Somerset County Council County Hall, Taunton Somerset, TA1 4DY

SOMERSET

SCHOOL POPULATION

FORECAST

2019

PART 1: COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

March 2020 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 2 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1

SOMERSET SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST - 2019

PART 1 - COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

PART 2 - FORECAST DATA

APPENDIX A: BASIS OF SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST CALCULATIONS

APPENDIX B: GUIDANCE ON USE OF THE FORECAST DATA

INDEX OF FORECASTS

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PART 1: COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

The 2019 forecasts of pupil numbers for state-funded schools in Somerset are contained in this document. Part 1 provides a commentary on the trends and analysis of the key data. The forecast figures for each school and area are set out in Part 2.

New forecasts are produced annually based on the latest number on roll and pre-school children data. The annual exercise also enables any new information on school organisation or new housing developments to be included and allows the forecasts to react to changes in parental preference. The forecast data in this document has been calculated using as the base data, the actual number on roll for October 2019 (as supplied by schools as part of the Department for Education (DFE) School Census).

For primary schools the forecasts are produced for the period up to 2024, for middle school areas up to 2028, and for secondary school areas up to 2030. A summary of the way that the forecasts are calculated is set out in Appendix A of this document.

The forecast data are available for use as a general resource by all schools, local authority staff, and those with a wider interest in school pupil numbers. The forecast totals for each school will appear as part of the Somerset School Organisation Plan which is a key part of the LAs statutory responsibility for planning of school places. As part of that statutory duty, the forecast data is reported to the DFE as part of the annual School Capacity Collection return (SCAP). The DFE use the pupil forecast data to inform the basic need funding allocation which assists LAs in providing the school places required to meet future demand.

Key Trends The key headlines in terms of pupil numbers in Somerset are as follows: ►Primary aged pupil numbers across the County are forecast to fall until at least 2024; although there are still some local increases. ►There are forecast to be more primary schools seeing falling numbers and the size of drop is forecast to increase; ►A continuation until 2023 of the increase in the numbers of pupils in the secondary sector which stared in 2017. Numbers are forecast to plateau in 2024 and 2025 and then decline for the reminder of the forecast period; ►Substantial growth in secondary school number on roll is forecast in Bridgwater, Taunton and to a lesser extent in Yeovil, reflecting previous growth in primary school numbers in these areas; ►16+ pupil numbers remain a small proportion of the total roll but are subject to a greater level of variation from year to year when compared to other phases; ►An overall rising school roll in Somerset with numbers set to peak in 2021 and 2022 before beginning to decline from 2023. ►Further growth in the number of pupils in Somerset’s special schools;

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1. COUNTY LEVEL TRENDS

Calculation of County Forecasts: 1.1 In line with established best practice, the forecasts at County level (which appear in Part 2, page 5) have been calculated separately rather than by aggregation of the individual school forecasts. However, as part of the calculation of the forecasts the individual area totals are reconciled against the County forecast data as a means of validating the school forecasts. This process helps to avoid serious over/under- stating of the forecasts. The reconciliation process means that any difference between the two sets of totals generally lies within the forecast margin of error.

Primary aged pupils (Years R to 6) 1.2 From 2010 to 2018 there were 9 successive years of increase in the primary aged roll in Somerset resulting in an increase of 4607 pupils – an increase of 12.5%. As has been forecast previously, that period of increase is now at an end with the October 2019 roll 134 lower at 41254.

1.3 The forecast data shows that there will again be another small decrease in 2020 with more substantial falls each year for the rest of the forecast period up to 2024. By 2024 the number of pupils of primary school age in Somerset is forecast to have fallen by 2261 from the 2019 roll – a fall of 5.5%.

1.4 The recent rise in pupil numbers in the primary age range in Somerset has been part of a national trend. This is demonstrated in the accompanying Chart A, which plots the historical and forecast number of pupils in Somerset and England. DFE National Pupil Projections*1 are based on ONS national population projections and include a forecast of the national birth-rate giving data up to academic year 2027/28. By contrast, the forecasts for Somerset are based largely on the data for the living resident population available from the Somerset Health so only extend to 2024/25. If Somerset generally follows the forecast national trend there is unlikely to be any overall increase in primary age pupils before 2027/28. Although there could be some local increases where a community is expanding.

1.5 Whilst pupil numbers in Somerset have generally followed the national trend, Chart A shows that the primary actual roll in Somerset has climbed slightly less steeply than the DFE national data in the last few years. Also, the forecast data indicate that Somerset pupil numbers in the primary age range will fall a little more quickly than nationally whilst still following the same basic trend. This may reflect the predominantly rural nature of Somerset compared to the DFE national trend which, by definition, includes the more urban areas of the England as well.

1.6 As a result of previous increases in the birth rate the number of pupils entering Somerset primary schools at reception increased quite noticeably from 2007 reaching a peak in 2015 and 2016 with over 5900 pupils in both years. This has driven the large increases in the number of pupils in the primary sector. In line with the forecast, the actual number of reception year pupils in 2017 to 2019 has been lower - below 5800. The forecast reception year groups for the remainder of the forecast period show that numbers are expected to fall. By 2023, the extent of forecasts covered by live population data, the reception year is forecast to be 5252, a total that is 487 fewer than the 2019 reception year.

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Chart A - England & Somerset Trend in Pupil Numbers 55,000

Actual pupils number on roll, as Primary pupils Yr R-6 50,000 recorded in the DFE School Census, - England (00s) are indicated by a solid line; forecast numbers are denoted by a broken line. 45,000

Primary pupils Yr R-6 - Somerset 40,000

Secondary pupils Yr 7- 35,000 11 - England (00s) Number ofPupils 30,000

25,000

Secondary pupils Yr 7-11 - Somerset 20,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Year

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Chart B: Percentage change in number of births England & Wales/Somerset (2013 base 100) - Source: NOMIS 2.0

Somerset England & Wales 1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0

This chart shows the percentage point increase/decrease in the number of births from 2013 to 2018 (for presentation purposes 2013 is the base year -4.0 with a value of 0.0 from which all other calculations have been made). Data relates to calendar years. Data source: NOMIS - Live Births in England & Wales -5.0 The data in this chart has not been used in the calculation of the pupil roll forecasts but is included to provide supporting data. -6.0

-7.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

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Table 1: Change in KS1 and KS2 pupils 2009 - 2024 KS1 KS2 Total Difference Difference Difference Pupils Pupils Primary 2009 (A) 15899 20882 36781 2050 2078 4128 2016 (A) 17949 22960 40909 -638 983 345 2019 (A) 17311 23943 41254 -14 -99 -114 2020 (F) 17297 23844 41140 -1395 -753 -2261 2024 (F) 15902 23091 38993

Table 2: Change in secondary aged pupils 2003 – 2028 Years Years Total Difference Difference Difference 7-11 12+ Secondary 2003 (A) 29363 1702 31065 -4573 202 -4371 2016 (A) 24790 1904 26694 1201 -286 915 2019 (A) 25991 1618 27609 513 78 591 2020 (F) 26504 1696 28200 1356 64 1420 2023 (F) 27860 1760 29619 -868 145 -724 2028 (F) 26991 1905 28896

Table 1 & 2 Notes: [a] The actual data covers all state-funded schools in Somerset open at the respective Census date. The forecast data reflects current provision even though this may be different from the historical establishment of schools, eg where new provision has been established or where schools have closed. [b] The differences shown in the above tables are from the previous point (eg 2009 to 2016, or 2019 to 2020). [c] A = Actual; F = Forecast

1.7 The forecast decline in the number of reception pupils is a result of a fall in the birth rate across the County. Whilst the forecast data includes some expected gains from migration in the pre-school year groups, this is insufficient to offset the fall in the number of reception pupils. The recent decline in birth rate is not unique to Somerset and is part of the national trend. Chart B shows the relative change in the number of births in Somerset compared to England and Wales with a noticeable downturn in 2017 and 2018. (This data has been sourced from NOMIS*2 and is based on calendar year rather than academic year. As such it is included to provide supporting data as it is not used in the calculation of the Somerset pupil forecasts).

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1.8 The Somerset trend in pupil numbers is summarised in Table 1, which highlights some of the increases that have taken place since 2009 and those that are forecast up to 2024. Following a period when there has been a substantial increase in the number of primary aged pupils, the period covered by the forecast is one where numbers at both KS1 and KS2 are forecast to fall.

Secondary age pupils (Years 7 to 11): 1.9 From 2003 to 2016 there was a decline in the number of secondary aged pupils for 13 consecutive years as smaller year groups worked their way from the primary to the secondary sector. This saw the number of pupils in years 7 to 11 drop by 4573 (a fall of 15.6%). In line with the forecast, numbers have been increasing for the last three years meaning that there are 1201 more pupils in years 7-11 than there were in 2016 (a 4.8% increase). Secondary pupil numbers are forecast to continue to see a substantial increase with a further 1869 pupils by 2023 (a 7.2% increase). From 2016, the low point in the cycle in pupils in years 7 to 11, to 2023 there is a forecast increase in roll of 3070 pupils – a 12.4% increase. The forecasts show that the roll in 2024 and 2025 is expected to level out and is calculated to be very marginally lower than in 2023. However, the forecast fall is so small as to be within the margin of error of any forecast which means that the peak could occur as soon as 2023 or as late as 2025. From 2026 to 2030, there is a clear forecast decline in the secondary roll.

1.10 Chart A shows that, whilst the number of secondary aged pupils in Somerset has generally followed the national trend line, there has been an increasing divergence in recent years. The Chart shows that the 2020 England roll is forecast to overtake the previous peak in numbers from 2003 and continue rising until 2023. However, whilst the Somerset peak is forecast to occur in the same year, the forecast roll falls below the previous local peak. The 2023 forecast is for a roll that is 1503 lower than the corresponding 2003 Somerset roll. The forecast Somerset increase in secondary aged pupils is therefore less dramatic than the national trend.

Secondary age pupils (Years 12 and over): 1.11 In October 2019 there were 1618 pupils in secondary school 6th forms which is 44 more than forecast and an increase of 13 from 2018. With most 16+ provision in Somerset in the F.E. college sector, only a minority of students are on a school roll: fewer than 1 in 5 pupils in year 11 return to study in a school 6th form. The 6th form roll representing less than 2.5% of the roll of mainstream schools.

1.12 Following a period of increase up to 2015, the number of 6th from pupils has fallen across the County. Table 2 shows that the 2019 roll of 6th forms was 286 fewer than in October 2016. Part of the reason for this is that there have been smaller year groups reaching the end of KS4 in the last few years alongside a tendency for school 6th form provision to be less attractive as a post-16 option. This is evidenced by an overall decline in the year 11 to year 12 rate of staying-on into Somerset school 6th forms, which in 2014 was 23.7%, but by 2019 this had fallen to 18.6%.

1.13 There is a general forecast increase in school 6th form numbers throughout the forecast period. This largely reflects the size of the year groups reaching year 11 – no attempt is made to forecast any change in choices made by students. Revisions of the forecast data in future years will reflect any new trends when they emerge or any changes in provision when they are confirmed. The 6th form age groups are traditionally more complex to forecast due to the range of education and training options open to students after completing year 11. Therefore, there is always likely

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to be a greater margin of error in this forecast data than for the other secondary age groups.

1.14 Whilst the staying on rate into year 12 has fallen away, there has been a tendency towards a greater proportion of students staying on for two years. The year 13 roll is now averaging over 85% of the year 12 roll which is over 10 percentage points higher than it was in 2013.

Total Mainstream Roll (Pupils aged 4-17): 1.15 The October 2019 roll for all mainstream pupils in Somerset stood at 68863. This is 363 more than in October 2018, a 0.53% increase. The total roll is 20 less than the forecast total, a difference of 0.03%, which lies comfortably within the target of +/- 0.5% which is the benchmark for local authority level forecasts.

1.16 From 2003 the overall number of pupils in the County’s schools went into decline for a period of 10 years. From a peak of 70642 pupils numbers fell year each year to reach 65770 in 2010 – a fall of 4872 (6.9% of the total roll). Since the low point of numbers in 2010 there has been an increase in the total roll in 8 of the last 9 years with the 2019 roll 3093 higher than the 2010 figure. Although primary numbers are now not showing an increase there will be substantial increases in the secondary age ranges which mean that until 2021/22 academic year there will still be an overall rising school roll in Somerset. Thereafter, the total roll is forecast to decline slightly each year as the falling roll in the primary age ranges becomes the dominant factor in terms of total roll notwithstanding the growth in the secondary sector. The growth in pupil numbers is insufficient to take the total roll above the 2003 peak in the previous population cycle. The forecasts indicate that the total roll will peak at 69479 in 2021 which is 1163 below the 2003 peak as is shown in Chart C.

1.17 The overall trend in total school roll shown in the forecasts is in line with that which has been previously forecast. In general terms the Somerset forecast follows the DFE national projections although there are some minor areas of difference between them. It can be seen from Chart C that the forecast increase in pupil numbers in Somerset is not quite as pronounced as that expected for England as a whole. Nationally, there has been a slightly faster rate of increase with the 2015 roll exceeding the 2001 roll and forecast to continue rising and peak in 2023. Whereas in Somerset the peak roll is slightly earlier in 2021 and is lower than the previous peak which occurred in 2003.

1.18 When pupil numbers are rising overall, and particularly when there is substantial growth at secondary level, as well as the fundamental need to accommodate additional pupils, there are also likely to be pressures elsewhere in terms of the demand for support services such as for pupils with SEND and those requiring home to school transport.

Special Schools and PRUs: 1.19 Detailed forecasts for individual special schools are not calculated but for completeness, a summary table of overall number on roll is included in the forecast data. (All figures quoted in this section relate to pupils on-roll at the state-funded special schools in Somerset. As such it excludes pupils with SEN placed out-County or in non-maintained and independent special schools).

1.20 The October 2019 School Census recorded 753 pupils in state-funded special schools in Somerset. This is an increase of 78 pupils from the October 2018

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Chart C: Somerset & England School Population - Actual & Forecast

85,000

England Years R-11 (00s) 80,000

Somerset peak roll (2003) 75,000 Somerset - Years R-13

70,000

65,000 Somerset - Years R-11 Notes: 60,000 1. The timing of the respective forecasting work means that the latest DFE actual data available relates to 2018/19 academic year, whereas in Somerset the forecasts are based on the actual roll for academic year 2019/20.

Number ofpupils Number 2. Years on the x axis relate to the academic year - eg 2001 is A/Y 2001/02. 55,000 3. Actual data is indicated by a solid line, forecast data by a broken line. 4. England data has been divided by 100 to present it on the same scale as Somerset data. 5. DFE publish only limited data for 16+ pupil numbers so the line relates to pupils up to year 11 in state-funded schools; Somerset data is shown for years R-13 (for completeness) and Years R-11 (to provide a comparison with the DFE data). 50,000 6. England data from DFE 'National pupil projections – future trends in pupil numbers: July 2018 (July 2019 update)'; Somerset data from October School Census and 2019 School Population Forecast.

45,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 Year

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Census. This can be seen in the context of recent years where there has been an increasing number of pupils with complex needs that require a place at a specialist school. In 2012 the combined roll of the 8 special schools in Somerset was 431: excluding pupils at the recently opened at The Mendip School, the total roll at October 2019 was 618 – an increase of 187 pupils (a 43.4% increase) for the schools that were open in 2012.

1.21 The summary forecast for special schools (page 106) is based on the expectation that there will be further increases in the roll of special schools as further pupils require a specialist placement, however, the extent of the increase is largely speculative. The expected increase is based mainly on a combination of the following: • a continuation of the increase in the number of young people with complex needs: the 2019 special school roll is the equivalent of 1.09% of mainstream roll in Somerset - the equivalent proportion in 2012 was 0.65%. On the grounds that the proportion of pupils in special schools has been steadily rising there is an expectation that there will be further increases in the proportion of pupils requiring a special school placement. • the rising number of pupils of secondary school age: around 2 out of every 3 pupils on a special school roll is in year 7 and above. Given the general increase in the number of secondary school age pupils forecast for the next few years, there has to be some expectation that this will bring further increases in the special school roll. • the expansion of special school provision: the commissioning of further state-funded provision in Somerset (eg a new free school in South Somerset).

1.22 The October 2019 School Census recorded 56 pupils on roll at a Pupil Referral Unit (PRU). It should be noted that the PRU roll is particularly subject to fluctuation throughout the year and that the figure quoted relates to those pupils who are registered only at a PRU. In addition to solely registered pupils, many of the pupils that PRUs educate remain on a school roll so are counted at their mainstream establishment instead.

Migration 1.23 Pupil migration is calculated from the net change of pupil numbers as a result of all pupils moving on and off a school roll outside of the principle scheduled transfer points. It is not a simple reflection of a single factor (eg the local housing market) but it is potentially a combination of multiple influences (see appendix A for a more detailed explanation).

1.24 The County forecasts include an allowance for net pupil migration. At primary level the forecast of migration averages +121 per year (compared with an average of the last 5 years of +125). At secondary level (years 7 to 11) the historical level of net migration is noticeably lower than at primary level with a net loss recorded in most years. The average forecast secondary level migration is -129 per year which is consistent with the last 5 years where the average loss has been 119. The forecast rate of migration is calculated to be broadly consistent with the average of recent years but it should be remembered that any individual year can see migration that is substantially above or below the average.

1.25 Gains from migration usually have only a small effect on the overall school age population of the County. Changes in the birth rate are a much larger influence on the overall trend. (Migration can, of course, have a more noticeable impact at a local

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level). Table 3 compares the actual change in pupil numbers from 2018 to 2019 in Somerset: it shows that whilst the total primary aged roll has fallen by 134 most of this can be attributed to the change in birth rate with the net loss from migration adding slightly to that loss. If migration had been at or around the average of recent years (+125) it would have largely balanced out the loss from the change in birth rate which occurred this year. At secondary level the net loss from migration has reduced the size of the increase. The overall increase resulting from the birth rate was +600, but this has been reduced by 116 as a result of migration.

.

Table 3: Change in Pupil numbers - 2018 to 2019 Years R to 6 Years 7 to 11 Net Migration -16 -116 Historical Birth Rate Change -118 +600 Total net change -134 +484 Data is based on number on roll in the October School Census

SCHOOL FORECAST DATA: PRIMARY SCHOOLS

2.1 With the overall County fall in primary pupil numbers now emerging towards the end of the forecast period, it is becoming clearer how this will impact on the individual planning areas and individual schools. There are some quite marked decreases forecast but equally some of the forecast decreases are often quite small and often within forecasting margin of error over a 5-year period. Although for many areas it would require a major change of events or a revision to the source data to bring a substantial change of trend. Also, it should be remembered that there are still some forecast increases although they tend to be quite small (especially compared to some of the increases that have been seen in recent years).

2.2 The local authority is now entering a new phase of planning school places where there will be the challenge of managing an overall decline in primary number on roll. This will mean that some rural schools will see a fall in roll as the falling birth rate brings smaller year groups. Also, some schools in town areas may see a decline in roll especially those schools that are less preferred. At the same time as many schools will have spare capacity, there is still a need to ensure that there are adequate places to serve the obvious local need created by some of the new urban extensions that are planned.

2.3 The areas with the more substantial forecast changes in numbers overall are examined in further detail below. (Unless otherwise stated all figures quoted below are calculated using the October 2019 actual as the base figure with forecast increases/decreases in total roll to the corresponding census point in October 2020, 2023 etc. The totals quoted for each planning area include all the rural and town schools in the area).

Bridgwater 2.4 The Bridgwater area has seen the largest increases in the number of primary school pupils in Somerset. With 2019 expected to be the current peak of number on roll, it can now be seen that from 2009 top 2019 there has been an increase of 1528 pupils in this area, a 33.1% increase. The forecasts show that the trend for this area is now a downward one with 393 fewer pupils forecast by 2024. From 2021 the number of

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pupils in the reception year for the area is forecast to fall below 800 – which compares to an average of 870 for the last 5 years. These year groups will be lower than the number leaving in year 6, resulting in total pupil numbers falling slightly each year.

A key consideration that has a potential impact on this area is the construction of the Hinkley Point C (HPC) power station. It will see large numbers of workers involved with the project, some of whom will relocate with their families. In educational terms this is an area with many communities and schools and there is no expectation that any one community or school will see a major impact on pupil numbers. The forecasts do not make any specific adjustment for families linked to HPC although there is a relatively high level of net migration forecast for this area and there remains the possibility of future spikes in migration as construction progresses. The level of migration will be reviewed as part of the forecast calculations each year.

Burnham-on-Sea 2.5 Forecasts for this area show a slight increase by 2021 and then a decline to give a total by 2024, which is 108 fewer than the 2019 roll. The forecast totals are noticeably lower than the 2018 based forecast. This arises from a lower 2019 base number roll for this area than had been forecast (which in itself stems largely from an unexpected loss of pupils from migration) and smaller year groups than were anticipated in 2018 forecast to enter at reception year (based on the latest health authority data). Looked at together, these two data inputs support each other and indicate that there has been a marked loss of school age and pe-school population children from this area over the last year. A large forecast gain from net migration is included in the data contributing 94 pupils to the forecast total by 2023. This is in part in anticipation that the Brue Farm development will commence during the forecast period.

Given the change from the 2018 forecast and taken together with all the relevant data that contributes to the forecast data, it is considered appropriate to take the rare step of issuing a NOTE OF CAUTION for this area to note the following areas of uncertainty: [a] Will there be any change in the trend of pre-school children based on future health authority records for this area? [b] Is there any deviation from the expected schedule of completion of new housing that would have an impact on the number on roll? [c] Will the yield of pupils from the new development meet expectations in terms of the number of new pupils? This is linked to attractiveness of the area for families in terms of employment opportunities etc. [d] The level of options out to other areas. Traditionally this area sees a substantial number of options to schools in other areas (over and above any options out to the independent sector, EHE etc). This may increase or decrease given the generally declining birth rate across the wider area.

2.6 Stoke-sub-Hamdon Number on roll in this area is at its peak in the period 2018 to 2020 at around 1530 pupils. Thereafter there is a forecast decline in primary aged roll so that by 2024 there are expected to be 120 fewer pupils than in 2019. Most schools are forecast to see some decline as there are generally smaller year groups now entering at reception than are leaving in year 6. There are only modest gains from migration forecast which helps to offset some of the loss that is driven by the fall off in the number of births. A key variable in this area can be the movement of service

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families linked to RNAS Yeovilton which can contribute to a high number of pupils joining or leaving Ilchester Primary School in particular.

Street 2.7 There is a forecast fall of 215 pupils by 2024 in this area – a fall of 14.7%. This is a result of the lower birth rate of recent years meaning that the forecast number of reception pupils from 2020 is well below 200 each year. This contrasts with the much higher number of pupils that are due to leave year 6 over the next few years. There is only modest housing development in this area which means that there are no substantial gains from migration forecast.

Taunton 2.8 In terms of pupil numbers Taunton is the largest planning area in Somerset with a primary aged roll of 6651 at the October 2019 Census. There has been an increase of 1214 pupils from 2008 to 2019, a 22.3% increase. The forecasts show that a further modest increase is likely with pupil numbers forecast to peak in 2021 only 41 higher than the 2019 roll. The forecasts show a very slight decrease by 2024 although the increases and decreases are so small as to be within the forecasting margin of error. The substantial increases which have been seen across the area in recent years are not likely to be repeated within the current forecast period.

The slowing of the increase in number on roll can be attributed to a fall-off in the birth rate in recent years. However, the forecast of migration remains high in line with expectation of substantial housing developments despite a lower than forecast migration gain in 2018-2019. Across the Taunton area there is a forecast net gain from migration of 224 pupils by 2023. The first phases of the urban extension on the western side of Taunton (Comeytrowe and Staplegrove) are now expected to come forward within the forecast period which is reflected in the forecast data for some of the local schools from 2022, although the majority of the impact would be beyond the range of the current forecasts. Any re-phasing of developments would have impact on forecast data.

The most noteworthy increases are at Norton Fitzwarren School which is forecast to increase by 120 pupils by 2024 and at Nerrols School which opened in September 2019 with a roll of 41 and is forecast to increase to 203 pupils on roll by 2024.

Wellington 2.9 There were increases in pupil numbers in this area up to 2016. Since then they have stabilised and are forecast to show an increase of 23 pupils by 2022 with a very slight decline thereafter. The 2019 number on roll is 27 fewer than forecast mainly due to a loss of pupils from net migration when a small gain had been forecast. As a result of the lower base number on roll, the current forecast numbers are slightly lower than the 2018 forecasts. The forecasts include a continued gain from migration to reflect the ongoing housing development in Wellington and Rockwell Green. However, this forecast gain is not as high as previously reflecting that rather than seeing any substantial gains from net migration, this area has seen a loss in each of the last three years.

Wiveliscombe 2.10 The peak roll for the primary schools in this area occurred in 2016 with a total roll of 1449 pupils. Since when there has been a fall in roll of 152 – a fall of 10.5%. The

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forecasts for this area show a further fall throughout the forecast period which is calculated at 238 pupils by 2023 – an 18.3% decrease. As with many rural areas there is now a general decline in numbers forecast resulting from recent falls in the birth rate.

This area has few major new housing developments that are coming forward and so has only modest forecast gains from migration. The 2023 forecast includes 44 pupils that are a net gain from migration but this is well below what would be required to maintain even the current number on roll. A factor unique to this area is that the bulge in primary age pupil numbers at Cotford St Luke has now passed its peak and is entering the secondary phase. This bulge in numbers arose when many families moved into the new houses following development of the village in the early 2000s.

Yeovil 2.11 For the period 2009 to 2019 there has been an increase of 567 primary school pupils in this area, a 15.4% increase. 2020 is the forecast peak in Yeovil with a growth of 32 pupils expected. From 2021 there is an annual fall in the number of pupils forecast which means that by 2024 the predicted roll is 187 fewer than in 2019. The falling birth rate is offset in part by forecast migration which contributes 70 pupils to the total roll by 2023.

The most noteworthy increases are forecast to take place at Kingfisher and Primrose Lane primary schools. These schools opened in September 2016 and are both forecast to grow incrementally as they admit a new year group at reception each year, together with gains of pupils in other year groups. With numbers in Yeovil not forecast to grow overall beyond 2020 these schools are expected to see growth from the communities they have been built to serve at a time when other schools in the planning area are forecast to see a fall in pupil numbers.

Changing rolls in Primary Schools 2.12 When there is a decline in number on roll forecast across an area this is usually a marginal change year on year, with some schools not forecast to see any noticeable change. Schools will need to be conscious of the medium to longer term cumulative effect of a declining roll given that school budget calculations are directly linked to pupil numbers. Table 4 shows how the forecast fall in pupil numbers is expected to impact on school rolls in the primary sector. The forecast data for individual schools will never have 100% accuracy but Table 4 gives an indication of scale of the changes that are forecast up to 2024.

Table 4: Change in Primary School Roll

Number of Primary Schools with fewer Average fall in roll pupils 2018 to 2019 (A) 115 -7.3 2019 to 2020 (F) 118 -5.3 2019 to 2024 (F) 158 -20.0 [a] Based on 219 primary schools in Somerset at October 2019 (including primary aged pupils in all through schools but not middle schools) [b] (A) = Actual, (F) = Forecast

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Small Primary Schools: 2.13 As an authority which serves a largely rural area, Somerset traditionally has a much higher proportion of small schools when compared to the England average. The October 2019 School Census recorded 32 primary schools with a roll of 60 or fewer pupils. As might be expected, with rolls in the primary sector forecast to fall, the number of small schools is forecast to increase slightly, with 39 schools below this mark by 2024. This forecast of the number of small schools should be seen an indication of the general change in primary age numbers that is forecast to take place. For any small school a relatively slight change in absolute pupil numbers, either an increase or a decrease, can be quite marked in terms of the impact on the total roll and could put the school above or below this particular small school measure. (All forecasts have a margin of error which increases the further ahead that the data extends).

3. SCHOOL FORECAST DATA: SECONDARY AND MIDDLE SCHOOLS

3.1 The forecast data has for some years indicated that the most noticeable growth in pupil numbers has been occurring in the Bridgwater, Taunton and Yeovil planning areas, with the more rural planning areas tending to see less growth. On an area basis there should be a fair degree of confidence in the 11-year forecasts as many of the pupils are already in the primary school age range.

3.2 The growth in pupil numbers that was first apparent in the primary school sector is now entering the secondary sector in Bridgwater, Taunton and Yeovil. As well as being forecast to see the most substantial growth in secondary school rolls, these are areas where there is more opportunity to exercise parental preference at the entry to secondary school because there are several schools in each town. For this reason, the individual school level forecasts are only calculated for 5 years since it is considered that there are too many uncertainties to produce a forecast beyond that with an acceptable level of confidence. (As well as changes in parental preference, there can be changes in admission arrangements, or a managed response to the increase in numbers any of which provides a scenario that is beyond the scope of the forecasts). Even within the 5-year school forecasts there is scope for variation from the forecasts eg if a lot of pupils are granted admission on appeal.

Bridgwater 3.3 The roll of the four Bridgwater secondary schools# has been increasing since 2014. This has been the result of generally larger year groups entering the secondary system, with 2019 being the first year to see over 800 year 7 pupils. This high level of admissions is forecast to continue with 6 of the next 7 years forecast to have over 800 year 7 pupils. The forecast peak of secondary school admissions occurs in 2022 when the forecast year 7 cohort is 850. The forecasts show a slight decline in secondary admission from 2027.

# All figures and comments relating to the Bridgwater area are exclusive of Brymore School which by its nature attracts pupils from a wider geography than the local planning area. The data quoted for secondary schools includes pupils in years 7-11 in the ‘all-through’

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 17 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1

Bridgwater College Academy but not pupils in years 6 and below which are included in the figures and commentary relating to the primary phase.

3.4 The rising number of pupils entering the secondary system each year has seen the total roll rise over the last 5 years from 3343 in 2013 to 3658 in 2018, an increase of 315 pupils. Over the next 5 years, with larger year groups continuing to enter at year 7, the secondary total roll is forecast to increase by a further 451 to reach 4109 in 2024. Numbers are forecast to peak between 2023 and 2026 before beginning a decline in 2027 which lasts through to the end of the forecast period in 2030. Chart D shows that, even though the peak of admissions occurs in 2022, the total roll keeps on increasing as the number of pupils forecast at year 7 is still more than the number leaving in year 11.

3.5 The overall increase in pupil numbers is reflected in the forecasts for individual schools within Bridgwater up to 2024. Whilst there is an increase forecast for all schools, the most substantial increases are shown for schools that have tended not to fill to their admission number and so have more unfilled places. This means that the largest increases are forecast at Robert Blake (+188 by 2023) and Bridgwater College Academy (+176 by 2023).

3.6 There is a general increase in year 7 pupils across the whole area with few signs of any large bulge year groups within an individual secondary school area. The Robert Blake School is likely to see most growth from within its own catchment, reflecting the number of pupils now in the primary phase locally following the recent expansion of south Bridgwater.

3.7 By the start of the academic year in September 2020 the number of secondary pupils in the Bridgwater area is forecast to increase by 91 as a result of the number of year 7 pupils exceeding those leaving in year 11. Numbers are forecast to reach 4123 by 2023 which is a forecast increase of 465 pupils over the next 4 years.

3.8 The changes in secondary number on roll in the Bridgwater area that are forecast to occur reflect the number of pupils now in the primary schools which are the result of past changes in the birth rate and recent migration. Any further gains from migration linked to current housing developments will have only a relatively minor impact and will not change the basic trend that is already in place.

Taunton 3.7 Chart E shows that there has been a steady increase in secondary aged pupil numbers in the Taunton area that began in 2013. Numbers have increased by 267 from 2013 to 2019 and are forecast to increase by a further 531 by 2025 although at that point the forecasts show that numbers will remain reasonably stable for the rest of the forecast period. The highest forecast roll is that calculated for 2029, although it is only 55 above the 2025 forecast. Such a difference is within the range of the forecast margin of error over the intervening period, so the exact point of the peak in the Taunton area could be revised in future forecasts. (All figures and analysis in this section of the commentary are exclusive of the small specialist 6th form provision at Heathfield).

3.8 The year 7 roll in Taunton has been increasing since 2014 and is forecast to see further substantial increases before beginning to tail off towards the end of the forecast period. The year 7 roll for 2020 is forecast at 916 which is the first time that

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 18 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1

there will have over 900 pupils in that year group and is 38 pupils more than in 2019. A clear indication of the increase in numbers in Taunton compared to the recent past, is that for 10 out of the 11 years of the forecast period the number of year 7 admissions is forecast to be above 900 and averages 942, whereas for 11 years up to 2019 the year 7 cohort averaged 807.

3.9 At individual school level from 2019 to 2024 there are forecast increases in the year 7 roll at the Taunton Academy and Bishop Fox’s School in particular. With other schools already full to their capacity, Taunton Academy which has had spare places within its admission number each year, is forecast to take more pupils as the roll rises across Taunton. For Bishop Fox’s School, the forecasts reflect the planned expansion of the school which will see an increase in number of places available for the year 7 admission year groups from 2020. By 2024 Bishop Fox’s School is forecast to have 168 more pupils than in 2019 and Taunton Academy 209 more.

3.9 By September 2020, the total number of secondary pupils in the Taunton area is forecast to increase by 122. Over the 6 years to 2025 the number of secondary aged pupils in Taunton is forecast to increase by 531 (an average increase of 88 pupils each year). As with Bridgwater, the key driver of the forecast trend in secondary school pupil numbers in Taunton are the past fluctuation in the birth rate reflected by the number of pupils now in the primary sector. The new housing developments that are expected to come forward in the Taunton area may slightly tweak the number of pupils but it wouldn’t be expected to change the underlying trend.

Yeovil 3.10 The geography of the Yeovil area means that it is a slightly smaller area than Bridgwater or Taunton and by comparison has a smaller rural catchment area. This means that there are fewer pupils in secondary schools than in to the other two areas, with provision spread across three secondary schools. The number of pupils in a year group in the Yeovil schools is typically around 600 which compares to around 800 in Bridgwater and over 900 in Taunton.

3.11 Following a period of general decline, the secondary school roll in Yeovil recorded an increase in 2018 which is forecast to continue until 2026. At this point there are forecast to be 2877 pupils, an increase of 217 compared to the 2019 roll. Whilst the calculated peak occurs in 2026, there is little substantial variation in the total roll forecast from 2024 through to 2028 with the forecast number remaining between 2810 and 2880 in all years. Numbers are forecast to begin to decline towards the end of the forecast period. However, it should be remembered that this is at the extreme range of the forecasts and there is scope for some minor revision of the forecast data in the intervening years. The 2019 forecasts are generally slightly lower than the 2018 version, following a reduced level of options at Year 7 in 2019 and a greater loss of pupils from migration than had been forecast. Events such as these give a lower base roll for calculation of the forecasts and act to drag down these input measures in the forecast calculations.

3.12 The trend in actual and forecast numbers for Yeovil is shown in Chart F. There is a forecast increase of 340 pupils in Yeovil from the lowest recorded roll in 2017 to the forecast peak in 2026. Even though the growth in numbers needs to be accommodated in just three schools, this is a 13.4% increase which is considerably smaller in number and percentage terms than the forecast increase in the other two major centres: Bridgwater +846 pupils between 2013 and 2025 (+25.8%) and Taunton +798 pupils between 2013 and 2025 (+20.4%).

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 19 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1

Chart D: Bridgwater Secondary Number on Roll - Actual (A) & Forecast (F)

1200 4800 Peak of Total Roll Peak Yr 7 roll 4400

1000 4000 Year 7 Roll 7 Year Yr 7-11Roll Yr

3600

800 3200

2800

600 2400

2000

400 1600 Please note: this chart displays two sets of data. The year 7 roll is plotted as a line against the left-hand vertical axis, whereas the right- 1200 hand axis plots the total roll (yrs 7-11) as a series of bars. Therefore there is no meaning to the points at which the line and bars intersect 200 800

400

0 0 AAAAAAAAAAFFFFFFFFFFFF 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 20 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1

Chart E: Taunton Secondary Number on Roll - Actual (A) & Forecast (F) 1400 5500 Peak Yr7-11 Total Roll

Year 7 Roll Roll7 Year 1200 Peak Yr 7 roll 4500 Year 7-11Roll Year

1000 3500

800

2500

600

1500 Please note: this chart displays two sets of data. The year 7 roll is plotted 400 as a line against the left-hand vertical axis, whereas the right-hand axis plots the total roll (yrs 7-11) as a series of bars. Therefore there is no meaning to the points at which the line and bars intersect one another. 500 200

0 -500 AAAAAAAAAAAFFFFFFFFFFF 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 21 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1

Chart F: Yeovil Secondary Number on Roll - Actual (A) & Forecast (F)

1000 3500 Peak Yr 7-11 Total Roll

900 3000

Year 7 Roll 7 Year Peak Yr7 Roll 800 Year 7-11Roll Year

2500 700

600 2000

500

1500 400

300 Please note: this chart displays two sets of data. The year 7 roll is plotted as a line against the left-hand vertical axis, whereas the right- 1000 hand axis plots the total roll (yrs 7-11) as a series of bars. Therefore 200

500 100

0 0 AAAAAAAAAAAFFFFFFFFFFF 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 22 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1

3.13 The key influence on pupil numbers is the historical changes in the birth rate which is reflected by the size of the year groups feeding through from the primary sector. Chart F shows that there is a general rise in the number of year 7 pupils forecast for the next few years, although there is not an increase in every year in much the same way as there have been up and downs in the actual number of year 7 pupils. Over the 7 years from 2020, the number of forecast year 7 pupils is 576, which compares to the 7 years up to 2019 where the average was 526. The largest year 7 groups that are forecast are in 2024 and 2026 which both have over 590 pupils.

3.14 For 2020/21 academic year the total number of secondary pupils in the Yeovil area is forecast to increase by 44. Even though the number of year 7 pupils is lower than in 2019, it will still bring an increased roll as it exceeds the number of pupils leaving from year 11.

3.15 Bucklers Mead and Westfield Schools are forecast to see increases in pupil numbers in the period up to 2024, as relatively small year groups in years 10 and 11 leave each school to be replaced by much larger year groups at year 7. Westfield is forecast to increase by 110 pupils and Bucklers Mead by 94. By contrast Preston School is forecast to see a slight drop in roll until 2022 with a recovery in pupil numbers in 2023 and 2024. For the individual schools, a key driver of number on roll is the relative level of parental preference. Each of the three secondary schools is established to have broadly the same number of places available and at a level where the combined admission number gives scope to exercise parental preference. In addition, with most of the children resident in the urban area, many have a realistic choice of school.

3.16 At secondary level in Yeovil there are no substantial forecast net gains from migration. Even though there are some major housing developments that are planned on the edge of Yeovil, these are expected to have only a limited impact on any of the individual schools and they are not expected to fundamentally change the immediate trends that are determined by the birth rate changes. As with all schools, future forecast data will be updated each year to take account of the latest information available in terms of number on roll etc at each school.

Rural Area Secondary Schools 3.17 Many secondary schools serving the more rural parts of the County are not forecast to see substantial changes in number on roll during the forecast period. Whilst some may see a modest increase, others are forecast to see a fall in roll. The following are the most noteworthy changes forecast increases: • Chard Holyrood – the total roll is forecast to increase by 125 pupils by 2024. Of this increase, 90 additional pupils come in the mainstream roll as larger year groups enter the secondary school at year 7. The 6th form has a roll of 134 at October 2019 which is noticeably lower than in previous years as the 2019 staying on rate fell at this school. However, the 6th form pupil numbers are forecast to increase slightly, in part because larger year groups will soon be reaching year 11 and in expectation of a recovery in the staying on rate. However, as with any 6th from roll there is more scope for deviation from the forecast roll if year 11 leavers choose other options and the lower staying on rate could yet become the norm. • Frome College – pupil numbers have fallen in recent years from 1218 in 2014 to 1085 in 2017 since when there has been a recovery to 1162 in 2019.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 23 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1

Further increases in roll are now forecast with numbers expected to reach 1396 by 2024 (an increase of 234 from 2019) and a further increase to 1419 by 2028.

• A contributory factor in the recent decline in numbers has been the opt out of pupils at year 7 from the middle schools – especially to Writhlington School in Bath & North East Somerset. The middle school forecasts continue to reflect the current trend in parental preference.

• The 2019 based forecasts for Frome College includes a boost from the re-configuration of provision at Avanti Park School (formerly Steiner Academy). With Avanti Park ceasing to provide places beyond Year 8, the forecasts for Frome College include pupils now joining from there as well as the two middle schools. This accounts for the uplift in forecast roll for Frome College when compared to the 2018 forecasts.

As with any such forecasting assumption, it remains to be seen the extent to which the pick-up of pupils from Avanti Park translates into reality or whether parents seek to find places elsewhere. Similarly, any fundamental increase or decrease in the level of opt outs at year 7 to B&NES would have an impact on future numbers at Frome College.

School 6th Forms 3.18 There are 10 secondary schools in Somerset with 6th form pupils (most post-16 provision being found in FE colleges). At the October 2019 Census the largest school 6th form rolls are found at The Kings of Wessex School (303 students) and at Frome College (301 students); by comparison the smallest school 6th form roll in Somerset is at Wadham School with 35 students.

3.19 Individual 6th form rolls have been subject to some volatility in the last few years with some schools seeing a marked drop and other a noticeable increase in number of students. This is more than can be attributed to the changing number of students reaching the end of year 11. • The King Alfred School saw its 6th form fall to 95 in 2017 but there has been a noticeable turn around with the roll standing at 156 in 2019, and • The West Somerset College which has previously seen a large fall in 6th form roll from over 400 in 2012 to 116 in 2018, saw an increase in 2019 to have 157 students. • By contrast the Holyrood School 6th form has fallen from 197 in 2017 to 134 in 2019, and •.Huish Episcopi has fallen from 232 students in 2017 to 165 in 2019; • whilst over a slightly longer period The Blue School has fallen from 334 in 2015 to 195 in 2019; and • Sexey’s School has seen its 6th form fall from 163 in 2016 to 98 in 2019. The forecasts of individual school 6th from rolls attempt to reflect the likely number of students based on the recent rate of retention from year 11. As the above examples show, there has been recent volatility in the number of 6th form students. It must be considered that there is a larger margin for error in the 6th form element of the forecasts, not only over the full 11 years of a secondary school forecast but also in the short and medium term.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 24 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1

4. FURTHER INFORMATION

Background Information 4.1 Further detail about the calculation of the forecast data appears in Appendix A and a guide to the use of the forecast data in Appendix B. Full supporting papers and source data are available on request. In addition, the following were used in the writing of this commentary, and may provide further related information of interest:

*1 National Pupil Projections – Future Trends in Pupil Numbers: July 2018 (July 2019 update). https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-pupil-projections-july-2018

*2 NOMIS: Live births in England and Wales https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/datasets/lebirthrates

School Organisation Plan: 4.2 The 2019 forecasts will feature in the annual Somerset School Organisation Plan which will be updated to provide the latest data on population forecasts alongside school net capacities.

Revision of Data: 4.3 The forecasts of pupil numbers are produced annually to reflect the latest data about each school. Whilst there are no plans to make any in year revisions to the forecast data, in exceptional circumstances, if there were to be major changes to the base data, a revision would be considered in advance of the scheduled update. Forecasts based on data obtained from the October 2020 School Census are expected to be released in spring term 2021. Any enquiries or feedback can be given at any time using the contact information below.

TONY VERRIER Information Officer Somerset County Council

Tel: 01823 355961 email: [email protected] team e-mail [email protected]

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 25 Somerset County Council

County Hall, Taunton

Somerset, TA1 4DY

SOMERSET SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST 2019

PART 2: FORECAST DATA

March 2020 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 2 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

C O N T E N T S

Page(s)

Explanatory Notes ...... 4

County Summary ...... 5

Area Forecasts

Ansford ...... 6

Bridgwater ...... 9

Burnham-on-Sea ...... 19

Chard ...... 23

Cheddar/Blackford ...... 27

Crewkerne/Ilminster ...... 33

Frome ...... 38

Glastonbury ...... 45

Huish Episcopi ...... 48

North Mendip ...... 53

Shepton Mallet ...... 55

Stoke-sub-Hamdon ...... 59

Street ...... 63

Taunton ...... 66

Wellington ...... 76

Wells ...... 80

West Somerset ...... 85

Wincanton ...... 91

Wiveliscombe ...... 95

Yeovil ...... 99

Special Educational Needs ...... 106

Appendix A ...... 107

Appendix B ...... 112

Index of Forecasts ...... 114

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 3 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Explanatory Notes

1. The forecast data has been calculated by the Somerset County Council, Business Intelligence - Children’s team using the actual number on roll from the October 2019 School Census which appears as the 2019 Baseline data. Data for the number of pre-school children, which is used in the calculation of the forecasts, are obtained from health authority records provided by Somerset Health Authority.

2. The forecast data is shown for 5 years for each primary school, with forecasts for middle and secondary school areas extending up to 11 years. The forecast data reflecting the anticipated roll at the start of subsequent years: therefore, the forecast data shown for 2020 relates to academic year 2020/21.

3. Primary school forecasts relate to pupils in the reception year and above which means that children on the roll of nursery classes run by primary schools are NOT included in the total roll for each school. Where such classes are established it should not be inferred that the numbers shown in the ‘Pre-school’ columns will be the number of children enrolled in the nursery.

4. Due to rounding in the calculations the total roll shown for each school may not be the sum of the individual age groups.

5. Primary school forecasts are shown in areas consistent with the middle and secondary school planning areas that appear in the Schools Organisation Plan. A summary forecasts of all the primary school forecasts is shown at the start of each area to give an indication of overall trend in that area. In addition to showing forecasts for individual primary schools, where there are 'town areas' (areas in which there is an effective choice of primary or secondary schools) a summary table of the total roll for all primary/secondary schools within the town area is shown.

6. Where ‘all-through’ schools have been established (eg making provision from 4 to 16), these have been split to into separate forecasts for the primary and secondary age ranges to facilitate the calculation of the number for school places required in each phase.

7. Shown beneath the forecast data is the 2020 Admission Number published for each school as part of statutory admission process. It does not necessarily follow that the admission number for subsequent years will be the same as that set for 2020.

8. The School Control is also shown as it was returned by schools in the October 2019 School Census (it will not reflect any change in school control since that date).

CA = Academy, CO = Community, FO = Foundation, VA = Voluntary Aided, VC = Voluntary Controlled.

March 2020

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COUNTY NUMBER ON ROLL FORECAST: Forecast Base Year: 2019

Mainstream School Roll Pre-School (by age at 31 August) Primary Aged School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL PUPILS Year 0 1 2 3 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 (Yrs R - 6) Baseline 2019 4845 5070 5330 5565 5739 5804 5768 5998 6060 5990 5895 41254 Forecast 2020 4960 5188 5425 5656 5809 5831 5778 6001 6060 6005 41140 Forecast 2021 5076 5282 5514 5725 5836 5841 5781 6001 6075 40774 Forecast 2022 5167 5368 5581 5752 5846 5845 5781 6016 40189 Forecast 2023 5252 5433 5608 5762 5849 5845 5795 39544 Forecast 2024 5127 5316 5459 5617 5765 5849 5859 38993

Secondary Aged School Pupils (by NCY) 6th Form Pupils TOTAL TOTAL MAIN- TOTAL TOTAL PUPILS STREAM PUPILS Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 6th Form (Years 7 - PUPILS (Yrs 7 -11) 13) (Years R-13) Baseline 2019 5524 5269 5188 5095 4915 25991 914 704 1618 27609 68863 Forecast 2020 5551 5510 5240 5169 5034 26504 901 795 1696 28200 69340 Forecast 2021 5654 5536 5480 5221 5107 26999 923 784 1706 28705 69479 Forecast 2022 5720 5639 5507 5460 5159 27484 936 803 1739 29223 69413 Forecast 2023 5665 5705 5609 5487 5394 27860 946 814 1760 29619 69163 Forecast 2024 5457 5650 5674 5589 5420 27790 989 823 1811 29601 68594 Forecast 2025 5517 5443 5619 5654 5521 27753 994 860 1854 29607 Forecast 2026 5521 5502 5413 5599 5586 27621 1012 864 1876 29498 Forecast 2027 5442 5507 5473 5393 5532 27346 1024 880 1904 29251 Forecast 2028 5305 5428 5477 5453 5328 26991 1014 891 1905 28896 Forecast 2029 5164 5291 5398 5457 5387 26698 977 882 1859 28557 Forecast 2030 5052 5151 5263 5379 5391 26237 987 850 1837 28074

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 5 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 576 4250 ANSFORD ACADEMY Net Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 121 120 114 117 105 0 0 577 577 Forecast 2020 116 125 123 113 115 0 0 592 4 592 Forecast 2021 98 120 128 122 111 0 0 579 4 579 Forecast 2022 123 102 123 127 120 0 0 595 4 595 Forecast 2023 115 127 105 122 125 0 0 594 4 594 Forecast 2024 111 119 130 104 120 0 0 584 4 584 Forecast 2025 99 113 120 129 102 0 0 562 0 562 Forecast 2026 118 101 114 119 127 0 0 578 0 578 Forecast 2027 112 120 102 113 117 0 0 563 0 563 Forecast 2028 113 114 121 101 111 0 0 559 0 559 Forecast 2029 105 115 115 120 99 0 0 554 0 554 Forecast 2030 95 107 116 114 118 0 0 551 0 551

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 100.5

Average transfer from primary (%): 93.0

2020 Determined AN * 120

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 6 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: ANSFORD

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0 1 2 3 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 90 104 117 120 128 111 122 126 137 107 125 856 Forecast 2020 92 108 120 122 130 112 121 128 133 105 851 0 Forecast 2021 97 113 122 123 131 111 122 126 132 867 1 Forecast 2022 101 115 125 127 130 113 120 124 854 6 Forecast 2023 103 118 128 124 131 110 119 833 2 Forecast 2024 102 105 118 125 125 129 106 810 -6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.86 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.92 Catchment Adjustment 92.7% -8.5 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 84 2008 CASTLE CARY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0 1 2 3 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 15 25 27 20 27 31 22 35 32 25 38 210 Forecast 2020 17 27 29 22 29 32 23 37 31 25 199 7 Forecast 2021 19 29 31 24 30 33 24 38 32 212 9 Forecast 2022 21 31 33 26 31 35 25 38 219 10 Forecast 2023 23 33 34 27 33 35 26 211 9 Forecast 2024 28 25 35 35 29 34 35 221 9 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.92 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 108.73 Catchment Adjustment 90.6% -2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 33 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 132 2020 DITCHEAT PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0 1 2 3 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 11 11 12 12 15 11 12 15 12 7 11 83 Forecast 2020 11 12 12 12 15 11 11 15 11 7 82 -2 Forecast 2021 12 12 12 11 15 10 11 14 11 84 -3 Forecast 2022 12 12 12 11 14 10 10 14 83 -2 Forecast 2023 12 11 12 10 14 9 10 78 -3 Forecast 2024 11 12 10 11 10 13 9 76 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.36 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.71 Catchment Adjustment 200.0% 6 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 148 3047 EVERCREECH PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0 1 2 3 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 26 24 24 28 28 18 31 20 30 23 21 171 Forecast 2020 26 24 24 28 27 18 31 20 29 22 175 -3 Forecast 2021 26 24 24 28 27 18 31 19 28 175 -2 Forecast 2022 26 24 23 28 27 18 30 18 168 -3 Forecast 2023 26 24 23 27 27 17 29 173 -3 Forecast 2024 24 26 23 23 27 26 16 165 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.12 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 81.0% -6 per year 2020 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

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Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 202 2038 KEINTON MANDEVILLE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0 1 2 3 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 16 19 16 23 22 13 23 19 25 15 20 137 Forecast 2020 16 20 17 23 23 14 24 19 25 15 143 3 Forecast 2021 17 22 17 24 24 15 24 19 25 148 3 Forecast 2022 18 22 18 25 24 15 24 19 147 2 Forecast 2023 18 23 19 24 23 15 24 146 0 Forecast 2024 18 19 24 18 23 23 14 139 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.13 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.26 Catchment Adjustment 90.2% -2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 216 3076 LOVINGTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0 1 2 3 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 4 4 3 6 5 6 7 5 5 5 7 40 Forecast 2020 4 4 3 6 5 6 7 5 5 4 38 -1 Forecast 2021 4 4 3 6 5 6 7 5 4 36 -1 Forecast 2022 4 4 3 6 5 6 7 4 35 -1 Forecast 2023 4 4 3 6 5 6 6 34 -1 Forecast 2024 3 4 4 3 6 5 5 30 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.84 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 188.9% 2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 244 2040 NORTH CADBURY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0 1 2 3 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 6 7 14 9 10 12 8 9 13 15 9 76 Forecast 2020 6 7 14 9 10 12 7 9 12 15 74 -2 Forecast 2021 6 7 14 8 10 11 7 8 12 70 -3 Forecast 2022 6 7 14 8 9 11 6 8 63 -2 Forecast 2023 6 7 14 7 9 10 6 59 -2 Forecast 2024 6 6 6 13 7 8 10 56 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 95.89 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 102.9% 0 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 282 2059 QUEEN CAMEL, THE COUNTESS GYTHA PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0 1 2 3 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 12 14 21 22 21 20 19 23 20 17 19 139 Forecast 2020 12 14 21 22 21 19 18 23 20 17 140 -2 Forecast 2021 13 15 21 22 20 18 18 23 20 142 -2 Forecast 2022 14 15 22 23 20 18 18 23 139 2 Forecast 2023 14 16 23 23 20 18 18 132 2 Forecast 2024 12 13 16 22 23 20 17 123 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.50 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.90 Catchment Adjustment 73.4% -6 per year 2020 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 8 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: BRIDGWATER SECONDARY SUMMARY Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 801 749 731 670 707 0 0 3658 3658 Forecast 2020 801 801 751 730 666 0 0 3749 -3 3749 Forecast 2021 835 801 803 750 726 0 0 3915 -3 3915 Forecast 2022 850 835 803 802 746 0 0 4035 -3 4035 Forecast 2023 836 850 837 802 798 0 0 4123 -3 4123 Forecast 2024 787 836 852 836 798 0 0 4109 -3 4109 Forecast 2025 822 787 838 850 831 0 0 4127 -5 4127 Forecast 2026 834 822 789 836 845 0 0 4126 -5 4126 Forecast 2027 795 834 824 787 831 0 0 4071 -5 4071 Forecast 2028 751 795 836 822 782 0 0 3986 -5 3986 Forecast 2029 738 751 797 834 817 0 0 3937 -5 3937 Forecast 2030 754 738 753 795 829 0 0 3870 -5 3870

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 99.0

Average transfer from primary (%): 93.25

Notes: The above data represents the combined roll of the following schools: Robert Blake, Chilton Trinity, Haygrove and the secondary age groups of the Bridgwater College Academy.

Secondary Forecast: 502 4300 BRIDGWATER, ROBERT BLAKE

Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7 -11) Baseline 2019 208 173 165 163 146 0 0 855 855 Forecast 2020 200 208 171 165 161 0 0 905 -4 905 Forecast 2021 209 200 206 171 163 0 0 949 -4 949 Forecast 2022 217 209 198 206 169 0 0 999 -4 999 Forecast 2023 217 217 207 198 204 0 0 1043 -4 1043 Forecast 2024 197 217 215 207 196 0 0 1032 -4 1032

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 25.30 Secondary Migration: 99.0

2020 Determined AN * 194

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): FO Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 9 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 504 4308 BRIDGWATER, CHILTON TRINITY

Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7 -11) Baseline 2019 190 198 192 160 200 0 0 940 940 Forecast 2020 196 188 198 191 160 0 0 933 -3 933 Forecast 2021 213 194 188 197 191 0 0 983 -3 983 Forecast 2022 212 211 194 187 197 0 0 1001 -3 1001 Forecast 2023 209 210 211 193 187 0 0 1011 -3 1011 Forecast 2024 197 207 210 210 193 0 0 1017 -3 1017

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 25.00 Secondary Migration: 99.3

2020 Determined AN * 200

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 506 4309 BRIDGWATER, HAYGROVE

Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7 -11) Baseline 2019 215 213 211 215 211 0 0 1065 1065 Forecast 2020 216 215 215 211 213 0 0 1070 0 1070 Forecast 2021 217 216 217 215 209 0 0 1074 0 1074 Forecast 2022 225 217 218 217 213 0 0 1090 0 1090 Forecast 2023 217 225 219 218 215 0 0 1095 0 1095 Forecast 2024 216 217 227 219 216 0 0 1096 0 1096

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 26.60 Secondary Migration: 100.0

2020 Determined AN * 214

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 501S 4001 BRIDGWATER COLLEGE ACADEMY (Years 7-11)

Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7 -11) Baseline 2019 188 165 163 132 150 0 0 798 798 Forecast 2020 188 190 167 163 132 0 0 840 4 840 Forecast 2021 196 190 192 167 163 0 0 908 4 908 Forecast 2022 195 198 192 192 167 0 0 945 4 945 Forecast 2023 192 197 200 192 192 0 0 974 4 974 Forecast 2024 177 194 199 200 192 0 0 963 4 963

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 23.10 Secondary Migration: 101.0

2020 Determined AN * 175

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes: This is an 'all through' school. The above data relates to the secondary age groups only. Data for the primary age groups appears in a separate table.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 10 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Secondary School (11-18) Catchment Analysis Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 598 4003 BRYMORE Net Pupils by NCY Total (Yrs 7- Migration Total (Yrs 7- Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 13) (Yrs 7-11) 11) Baseline 2019 57 72 70 61 56 0 0 316 316 Forecast 2020 65 59 74 72 61 0 0 331 6 331 Forecast 2021 68 67 61 76 72 0 0 344 6 344 Forecast 2022 69 70 69 63 76 0 0 348 6 348 Forecast 2023 68 71 72 71 63 0 0 346 6 346 Forecast 2024 64 70 73 74 71 0 0 353 6 353 Forecast 2025 67 66 71 75 73 0 0 353 4 353 Forecast 2026 68 69 67 73 74 0 0 351 4 351 Forecast 2027 65 70 70 69 72 0 0 346 4 346 Forecast 2028 61 67 71 72 68 0 0 339 4 339 Forecast 2029 60 63 68 73 71 0 0 335 4 335 Forecast 2030 61 62 64 70 72 0 0 330 4 330

16+ Forecast 0.0% 17+ Forecast 0.0%

Secondary Migration: 101.2

Average transfer from primary (%): 7.6 (based on trend of Bridgwater area year 6 leavers)

2020 Determined AN * 70 (30 boarding, 40 out-boarders, 10 for 6th form)

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 11 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: BRIDGWATER

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 742 737 763 826 876 873 837 898 910 889 859 6142 Forecast 2020 755 749 775 837 882 876 840 896 904 895 6130 21 Forecast 2021 765 758 787 841 880 878 839 891 911 6027 17 Forecast 2022 776 774 796 843 888 876 838 897 5912 38 Forecast 2023 791 783 795 848 887 874 844 5822 31 Forecast 2024 743 801 784 803 849 888 881 5749 28 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.32 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.58 Catchment Adjustment 95.2% -38.5 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 81 3154 CANNINGTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 20 18 23 24 25 27 20 32 25 30 29 188 Forecast 2020 21 18 24 25 26 27 21 32 25 31 187 4 Forecast 2021 21 19 25 26 25 28 21 32 26 183 3 Forecast 2022 22 20 26 26 26 28 21 33 180 4 Forecast 2023 23 21 26 27 26 28 21 172 3 Forecast 2024 21 24 21 27 27 26 29 175 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.69 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.81 Catchment Adjustment 109.0% 2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 146 5203 ENMORE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 17 18 17 19 19 21 22 22 19 19 22 144 Forecast 2020 18 18 18 19 19 21 22 22 19 19 141 0 Forecast 2021 18 19 18 19 19 21 22 22 19 140 0 Forecast 2022 19 19 18 19 19 20 22 22 139 -1 Forecast 2023 19 19 18 19 19 20 22 136 0 Forecast 2024 19 19 19 18 19 19 20 133 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.83 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.21 Catchment Adjustment 788.9% 16 per year 2020 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 210 2331 KINGSMOOR PRIMARY, BAWDRIP Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 14 18 23 22 26 25 26 23 25 25 26 176 Forecast 2020 14 18 23 23 26 25 26 23 24 25 172 0 Forecast 2021 14 18 24 23 26 25 26 22 24 170 0 Forecast 2022 14 19 24 23 26 25 25 22 164 0 Forecast 2023 15 19 24 22 26 24 25 155 -1 Forecast 2024 14 16 19 24 22 25 24 144 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.30 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.25 Catchment Adjustment 308.0% 13 per year 2020 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 12 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 243 3158 NETHER STOWEY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 10 16 16 17 19 28 21 30 25 28 24 175 Forecast 2020 10 17 17 17 20 28 21 30 25 28 169 1 Forecast 2021 11 18 17 18 20 28 21 29 25 158 0 Forecast 2022 12 19 19 19 21 28 21 29 156 5 Forecast 2023 13 21 20 20 21 28 21 144 5 Forecast 2024 14 15 22 21 21 21 28 142 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.07 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.86 Catchment Adjustment 131.1% 4 per year 2020 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 248 2175 NORTH NEWTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 13 11 8 12 16 13 13 15 16 14 16 103 Forecast 2020 13 11 8 12 16 13 13 15 16 14 99 0 Forecast 2021 13 11 8 12 16 13 13 15 16 93 0 Forecast 2022 13 11 8 12 16 13 13 15 88 0 Forecast 2023 13 11 8 12 16 13 13 86 0 Forecast 2024 10 13 11 8 12 16 13 83 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 275.0% 7 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 251 2335 NORTH PETHERTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 53 54 54 59 61 62 61 58 65 62 59 428 Forecast 2020 55 56 55 60 61 62 61 58 65 62 429 1 Forecast 2021 57 57 57 60 61 62 61 58 65 424 2 Forecast 2022 58 59 59 60 62 63 61 57 421 5 Forecast 2023 60 61 59 60 63 63 61 427 5 Forecast 2024 59 62 61 60 61 64 64 431 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.66 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.87 Catchment Adjustment 147.7% 18 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 268 2033 OTTERHAMPTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 9 8 5 11 8 12 10 7 10 9 10 66 Forecast 2020 9 8 5 11 8 12 10 7 10 9 67 0 Forecast 2021 9 8 5 11 8 12 10 6 10 62 -1 Forecast 2022 9 8 5 11 8 12 10 6 60 0 Forecast 2023 9 8 5 11 8 11 10 62 -1 Forecast 2024 8 9 8 5 11 8 11 60 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.26 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 137.5% 2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 13 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 280 2180 PURITON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 23 18 28 21 30 30 30 29 30 29 22 200 Forecast 2020 24 19 29 22 31 30 31 30 30 30 204 5 Forecast 2021 25 20 30 23 31 31 32 30 31 208 5 Forecast 2022 25 21 30 23 31 31 32 30 198 1 Forecast 2023 26 21 30 23 31 31 32 194 1 Forecast 2024 23 26 21 30 23 31 32 186 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.05 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.88 Catchment Adjustment 126.8% 5 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 309 3159 SPAXTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 12 7 6 10 9 12 13 13 8 9 10 74 Forecast 2020 12 7 7 10 9 12 13 13 7 8 72 -2 Forecast 2021 12 8 7 10 9 12 13 12 6 69 -2 Forecast 2022 13 8 7 10 9 12 12 11 69 -2 Forecast 2023 13 8 7 10 9 11 11 69 -2 Forecast 2024 11 13 8 7 10 8 10 67 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.74 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.19 Catchment Adjustment 112.9% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 316 3356 STOGURSEY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 7 8 5 10 9 9 8 15 9 10 12 72 Forecast 2020 8 9 7 11 11 10 8 15 9 10 74 4 Forecast 2021 8 10 8 12 11 10 8 15 9 73 2 Forecast 2022 8 10 8 12 11 10 8 15 74 0 Forecast 2023 8 10 8 12 11 10 8 67 0 Forecast 2024 8 8 10 8 11 11 10 66 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.98 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 108.75 Catchment Adjustment 56.6% -6 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 403 2026 WEMBDON ST GEORGE'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 48 39 44 43 51 44 52 57 58 59 62 383 Forecast 2020 48 39 44 43 51 44 52 57 58 59 364 0 Forecast 2021 48 39 44 43 51 43 52 57 58 348 -1 Forecast 2022 50 41 46 44 52 43 53 57 336 7 Forecast 2023 52 43 47 45 52 44 53 336 7 Forecast 2024 46 54 44 49 45 53 44 335 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.01 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.36 Catchment Adjustment 81.7% -10 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 14 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 414 2185 WESTONZOYLAND PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 18 23 18 18 28 25 19 25 22 18 17 154 Forecast 2020 18 23 18 18 28 25 19 24 22 18 154 -1 Forecast 2021 18 23 18 18 28 25 18 24 22 153 -1 Forecast 2022 19 24 19 18 29 24 18 25 157 3 Forecast 2023 20 25 19 19 28 24 19 154 3 Forecast 2024 19 20 25 19 18 28 24 153 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.15 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.53 Catchment Adjustment 105.5% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 427 2013 WOOLAVINGTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 22 19 21 24 26 14 18 12 27 26 21 144 Forecast 2020 22 19 21 24 26 14 18 12 27 26 147 0 Forecast 2021 22 19 21 24 26 14 18 12 27 142 0 Forecast 2022 23 20 22 24 27 15 19 14 141 7 Forecast 2023 24 21 22 25 28 16 21 157 7 Forecast 2024 21 25 21 23 26 29 18 163 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.89 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.42 Catchment Adjustment 87.8% -3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

Town Area Summary: BRIDGWATER

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 476 480 495 536 549 551 524 560 571 551 529 3835 Forecast 2020 483 487 499 542 550 553 525 558 567 556 3851 9 Forecast 2021 489 489 505 542 549 554 524 557 573 3804 10 Forecast 2022 491 495 505 542 551 552 523 561 3729 9 Forecast 2023 496 495 502 543 549 551 527 3663 4 Forecast 2024 472 497 494 504 543 549 554 3613 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.09 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.04 Catchment Adjustment 85.0% -87.5 per year Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for the following schools: Bridgwater Academy (years R-6), Eastover, Westover Green, Hamp Infant, Hamp Junior, Northgate, SS John & Francis, St Josephs, St Mary's, Somerset Bridge and Willowdown

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 45 2012 BRIDGWATER WILLOWDOWN PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 31 26 28 30 30 30 30 29 26 30 27 202 Forecast 2020 33 28 30 32 30 31 31 29 27 31 211 6 Forecast 2021 35 30 32 33 31 31 31 30 29 217 7 Forecast 2022 37 32 33 34 32 31 32 32 226 8 Forecast 2023 39 33 34 35 32 32 34 239 8 Forecast 2024 38 41 34 35 36 33 34 251 8 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.08 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 106.49 Catchment Adjustment 66.9% -14 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 15 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 50 2152 BRIDGWATER EASTOVER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 56 57 57 59 60 60 56 60 60 60 58 414 Forecast 2020 57 58 57 60 60 61 57 61 59 60 418 3 Forecast 2021 58 58 58 60 61 62 58 60 59 418 3 Forecast 2022 58 59 58 61 62 63 57 60 420 3 Forecast 2023 58 59 57 61 62 62 57 416 -2 Forecast 2024 58 58 58 57 61 61 62 415 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.11 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.04 Catchment Adjustment 74.6% -20 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 54 2325 BRIDGWATER WESTOVER GREEN PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 43 42 53 53 60 59 44 60 57 62 58 400 Forecast 2020 43 42 53 53 59 58 43 59 56 62 390 -5 Forecast 2021 43 42 53 52 59 58 42 59 56 379 -2 Forecast 2022 43 42 52 52 59 57 42 59 363 -2 Forecast 2023 43 41 52 52 58 57 42 345 -2 Forecast 2024 37 42 41 52 51 58 57 338 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.19 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 64.3% -27 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 55 2157 BRIDGWATER HAMP INFANTS Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 66 69 63 75 79 76 85 240 Forecast 2020 66 69 63 75 78 76 229 -1 Forecast 2021 66 69 63 74 77 214 -2 Forecast 2022 66 69 62 74 205 -1 Forecast 2023 66 68 61 195 -2 Forecast 2024 61 65 68 194 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.01 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 66.9% -34 per year 2020 Determined AN * 90 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 56 2007 BRIDGWATER HAMP JUNIOR Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 85 86 90 73 334 Forecast 2020 83 84 84 90 341 -5 Forecast 2021 76 83 82 84 325 -2 Forecast 2022 77 75 81 82 315 -3 Forecast 2023 74 77 73 81 305 -2 Forecast 2024 61 73 76 73 283 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.01 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 99.46 Catchment Adjustment N/A 2020 Determined AN * 90 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 16 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 46 2025 BRIDGWATER NORTHGATE Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 29 30 30 30 29 29 28 22 30 19 23 180 Forecast 2020 29 30 30 30 29 29 28 22 30 22 190 3 Forecast 2021 29 30 30 30 29 30 29 23 33 204 6 Forecast 2022 29 30 30 30 30 31 30 24 205 4 Forecast 2023 29 30 30 31 31 32 31 214 4 Forecast 2024 30 29 30 31 32 32 33 217 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.44 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 5.1% 30 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes: As no unique catchment area has been set for this school the forecast of reception year pupils is based largely on the town area trend and may not fully reflect local demand for places.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 58 2003 BRIDGWATER ST JOHN & ST FRANCIS CHURCH PRY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 56 57 57 60 60 60 56 56 60 57 61 410 Forecast 2020 56 57 57 60 60 60 56 56 60 57 409 0 Forecast 2021 56 57 57 60 60 60 55 56 60 408 -1 Forecast 2022 56 57 57 60 60 60 55 56 405 0 Forecast 2023 56 57 57 60 59 60 55 404 -1 Forecast 2024 55 56 57 57 60 59 60 404 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.89 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 9.8% -103 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 59 3401 BRIDGWATER ST JOSEPH'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 27 28 29 28 28 30 20 30 29 30 29 196 Forecast 2020 27 28 29 28 28 30 20 30 29 30 195 0 Forecast 2021 27 28 29 28 28 30 20 30 29 194 0 Forecast 2022 27 28 29 28 28 30 20 30 193 0 Forecast 2023 27 28 29 28 28 30 20 190 0 Forecast 2024 27 27 28 29 28 28 30 197 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 4.8% 28 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 62 3151 BRIDGWATER ST MARY'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 46 47 45 59 56 60 60 60 60 62 61 419 Forecast 2020 48 49 46 60 58 61 62 59 59 62 421 4 Forecast 2021 49 49 47 62 59 63 62 60 59 412 7 Forecast 2022 49 50 49 63 61 62 63 60 408 6 Forecast 2023 50 52 50 65 61 63 63 404 7 Forecast 2024 46 52 53 52 66 62 62 393 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.48 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.05 Catchment Adjustment 114.5% 6 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 17 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 302 2182 BRIDGWATER SOMERSET BRIDGE PRY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 54 55 55 57 60 59 60 79 81 61 58 458 Forecast 2020 56 57 56 59 61 59 60 79 81 62 461 4 Forecast 2021 58 57 58 60 61 59 61 80 82 461 6 Forecast 2022 58 59 59 60 61 60 62 81 442 6 Forecast 2023 60 60 59 60 62 61 63 425 6 Forecast 2024 59 61 61 60 61 63 62 427 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.05 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.66 Catchment Adjustment 65.4% -29 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 501P 4001 BRIDGWATER COLLEGE ACADEMY (Years R-6) Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 68 69 78 85 87 88 85 79 82 80 81 582 Forecast 2020 68 69 78 85 87 88 85 79 82 80 586 0 Forecast 2021 68 69 78 83 84 85 83 77 82 572 -12 Forecast 2022 68 69 76 80 81 83 81 77 547 -12 Forecast 2023 68 67 73 77 79 81 81 526 -12 Forecast 2024 61 66 64 70 75 77 81 494 -12 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.01 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 16.9% 75 per year 2020 Determined AN * 85 Notes: This is an all-through school: the above totals show the roll for years R-6 only, secondary year groups are shown in a separate table.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 18 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 514 4005 HIGHBRIDGE, THE KING ALFRED SCHOOL Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 230 227 221 228 213 103 53 1275 1119 Forecast 2020 228 228 224 217 227 95 93 1312 -10 1124 Forecast 2021 234 226 225 220 216 96 86 1303 -10 1121 Forecast 2022 245 232 223 221 219 86 86 1312 -10 1140 Forecast 2023 246 243 229 219 220 88 78 1322 -10 1157 Forecast 2024 243 244 240 225 218 88 79 1336 -10 1169 Forecast 2025 249 241 241 236 224 87 79 1357 -10 1191 Forecast 2026 238 247 238 237 235 90 78 1363 -10 1195 Forecast 2027 258 236 244 234 236 94 81 1383 -10 1208 Forecast 2028 237 256 233 240 233 94 85 1378 -10 1200 Forecast 2029 220 235 253 229 239 93 85 1355 -10 1177 Forecast 2030 189 218 232 249 228 96 84 1296 -10 1116

16+ Forecast (base) 40.0% 17+ Forecast 90.0%

Secondary Migration: 97.5

Average transfer from primary (%): 94.5

2020 Determined AN * 250 (10 for 6th form)

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 19 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: BURNHAM-ON-SEA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 168 209 233 261 243 264 259 264 262 249 241 1782 Forecast 2020 178 215 238 265 247 267 261 262 259 248 1809 7 Forecast 2021 185 220 244 268 252 270 260 259 259 1812 13 Forecast 2022 191 226 247 273 257 269 256 260 1788 15 Forecast 2023 196 230 251 276 256 265 257 1731 12 Forecast 2024 195 197 234 255 277 252 264 1674 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.40 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.86 Catchment Adjustment 88.1% -29.5 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 31 3226 BERROW PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 24 26 22 29 27 29 30 29 28 30 23 196 Forecast 2020 26 27 24 30 28 30 31 28 29 29 205 3 Forecast 2021 27 28 25 30 29 30 30 29 28 201 1 Forecast 2022 27 28 24 30 29 29 30 28 198 -3 Forecast 2023 27 27 24 30 28 29 29 194 -3 Forecast 2024 27 27 27 24 29 28 28 190 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.30 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.46 Catchment Adjustment 91.0% -3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 44 3227 BRENT KNOLL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 15 17 20 19 21 18 19 21 23 12 20 134 Forecast 2020 17 17 21 19 22 19 19 21 19 12 131 -2 Forecast 2021 17 18 21 20 23 19 19 17 19 138 -2 Forecast 2022 18 18 21 21 24 19 15 17 135 -2 Forecast 2023 18 18 21 20 24 15 15 131 -5 Forecast 2024 17 18 18 21 20 20 15 129 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.44 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.79 Catchment Adjustment 284.0% 12 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 144 2169 EAST HUNTSPILL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 8 14 11 11 13 17 13 14 11 13 7 88 Forecast 2020 8 14 11 11 13 17 13 14 11 12 91 -1 Forecast 2021 8 14 11 10 13 17 13 14 11 89 -1 Forecast 2022 9 15 12 10 14 17 13 14 95 3 Forecast 2023 10 16 12 11 14 17 13 93 3 Forecast 2024 11 9 16 12 11 14 16 89 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.78 Catchment Adjustment 84.6% -2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 20 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 272 2039 PAWLETT PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 8 12 5 12 8 8 10 8 9 8 4 55 Forecast 2020 8 12 5 12 8 8 10 8 9 8 63 0 Forecast 2021 8 12 5 12 8 8 10 8 8 59 -1 Forecast 2022 9 12 6 13 8 8 10 8 65 2 Forecast 2023 9 13 7 13 8 8 10 68 2 Forecast 2024 10 8 13 7 13 8 7 66 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.37 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.10 Catchment Adjustment 112.1% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 11 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 410 2184 WEST HUNTSPILL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 10 8 13 16 12 20 16 20 9 13 12 102 Forecast 2020 10 8 13 16 11 20 16 20 9 13 105 -1 Forecast 2021 11 9 14 16 12 21 17 20 10 110 5 Forecast 2022 12 10 14 17 13 21 17 21 113 4 Forecast 2023 13 10 15 18 14 21 18 109 5 Forecast 2024 12 13 11 16 19 14 22 107 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.01 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.45 Catchment Adjustment 127.0% 3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

Town Area Summary: BURNHAM-ON-SEA / HIGHBRIDGE

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 103 132 162 174 162 172 171 172 182 173 175 1207 Forecast 2020 109 137 164 177 165 173 172 171 182 174 1214 8 Forecast 2021 114 139 168 180 167 175 171 171 183 1215 11 Forecast 2022 116 143 170 182 169 175 171 172 1182 11 Forecast 2023 119 146 172 184 168 175 172 1136 10 Forecast 2024 118 122 149 175 185 168 176 1093 11 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.73 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.67 Catchment Adjustment 78.1% -40 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Burnham-on-Sea County Infant, St Andrew's Junior, St Josephs and Churchfield Primary Schools

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 74 2165 BURNHAM-ON-SEA INFANTS Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 40 59 73 84 71 80 79 230 Forecast 2020 42 61 73 85 72 79 236 1 Forecast 2021 44 61 74 86 72 232 2 Forecast 2022 44 62 75 85 222 1 Forecast 2023 44 63 75 182 1 Forecast 2024 44 45 63 152 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.42 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.55 Catchment Adjustment 65.3% -34 per year 2020 Determined AN * 80 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 21 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 75 3152 BURNHAM-ON-SEA ST ANDREWS JUNIOR Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 82 84 81 81 328 Forecast 2020 80 81 84 81 326 0 Forecast 2021 80 78 81 84 323 -1 Forecast 2022 73 79 78 81 311 0 Forecast 2023 86 71 79 78 314 -1 Forecast 2024 76 85 71 79 311 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.42 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 101.28 Catchment Adjustment N/A 2020 Determined AN * 82 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 76 3402 BURNHAM-ON-SEA ST JOSEPH'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 32 33 34 34 34 35 34 34 34 31 31 233 Forecast 2020 33 33 34 34 34 35 33 33 34 31 234 -2 Forecast 2021 33 33 34 34 33 34 32 33 34 234 -3 Forecast 2022 33 33 34 34 32 33 32 33 231 -2 Forecast 2023 33 33 33 33 31 33 32 228 -3 Forecast 2024 33 33 33 32 32 31 32 226 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.70 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.30 Catchment Adjustment 18.2% 33 per year 2020 Determined AN * 34 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 180 2000 HIGHBRIDGE CHURCHFIELD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 31 40 55 56 57 57 58 56 64 61 63 416 Forecast 2020 34 43 57 58 59 59 59 57 64 62 418 9 Forecast 2021 37 45 60 60 62 61 61 57 65 426 13 Forecast 2022 39 48 61 63 64 63 61 58 418 12 Forecast 2023 42 50 64 65 66 63 62 412 13 Forecast 2024 41 44 53 67 68 66 65 404 13 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.75 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.95 Catchment Adjustment 53.7% -39 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 22 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 517 4274 CHARD, HOLYROOD Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 241 234 232 203 212 65 69 1256 1122 Forecast 2020 243 237 237 230 197 85 54 1282 -9 1144 Forecast 2021 262 239 240 235 224 79 70 1349 -9 1199 Forecast 2022 250 258 242 238 229 90 65 1371 -9 1216 Forecast 2023 240 246 261 240 232 92 74 1384 -9 1218 Forecast 2024 235 236 249 259 234 93 76 1381 -9 1212 Forecast 2025 218 231 239 247 253 93 77 1358 -9 1188 Forecast 2026 217 214 234 237 241 101 78 1322 -9 1143 Forecast 2027 240 213 217 232 231 96 84 1314 -9 1133 Forecast 2028 254 236 216 215 226 92 80 1320 -9 1148 Forecast 2029 229 250 239 214 209 91 77 1309 -9 1142 Forecast 2030 250 225 253 237 208 84 75 1332 -9 1173

16+ Forecast 40.0% 17+ Forecast 83.0%

Secondary Migration: 97.8

Average transfer from primary (%): 101.5

2020 Determined AN * 232 (20 for 6th form)

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 23 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: CHARD

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 225 209 234 227 209 214 231 236 244 258 239 1631 Forecast 2020 229 212 237 228 213 215 232 235 245 258 1626 7 Forecast 2021 232 216 238 232 213 217 231 236 246 1613 8 Forecast 2022 237 217 243 236 214 214 232 236 1592 9 Forecast 2023 238 222 246 237 213 215 232 1603 10 Forecast 2024 239 242 224 251 235 214 215 1620 10 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.58 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.15 Catchment Adjustment 91.5% -20.75 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 16 2001 ASHILL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 95744773665 38 Forecast 2020 9 5 7 4 4 7 7 3 6 6 37 0 Forecast 2021 9 5 7 4 4 7 7 3 6 38 0 Forecast 2022 9 5 7 4 4 7 7 3 37 0 Forecast 2023 9 4 7 4 4 7 7 42 -1 Forecast 2024 9 9 3 7 4 4 7 43 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.79 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 113.6% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 67 2110 BROADWAY, NEROCHE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): FO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 28 29 29 29 29 26 30 31 31 31 31 209 Forecast 2020 29 29 30 29 29 26 31 31 32 31 209 2 Forecast 2021 29 30 30 29 28 27 31 32 33 210 2 Forecast 2022 30 30 30 29 29 26 32 32 208 1 Forecast 2023 30 30 30 30 28 27 32 207 1 Forecast 2024 30 29 30 31 30 29 27 206 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.79 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.37 Catchment Adjustment 100.0% 0 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 72 2015 BUCKLAND ST MARY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 5 6 8 8 2 11 11 12 10 11 5 62 Forecast 2020 5 6 8 8 3 11 11 12 10 11 66 1 Forecast 2021 5 6 8 9 3 11 11 12 10 64 1 Forecast 2022 5 6 9 9 3 10 11 12 60 0 Forecast 2023 5 7 9 9 3 10 11 54 1 Forecast 2024 7 6 6 9 9 3 10 50 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.17 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 122.7% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 24 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 110 3307 COMBE ST NICHOLAS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 13 13 14 16 8 10 16 15 22 17 25 113 Forecast 2020 13 14 14 16 9 11 15 15 22 17 105 1 Forecast 2021 14 14 14 17 10 11 15 15 22 104 2 Forecast 2022 14 14 15 18 9 11 15 15 97 1 Forecast 2023 14 15 16 17 9 11 15 97 1 Forecast 2024 16 15 16 16 17 9 11 100 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.66 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.44 Catchment Adjustment 186.7% 7 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 331 2070 TATWORTH PRMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 26 22 27 29 26 28 30 29 22 33 33 201 Forecast 2020 26 22 27 29 26 27 30 29 22 33 196 -1 Forecast 2021 26 22 27 29 24 27 30 29 22 188 -2 Forecast 2022 27 22 28 29 25 27 30 29 190 2 Forecast 2023 27 23 28 30 25 27 30 190 2 Forecast 2024 25 28 23 29 30 25 27 187 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.37 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.39 Catchment Adjustment 119.5% 4 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 420 2042 WINSHAM PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 32661755328 31 Forecast 2020 3 2 6 6 1 7 5 5 2 2 28 -1 Forecast 2021 3 2 6 6 1 7 5 4 2 31 -1 Forecast 2022 3 2 6 6 1 7 4 4 30 -1 Forecast 2023 3 2 6 6 1 6 4 28 -1 Forecast 2024 4 3 2 6 6 0 6 27 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.09 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 53.1% -4 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

Town Area Summary: CHARD

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 141 132 143 135 139 125 132 141 150 158 132 977 Forecast 2020 144 134 145 136 141 126 133 140 151 158 985 5 Forecast 2021 146 137 146 138 143 127 132 141 151 978 6 Forecast 2022 149 138 148 141 143 126 133 141 970 6 Forecast 2023 150 141 150 141 143 127 133 985 7 Forecast 2024 149 152 144 153 139 144 127 1008 7 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.65 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.35 Catchment Adjustment 82.2% -29.75 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Avishayes, Manor Court and The Redstart Primary Schools

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 25 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 87 2102 CHARD AVISHAYES PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 30 27 30 27 30 26 30 32 33 34 25 210 Forecast 2020 31 27 31 27 31 26 30 32 33 34 213 1 Forecast 2021 31 28 31 28 32 26 30 32 33 212 2 Forecast 2022 31 28 31 29 32 26 30 32 208 1 Forecast 2023 31 29 31 29 32 26 30 208 1 Forecast 2024 30 32 30 31 29 32 26 210 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.78 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.02 Catchment Adjustment 62.6% -17 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 88 2329 CHARD THE REDSTART PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 57 58 59 59 60 59 57 57 62 64 63 422 Forecast 2020 58 59 59 60 60 59 58 56 63 64 420 2 Forecast 2021 59 60 60 60 60 60 58 57 63 418 3 Forecast 2022 60 60 60 60 61 59 59 57 416 1 Forecast 2023 60 60 60 60 61 60 59 420 1 Forecast 2024 60 59 60 61 59 62 60 421 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.28 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.19 Catchment Adjustment 101.7% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 91 2004 CHARD MANOR COURT PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 54 47 54 49 49 40 45 52 55 60 44 345 Forecast 2020 55 48 55 49 50 41 45 52 55 60 352 2 Forecast 2021 56 49 55 50 51 41 44 52 55 348 1 Forecast 2022 58 50 57 52 50 41 44 52 346 4 Forecast 2023 59 52 59 52 50 41 44 357 5 Forecast 2024 59 61 54 61 51 50 41 377 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.71 Catchment Adjustment 78.8% -14 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 26 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Upper School (13-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

CHEDDAR, THE KINGS OF WESSEX

Secondary Forecast: 520 4583 Total Net Total Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Pupils Year 9 10 11 12 13+ 9-13) (Yrs 9-11) (Yrs 9-11) Baseline 2019 236 282 241 162 141 1062 759 Forecast 2020 237 233 277 145 154 1045 -8 747 Forecast 2021 258 234 228 166 137 1023 -8 720 Forecast 2022 272 255 229 137 158 1051 -8 756 Forecast 2023 264 269 250 137 130 1050 -8 783 Forecast 2024 279 261 264 150 130 1084 -8 804 Forecast 2025 257 276 256 159 142 1089 -8 788 Forecast 2026 240 254 271 153 151 1069 -8 765 Forecast 2027 249 237 249 163 146 1043 -8 735 Forecast 2028 233 246 232 149 154 1014 -8 710 Forecast 2029 243 230 241 139 142 994 -8 713 Forecast 2030 261 240 225 144 132 1002 -8 725

16+ Forecast 60.0% 17+ Forecast 95.0%

Upper School Migration: 96.0

Average transfer from middle (%): 95.5

2020 Determined AN * 270 (15 for 6th form)

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Middle School (9-12) Catchment Summary Forecast Base Year: 2019

Middle aged pupils: Catchment Summary Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration Year 5 6 7 8 (Yrs 5-8) Baseline 2019 277 291 271 248 1087 Forecast 2020 293 282 286 270 1131 0 Forecast 2021 270 298 277 285 1130 0 Forecast 2022 252 275 293 276 1096 0 Forecast 2023 262 257 270 292 1081 0 Forecast 2024 244 267 252 269 1032 0 Forecast 2025 255 249 262 251 1018 0 Forecast 2026 274 260 244 261 1039 0 Forecast 2027 250 279 255 243 1027 0 Forecast 2028 235 255 274 254 1018 0 Forecast 2029 240 250 273 - - Forecast 2030 235 249 - -

Notes: The above data shows a summary of the forecasts for the Cheddar and Blackford Middle schools.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 27 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Middle School (9-12) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

BLACKFORD, HUGH SEXEY MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 481 4584 Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Net Year 5 6 7 8 (Yrs 5-8) Migration Baseline 2019 155 166 144 144 609 Forecast 2020 154 160 159 144 617 -2 Forecast 2021 152 159 153 159 623 -2 Forecast 2022 151 157 152 153 613 -2 Forecast 2023 141 156 150 152 600 -2 Forecast 2024 137 146 149 150 583 -2 Forecast 2025 138 142 139 149 568 -2 Forecast 2026 153 143 135 139 571 -2 Forecast 2027 150 158 136 135 579 -2 Forecast 2028 129 155 151 136 571 -2 Forecast 2029 134 148 151 - Forecast 2030 127 148 -

Middle Migration: 99.3

Average transfer from primary (%): 108.4

2020 Determined AN * 150

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

CHEDDAR, FAIRLANDS MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 482 4410 Total Pupils Net Pupils by NCY (Yrs 5-8) Migration Year 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2019 122 125 127 104 478 Forecast 2020 139 122 127 126 514 1 Forecast 2021 118 139 124 126 507 1 Forecast 2022 101 118 141 123 483 1 Forecast 2023 120 101 120 140 481 1 Forecast 2024 108 120 103 119 450 1 Forecast 2025 117 108 122 102 449 1 Forecast 2026 120 117 110 121 468 1 Forecast 2027 100 120 119 109 448 1 Forecast 2028 106 100 122 118 447 1 Forecast 2029 106 102 121 - Forecast 2030 108 101 -

Middle Migration: 100.3

Average transfer from primary (%): 105.3

2020 Determined AN * 127

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 28 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: CHEDDAR

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 74 71 91 93 89 105 93 108 139 534 Forecast 2020 80 75 94 97 94 109 96 110 506 14 Forecast 2021 84 78 98 102 98 112 96 506 12 Forecast 2022 87 82 103 106 101 114 506 14 Forecast 2023 88 87 107 109 102 493 13 Forecast 2024 86 93 91 110 111 491 14 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.38 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.35 Catchment Adjustment 95.9% -4 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 18 3225 AXBRIDGE FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 16 23 24 26 19 32 33 26 39 149 Forecast 2020 18 24 25 27 21 33 34 26 141 5 Forecast 2021 19 25 26 29 22 34 33 144 4 Forecast 2022 20 26 28 30 23 34 141 5 Forecast 2023 20 28 29 31 23 131 4 Forecast 2024 24 22 29 30 31 136 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.45 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.55 Catchment Adjustment 150.8% 8 per year 2020 Determined AN * 35 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 96 2255 CHEDDAR FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 37 34 51 42 43 50 38 54 65 250 Forecast 2020 39 36 52 44 45 52 39 55 235 8 Forecast 2021 41 37 54 46 47 53 39 239 7 Forecast 2022 42 39 56 48 48 54 245 8 Forecast 2023 43 41 58 49 48 239 6 Forecast 2024 43 45 43 59 50 240 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.96 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.89 Catchment Adjustment 74.9% -14 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 137 3317 DRAYCOTT & RODNEY STOKE FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 14 6 11 13 12 11 10 16 19 68 Forecast 2020 16 7 11 14 12 12 10 17 65 3 Forecast 2021 17 7 12 14 13 12 11 62 3 Forecast 2022 17 8 12 15 13 13 61 3 Forecast 2023 17 8 13 15 14 67 2 Forecast 2024 14 17 9 13 16 69 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 104.02 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.88 Catchment Adjustment 118.9% 2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 18 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 29 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 301 3238 SHIPHAM FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 7 8 5 12 15 12 12 12 16 67 Forecast 2020 7 8 6 12 16 12 13 12 65 2 Forecast 2021 7 9 6 13 16 13 13 61 2 Forecast 2022 8 9 7 13 17 13 59 2 Forecast 2023 8 10 7 14 17 56 2 Forecast 2024 5 9 10 8 14 46 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 104.22 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.90 Catchment Adjustment 114.3% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 16 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 30 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: BLACKFORD

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 85 110 122 112 109 119 131 139 140 638 Forecast 2020 92 114 126 114 115 121 134 145 629 17 Forecast 2021 96 118 128 119 118 123 140 628 16 Forecast 2022 101 121 136 121 120 129 627 18 Forecast 2023 103 127 138 121 125 614 13 Forecast 2024 114 109 129 140 126 618 15 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.22 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.44 Catchment Adjustment 170.9% 45 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 142 3232 EAST BRENT FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 9 17 18 12 15 13 22 14 18 82 Forecast 2020 9 18 19 12 16 13 22 15 78 2 Forecast 2021 10 19 19 13 16 12 23 83 1 Forecast 2022 11 19 20 13 16 13 81 2 Forecast 2023 11 20 20 13 17 81 2 Forecast 2024 15 12 20 20 14 81 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.82 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.52 Catchment Adjustment 130.2% 3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 220 3236 LYMPSHAM FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 15 19 21 20 11 26 25 21 22 105 Forecast 2020 16 19 22 20 11 27 26 22 106 3 Forecast 2021 16 20 22 20 12 28 27 109 3 Forecast 2022 17 21 24 21 12 29 107 5 Forecast 2023 18 23 25 20 13 99 4 Forecast 2024 21 19 24 26 21 111 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 104.12 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.24 Catchment Adjustment 312.5% 13 per year 2020 Determined AN * 18 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 221 3237 MARK FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 18 28 25 30 33 22 24 27 39 145 Forecast 2020 19 28 26 30 35 22 24 28 139 3 Forecast 2021 19 29 26 31 35 22 25 139 2 Forecast 2022 20 29 28 30 35 23 145 2 Forecast 2023 20 30 28 30 36 144 2 Forecast 2024 21 22 30 28 31 132 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.14 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.65 Catchment Adjustment 259.0% 16 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 31 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 386 3240 WEARE FIRST SCHOOL Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 24 24 24 25 20 28 27 32 23 130 Forecast 2020 26 25 24 26 21 27 27 33 134 2 Forecast 2021 27 25 25 27 21 27 28 128 3 Forecast 2022 27 26 26 27 21 28 128 3 Forecast 2023 27 27 26 27 22 129 2 Forecast 2024 29 28 27 26 28 138 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.75 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.79 Catchment Adjustment 149.2% 8 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 388 2250 WEDMORE FIRST SCHOOL Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 19 22 34 25 30 30 33 45 38 176 Forecast 2020 22 24 35 26 32 32 35 47 172 9 Forecast 2021 24 25 36 28 34 34 37 169 9 Forecast 2022 26 26 38 30 36 36 166 9 Forecast 2023 27 27 39 31 37 161 5 Forecast 2024 28 28 28 40 32 156 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 104.93 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.86 Catchment Adjustment 125.0% 5 per year 2020 Determined AN * 45 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 32 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Upper School (13-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

CREWKERNE WADHAM

Secondary Forecast: 522 4508 Total Net Total Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Pupils Year 9 10 11 12 13+ 9-13) (Yrs 9-11) (Yrs 9-11) Baseline 2019 130 153 136 19 16 454 419 Forecast 2020 148 130 152 20 16 466 -1 430 Forecast 2021 149 148 129 23 17 466 -1 426 Forecast 2022 152 149 147 19 19 487 -1 448 Forecast 2023 157 152 148 22 16 496 -1 458 Forecast 2024 159 157 151 22 19 509 -1 468 Forecast 2025 145 159 156 23 19 502 -1 460 Forecast 2026 160 145 158 23 19 506 -1 463 Forecast 2027 144 160 144 24 20 492 -1 448 Forecast 2028 121 144 159 22 20 466 -1 424 Forecast 2029 137 121 143 24 18 444 -1 402 Forecast 2030 130 137 120 21 20 429 -1 387

16+ Forecast 15.0% 17+ Forecast 85.0%

Upper School Migration: 99.5

Average transfer from middle (%): 94.0

2020 Determined AN * 230 (15 for 6th form)

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC Notes:

Middle School (9-12) Catchment Summary Forecast Base Year: 2019

Total Net Pupils Middle aged pupils: Catchment Summary Migration (Yrs 5-8) Pupils by NCY Year 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2019 188 184 162 157 691 Forecast 2020 193 188 165 159 705 -20 Forecast 2021 180 193 170 162 705 -20 Forecast 2022 192 180 173 167 712 -20 Forecast 2023 176 192 157 170 695 -20 Forecast 2024 153 176 173 154 657 -20 Forecast 2025 169 152 156 170 647 -20 Forecast 2026 161 169 132 153 616 -20 Forecast 2027 185 161 149 129 624 -20 Forecast 2028 153 184 141 146 625 -20 Forecast 2029 150 165 138 - - Forecast 2030 133 162 - -

Notes: The above data shows a summary of the pupils in years 5-8 in the Crewkerne/Ilminster planning area (including pupils in those years groups in primary schools).

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 33 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Middle School (9-12) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

CREWKERNE, MAIDEN BEECH MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 484 4287 Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Net Year 5 6 7 8 (Yrs 5-8) Migration Baseline 2019 110 108 94 96 408 Forecast 2020 118 111 103 92 424 -6 Forecast 2021 92 119 106 101 418 -6 Forecast 2022 118 93 114 104 430 -6 Forecast 2023 105 119 88 112 425 -6 Forecast 2024 86 106 114 86 393 -6 Forecast 2025 104 87 101 112 405 -6 Forecast 2026 92 105 82 99 378 -6 Forecast 2027 107 93 100 80 380 -6 Forecast 2028 79 108 88 98 373 -6 Forecast 2029 80 103 86 - - Forecast 2030 75 101 - -

Middle Migration: 98.0

Average transfer from primary (%): 99.25

2020 Determined AN * 123

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

ILMINSTER, SWANMEAD MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 494 4288 Total Pupils Net Pupils by NCY (Yrs 5-8) Migration Year 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2019 77 74 68 61 280 Forecast 2020 71 76 62 67 276 -14 Forecast 2021 82 70 64 61 277 -14 Forecast 2022 72 81 58 63 274 -14 Forecast 2023 68 71 69 57 265 -14 Forecast 2024 63 67 59 68 257 -14 Forecast 2025 62 62 55 58 237 -14 Forecast 2026 67 61 50 54 231 -14 Forecast 2027 75 66 49 49 238 -14 Forecast 2028 71 74 54 48 246 -14 Forecast 2029 70 62 53 - - Forecast 2030 58 61 - -

Middle Migration: 95.3

Average transfer from primary (%): 93.7

2020 Determined AN * 87

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 34 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: CREWKERNE

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 79 107 93 106 91 113 124 96 119 543 Forecast 2020 81 108 95 107 93 112 120 93 525 -6 Forecast 2021 82 110 96 108 92 108 119 523 -5 Forecast 2022 84 111 96 109 88 106 510 -5 Forecast 2023 85 113 96 107 87 488 -1 Forecast 2024 96 84 113 94 105 492 -5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.93 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.48 Catchment Adjustment 88.9% -12 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 173 3278 HASELBURY PLUCKNETT FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 6 9 7 12 4 5 13 10 7 39 Forecast 2020 6 9 7 12 4 5 13 10 44 0 Forecast 2021 6 9 7 12 4 4 13 40 -1 Forecast 2022 6 9 7 12 4 4 36 0 Forecast 2023 6 9 7 11 4 37 -1 Forecast 2024 8 5 9 7 11 40 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.10 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 97.1% 0 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 184 3064 HINTON ST GEORGE FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 5 6 8 13 5 9 16 7 17 54 Forecast 2020 5 6 8 13 5 9 15 6 48 -2 Forecast 2021 5 6 8 12 5 8 15 48 -2 Forecast 2022 5 6 8 12 4 7 37 -2 Forecast 2023 5 6 8 11 4 34 -1 Forecast 2024 5 5 6 7 10 33 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 94.77 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 139.1% 2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 16 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 228 2046 MERRIOTT FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 20 20 20 24 20 23 22 16 26 107 Forecast 2020 20 20 20 24 20 22 21 15 102 -3 Forecast 2021 20 20 20 24 19 20 21 104 -3 Forecast 2022 21 21 21 25 18 20 105 2 Forecast 2023 22 22 21 25 18 108 2 Forecast 2024 22 23 22 22 25 114 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.53 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.46 Catchment Adjustment 120.0% 4 per year 2020 Determined AN * 24 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 35 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 237 3080 MISTERTON FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 6 8 3 4 1 8 11 9 7 36 Forecast 2020 7 8 4 5 2 8 11 9 35 2 Forecast 2021 7 9 5 6 2 8 11 32 2 Forecast 2022 7 9 4 6 2 8 29 -1 Forecast 2023 7 9 4 6 2 28 0 Forecast 2024 10 7 9 3 6 35 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 107.94 Catchment Adjustment 53.8% -5 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

Town Area Summary: CREWKERNE

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 42 64 55 53 61 68 62 54 62 307 Forecast 2020 43 65 56 53 62 68 60 53 296 -2 Forecast 2021 44 66 56 54 62 68 59 299 0 Forecast 2022 45 66 56 54 60 67 303 -3 Forecast 2023 45 67 56 54 59 281 0 Forecast 2024 51 44 67 55 53 270 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.33 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.13 Catchment Adjustment 80.5% -13 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for St Bartholomew's and Ashlands First schools.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 120 3037 CREWKERNE ST BARTHOLOMEWS FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 27 36 36 33 36 40 35 32 34 177 Forecast 2020 27 36 36 33 36 39 34 31 173 -3 Forecast 2021 27 36 36 33 35 39 33 176 -2 Forecast 2022 27 36 35 32 34 38 175 -4 Forecast 2023 27 36 34 32 33 162 -2 Forecast 2024 31 25 35 33 31 155 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.69 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 93.0% -3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 36 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 122 3035 CREWKERNE ASHLANDS FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 15 28 19 20 25 28 27 22 28 130 Forecast 2020 16 29 20 20 26 29 26 22 123 1 Forecast 2021 17 30 20 21 27 29 26 123 2 Forecast 2022 18 30 21 22 26 29 128 1 Forecast 2023 18 31 22 22 26 119 2 Forecast 2024 19 19 32 22 22 114 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.63 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.83 Catchment Adjustment 66.1% -11 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 36 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: ILMINSTER

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 65 78 74 65 70 76 78 89 76 1 2 392 Forecast 2020 67 80 76 67 71 75 78 87 3 1 382 -2 Forecast 2021 69 82 78 69 69 76 77 6 3 378 0 Forecast 2022 70 83 77 68 68 73 2 6 377 -6 Forecast 2023 71 83 74 68 67 3 2 368 -4 Forecast 2024 79 70 82 73 66 4 3 377 -5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.86 (years R to 4 only) 3 3 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.34 3 3 Catchment Adjustment 84.7% -13 per year 3 3 3 3

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 23 3003 ILTON, ST MARY & ST PETER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0 1 2 3 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 5 11 4 4 7 4 6 7 4 1 2 31 Forecast 2020 6 12 5 5 8 4 8 7 0 1 33 0 Forecast 2021 7 13 6 6 8 6 8 3 0 37 0 Forecast 2022 7 13 5 6 9 5 2 3 43 -7 Forecast 2023 7 12 4 7 9 1 2 42 -5 Forecast 2024 10 6 12 5 6 3 1 43 -7 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.17 (years R to 4 only) Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 109.46 Catchment Adjustment 33.8% -12 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes: This is a primary school with places for pupils up to year 6, although most transfer to middle at the end of year 4. The forecast opt out of pupils shown above is largely speculative based only on the recent trend. The position will be reviewed in future forecast calculations in light of the actual retention of pupils into year 5.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 196 3066 ILMINSTER, GREENFYLDE FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 55 60 60 56 55 65 68 71 61 320 Forecast 2020 56 61 61 57 56 64 67 69 313 -2 Forecast 2021 57 62 62 58 55 63 66 304 -1 Forecast 2022 58 63 63 57 54 61 298 -2 Forecast 2023 59 64 62 56 53 294 -1 Forecast 2024 63 60 63 61 55 302 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.02 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.71 Catchment Adjustment 97.5% -2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 76 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 296 3098 SHEPTON BEAUCHAMP PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 5 7 10 5 8 7 4 11 11 0 0 41 Forecast 2020 5 7 10 5 7 7 3 11 3 0 36 -10 Forecast 2021 5 7 10 5 6 7 3 3 3 37 -9 Forecast 2022 5 7 9 5 5 7 0 3 36 -5 Forecast 2023 5 7 8 5 5 2 0 32 -6 Forecast 2024 6 4 7 7 5 1 2 32 -6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 93.89 (years R to 4 only) Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 108.0% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 10 Notes: This is a primary school with places for pupils up to year 6, although most transfer to middle at the end of year 4. The forecast opt out of pupils shown above is largely speculative based only on the recent trend. The position will be reviewed in future forecast calculations in light of the actual retention of pupils into year 5.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 37 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: FS01S 4002 FROME, AVANTI PARK (Years 7-11) Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 26 22 16 25 24 0 0 113 113 Forecast 2020 23 22 0 0 25 0 0 70 -42 70 Forecast 2021 29 23 0 0 0 0 0 52 -22 52 Forecast 2022 49 29 0 0 0 0 0 78 -23 78 Forecast 2023 51 49 0 0 0 0 0 100 -29 100 Forecast 2024 47 51 0 0 0 0 0 98 -49 98 Forecast 2025 46 47 0 0 0 0 0 93 -51 93 Forecast 2026 49 46 0 0 0 0 0 95 -47 95 Forecast 2027 51 49 0 0 0 0 0 100 -46 100 Forecast 2028 49 51 0 0 0 0 0 100 -49 100 Forecast 2029 49 49 0 0 0 0 0 98 -51 98 Forecast 2030 47 49 0 0 0 0 0 96 -49 96

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 99.0 Average transfer from primary (%): 98.6

2020 Determined AN * n/a Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Notes: This is the successor school to the Steiner Free School which was an all-through school for pupils up to year 11. The new school is now in the process of conversion to only take pupils up to the end of Year 8. Data for the primary and secondary age ranges appears in separately. The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data. Avanti Park School has been assigned the DfE Establishment No. 933/4007 (wef Nov-19).

Upper School (13-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

FROME COMMUNITY COLLEGE

Secondary Forecast: 527 4000 Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration Total Pupils Year 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 9-13) (Yrs 9-11) (Yrs 9-11) Baseline 2019 292 287 282 172 129 1162 861 Forecast 2020 319 300 284 203 131 1236 5 903 Forecast 2021 362 316 297 213 154 1341 -6 974 Forecast 2022 314 359 313 205 162 1351 -6 985 Forecast 2023 323 311 356 216 156 1361 -6 990 Forecast 2024 359 320 308 245 164 1396 -6 987 Forecast 2025 319 356 317 212 186 1391 -6 992 Forecast 2026 338 316 353 219 161 1387 -6 1007 Forecast 2027 318 335 313 243 166 1375 -6 966 Forecast 2028 372 315 332 216 185 1419 -6 1018 Forecast 2029 338 369 312 229 164 1412 -6 1019 Forecast 2030 321 335 366 215 174 1412 -6 1023

16+ Forecast 69.0% 17+ Forecast 76.0%

Upper School Migration: 97.5

Average transfer from middle (%): 97.8

2020 Determined AN * 366 (25 for 6th form)

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 38 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Middle School (9-12) Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

FROME MIDDLE SUMMARY

Middle Forecast: Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Net Year 5 6 7 8 (Yrs 5-8) Migration Baseline 2019 337 325 347 303 1312 Forecast 2020 355 337 301 347 1340 -24 Forecast 2021 313 353 305 297 1268 -38 Forecast 2022 335 311 321 301 1268 -38 Forecast 2023 318 333 279 317 1247 -38 Forecast 2024 370 316 301 275 1263 -38 Forecast 2025 334 368 284 297 1284 -38 Forecast 2026 319 332 336 280 1267 -38 Forecast 2027 315 317 300 332 1264 -38 Forecast 2028 314 313 285 296 1207 -38 Forecast 2029 312 281 281 - - Forecast 2030 280 277 - -

Middle Migration: 87.9

Average transfer from primary (%): 79.5

Notes: 1. The above data is the combined roll of Selwood and Oakfield Middle schools 2. Transfer caclulations are based on area data for first AND primary provision

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 39 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Middle School (9-12) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

FROME, OAKFIELD MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 489 4257 Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Net Year 5 6 7 8 (Yrs 5-8) Migration Baseline 2019 174 157 163 154 648 Forecast 2020 178 176 147 163 664 -8 Forecast 2021 156 177 160 147 640 -17 Forecast 2022 168 155 161 160 644 -17 Forecast 2023 159 167 139 161 626 -17 Forecast 2024 185 158 151 139 633 -17

Middle Migration: 94.9

Average transfer from primary (%): 50.0

2020 Determined AN * 174

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

FROME, SELWOOD MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 491 4552 Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration Year 5 6 7 8 (Yrs 5-8) Baseline 2019 163 168 184 149 664 Forecast 2020 177 161 154 184 676 -16 Forecast 2021 156 176 147 150 630 -19 Forecast 2022 168 155 162 143 629 -19 Forecast 2023 159 167 141 158 625 -19 Forecast 2024 185 158 153 137 633 -19

Middle Migration: 93.9

Average transfer from primary (%): 50.0

2020 Determined AN * 189

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 40 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: FROME

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 374 388 393 423 465 403 429 407 441 53 57 2255 Forecast 2020 379 395 399 429 467 404 428 401 73 55 2257 -4 Forecast 2021 386 401 405 431 468 403 422 74 75 2278 -4 Forecast 2022 393 406 410 432 467 395 74 76 2260 -3 Forecast 2023 398 408 411 431 460 64 76 2248 -5 Forecast 2024 379 402 406 410 423 76 65 2161 -7 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.73 (years R to 4 only) Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.53 Catchment Adjustment 94.8% -22 per year Notes: The above data is a summary of the number on roll in all first and primary schools in the Frome planning area

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 28 3008 BECKINGTON FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 16 16 16 17 20 16 16 17 15 84 Forecast 2020 16 16 17 17 20 16 15 16 84 -2 Forecast 2021 16 17 17 17 19 15 14 82 -3 Forecast 2022 17 17 17 17 18 14 83 -2 Forecast 2023 17 17 17 16 17 84 -2 Forecast 2024 16 17 17 15 15 80 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.48 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.83 Catchment Adjustment 158.5% 6 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 30 3009 BERKLEY FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 18 18 19 19 24 19 22 18 21 104 Forecast 2020 18 19 19 20 23 19 23 17 102 0 Forecast 2021 19 19 20 20 23 20 22 105 1 Forecast 2022 19 20 20 20 23 19 102 0 Forecast 2023 20 20 20 21 22 103 1 Forecast 2024 20 20 19 21 20 100 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.28 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.21 Catchment Adjustment 389.5% 14 per year 2020 Determined AN * 19 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 213 2043 LEIGH UPON MENDIP FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 11 7 11 12 16 8 12 7 7 50 Forecast 2020 11 7 11 12 16 8 12 7 55 0 Forecast 2021 11 7 11 12 15 8 11 57 -2 Forecast 2022 11 7 11 11 15 7 51 -2 Forecast 2023 11 7 10 11 14 53 -2 Forecast 2024 7 11 6 10 10 44 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.36 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 186.4% 5 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 41 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 227 3078 MELLS FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 9 8 10 14 15 10 20 10 9 64 Forecast 2020 9 8 11 14 15 10 19 9 67 -2 Forecast 2021 9 9 11 14 15 9 18 67 -2 Forecast 2022 10 9 11 14 14 8 56 -2 Forecast 2023 10 9 11 12 13 55 -3 Forecast 2024 7 10 9 10 11 47 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 95.63 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.09 Catchment Adjustment 124.2% 2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 18 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 255 3342 NORTON ST PHILIP FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 8 6 6 8 11 10 9 12 12 54 Forecast 2020 8 6 6 8 11 9 9 12 49 -1 Forecast 2021 8 6 6 8 11 9 9 43 0 Forecast 2022 8 6 6 8 11 9 40 0 Forecast 2023 8 5 6 8 11 38 -1 Forecast 2024 5 8 5 5 8 31 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.25 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 133.3% 2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 258 2021 NUNNEY FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 14 12 10 12 13 12 8 4 10 47 Forecast 2020 14 12 10 12 12 12 8 3 47 -2 Forecast 2021 14 12 10 11 12 11 8 52 -2 Forecast 2022 14 12 9 11 12 10 54 -2 Forecast 2023 14 11 9 11 12 57 -1 Forecast 2024 13 13 11 9 10 56 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 95.79 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 84.2% -2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 18 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 286 3287 RODE FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 6 16 10 14 16 11 15 15 22 79 Forecast 2020 8 18 11 16 18 12 16 15 77 6 Forecast 2021 10 19 13 18 19 13 16 79 6 Forecast 2022 11 19 13 18 18 12 80 -2 Forecast 2023 11 19 13 18 17 78 -1 Forecast 2024 13 10 19 13 17 72 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.96 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 110.57 Catchment Adjustment 135.3% 3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 18 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 42 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Forecast Base Year: 2019

Town Area Summary: FROME

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 292 305 311 327 350 317 327 324 345 53 57 1773 Forecast 2020 295 309 314 330 352 318 326 322 73 55 1776 0 Forecast 2021 299 312 317 331 354 318 324 74 75 1793 1 Forecast 2022 303 316 323 333 356 316 74 76 1794 8 Forecast 2023 307 320 325 334 354 64 76 1780 5 Forecast 2024 297 313 320 327 332 76 65 1730 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.30 (years R to 4 only) Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.14 Catchment Adjustment 85.9% -51 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Trinity, Christchurch, Hayesdown, St Johns, & Vallis First Schools, St Louis Primary School and the primary age groups of Avanti Park School.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 151 3058 FROME TRINITY FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 48 54 59 59 60 56 58 58 59 291 Forecast 2020 48 54 59 59 59 56 57 57 288 -3 Forecast 2021 48 54 59 58 59 55 56 287 -3 Forecast 2022 49 55 60 58 60 55 288 3 Forecast 2023 50 56 60 59 59 284 2 Forecast 2024 50 51 56 61 59 277 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.91 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.56 Catchment Adjustment 61.1% -35 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 152 3057 FROME CHRISTCHURCH FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 25 27 30 27 33 33 27 39 32 164 Forecast 2020 27 29 32 29 34 34 28 39 164 5 Forecast 2021 29 31 34 30 35 35 28 162 5 Forecast 2022 31 33 35 31 36 35 170 5 Forecast 2023 33 34 36 32 36 171 5 Forecast 2024 36 34 35 37 31 173 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.12 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 106.94 Catchment Adjustment 32.6% -56 per year 2020 Determined AN * 48 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 153 2011 FROME HAYESDOWN FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 53 53 50 59 60 59 59 51 60 289 Forecast 2020 53 54 51 59 61 60 59 50 289 1 Forecast 2021 54 55 51 59 62 59 59 290 0 Forecast 2022 55 55 52 60 62 58 287 1 Forecast 2023 55 55 53 59 62 284 0 Forecast 2024 52 56 55 53 58 274 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.17 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.93 Catchment Adjustment 40.0% -81 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 43 Forecast Base Year: 2019 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

School: 157 3369 FROME ST JOHN'S FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 55 57 57 58 60 58 56 54 62 290 Forecast 2020 55 57 57 58 59 58 56 55 286 0 Forecast 2021 55 57 57 58 59 58 57 289 1 Forecast 2022 55 57 58 58 59 59 291 2 Forecast 2023 55 57 58 58 60 288 1 Forecast 2024 54 56 57 57 58 282 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.35 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 15.8% 57 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 158 3371 FROME ST LOUIS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 23 24 25 27 29 19 29 25 26 24 30 182 Forecast 2020 23 25 25 27 29 18 30 25 24 26 179 0 Forecast 2021 24 25 25 27 29 19 29 23 26 178 0 Forecast 2022 24 25 25 27 30 19 27 25 178 1 Forecast 2023 24 25 25 28 29 17 29 177 0 Forecast 2024 22 24 25 26 28 27 19 171 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.26 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.82 Catchment Adjustment 6.9% 25 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 160 2028 FROME VALLIS FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 42 41 41 45 56 43 48 45 57 249 Forecast 2020 43 41 41 46 57 44 47 45 239 2 Forecast 2021 43 41 42 46 58 44 48 238 3 Forecast 2022 43 42 43 47 58 43 233 2 Forecast 2023 44 43 44 46 59 236 3 Forecast 2024 38 45 43 44 47 217 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.85 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.19 Catchment Adjustment 82.0% -9 per year 2020 Determined AN * 56 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: FS01P 4002 FROME, AVANTI PARK (Years R-6) Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 46 49 49 52 52 49 50 52 49 29 27 308 Forecast 2020 46 49 49 52 53 48 49 51 49 29 331 -2 Forecast 2021 46 49 49 53 52 48 47 51 49 349 -2 Forecast 2022 46 49 50 52 51 47 47 51 347 -2 Forecast 2023 46 50 49 52 49 47 47 340 -2 Forecast 2024 45 47 49 49 51 49 46 336 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.32 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 13.6% 49 per year 2020 Determined AN * 52 Notes: This is the successor school to the Steiner Free School which was an all-through school for pupils up to year 11. The new school is now in the process of conversion to only take pupils up to the end of Year 8. Data for the primary and secondary age ranges appears in separately. The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data. Avanti Park School has been assigned the DfE Establishment No. 933/4007 (wef 27-11-19). Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 44 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 533 4258 GLASTONBURY, ST DUNSTAN'S Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 75 78 54 64 62 0 0 333 333 Forecast 2020 78 77 80 58 62 0 0 355 6 355 Forecast 2021 73 79 79 84 56 0 0 371 5 371 Forecast 2022 69 75 81 83 82 0 0 390 6 390 Forecast 2023 71 70 77 85 81 0 0 384 5 384 Forecast 2024 66 73 72 81 83 0 0 375 6 375 Forecast 2025 59 67 75 76 79 0 0 356 5 356 Forecast 2026 59 61 69 79 74 0 0 343 6 343 Forecast 2027 71 60 63 73 77 0 0 345 5 345 Forecast 2028 71 73 62 67 71 0 0 345 6 345 Forecast 2029 68 72 75 66 65 0 0 347 5 347 Forecast 2030 65 70 74 79 64 0 0 353 6 353

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 101.4

Average transfer from primary (%): 59.4 (Full primary area)

2020 Determined AN * 132

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 45 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: GLASTONBURY

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 110 117 127 128 112 110 121 126 119 125 128 841 Forecast 2020 112 119 130 132 111 110 119 123 118 123 836 -5 Forecast 2021 114 122 134 131 110 107 115 122 116 835 -8 Forecast 2022 118 128 132 130 108 104 114 120 836 -5 Forecast 2023 121 127 129 128 104 102 112 823 -11 Forecast 2024 130 120 124 128 124 102 100 828 -13 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.35 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.76 Catchment Adjustment 86.7% -18.5 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 21 3001 BALTONSBOROUGH PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 12 12 13 13 14 10 16 12 17 13 10 92 Forecast 2020 12 12 13 13 14 10 16 11 17 12 93 -2 Forecast 2021 12 12 13 13 14 9 15 11 16 91 -3 Forecast 2022 13 13 14 13 16 9 15 11 91 4 Forecast 2023 14 14 14 15 16 9 15 97 4 Forecast 2024 13 15 14 16 15 16 9 98 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.42 Catchment Adjustment 89.3% -2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 80 3017 BUTLEIGH PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 12 14 16 18 17 14 12 17 10 13 17 100 Forecast 2020 12 14 16 18 17 14 12 16 10 12 99 -2 Forecast 2021 12 14 16 18 17 14 11 16 9 101 -2 Forecast 2022 12 15 15 17 17 13 11 15 103 -3 Forecast 2023 13 14 15 16 16 13 10 97 -3 Forecast 2024 13 12 13 15 16 16 12 97 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.57 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.43 Catchment Adjustment 272.7% 10 per year 2020 Determined AN * 16 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 166 3060 GLASTONBURY ST JOHN'S INFANTS Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 47 52 56 50 37 46 43 126 Forecast 2020 49 53 58 53 36 46 135 2 Forecast 2021 50 55 61 52 36 149 2 Forecast 2022 52 58 60 52 170 2 Forecast 2023 52 57 58 167 -3 Forecast 2024 63 51 55 169 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.24 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.64 Catchment Adjustment 55.9% -41 per year 2020 Determined AN * 70 Notes: The above totals exclude the nursery class at this school

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 46 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 164 3322 GLASTONBURY ST BENEDICT'S JUNIOR Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 50 43 57 57 207 Forecast 2020 40 50 43 57 190 -3 Forecast 2021 43 40 50 43 176 -3 Forecast 2022 32 43 40 49 164 -5 Forecast 2023 49 31 42 39 161 -6 Forecast 2024 55 47 30 41 173 -7 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.77 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 93.19 Catchment Adjustment N/A 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 226 2045 MEARE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 13 12 14 18 13 11 18 16 15 14 16 103 Forecast 2020 13 12 14 18 13 11 18 16 14 14 104 -1 Forecast 2021 13 12 14 18 13 11 17 15 14 102 -2 Forecast 2022 13 12 13 18 13 10 16 15 97 -3 Forecast 2023 13 12 13 17 12 9 16 92 -3 Forecast 2024 12 13 12 12 16 11 9 85 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.16 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 101.8% 0 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 413 3121 WEST PENNARD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 26 27 28 29 31 29 32 31 34 28 28 213 Forecast 2020 26 28 29 30 31 29 33 30 34 28 215 1 Forecast 2021 27 29 30 30 30 30 32 30 34 216 0 Forecast 2022 28 30 30 30 30 29 32 30 211 0 Forecast 2023 29 30 29 31 29 29 32 209 0 Forecast 2024 29 29 30 30 30 29 29 206 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.67 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.25 Catchment Adjustment 200.0% 14 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 47 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 535 4259 HUISH EPISCOPI Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 251 263 268 262 277 96 69 1486 1321 Forecast 2020 269 251 258 272 260 111 91 1512 -3 1310 Forecast 2021 276 269 246 262 270 104 105 1533 -3 1323 Forecast 2022 287 276 264 250 260 108 99 1544 -3 1337 Forecast 2023 261 287 271 268 248 104 103 1542 -3 1335 Forecast 2024 279 260 281 274 266 99 99 1559 -6 1361 Forecast 2025 279 278 254 284 272 106 94 1568 -6 1368 Forecast 2026 282 278 272 257 282 109 101 1582 -6 1372 Forecast 2027 276 281 272 275 255 113 104 1576 -6 1360 Forecast 2028 260 275 275 275 273 102 107 1568 -6 1359 Forecast 2029 262 259 269 278 273 109 97 1548 -6 1342 Forecast 2030 269 261 253 272 276 109 104 1545 -6 1332

16+ Forecast 40.0% 17+ Forecast 95.0%

Secondary Migration: 98.8

Average transfer from primary (%): 125.8

2020 Determined AN * 268 (20 for 6th form)

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 48 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: HUISH EPISCOPI

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 156 156 161 192 207 195 212 190 217 213 210 1444 Forecast 2020 163 163 168 198 217 200 216 197 221 216 1465 39 Forecast 2021 170 171 173 208 223 204 222 201 224 1455 38 Forecast 2022 177 175 182 212 227 211 226 204 1437 35 Forecast 2023 181 184 187 216 233 215 229 1445 35 Forecast 2024 164 189 189 191 223 236 218 1410 30 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.56 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.70 Catchment Adjustment 105.6% 8.75 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 94 3020 CHARLTON MACKRELL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 7 7 12 8 13 10 15 8 12 9 10 77 Forecast 2020 7 8 13 8 14 11 15 8 12 9 77 2 Forecast 2021 8 9 13 9 15 11 15 8 12 83 2 Forecast 2022 8 9 13 9 15 11 15 8 80 0 Forecast 2023 8 9 13 9 15 11 15 80 0 Forecast 2024 8 8 9 13 9 15 11 73 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.17 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.60 Catchment Adjustment 147.8% 3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 127 3039 CURRY MALLET PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 9 9 10 10 13 6 17 11 12 9 14 82 Forecast 2020 10 9 11 11 14 6 18 11 13 9 82 4 Forecast 2021 10 10 12 12 14 7 18 12 13 88 4 Forecast 2022 11 11 13 12 15 7 19 12 89 4 Forecast 2023 11 12 13 13 15 8 19 91 3 Forecast 2024 10 11 12 14 13 16 8 84 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.84 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 107.07 Catchment Adjustment 380.0% 7 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 128 3040 CURRY RIVEL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 10 17 8 21 20 21 23 22 24 25 19 154 Forecast 2020 11 18 9 22 21 21 23 23 24 25 159 3 Forecast 2021 12 19 10 23 21 21 24 23 24 146 3 Forecast 2022 13 19 11 23 21 22 24 23 143 2 Forecast 2023 14 20 11 23 22 22 24 136 3 Forecast 2024 13 15 21 11 24 21 22 127 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.61 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 106.52 Catchment Adjustment 65.9% -7 per year 2020 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 49 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 171 2029 HAMBRIDGE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 16 15 18 20 18 14 19 16 22 25 30 144 Forecast 2020 17 15 18 20 19 16 20 18 22 25 140 6 Forecast 2021 17 16 18 21 21 17 22 18 22 139 6 Forecast 2022 18 16 19 23 22 19 22 18 139 6 Forecast 2023 18 17 21 24 24 19 22 145 6 Forecast 2024 17 19 19 22 26 24 19 146 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 105.08 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.76 Catchment Adjustment 230.0% 10 per year 2020 Determined AN * 20 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 183 3062 HIGH HAM PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 18 16 15 18 16 23 21 24 25 24 26 159 Forecast 2020 18 17 15 18 17 23 22 24 26 24 154 3 Forecast 2021 19 17 15 19 17 24 22 25 26 148 3 Forecast 2022 19 17 16 19 18 24 23 25 142 3 Forecast 2023 19 18 16 20 18 25 23 139 3 Forecast 2024 19 20 18 17 20 19 25 138 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.43 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.16 Catchment Adjustment 279.2% 11 per year 2020 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 190 2034 HUISH EPISCOPI PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 15 18 15 25 30 24 25 19 28 25 25 176 Forecast 2020 16 19 17 26 31 24 26 20 28 26 181 5 Forecast 2021 17 21 17 27 31 25 27 20 29 176 4 Forecast 2022 19 21 18 27 32 26 27 21 172 4 Forecast 2023 19 22 18 28 33 26 28 174 4 Forecast 2024 15 20 22 19 29 33 27 165 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.67 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.49 Catchment Adjustment 49.7% -19 per year 2020 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 207 2041 KINGSBURY EPISCOPI PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 18 15 17 20 22 24 26 27 20 24 24 167 Forecast 2020 18 16 18 21 23 25 26 27 21 25 168 5 Forecast 2021 19 17 19 22 24 25 26 28 22 166 5 Forecast 2022 20 18 20 23 24 25 27 29 166 5 Forecast 2023 21 19 21 23 24 26 28 162 5 Forecast 2024 19 22 20 21 23 25 27 157 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.85 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.06 Catchment Adjustment 250.0% 11 per year 2020 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 50 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 215 3331 LONG SUTTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 9 12 11 11 12 17 8 16 10 13 14 90 Forecast 2020 10 12 11 11 13 17 8 17 10 13 89 2 Forecast 2021 10 12 11 12 13 17 9 17 10 89 2 Forecast 2022 10 12 12 12 13 18 9 17 93 2 Forecast 2023 10 13 12 12 14 18 9 88 2 Forecast 2024 10 11 13 12 13 14 18 91 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.59 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.93 Catchment Adjustment 195.5% 5 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 230 2172 MIDDLEZOY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 34452565574 34 Forecast 2020 3 4 4 5 2 5 6 5 5 7 35 0 Forecast 2021 3 4 4 5 2 5 6 5 5 32 0 Forecast 2022 3 4 4 5 2 5 6 5 31 0 Forecast 2023 3 4 4 5 2 5 6 29 0 Forecast 2024 4 3 4 4 5 2 5 27 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 64.0% -2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 15 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 267 2177 OTHERY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 468712487687 52 Forecast 2020 4 6 8 7 12 4 8 7 6 8 52 0 Forecast 2021 4 6 8 7 12 4 8 7 6 52 0 Forecast 2022 4 6 8 7 12 4 8 7 52 0 Forecast 2023 4 6 8 7 12 4 8 49 0 Forecast 2024 2 4 6 8 7 12 4 43 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 108.7% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 15 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 304 2064 SOMERTON, KING INA INFANTS Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 47 37 43 47 49 47 44 140 Forecast 2020 49 39 44 49 51 48 148 5 Forecast 2021 51 40 46 51 53 150 6 Forecast 2022 52 42 48 52 142 5 Forecast 2023 54 44 50 148 6 Forecast 2024 49 56 45 150 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.53 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.79 Catchment Adjustment 81.7% -10 per year 2020 Determined AN * 45 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 51 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 305 3353 SOMERTON, KING INA JUNIOR Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 35 53 44 37 169 Forecast 2020 44 37 54 45 180 4 Forecast 2021 48 45 38 55 186 3 Forecast 2022 53 50 46 39 188 4 Forecast 2023 52 54 51 47 204 3 Forecast 2024 50 54 55 52 211 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.56 Forecast transfer from infant (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment N/A 2020 Determined AN * 45 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 52 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: NORTH MENDIP

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 65 75 74 78 84 80 91 82 85 80 79 581 Forecast 2020 68 78 76 80 86 83 91 82 86 83 591 11 Forecast 2021 71 80 79 83 89 83 90 83 89 596 12 Forecast 2022 73 83 81 87 88 81 91 87 598 11 Forecast 2023 76 85 83 86 88 83 94 595 11 Forecast 2024 76 78 88 82 87 89 87 588 10 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.74 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.52 Catchment Adjustment 175.9% 31.5 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 107 3029 COLEFORD, BISHOP HENDERSON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 18 20 21 24 27 20 31 21 22 19 22 162 Forecast 2020 19 21 21 24 28 21 31 21 22 20 167 3 Forecast 2021 20 21 22 25 29 20 31 21 23 171 3 Forecast 2022 20 22 23 26 28 20 31 22 172 3 Forecast 2023 21 23 24 25 28 20 32 173 3 Forecast 2024 19 22 24 24 25 28 21 163 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.65 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.93 Catchment Adjustment 81.4% -5 per year 2020 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 176 2030 HEMINGTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 12844422534 24 Forecast 2020 1 3 8 4 4 4 2 2 5 3 24 0 Forecast 2021 2 3 8 4 4 4 2 2 5 29 0 Forecast 2022 2 4 8 4 4 3 2 2 27 0 Forecast 2023 2 4 8 4 4 3 2 27 0 Forecast 2024 3 2 4 8 4 4 3 28 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.13 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 108.82 Catchment Adjustment 78.9% -1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 15 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 204 3329 KILMERSDON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 23 28 20 23 25 26 27 30 27 31 27 193 Forecast 2020 24 29 21 24 26 27 28 30 28 33 196 7 Forecast 2021 25 30 22 25 27 28 28 31 30 191 7 Forecast 2022 26 30 23 27 27 28 29 33 197 6 Forecast 2023 27 30 23 27 28 30 31 196 6 Forecast 2024 29 28 31 23 28 29 32 200 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.54 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.61 Catchment Adjustment 208.9% 12 per year 2020 Determined AN * 24 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 53 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 325 3358 ST BENEDICTS PRIMARY, MIDSOMER NORTON Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 23 25 25 27 28 30 31 29 31 27 26 202 Forecast 2020 24 25 26 28 28 31 30 29 31 27 204 1 Forecast 2021 24 26 27 29 29 31 29 29 31 205 2 Forecast 2022 25 27 27 30 29 30 29 30 202 2 Forecast 2023 26 28 28 30 28 30 29 199 2 Forecast 2024 26 26 29 27 30 28 31 197 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.46 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.20 Catchment Adjustment 60.2% -17 per year 2020 Determined AN * 27 Notes: Catchment data for this school is based on the data for all primary schools in this area

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 54 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 544 4282 SHEPTON MALLET, WHITSTONE Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 103 103 128 104 90 0 0 528 528 Forecast 2020 115 101 102 131 103 0 0 552 -1 552 Forecast 2021 112 113 100 105 130 0 0 560 -1 560 Forecast 2022 111 110 112 103 104 0 0 541 -1 541 Forecast 2023 118 109 109 115 102 0 0 553 -1 553 Forecast 2024 93 116 108 112 114 0 0 544 -1 544 Forecast 2025 86 91 115 111 111 0 0 515 -1 515 Forecast 2026 107 84 90 118 110 0 0 510 -1 510 Forecast 2027 98 105 83 93 117 0 0 496 -1 496 Forecast 2028 104 96 104 86 92 0 0 482 -1 482 Forecast 2029 112 102 95 107 85 0 0 502 -1 502 Forecast 2030 98 110 101 98 106 0 0 513 -1 513

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 99.8

Average transfer from primary (%): 66.1 (Full primary area)

2020 Determined AN * 125

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 55 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: SHEPTON MALLET

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 137 166 154 154 172 137 145 179 169 169 174 1145 Forecast 2020 140 169 157 158 166 136 141 180 168 169 1118 -7 Forecast 2021 143 172 160 153 166 131 142 178 168 1098 -8 Forecast 2022 146 175 156 152 161 132 141 178 1095 -7 Forecast 2023 152 172 160 148 162 131 141 1066 3 Forecast 2024 157 151 175 158 149 162 131 1083 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.28 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.21 Catchment Adjustment 81.4% -35 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 124 3311 CROSCOMBE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 7 10 7 6 11 6 8 12 10 8 14 69 Forecast 2020 7 10 7 7 11 6 8 11 10 8 61 0 Forecast 2021 7 10 8 7 10 6 7 11 10 59 -1 Forecast 2022 7 11 8 7 10 5 7 11 59 0 Forecast 2023 8 10 8 6 9 5 7 53 -2 Forecast 2024 8 7 10 8 5 9 5 52 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.41 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.13 Catchment Adjustment 230.8% 4 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 134 3041 DOULTING ST ALDHELM'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 27 29 28 22 29 20 25 23 22 30 33 182 Forecast 2020 28 29 29 23 28 19 24 22 21 29 166 -5 Forecast 2021 28 30 29 22 28 18 23 21 20 161 -5 Forecast 2022 29 30 28 21 27 17 22 20 165 -6 Forecast 2023 29 28 28 20 26 16 21 168 -6 Forecast 2024 30 28 27 26 19 25 15 170 -7 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 95.83 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.79 Catchment Adjustment 278.9% 17 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 262 3085 OAKHILL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 14 15 17 16 12 19 17 19 17 20 18 122 Forecast 2020 14 16 17 16 11 20 17 19 17 20 120 0 Forecast 2021 15 16 17 16 12 19 17 19 17 117 0 Forecast 2022 15 16 17 17 12 19 17 19 117 1 Forecast 2023 16 15 18 16 12 19 17 113 0 Forecast 2024 18 16 16 18 16 12 19 115 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.20 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.94 Catchment Adjustment 124.0% 3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 56 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 319 2067 STOKE ST MICHAEL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 5 10 6 9 4 6 8 12 5 7 6 48 Forecast 2020 5 10 6 9 3 6 8 12 5 7 50 -1 Forecast 2021 5 10 7 9 3 6 8 11 5 49 0 Forecast 2022 5 10 6 9 3 6 8 11 53 -1 Forecast 2023 6 10 6 9 3 5 8 47 0 Forecast 2024 9 5 10 6 9 3 5 47 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.62 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.82 Catchment Adjustment 61.2% -5 per year 2020 Determined AN * 7 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 375 3129 UPTON NOBLE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 15 14 16 21 18 13 20 26 27 23 27 154 Forecast 2020 15 14 17 22 18 14 20 27 26 23 150 2 Forecast 2021 15 15 18 21 19 14 21 26 26 145 1 Forecast 2022 16 16 18 22 19 15 20 26 136 2 Forecast 2023 17 16 19 22 20 14 20 128 2 Forecast 2024 16 17 17 20 23 19 14 126 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.85 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.43 Catchment Adjustment 98.5% 0 per year 2020 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

Town Area Summary: SHEPTON MALLET

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 69 88 80 80 98 73 67 87 88 81 76 570 Forecast 2020 71 90 81 81 95 71 64 89 89 82 571 -3 Forecast 2021 73 91 81 78 94 68 66 90 90 567 -3 Forecast 2022 74 92 79 76 90 70 67 91 565 -3 Forecast 2023 76 93 81 75 92 72 68 557 9 Forecast 2024 76 78 95 80 77 94 73 573 8 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.17 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.63 Catchment Adjustment 59.4% -54.25 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Bowlish Inf, Shepton Mallet Inf and Shepton Mallet St Paul's

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 40 2106 BOWLISH INFANTS Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 33 39 39 39 40 37 32 109 Forecast 2020 34 40 39 40 39 36 115 -1 Forecast 2021 35 40 39 38 39 116 -2 Forecast 2022 35 41 38 37 116 -1 Forecast 2023 35 40 38 113 -1 Forecast 2024 36 34 39 109 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.67 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.34 Catchment Adjustment 174.4% 16 per year 2020 Determined AN * 39 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 57 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 298 2062 SHEPTON MALLET INFANTS Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 36 49 41 41 58 36 35 129 Forecast 2020 37 50 42 41 56 35 132 -3 Forecast 2021 38 51 42 40 55 137 -2 Forecast 2022 39 51 41 39 131 -2 Forecast 2023 41 53 43 137 6 Forecast 2024 39 44 56 139 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.65 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.89 Catchment Adjustment 37.3% -70 per year 2020 Determined AN * 47 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 299 3132 SHEPTON MALLET, ST PAUL'S JUNIOR Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 87 88 81 76 332 Forecast 2020 64 89 89 82 324 1 Forecast 2021 68 66 90 90 314 1 Forecast 2022 90 70 67 91 318 0 Forecast 2023 75 92 72 68 307 4 Forecast 2024 80 77 94 73 324 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.85 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 96.92 Catchment Adjustment N/A 2020 Determined AN * 74 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 58 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 546 4450 STOKE-SUB-HAMDON, STANCHESTER Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 181 138 129 125 114 0 0 687 687 Forecast 2020 141 182 140 132 121 0 0 716 2 716 Forecast 2021 154 142 184 143 128 0 0 751 2 751 Forecast 2022 148 155 144 187 139 0 0 774 2 774 Forecast 2023 142 149 157 147 183 0 0 779 2 779 Forecast 2024 157 143 151 160 143 0 0 754 2 754 Forecast 2025 148 158 145 154 156 0 0 761 2 761 Forecast 2026 155 149 160 148 150 0 0 762 2 762 Forecast 2027 151 156 151 163 144 0 0 765 2 765 Forecast 2028 141 152 158 154 159 0 0 764 2 764 Forecast 2029 133 142 154 161 150 0 0 741 2 741 Forecast 2030 123 134 144 157 157 0 0 715 2 715

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 100.5

Average transfer from primary (%): 67.5

2020 Determined AN * 174

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 59 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: STOKE-SUB-HAMDON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 164 182 194 208 220 216 226 209 217 229 211 1528 Forecast 2020 166 184 197 210 221 216 225 211 221 230 1534 9 Forecast 2021 168 187 199 212 219 216 226 216 221 1509 8 Forecast 2022 171 190 204 212 221 219 230 212 1488 13 Forecast 2023 174 195 204 213 223 224 227 1460 13 Forecast 2024 165 179 194 206 216 227 221 1408 10 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.67 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.37 Catchment Adjustment 91.4% -17.5 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 11 3276 ASH PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 19 21 21 23 23 25 26 28 22 29 19 172 Forecast 2020 20 21 22 24 23 26 26 29 23 30 181 5 Forecast 2021 20 22 23 24 23 26 27 30 24 177 4 Forecast 2022 20 22 22 23 24 27 28 30 176 1 Forecast 2023 20 21 21 23 25 28 29 167 1 Forecast 2024 20 19 20 22 24 26 28 159 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.35 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.39 Catchment Adjustment 700.0% 18 per year 2020 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 194 2327 ILCHESTER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 40 43 45 47 47 41 42 36 34 48 36 284 Forecast 2020 40 43 45 47 46 39 41 35 34 48 290 -5 Forecast 2021 40 43 45 47 44 38 40 35 34 283 -4 Forecast 2022 41 45 47 46 44 38 40 33 293 1 Forecast 2023 43 47 46 46 44 38 38 302 1 Forecast 2024 42 45 46 46 46 44 37 306 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.13 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.17 Catchment Adjustment 94.6% -3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 47 Notes: Number on roll is subject to fluctuation as a result of movement of service families linked to RNAS Yeovilton.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 224 3486 MARTOCK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 26 20 23 22 30 29 29 29 41 29 23 210 Forecast 2020 26 20 23 22 30 29 29 28 41 28 207 -2 Forecast 2021 26 20 23 22 30 29 28 28 40 200 -2 Forecast 2022 27 21 24 23 30 28 28 27 181 1 Forecast 2023 28 22 25 23 29 28 27 182 1 Forecast 2024 23 29 23 25 22 29 27 178 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.52 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.29 Catchment Adjustment 55.5% -18 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 60 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 241 3493 MONTACUTE, ALL SAINTS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 27 24 25 30 30 30 28 30 31 31 33 213 Forecast 2020 27 24 26 30 30 29 28 31 31 31 210 0 Forecast 2021 27 25 27 30 29 30 28 32 31 207 2 Forecast 2022 27 25 28 29 30 31 28 31 202 1 Forecast 2023 27 26 28 30 30 32 27 200 2 Forecast 2024 25 28 25 29 31 31 31 200 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.68 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.15 Catchment Adjustment 59.6% -18 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 256 3281 NORTON SUB HAMDON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 11 13 11 16 13 10 17 17 17 15 18 107 Forecast 2020 11 14 11 16 13 11 17 16 18 15 106 1 Forecast 2021 12 14 11 16 14 11 16 17 18 103 1 Forecast 2022 12 14 11 17 14 10 17 17 100 1 Forecast 2023 12 14 12 17 13 11 17 96 1 Forecast 2024 12 12 14 12 16 13 11 90 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.70 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.60 Catchment Adjustment 170.0% 5 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 307 3484 SOUTH PETHERTON INFANTS Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 21 26 34 37 36 45 35 116 Forecast 2020 21 27 35 37 37 46 120 2 Forecast 2021 22 28 35 38 38 111 2 Forecast 2022 23 28 36 39 103 2 Forecast 2023 23 29 37 89 2 Forecast 2024 21 24 30 75 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.91 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.82 Catchment Adjustment 101.7% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 35 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 308 2306 SOUTH PETHERTON JUNIOR Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 34 33 28 36 131 Forecast 2020 35 34 35 29 133 3 Forecast 2021 46 35 36 35 152 2 Forecast 2022 38 46 37 36 157 2 Forecast 2023 39 38 48 37 162 2 Forecast 2024 37 39 40 48 164 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.96 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment N/A 2020 Determined AN * 37 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 61 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 320 2014 STOKE-SUB-HAMDON, CASTLE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 9 19 19 15 16 18 25 19 16 23 21 138 Forecast 2020 9 19 19 15 17 18 25 20 16 23 134 2 Forecast 2021 9 19 19 16 17 18 26 20 16 132 2 Forecast 2022 9 19 20 16 17 19 26 20 137 2 Forecast 2023 9 20 20 16 18 19 26 128 2 Forecast 2024 13 10 20 20 17 18 19 117 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.78 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 70.5% -7 per year 2020 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 364 3485 TINTINHULL, ST MARGARET'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 6 12 9 12 14 14 15 11 14 18 16 102 Forecast 2020 6 12 9 13 14 13 15 12 14 18 99 1 Forecast 2021 6 12 9 13 13 13 16 12 14 90 0 Forecast 2022 6 12 9 12 13 14 16 12 88 0 Forecast 2023 6 12 8 12 14 14 16 82 0 Forecast 2024 6 6 11 8 13 14 14 72 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.11 Catchment Adjustment 130.0% 2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 15 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 407 3284 WEST CHINNOCK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 547611495989 55 Forecast 2020 64 761159698 54 2 Forecast 2021 6 4 7 6115106 9 54 1 Forecast 2022 6 4 7 7 11 6 10 6 51 2 Forecast 2023 6 4 7 7 12 6 10 52 1 Forecast 2024 3 6 5 7 8 12 6 47 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.57 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.82 Catchment Adjustment 146.7% 2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 62 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 548 4283 STREET, CRISPIN Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 230 199 203 225 204 0 0 1061 1061 Forecast 2020 224 227 199 203 220 0 0 1073 -8 1073 Forecast 2021 235 221 227 199 198 0 0 1080 -8 1080 Forecast 2022 214 232 221 227 194 0 0 1088 -8 1088 Forecast 2023 236 211 232 221 222 0 0 1122 -8 1122 Forecast 2024 220 233 211 232 216 0 0 1113 -8 1113 Forecast 2025 226 217 233 211 227 0 0 1115 -8 1115 Forecast 2026 215 223 217 233 206 0 0 1094 -8 1094 Forecast 2027 192 212 223 217 228 0 0 1072 -8 1072 Forecast 2028 171 189 212 223 212 0 0 1006 -8 1006 Forecast 2029 177 168 189 212 218 0 0 962 -8 962 Forecast 2030 192 174 168 189 207 0 0 929 -8 929

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 98.0

Average transfer from primary (%): 104.7

2020 Determined AN * 224

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 63 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: STREET

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 153 147 144 164 194 204 200 221 205 227 214 1465 Forecast 2020 156 149 148 169 196 204 205 225 207 225 1431 16 Forecast 2021 160 154 153 172 196 209 210 227 205 1372 18 Forecast 2022 165 160 156 172 199 215 212 226 1340 19 Forecast 2023 171 162 155 177 204 218 211 1298 19 Forecast 2024 153 175 160 158 182 206 216 1250 10 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.03 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.92 Catchment Adjustment 101.5% 2.25 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 13 2150 ASHCOTT PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 13 15 16 16 18 19 13 17 17 13 19 116 Forecast 2020 13 15 16 17 18 19 13 18 17 12 114 1 Forecast 2021 15 16 17 18 19 19 14 18 17 122 4 Forecast 2022 16 17 18 19 19 20 14 17 124 3 Forecast 2023 17 17 18 19 20 20 14 125 2 Forecast 2024 17 17 17 18 20 20 19 128 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.15 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.30 Catchment Adjustment 153.8% 5 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 86 2166 CATCOTT PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 17 15 14 15 22 23 23 25 19 23 31 166 Forecast 2020 18 15 15 16 22 23 24 25 20 23 153 3 Forecast 2021 18 16 16 16 22 24 24 26 19 147 2 Forecast 2022 19 17 16 16 21 25 25 26 146 2 Forecast 2023 20 17 16 17 21 26 24 141 2 Forecast 2024 17 20 17 15 18 22 26 135 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.95 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.94 Catchment Adjustment 77.2% -5 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 381 3110 WALTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 17 13 15 20 20 21 23 25 22 16 22 149 Forecast 2020 18 13 16 21 20 21 24 25 22 16 149 2 Forecast 2021 18 14 17 21 19 22 24 25 22 150 1 Forecast 2022 19 16 17 21 20 23 24 25 146 4 Forecast 2023 21 16 17 22 21 23 24 144 4 Forecast 2024 18 22 15 18 22 21 23 139 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.95 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 106.13 Catchment Adjustment 166.7% 7 per year 2020 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 64 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

Town Area Summary: STREET

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 106 104 99 113 134 141 141 154 147 175 142 1034 Forecast 2020 107 106 101 115 136 141 144 157 148 174 1015 10 Forecast 2021 109 108 103 117 136 144 148 158 147 953 11 Forecast 2022 111 110 105 116 139 147 149 158 924 10 Forecast 2023 113 112 104 119 142 149 149 888 11 Forecast 2024 101 116 111 107 122 143 148 848 8 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.04 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.79 Catchment Adjustment 95.5% -5 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Hindhayes Infant, Elmhurst Junior and Brookside Primary Schools

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 327 2113 STREET BROOKSIDE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 58 60 60 62 61 64 64 66 61 93 68 477 Forecast 2020 58 61 61 62 61 63 66 68 61 92 473 2 Forecast 2021 59 62 61 62 60 65 68 68 60 444 2 Forecast 2022 60 62 61 60 62 67 68 68 448 2 Forecast 2023 60 62 59 62 64 67 68 442 2 Forecast 2024 61 61 60 61 64 64 66 437 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.52 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.83 Catchment Adjustment 151.9% 21 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 329 2069 STREET HINDHAYES INFANTS Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 48 44 39 51 73 77 77 227 Forecast 2020 49 45 40 53 75 78 206 5 Forecast 2021 50 46 42 55 76 173 5 Forecast 2022 51 48 44 56 148 5 Forecast 2023 53 50 45 148 5 Forecast 2024 40 55 51 146 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.63 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.02 Catchment Adjustment 64.1% -26 per year 2020 Determined AN * 76 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 328 2068 STREET ELMHURST JUNIOR Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 88 86 82 74 330 Forecast 2020 78 89 87 82 336 3 Forecast 2021 79 80 90 87 336 4 Forecast 2022 77 80 81 90 328 3 Forecast 2023 57 78 82 81 298 4 Forecast 2024 46 58 79 82 265 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.99 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 101.51 Catchment Adjustment N/A 2020 Determined AN * 83 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 65 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: TAUNTON SECONDARY SUMMARY Net Total Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Migration Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 878 854 840 823 780 37 37 4249 4175 Forecast 2020 916 877 847 840 817 41 33 4371 -14 4297 Forecast 2021 951 915 870 847 834 41 37 4494 -14 4417 Forecast 2022 953 950 908 870 841 44 37 4602 -14 4521 Forecast 2023 943 952 945 908 864 44 40 4695 -12 4611 Forecast 2024 894 942 947 945 902 45 40 4714 -12 4629 Forecast 2025 992 893 937 947 939 46 41 4793 -12 4706 Forecast 2026 945 991 888 937 941 46 41 4788 -12 4701 Forecast 2027 950 944 986 888 931 46 41 4786 -12 4698 Forecast 2028 979 949 939 986 882 46 42 4822 -12 4734 Forecast 2029 921 978 944 939 980 45 41 4847 -12 4761 Forecast 2030 920 920 973 944 933 50 40 4780 -12 4689

16+ Forecast see note 17+ Forecast below

Secondary Migration: 96.9

Average transfer from primary (%): 98.0

Notes: The above represents the combined forecasts of the following schools: The Castle, Heathfield, Bishop Fox's and the Taunton Academy . The 16+ forecast data above is the total forecast of the only school 6th form in this area at Heathfield.

Secondary Forecast: 579 4358 TAUNTON, THE CASTLE Net Total Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Migration Years 7- Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11 Baseline 2019 240 236 238 240 237 0 0 1191 1191 Forecast 2020 240 239 233 238 239 0 0 1189 -5 1189 Forecast 2021 240 239 236 233 237 0 0 1186 -5 1186 Forecast 2022 241 239 236 236 232 0 0 1184 -5 1184 Forecast 2023 240 240 238 236 235 0 0 1189 -3 1189 Forecast 2024 239 239 239 238 235 0 0 1191 -3 1191

16+ Forecast 0.0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 25.80 Secondary Migration: 99.0

2020 Determined AN * 240

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 66 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 585 4354 TAUNTON, HEATHFIELD Net Total Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Migration Years 7- Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11 Baseline 2019 272 267 264 243 239 37 37 1359 1285 Forecast 2020 275 272 264 264 240 41 33 1389 -6 1315 Forecast 2021 276 275 269 264 261 41 37 1422 -6 1345 Forecast 2022 279 276 272 269 261 44 37 1437 -6 1356 Forecast 2023 276 279 273 272 266 44 40 1449 -6 1365 Forecast 2024 270 276 276 273 269 45 40 1448 -6 1363

16+ Forecast 17.0% 17+ Forecast 90.0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 29.55 Secondary Migration: 98.5

2020 Determined AN * 270 (15 for 6th form)

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 590 4100 TAUNTON, BISHOP FOX'S Net Total Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Migration Years 7- Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11 Baseline 2019 197 196 192 193 191 0 0 969 969 Forecast 2020 222 197 192 192 191 0 0 994 -6 994 Forecast 2021 240 222 193 192 190 0 0 1037 -6 1037 Forecast 2022 238 240 218 193 190 0 0 1079 -6 1079 Forecast 2023 236 238 236 218 191 0 0 1119 -6 1119 Forecast 2024 215 236 234 236 216 0 0 1137 -6 1137

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 24.70 Secondary Migration: 98.5

2020 Determined AN * 195

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 905 6905 TAUNTON ACADEMY Net Total Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Migration Years 7- Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11 Baseline 2019 169 155 146 147 113 0 0 730 730 Forecast 2020 179 169 158 146 147 0 0 799 3 799 Forecast 2021 195 179 172 158 146 0 0 850 3 850 Forecast 2022 195 195 182 172 158 0 0 902 3 902 Forecast 2023 191 195 198 182 172 0 0 938 3 938 Forecast 2024 170 191 198 198 182 0 0 939 3 939

16+ Forecast 0.0% 17+ Forecast 0.0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 19.95 Secondary Migration: 100.8

2020 Determined AN * 220

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 67 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: TAUNTON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 845 869 943 930 942 988 906 951 969 963 932 6651 Forecast 2020 864 890 954 940 948 991 910 949 971 967 6676 27 Forecast 2021 886 901 966 943 952 996 906 955 974 6692 29 Forecast 2022 898 915 974 948 959 996 911 959 6662 43 Forecast 2023 913 920 982 957 956 1005 914 6647 46 Forecast 2024 912 920 925 990 960 960 1012 6679 34 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.45 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.64 Catchment Adjustment 93.8% -59.25 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 34 2200 BISHOPS HULL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 26 22 30 32 28 34 33 30 31 34 33 223 Forecast 2020 27 22 30 32 28 34 32 30 31 34 221 -1 Forecast 2021 27 22 30 31 28 34 32 30 31 216 -1 Forecast 2022 29 24 32 33 29 34 32 30 214 7 Forecast 2023 31 26 34 34 29 34 32 220 7 Forecast 2024 30 33 28 36 35 29 34 225 9 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.61 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.62 Catchment Adjustment 79.1% -7 per year 2020 Determined AN * 33 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 97 2010 CHEDDON FITZPAINE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 20 17 20 19 13 25 16 22 24 14 21 135 Forecast 2020 20 17 20 19 13 24 16 21 24 14 131 -2 Forecast 2021 20 17 20 18 12 24 15 21 24 134 -3 Forecast 2022 20 17 20 17 12 23 15 21 125 -2 Forecast 2023 20 16 19 17 11 23 15 121 -3 Forecast 2024 21 20 15 19 16 11 23 125 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.82 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 217.1% 10 per year 2020 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 105 2203 CHURCHSTANTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 10 8 7 10 8 8 13 10 6 10 10 65 Forecast 2020 10 9 7 10 8 8 14 10 6 10 66 1 Forecast 2021 11 9 7 11 8 9 14 10 6 65 2 Forecast 2022 11 9 8 10 9 9 14 10 69 1 Forecast 2023 11 10 8 11 9 9 14 72 2 Forecast 2024 11 12 9 9 11 9 9 70 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.44 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.17 Catchment Adjustment 97.2% 0 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 68 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 117 3178 CREECH ST MICHAEL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 33 34 38 37 38 36 41 38 39 40 41 273 Forecast 2020 35 36 39 38 40 37 40 38 39 40 272 3 Forecast 2021 37 37 40 39 41 37 40 38 39 274 3 Forecast 2022 38 38 42 40 40 37 40 38 275 3 Forecast 2023 39 39 43 40 40 37 40 278 3 Forecast 2024 39 40 40 44 40 39 37 279 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.85 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.57 Catchment Adjustment 125.7% 7 per year 2020 Determined AN * 38 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 175 2031 HATCH BEAUCHAMP PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 33855024637 27 Forecast 2020 3 3 8 5 5 0 2 3 6 3 24 -1 Forecast 2021 3 3 8 5 5 0 2 3 6 29 0 Forecast 2022 3 3 8 5 5 -1 2 3 25 -1 Forecast 2023 3 3 8 5 5 -1 2 25 0 Forecast 2024 3 3 3 8 4 5 -1 25 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.25 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 55.9% -4 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 209 3180 KINGSTON ST MARY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 15 13 16 13 18 10 11 19 17 18 15 108 Forecast 2020 16 14 16 13 19 9 11 19 17 17 105 -1 Forecast 2021 17 14 16 14 19 9 11 19 16 104 0 Forecast 2022 17 14 17 13 19 9 11 18 101 -1 Forecast 2023 17 14 17 13 19 9 10 99 -1 Forecast 2024 15 18 13 17 13 19 8 103 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.09 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.99 Catchment Adjustment 247.8% 9 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 246 3182 NORTH CURRY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 19 19 19 15 19 25 26 18 30 32 17 167 Forecast 2020 20 20 21 16 21 27 27 18 30 32 171 6 Forecast 2021 21 20 22 17 22 27 27 18 30 163 3 Forecast 2022 21 20 21 17 22 26 28 18 152 -1 Forecast 2023 21 19 21 17 22 27 28 155 0 Forecast 2024 22 20 19 20 17 23 27 148 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.73 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.59 Catchment Adjustment 100.0% 0 per year 2020 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 69 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 252 3184 NORTON FITZWARREN PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 54 50 56 55 53 55 38 43 34 45 26 294 Forecast 2020 56 52 57 56 55 56 39 43 33 45 327 4 Forecast 2021 58 53 58 58 56 57 38 43 33 343 4 Forecast 2022 59 54 60 59 57 57 37 43 367 4 Forecast 2023 60 56 61 60 56 57 37 387 4 Forecast 2024 60 62 57 62 61 55 57 414 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.04 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.36 Catchment Adjustment 84.6% -10 per year 2020 Determined AN * 45 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 289 3286 RUISHTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 20 25 26 27 26 29 27 30 30 29 28 199 Forecast 2020 20 26 27 28 27 29 28 31 31 29 203 5 Forecast 2021 21 27 28 29 27 30 29 32 30 205 4 Forecast 2022 22 28 29 29 28 31 29 32 206 4 Forecast 2023 23 29 29 30 29 32 28 200 4 Forecast 2024 25 24 29 30 31 29 32 200 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.85 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.73 Catchment Adjustment 200.0% 12 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 311 3189 STAPLEGROVE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 27 27 30 30 30 29 29 29 32 26 30 205 Forecast 2020 27 27 30 30 30 28 29 28 31 26 202 -3 Forecast 2021 27 28 30 29 29 28 28 27 31 202 -4 Forecast 2022 29 29 32 30 31 29 28 27 206 7 Forecast 2023 30 31 33 32 32 29 27 214 6 Forecast 2024 30 32 32 35 33 32 29 223 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.13 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.77 Catchment Adjustment 85.1% -5 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 318 3190 STOKE ST GREGORY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 5 7 10 6 12 13 12 9 15 11 14 86 Forecast 2020 5 7 10 6 12 13 12 9 14 11 77 -1 Forecast 2021 6 8 11 6 13 13 13 9 14 79 3 Forecast 2022 7 9 11 7 13 14 12 9 75 2 Forecast 2023 8 9 12 7 14 14 12 76 3 Forecast 2024 8 7 9 12 7 13 14 70 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.60 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 108.45 Catchment Adjustment 80.0% -2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 11 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 70 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 361 3436 THURLBEAR PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 26 28 30 30 29 30 27 30 30 31 30 207 Forecast 2020 27 29 30 30 28 31 27 30 30 32 208 1 Forecast 2021 28 29 30 30 29 31 26 30 31 207 1 Forecast 2022 28 29 29 31 29 31 26 31 206 1 Forecast 2023 28 29 30 31 28 31 27 204 1 Forecast 2024 28 27 30 30 31 28 32 206 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.57 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.05 Catchment Adjustment 316.7% 20 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 369 3437 TRULL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 35 36 38 38 38 39 38 38 35 38 37 263 Forecast 2020 36 38 38 38 37 38 38 38 35 38 262 -2 Forecast 2021 38 38 38 37 36 38 37 39 35 260 -2 Forecast 2022 38 38 37 36 36 38 37 39 261 -2 Forecast 2023 38 37 36 36 35 39 37 258 -2 Forecast 2024 38 37 36 36 36 35 39 257 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.11 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.34 Catchment Adjustment 154.7% 13 per year 2020 Determined AN * 38 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 411 3195 WEST MONKTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 58 64 75 59 60 61 60 60 59 60 54 414 Forecast 2020 60 66 77 60 61 62 62 61 60 60 426 7 Forecast 2021 62 68 79 61 62 64 61 62 60 449 6 Forecast 2022 63 70 80 62 64 64 62 62 464 7 Forecast 2023 65 71 81 64 63 65 62 471 6 Forecast 2024 68 67 73 83 65 64 66 486 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.45 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.76 Catchment Adjustment 70.5% -27 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

Town Area Summary: TAUNTON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 494 516 540 554 565 594 533 571 581 572 569 3985 Forecast 2020 502 524 544 559 564 595 533 570 584 576 3981 11 Forecast 2021 510 528 549 558 565 595 533 574 588 3962 13 Forecast 2022 513 533 548 559 565 595 538 578 3916 14 Forecast 2023 519 531 550 560 564 600 543 3867 16 Forecast 2024 515 518 532 549 560 569 606 3849 10 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.26 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.07 Catchment Adjustment 87.4% -75.5 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for the following primary schools: Blackbrook, Bishop Henderson, Holway Park, Halcon, Lyngford Park, Nerrols, North Town, Parkfield, Priorswood, St Andrews, St Georges, St James, Holy Trinity, Wellsprings.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 71 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 332 2330 TAUNTON BLACKBROOK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 32 34 34 34 34 36 35 34 35 35 34 243 Forecast 2020 32 34 34 34 34 35 35 34 35 35 242 -1 Forecast 2021 32 34 34 34 34 35 35 34 35 241 0 Forecast 2022 32 34 34 33 34 35 35 34 239 -1 Forecast 2023 32 33 34 33 34 35 35 236 -1 Forecast 2024 32 32 32 34 33 34 35 232 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.61 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 80.7% -8 per year 2020 Determined AN * 34 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 333 3439 TAUNTON BISHOP HENDERSON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 45 39 47 49 56 60 60 60 60 61 63 420 Forecast 2020 46 40 47 49 56 60 60 59 60 62 406 0 Forecast 2021 47 40 47 48 56 61 59 59 61 391 0 Forecast 2022 47 40 47 49 57 60 60 60 373 3 Forecast 2023 47 40 48 50 56 61 61 363 3 Forecast 2024 40 47 41 49 49 57 62 345 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.55 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.67 Catchment Adjustment 87.4% -7 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 337 2332 TAUNTON HOLWAY PARK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 41 44 37 40 54 60 47 45 58 47 36 347 Forecast 2020 42 46 38 42 53 61 47 46 59 47 355 4 Forecast 2021 44 47 40 41 54 60 48 47 59 349 3 Forecast 2022 44 49 39 42 54 61 49 46 340 3 Forecast 2023 46 48 40 42 55 62 48 341 3 Forecast 2024 45 45 49 40 43 56 62 340 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.47 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.55 Catchment Adjustment 58.7% -29 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 338 2024 TAUNTON MINERVA PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 12 19 15 16 18 20 15 19 17 24 21 134 Forecast 2020 12 19 15 16 18 19 14 18 16 23 124 -5 Forecast 2021 12 19 15 16 18 18 13 17 15 112 -4 Forecast 2022 12 19 15 16 17 17 12 16 112 -4 Forecast 2023 12 19 15 15 16 16 11 104 -4 Forecast 2024 13 12 19 14 14 15 15 102 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 95.80 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 21.4% -57 per year 2020 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 72 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 339 2229 TAUNTON LYNGFORD PARK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 35 38 39 36 31 37 31 36 41 41 39 256 Forecast 2020 36 39 40 37 33 36 31 36 42 42 257 4 Forecast 2021 37 40 41 39 34 36 31 37 43 261 6 Forecast 2022 38 41 43 40 35 36 31 38 264 6 Forecast 2023 39 43 45 41 35 36 32 271 7 Forecast 2024 44 41 45 46 42 36 37 291 8 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.42 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.65 Catchment Adjustment 60.4% -24 per year 2020 Determined AN * 39 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 340 2037 TAUNTON NERROLS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 21 24 26 28 30 4 7 0 0 0 0 41 Forecast 2020 23 26 28 30 30 8 9 2 0 0 79 10 Forecast 2021 25 28 30 30 30 11 11 3 0 115 8 Forecast 2022 27 30 30 30 31 13 13 4 151 8 Forecast 2023 30 30 30 31 32 15 15 183 9 Forecast 2024 30 30 30 31 32 33 17 203 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 105.64 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 108.20 Catchment Adjustment 4.1% 25 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes: As no unique catchment area has been set for this school the forecast of reception year pupils is based largely on the town area trend and may not fully reflect local demand for places.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 343 2216 TAUNTON NORTH TOWN PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 61 64 63 62 63 64 64 64 64 62 59 440 Forecast 2020 61 64 63 62 63 63 63 64 65 62 442 -1 Forecast 2021 61 64 63 62 62 63 63 64 65 442 -1 Forecast 2022 61 64 63 61 61 63 64 64 440 -1 Forecast 2023 61 64 62 61 61 63 64 436 -1 Forecast 2024 62 61 63 61 61 62 63 433 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.73 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 122.0% 11 per year 2020 Determined AN * 64 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 346 2228 TAUNTON PARKFIELD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 43 36 58 45 40 61 59 64 62 64 65 415 Forecast 2020 43 36 58 45 41 62 59 64 62 65 398 3 Forecast 2021 43 36 58 46 42 62 59 64 63 394 3 Forecast 2022 43 36 59 47 41 62 59 65 369 2 Forecast 2023 43 37 60 46 41 62 60 349 2 Forecast 2024 45 43 38 59 46 41 63 335 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.68 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 87.5% -7 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 73 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 347 2035 TAUNTON PRIORSWOOD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 21 21 17 23 17 25 13 24 19 22 28 148 Forecast 2020 21 21 17 23 16 24 12 22 19 22 138 -5 Forecast 2021 21 21 17 22 15 23 11 22 19 129 -4 Forecast 2022 21 21 16 21 14 22 11 22 127 -4 Forecast 2023 21 20 15 20 13 22 11 122 -4 Forecast 2024 22 20 19 14 19 13 22 129 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.26 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 38.3% -33 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 349 2002 TAUNTON ST JAMES PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 52 56 56 57 60 57 43 59 59 54 53 385 Forecast 2020 53 57 56 57 59 57 43 60 59 55 390 1 Forecast 2021 54 57 56 57 59 56 44 60 60 392 1 Forecast 2022 54 57 55 57 59 57 44 61 390 1 Forecast 2023 54 57 54 57 60 57 45 384 1 Forecast 2024 53 54 56 54 58 60 58 393 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.30 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.54 Catchment Adjustment 82.8% -12 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 350 3191 TAUNTON ST ANDREWS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 238 Forecast 2020 34 34 34 34 33 34 34 34 34 34 237 -1 Forecast 2021 34 34 34 33 33 34 34 35 34 237 0 Forecast 2022 34 34 33 33 33 34 34 35 236 -1 Forecast 2023 34 33 33 33 33 35 34 235 0 Forecast 2024 34 33 33 32 33 33 35 233 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.60 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.29 Catchment Adjustment 5.6% -4 per year 2020 Determined AN * 34 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 351 3438 TAUNTON ST GEORGES PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 25 27 28 28 29 30 30 30 33 30 32 214 Forecast 2020 25 27 28 28 29 30 31 30 34 30 212 2 Forecast 2021 25 27 28 28 29 31 31 31 34 212 2 Forecast 2022 25 27 28 28 30 31 32 31 207 2 Forecast 2023 25 27 28 29 30 32 32 203 2 Forecast 2024 25 25 27 29 29 31 32 198 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.12 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 4.5% 27 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 74 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 355 2027 TAUNTON HOLY TRINITY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 49 56 54 56 59 59 59 58 55 57 57 404 Forecast 2020 50 57 54 56 59 60 59 58 55 58 405 2 Forecast 2021 51 57 54 56 60 59 59 58 56 402 1 Forecast 2022 51 57 54 57 60 59 59 59 405 2 Forecast 2023 51 56 55 57 60 59 60 398 1 Forecast 2024 51 51 57 55 57 60 60 391 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.46 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.56 Catchment Adjustment 8.9% 54 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 357 2221 TAUNTON WELLSPRINGS PRIMARY

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 24 24 32 46 40 47 36 44 44 41 48 300 Forecast 2020 24 24 32 46 40 46 36 43 44 41 296 -2 Forecast 2021 24 24 32 46 39 46 35 43 44 285 -2 Forecast 2022 24 24 32 45 39 45 35 43 263 -2 Forecast 2023 24 24 31 45 38 45 35 242 -2 Forecast 2024 20 24 23 31 44 38 45 225 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.15 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 5.2% -13 per year 2020 Determined AN * 42 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 75 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 552 4004 WELLINGTON, COURT FIELDS Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 150 161 159 136 168 0 0 774 774 Forecast 2020 168 149 159 157 132 0 0 765 -9 765 Forecast 2021 153 167 147 157 153 0 0 777 -9 777 Forecast 2022 155 152 165 145 153 0 0 771 -9 771 Forecast 2023 179 154 150 163 141 0 0 787 -9 787 Forecast 2024 163 178 152 148 159 0 0 800 -9 800 Forecast 2025 159 162 176 150 144 0 0 791 -9 791 Forecast 2026 182 158 160 174 146 0 0 820 -9 820 Forecast 2027 161 181 156 158 170 0 0 826 -9 826 Forecast 2028 161 160 179 154 154 0 0 808 -9 808 Forecast 2029 167 160 158 177 150 0 0 813 -9 813 Forecast 2030 169 166 158 156 173 0 0 823 -9 823

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 97.8

Average transfer from primary (%): 93.7

2020 Determined AN * 172

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 76 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: WELLINGTON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 159 170 167 172 193 169 177 195 169 165 179 1247 Forecast 2020 166 180 172 174 194 172 177 194 167 163 1241 1 Forecast 2021 176 185 174 173 197 172 177 192 165 1250 0 Forecast 2022 181 187 173 175 197 173 175 190 1270 0 Forecast 2023 184 184 174 176 198 172 174 1262 1 Forecast 2024 182 182 182 175 176 197 170 1264 -5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.76 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.95 Catchment Adjustment 85.4% -28.5 per year Note:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 211 3181 LANGFORD BUDVILLE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 35664485867 42 Forecast 2020 3 5 6 6 4 4 8 4 8 5 39 -2 Forecast 2021 3 5 6 6 4 4 8 4 7 39 -1 Forecast 2022 3 5 6 6 4 4 8 3 36 -1 Forecast 2023 3 5 5 6 4 4 7 34 -2 Forecast 2024 4 3 4 5 6 4 3 29 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 95.03 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 87.0% -1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 284 3186 ROCKWELL GREEN PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 20 24 22 28 30 25 30 30 27 30 30 202 Forecast 2020 21 25 22 28 30 26 30 31 27 30 202 2 Forecast 2021 22 25 22 27 31 26 31 31 27 195 1 Forecast 2022 22 25 22 28 31 27 31 31 195 2 Forecast 2023 23 24 23 29 32 28 32 191 5 Forecast 2024 22 23 25 24 30 33 29 186 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.68 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.73 Catchment Adjustment 79.0% -6 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 291 2211 SAMPFORD ARUNDEL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 56468669676 48 Forecast 2020 5 7 4 6 8 6 6 8 5 7 46 -2 Forecast 2021 6 7 4 6 8 6 5 7 5 41 -2 Forecast 2022 6 7 4 6 8 5 4 7 41 -2 Forecast 2023 6 6 4 6 7 4 4 37 -3 Forecast 2024 5 5 6 4 5 6 4 35 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 93.48 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.57 Catchment Adjustment 420.0% 4 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 77 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 405 2226 WEST BUCKLAND PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 14 15 15 15 19 16 13 9 13 12 22 104 Forecast 2020 14 15 15 15 19 16 12 9 12 11 94 -3 Forecast 2021 14 15 15 15 19 15 12 8 11 95 -3 Forecast 2022 14 15 15 15 18 15 11 7 96 -3 Forecast 2023 14 15 14 14 18 14 10 99 -4 Forecast 2024 13 14 14 13 14 17 13 98 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.02 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 256.5% 9 per year 2020 Determined AN * 15 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

Town Area Summary: WELLINGTON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 117 120 120 117 132 118 120 142 115 110 114 851 Forecast 2020 123 128 125 119 133 120 121 142 115 110 860 6 Forecast 2021 131 133 127 119 135 121 121 142 115 880 5 Forecast 2022 136 135 126 120 136 122 121 142 902 4 Forecast 2023 138 134 128 121 137 122 121 901 5 Forecast 2024 139 137 133 129 121 137 121 917 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.26 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.60 Catchment Adjustment 77.5% -34.5 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Beech Grove, St Johns, Wellesley Park Primary and the new primary school at Longforth Farm.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 390 2224 WELLINGTON BEECH GROVE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 40 40 33 34 42 39 41 59 43 37 45 306 Forecast 2020 41 42 34 35 43 40 42 59 43 37 299 4 Forecast 2021 43 43 34 34 44 41 43 59 43 298 2 Forecast 2022 44 44 33 34 45 42 43 59 300 2 Forecast 2023 44 44 33 34 46 42 43 286 1 Forecast 2024 46 44 43 33 34 46 42 288 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.48 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.54 Catchment Adjustment 50.2% -37 per year 2020 Determined AN * 42 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 392 5201 WELLINGTON ST JOHN'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 19 22 24 22 44 27 26 28 26 26 24 201 Forecast 2020 20 24 25 22 45 28 27 29 26 26 203 4 Forecast 2021 22 25 26 22 46 29 28 29 26 206 4 Forecast 2022 23 25 25 22 47 30 28 29 206 1 Forecast 2023 24 24 25 22 48 30 28 201 1 Forecast 2024 25 23 23 25 21 48 30 195 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.57 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.42 Catchment Adjustment 36.3% -38 per year 2020 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 78 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 393 2005 WELLINGTON WELLESLEY PARK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 38 37 43 39 46 52 53 55 46 47 45 344 Forecast 2020 39 39 43 39 45 52 52 54 46 47 335 -3 Forecast 2021 41 39 43 38 45 51 50 54 46 327 -4 Forecast 2022 41 39 42 37 44 50 50 54 316 -4 Forecast 2023 41 37 42 36 43 50 50 299 -4 Forecast 2024 41 39 36 41 35 43 49 284 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.48 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.25 Catchment Adjustment 198.7% 20 per year 2020 Determined AN * 56 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 394 9999 WELLINGTON new school @ LONGFORTH FARM (to open 09.20)

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 20 21 20 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Forecast 2020 23 23 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 1 Forecast 2021 25 26 24 25 0 0 0 0 0 49 3 Forecast 2022 28 27 26 27 0 0 0 0 80 5 Forecast 2023 29 29 28 29 0 0 0 115 7 Forecast 2024 27 31 31 30 31 0 0 150 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 107.49 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 108.66 Catchment Adjustment 13.6% 21 per year 2020 Determined AN * n/a Notes: This is a new primary school which is scheduled to open as part of the Longforth Farm development in September 2020. In the absence of a unique catchment area for the new school the forecast of reception year pupils is based largely on the area trend and may not reflect the local demand for places.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 79 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 556 4504 WELLS, THE BLUE Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 248 233 267 261 268 98 97 1472 1277 Forecast 2020 259 252 236 269 259 121 86 1483 7 1275 Forecast 2021 250 263 255 238 267 117 107 1497 7 1274 Forecast 2022 217 254 266 257 236 121 103 1455 7 1231 Forecast 2023 233 221 257 268 255 107 106 1448 7 1235 Forecast 2024 230 237 224 259 266 115 94 1426 7 1217 Forecast 2025 247 233 239 226 257 120 101 1424 5 1203 Forecast 2026 230 250 235 241 224 116 106 1402 5 1180 Forecast 2027 237 233 252 237 239 101 102 1401 5 1197 Forecast 2028 257 240 235 254 235 108 89 1417 5 1219 Forecast 2029 216 260 242 237 252 106 95 1407 5 1206 Forecast 2030 235 219 262 244 235 114 93 1401 5 1194

16+ Forecast 45.2% 17+ Forecast 88.0%

Secondary Migration: 101.5

Average transfer from primary (%): 103.5

2020 Determined AN * 270 (30 for 6th form)

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 80 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: WELLS

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 163 151 201 188 188 209 198 212 192 227 240 1466 Forecast 2020 170 159 210 196 194 218 205 209 193 232 1447 33 Forecast 2021 178 166 216 202 203 225 203 210 198 1457 32 Forecast 2022 185 177 220 209 208 221 206 215 1456 31 Forecast 2023 194 183 227 215 205 223 211 1458 32 Forecast 2024 192 200 190 234 212 208 228 1464 25 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.92 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.52 Catchment Adjustment 92.1% -15 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 99 3305 CHEWTON MENDIP PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 7 11 15 13 8 17 21 14 15 23 24 122 Forecast 2020 8 11 16 13 9 18 22 14 15 23 114 3 Forecast 2021 8 12 17 14 10 19 22 13 15 110 3 Forecast 2022 9 13 17 15 11 19 22 13 110 3 Forecast 2023 10 14 18 16 11 18 22 109 3 Forecast 2024 13 11 15 19 16 11 18 103 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.56 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 106.36 Catchment Adjustment 107.0% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 20 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 102 3492 CHILCOMPTON, ST VIGOR & ST JOHN PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 25 24 29 29 31 30 30 29 32 32 30 214 Forecast 2020 26 25 30 30 31 30 31 29 31 33 215 2 Forecast 2021 27 25 30 30 31 31 32 29 32 215 3 Forecast 2022 28 26 30 30 32 31 32 30 211 3 Forecast 2023 29 27 29 31 33 30 33 212 3 Forecast 2024 27 30 27 30 31 33 31 209 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.21 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.99 Catchment Adjustment 95.5% -1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 116 2019 COXLEY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 7 6 6 7 10 9 4 9 4 6 10 52 Forecast 2020 7 7 8 8 11 10 4 10 4 6 53 4 Forecast 2021 8 8 8 9 12 10 4 10 4 57 2 Forecast 2022 8 9 8 9 11 10 4 10 61 0 Forecast 2023 8 9 8 9 11 10 4 59 0 Forecast 2024 8 8 8 8 9 11 10 62 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.21 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 109.72 Catchment Adjustment 66.7% -3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 81 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 186 2032 HORRINGTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 14 15 16 17 17 14 16 16 14 17 22 116 Forecast 2020 15 15 17 17 17 15 16 16 14 17 112 1 Forecast 2021 15 16 17 17 18 15 16 15 14 112 0 Forecast 2022 16 16 17 18 18 15 16 15 115 1 Forecast 2023 17 16 18 18 17 15 16 117 1 Forecast 2024 17 17 17 18 18 17 14 118 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.41 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.21 Catchment Adjustment 182.4% 7 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 278 2057 PRIDDY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 4 2 7 6 2 5 7 4 2 12 7 39 Forecast 2020 4 2 7 6 2 5 7 3 2 12 37 -1 Forecast 2021 4 2 7 6 2 5 7 3 2 32 0 Forecast 2022 4 2 7 6 2 4 7 3 31 -1 Forecast 2023 4 2 7 6 2 4 7 32 0 Forecast 2024 4 4 2 7 5 2 4 28 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.86 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 65.5% -3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 406 3119 WESTBURY SUB MENDIP ST LAWRENCE'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 5 3 4 9 7 4 6 6 5 7 14 49 Forecast 2020 5 3 4 9 7 4 6 6 4 7 43 -1 Forecast 2021 5 3 4 9 7 4 6 5 4 39 -1 Forecast 2022 5 4 4 9 7 4 5 5 38 0 Forecast 2023 5 4 4 9 7 3 5 37 -1 Forecast 2024 3 5 4 4 9 6 3 34 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.08 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.17 Catchment Adjustment 53.8% -5 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 423 2085 WOOKEY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 10 10 18 12 12 14 14 16 8 12 16 92 Forecast 2020 10 11 18 12 12 15 15 16 8 12 90 2 Forecast 2021 11 11 18 12 13 16 15 15 8 97 1 Forecast 2022 11 12 18 13 13 16 15 15 102 2 Forecast 2023 12 12 19 13 13 16 15 100 2 Forecast 2024 12 12 13 20 14 13 16 100 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.93 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.28 Catchment Adjustment 79.4% -3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 82 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

Town Area Summary: WELLS

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 91 80 106 95 101 116 100 118 112 118 117 782 Forecast 2020 95 85 110 101 105 121 104 115 115 122 783 23 Forecast 2021 100 89 115 105 110 125 101 120 119 795 24 Forecast 2022 104 95 119 109 114 122 105 124 788 23 Forecast 2023 109 99 124 113 111 127 109 792 24 Forecast 2024 108 113 104 128 110 115 132 810 19 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.72 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.03 Catchment Adjustment 92.1% -8 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for the following schools: St Cuthberts Infants, St Cuthberts Junior, St Joseph & St Teresa and Stoberry Park Primary

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 395 3115 WELLS ST CUTHBERT'S INFANTS Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 45 31 51 42 39 45 41 125 Forecast 2020 47 34 53 45 41 47 133 7 Forecast 2021 50 36 56 47 43 146 7 Forecast 2022 52 39 58 49 146 7 Forecast 2023 55 41 60 156 7 Forecast 2024 55 57 43 155 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 104.29 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.90 Catchment Adjustment 60.4% -28 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 396 3114 WELLS ST CUTHBERT'S JUNIOR Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 53 37 48 45 183 Forecast 2020 43 52 38 50 183 4 Forecast 2021 48 42 54 40 184 4 Forecast 2022 45 47 43 56 191 4 Forecast 2023 50 44 49 45 188 4 Forecast 2024 62 49 45 51 207 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.73 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 103.33 Catchment Adjustment N/A 2020 Determined AN * 45 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 397 3361 WELLS ST JOSEPH & ST THERESA PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 19 20 21 21 23 22 22 20 25 22 24 158 Forecast 2020 20 21 21 22 23 23 21 19 26 23 157 2 Forecast 2021 21 21 21 22 24 23 20 20 27 157 2 Forecast 2022 21 21 21 23 24 22 21 21 153 2 Forecast 2023 21 21 22 23 23 23 22 155 2 Forecast 2024 21 21 22 21 22 24 24 155 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.21 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.94 Catchment Adjustment 20.0% 20 per year 2020 Determined AN * 22 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 83 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 400 2333 WELLS STOBERRY PARK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 27 29 34 32 39 49 37 45 50 48 48 316 Forecast 2020 28 30 36 34 41 51 40 44 51 49 310 10 Forecast 2021 29 32 38 36 43 54 39 46 52 308 11 Forecast 2022 31 35 40 37 45 53 41 47 298 10 Forecast 2023 33 37 42 40 44 55 42 293 11 Forecast 2024 33 35 39 45 39 46 57 294 10 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.34 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.84 Catchment Adjustment 98.4% -1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 44 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 84 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Upper School (13-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

MINEHEAD, WEST SOMERSET COLLEGE Net Total Secondary Forecast: 539 4291 Total Migration Pupils Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs (Yrs 9- (Yrs 9- Year 9 10 11 12 13+ 9-13) 11) 11) Baseline 2019 201 196 190 110 47 744 587 Forecast 2020 196 199 189 89 81 754 -9 584 Forecast 2021 201 194 192 84 65 736 -9 587 Forecast 2022 237 199 187 81 62 765 -9 623 Forecast 2023 213 235 192 79 59 778 -9 640 Forecast 2024 224 211 228 81 58 801 -9 663 Forecast 2025 241 222 204 96 59 821 -9 667 Forecast 2026 201 239 215 86 70 811 -9 654 Forecast 2027 241 199 232 90 63 825 -9 672 Forecast 2028 191 239 192 97 66 785 -9 622 Forecast 2029 219 189 232 81 71 792 -9 640 Forecast 2030 201 217 182 97 59 757 -9 600

16+ Forecast 42.0% (Base) 17+ Forecast 73.5%

Upper School Migration: 95.5

Average transfer from middle (%): 95.2

2020 Determined AN * 356 (20 for 6th form)

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Middle School (9-12) Catchment Summary Forecast Base Year: 2019

Total Pupils Net Middle aged pupils: Catchment Summary (Yrs 5-8) Migration Pupils by NCY Year 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2019 230 252 214 206 902 Forecast 2020 240 227 252 211 930 -6 Forecast 2021 259 238 227 249 973 -5 Forecast 2022 216 256 238 224 934 -6 Forecast 2023 259 214 256 235 965 -5 Forecast 2024 205 256 214 253 929 -6 Forecast 2025 236 203 256 211 908 -5 Forecast 2026 216 233 203 253 906 -6 Forecast 2027 207 214 233 200 856 -5 Forecast 2028 192 204 214 230 841 -6 Forecast 2029 190 204 211 Forecast 2030 190 201

Notes: The above data shows a summary of the pupils in years 5-8 in the Minehead/Williton planning area.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 85 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Middle School (9-12) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

MINEHEAD MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 496 4290 (Yrs 5-8) Migration Pupils by NCY Year 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2019 150 159 145 128 582 Forecast 2020 152 147 161 143 603 -3 Forecast 2021 153 150 149 159 611 -2 Forecast 2022 137 150 152 147 586 -3 Forecast 2023 176 135 152 150 613 -2 Forecast 2024 128 173 137 150 588 -3 Forecast 2025 158 126 175 135 594 -2 Forecast 2026 138 155 128 173 594 -3 Forecast 2027 140 136 157 126 559 -2 Forecast 2028 125 137 138 155 554 -3 Forecast 2029 123 139 136 Forecast 2030 125 137

Middle Migration: 99.1

Average transfer from primary (%): 100.0

2020 Determined AN * 169

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

WILLITON, DANESFIELD MIDDLE

Total Pupils Net Middle Forecast: 499 4553 (Yrs 5-8) Migration Pupils by NCY Year 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2019 80 93 69 78 320 Forecast 2020 88 80 91 68 327 -3 Forecast 2021 106 88 78 90 362 -3 Forecast 2022 79 106 86 77 348 -3 Forecast 2023 83 79 104 85 352 -3 Forecast 2024 77 83 77 103 341 -3 Forecast 2025 78 77 81 76 314 -3 Forecast 2026 79 78 75 80 313 -3 Forecast 2027 68 79 76 74 297 -3 Forecast 2028 67 68 77 75 287 -3 Forecast 2029 67 66 76 Forecast 2030 65 65

Middle Migration: 99.0

Average transfer from primary (%): 98.0

2020 Determined AN * 123

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 86 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: MINEHEAD

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 116 131 133 151 127 174 140 153 152 746 Forecast 2020 118 134 134 154 127 177 138 153 749 4 Forecast 2021 121 135 136 155 130 176 137 734 4 Forecast 2022 122 137 135 158 129 176 735 3 Forecast 2023 124 138 138 158 128 686 5 Forecast 2024 129 123 141 138 158 689 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.31 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.54 Catchment Adjustment 98.5% -2 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 130 3314 CUTCOMBE FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 2 3 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 23 Forecast 2020 2 3 6 5 5 5 5 5 25 0 Forecast 2021 2 3 6 5 5 5 5 26 0 Forecast 2022 2 3 6 5 5 5 24 0 Forecast 2023 2 3 6 5 5 21 0 Forecast 2024 2 2 3 6 5 18 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 133.3% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 140 2022 DUNSTER FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 23 25 25 27 25 29 29 28 29 140 Forecast 2020 24 26 25 27 26 30 29 28 140 2 Forecast 2021 25 26 25 28 27 29 29 138 1 Forecast 2022 25 26 26 29 27 29 137 2 Forecast 2023 25 27 27 29 27 135 2 Forecast 2024 25 26 28 27 29 135 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.64 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.20 Catchment Adjustment 200.0% 13 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 150 3048 EXFORD FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 6 5 4 7 10 6 4 9 3 32 Forecast 2020 6 5 4 7 10 7 4 9 37 1 Forecast 2021 6 5 4 7 11 7 4 33 1 Forecast 2022 6 5 4 8 11 7 35 1 Forecast 2023 6 5 5 8 11 35 1 Forecast 2024 3 6 6 5 8 28 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.62 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 122.2% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 87 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 276 3344 PORLOCK ST DUBRICIUS FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 9 14 15 12 8 16 9 13 16 62 Forecast 2020 9 14 15 12 8 16 8 12 56 -2 Forecast 2021 9 14 15 12 8 16 7 58 -1 Forecast 2022 9 14 14 12 8 15 63 -2 Forecast 2023 9 14 14 12 7 56 -1 Forecast 2024 13 8 14 14 11 60 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.64 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 119.0% 2 per year 2020 Determined AN * 18 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 363 3359 TIMBERSCOMBE FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 9 7 4 6 4 10 4 9 9 36 Forecast 2020 9 7 4 6 4 10 4 9 33 0 Forecast 2021 9 7 4 6 4 10 4 28 0 Forecast 2022 9 7 3 6 4 10 30 -1 Forecast 2023 9 7 3 6 4 29 0 Forecast 2024 9 8 7 3 6 33 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.33 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 113.0% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

Town Area Summary: MINEHEAD

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 67 77 79 94 75 108 89 89 92 453 Forecast 2020 68 79 80 97 74 109 88 90 458 3 Forecast 2021 70 80 82 97 75 109 88 451 3 Forecast 2022 71 82 82 98 74 110 446 3 Forecast 2023 73 82 83 98 74 410 3 Forecast 2024 76 73 83 83 99 414 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.28 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.22 Catchment Adjustment 80.5% -19 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for St Michaels and Minehead County First schools.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 235 2023 MINEHEAD, ST MICHAEL'S FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 25 29 29 30 25 31 28 29 32 145 Forecast 2020 25 29 29 31 24 31 28 30 144 1 Forecast 2021 25 29 30 31 24 31 29 145 2 Forecast 2022 25 30 30 31 23 32 146 1 Forecast 2023 26 30 30 31 24 141 2 Forecast 2024 29 26 30 29 32 146 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.35 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.45 Catchment Adjustment 95.8% -1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 88 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 236 2048 MINEHEAD FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 42 48 50 64 50 77 61 60 60 308 Forecast 2020 43 50 51 66 50 78 60 60 314 2 Forecast 2021 45 51 52 66 51 78 59 306 1 Forecast 2022 46 52 52 67 51 78 300 2 Forecast 2023 47 52 53 67 50 269 1 Forecast 2024 47 47 53 54 67 268 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.25 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.65 Catchment Adjustment 73.9% -18 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 89 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: WILLITON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 63 64 76 78 76 86 81 108 90 441 Forecast 2020 63 66 76 80 78 85 81 108 432 1 Forecast 2021 65 66 78 82 78 85 81 404 2 Forecast 2022 65 68 80 81 78 85 392 1 Forecast 2023 67 70 80 80 79 376 2 Forecast 2024 65 69 69 80 80 363 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.44 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.76 Catchment Adjustment 86.7% -11 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 265 3086 OLD CLEEVE FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 17 20 20 23 24 24 19 32 25 124 Forecast 2020 17 20 20 24 25 23 19 32 123 1 Forecast 2021 17 20 21 25 25 23 19 113 2 Forecast 2022 17 21 22 24 25 23 115 1 Forecast 2023 18 22 22 24 25 111 2 Forecast 2024 17 19 21 22 24 103 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.43 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.09 Catchment Adjustment 153.8% 7 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 382 3490 WATCHET KNIGHTS TEMPLAR FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 32 20 37 33 35 38 38 43 43 197 Forecast 2020 32 21 37 33 36 38 37 43 187 0 Forecast 2021 33 21 37 34 36 37 37 181 0 Forecast 2022 33 21 38 34 35 37 165 0 Forecast 2023 33 22 38 33 35 161 0 Forecast 2024 27 34 22 37 33 153 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.67 Catchment Adjustment 87.8% -4 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 416 3123 WILLITON ST PETER'S FIRST Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 14 24 19 22 17 24 24 33 22 120 Forecast 2020 14 25 19 23 17 24 25 33 122 2 Forecast 2021 15 25 20 23 17 25 25 110 2 Forecast 2022 15 26 20 23 18 25 112 2 Forecast 2023 16 26 20 23 19 104 2 Forecast 2024 21 16 26 21 23 107 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.13 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.13 Catchment Adjustment 59.4% -14 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 90 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 588 4006 WINCANTON, KING ARTHUR'S Total Net Total Pupils Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration (Yrs 7-11) Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 82 71 56 55 62 0 0 326 326 Forecast 2020 93 79 69 54 54 0 0 349 -8 349 Forecast 2021 91 90 77 67 53 0 0 379 -8 379 Forecast 2022 97 88 88 75 66 0 0 415 -8 415 Forecast 2023 88 94 86 86 74 0 0 429 -8 429 Forecast 2024 74 85 92 84 85 0 0 420 -8 420 Forecast 2025 73 71 83 90 83 0 0 400 -8 400 Forecast 2026 71 70 69 81 89 0 0 380 -8 380 Forecast 2027 75 68 68 67 80 0 0 358 -8 358 Forecast 2028 75 72 66 66 66 0 0 345 -8 345 Forecast 2029 73 72 70 64 65 0 0 344 -8 344 Forecast 2030 74 70 70 68 63 0 0 345 -8 345

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 98.0

Average transfer from primary (%): 41.8

2020 Determined AN * 136

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 593 5400 SEXEYS SCHOOL, BRUTON Total Net Total Pupils Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration (Yrs 7-11) Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 109 110 100 101 82 52 46 600 502 Forecast 2020 108 108 115 90 98 47 44 610 -9 519 Forecast 2021 105 107 113 105 87 51 40 608 -9 517 Forecast 2022 108 104 112 103 102 48 43 619 -9 529 Forecast 2023 106 107 109 102 100 55 40 619 -9 524 Forecast 2024 105 105 112 99 99 57 46 622 -9 520 Forecast 2025 104 104 110 102 96 58 48 622 -9 516 Forecast 2026 103 103 109 100 99 53 49 616 -9 513 Forecast 2027 107 102 108 99 97 60 45 617 -9 513 Forecast 2028 107 106 107 98 96 56 50 620 -9 513 Forecast 2029 104 106 111 97 95 52 47 611 -9 512 Forecast 2030 106 103 111 101 94 49 43 606 -9 514

16+ Forecast 19.0% 17+ Forecast 84.0%

Secondary Migration: 97.8

Average transfer from primary (%): 55.3

2020 Determined AN * 81 (56 boarding, 25 day pupils, 55 6th form)

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes: The above figures include boarding and day pupils The forecast of Year 12 is calculated from the combined year 11 roll of Ansford, Sexeys and King Arthurs schools

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 91 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: WINCANTON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 169 171 174 177 167 182 172 192 202 195 194 1304 Forecast 2020 173 176 178 181 169 184 175 193 201 191 1294 7 Forecast 2021 177 179 182 181 171 184 177 191 198 1284 3 Forecast 2022 180 183 181 184 173 184 176 187 1268 3 Forecast 2023 181 179 181 182 172 182 174 1251 -10 Forecast 2024 186 180 177 182 181 171 176 1253 -10 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.63 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.05 Catchment Adjustment 83.5% -34.25 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 70 5200 BRUTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): FO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 19 29 27 29 27 34 31 30 36 32 34 224 Forecast 2020 21 31 28 30 28 35 31 31 36 32 223 4 Forecast 2021 23 32 29 32 29 35 32 31 36 224 5 Forecast 2022 24 33 30 33 29 35 32 31 223 3 Forecast 2023 24 34 31 32 29 35 32 217 1 Forecast 2024 27 25 33 31 32 29 34 211 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.95 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.56 Catchment Adjustment 91.2% -3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 42 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 93 5202 CHARLTON HORETHORNE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 4 4 4 3 4 5 6107 811 51 Forecast 2020 44 4 34561077 42 -1 Forecast 2021 4 4 43456106 38 -1 Forecast 2022 4 4 4 3 4 5 6 9 35 -1 Forecast 2023 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 29 -1 Forecast 2024 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 27 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.82 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 150.0% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 178 3061 HENSTRIDGE ST NICHOLAS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 8 13 11 14 16 15 11 14 17 14 18 105 Forecast 2020 8 14 12 15 17 16 12 14 17 14 105 4 Forecast 2021 8 14 12 15 17 16 12 14 16 102 -1 Forecast 2022 8 14 12 15 16 16 12 14 99 -1 Forecast 2023 8 13 12 15 16 16 12 92 -1 Forecast 2024 9 8 12 12 15 16 15 87 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.53 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.73 Catchment Adjustment 70.8% -5 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 92 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 188 3065 HORSINGTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 13 13 15 13 10 13 6 15 15 13 15 87 Forecast 2020 13 13 15 13 9 13 6 14 15 12 82 -3 Forecast 2021 13 13 15 12 9 13 5 13 14 81 -4 Forecast 2022 13 13 14 12 9 12 5 12 77 -3 Forecast 2023 13 12 13 12 8 12 4 74 -4 Forecast 2024 15 12 12 13 11 8 11 82 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 95.06 0 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 284.2% 9 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 229 2047 MILBORNE PORT PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 24 22 24 19 23 22 26 26 23 27 25 172 Forecast 2020 25 23 25 19 24 23 27 26 22 27 168 2 Forecast 2021 26 24 26 19 25 23 28 26 22 169 3 Forecast 2022 27 25 26 20 26 23 28 26 174 3 Forecast 2023 28 24 27 20 27 23 28 177 2 Forecast 2024 29 28 25 27 20 27 23 179 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.09 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.77 Catchment Adjustment 70.1% -10 per year 2020 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 359 3105 ABBAS & TEMPLECOMBE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 17 12 14 18 16 10 18 21 21 14 17 117 Forecast 2020 17 12 14 18 16 9 18 21 20 14 116 -2 Forecast 2021 17 12 14 17 15 9 18 20 20 113 -3 Forecast 2022 17 12 14 16 15 9 17 20 103 -2 Forecast 2023 17 11 13 16 15 8 17 97 -3 Forecast 2024 14 17 10 13 16 14 8 92 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.38 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 92.4% -1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

Town Area Summary: WINCANTON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 84 78 79 81 71 83 74 76 83 87 74 548 Forecast 2020 85 79 80 83 71 83 75 77 84 85 558 3 Forecast 2021 86 80 82 83 72 83 76 77 84 557 4 Forecast 2022 87 82 81 85 74 84 76 75 557 4 Forecast 2023 87 81 81 84 73 83 76 565 -4 Forecast 2024 88 86 81 82 84 73 81 575 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.96 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.47 Catchment Adjustment 75.4% -26.25 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Wincanton County Primary and Our Lady's Primary schools.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 93 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 417 3488 WINCANTON OUR LADY'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 24 23 23 24 25 22 20 21 23 25 20 156 Forecast 2020 24 24 23 25 24 22 20 21 23 24 159 -1 Forecast 2021 25 24 24 24 25 21 20 21 23 158 0 Forecast 2022 25 25 23 25 26 21 20 20 160 1 Forecast 2023 25 24 24 25 26 20 20 164 -1 Forecast 2024 25 24 25 24 25 26 19 168 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.28 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.09 Catchment Adjustment 22.0% 24 per year 2020 Determined AN * 20 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 418 2081 WINCANTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 60 55 56 57 46 61 54 55 60 62 54 392 Forecast 2020 61 55 57 58 47 61 55 56 61 61 399 4 Forecast 2021 61 56 58 59 47 62 56 56 61 399 4 Forecast 2022 62 57 58 60 48 63 56 55 397 3 Forecast 2023 62 57 57 59 47 63 56 401 -3 Forecast 2024 64 62 56 58 59 47 62 408 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.24 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.21 Catchment Adjustment 53.4% -50 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 94 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 562 4355 WIVELISCOMBE, KINGSMEAD Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 181 188 197 177 165 0 0 908 908 Forecast 2020 193 183 190 194 176 0 0 936 0 936 Forecast 2021 194 195 185 187 193 0 0 953 0 953 Forecast 2022 183 196 196 182 185 0 0 941 -2 941 Forecast 2023 192 185 197 193 180 0 0 946 -2 946 Forecast 2024 154 194 186 194 191 0 0 918 -2 918 Forecast 2025 168 156 195 183 192 0 0 893 -2 893 Forecast 2026 146 170 157 192 181 0 0 845 -2 845 Forecast 2027 147 148 171 154 190 0 0 809 -2 809 Forecast 2028 127 149 149 168 152 0 0 744 -2 744 Forecast 2029 147 129 150 146 166 0 0 736 -2 736 Forecast 2030 136 149 130 147 144 0 0 705 -2 705

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 99.6

Average transfer from primary (%): 95.8

2020 Determined AN * 195

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 95 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: WIVELISCOMBE

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 126 144 126 151 153 179 163 201 197 203 201 1297 Forecast 2020 129 147 128 152 157 178 162 203 193 202 1247 0 Forecast 2021 134 151 131 157 155 178 163 202 191 1177 4 Forecast 2022 140 153 137 157 153 179 162 200 1141 4 Forecast 2023 140 159 136 158 155 177 161 1086 5 Forecast 2024 138 146 156 134 156 154 175 1059 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.06 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.11 Catchment Adjustment 100.6% 0.75 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 35 2018 BISHOPS LYDEARD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 11 14 12 20 15 27 16 20 25 29 23 155 Forecast 2020 12 14 13 20 16 27 15 20 24 29 151 -1 Forecast 2021 13 15 14 21 15 26 16 21 23 136 1 Forecast 2022 15 16 16 21 14 27 17 21 132 4 Forecast 2023 15 18 16 21 15 28 17 130 4 Forecast 2024 15 17 18 15 22 16 28 131 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.52 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.76 Catchment Adjustment 59.4% -10 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 115 2334 COTFORD ST LUKE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 23 23 21 33 35 30 32 49 45 42 38 271 Forecast 2020 23 23 21 33 35 30 31 49 45 42 265 -1 Forecast 2021 25 25 22 34 36 31 31 49 45 248 4 Forecast 2022 27 26 23 35 37 31 31 49 232 4 Forecast 2023 27 27 24 36 37 30 31 212 2 Forecast 2024 22 27 26 23 36 37 30 201 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.49 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.28 Catchment Adjustment 87.7% -4 per year 2020 Determined AN * 42 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 125 3313 CROWCOMBE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 5 6 5 7 6 5 6 9 13 4 8 51 Forecast 2020 5 6 5 7 7 5 7 10 11 5 52 2 Forecast 2021 5 6 5 8 7 5 8 9 11 53 1 Forecast 2022 5 6 6 8 7 6 7 9 49 1 Forecast 2023 5 7 5 8 8 5 7 45 0 Forecast 2024 5 6 7 5 8 7 5 43 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.90 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 209.1% 3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 96 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 139 3042 DULVERTON ALL SAINTS INFANTS Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 20 11 13 10 14 15 15 44 Forecast 2020 20 11 13 10 14 14 38 -1 Forecast 2021 20 11 13 10 13 36 -1 Forecast 2022 21 11 13 10 34 0 Forecast 2023 21 11 13 45 0 Forecast 2024 18 21 10 49 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.73 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.67 Catchment Adjustment 80.6% -3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes: Data excludes the nursery class provision

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 487 4277 DULVERTON JUNIOR Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 16 13 16 31 76 Forecast 2020 15 16 12 16 59 -1 Forecast 2021 14 15 15 12 56 -1 Forecast 2022 12 15 14 15 56 -1 Forecast 2023 10 13 14 14 51 0 Forecast 2024 13 10 12 14 49 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.57 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 98.46 Catchment Adjustment N/A 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 218 2205 LYDEARD ST LAWRENCE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 10 12 9 9 12 14 10 15 10 14 12 87 Forecast 2020 10 12 9 9 12 14 10 15 10 13 83 -1 Forecast 2021 10 12 9 9 11 14 10 15 10 78 -1 Forecast 2022 10 12 9 9 10 14 10 14 78 -2 Forecast 2023 10 12 8 9 10 14 10 73 -1 Forecast 2024 10 10 12 8 9 10 13 72 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.24 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 137.9% 3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 233 2206 MILVERTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 22 25 21 27 23 26 26 31 33 31 28 198 Forecast 2020 23 26 21 27 25 27 27 32 33 30 201 4 Forecast 2021 24 26 21 29 26 28 27 32 32 195 3 Forecast 2022 24 26 23 30 27 27 27 31 191 2 Forecast 2023 24 28 24 31 27 27 26 187 3 Forecast 2024 25 26 29 25 30 27 26 188 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.70 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.26 Catchment Adjustment 215.9% 13 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 97 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 264 3290 OAKE, BRADFORD & NYNEHEAD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 10 7 10 13 14 14 18 17 12 18 18 111 Forecast 2020 10 8 10 13 14 14 17 16 12 18 104 -2 Forecast 2021 11 8 10 13 14 13 16 16 12 94 -2 Forecast 2022 11 8 10 13 13 12 16 16 88 -2 Forecast 2023 11 8 10 12 12 12 16 81 -2 Forecast 2024 8 11 8 9 11 12 12 71 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.49 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.04 Catchment Adjustment 108.1% 1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 313 2212 STAWLEY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 5 9 9 5 8 9 8 12 8 10 6 61 Forecast 2020 5 9 9 5 8 9 8 12 8 10 60 0 Forecast 2021 5 9 9 5 7 9 8 12 8 58 -1 Forecast 2022 5 9 9 5 7 9 8 12 59 0 Forecast 2023 5 9 8 5 7 9 8 51 -1 Forecast 2024 7 5 9 8 5 7 9 50 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.18 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 164.7% 3 per year 2020 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 315 3101 STOGUMBER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 47751756986 42 Forecast 2020 4 7 7 5 1 6 5 6 9 8 40 -1 Forecast 2021 4 7 7 5 1 6 5 6 9 39 0 Forecast 2022 4 7 7 4 1 6 5 6 36 -1 Forecast 2023 4 7 7 4 1 6 5 34 0 Forecast 2024 7 4 6 7 4 1 6 35 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.09 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 92.0% -1 per year 2020 Determined AN * 7 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 422 2227 WIVELISCOMBE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 16 30 19 22 25 32 27 26 29 31 31 201 Forecast 2020 17 31 20 23 25 32 27 27 29 31 194 2 Forecast 2021 17 32 21 23 25 32 27 27 29 184 1 Forecast 2022 18 32 21 22 25 32 27 27 186 -1 Forecast 2023 18 32 21 22 25 32 27 177 0 Forecast 2024 22 19 31 21 21 25 32 171 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.0 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.8 Catchment Adjustment 83.7% -4 per year 2020 Determined AN * 34 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 98 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Secondary School (11-18) Catchment Analysis Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: YEOVIL SECONDARY SUMMARY Total Net Total Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2019 566 533 544 540 477 0 0 2660 2660 Forecast 2020 536 562 531 538 537 0 0 2704 -15 2704 Forecast 2021 582 532 560 525 535 0 0 2734 -15 2734 Forecast 2022 576 578 530 554 522 0 0 2761 -15 2761 Forecast 2023 587 572 576 524 551 0 0 2811 -15 2811 Forecast 2024 595 583 570 570 521 0 0 2839 -15 2839 Forecast 2025 562 591 581 564 567 0 0 2865 -15 2865 Forecast 2026 594 558 589 575 561 0 0 2877 -15 2877 Forecast 2027 571 590 556 583 572 0 0 2872 -15 2872 Forecast 2028 545 567 588 550 580 0 0 2830 -15 2830 Forecast 2029 531 541 565 582 547 0 0 2767 -15 2767 Forecast 2030 544 527 539 559 579 0 0 2749 -15 2749

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 96.25

Average transfer from primary (%): 95.8

Notes: The above data represents the combined roll of Buckler's Mead, Preston and Westfield secondary schools.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 99 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Secondary Forecast: 567 4451 YEOVIL, BUCKLERS MEAD Total Total Net Pupils Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration (Yrs 7 - Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11) Baseline 2019 170 160 154 169 150 0 0 803 803 Forecast 2020 164 172 159 151 166 0 0 812 -5 812 Forecast 2021 186 166 171 156 148 0 0 827 -5 827 Forecast 2022 179 188 165 168 153 0 0 853 -5 853 Forecast 2023 182 181 187 162 165 0 0 876 -5 876 Forecast 2024 190 184 180 184 159 0 0 897 -5 897

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 31.30 Secondary Migration: 98.8

2020 Determined AN * 204

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 570 4455 YEOVIL, PRESTON Total Total Net Pupils Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration (Yrs 7 - Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11) Baseline 2019 193 168 201 195 194 0 0 951 951 Forecast 2020 180 193 167 199 194 0 0 933 -4 933 Forecast 2021 189 180 192 165 198 0 0 924 -4 924 Forecast 2022 193 189 179 190 164 0 0 915 -4 915 Forecast 2023 197 193 188 177 189 0 0 944 -4 944 Forecast 2024 196 197 192 186 176 0 0 947 -4 947

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 33.20 Secondary Migration: 99.0

2020 Determined AN * 210

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 573 4201 YEOVIL, WESTFIELD Total Total Net Pupils Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration (Yrs 7 - Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11) Baseline 2019 203 205 189 176 133 0 0 906 906 Forecast 2020 193 203 204 188 176 0 0 964 -2 964 Forecast 2021 207 193 202 203 188 0 0 993 -2 993 Forecast 2022 205 207 192 201 203 0 0 1007 -2 1007 Forecast 2023 208 205 206 191 201 0 0 1011 -2 1011 Forecast 2024 208 208 204 205 191 0 0 1016 -2 1016

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 35.50 Secondary Migration: 99.5

2020 Determined AN * 204

Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 100 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2019

Area: YEOVIL

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 538 532 556 589 624 597 632 616 609 606 560 4244 Forecast 2020 545 540 565 595 632 596 624 619 602 608 4276 3 Forecast 2021 553 549 570 603 632 588 628 613 602 4236 3 Forecast 2022 561 554 578 605 622 592 621 613 4185 2 Forecast 2023 568 562 579 598 625 585 621 4138 5 Forecast 2024 536 577 564 571 602 620 587 4057 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.97 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.30 Catchment Adjustment 93.0% -42 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 24 2300 BARWICK & STOFORD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 9 7 10 8 11 10 14 11 12 13 8 79 Forecast 2020 9 7 10 8 11 10 14 11 12 13 79 0 Forecast 2021 9 7 10 8 11 10 14 11 12 76 0 Forecast 2022 9 7 10 8 11 10 14 11 71 0 Forecast 2023 9 7 10 7 11 10 14 68 -1 Forecast 2024 8 9 7 9 7 11 10 61 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.37 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 68.0% -4 per year 2020 Determined AN * 11 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 103 3277 CHILTHORNE DOMER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 16 17 18 19 21 21 22 18 26 17 24 149 Forecast 2020 17 18 20 21 22 21 21 18 25 17 145 1 Forecast 2021 18 20 21 22 23 20 21 17 25 149 1 Forecast 2022 19 21 22 24 22 20 20 17 146 2 Forecast 2023 20 22 23 23 22 19 20 149 1 Forecast 2024 20 21 23 22 23 21 20 150 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.16 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 107.14 Catchment Adjustment 388.9% 13 per year 2020 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 143 2302 EAST COKER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 27 22 30 37 33 23 37 38 35 35 37 238 Forecast 2020 27 22 30 37 35 23 35 37 34 35 236 -2 Forecast 2021 27 22 30 39 35 21 34 36 34 229 -2 Forecast 2022 27 22 32 39 33 20 33 36 215 -2 Forecast 2023 29 25 34 38 32 19 33 210 4 Forecast 2024 23 32 27 33 37 33 19 204 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.74 Catchment Adjustment 154.7% 10 per year 2020 Determined AN * 38 Notes:

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Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 408 3285 WEST COKER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 441077467872 41 Forecast 2020 44107746687 45 -1 Forecast 2021 4 4 10 7 6 4 6 6 8 47 -1 Forecast 2022 4 4 10 7 6 4 5 6 42 -1 Forecast 2023 4 4 9 7 6 3 5 38 -2 Forecast 2024 4 4 3 9 7 5 3 35 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.22 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 64.1% -4 per year 2020 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

Town Area Summary: YEOVIL

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 482 482 488 518 552 539 553 542 528 534 489 3737 Forecast 2020 488 489 495 522 557 538 548 547 523 536 3771 5 Forecast 2021 495 496 499 527 557 533 553 543 523 3735 5 Forecast 2022 502 500 504 527 550 538 549 543 3711 3 Forecast 2023 506 504 503 523 554 534 549 3673 3 Forecast 2024 482 511 504 498 528 550 535 3608 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.01 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.16 Catchment Adjustment 89.5% -57.75 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for the following primary schools: Birchfield, Holy Trinity, Huish, Kingfisher, Milford Inf, Milford Junior, Pen Mill, Reckleford, Oaklands, Primrose Lane, Preston, St Gildas and St Michaels.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 432 2320 YEOVIL BIRCHFIELD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 47 49 49 54 60 59 60 59 60 60 58 416 Forecast 2020 48 50 50 55 60 58 58 59 59 62 411 -1 Forecast 2021 49 51 51 55 60 56 58 58 59 397 -2 Forecast 2022 50 52 51 55 59 56 57 58 388 -1 Forecast 2023 51 52 51 52 59 55 57 377 -3 Forecast 2024 48 52 52 48 52 58 55 365 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.17 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.01 Catchment Adjustment 55.7% -40 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 435 3489 YEOVIL HOLY TRINITY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 52 53 56 59 59 60 60 60 61 58 60 418 Forecast 2020 53 54 57 59 60 61 60 61 61 59 421 4 Forecast 2021 54 55 57 60 61 61 61 61 62 423 4 Forecast 2022 55 55 58 61 60 62 61 61 418 2 Forecast 2023 55 55 58 61 60 62 61 412 0 Forecast 2024 53 55 56 57 61 60 62 404 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.56 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.09 Catchment Adjustment 234.0% 32 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

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Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 436 2309 YEOVIL HUISH PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 54 58 56 60 60 58 59 61 60 61 57 416 Forecast 2020 54 58 56 60 60 58 58 61 59 61 417 -2 Forecast 2021 54 58 56 60 60 57 58 60 59 410 -2 Forecast 2022 54 58 56 60 59 57 57 60 407 -2 Forecast 2023 54 58 56 59 59 56 57 399 -2 Forecast 2024 53 54 58 55 59 58 56 393 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.43 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 75.2% -19 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 438 2311 YEOVIL MILFORD INFANTS Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 94 81 83 85 90 95 102 287 Forecast 2020 95 82 85 86 92 96 274 4 Forecast 2021 96 84 86 88 93 267 4 Forecast 2022 98 85 88 89 262 4 Forecast 2023 99 87 89 275 4 Forecast 2024 94 101 88 283 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.67 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.47 Catchment Adjustment 92.5% -7 per year 2020 Determined AN * 100 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 439 2310 YEOVIL MILFORD JUNIOR Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 104 105 105 102 416 Forecast 2020 108 103 105 106 422 6 Forecast 2021 102 107 103 106 418 6 Forecast 2022 99 101 107 104 411 6 Forecast 2023 93 98 101 108 400 4 Forecast 2024 93 92 98 102 385 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 105.54 Catchment Adjustment N/A 2020 Determined AN * 105 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 440 3494 YEOVIL OAKLANDS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 50 53 57 60 58 58 61 60 63 63 57 420 Forecast 2020 50 53 57 60 58 59 60 61 63 63 424 1 Forecast 2021 50 53 57 60 59 58 61 61 63 419 1 Forecast 2022 50 53 57 61 58 59 61 61 410 1 Forecast 2023 50 53 58 60 59 59 61 400 1 Forecast 2024 49 50 54 57 61 59 59 389 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.28 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 56.1% -43 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

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Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 442 2312 YEOVIL PEN MILL INFANTS Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 36 36 32 34 52 39 41 132 Forecast 2020 36 36 32 34 53 37 124 -1 Forecast 2021 36 36 32 35 51 118 -1 Forecast 2022 36 36 33 33 102 -1 Forecast 2023 36 37 31 104 -1 Forecast 2024 29 37 35 101 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.71 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 61.9% -21 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 445 2314 YEOVIL RECKLEFORD INFANTS Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 18 15 15 19 22 21 21 64 Forecast 2020 18 15 15 19 23 19 61 -1 Forecast 2021 18 15 15 20 21 56 -1 Forecast 2022 18 15 16 18 49 -1 Forecast 2023 18 16 14 48 -1 Forecast 2024 14 19 14 47 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.30 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 40.1% -25 per year 2020 Determined AN * 28 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 434 2319 YEOVIL ST MICHAELS JUNIOR Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 62 70 75 67 274 Forecast 2020 50 65 68 74 257 -12 Forecast 2021 44 53 63 67 227 -12 Forecast 2022 60 47 51 62 220 -12 Forecast 2023 45 63 45 50 203 -6 Forecast 2024 39 48 61 44 192 -6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 83.22 Catchment Adjustment N/A 2020 Determined AN * 81 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 443 3283 YEOVIL PRESTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 57 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 61 80 58 439 Forecast 2020 57 60 60 60 60 60 61 58 60 79 438 -3 Forecast 2021 57 60 60 60 60 61 59 57 59 416 -3 Forecast 2022 57 60 60 60 61 59 58 56 414 -3 Forecast 2023 57 60 60 61 59 58 57 412 -3 Forecast 2024 58 57 60 61 59 58 58 411 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.23 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 80.6% -14 per year 2020 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 104 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 446 2016 YEOVIL KINGFISHER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 22 24 26 28 30 29 30 30 0 0 0 119 Forecast 2020 24 26 28 30 30 29 32 31 0 0 152 5 Forecast 2021 26 28 30 30 30 31 33 32 0 186 6 Forecast 2022 28 30 30 30 31 32 34 33 220 6 Forecast 2023 30 30 30 31 32 33 35 221 6 Forecast 2024 30 30 30 31 33 33 34 221 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.41 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 107.69 Catchment Adjustment 4.5% 25 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes: As no unique catchment area has been set for this school the forecast of reception year pupils is based largely on the town area trend and may not fully reflect local demand for places.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 447 3487 YEOVIL ST GILDA'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 26 27 27 29 31 30 30 32 32 32 30 217 Forecast 2020 26 27 27 29 31 30 31 33 31 32 217 1 Forecast 2021 26 27 27 29 31 31 32 32 31 213 1 Forecast 2022 26 27 27 29 32 32 31 32 210 1 Forecast 2023 26 27 27 30 33 31 31 205 1 Forecast 2024 24 26 27 28 31 32 31 199 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.55 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Catchment Adjustment 5.0% 27 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2019

School: 448 2017 YEOVIL PRIMROSE LANE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 19 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2019 26 26 27 30 30 30 29 14 16 0 0 119 Forecast 2020 27 28 28 30 30 31 30 15 17 0 153 4 Forecast 2021 29 29 28 30 31 32 31 16 17 185 4 Forecast 2022 30 29 28 31 31 33 32 16 200 3 Forecast 2023 30 29 29 31 32 34 32 217 3 Forecast 2024 29 30 30 29 32 33 34 217 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.10 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.86 Catchment Adjustment 5.0% 27 per year 2020 Determined AN * 30 Notes: As no unique catchment area has been set for this school the forecast of reception year pupils is based largely on the town area trend and may not fully reflect local demand for places.

Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 105 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 2

SPECIAL EDUCATION PROVISION

Forecast Base Year: 2019

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 (Baseline) (Forecast) Number of Pupils SPECIAL SCHOOLS 7000 The Mendip School 135 7003 Elmwood School 83 7006 Sky College 66 7007 Fairmead School 100 7013 Penrose School 51 7014 Selworthy School 114 7016 Fiveways Special School 80 7018 Avalon School 60 7019 Critchill Special School 64 SPECIAL SCHOOL TOTAL 753 810 850 900 940 970

PUPIL REFERRAL UNITS 1109 Tor School 14 1112 South Somerset Partnership School 21 1114 Taunton Deane Partnership College 11 1115 The Bridge School: Sedgemoor 10 TOTAL 56 60 60 60 60 60

TOTAL SPECIAL SCHOOL & PRU PROVISION 809 870 910 960 1000 1030

Notes: 1 The Baseline roll shown above is the actual on roll total of puils returned by each establishment in the October School Census. The nature of PRU provision in particular is that numbers tend to fluctuate during the year. The aim of providing a forecast of pupils on roll for special schools and PRUs is to illustrate the number of pupils on roll in Somerset and thereby provide a complete roll for all state-funded schools in Somerset (hence no forecast data is provided for individual establishments). The above data is not included in the County Forecast figures at the start of this document.

2 Pupils attending LA designated special needs resource bases, which are attached to a small number of schools, are included with the school roll and are NOT included in the above totals.

3 The Special School forecast totals are calculated as an increasing percentage of the total school roll in Somerset each year in line with recent evidence of the number on roll. A change in the level of provision (eg the commisioning of additional in-county specialist places) might be expected to bring a change in the number of pupils shown above especially if if were to reduce the number of pupils placed in other LAs or in the independent sector, 4 These figures exclude Somerset pupils placed in other LA or independent schools

5 To avoid double counting, dually registered pupils are counted at their main establishment only and are not shown in the totals above. For PRUs in particular, dual registered pupils represent a signficant part of the roll at any point in time. The above figures should not be regarded as the complete client group for these establishments.

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APPENDIX A: BASIS OF SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST CALCULATIONS

1 SOURCES OF DATA 1.1 The baseline for each forecast is the actual pupil number data is taken from the DFE October School Census. The forecast of future reception year groups, those children currently of pre-school age, is based on data obtained from Health Authority records.

1.2 Historical School Census number on roll data for the previous 4 years (in addition to the current year roll) forms part of the forecast calculations for all schools as a matter of routine. Further historical number on data is available for all schools for at least the last 10 years is available if required.

1.3 The LA's central pupil database (Capita ONE) provides information to support the forecasting process (eg it enables pupil movements between schools to be monitored, and provides comprehensive data on pupils' home addresses), along with data from the DFE School Census. Where required these datasets are interrogated to provide bespoke data to provide a better understanding of the school roll data. There is an open invitation to schools to comment on the LA produced forecasts and to help inform future forecasts by contributing their local knowledge.

2 PROCESSING OF THE RAW DATA 2.1 Pre-school health authority data are adjusted to reflect any difference between the size of year groups on the school roll and the corresponding year groups provided by the health authority records - ie to take account of parental preference in/out of the school as well as options out of the state sector (eg to independent and elective home education).

2.2 Data for the resident pre-school population provided from the health authority data is only available for the first four years of the forecast. To provide a full 5 year forecast of reception year pupils the fifth year of reception pupils is an arithmetical calculation rather than a forecast based on verified data.

2.3 All reception year pupils are included in the school/County actual number on roll totals even if the parents have opted for deferred entry. (In practice nearly 100% of pupils are admitted at the start of the autumn term). The forecasts all show the complete reception year group for each school, no attempt is made to forecast deferred entry.

2.4 The adjusted pre-school data and the actual number on roll data are rolled forward with migration added/subtracted as appropriate to each school area. Migration (sometime referred to as the survival rate) refers to the net change between age groups as they move through the school from one census date to the next. It therefore covers all pupils who join or leave a school roll for factors such as moves into/out of area; transfer to other establishment outside of the normal transfer process; parents opting to home educate their child. Therefore, the forecast level of migration at any school or area is a calculation based on factors such as:- - past gains/losses in the area; - confirmed housing developments that are likely to take place within the duration of the forecasts (see below);

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- options in/out from/to other schools (including independent); - confirmed school re-organisation etc; - any other known relevant factor.

2.5 Primary school forecasts are combined into planning areas with sub-totals shown for each area. These form the basis of the middle/secondary school forecasts with numbers projected forward and adjusted at transfer in line with recent parental preference. In areas served by the 2-tier system the transfer adjustment occurs between years 6 and 7, in 3-tier areas transfer adjustments are made between years 4 and 5 and again between years 8 and 9.

2.6 School 6th form forecasts (where they exist) are calculated on the assumption that the existing provision will be maintained. The forecast roll is calculated from the recent retention rate of pupils from year 11 into year 12, and again with a further adjustment for year 13 to reflect those who do not return for a second year of 6th form study.

2.7 The forecast data is calculated independent of any outside influence to give the best indication possible of future trends based on the information that is known at the time to enable managers to plan accordingly. As such they are not subject to manipulation to make a case in favour of a specific course of action (eg the closure of a small school). When completed the forecast data is made available to schools and the local authority to assist in planning of school provision. No forecast will ever be 100% accurate and the margin of error increases over time. At a local level forecast data can become outdated by unforeseen events (see paragraph 4.6 below) or when circumstances change.

3. NEW HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS: 3.1 Where major developments of family housing takes place there is an expectation that there will be some gains of new pupils. By its very nature the local planning process is a consultative one which identifies sites for potential housing developments – not all of which will ultimately proceed or may not be completed within the timeframe of the forecasts. The school forecasts of migration include a contribution to reflect the major housing developments where full planning approval has either been granted, or where outline planning permission has been granted and there is a reasonable expectation that development will commence within the next 5 years (as supported by the district planning authority 5-year housing supply data). The mix of accommodation between family houses and those aimed a single people is also particularly relevant to the likely yield of pupils.

3.2 Research has been undertaken locally which has demonstrated that whilst migration in to new housing can occur in all year groups it is most noticeable at key stage 1 and for pre-school age children. The full yield of pupils is not usually felt immediately with further children born after the first occupancy of the housing (such children would be identified as part of the pre-school age population data obtained from the health authority and would be reflected in the forecast data in the normal way when they reach school age).

3.3 In addition, whilst there are moves of children into new housing developments these may not all be ‘new’ pupils, since it is expected that some will be existing families re- locating into the housing. There is therefore a downside as well as an upside in that pupils may leave one area of the County to move to another area.

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4 FORECASTING ASSUMPTIONS & POSSIBLE VARIATIONS: 4.1 The forecast for individual schools always tries to predict what is likely to happen in practice in terms of the parental demand for places, the number of pupils in the catchment area, and the accommodation limits of the school. This means that the forecasts may not reflect the full demand for places where it is evident that a school is over-subscribed due to applications from outside the school catchment area.

4.2 Consistent with established best practice, County level forecast data is produced separately from the individual school level data at the start of the forecasting exercise. This provides benchmark data to verify the school level data and help avoid serious over or under forecasting. This ensures that the final school level forecast data follows the trend established in the County level forecast. At County level the total forecast of pupils from year R to 13 in mainstream schools is invariably accurate to within +/- 0.5% one year ahead.

4.3 As part of validation of the forecast data LA level trends are compared to the latest DFE National Pupil Projections, which are in turn derived from the forward trends set out in ONS mid-year population projections. Over the years the trends of pupil numbers in Somerset has generally followed the national trends.

4.4 In addition, during the calculation process the forecast number on roll data is monitored at district and county level against ONS migration data and historical number on roll. This provides a further level of validation to avoid over/under stating the net gains from migration, options in/out county at primary/secondary transfer or in the size of the pre- school population.

4.5 As noted above the forecast calculations include some forecast gains from migration based on the anticipated new house building set out in the District Councils’ 5-year housing supply schedule. Analysis of the total dwellings shows that the number of completions coming forward in the early years of the 5-year schedule is substantially higher than the recent rate of completion in Somerset (about 2000 dwellings per year) and substantially lower in the later years. This suggests that the number of completions in the 5-year supply may be skewed towards the early years and that not all the sites may come forward at the rate intended. Even if the rate of completion is optimistic there is no way of identifying which sites may be delayed. This would not change the overall forecast trend for the LA which is largely based on the historical trend but could have an impact on local school/area totals.

4.6 School level forecasts are subject to a greater degree of variation due to factors such as parental preference (particularly at years R or at transfer age groups), an un-even pattern of migration (due to unforeseen one-off events etc), and choices made at 16+. Where there are major housing developments taking place a major deviation from the expected rate of build could have implications for the rate of migration. For the large number of small schools in Somerset in particular, quite small variations in terms of numbers of pupils can be quite important in terms of the proportion of the total school roll.

4.6 No forecast will ever be completely accurate: they all have a margin for error, which increases the further ahead that the forecast extends. In addition, there are factors the impact of which cannot be included in the forecasts, since either they cannot be foreseen, are generally un-confirmed or are largely speculative. Therefore, the school forecasts could be subject to variation in the following circumstances:

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- A major change in parental preference; - eg following an OfSTED inspection; - Future re-organisation of school provision; any change in school provision (eg new school places, the closure of existing provision, or the change of age range of a school) will not in itself change the number of pupils in an area but there would be the potential for a change in the distribution of pupils between schools. Therefore, it is possible that in fulfilling its role in school place planning, the local authority may bring forward an area-based response to changes in pupil numbers which may change the structure of school provision in an area. Such a change may not fully align to the current forecast data for an individual school; - Changes in 16+ provision: Any changes to the availability of 6th form provision would be a potential gain or loss of students, including to/from local FE colleges. - Housing developments the forecasts at school and area level include forecast gains from major new housing developments that have full planning permission or those without outline planning permission that are reasonably certain to commence (see above). It is not possible to include gains from a new housing development coming forward that is outside the current 5-year housing land supply and this can create a ‘cliff-edge’ in terms of the number of additional houses that are likely to be built within the forecast period if there is some uncertainty about a development coming forward. - Legislative/regulatory change: eg changes to 16+ provision; eligibility for school transport; revisions to the admissions code; - Alterations to schools’ admission criteria: Whether this is a permanent change or the provision of a bulge class for a single year, changes to the admission arrangements for a school can have a knock-on effect for other schools.

4.7 The forecast calculations are determined by the user and not system driven. The process is designed to be flexible so that it can be adapted to reflect current parental preference and respond to changes in legislation etc.

4.8 Hinkley Point C – Construction of the Hinkley Point C power station is now well underway. This is a major construction project that is expected to involve a total of 25000 individual job roles by the time that construction is completed later this decade. There will be an on-site workforce of many thousands and whilst some will be sourced from the existing local population, many will be employed on short term contracts with workers and their families relocating to the area utilising housing in the rented or open market sector. The general impact of migration gains on school rolls will be kept under review although there is a lack of hard data on the number of pupils linked directly or indirectly to HPC construction. Being as there is no single provision of school places for HPC workforce families, many children may be absorbed into the roll of existing schools in the normal way. To the extent that there has been a gain of families during the construction phase it must be considered a possibility that in the medium to long term there will be some loss of school children as production winds down.

4.9 Areas of potential weakness –There is a recognition that the changes in pupil numbers seen from year to year does not conform to a firm set of rules in that the same inputs will not always lead to a given outcome. It is therefore considered that the calculation of school and area forecasts is generally as much art as it is science. All forecasts have a margin of error which recognises that they are susceptible to unforeseeable events and even anticipated events can influence pupil numbers in a

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way that is not fully quantifiable in advance. In addition, there are other factors which can complicate forecasting calculations in a local area: - movement of pupils across the County boundary or to the independent sector; there is generally less data available regarding pupils that are educated outside of the Somerset state-funded sector. This can be a weakness where these have an impact on the state-funded schools in the County. - School catchment areas: some schools in Somerset have been established to serve the urban expansion of town areas but without a unique catchment area. Instead they are located within the catchment of another school which brings an increased level of risk to the forecasts for the schools concerned since it can act to hide any bulge year groups which often occur in a small area. - variation in post-16 staying on rates; the change in the attractiveness of school 6th forms viz-a-viz other 16+ options is one that can have a major impact on a school roll. The forecast of 6th form rolls is based on existing retention rates but over the course of a forecast these have a greater margin for error than the roll up to year 11 simply because of the existence of alternative study options. - New school provision: When a new school or significant expansion is commissioned this is factored into the forecast calculations reflecting the expected availability of the new places. However, any subsequent delays in the completion of new building projects which sees the new provision effectively put back by a full academic year, can have a clear impact on other local schools if the pupils that were intended to attend the new provision are accommodated elsewhere.

4.10 There is probably a tendency towards what can be considered ‘optimism bias’ in the calculation of school forecasts. In any year there is always the likelihood that a small number of schools will suffer an un-expected loss of pupils (eg following a poor OfSTED inspection or the loss of a major employer from an area). By their nature these events are unforeseeable and cannot be built into the forecast process.

5. PUPILS OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF THE FORECAST DATA 5.1 For the avoidance of doubt the following groups do not appear on the roll of a maintained school or academy, so they are not included in the individual school forecast figures or in the local authority level totals: - Pupils in independent schools or elective home education; - SEN pupils placed in independent and non-maintained schools; - Pupils receiving early years provision in the private and voluntary sectors; - Children who are receiving education outside of the state-funded school sector (eg in a further education college).

5.2 In addition, the following who are classed as being on the roll of a state-funded school are not part of the school and area forecasts as they are not in mainstream provision: - pupils on the roll of the LA’s special schools; - pupils solely registered at a pupil referral unit; - children on the roll of pre-school nursery classes (even where the provision is run by the school).

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APPENDIX B: GUIDANCE ON USE OF THE FORECAST DATA

Use of the Data: Forecasts of future pupil numbers all Somerset primary, middle and secondary schools are calculated annually based on data returned in the October School Census. New forecast data is then made available during the spring term.

As well as being used by the local authority for planning purposes, the data is made available to schools and may be a useful starting point to help in the planning of school class/year group organisation eg where there are bulge year groups. In addition, with school budgets linked to pupil numbers, the data can be used to help inform budgetary planning on a 3-5 year timescale. No forecast will ever be completely accurate the figures are intended to provide the best possible indication of future numbers that is available. The margin of error increases the further ahead that the forecast extends.

Underlying Principles: As far as possible the forecasts reflect the current trend in take-up of places and known events, rather than being a speculative exercise. The calculations are guided by the Somerset policy of ‘local schools for local children’. As such the forecasts attempt to reflect parental preference for a school, but where there are a substantial numbers of pupil options into a school from other areas, the admission year group forecasts are not generally set above the capacity of the school to accommodate those pupils.

The forecasts essentially project the number on roll based on the fluctuations in the size of year groups resulting from changes in the local birth rate, as well as the likely movement of pupils into and out of a school.

Factors included: The main inputs in the calculation of forecasts are as follows: • The baseline data for the forecast figures is the actual roll taken from the DFE October School Census. • Pre-school numbers at primary schools are based upon data provided by the local health authority regarding the number of children living in the local area. The health authority figures are adjusted to reflect past and present take-up of places by local pupils and trends in parental preference. • An allowance for net migration is made to reflect all movements into/out of a school in other than the admission year or at 16+: The forecast of migration attempts to reflect factors such as new housing developments and the historical pattern of local migration. To that end an allowance would be made for gains from major new housing developments that have received full planning permission as well as those with outline planning permission where local intelligence and the planning authority housing land trajectory indicate that it will come forward within the next 5 years. • The number of pupils transferring to middle and secondary schools is adjusted to take account of expected options to/from other schools/areas. This is based on historical parental preference and the availability of places. • 6th form forecasts calculations are based on the recent take-up of places from year 11. • Confirmed major changes in the provision of school places. Eg the opening of new provision or the change in age range of a school.

Factors outside the scope of the forecasts: Events that are largely speculative or where the timing is uncertain cannot be included in the forecast calculations until they are confirmed. Therefore, the following would be outside of the scope of the forecasts:

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• changes in the pattern of parental preferences in the area; • the influence of future changes in local policy or national legislation, eg changes to the availability of school transport or revisions to the admissions code; • future changes in the provision of school places locally: As well as changes promoted by the local authority in its statutory role of providing sufficient school places, changes can be made by other local schools (including the independent and FE sector), or the establishment of new parent-led free school provision which may impact on the number of pupils that attend a local school. • new housing developments which do not have planning permission: Where development of a site is not confirmed by the existence of planning permission, it is not possible to factor into the forecast data any the effects of that housing. • other ‘one-off’ or unforeseeable events.

Admissions to School: For all schools a key figure is the number of pupils in the admission group each year. The forecast calculations are undertaken based on data available at the end of the autumn term and do NOT reflect the number of preferences made by parents for admission the following September. More up-to-date admission year figures will become available to schools during the spring and summer term each year. There may be instances where the forecast admission year group exceeds the school’s published Admission Number including as a result of admission appeals. In such circumstances, it is advisable not to make definite plans on the basis that numbers will reach the forecast figure until places are confirmed.

The forecast number of admissions for later years will be used to help plan future provision by identifying the number of school places that need to be provided. Where there is a need for additional places, it is possible that the strategic response across an area may not precisely follow the detailed forecast data for individual schools.

Area Summary Data: The number of pupils attending a school cannot be considered in complete isolation from what is happening at other nearby schools. For this reason, a summary forecast for all primary schools in an area and for larger secondary school areas is included to help put a school’s data into local context.

In addition, where there is more than one school of the same age range serving a community (eg the town areas of the County), a summary forecast for the total of all town area schools is included. The forecasts for individual schools in such an area are based on the pattern of parental preferences in the area in recent years - subject to the limits of accommodation, as well as the trend in the number of pupils locally.

Feedback/Revision of Data: The forecast data is updated annually although in exceptional circumstances it may be considered necessary to re-calculate forecasts eg to reflect any significant new factors that have been confirmed since the forecasts were calculated. Schools are welcome to supply feedback, or additional local information at any time of the year which can be fed into the next update of forecast data.

PMIT_ACV/School Population Forecast 2019 Part1.doc March 2019

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Primary Schools Page(s)

Abbas & Templecombe ...... 93 Ash ...... 60 Ashcott ...... 64 Ashill ...... 24 Axbridge ...... 29

Baltonsborough ...... 46 Barwick & Stoford ...... 101 Bawdrip, Kingsmoor ...... 12 Beckington ...... 41 Berkley ...... 41 Berrow...... 20 Bishops Hull ...... 68 Bishops Lydeard ...... 96 Bowlish...... 57 Brent Knoll ...... 20 Bridgwater College Academy (Years R-6)...... 18 Bridgwater Eastover ...... 16 Bridgwater Hamp Infants ...... 16 Bridgwater Hamp Academy (Junior) ...... 16 Bridgwater Northgate ...... 17 Bridgwater St John & St Francis ...... 17 Bridgwater St Joseph's ...... 17 Bridgwater St Mary's ...... 17 Bridgwater Somerset Bridge ...... 18 Bridgwater Westover Green ...... 16 Bridgwater Willowdown ...... 15 Bridgwater - Primary Summary ...... 15 Broadway Neroche ...... 24 Bruton ...... 92 Buckland St Mary ...... 24 Burnham on Sea Infants ...... 21 Burnham on Sea St Andrew's ...... 22 Burnham on Sea St Joseph's ...... 22 Burnham on Sea / Highbridge - Primary Summary ...... 21 Butleigh ...... 46

Cannington ...... 12 Castle Cary ...... 7 Catcott...... 64 Chard Avishayes ...... 26 Chard Manor Court ...... 26 Chard The Redstart ...... 26 Chard - Primary Summary ...... 25 Charlton Horethorne ...... 92 Charlton Mackrell ...... 49 Cheddar ...... 29 Cheddon Fitzpaine ...... 68 Chewton Mendip ...... 81 Chilcompton, St Vigor and St John ...... 81 Chilthorne Domer ...... 101 Churchstanton ...... 68 Coleford, Bishop Henderson ...... 53 Combe St Nicholas ...... 25 Cotford St Luke ...... 96 Coxley ...... 81 Creech St Michael ...... 69

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INDEX OF FORECASTS Primary Schools (cont'd) Page(s)

Crewkerne Ashlands ...... 36 Crewkerne St Bartholomew's ...... 36 Crewkerne - Primary Summary ...... 36 Croscombe...... 56 Crowcombe ...... 96 Curry Mallet...... 49 Curry Rivel ...... 49 Cutcombe...... 87

Ditcheat ...... 7 Doulting St Aldhelm's ...... 56 Draycott & Rodney Stoke ...... 29 Dulverton All Saint’s Infants ...... 97 Dulverton Junior ...... 97 Dunster ...... 87

East Brent ...... 31 East Coker ...... 101 East Huntspill ...... 20 Enmore ...... 12 Evercreech ...... 7 Exford ...... 87

Frome Avanti Park (Years R-6) ...... 44 Frome Christchurch ...... 43 Frome Hayesdown ...... 43 Frome St John's ...... 44 Frome St Louis ...... 44 Frome Trinity ...... 43 Frome Vallis ...... 44 Frome - Primary Summary ...... 43

Glastonbury St Benedict's ...... 47 Glastonbury St John's ...... 46

Hambridge ...... 50 Haselbury Plucknett ...... 35 Hatch Beauchamp ...... 69 Hemington...... 53 Henstridge St Nicholas ...... 92 Highbridge Churchfield ...... 22 High Ham ...... 50 Hinton St George ...... 35 Horrington ...... 82 Horsington...... 93 Huish Episcopi ...... 50

Ilchester ...... 60 Ilminster Greenfylde ...... 37 Ilton, St Peter’s and St Mary’s ...... 37

Keinton Mandeville ...... 8 Kilmersdon ...... 53 Kingsbury Episcopi ...... 50 Kingston St Mary ...... 69

Langford Budville ...... 77 Leigh-on-Mendip ...... 41 Long Sutton...... 51 Lovington ...... 8 Lydeard St Lawrence ...... 97 Lympsham ...... 31 Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 115

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INDEX OF FORECASTS Primary Schools (cont'd) Page(s)

Mark ...... 31 Martock ...... 60 Meare ...... 47 Mells ...... 42 Merriott ...... 35 Middlezoy ...... 51 Milborne Port ...... 93 Milverton ...... 97 Minehead First School ...... 89 Minehead St Michael's ...... 88 Minehead - First Summary ...... 88 Misterton ...... 36 Montacute, All Saint's ...... 61

Nether Stowey ...... 13 North Cadbury ...... 8 North Curry ...... 69 North Newton ...... 13 North Petherton ...... 13 Norton Fitzwarren ...... 70 Norton St Philip ...... 42 Norton Sub Hamdon ...... 61 Nunney...... 42

Oake, Bradford & Nynehead ...... 98 Oakhill ...... 56 Old Cleeve ...... 90 Othery ...... 51 Otterhampton ...... 13

Pawlett ...... 21 Porlock St Dubricius ...... 88 Priddy ...... 82 Puriton...... 14

Queen Camel, The Countess Gytha ...... 8

Rockwell Green ...... 77 Rode ...... 42 Ruishton ...... 70

Sampford Arundel ...... 77 Shepton Beauchamp ...... 37 Shepton Mallet Infants ...... 58 Shepton Mallet St Paul's ...... 58 Shepton Mallet - Primary Summary ...... 57 Shipham ...... 30 Somerton King Ina Infants ...... 51 Somerton King Ina Junior ...... 52 South Petherton Infants ...... 61 South Petherton Junior ...... 61 Spaxton ...... 14 Staplegrove ...... 70 Stawley ...... 98 Stogumber ...... 98 Stogursey ...... 14 Stoke St Gregory ...... 70 Stoke St Michael ...... 57 Stoke Sub Hamdon, The Castle ...... 62

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INDEX OF FORECASTS Primary Schools (cont'd) Page(s)

St Benedicts, Midsomer Norton ...... 54 Street Brookside ...... 65 Street Elmhurst ...... 65 Street Hindhayes ...... 65 Street - Primary Summary ...... 65

Tatworth ...... 25 Taunton Bishop Henderson ...... 72 Taunton Blackbrook ...... 72 Taunton Holway Park ...... 72 Taunton Holy Trinity ...... 75 Taunton Lyngford Park ...... 73 Taunton Minerva ...... 72 Taunton Nerrols ...... 73 Taunton North Town ...... 73 Taunton Parkfield ...... 73 Taunton Priorswood ...... 74 Taunton St Andrew's...... 74 Taunton St George's ...... 74 Taunton St James ...... 74 Taunton Wellsprings ...... 75 Taunton - Primary Summary...... 71 Thurlbear...... 71 Timberscombe ...... 88 Tintinhull St Margaret’s ...... 62 Trull ...... 71

Upton Noble ...... 57

Walton ...... 64 Watchet, Knights Templar ...... 90 Weare ...... 32 Wedmore ...... 32 Wellington Beech Grove ...... 78 Wellington new school @ Longforth Farm ...... 79 Wellington St John's ...... 78 Wellington Wellesley Park ...... 79 Wellington - Primary Summary ...... 78 Wells St Cuthbert's Infants ...... 83 Wells St Cuthbert's Junior ...... 83 Wells St Joseph and St Teresa ...... 83 Wells Stoberry Park ...... 84 Wells - Primary Summary ...... 83 Wembdon St George's...... 14 West Buckland ...... 78 Westbury sub Mendip St Lawrence ...... 82 West Chinnock ...... 62 West Coker ...... 102 West Huntspill ...... 21 West Monkton ...... 71 West Pennard ...... 47 Westonzoyland ...... 15 Williton St Peter's ...... 90 Wincanton County Primary ...... 94 Wincanton Our Lady's...... 94 Wincanton - Primary Summary ...... 93 Winsham ...... 25 Wiveliscombe ...... 98 Wookey ...... 82 Woolavington ...... 15

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INDEX OF FORECASTS Primary Schools (cont'd) Page(s)

Yeovil Birchfield ...... 102 Yeovil Holy Trinity ...... 102 Yeovil Huish ...... 103 Yeovil Kingfisher ...... 105 Yeovil Milford Infants ...... 103 Yeovil Milford Junior ...... 103 Yeovil Oaklands ...... 103 Yeovil Pen Mill ...... 104 Yeovil Preston ...... 104 Yeovil Primrose Lane ...... 105 Yeovil Reckleford ...... 104 Yeovil St Gilda’s ...... 105 Yeovil St Michael’s ...... 104 Yeovil - Primary Summary ...... 102

Middle Schools Blackford, Hugh Sexey's ...... 28 Cheddar, Fairlands ...... 28 Crewkerne, Maiden Beech ...... 34 Frome, Oakfield ...... 40 Frome, Selwood ...... 40 Frome - Middle Summary ...... 39 Ilminster, Swanmead ...... 34 Minehead ...... 86 Williton, Danesfield ...... 86

Secondary Schools Ansford...... 6 Bridgwater College Academy (Years 7 -11) ...... 10 Bridgwater, Robert Blake ...... 9 Bridgwater, Chilton Trinity...... 10 Bridgwater, Haygrove ...... 10 Bridgwater - Secondary Summary ...... 9 Brymore ...... 11 Bruton, Sexey's ...... 91 Burnham on Sea, The King Alfred ...... 19 Chard, Holyrood ...... 23 Cheddar, The Kings of Wessex ...... 27 Crewkerne, Wadham ...... 33 Frome College ...... 38 Frome, Avanti Park (Years 7-11) ...... 38 Glastonbury, St Dunstan's ...... 45 Huish Episcopi ...... 48 Shepton Mallet, Whitstone ...... 55 Stoke sub Hamdon, Stanchester ...... 59 Street, Crispin ...... 63 Taunton Academy ...... 67 Taunton, Bishop Fox’s… ...... 67 Taunton, The Castle ...... 66 Taunton, Heathfield ...... 67 Taunton - Secondary Summary ...... 66 Wellington, Court Fields...... 76 Wells, The Blue ...... 80 West Somerset College ...... 85 Wincanton, King Arthur's ...... 91 Wiveliscombe, Kingsmead...... 95 Yeovil, Buckler's Mead ...... 100 Yeovil, Preston ...... 100 Yeovil, Westfield ...... 100 Yeovil - Secondary Summary ...... 99 Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 118