The traditional Jewish middle—the Conserva- percent of intermarried couples said they were tive and Reform movements—is still large but THE JURY IS raising their children as Jewish by religion, and appears to be shrinking, at least in percentage OUT ON THE 37 percent said they were not raising their chil- terms. The American Jewish population is sta- EFFECTS OF dren as Jewish. On the other hand, more than ble or growing slowly, but declining as a por- INTERMARRIAGE half (63 percent) of those who intermarried said tion of the overall U.S. population. that they were raising their children Jewish in Although the rate of intermarriage was some way. An increasing proportion of the chil- steady during the years 2000-2013, at six in ten (58 percent), dren of Jewish intermarriages are choosing as young adults to there is considerable room for the rate of intermarriage to identify as Jewish. So there is some evidence to support both grow. Even though the rate of intermarriage is historically sides of the debate. high, one could argue that the rate still is low, considering Alan Cooperman is the director of religion research at the Pew that Jews are only 2 percent of the U.S. population and the Research Center and conducted the 2013 “A Portrait of Jewish random likelihood of a Jew marrying another Jew would be Americans” study.

LEONARD SAXE

Demography is not destiny. The size of the future Jewish to identify who is Jewish, the U.S. Jewish population is now population is not a fixed outcome of the Jewish birthrate; the 7.2 million. Until recently, nearly as many Jews were ceasing character of the population is yet to be shaped, not molded to identify as Jews as we were gaining by Jewish immigration by your family’s denomination. Who, and how many of us, and the birthrate of some sectors of the population. But a there are is going to depend on how the Jewish community shift is underway and the population is now steadily increas- responds to the challenges of 21st-century life. ing. Intermarriage, rather than being a source of negative Consider how much demographic change has occurred in growth, is contributing to an increase in the population. less than a generation. For the post-war Baby Boomer gen- As Yogi Berra famously said, “It’s tough to make predic- eration, and the Gen Xers who followed tions, especially about the future.” But them, intermarriage was a genuine threat what can be said with some confidence is INTERMARRIAGE to Jewish continuity. Only about 30 per- that the number of Jews is as much a func- AND BETTER cent of the children of intermarried par- tion of the size and intensity of the Jew- EDUCATION LEAD ents born between 1945 and 1980 identify ish education system as any of the current TO AN INCREASED as Jews when they become adults. That rate demographic facts. My simple prediction NUMBER OF doubled for millennial children of inter- is that if Jewish education continues to be AMERICAN JEWS marriage. It happened in part because the enhanced and transformed, the future is Reform movement welcomed non-Jewish bright. We’ll see many more people who partners and the children of intermarried parents. And it identify as Jews and many more Jews who understand and happened because the Jewish community, in response to appreciate the richness of Jewish cultural and religious life. the findings of the 1990 National Jewish Population Survey The future is in our hands to shape. (NJPS), invested money and ideas in Jewish education. Leonard Saxe is a professor of contemporary Jewish studies and di- The 1990 NJPS estimated that there were approximately rects the Cohen Center for Modern Jewish Studies and the Stein- 5.5 million Jews in the United States. Using similar criteria hardt Social Research Institute at Brandeis University.

52 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017 intermarriage is a good thing, It brings Jews and non-Jews together in a positive way.

Arnon Soffer

The history of the Jewish people depends on global geopoli- bers of Jews and Palestinians in Greater Palestine are equal. To- tics. And this will bring surprises. We all love Venice, Rome day there are three million Arabs in the West Bank, two million and Paris, but Europe will be a different place and the changes in Gaza, and 1.5 or 1.7 million in Israel. And the Arabs will soon will be linked with what will occur in Africa and the Middle be the majority. Arab fertility rates are declining in the Middle East. Africa’s population today is around 1.1 billion and by East at large and in Israel. But the death rate of Arabs is very 2050, there will be more than two and a half billion people low because it is such a young population. When you make the there. Global warming will be a catastrophe worldwide, but calculation, the Jewish people will increase 1.5 percent annually, initially Africa will suffer the most. Another sad story is, of and the Israeli-Arab population will grow at 2.2 percent. And course, the Middle East. I’m smiling because I’m crying. Egypt let us also look at the Bedouin. Soon they will be half a million, is going through a terrible catastrophe now with 90 million or 25 percent of the total Arab population in Israel. people, but can you imagine how the country As a secular Jew, my very sad prediction is that will be able to supply enough food and water in we will have a religious state and will annex the 2050? Europe will turn brown and black, receiv- HUGE Palestinian lands. Israel may not be Jewish as we ing migrants from the east, southeast and south. POPULATION understand it. There is no real difference in poli- Jews will not tolerate this and will leave Europe. SHIFTS AWAY tics between the national religious Jews and the Around 8.5 percent of Jews today live in Europe. FROM EUROPE ultra-Orthodox. Both will force the secular to By 2050, it will be no more than 5 percent. AND TOWARD stay in Israel under their rules or to leave. More Here is my vision of where the Jewish peo- ISRAEL, ASIA and more secular Israelis will leave for China, In- ple will live in 2050: Israel will be the core. In AND OCEANA dia, Australia and maybe the United States. They 2010, 42 percent of the global Jewish popula- ARE COMING will leave and be replaced by religious Jews. Sure, tion was in Israel. In 2050, Israel will be 58 we might still have the secular “state” of Tel Aviv. percent of the Jewish population, while Jews in Canada and But we cannot survive if the rest of the country is majority the United States will account for around 38 percent, or religious Zionist, ultra-Orthodox and Arab. possibly much lower. One more surprise. I can see 200,000 or about 1.2 percent Most people don’t realize that Israel is already nearly the of the total Jewish population living mainly in China in Bei- most densely populated country in the Western world. Israel’s jing and Shanghai, and in India, in particular, New Delhi. Af- Central Bureau of Statistics estimates a population of 16 million rica has no hope and South African Jews will decline radically. by 2059. Today, the Negev desert is 60 percent of Israel’s land, And Oceana—Australia and New Zealand—today at 1 percent, but it will increase to 70 percent because of climate change. could double its Jewish population to as many as 300,000. Also, and this may be surprising, half of Israel is reserved for Arnon Soffer is a retired professor of geography and environmental military land use. We are reaching the red line in Israel of physi- sciences in the Department of Geography at the University of Haifa, cal carrying capacity. And another surprise: This year, the num- an institution that he helped found.

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017 / MOMENT 53 Without an inspirational Israel,we lack a major pillar of collective Jewish purpose, passion and commitment.

Sergio della Pergola

Because of population shifts, Israel will become more influ- there are 1.1 million fewer Palestinians than what is reported. ential in the Jewish world. And it isn’t just that there’ll be That’s not true. He is saying this for political reasons. In the more haredim. Other parts of Israel will produce other lead- Knesset, a number of Likud party members rely on him, so ers in Jewish thought, ideas and culture. Israel might take they can say, “There is no demographic issue, so we can keep up the duty to help some smaller Jewish communities in the every square centimeter of the West Bank.” U.S., which it has already begun to do. This is a historical Also, the old Ashkenazim-versus-Sephardim dichotomy is shift in the power model. over. The socioeconomic gaps between these groups exist but The biggest demographic equation in Israel is that of Jews are declining. Most of the poor Ashkenazim are recent immi- and Palestinians, Israel and a Palestinian state, Jews and Arabs, grants from the Soviet Union. But some political parties try to majority and minority. This is the most crucial keep the separation and avoid integration. There issue in Israel, which the present government is ISRAEL, NOT is a lot of intermarriage between the two groups. simply ignoring, and this attitude, in my view, is AMERICA, WILL Of my four children, three are married, one to a totally wrong. The meaning of Israel is to be the BECOME THE Sephardi, one to an Ashkenazi and the third to a state of the Jews, and to be the state of the Jews CENTER OF mixture of Ashkenazi and Sephardi. When I ask you need a conspicuous Jewish majority. The JEWISH LIFE my grandchildren what my wife and I are, they say frontiers of that state must include a population we are Jews of Italian origin. When I ask them, that is overwhelmingly Jewish. Today, the minority is about 20 “What are you?” They say, “I’m a Jew. I’m an Israeli.” percent. If you include the West Bank and Gaza, then there If one million American Jews make —you laugh and I is no Jewish majority. A 50/50 society is not a Jewish state. laugh—they could have 25 members of Knesset and could pass Eighty/twenty, you can say it is Jewish. Sixty/forty, if you don’t laws with the help of many Israelis who share their values. In that incorporate Gaza, is a statistical majority, but not sustainable sense, whatever we expect to happen in the political arena reflects in terms of the identity of the state. We have examples like this the demographic composition and the will of the people. in Cyprus, Kosovo versus Serbia, Lebanon, Guyana, etc. Israe- Sergio della Pergola is a professor emeritus of Israel-Diaspora Rela- li political consultant Yoram Ettinger, who is not a demogra- tionsat the Hebrew University’s Avraham Harman Institute of Con- pher, says the number of Palestinians is exaggerated, and that temporary Jewry. He is a specialist in the demography of world Jewry.

54 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017 SARAH BUNIN BENOR

People talk about demographic trends generally from one the public reactions to them focus too much on that particular of two approaches—survivalist/traditionalist or transfor- issue, and the way that people talk about intermarried couples mationalist. Survivalists are concerned about the survival of is unhelpful and unhealthy. the people and see any change as a potential negative. Trans- By 2050, because of intermarriage, a larger percentage formationalists see change as just what happens—either of our community will have one parent who wasn’t born neutral or positive. In approaching demo- Jewish—some converted, some not. With graphic trends, I am a transformationalist. TRANSFORMATION, that, we’ll have a lot more racial diver- The trend that gets discussed the most is INCLUDING sity. We already see that there are more intermarriage. This is where I differ from INTERMARRIAGE, Jews who are black, Latino or Asian, but many of my colleagues. I actually think in- IS A POSITIVE the sampling of our demographic studies termarriage is a good thing. I think it brings doesn’t include enough of them. To bet- Jews and non-Jews together in a positive way. ter understand their Jewishness, and that It is a sign that Jews are more accepted in American society of Jews in general, we need more qualitative research, using than they used to be. Also, intermarriage is unavoidable. And interviews and observation. talking about it as a disease, something that needs to be fixed, Sarah Bunin Benor is an associate professor of contemporary Jewish is offensive to the people who choose to marry someone they studies at the Los Angeles campus of Hebrew Union College–Jewish love. One of my concerns about our demographic studies is that Institute of Religion.

ARI Y. KELMAN

We may have been asking the wrong questions for the last If we are interested in understanding the strength or health 20 years. We have been asking about identity and affiliation, of the American Jewish Community, we should construct membership and “engagement,” but we don’t really know scales for measuring belonging and ask these questions. about how strongly or weakly people feel that Questions such as “Do you light Shabbat they belong to something called the American candles?” won’t tell you whether a person Jewish Community. What would happen if you BELONGING IS feels like a member of a Jewish community. surveyed people, even members of synagogues, MORE IMPORTANT Even if people could explain why they don’t about belonging and found that there are very THAN RITUAL feel like they belong to a Jewish community, low levels of belonging to something called the OBSERVANCE that would go a long way toward providing American Jewish Community, but at the same insights for institutions and organizations time that there were very high levels of belonging to some- interested in helping strengthen either the lives of indi- thing else? If people feel low levels of belonging to something vidual Jews or the overall well-being of what we refer to as larger than one’s family or one’s synagogue, then we might a “community.” not have an American Jewish Community, even though we Ari Y. Kelman is the Jim Joseph Professor of Education and Jewish might have lots and lots of very self-satisfied American Jews. Studies in the Graduate School of Education at Stanford University.

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JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017 / MOMENT 55