Somerset County Council County Hall, Taunton Somerset, TA1 4DY SOMERSET SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST 2019 PART 1: COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS March 2020 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1 Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 2 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1 SOMERSET SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST - 2019 PART 1 - COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS PART 2 - FORECAST DATA APPENDIX A: BASIS OF SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST CALCULATIONS APPENDIX B: GUIDANCE ON USE OF THE FORECAST DATA INDEX OF FORECASTS Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 3 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1 PART 1: COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION The 2019 forecasts of pupil numbers for state-funded schools in Somerset are contained in this document. Part 1 provides a commentary on the trends and analysis of the key data. The forecast figures for each school and area are set out in Part 2. New forecasts are produced annually based on the latest number on roll and pre-school children data. The annual exercise also enables any new information on school organisation or new housing developments to be included and allows the forecasts to react to changes in parental preference. The forecast data in this document has been calculated using as the base data, the actual number on roll for October 2019 (as supplied by schools as part of the Department for Education (DFE) School Census). For primary schools the forecasts are produced for the period up to 2024, for middle school areas up to 2028, and for secondary school areas up to 2030. A summary of the way that the forecasts are calculated is set out in Appendix A of this document. The forecast data are available for use as a general resource by all schools, local authority staff, and those with a wider interest in school pupil numbers. The forecast totals for each school will appear as part of the Somerset School Organisation Plan which is a key part of the LAs statutory responsibility for planning of school places. As part of that statutory duty, the forecast data is reported to the DFE as part of the annual School Capacity Collection return (SCAP). The DFE use the pupil forecast data to inform the basic need funding allocation which assists LAs in providing the school places required to meet future demand. Key Trends The key headlines in terms of pupil numbers in Somerset are as follows: ►Primary aged pupil numbers across the County are forecast to fall until at least 2024; although there are still some local increases. ►There are forecast to be more primary schools seeing falling numbers and the size of drop is forecast to increase; ►A continuation until 2023 of the increase in the numbers of pupils in the secondary sector which stared in 2017. Numbers are forecast to plateau in 2024 and 2025 and then decline for the reminder of the forecast period; ►Substantial growth in secondary school number on roll is forecast in Bridgwater, Taunton and to a lesser extent in Yeovil, reflecting previous growth in primary school numbers in these areas; ►16+ pupil numbers remain a small proportion of the total roll but are subject to a greater level of variation from year to year when compared to other phases; ►An overall rising school roll in Somerset with numbers set to peak in 2021 and 2022 before beginning to decline from 2023. ►Further growth in the number of pupils in Somerset’s special schools; Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 4 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1 1. COUNTY LEVEL TRENDS Calculation of County Forecasts: 1.1 In line with established best practice, the forecasts at County level (which appear in Part 2, page 5) have been calculated separately rather than by aggregation of the individual school forecasts. However, as part of the calculation of the forecasts the individual area totals are reconciled against the County forecast data as a means of validating the school forecasts. This process helps to avoid serious over/under- stating of the forecasts. The reconciliation process means that any difference between the two sets of totals generally lies within the forecast margin of error. Primary aged pupils (Years R to 6) 1.2 From 2010 to 2018 there were 9 successive years of increase in the primary aged roll in Somerset resulting in an increase of 4607 pupils – an increase of 12.5%. As has been forecast previously, that period of increase is now at an end with the October 2019 roll 134 lower at 41254. 1.3 The forecast data shows that there will again be another small decrease in 2020 with more substantial falls each year for the rest of the forecast period up to 2024. By 2024 the number of pupils of primary school age in Somerset is forecast to have fallen by 2261 from the 2019 roll – a fall of 5.5%. 1.4 The recent rise in pupil numbers in the primary age range in Somerset has been part of a national trend. This is demonstrated in the accompanying Chart A, which plots the historical and forecast number of pupils in Somerset and England. DFE National Pupil Projections*1 are based on ONS national population projections and include a forecast of the national birth-rate giving data up to academic year 2027/28. By contrast, the forecasts for Somerset are based largely on the data for the living resident population available from the Somerset Health so only extend to 2024/25. If Somerset generally follows the forecast national trend there is unlikely to be any overall increase in primary age pupils before 2027/28. Although there could be some local increases where a community is expanding. 1.5 Whilst pupil numbers in Somerset have generally followed the national trend, Chart A shows that the primary actual roll in Somerset has climbed slightly less steeply than the DFE national data in the last few years. Also, the forecast data indicate that Somerset pupil numbers in the primary age range will fall a little more quickly than nationally whilst still following the same basic trend. This may reflect the predominantly rural nature of Somerset compared to the DFE national trend which, by definition, includes the more urban areas of the England as well. 1.6 As a result of previous increases in the birth rate the number of pupils entering Somerset primary schools at reception increased quite noticeably from 2007 reaching a peak in 2015 and 2016 with over 5900 pupils in both years. This has driven the large increases in the number of pupils in the primary sector. In line with the forecast, the actual number of reception year pupils in 2017 to 2019 has been lower - below 5800. The forecast reception year groups for the remainder of the forecast period show that numbers are expected to fall. By 2023, the extent of forecasts covered by live population data, the reception year is forecast to be 5252, a total that is 487 fewer than the 2019 reception year. Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 5 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1 Chart A - England & Somerset Trend in Pupil Numbers 55,000 Actual pupils number on roll, as Primary pupils Yr R-6 50,000 recorded in the DFE School Census, - England (00s) are indicated by a solid line; forecast numbers are denoted by a broken line. 45,000 Primary pupils Yr R-6 - Somerset 40,000 Secondary pupils Yr 7- 35,000 11 - England (00s) Number ofPupils 30,000 25,000 Secondary pupils Yr 7-11 - Somerset 20,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Year Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 6 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1 Chart B: Percentage change in number of births England & Wales/Somerset (2013 base 100) - Source: NOMIS 2.0 Somerset England & Wales 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 This chart shows the percentage point increase/decrease in the number of births from 2013 to 2018 (for presentation purposes 2013 is the base year -4.0 with a value of 0.0 from which all other calculations have been made). Data relates to calendar years. Data source: NOMIS - Live Births in England & Wales -5.0 The data in this chart has not been used in the calculation of the pupil roll forecasts but is included to provide supporting data. -6.0 -7.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Business Intelligence - Children's Team (March 2020) 7 Somerset School Population Forecast 2019 - Part 1 Table 1: Change in KS1 and KS2 pupils 2009 - 2024 KS1 KS2 Total Difference Difference Difference Pupils Pupils Primary 2009 (A) 15899 20882 36781 2050 2078 4128 2016 (A) 17949 22960 40909 -638 983 345 2019 (A) 17311 23943 41254 -14 -99 -114 2020 (F) 17297 23844 41140 -1395 -753 -2261 2024 (F) 15902 23091 38993 Table 2: Change in secondary aged pupils 2003 – 2028 Years Years Total Difference Difference Difference 7-11 12+ Secondary 2003 (A) 29363 1702 31065 -4573 202 -4371 2016 (A) 24790 1904 26694 1201 -286 915 2019 (A) 25991 1618 27609 513 78 591 2020 (F) 26504 1696 28200 1356 64 1420 2023 (F) 27860 1760 29619 -868 145 -724 2028 (F) 26991 1905 28896 Table 1 & 2 Notes: [a] The actual data covers all state-funded schools in Somerset open at the respective Census date. The forecast data reflects current provision even though this may be different from the historical establishment of schools, eg where new provision has been established or where schools have closed. [b] The differences shown in the above tables are from the previous point (eg 2009 to 2016, or 2019 to 2020).