GOODS to PERSON (G2P) ROBOTICS [Ecommerce Warehouse Fulfilment] 4.9 Accelerated Growth Forecast
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Add Feedback GOODS TO PERSON (G2P) ROBOTICS [ecommerce warehouse fulfilment] 4.9 Accelerated growth forecast. China to account for bulk of AMR sales, PA-AMR’s to dominate the US in the short term Disclaimer This document does not constitute investment advice. While the analysis presented is based on interviews with a large number of suppliers & experts, extensive desk research and internal industry knowledge we are unable to guarantee the accuracy of the content. Readers are encouraged to fact check details. Our data-book can be requested for a fee. © Styleintelligence, Published February 2018 V1.3 Contact: [email protected], +44 (0)7870 210529 Consumers demand faster delivery; access to labour increasingly difficult; increased competition; G2P robotics is one solution Goods to Person (G2P) robotics covered in this report include AMR’s, PA-AMR’s and ASRS Acronym PA-AMR AMR ASRS Definition • Pick Assistant with AMR base, often including Lidar. • Autonomous Mobile Robot, (incl. AGV’s using fiducials) • Automated Storage and Retrieval System • Human collaborative robots • ‘Dark warehouse’ • ‘Dark warehouse’ • Deployed in existing warehouse infrastructure • Mainly deployed in existing warehouse infrastructure • Mainly deployed in new warehouses • Augmented picking • Move pods (shelves) to a pick & pack station • Includes high speed shuttle systems Use Case • Highest H&S specifications, such as lifting heavy goods, • Flexible & fast changing warehouse/sorting space • Medium to high goods density working among humans • Space efficiencies • AutoStore-type warehouse pick speed is low-medium • Low pick speed • Low-medium pick speed Suppliers CONTENTCONTENT P5. G2P ROBOTICS MATURITY P11. BUSINESS MODELS P16. AMAZON DEVELOPMENTS How do the different robot technologies compare What are the main business models offered? What did Amazon do after acquiring Kiva P2. SECTOR OVERVIEW (this page) in terms of market penetration and maturity? Which business models are most popular among Systems? Which companies are active in G2P robotics and Which customers are most likely to adopt G2P customers vs suppliers? what types of robots do they produce? robotics in the short to medium term? What proportion of interviewed companies offer P18. COMPANY PROFILES How mature are the technologies? what business model? P3. SECTOR FUNDRAISING & START UP ACTIVITY What do potential G2P robotics ecommerce P26. INTERVIEWEES What does the start up activity and fundraising customers look like? P13. MARKET DRIVERS landscape look like? What are the underlying drivers of the market? P27. ABOUT STYLEINTELLIGENCE & CONTACTS How has macro economic, political and P6.COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE & SEGMENTATION geographic factors influenced funding and start How do suppliers differ from each other by type P15. MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH up activity by type of robot? of product, customer target, functionality and How big is the market right now and what is the technology? potential for growth? © Styleintelligence, February 2018 Contact: [email protected], +44 (0)7870 210529 In 2012 Amazon caused a G2P Robotics Big Bang moment by acquiring and withdrawing Kiva Systems from general sale The market response was initially muted but start up activity accelerated in 2014 & 2015; traction is accelerating fast with large investments 1 A Brief History of Goods-to-Person Robotics AN ABSENCE OF COMPETITORS Start up Activity (newco’s) # It may sound as a cliché, but Kiva really did not 15 13 • Kiva robots withdrawn from sale Support for external Kiva have many (if any) competitors at the time of its AMR ASRS PA-AMR Ramping up of production • Deployed robots exceed 30,000 • 12 • clients expire acquisition. However, in the following three • Deployed robots exceed 15,000 years, between 2013 and 2015, there were 15 9 • Construct specific warehouses to accommodate robots 6 start ups working on and PA- . 5 • BIG BANG: Amazon acquire Kiva • Deployed robots exceed 45,000 in 20 warehouses AMR’s AMR’s 6 • 80,000 deployed robots 3 2 “AMR’s give a really high efficiency 1 1 1 1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 • GreyOrange raise $30m • EQT acquire majority stake in AutoStore level when combined with ‘chaos • Siemens invest in Magazino 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 Swisslog acquire CarryPick . In the case of ToysRus 2011 • Kuka acquire Swisslog, $335m • warehousing’ <=2010 Geek+ & Quicktron (Chinese suppliers) • 2013-15, Growth in the number of AMR & PA-AMR • they had 6 pick stations with a Publicly Available Fundraising 2 suppliers raise a combined ~$105m from investors including Alibaba & Warburg Pincus capacity of shipping 130,000 items $m • Pre-Kiva AGV’s, moving from A-B dominate material handling 120 AMR ASRS PA-AMR • A number of legacy companies release AMR’s per day. I think they had 3-4 put 100 stations. That facility operated 24-7. 80 KIVA REVENUE ESTIMATED AT $100M IN 2012 AMAZON WITHDRAW KIVA ROBOTS Initially ToysRus deployed 80 Kiva 60 Kiva Systems pioneered the G2P robotics Amazon strategically withdrew Kiva robots from robots over two floors and later 40 concept and had become a successful business in general sales to maintain and develop its expanded to 4 floors.“ (Wyncore) 20 its own right by the time Amazon acquired the advantage (estimated at 1-2 years ahead of the 0 company for $775m in 2012. competition). FEAR OF LEGAL ACTION IN THE US? 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 Having acquired Kiva (as opposed to taking a 2011 PA-AMR’s has dominated US start up activity, <=2010 stake in the business) and removed it from the “By the time amazon acquired kiva in possibly as a result of the fear of legal action by #Start up Activity by Country market Amazon accelerated R&D efforts may 2012, it was a 300-person Kiva’s Amazon. However, European and Asian start ups by providing full access to its warehouse 15 have built ‘Kiva similar type’ of robots, carrying 13 company with a long customer list environments. AMR ASRS PA-AMR shelves/pods to a picking station. so has the 12 This ability to iron out any problems in a live that included Walgreens, Staples, and willingness of suppliers to sell into the US market environment has constituted a large part of the 9 Saks, and roughly 30 warehouses increased. success of Amazon Robotics and is the reason As a possible side-effect, the Asian market for 6 deployed across Europe and North the company has now deployed more than AMR’s has developed rapidly over the last 2-3 3 3 America.” (Mick mountz, founder, 80,000 AMR’s worldwide. 3 2 years and is set to dominate AMR’s for some 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 This report does not include Amazon Robotics as kiva systems via ieee) time. However, a few larger recent AMR projects 0 US a supplier and all figures exclude Amazon UK in the US may challenge this domination. India Israel China Korea France Ireland deployments unless specified. Austria Norway Denmark 1 2 Germany A number of companies were founded pre-2010 but did not release AMR’s until mid-2010’s or later including HIK Vision and Bleum. Publicly available fundraising does not include EQT’s investment in AutoStore, etc. Switzerland © Styleintelligence, February 2018 Contact: [email protected], +44 (0)7870 210529 Most G2P start ups operate in countries with a high LPI score; US and Europe usual suspects, but China increasingly active A large and growing ecommerce sector, relatively high labour costs and a developed education system also nurture start up activity Robotics performance by Country, 2016 COUNTRY & CULTURE INFLUENCERS China, India and Russia the only ones Logistics Performance Index, 2016 1 GDP Close to half of the relevant companies falling below an average score of 3.7. 5.0 Max 22 Asia covered are located in the US with Russia is the laggard with an average 4.0 Robot Countries US & North America China, India and Germany in a ‘second score of 2.6. with 2-3 companies in each Average 20 Europe, MEA tier’ 3.0 Size = # companies country. The remaining companies “Salaries are a bit lower in operate in a variety of European Asian markets so ROI is 2.0 18 US, 13 countries. Min US companies have the widest robotic slightly longer than for 1.0 application covering all three types of European and US clients, but 16 robotics (AMR, PA-AMR, ASRS) with we are still seeing a lot of 0.0 India and Germany covering two each. interest.” (MIR) 14 Interviews with market experts indicate a growing number of suppliers of AMR’s in China as a result of increased funds LABOUR vs TECHNOLOGY COSTS Hourly Cost Robot vs Human Operator (€) 2 According to Roland Berger consulting € 12 China, 3 pouring into AI, Robotics and related the hourly cost for operating a robot 60 sectors backed by the “Made in China will be close to half of that of a human 50 50 2025” plan announced by the Chinese 10 government in 2015. by 2020. 40 39 Funding in China comes partially from Interviews suggest the cost for an AMR 30 is currently about equal to that of a full the large ecommerce players, JD.com 20 1820 19 Human 8 time staff member (Western measure). 15 17 and Alibaba among others and is also 10 There are no immediate indications this 10 Robot helping technology development with 0 access to logistics infrastructure. will change dramatically in the near 6 future. However, a leading Lidar 2005 2010 2015 2020 India, 3 France, 1 Germany, 2 However, most Chinese investments supplier recently announced it was are stake building. Such share holders Changes in Hourly Wages for Key Robot Countries 3 UK, 1 halving the price of one its most 4 may stifle R&D to some extent as % Ireland, 1 10 USA DEU FRA Korea, 1 suppliers have to deal with several popular products.