Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Study

Southall OAPF

DEVELOPMENT INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING STUDY

FINAL REPORT

Prepared for:

Transport for London Greater London Authority London Borough of Ealing

20 th June 2014

UNITED KINGDOM & IRELAND

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Rev Date Details Prepared by Checked by Approved by

Simon Thurley, 28 th April URS Esther Howe, 1 Draft Report Rory Brooke, URS 2014 Esther Howe, URS URS

Anthony Lee, 4th June BNP Paribus Rory Brooke, 2 Draft Final Report Rory Brooke, URS 2014 Gregory URS Openshaw, URS

20 th June Gregory Rory Brooke, 3 Final Report Rory Brooke, URS 2014 Openshaw, URS URS

URS Infrastructure and Environment UK Limited 6-8 Greencoat Place London SW1P 1PL

Telephone: +44(0)20 7821 5000

Limitations

URS Infrastructure & Environment UK Limited (“URS”) has prepared this Report for the sole use of the client group in accordance with the Agreement under which our services were performed. No other warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the professional advice included in this Report or any other services provided by URS. This Report is confidential and may not be disclosed by the Client nor relied upon by any other party without the prior and express written agreement of URS.

The conclusions and recommendations contained in this Report are based upon information provided by others and upon the assumption that all relevant information has been provided by those parties from whom it has been requested and that such information is accurate. Information obtained by URS has not been independently verified by URS, unless otherwise stated in the Report.

The methodology adopted and the sources of information used by URS in providing its services are outlined in this Report. The work described in this Report was undertaken between February 2014 and June 2014 and is based on the conditions encountered and the information available during the said period of time. The scope of this Report and the services are accordingly factually limited by these circumstances.

Where assessments of works or costs identified in this Report are made, such assessments are based upon the information available at the time and where appropriate are subject to further investigations or information which may become available.

URS disclaim any undertaking or obligation to advise any person of any change in any matter affecting the Report, which may come or be brought to URS’ attention after the date of the Report.

Certain statements made in the Report that are not historical facts may constitute estimates, projections or other forward- looking statements and even though they are based on reasonable assumptions as of the date of the Report, such forward-looking statements by their nature involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results predicted. URS specifically does not guarantee or warrant any estimate or projections contained in this Report.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS ...... 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 2

1. INTRODUCTION ...... 17

1.1 Aims ...... 17 1.2 Approach ...... 17 1.3 Report Structure ...... 18

2. ANTICIPATED GROWTH ...... 19

2.1 Introduction ...... 19 2.2 The Context for Growth ...... 19 2.3 Growth Trajectory ...... 20 2.4 New Residents and Jobs ...... 24 2.5 Assessing Infrastructure Needs Arising from Growth ...... 27

3. SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE ...... 28

3.1 Introduction ...... 28 3.2 Primary Education ...... 28 3.3 Secondary Education ...... 30 3.4 Primary Health Care ...... 31 3.5 Sports ...... 33 3.6 Open Space and Play Space ...... 34 3.7 Community and Regeneration ...... 39

4. TRANSPORT ...... 41

4.1 Introduction ...... 41 4.2 Relevant Policy ...... 43 4.3 Existing Supply ...... 44 4.4 Demand for Travel during Plan Period ...... 49 4.5 Planned Provision ...... 53 4.6 Phasing ...... 58 4.7 Costs ...... 61 4.8 Funding and Funding Gap ...... 62

5. UTILITIES AND HARD INFRASTRUCTURE ...... 68

5.1 Introduction ...... 68 5.2 Energy ...... 68 5.3 Water ...... 71 5.4 Sewage ...... 72 5.5 Waste Management ...... 73 5.6 Flood Risk ...... 74 5.7 Telecommunications ...... 74

6. INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING GAP ...... 77

iii

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

6.1 Infrastructure Funding Gap ...... 77

7. VIABILITY AND DEVELOPER/ LANDOWNER CONTRIBUTIONS ...... 81

7.1 Securing Contributions Towards Infrastructure to Support Growth ...... 81 7.2 Sample Sites ...... 81 7.3 Planning Policy Requirements ...... 82 7.4 Appraisal Methodology...... 82 7.5 Appraisal Inputs ...... 83 7.6 Impact of delivery timescale on residual land values ...... 84 7.7 Benchmark/Existing Use Land Values ...... 84 7.8 Results ...... 85

8. FUNDING FOR INFRASTRUCTURE ...... 88

8.1 Introduction ...... 88 8.2 Funding from Development ...... 88 * Based on the upper OA apportionment of gap funding for transport schemes...... 89 8.3 Developer Contributions Strategy ...... 89 8.4 Other Mechanisms for Extracting Value Uplift ...... 90 8.5 Public Sector Grants and Loans for Infrastructure ...... 92 8.6 Conclusion ...... 96

9. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 97

APPENDIX A INFRASTRUCTURE SCHEDULE

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

ABBREVIATIONS

CIL Community Infrastructure Levy DPD Development Plan Document DIFS Development Infrastructure Funding Study FE Forms of Entry GLA Greater London Authority Ha Hectares LBE London Borough of Ealing LIP Local Implementation Plan MTS Mayor’s Transport Strategy NIA Net Internal Area NMU Non-Motorised User NPPF National Planning Policy Framework OAPF Opportunity Area Planning Framework POS Public Open Space REMA Revised Early Minor Alterations s.106 Section 106 SOA Southall Opportunity Area SPD Supplementary Planning Document Sqm Square metres SUDS Sustainable Urban Drainage System TfL Transport for London VOA Valuation Office Agency

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Aims

The Greater London Authority (GLA), in partnership with London Borough of Ealing (LBE) and Transport for London (TfL), is preparing a planning framework for the Southall Opportunity Area. The Development Infrastructure Funding Study (DIFS) has been commissioned to provide an assessment of infrastructure needs and a strategy for infrastructure funding and delivery to underpin the Opportunity Area Planning Framework (OAPF).

The Interim Report (March 2014) comprised a review of infrastructure requirements and costs associated with OAPF growth in order to establish the funding gap over the period to 2032. This Draft Final Report includes viability analysis to establish the extent to which development is likely to be able to contribute to meeting the funding gap relating to OAPF infrastructure. Alternative sources of funding are also considered in particular public sector streams. Recommendations are made on how the client group can facilitate the delivery and funding of infrastructure requirements and therefore the OAPF as a whole.

Anticipated Growth

The Southall Opportunity Area is located in the south west of LBE. The arrival of Crossrail in 2018 will be the catalyst for substantial growth relating to the brownfield sites surrounding the station.

Southall is a populous and diverse place with a unique character and history. The demographic characteristics of the Opportunity Area, which include an ethnic diverse and young population, have the potential to affect demand for infrastructure and the impacts of development. These considerations have informed the approach to the DIFS. The DIFS will also build upon LBE’s a year-long consultation with the community (the Big Conversation) and the Southall Charter, which set out key priorities for the area from the perspective of the resident community.

Within the Opportunity Area, ten sites within or close to the town centre have been identified on which new residential and commercial floorspace is expected to come forward from 2014 to 2032. Information on the quantity of new homes and commercial floorspace anticipated on these sites was taken primarily from the 2013 OAPF Transport Study. It is estimated that from 2014 to 2032 there will be 5,913 net additional dwellings and 77,655 square metres (sqm) net additional non-residential floorspace.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table ES1: Growth Trajectory for the Opportunity Area

Ref Development Name Residential (units) Non-residential (sqm)

2014-17 SOU3 Beaconsfield Road/South Road 64 1,117 SOU5 Southall West 824 4,901 SOU9 St John’s Church Hall 20 353 2018-22 SOU4 Southall Crossrail Station 205 4,115 SOU5 Southall West 1,802 25,751 SOU6 Southall East 737 12,897 SOU7 Havelock 200

2023-32 SOU1 Southall Market 141 2470 SOU2 Iceland and Quality Foods 138 2,411 SOU4 Southall Crossrail Station 51 1,029 SOU5 Southall West 1,126 12,000 SOU6 Southall East 184 3,224 SOU8 The Green 267 4,665 SOU10 Johnson Street 2,724

Total 5,913 77,655

Source: URS

Growth is concentrated in the later phases of the planning period. The phase from 2018-22 will have the highest number of residential units and commercial floorspace coming forward.

To estimate the new residential population, average household sizes or ‘occupancy rates’ in Southall and LBE were applied to the new dwellings coming forward, drawing on the 2011 Census. The ‘child yield factors’ indicating the number of children per dwelling are based on Census age profile data for Southall and LBE. New jobs arising have been estimated using standard employment densities according to the type of commercial floorspace to be developed. This methodology indicates that over the 20 year period new development within the SOA will give rise to an additional 17,997 residents, of whom 4,403 will be aged 0 to 17, and 2,902 jobs will be generated.

Approach

Our work has primarily comprised a review of existing evidence, including publically available documents and data and information provided by the client group. Additional analysis has been undertaken and professional expertise employed to add to and build on existing information, where required and where possible within the scope of the work. For infrastructure types where demand can be logically linked to projected new housing and

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

employment space, a model was used to estimate new demand arising from growth in the Opportunity Area, as well as associated costs. This information supplements that on planned projects and helps build a picture of the scale and timing of demand.

BNPPRE has undertaken site-specific viability appraisals of five sample sites using the residual land valuation approach. These five sample sites were: Southall Crossrail Station; Southall East; Southall Market; The Green; and Iceland and Quality Foods. BNPPRE has also drawn on existing work on Southall sites and the local property market and recent recommendations on an appropriate CIL levy for LBE.

Social Infrastructure

Primary Education

The LBE Planning for Schools DPD consultation document (Oct 2013) 1 indicates that in response to rising demand there has been recent expansion of 25.5 forms of entry (FE) in LBE’s primary schools with 14.5FE of further expansions and new schools planned. There are 14 primary schools that lie within the Opportunity Area. May 2012 data indicates there was a surplus of 135 places within these schools. Current and forecast capacity data is not available for local schools. However the project brief for this commission states that there is a primary places shortfall to 2015/16 of 3.5 Form of Entry (FE) across the OAPF.

The West Southall scheme will provide a 3,450sqm, 2FE junior school and nursery for 50 infants. Delivery is planned for 2015-20. The LBE Planning for Schools DPD consultation document (Oct 2013) includes two additional sites in Southall on the ‘long list’ of sites to potentially be developed for new schools (primary and secondary): Southall East, and Southall Gateway/ Park Avenue.

The residential development trajectory and assumptions set out in Section 2 indicate that 1,591 children aged 4 to 10 could reside at new developments in the Opportunity Area. Assuming that 7% of children attend private school, in line with the UK average, the infrastructure model indicates that demand will be 1,480 pupil places, the demand by phase being: 229 places in phase 1, 733 places in phase 2, and 518 places in phase 3. Taking into account the 420 new places at West Southall, net demand reduces to 542 places in phase 2 and 518 places in phase 3. This implies a requirement for additional provision of 5.0FE during phases 2 and 3, or 2.5 new 2FE schools. Assuming that least some of the cost for the new schools will be met through mainstream government funding, a funding gap for primary school education of £10.95m is estimated.

Secondary Education

There are two secondary schools within Opportunity Area. May 2012 data indicated some have spare capacity. There is no data available on current or forecast capacity in local schools. However the brief for this study states that the secondary places shortfall in the Opportunity Area to 2019/20 is 1.0FE.

The residential development trajectory and assumptions set out in Section 2 indicate that 1,110 children aged 11 to 15 could reside at new developments in the Opportunity Area. The infrastructure model indicates that demand will be 160 places in phase 1, 511 places in phase

1 http://www.ealing.gov.uk/downloads/download/2707/planning_for_schools_dpd

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

2, and 362 places in phase 3. This equates to 5.7FE and 1.1 new secondary schools. Applying a cost per place of £22,000 2 indicates a gross cost of £22.7m.

The LBE Planning for Schools DPD consultation document (Oct 2013) indicates that the potential school sites at Southern Gateway and East Southall could be primary or secondary schools. As secondary school children can travel substantially further than primary school children, they are more likely to attend schools elsewhere in the LBE or in other boroughs. Planned investment at a borough-level for an additional 21FE by 2019 and a further 9FE by 2026 could therefore cater for some children residing in the Opportunity Area.

The infrastructure model indicates a gross cost of £22.7m to cater for secondary school demand within the Opportunity Area. Taking into account the £4.3m already committed by the West Southall scheme, and assuming that 50% of the remaining cost will be met by mainstream funding streams (such that funding is split 50:50, public:private), this study assumes a funding gap of £9.2m for secondary school places.

Primary Health Care

There are 16 GP practices within the Opportunity Area with 36 GPs (headcount rather than whole time equivalent). Average patient list size appears higher than the general standard of 1,800 patients per whole time equivalent GP.

The West Southall scheme is providing a new health centre with capacity for up to 8 GPs. This is due to be delivered between 2015 and 2020.

Gross demand is estimated at 10 GPs (1.5 GPs in phase 1, 5.0 GPs in phase 2, and 3.5 GPs in phase 3). However the 8 new GPs within the new West Southall health centre will cater for much of this demand; this reduces net demand within the Opportunity Area to 2 new GPs in phase 3. Assuming standard space and cost benchmarks, a cost of £785,400 would be associated with 2 GPs. As at least some mainstream funding is typically provided for primary health care facilities, 50% (£392,700) is included within the Opportunity Area funding gap.

Sports

LBE, in partnership with Greenwich Leisure Limited (GLL), provides sport and leisure centres under the ‘Better Leisure Centres in Ealing’ initiative. There are two facilities in the Opportunity Area: The Swift Road Outdoor Sports Centre and the Southall Sports Centre. The West Southall scheme made a contribution of £975,000 for a new swimming pool in Southall (no site had been identified at the time) Moreover the scheme includes a sports pavilion on site that would be provided in association with the large public park, as well as tennis courts and all weather pitches.

Sport England’s Sports Facilities calculator 3 assesses gross demand for sports facilities arising from new population as: 3.75 pool lanes (0.94 pools) at a cost of £3.04m; 5.33 courts (1.33 halls) at a cost of £4.02m; 0.86 indoor bowls rinks (0.14 centres) at a cost of £265,144; and 0.16 artificial pitches (sand and 3G) at a cost of £1.08m.

2 Gleeds Cost Management 2014 3 http://www.sportengland.org/facilities-planning/planning-for-sport/planning-tools-and-guidance/sports- facility-calculator/ Accessed 22nd March 2014

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Open Space

Although there are a number of open spaces within and near to the Opportunity Area, the Draft OAPF notes that the Southall Broadway and Southall Green Wards (which form the majority of the OA) have some of the lowest public open space provision in the borough and a district and local park deficiency.

The West Southall scheme will include 24.4ha of open space including 4.6ha as communal garden space, 13.5ha as public open space and 2.5ha of children’s playspace. In addition financial contributions have been made to offsite open space and public realm improvements. The Draft OAPF identifies a requirement for a small local park (0.8ha to 1ha) within East Southall, and a multifunctional linear green space of approximately 1.7ha with distinct character areas is planned at the Havelock Estate.

Applying standards within LBE’s Development Management DPD, gross demand arising from the new residents within the Opportunity Area is approximately 35ha of public open space, 4.2ha of child play space, 3.0ha of allotments and 13.3ha of active recreation space. There is a lack of quantitative information on the baseline and planned provision in the local area. Provision at West Southall alone (13.5ha public open space and 2.6ha play space) will meet a large proportion of the gross demand (approximately 40% and 60% respectively). As cost information is lacking for these various types of open space, they have not been included within the funding gap for this study. The strategy for provision will include improved links to existing public open spaces located near the Opportunity Area.

Community and Regeneration

Community facilities encompass halls, libraries and faith facilities typically owned and operated by the public or third sector as well as cinemas, cafes, shops and restaurants which while commercially operated provide opportunities for recreation and social interaction.

Southall’s cultural and faith assets include the Manor House, Southall Library and the Gurdwara Sri Guru Singh Sabha Southall. The strengthening of the Dominion Centre as a multifunctional community hub with new library is underway. Many of the major sites to come forward within the Opportunity Area include space within D1, D2 or A use spaces. The redeveloped Havelock Estate will provide a community ‘hub’ close to the canal including a community centre, shops and a café. The Draft OAPF details the transformation of the Western Road public open space to create the new King’s Centre community venue/memorial garden and public space to the front of St John’s Church Hall. The West Southall scheme includes 4,700sqm of leisure floorspace as a multi-screen cinema. The redevelopment of the OA could also lead to relocation requirements for the Gurdwara Sri Guru Singh Sabha Southall. A broad cost estimate for the Gurdwara Sri Guru Singh Sabha Southall relocation and St John’s Church Hall Community Hub development totals £11.5m. On the assumption that 50% of the remaining cost will be met by mainstream funding streams (such that funding is split 50:50, public:private), this study assumes a funding gap of £5.75m for these two community schemes.

A number of additional programmes are identified in the LBE Infrastructure Planning & Funding Gap Report (2014) which will lead to benefits for the community. These include

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

investment into the use of the Manor House and specifically the Dine in Southall Employment & Skills programme (Hospitality & Catering Training). Costs are identified as £1.5m with £0.85m committed via Mainstream Funding, implying a funding gap of £0.65m.

It is not rationale to forecast space requirements for community space given the range of facilities and needs which this category encompasses. However relevant projects are identified within the infrastructure schedule.

Transport

Southall is well connected to the strategic transport network with road and rail routes. The evidence review highlights that:

• The road network exceeds effective capacity along certain roads within the OA. The A3005 South Road and A4020 Uxbridge Road both suffer major congestion in both directions with long queues at The Green/ South Road junction immediately south of Southall Station and on several bus routes. In addition journey time reliability is an issue. As the principal route for local traffic north of the railway to access the Strategic Road Network for long distance travel the A4020 attracts traffic from neighbouring parts of Ealing. • In spite of Southall Station’s good rail connections the Draft OAPF notes that there is currently a limited stopping service on the Great Western Mainline and Heathrow Connect, with four to six trains stopping at Southall station per hour. • Southall is generally well served by bus routes with most places within 640m of a bus service. However road congestion is an issue in spite of the high number of routes serving Southall. The transport interchange at Southall Station is considered to be poor and not sufficient to cater for anticipated future demand. • Walking and cycling infrastructure within the Opportunity Area suffers from severance caused by railway lines and canals.

The Southall OAPF Transport Study summarised the trip generation for the proposed developments in the Opportunity Area and the broad distribution of demand. The review of the evidence base has established a significant number of schemes identified by LBE and others to address needs and constraints within the Opportunity Area. The schemes identified as part of the review are illustrated in Figure ES1 below.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure ES1: Proposed Transport Schemes Identified from the Information Review

Source: URS Numbering refers to individual transport schemes as set out in Appendix A.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

The capital cost of schemes identified from the evidence base is £35.5m. Road schemes account for 64% of capital costs while non-motorised user (NMU) and bus schemes account for 20% and walking and cycling 16% of total costs. The total funding associated with transport schemes capital works is £25.6m.

Infrastructure schemes will also generate operational costs, for example costs relating to equipment, energy, maintenance and salaries. Operational costs are expected to represent a comparatively small proportion of total scheme costs and, due to the difficulty in accurately identifying such costs, have not been factored into the infrastructure costs assessment.

It is unlikely that all demand for the planned transport interventions will arise from the OA and therefore the entire cost or funding gap should not be borne by development in the OA. We have discussed with LBE, TfL and GLA what proportion of transport gap funding could be attributed to the OA’s transport infrastructure costs. In absence of a more suitable approach 4 we have estimated a proportion based on the potential change in population arising from new development within the OA. The Draft OAPF indicates that the current population of Southall is 56,000. This study estimates new residents in the Opportunity Area resulting from growth to 17,977, an uplift of 32%. We could therefore assume a figure of 32% represents the transport funding gap attributed to the OAPF. An alternative way of considering the apportionment would be to estimate new residents of the OA arising from new residential development as a proportion of the total new population within the OA. This would mean that the new residents represent 24% of the total population. 5 For the purposes of this assessment we therefore estimate the potential infrastructure funding gap attributed to the OA based on a lower apportionment of 24% and an upper apportionment of 32% of total transport gap funding required.

There is however an argument to say that the apportionment of the transport funding gap to the OA should be higher. Existing Southall residents benefit from high levels of parking provision and access which reduces their incentive to switch to using public transport, walking or cycling. Typically it is harder to change existing transport habits than it is to establish new habits when people undergo a lifestyle change. This difficulty in achieving a shift in existing transport habits is reflected in LBE’s Local Implementation Plan (LIP) target for increasing walking and cycling, which is for an increase of 1.3% and 3%, up to 2031, respectively. Comparatively, within the OA, the new transport infrastructure planned is predominantly focused on NMU modes of transport and car parking provision at new developments is relatively low with an average of 0.6 spaces per dwelling. We expect therefore that new residents of the OA be more likely to use non-motorised transport compared to existing residents. However, there a lack of quantitative evidence to support a view on what proportion of users of non-motorised transport in the OA would be new residents and what proportion would be existing residents. If we were to take a high level assumption that new residents would be twice as likely to be users of non-motorised transport modes as existing residents, then the apportionment of the transport funding gap attributed to new development arising within the OA would increase two-fold. This could mean that the apportionment of the OA transport funding gap could be much higher: the 24% lower apportionment bound increasing to 48%, and the 32% upper apportionment bound increasing to 64%.

4 For example transport modelling data associated with each transport scheme allowing volume over capacity calculations to be made. 5 17,997 divided by the addition of 17,997 and 56,000.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Following the above, with a funding gap for transport projects of £9.95m, under the lower and upper OA apportionment the total contribution from OA development is £2.4m and £3.2m, respectively. This leaves a deficit for transport projects of £7.6m and £6.8m respectively, under the lower and upper OA apportionment, to be met from elsewhere (see Table ES2 ). If an apportionment of 64% were to be applied, to reflect a higher likelihood of NMU transport modal use by new residents of the OA, as explained above, there would be a higher funding gap within the OA of £6.4m.

For the purposes of this study, and given the lack of quantitative evidence supporting the 64% apportionment figure, we have presented our analysis of the transport funding gap in Section 6 based on the evidenced 32% upper OA contribution, which is derived from the uplift in population within the OA compared to the existing base population.

Table ES2: Scheme Capital Costs and Funding (Opportunity Area Portion by Mode)

Total Total Funding Lower OA Upper OA Capital Cost Funding Gap Contribution Contribution Mode Schemes (£’000s) (£’000s) (£’000s) (£’000s) (£’000s)

Road 10 £22,600 £22,600 £0 £0 £0

NMU 3 £3,600 £1,000 £2,600 £624 £832

Bus / NMU 2 £3,550 £0 £3,550 £852 £1,136

Pedestrian 12 £3,700 £2,000 £1,700 £408 £544

Cycle 1 £2,100 £0 £2,100 £504 £672

Total 28 £35,550 £25,600 £9,950 £2,388 £3,184

Source: URS Note: The assessment found no capital costs associated with bus infrastructure though, as with all infrastructure schemes, there are likely to be operational costs arising from the start-up of new, amended or enhanced provision. Lower OA contribution = 24% of total transport infrastructure gap funding requirement Upper OA contribution = 32% of total transport infrastructure gap funding requirement.

In some instances transport infrastructure is required to unlock development. Development at West Southall is limited to 2,500 units until the bridge widening is completed. The timelines below indicate bridge widening could be delivered in 2024. As noted above, much of the OA development is due to come forward or be in progress by 2022, including many sites in the eastern half of the Opportunity Area, on both sides of the railway within close proximity to South Road. On this basis it may be prudent for widening of South Road bridge to be brought forward in order to facilitate development in the OA. As part of the West Southall planning approval, LBE have requested that improvement works on the South Road/A4020 Uxbridge Road junction, South Road/Beaconsfield Road junction and the South Road/Merrick Road junction are completed before the South Road bridge is widened, to reduce the impacts of any congestion caused by the bridge works. It is desirable that works over the railway or in support of the station should be completed by 2019 because of the additional disruption that would be caused once Crossrail is in place.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Utilities and Hard Infrastructure

Energy

National Grid has responsibility for monitoring existing capacity, undertaking maintenance and expansion of the systems for supply of gas and energy within the Opportunity Area. Over the plan period there are likely to be upgrades and expansions required to existing networks. In most cases work with be undertaken and funded by National Grid, with developers contributing to costs where requirements relate to on-site infrastructure or wider strategic projects. No specific energy infrastructure projects have been identified for the Southall Opportunity Area at this time, apart from the decentralised energy network, which is costed at £5.7m between 2017 and 2032.

Indicative gross demand for electricity from new development is 9,984 kVA. To accommodate this gross demand it is estimated that the Opportunity Area would require a total of 1.2 primary sub-stations and just over 19.7 distribution sub-stations. It is estimated that the costs across the Opportunity Area for primary sub-stations will be £16.2m and for distribution sub-stations £3.4m. The gross demand for gas is estimated as 8,243 m 3/hour. To determine the net demand and net infrastructure requirements, infrastructure projects coming forward as part of planned demand should also be taken into account. No detailed information is available on planned projects affecting the Southall area however, either in terms of permitted schemes or other strategic projects.

Water

Thames Water is the owner, operator and supplier of water resources within the Opportunity Area. Investments needed to meet demand arising across the Greater London region include the continuation of the leakage reduction programme via Victorian Mains Replacement (VMR) and maintenance of existing water mains. No planned projects of specific relevance to the Opportunity Area have been identified. However expansions and upgrades to infrastructure are likely to be required.

The gross demand for water is estimated at 3.42m litres/day. Net demand will be lower reflecting planned provision for proposed developments which already have planning permission. However no detailed information on planned investment is available.

Sewage

Sewage infrastructure covers both surface water drainage and foul water drainage. The sewerage system in the majority of Greater London is operated by Thames Water.

The LBE Infrastructure Planning & Funding Gap Report (2014) records the Thames Tunnel Project (Acton Storm Tanks) as of relevance to the LBE; this will be funded via the Thames Water capital programme. It also notes that there will be other needs to upgrade sewage works capacity as a result of residential growth. No other planned projects of specific relevance to the Opportunity Area have been identified.

Waste Management

LBE is part of the West London Waste Authority (WDWA). The LBE Infrastructure Planning & Funding Gap Report (2014) notes that waste facilities will be determined through the West London Waste Plan and WLWA will enter into a contract with an approved partner to provide waste processing contract. Contributions from development are unlikely to be part of the

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

funding strategy for waste management. No planned projects of specific relevance to the Opportunity Area have been identified.

Flood Risk

Bodies responsible for maintaining and renewing flood defences in the LBE include Thames Water, the Environment Agency, Canals and Rivers Trust, Local Authorities and private individuals and landowners. No projects relating to flood risk have been identified through the evidence review; however there are identified surface water flood risks along Uxbridge Road and South Road as well as small pockets of flood risk at East Southall and Havelock. As for other hard infrastructure, site specific mitigation will play a key role in protecting the Opportunity Area as a whole, for example through the on-site provision of SUDS.

Telecommunications

The sector is regulated by the Office of Communications (Ofcom). As well as British Telecoms key players in the sector include Virgin, 3G, O2, Orange, T-Mobile and Vodafone. The GLA and Local Authorities are working with industry partners to plan future programmes of provision. Funding to support faster broadband connections across the UK has been rolled out by the Government. Of this fund, the GLA has secured £25m for provision improvements in London and is anticipated to add a further £25m to this funding pot.

The majority of London has high-speed broadband coverage (up to 24 Mbit/s) 6. There has also been an ongoing programme to roll out super-fast broadband (up to 110 Mbit/s). A map of broadband coverage and speed currently provided by BT by area across London shows that the majority of LBE already has super-fast broadband deployed in the area. The Opportunity Area has super-fast broadband planned however it is not yet in place. Data from the London Plan Implementation Plan shows that the whole of the LBE (and the majority of Greater London) is Ethernet deployment enabled.

Infrastructure Funding Gap

The infrastructure assessments identify total infrastructure costs for projects in Southall Opportunity Area over the plan period of £111m. Funding is identified as £72m. This leaves a total funding gap of £39m. The funding gap identified for the Opportunity Area of approximately £32m reflects that not all the demand for projects in the Opportunity Area will arise from the development in Opportunity Area, and an assumption that 32% of the total funding gap for transport projects should be attributed to the Opportunity Area. The gap funding figure of £32m represents the upper bound apportionment of gap funding requirement associated with transport schemes (upper apportionment of 32% of costs).

Social infrastructure accounts for 90% of the infrastructure gap, transport for 10% and utilities for 0%. Before discounting transport projects as described above, transport accounts for 26% of the funding gap. Available information indicates that the funding gap is likely to be greater in Phase 2 (2018 to 2022) than in Phase 1 (2023 to 2032). Phase 3 (2023 to 32) accounts for 39% of the funding gap.

The projects making up the £32m funding gap are:

• Primary school places (5FE or 2.5 2FE schools)

6 BT data cited in the GLA, London Implementation Plan 2013

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

• Secondary school places (6.2FE or 1.2 new secondary schools)

• Primary health care (2GPs)

• Sports and leisure (pools, halls, indoor bowls rinks, artificial pitches)

• Potential relocation of Gurdwara Sri Guru Singh Sabha, Southall Gateway and St. John's Church Hall Community Hub development

• Dine in Southall - Employment & Skills, Hospitality & Catering Training

• Southall Station redevelopment with enhanced interchange, cycle hub and direct street level crossing to West Southall.

• Southall East Bridge - cycle footbridge over railway between Merrick Road and Park Avenue

• High Street 'Shoulders' - Extension of Southall Broadway project to cover the High Street east of the South Road junction

• King Street / The Green Improvements - safety and accessibility (Southall Great Streets 5)

• Implement Legible London - signage to improve way finding; and

• Two Quietways - Ealing to Southall and Southall to Hounslow

Viability

We have tested the viability of five sample sites in the area and their ability to generate contributions towards infrastructure. In line with these current and emerging LBE planning policies, the appraisals assume 50% affordable housing and CIL contributions as per the Preliminary Draft Charging Schedule (PDCS). We have adopted a residual land valuation methodology to test the developer/ landowner contributions that the sample schemes might be able to absorb whilst also providing a normal level of developer’s return and a land value in excess of existing use value for the landowner. This method deducts from the completed scheme value all the development costs (base build costs, professional fees, marketing costs, finance costs and profit), leaving a ‘residual’ amount which represents the amount that a developer could offer for the site.

For all sites, the appraisal based on current values indicates that development would be unviable and there would be no surplus potential available to fund infrastructure. Given the likely phasing of the sites, the line ‘values and costs inflated to 2023 with real growth thereafter’ reflects the best (reasonably cautious) current view of the ultimate land value and surplus potential available to fund infrastructure. For each site apart from The Green these assumptions indicate some surplus would be potentially available to fund infrastructure, with total potential funding of £17m for the four sites. In addition the appraisals indicate that approximately £6m would be available from s.106 agreements and approximately £4m from CIL.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table ES3: Summary of potential infrastructure funding from five sites

Indicative Surplus potentially Residual land Growth assumptions benchmark available to fund value (£m) land value (£m) infrastructure (£m)

Current values -10.61 37.42 -48.03

Resi values and costs inflated to 2023 11.35 37.42 -26.07

Resi values and costs inflated to 2023 with real growth thereafter 54.38 37.42 16.96 Source: URS

Funding for Infrastructure

Given that the five sites included in the viability assessment account for most of the unconsented growth within the Opportunity Area, they represent a reasonable picture of funding from development that could be available from the entire Opportunity Area. At current values development in the Opportunity Area is not viable and there would be no surplus available to fund infrastructure. However when residential values and costs are inflated to 2023 with real growth thereafter, the funding available from development including CIL and s.106 totals approximately £27m.

This funding could largely meet the funding gap for infrastructure identified for the Opportunity Area estimated at £32m. However initial analysis suggests that for Phase 1 and Phase 2 infrastructure costs are more than the funding generated from development in the OA.

Approximately £4m could come forward from CIL, assuming that LBE adopts CIL in line with its PDCS published in February 2014. The draft Regulation 123 list of items on which CIL would be spent covers all the items in the Opportunity Area which currently have a funding gap. LBE could earmark the CIL from development in the Opportunity Area for spending on infrastructure within the Opportunity Area, though it could spend this CIL elsewhere in the Borough (and conversely CIL from elsewhere in the Borough could be spent in the Opportunity Area).

Approximately £6m could be available from s.106. In addition, planning obligations could be the mechanism through which some or all of the £17m ‘land surplus’ contributes towards infrastructure in the Opportunity Area. However under the CIL Regulations 2010 7 the infrastructure type or project must not be included on the list of infrastructure on which LBE plans to spend CIL. It may therefore be most appropriate for LBE to change the Regulation 123 list to exclude items within the Opportunity Area funding gap. Once viability improves the Charging Schedule and Regulation 123 list could be revised so that Southall infrastructure is covered by CIL at rates which are appropriate to maximise funding from development.

If s.106 contributions are to be negotiated in relation to the Opportunity Area sites, the infrastructure would need to relate directly to needs arising from the development in question. In addition, from April 2015 s.106 obligations can only be pooled for up to five separate

7 DCLG, (2010); Community Infrastructure Levy Regulations 2010 (as amended by the Community Infrastructure Levy Regulations 2012 and 2014).

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

planning obligations under Regulation 123. These restrictions would limit number of schemes contributing to, and therefore the effectiveness of, an Opportunity Area-specific tariff.

An alternative mechanism which could be relevant in Southall is a Revolving Infrastructure Fund (RIF). This is a method for providing finance to projects where conventional private finance is considered unviable or too high risk to proceed. It involves providing upfront cash to pay (in whole or in part) for physical infrastructure, which enables the associated schemes to proceed thus unlocking development potential. Following the successful achievement of development value the RIF finance can be repaid and recycled into new schemes. Probably the easiest mechanism to raise the initial finance for a RIF programme would be for the council to use prudential borrowing.

There are a number of funding sources which could be used to directly fund infrastructure (subject to rules on eligibility, state aid and match-funding), or alternatively to raise an upfront lump sum for, or make repayments into, a RIF. The funding sources are described briefly below and represent options which could be further investigated by the client team.

• LIPS / other transport funding

• Crossrail Complementary Measures Funding

• New Homes Bonus

• Prudential Borrowing

• Business Rates Retention (BRR)

• Growing Places Fund

• Local Growth Fund

• Local Infrastructure Fund

• Mayor’s Regeneration Fund

• GLA Housing Zone

• European Structural and Investment Funds

Recommendations

In order to maximise funding from development, it is recommended that LBE carefully consider its strategy with regard to developer contributions. The most effective approach to accessing the surplus available from development may be to remove funding gap items in Southall from the CIL Regulation 123 list so that planning obligations can be negotiated for relevant items on these sites.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

The majority of the infrastructure funding gap relates to social infrastructure. While the eligibility criteria for funds such as the Growing Places Fund and the Local Infrastructure Fund do not explicitly limit eligibility according to project type, it is likely that the strongest candidates for these funds will be hard infrastructure and transport projects as these are typically the most obvious ‘showstoppers’ to growth. The most promising sources of additional funding for social infrastructure may therefore be prudential borrowing, NHB and other streams which form part of LBE’s wider capital programme.

There are a number of new funding pots available specifically aimed at forward-funding infrastructure with repayment later when land value is released, and Revolving Infrastructure Funds (RIFs) are also gaining attention as a concept and could have relevance to Southall. Establishing a RIF would require further feasibility work as well as consideration of issues such as staffing, monitoring and evaluation, and contractual arrangements.

If there were appetite for a greater level of involvement and financial commitment by the public sector, Compulsory Purchase Orders or a joint venture could be a way to maximise returns from development in the Opportunity Area.

The successful delivery of the OAPF will require joint-working amongst the key public sector stakeholders including planning policy officers, development planning officers, infrastructure providers, finance officers, the London LEP and the GLA, developers, local residents and businesses.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Aims

The Greater London Authority (GLA), in partnership with London Borough of Ealing (LBE) and Transport for London (TfL), is preparing a planning framework for the Southall Opportunity Area. The Opportunity Area Planning Framework (OAPF) aims to maximise the opportunities arising from growth for both existing and new communities, and to ensure growth is sustainable and in line with the vision and aspirations of the local community and other stakeholders. A draft of the Southall OAPF was published for public consultation in December 2013, and sets out the long term strategic vision for growth in the area.

Given the scale and nature of growth it is important that robust assessment of infrastructure needs and a clear strategy for its funding and delivery underpins the OAPF. The GLA, LBE and TfL have therefore commissioned URS, partnered with BNP Paribas Real Estate (BNPPRE), to undertake the Southall Opportunity Area Development Infrastructure Funding Study (DIFS).

The aims of this work are to:

• Assess and quantify the infrastructure required to deliver growth envisaged in the OAPF

• Assign capital costs to these infrastructure requirements and set out the timing of these costs

• Set out where funding had been partly or wholly committed and where funding is committed by developers, agencies and infrastructure providers

• Assess the capacity of development to fund infrastructure and an effective developer contributions strategy for Southall

• Prioritise infrastructure and articulate trade-offs; and

• Consider other sources of funding to unlock development.

Infrastructure schemes will also generate operational costs, for example equipment, energy building maintenance and salaries. Operational costs are expected to represent a comparatively small proportion of total scheme costs and, due to the difficulty in accurately identifying operational costs, have not been factored into the infrastructure costs assessment.

The Interim Report (March 2014) comprised a review of infrastructure requirements and capital costs associated with OAPF growth in order to establish the funding gap over the period to 2032. This Draft Final Report includes BNPPRE‘s viability analysis to establish the extent to which development is likely to be able to contribute to meeting the funding gap relating to OAPF infrastructure. Alternative sources of funding are also considered in particular public sector streams. Recommendations are made on how the client group can facilitate the delivery and funding of infrastructure requirements and therefore the OAPF as a whole.

1.2 Approach

URS has reviewed existing evidence on infrastructure needs, costs and funding in the Opportunity Area. This evidence comprised publically available documents and data, together

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

with information provided by the client group. Additional analysis has been undertaken to model requirements associated with social infrastructure and utilities to obtain a high level picture of the scale and timing of demand and potential gaps in provision and funding.

BNPPRE has undertaken site-specific viability appraisals of five sample sites using the residual land valuation approach. BNPPRE has also drawn on existing work on Southall sites and the local property market and recent recommendations on an appropriate CIL levy for LBE.

In developing recommendations for implementation, the consultant team has referred to the legislation and regulatory framework and drawn upon professional experience of advising clients on infrastructure funding and delivery elsewhere in London and the UK.

1.3 Report Structure

The remaining sections of this Interim Report are as follows:

• Section 2 sets out the context for growth in LBE and Southall and details the growth trajectory (quantum and timing of residential and non-residential development) which will drive the requirement for infrastructure in the Opportunity Area

• Section 3 describes the requirements for social infrastructure associated with growth including capital costs and funding gaps

• Section 4 covers transport infrastructure requirements

• Section 5 covers utilities and hard infrastructure

• Section 6 summarises the infrastructure funding gap for the Opportunity Area

• Section 7 sets out our analysis of development viability

• Section 8 contains our review of potential funding sources and delivery mechanisms

• Section 9 summarises the findings and sets out recommendations for implementation.

Appendix A contains the infrastructure schedule for the Opportunity Area listing out planned projects and requirements and summarising timing, costs and funding. Appendix B contains the viability appraisals.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

2. ANTICIPATED GROWTH

2.1 Introduction

This section describes the context for growth in LBE and Southall. It goes on to set out the assumptions regarding residential and employment growth in the Opportunity Area over the Local Plan period, and to describe how this feeds into the assessment of future infrastructure requirements and costs.

2.2 The Context for Growth

The LBE is the third largest London borough in terms of population and one of the most ethnically diverse. New homes are needed to accommodate the projected increase in population, and in particular to address a current lack of affordable homes for young families, a general trend of high house prices and a shortage of housing options for many households. 8 While there are some highly successful centres of economic activity in the borough, there are also pockets of severe economic deprivation indicating an urgent need to promote job creation and access to employment for local people.

The Southall Opportunity Area is located in the south west of LBE. The Uxbridge Road, a key growth corridor, runs through Southall, as well as the Great Western Railway. To the south the Opportunity Area is bounded by the Grand Union Canal. The arrival of Crossrail in 2018 will be the catalyst for substantial growth relating to the brownfield sites surrounding the station. Crossrail has the potential to support a change in the perceptions of Southall, to enhance values and increase the pace of development delivery, delivering new homes and jobs.

Southall is a populous and diverse place with a unique character and history. The area is densely populated and has seen a recent period of rapid population growth. A relatively low proportion of the population is of white ethnicity – around 14%, compared to the London average of 60% 9. The majority of the population of the Opportunity Area are Asian/ Asian British (66%). Almost 30% of the population are Sikh, and there are also high proportions of Muslim and Hindu residents compared to the London average. The Opportunity Area has a particularly young local population, with around a quarter under the age of 16. The local economy has a strong presence of independently owned businesses and speciality Asian food stores. While the area has many assets and a vibrant history, it also faces challenges and a number of economic, social and environmental constraints. For example:

• Census 2011 data indicates that residents in Southall are generally less qualified than across both London and England and Wales. • The DCLG Indices of Multiple Deprivation for England (2010) indicate that two of the four wards, Dormers Wells and Norwood Green, are the most deprived across Ealing 10 , with Southall Broadway and Southall Green the 6th and 12th most deprived respectively. • Significant areas of health deprivation exist in Dormer’s Wells, Norwood Green and Southall Broadway. Norwood Green ranks among the 10% most health deprived areas in the country.

8 Source: LBE Infrastructure Planning & Funding Gap Report February (2014) 9 ONS Census 2011. Data is presented for the four Opportunity Area wards: Dormers Wells, Norwood Green, Southall Broadway and Southall Green. 10 LBE, The Ealing Indices of Deprivation (2010)

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

• A higher proportion of residents of the Opportunity Area wards report having bad or very bad health (6.4%) than the London (5%) or England and Wales average (5.6%).

The demographic characteristics of the Opportunity Area have the potential to affect demand for infrastructure and the impacts of development. The Public Sector Equality Duty Act 2010 requires a consideration of such factors for vulnerable groups within the local population. These considerations have informed the approach to the DIFS. Of particular relevance is the assessment relating to social infrastructures such as schools, faith based facilities and health care.11

To ensure that the unique character of the area is considered in the future vision for Southall, LBE have undertaken a year-long consultation with the community (as part of a project called the Big Conversation). This consultation contributed to the creation of the Southall Charter, which set out key priorities for the area from the perspective of the resident community. Local priorities included improvements to pocket parks and the public realm; creating an education campus; the creation of a community hub facility; and boosting investment into the area. The DIFS will help to deliver these improvements. The DIFS takes into account and builds upon the outcomes of the Southall Charter and Big Conversation, and will feed into the continuation of that work.

2.3 Growth Trajectory

At the borough level, LBE’s Adopted Development Strategy (2012) projects 12,407 units from large sites over the plan period. The LBE Infrastructure Planning & Funding Gap Report February (2014) indicates that this housing trajectory has evolved and sets out a figure of 15,929 including 3,255 units from SHLAA small sites.

Within the SOA, ten sites within or in close proximity to the town centre have been identified on which new residential and commercial floorspace is expected to come forward from 2014 to 2032. Information has been gathered on these ten strategic sites using the following sources:

• Draft Southall OAPF (December 2013)

• Southall OAPF Transport Study (October 2013)

• Southall Gas Works Site (West Southall) Representation Hearing Report PDU/2310/04 (March 2010)

• Planning application documents for both consented schemes and schemes not yet determined

• Planning policy documents including the LBE Development Sites DPD, Final Proposals (2012) .

Information on the quantity of new homes and commercial floorspace anticipated to come forward on these sites was taken primarily from the 2013 OAPF Transport Study, ‘Table 2 Summary of proposed Southall development quantum for trip generation’. Amendments were

11 For example, the Health Impact Assessment undertaken for the Havelock Estate Regeneration Planning Application (Catalyst Housing 2013) indicated that emergency admissions among ethnic minority populations is particularly high, suggesting that this population may have a lack of access to appropriate health care.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

made to the estimated development quantum for SOU5 Southall West using the description of the approved outline planning proposals for the Southall Gasworks site, as set out on the above-mentioned GLA Representation Hearing Report, because the figures within the Transport Study for housing and commercial space were lower than the overall projections for SOU5 and the Opportunity Area as a whole contained within the Draft OAPF.

The key sites and the net new dwellings and commercial floorspace associated with each are set out in Table 2.1 below. It is estimated that from 2014 to 2032 there will be 5,913 net additional dwellings and 77,655 square metres (sqm) net additional non-residential floorspace.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 2.1 Net Residential Units and Commercial Floorspace within the Opportunity Area

Light Super- Office Retail Restaurant Hotel Leisure Ref Development Name Houses Flats Industrial market (sqm) (sqm) (sqm) (sqm) (sqm) (sqm) (sqm)

2014-17 Beaconsfield Road/South SOU3 64 559 558 Road SOU5 Southall West 412 412 2,088 2,813

SOU9 St John’s Church Hall 20 177 176

2018-22 SOU4 Southall Crossrail Station 205 3,310 805

SOU5 Southall West 901 9,01 3,500 2087.5 2,813 9,650 7,700

SOU6 Southall East 221 516 10,000 1,449 1,448

SOU7 Havelock 100 100

2023-32 SOU1 Southall Market 28 113 1500 485 485

SOU2 Iceland and Quality Foods 138 250 1000 581 580

SOU4 Southall Crossrail Station 25 26 1,029

SOU5 Southall West 563 563 5850 4,400 1750

SOU6 Southall East 55 129 2,500 724

SOU8 The Green 80 187 3,500 1,165

SOU10 Johnson Street 156 2,724

Sub-total 2,540 3,373 3,750 18,724 12,525 19,504 4354 11,098 7,700 Residential / Non- 5,913 units 77,655sqm residential totals Source: URS 22

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

The estimated breakdown of residential and commercial development by phase is shown below. Table 2.2 indicates that growth is concentrated in the later phases of the planning period. The phase from 2018-22 will have the highest number of residential units and commercial floorspace coming forward, with relatively little coming forward in the first phase from 2014-17.

Table 2.2 Phasing of Net New Residential and Commercial Floorspace

Phase Residential units Commercial floorspace (sqm) 2014-2017 908 6,370 2018-2022 2,943 42,762 2023-2032 2,062 28,523 Total 2014-2032 5,913 77,655 Source: URS

2.4 New Residents and Jobs

Requirements for new infrastructure are driven by the additional residents and jobs associated with growth. To estimate the new residential population, average household sizes or ‘occupancy rates’ were applied to the new dwellings coming forward, drawing on the 2011 Census.

• The occupancy rate for houses is based on the average occupancy for Southall (four wards of Dormers Wells, Norwood Green, Southall Broadway and Southall Green) which is 3.5 people per household.

• A lower occupancy rate has been used for flats. The occupancy rate for Southall reflects the high proportion of houses in the area, many of which are ‘family sized’ (ie. three beds or more). The developments to come forward in the town centre will have a higher proportion of flats than the existing housing stock, which may attract households of different composition. The occupancy rate used for flats in SOA is 2.7, which is the average occupancy across LBE.

The average household size for each typology is shown in Table 2.3 below. The ‘child yields’ - indicating the number of children per dwelling - are also shown; these are based on Census age profile data for Southall and for LBE. Child yield factors are shown for the age groups which are relevant for modelling demand for education and play space within the infrastructure model 12 .

12 The estimate of 0 to 3 year olds is relevant for early years education; 4 to 10 years for primary schools; and 11 to 15 years for secondary schools. Estimated demand for playspace is modelled for children aged 0 to 17. See Section 2 for further details on the infrastructure model methodology.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 2.3 Average Household Size and Child Yield Factors

Typology People per unit Children per dwelling, by key age groups

0 to 3 yrs 4 to 10 yrs 11 to 15 yrs 0 to 17 yrs

Houses 3.5 0.06 0.09 0.07 0.24

Flats 2.7 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.23 Source: Census 2011/ URS Analysis

New jobs arising have been estimated using standard employment densities according to the type of commercial floorspace to be developed. These are set out in Table 2.4 below.

Table 2.4 Employment Densities

Commercial floorspace type Employment Density

Office 12 m 2 per job

Light industrial 47 m 2 per job

Supermarket 17 m 2 per job

Retail 19 m 2 per job

Restaurant 18 m 2 per job

Hotel 0.33 jobs per bedroom

Leisure (cinema) 90 m 2 per job Source: HCA guidance (Employment Densities Guide - 2nd Edition 2010)

Using this methodology, it is estimated that over the 20 year planning period new development within the SOA will give rise to an additional 17,997 residents, of whom 4,403 will be aged 0 to 17, and 2,902 jobs will be generated. A breakdown by phase is shown in Tables 2.5 and 2.6.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 2.5 Residential Population by Phase

Phase All Residents * Children

0 to 3 4 to 10 11 to 15 0 to 17

2014-17 2,781 163 254 185 680

2018-22 8,923 523 815 593 2,183

2023-32 6,293 369 575 418 1,539

Total 17,997 1,055 1,643 1,196 4,403

Source: URS * Includes children

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 2.6 Job Creation by Phase

Light Super- Leisure Total Phase Office Retail Restaurant Hotel indust. market (cinema) jobs 2014-17 123 187 41 350

2018-22 292 212.77 123 399 44.72 101 86 1,257

2023-32 21 186 491 441 156 1,295

Total 313 398 737 1,027 242 101 86 2,902 Source: URS

2.5 Assessing Infrastructure Needs Arising from Growth

There is much existing information on infrastructure needs, costs and funding in the Opportunity Area. Our work has primarily comprised a review of existing evidence, including publically available documents and data and information provided by the client group.

Additional analysis has been undertaken and professional expertise employed to add to and build on existing information, where required and where possible within the scope of the work. For infrastructure types where demand can be logically linked to projected new housing and employment space, a model was used to estimate new demand arising from growth in the Opportunity Area. This information supplements that on planned projects and helps build a picture of the scale and timing of demand. The infrastructures which are modelled are education, healthcare, sports, open space, electricity, gas and water. Detail on the approach to modelling is described within each of the relevant infrastructure assessment sections, including detail on benchmarks and assumptions applied. In summary:

• Forecasts of new residents and jobs set out above drive the model

• For each infrastructure type, a benchmark assumption is applied (i.e. unit of infrastructure required per person / employee) to estimate gross demand

• To move from gross to net demand, any surplus capacity within existing infrastructure which is evident from a review of relevant information is subtracted from gross demand. New capacity associated with forthcoming projects, where this new capacity is reasonably certain to come forward, is also subtracted. This includes instances where forth-coming schemes have a signed Section 106 (s.106) agreement.

There are some infrastructure items for which details of the needs and costs are not known. This is to be expected as most planning and funding regimes look forward five to ten years and the OAPF attempts to consider the entire 20 year plan period. For some social infrastructure items which were modelled, broad brush assumptions on costs have been applied to estimate net costs over the entire plan period.

In establishing the funding gap we have drawn on available evidence on specific projects and programmes. In some instances deciding whether funding is sufficiently ‘committed’ to be taken off the funding gap requires a degree of interpretation. Where infrastructure is typically funded by government agencies or commercial providers it is likely that this funding will come forward in due course and we have reflected this in our analysis, even though as noted above while funding may not be confirmed yet for the entire duration of the plan period.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

3. SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE

3.1 Introduction

This section considers the infrastructure requirements arising for social infrastructure, covering education, primary health care, sports, open space and community facilities.

3.2 Primary Education

Primary education caters for pupils aged four to ten years old. Local authorities have a statutory requirement to ensure an adequate supply of school places.

The LBE Planning for Schools DPD consultation document (Oct 2013) indicates that borough- wide there is provision of 157 primary school forms of entry (FE), and that current provision is inadequate to meet short term demands. There has been recent expansion of 25.5FE with 14.5FE of further expansions and new schools planned. 13 A further 2.5FE was progressed going through statutory proposals stage during the autumn of 2013. Borough-wide provision of 14FE will cost £187.4m to 2026 with funding of £127,434,000 committed, leaving a funding gap of £60,000,000.

There are 14 primary schools that lie within the Opportunity Area. Table 3.1 sets out data on capacity of these schools in May 2012, indicating that there was a surplus of 135 places within primary schools within the Opportunity Area. If it is assumed that 95% occupancy should be planned for, as per Audit Commission Guidance 14 , there was a total surplus of 126 places for primary school children living within the Opportunity Area. 15 LBE project that the demand for places beyond existing and planned (and committed) capacity in areas Southall North and Southall South during 2015/16 will be 3.5 Form of Entry (FE). 16

13 Source: LBE Infrastructure Planning & Funding Gap Report (February 2014)

14 Source: Audit Commission, (1996); Trading Places, The Supply and Allocation of School Places (HMSO, London). 15 Khalsa VA Primary School, which opened in 2007, has not been taken into account in the calculations. There is currently a surplus of 180 places at this school. 16 Source: LBE Children’s Services (School Planning and Resources) Demography, Projections and School Place Planning Methodology (Sept 2013), Table 5.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 3.1: Primary Schools within the Opportunity Area

Number of Surplus Number of School Surplus/ Places at School Pupils – Places – Deficit (-ve) 95% May 2012 May 2012 capacity Beaconsfield Primary and Nursery 222 210 -12 -12 School Blair Peach Primary School 415 420 5 0 Clifton Primary School 318 315 -3 0 Dairy Meadow Primary School 413 399 -14 0 Dormers Wells Infant School 324 330 6 0 Dormers Wells Junior School 390 412 22 22 Featherstone Primary and Nursery 611 630 19 0 School Hambrough Primary School 418 372 -46 -46 Havelock Primary School 377 420 43 43 North Primary School 421 420 -1 0 St Anselm's Catholic Primary School 209 209 0 0 Three Bridges Primary School 363 360 -3 0 Tudor Primary School 346 405 59 59 Wolf Fields Primary School 360 420 60 60 Total 5,187 5,322 135 126 Source: Department for Education: Pupil Rolls and Capacity at Schools in England (2013)

The West Southall scheme will provide a 3,450sqm, 2FE junior school and nursery for 50 infants. Delivery is planned for 2015-20.

The LBE Planning for Schools DPD consultation document (Oct 2013) includes two additional sites in Southall on the ‘long list’ of sites to potentially be developed for new schools (primary and secondary): Southall East, and Southall Gateway/ Park Avenue. The draft OAPF also notes that an integrated 4-25 educational campus will be centred on the Beaconsfield Road campus of Ealing, Hammersmith and West London College.

The residential development trajectory and assumptions set out in Section 2 indicate that 1,591 children aged 4 to 10 could reside at new developments in the Opportunity Area. The infrastructure model indicates that demand for primary school places arising from new development in the Opportunity Area will be 229 places in phase 1, 733 places in phase 2, and 518 places in phase 3. Assuming that 7% of children attend private school, in line with the UK average, the total demand for state primary education is 1,480 places.

LBE are already committed to a new 2FE primary school at West Southall comprising a 50 place nursery. This will have a capacity of 420 places. This new provision will cater for primary education demand in phase 1 and meet some of the demand in phase 2, and reduce the total net demand for primary pupil places arising from OAPF residential development to 1,060. Net demand would therefore be 542 places in phase 2 and 518 places in phase 3. This implies a requirement for additional provision of 5.0FE during phases 2 and 3, or 2.5 new 2FE schools.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

An estimated cost for a new primary school is £8.76m, assuming each school accommodates 420 primary school places costing £19,000 per place and 60 nursery school places costing £13,000 per place. 17 It is likely that at least some of the cost for the new schools will be met through mainstream government funding. This study has assumed a funding gap for primary school education of £10.95m, as it is considered reasonable to assume that at least 50% of funding for the two new schools will come forward.

3.3 Secondary Education

Secondary education places are provided by the state maintained, voluntary aided, private and independent sectors. Local authorities have a statutory requirement to ensure an adequate supply of secondary school places.

The LBE Planning for Schools DPD consultation document (Oct 2013) states that existing secondary school provision borough-wide is 105 FE. Immediate plans for additional provision include 2FE at William Perkins secondary School, due to open in 2015, and potential expansion at Elthorne Park, Ellen Wilkinson and Greenford.

The LBE Infrastructure Planning & Funding Gap Report (2014) sets out longer term plans over the plan period (2014-2026) for an additional 21FE by 2019 and a further 9FE by 2026. Costs are identified as £154m over the plan period with committed funding of £33.1m to 2016 but a subsequent funding gap of £120.9m.

There are two secondary schools within Opportunity Area; Featherstone High School and Villiers High School. The data in Table 3.2 indicates that there was a total surplus of 76 places within these secondary schools in January 2013. There are two secondary schools in proximity to the Opportunity Area, Guru Nanak Sikh Academy (LB Hillingdon) and Dormers Wells High School, which together in January 2013 had a deficit of 71 places. There is no data available on current or forecast capacity in local schools. LBE project that the demand for places beyond existing and planned (and committed) capacity in Southall in 2019/20 will be 1.0FE. 18 Given that secondary school children can travel further to school than primary school children, the borough-wide picture of planned capacity is relevant.

Table 3.2 Secondary Schools within the Opportunity Area

Surpl us Number of Number of Surplus/ Places at School Pupils – Places – Deficit(-ve) 95% May 2012 May 2012 capacity Featherstone High School 1,523 1,627 104 23 Villiers High School 1,183 1,301 118 53 Total 2,706 2,928 222 76 Source: Department for Education: Pupil Rolls and Capacity at Schools in England (2013)

The residential development trajectory and assumptions set out in section 2 indicate that 1,110 children aged 11 to 15 could reside at new developments in the Opportunity Area. The infrastructure model indicates that demand for secondary school places in the Opportunity Area will be 160 places in phase 1, 511 places in phase 2, and 362 places in phase 3. This

17 Source: Gleeds Cost Management 2014 18 Source: LBE Children’s Services (School Planning and Resources) Demography, Projections and School Place Planning Methodology (Sept 2013), Table 6.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

assumes that 7% of children attend private school, in line with the UK average. Assuming that one secondary school accommodates 6FE and 900 pupils, total demand of 1,032 places over the plan period equates to 5.7FE and 1.1 new secondary schools. Applying a cost per place of £22,000 19 indicates a gross cost of £22.7m.

The LBE Planning for Schools DPD consultation document (Oct 2013) indicates that the potential school sites at Southern Gateway and East Southall could be primary or secondary schools. An integrated 4-25 educational campus will be centred on the Beaconsfield Road campus of Ealing, Hammersmith and West London College. As secondary school children can travel substantially further than primary school children, they are more likely to attend schools elsewhere in the LBE or in other Boroughs. Planned investment at a borough-level for an additional 21FE by 2019 and a further 9FE by 2026 could therefore help cater for some children residing in the Opportunity Area. Costs of the additional 21FE are identified as £154m over the plan period with committed funding of £33.1m to 2016 but a subsequent funding gap is identified of £120.9m. Potential funding sources are listed as the LBE Capital Programme, DfE funding, planning obligations, and other grants. The West Southall s.106 agreement included £4.3m towards the improvement of local secondary education provision.

The infrastructure model indicates a gross cost of £22.7m to cater for secondary school demand within the Opportunity Area. Taking into account the £4.3m already committed by the West Southall scheme, and assuming that 50% of the remaining funding will come forward from mainstream funding streams, this study assumes a funding gap of £9.2m for secondary school places. The available information indicates that while funds are in place to cater for increased demand in the immediate future additional provision will be required in the medium and longer term.

3.4 Primary Health Care

For the purpose of this report, primary health care is defined as incorporating general practitioner (GP) services and dental practitioners.

There are 16 GP practices within the Opportunity Area. At these 16 practices, there are 36 GPs (headcount rather than whole time equivalent). Table 3.3 indicates that there is an average patient list size of 2,629 patients per GP. Average patient list size appears higher than the general standard of 1,800 patients per whole time equivalent GP. The Draft OAPF states that no localised specific health care needs have been identified and that enhancement of the specialist residential dementia service currently provided at The Limes by the West London Mental Health NHS Trust will be supported. This could be achieved by relocation to a new purpose built facility in the immediate area.

19 Source: Gleeds Cost Management 2014

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 3.3 GP Practices within 1km of the Opportunity Area

Currently Number of GPs Number of Name accepting new (headcount) Patients patients? Dormers Wells Medical Centre 3 7,208 Yes Dr Hayat, F 1 3,720 Yes Dr M Alzarrad 1 3,263 Yes Dr Mangat, BS & Partner 3 8,732 Yes Dr Mohammad Alzarrad 1 1,932 Yes Dr Radhakrishnan, S 1 2,519 Yes Dr Saluja, RS 2 8,971 Yes Dr Sandhu Ps & Partner 2 5,265 Yes Dr Sandhu, AK 2 5,509 Yes Dr Singh G & Partners 3 11,254 Yes Dr UPPAL & partners 2 6,472 Yes Drs J & V Sanghera, Norwood Road 2 7,163 Yes Surgery Featherstone Road Health Centre 5 7,216 Yes K.S Medical Centre 2 4,914 Yes The MWH Practice - Southall 4 6,194 Yes Waterside Medical Centre 2 4,327 Yes Total 36 94,659

Source: NHS Choices 2014 Ref: NHS Choices website. http://www.nhschoices.gov.uk

The West Southall scheme is providing a new health centre with capacity for up to 8 GPs. This is due to be delivered between 2015 and 2020. The combined value of the school and health centre is £16.4 million (including the land cost). The 2,550 sqm facility is reasonably large for the number of GPs proposed; the London ‘Healthy Urban Development Unit’ (HUDU) model suggests 165sqm for a GP and associated primary healthcare services, reflecting changing models of service provision whereby GPs, dentists and other health and social care services are increasingly co-located in large ‘one stop shops’ in order to increase service effectiveness and cost efficiency.

The residential development trajectory and assumptions set out in Section 2 indicate that 17,997 new residents of the Opportunity Area could require primary healthcare services. Based on an assumption of 1,800 patients per GP, the infrastructure model indicates gross demand of 10 GPs (1.5 GPs in phase 1, 5.0 GPs in phase 2, and 3.5 GPs in phase 3). However the 8 new GPs within the new West Southall health centre will cater for much of this demand; factoring this in reduces net demand within the Opportunity Area to 2 new GPs in phase 3.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Assuming 165 sqm is required for 1GP and a capital cost of £2,380 per sqm 20 , a cost of £785,400 would be associated with 2 GPs. As at least some mainstream funding is typically provided for primary health care facilities, 50% of this cost (£392,700) is included within the Opportunity Area funding gap.

3.5 Sports

This section considers publicly accessible sports courts, swimming pools and pitches. It is noted that some people may choose to use privately operated sports courts and swimming pools as part of health clubs or fitness centres if these types of private providers choose to open new facilities within the Opportunity Area. There is also an overlap with the outdoor facilities covered in the next section.

LBE, in partnership with the Greenwich Leisure Limited (GLL) charitable social enterprise, provides sport and leisure centres under the ‘Better Leisure Centres in Ealing’ initiative. There are two facilities in the Opportunity Area:

• The Swift Road Outdoor Sports Centre, close to the Havelock Estate, provides two multi-use games areas (MUGA) including tennis, netball and basketball courts and astro turf football pitches 21 . The Centre provides ramped access with accessible toilets; changing facilities and parking. Car parking is free at the Centre.

• Southall Sports Centre, located on Beaconsfield Road, is open five days per week. The Centre includes a sports hall, gym, female gym, sauna, dance studio and treatment room. The Centre provides a variety of sports, classes and fitness sessions ranging from basketball, badminton, martial arts and football to gym training, boxercise and body toning. A range of programmes specifically aimed at older adults (the ‘Staying Active’ programme) is also run at the Centre and includes indoor bowls, table tennis and badminton.

The Warren Farm sports facility to the south-east of the OA on Windmill Lane is also open seven days a week and is one of the largest sports facilities run by LBE. The site offers football, cricket, rugby and hockey pitches to the public and offers full changing and shower facilities as well as a free car park.

The 2010 planning application for the West Southall scheme 22 indicated that the local area is considered to suffer from a deficiency in access to swimming pools, though it noted that the £14m Botwell Green Leisure complex has recently opened in Hayes in the London Borough of Hillingdon. This complex includes a 25 metre long, eight-lane swimming pool with viewing gallery and learner pool. A financial contribution of £975,000 was made for be made for a new swimming pool in Southall (no site had been identified at the time).

The West Southall scheme includes a sports pavilion on site that would be provided in association with the large public park. Tennis courts and all weather pitches are also provided on site.

20 Source: Gleeds Cost Management 2014 21 Source: Havelock Estate Regeneration Planning Application, Health Impact Assessment, Catalyst Housing (2013) 22 Source: Greater London Authority Representation Hearing Report PDU/2310/04, Southall Gas Works Site (West Southall), planning application nos. P/2008/3981-S and 54814/APP/2009/43025 (March 2010)

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

LBE Infrastructure Planning & Funding Gap Report February (2014) refers to a number of projects which could help cater for demand arising from the Opportunity Area but may not be relevant or be too far afield for residents to access. 23

Sport England’s Sports Facilities calculator 24 assesses the gross demand for sports facilities arising from new population, taking account of the demographic profile and cost variations for the Local Authority in question. For an additional 17.977 people in LBE, the calculator identities gross demand for:

• 3.75 pool lanes (0.94 pools) at a cost of £3.04m

• 5.33 courts (1.33 halls) at a cost of £4.02m

• 0.86 indoor bowls rinks (0.14 centres) at a cost of £265,144

• 0.16 artificial pitches (sand and 3G) at a cost of £1.08m.

Total costs are £8.04m.

Using the Sport England Sports Facilities calculator we estimate that the net additional demand for indoor bowls rinks and artificial pitches arising from the OAPF is significantly lower than the provision of a single bowls rink centre or a single artificial pitch. Any provision of a bowls rink centre or an artificial pitch should therefore be designed and appropriately located to cater for demand arising across the borough.

Quantitative information on the baseline is limited. Planned new facilities and improvements to existing facilities in the local area may help cater for the needs arising from new Opportunity Area residents, and there is also likely to be some government and third sector funding for these facilities. This study has assumed that 75% of cost identified above will be met in this way, and included an indicative amount of £2.10m within the funding gap for the Opportunity Area. In the short term however it is likely that the council will focus on improving access to existing facilities rather than providing new facilities.

3.6 Open Space and Play Space

Public open space is defined in the London Plan 2011 as public parks, commons, heaths and woodlands and other open spaces with established and unrestricted public access and capable of being classified according to the open space hierarchy which meets recreational and non-recreational needs. The benefits of sufficient, high quality open space contributing to a green infrastructure network include a better environment and sense of place, encouragement of non-motorised transport modes, and improved mental and physical health.

Information regarding the provision of open spaces in the LBE is provided in its Open Space Strategy (2012). Table 3.4 identifies open space within the Opportunity Area.

23 Community and leisure Borough-wide Infrastructure Renewal Programme (£4.5m funding gap); Acton Town Hall Project (new leisure centre, swimming pools, library and community space - fully funded); replace Gurnell Leisure Centre (funding gap of £24m); sports pitches improvement at Rectory Park, Ealing Central Sports Ground (funding gap of £2.5m).

24 http://www.sportengland.org/facilities-planning/planning-for-sport/planning-tools-and-guidance/sports- facility-calculator/ Accessed 22nd March 2014

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 3.4: Parks Within and Near the Opportunity Area

Name Ward Glade Centre Canalside Local Park Norwood Green Bixley Fields Small Local Park Norwood Green Havelock Road Estate Playground Norwood Green Swift Road Outdoor Sports Centre Southall Green Southall Local Park Southall Broadway Southall Recreation Ground Local Park Southall Green Havelock Cemetery Southall Green Hortus Cemetery. Southall Green Manor House Grounds Southall Green Source: URS Research 2014; LBE Green Space Strategy 2012-2022 (2011)

In addition to the open spaces listed in Table 3.4 there are a number of large open spaces within the surrounding area which with improved connections could be more easily accessed from the SOA. This includes Norwood Green, Osterley Sports Ground and Fields, Dormers Wells, Brookside and Minet Countryside Park. Figure 3.1 provides a strategic overview of the public realm and green spaces network within the surrounding area.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure 3.1: Public Realm and Green Spaces Network

Source: GLA/LBE, 2013; Southall Opportunity Area Planning Framework

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 3.5 gives the details of the four play spaces available within the Opportunity Area. There are also a number of play spaces adjacent to the Opportunity Area. These include Norwood Green Local Park and Minet Countryside Park, which provide children’s play facilities, and Norwood Green Playing Fields, Warren Farm Local Park and Spikes Bridge Park which all provide sports pitches.

Table 3.5 Play Spaces within the Opportunity Area

Name of Space Ward Facilities Children’s playground, 5-a-side football Glade Centre Canalside Local Norwood Green pitched, BMX track, skateboard ramp and Park basketball court Havelock Road Estate Norwood Green Children’s playground Playground Southall Local Park Southall Broadway Children’s playground and tennis courts Southall Recreation Ground Tennis courts, football pitches, cricket Southall Green Local Park pitches and changing facilities Source: URS Research 2014; LBE Green Space Strategy 2012-2022 (2011)

The Draft OAPF notes that the Southall Broadway and Southall Green Wards (which form the majority of the OA) have some of the lowest public open space provision in the borough at 0.74ha and 0.55ha respectively per 1,000 population, as compared to the borough average of 1.95ha per 1000 population. The area has both a district and local park deficiency, meaning that the parks that do exist in the local area are particularly important and the quality needs to be high with a range of facilities.

The West Southall scheme will include 24.4ha of open space including 4.6ha as communal garden space, 13.5ha as public open space and 2.5ha of children’s playspace. The largest area of open space, ‘central park’, would be located on the area of the redundant gasholders and infrastructure to be removed and would include a village green/cricket pitch, seven sports pitches, community gardens, an ornamental garden and wetlands with board walks for inclusive access. In addition financial contributions have been made as follows:

• £60,000 towards the for refurbishment and provision of additional play equipment on the Spencer Street open space

• £100,000 towards the provision of allotments

• £262,000 towards the provision and maintenance of street trees on the Spine Road

• £400,000 towards the provision of additional burial space at Greenford Cemetery

• £596,000 towards implementation of public realm improvements

The draft OAPF identifies a requirement for a small local park (0.8ha to 1ha) within East Southall, including areas for relaxation/ leisure and children’s play space. Southall East: play space within new local park

A multifunctional linear green space of approximately 1.7ha with distinct character areas is planned at the Havelock Estate, linking to a canalside park, with nature conservation value and natural play areas, and canalside square, as well as upgraded youth play provision at Bixley Fields.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

A number of other projects could increase the quantum and quality of open spaces accessible to new residents of the OAPF:

• The Draft OAPF notes that perceived and actual accessibility of the large areas of open land on the fringes of the Opportunity Area, including Minet Country Park, Glade Lane, Canalside Park, and Osterley Park, will be improved by providing pedestrian access over the canal and ensuring that surrounding development provides clear and direct routes to these areas, including sightlines where possible

• Public realm projects which will improve the quality of the local environment will include the Southall Broadway Major Scheme (Urban realm improvements, 2010- 2015), Improving South Road Streetscape (2013-17), and Great Streets.

• The LBE Infrastructure Planning & Funding Gap Report (2014) also notes two Borough-wide capital projects which may be relevant as follows:

o Parks infrastructure renewal including footpath, fencing, signage, bins and benches; the cost and funding gap for this item is £2m with funding anticipated to come from mainstream government funds and s.106

o Playground renewal, Borough-wide, total cost and funding gap over plan period is Parks is £1m, assumed to come from Capital Programme and s.106.

LBE’s Development Management DPD indicates the following policy standards for new development:

• Public open space (POS) provision, 19.5sqm per person

• Children’s play space, 10sqm per child

• Allotments, 1.7sqm per person

• Active Recreation, 7.4sqm per person

Based on these standards, the infrastructure model indicates that gross demand arising from the new residents within the Opportunity Area to be approximately 35ha of public open space, 4.2ha of child play space, 3.0ha of allotments and 13.3ha of active recreation space.

Table 3.6: Opportunity Area Gross Demand for Open Space

Phase Residents Open Space Requirement (sqm) Active Public Open Child Play Allotments Recreation Space Space Space 2014-17 2,781 54,233 6,559 4,728 20,581 2018-22 8,923 174,004 20,979 15,170 66,032 2023-32 6,293 122,706 14,823 10,697 46,565 Total 17,997 350,943 42,362 30,595 133,179 Source: LBE/ URS Analysis (numbers may not always sum due to rounding)

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

There is a lack of quantitative information on the baseline and planned provision in the local area. Provision at West Southall alone (13.5ha public open space and 2.6ha play space) will meet a large proportion of the gross demand (approximately 40% and 60% respectively). Schemes at Havelock Estate (1.7ha public open space) and Southall East (new 1ha public local park) will also increase the provision of public open space locally. In addition as noted above there are a number of large public open spaces on the edge of the Opportunity Area and improving access to these spaces will be an important element of the strategy for meeting open space requirements.

As cost information is lacking for these various types of open space, they have not been included within the funding gap for this study.

3.7 Community and Regeneration

A range of facilities can be regarding as providing amenity to the community. While some facilities such as community halls and libraries tend to be owned and operated by public sector agencies, other such as faith facilities are owned by the private or third sector. Development proposals often include facilities such as cinemas, cafes, shops and restaurants which while commercially operated provide spaces and opportunities for recreation and social interaction.

Southall is characterised by a diverse population with pockets of pronounced deprivation which implies that consideration of these community assets and the impact of projected growth upon them is an important element of the DFIS.

Many of Southall’s cultural and faith assets are located near The Green, including the Manor House, the Dominion Arts Centre, Southall Library and the Gurdwara Sri Guru Singh Sabha Southall. The strengthening of the Dominion Centre as a multifunctional community hub with new library will contribute to the reinvigoration of the neighbourhood centre and the wider Opportunity Area. The redevelopment of the Dominion Centre is currently underway and is due to be completed by 2016. The LBE Infrastructure Planning & Funding Gap Report (2014) identifies costs as £3.049m and indicates funded is committed via the LBE Capital Programme.

Many of the major sites to come forward within the Opportunity Area include space within D1, D2 or A use spaces which are likely to play a role in meeting the needs of new development for recreation and cultural activities. A number of specific projects at various stages of planning can be identified:

• The redeveloped Havelock Estate will provide a vibrant community ‘hub’ close to the canal including a community centre, shops and a café. The proposals also include £1m community regeneration fund with a £100,000 community chest to support community projects. This fund is expected to meet operational costs for community projects, not provide funding for capital works. 25

• Part of the Southern Gateway site is owned and occupied by the Gurdwara Sri Guru Singh Sabha for community uses and as a place of worship. Measures to accommodate the facility within the redevelopment plans, including consideration of relocation to more suitable premises, are being considered. It is acknowledged that regardless of location the continued operation of the Gurdwara Sri Guru Singh Sabha, throughout all phases of development, is an essential requirement.

25 http://www.chg.org.uk/development-regeneration/regeneration/regeneration-schemes/havelock/ Accessed 21st March 2014

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

• The Draft OAPF details the transformation of the Western Road public open space to create the new King’s Centre community venue/memorial garden and public space to the front of St John’s Church Hall. The Kings Centre has aspirations for redevelopment of the existing facility into to high quality interfaith hub, community facility and heritage centre.

• The West Southall scheme includes 4,700sqm of leisure floorspace as a multi-screen cinema.

A number of additional programmes are identified in the LBE Infrastructure Planning & Funding Gap Report (2014) which will lead to benefits for the community. These include investment into the use of the Manor House is a priority and specifically the Dine in Southall - Employment & Skills, Hospitality & Catering Training, including Apprenticeships. Costs are identified as £1.5m with £0.85m committed via Mainstream Funding, implying a funding gap of £0.65m.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

4. TRANSPORT

4.1 Introduction

This section identifies and considers the current transport infrastructure in Southall. Constraints and proposed mitigation to support the growth in the Southall Opportunity Area are reviewed based upon available information and considering all relevant modes. The principal information sources are:

• Draft Southall Opportunity Area Planning Framework (2013)

• OAPF Transport Study (2013)

• OAPF Highway Modelling Conclusion Report (2013)

• LBE Development sites DPD Final Proposals (June 2012)

• The London Plan (2011)

• The Mayor’s Transport Strategy (2010)

• LBE Borough Transport Strategy 2009

• LBE Local Implementation Plan (2011).

Further information that informed the review was a MS Excel file titled ‘Projects Summary’ received from LBE via e-mail on 20th March 2014.

The geographic scope of the Opportunity Area is confirmed in Figure 4.1 to also provide an overview of strategic infrastructure in the vicinity. It is well connected to the strategic transport network with road and rail routes to north and central London and to the south and west via connections including via the M25.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure 4.2: Local Transport Infrastructure

Source: URS

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

4.2 Relevant Policy

The Mayor’s Transport Strategy

The Mayor’s Transport Strategy (MTS) was published in 2010 detailing challenges faced by the London transport system, goals hoped to be achieved, and the policy and proposals to do so. Although this does not mention Southall specifically it is evident that the proposed infrastructure for the Southall Opportunity Area is in line with the various policies of the strategy, Crossrail and Great Western line improvements being the most obvious examples. In addition bus priority measures, safety, better streets and the blue ribbon policy; to open up access around water ways, all stand along with the measures proposed.

Local Implementation Plan

The LBE Local Implementation Plan (LIP) is Ealing borough’s transport plan. The final LIP was approved by the Mayor of London 12th October 2011. This sets out the policies of the MTS tailoring them to meet the needs of the borough and details how they can be implemented over the period 2011 to 2014 (although with an extension beyond this period agreed with TfL). The LIP’s main aims for transport are to improve accessibility and reduce the contribution transport has on climate change. As such a key part of the LIP is the Ealing 2026 development strategy which aims to push new development into the Uxbridge / Crossrail corridor, to provide it with a strong access to transport links. The Opportunity Area fits into this corridor meaning that the proposed developments are all in line also. However the LIP does highlight that Southall north south corridor is in need of improvement. This consists of South Road with The Green and Western Road to the south west and Merrick Road and A3005 Norwood Road to the south east. The LIP also highlights Western Road as an example of significant variation in average speed, with its average speed varying between 7mph to 14mph in the peak hours as stated in the Transport Strategy. The Southall Broadway improvements are listed as part of the programme of major schemes. However these improvements have now been completed or are due for completion before the end of 2014.

London Plan

The London Plan was published July 2011 with Further Alterations to the London Plan issued October 2013. The London Plan is the overall strategic plan for London, which gives a framework for the development of London over the next 20-25 years including economic, environmental, social as well as transport elements. Although the London Plan is a generic plan across all the London boroughs there are elements that run in parallel with proposed infrastructure measures within the Southall Opportunity Area. Part of the strategy is Better Streets which aims to facilitate urban realm improvements alongside improved way finding with schemes such as Legible London. Crossrail is a key part of the strategy with Southall Station being identified for redevelopment as a Crossrail station. Another strategy is to reduce freight movement on the road network by encouraging use of rail. A proposal to maintain or improve the Brentford branch line in the Southall Opportunity Area supports this strategy. The Blue Ribbon network strategy has also been reflected in the Southall OAPF with new pedestrian and cycle bridges and links.

Ealing Borough Transport Strategy 2009

The Ealing Borough Transport Strategy outlines the council’s approach to improving transport within the borough whilst working to achieve other objectives such as reducing congestion, improving public transport and encouraging use of cycling and walking. The Strategy highlights a number of constraints faced by the borough including the variation in average speed on some key roads including the Western Road as highlighted by the LIP. The Transport Strategy goes on to set out mitigation to improve the current situation including

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Crossrail where it states the corresponding station redevelopments should include cycle hubs, pedestrian crossing and improved interchange with the bus network, and also the West Southall redevelopment. It also suggests a feasibility study into the possibility of a new bridge to the east of Southall Station which would extend Merrick Road over the railway. More recent documentation such as the draft OAPF proposes such a link but for cycles and pedestrians only. The Transport Strategy also includes the possibility of improving road links to the Great Western Industrial Estate and the Glade Lane, Bridge road areas (effectively the East Southallsite) to ease the north south traffic travelling through Southall town centre. Although putting forward new roads to open up areas for development the transport strategy has a strong focus on encouraging use of public transport, cycling and walking to meet the objectives to reduce the boroughs transport impact on climate change and to improve air quality. Proposed measures include walking routes from the West Southall redevelopment northwards towards the town centre, and re-routing bus routes to serve the development areas.

4.3 Existing Supply

Background

Running through the OAPF area is the A4020 and A3005. Other main roads that fall outside the area include the A312 and A4127 and the M4 via junction 3. The structure of the highway network means that the A4020 may be the principal route for local traffic north of the railway to access the Strategic Road Network for long distance travel and will attract traffic not only from within the area but also from neighbouring parts of Ealing.

Southall station provides connections to Reading, Paddington, and Oxford with Heathrow airport also served by Heathrow Connect services. This provides opportunities for wider travel by local residents to access a broad array of employment opportunities.

Strategic transport infrastructure within the OAPF area is illustrated in Figure 4.2 highlighting that the railway cuts the Opportunity Area in two, with crossing opportunities limited to the A3005 limiting north-south movement. Similarly the canal running along the southern boundary of the OA has limited crossing points to areas further south, although it is not such as constraint as the railway imposes.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure 4.3 Strategic Transport Infrastructure

A4127

A4020

A3005 M4

A312

Source: URS

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Southall is generally well served by bus routes with most places within 640m of a bus service, this being the walk distance used in Public Transport Accessibility Levels for access to bus stops. The notable exception to this is the area served by Armstrong Way of A4127 Windmill Lane, which can require a walk of approximately 900m to 1km to access bus services.

Bus routes provide for travel to locations such as Heathrow, Hillingdon, Hounslow and Central London. These offer interchange for further onward travel. Bus services are:

• E5 • 105 • 427

• H32 • 120 • 482

• 95 • 195 • 607

The different modes are addressed separately below to consider constraints identified as part of the review. They are illustrated in Figure 4.3 and listed in Table 4.1 below for reference (note that NMU stands for Non Motorised User, i.e. walking and cycling combined).

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure 4.4: Constraints Identified from the Evidence Review

Source: URS Numbering refers to individual transport schemes as set out in Appendix A.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 4.1: Constraints Identified from the Evidence Review

ID Item Mode Description

Extension of Road Negative impact modelled on journey times 1 Southbound bus lane on South road West Southall Road Negative impact modelled on journey times 2 Eastern Access The Green / South Road Lengthy queuing 3 Road junction Current pedestrian environment not adequate to cater for Road 4 Southall Station demand from proposed developments

Bus/rail Poor rail/bus interchange, lacks connection with town centre 5 Southall Station

Poor local access, causes congestion and stops large HGVs International Road 6 from accessing estate. Trading Estate

Non Cause severance - South Road bridge only bridge across Motorised the railway in Opportunity Area other than Uxbridge Road on 7 Railway lines Users the Eastern boundary. The change in level needed to cross (NMU) the line also an issue.

8 Canals NMU Severance

Limited rail service on Great Western Mainline/Heathrow 9 Southall Station Rail Connect. 4-6 trains per hour stopping at Southall Station

Unpleasant, heavy motorised traffic volumes, poor quality 10 Cycle Cycle cycle routes across the OA

Unpleasant, heavy motorised traffic volumes, poor quality 11 Walk Ped routes and connections across the OA

12 South Road Road Major congestion both directions

A4020 Uxbridge 13 Road Major congestion both directions Road

Negatively impacted by road congestion through the OA, 14 Bus routes Bus e.g. South Road, Uxbridge Road

15 Road network Road ‘A’ roads v/c greater than 80% throughout the OA

Delays at Pump Lane and Hayes Road in both directions 16 A312 The Parkway Road during peak

17 Hayes Road Road Severe delays PM peak

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

ID Item Mode Description

18 Western Road Road Large variation average speed 7mph -14mph

Source: URS

Road

Currently the road network in the OAPF area exceeds effective capacity, with the OAPF stating that the A roads have a volume over capacity ratio greater than 80%; this results in congestion. A3005 South Road and A4020 Uxbridge Road both suffer major congestion in both directions with long queues at The Green/ South Road junction immediately south of Southall Station and on several bus routes. In addition journey time reliability is an issue with average speeds in the peaks on Western Road varying from 7mph to 14mph.

Rail

In spite of Southall Station’s good connections the Southall Opportunity Area Planning Framework notes that there is currently a limited stopping service on the Great Western Mainline and Heathrow Connect, with four to six trains stopping at Southall station per hour.

The station is not well connected with the town centre and lacks step free access.

Bus

Bus routes currently suffer from the impacts of congestion, particularly on South Road and Uxbridge Road. In spite of the high number of routes providing interchange at Southall Station, the interchange is considered to be poor and not sufficient to cater for anticipated future demand.

Walking and Cycling

Walking and cycling within the Opportunity Area is currently unpleasant with poor quality cycle and pedestrian routes and connections made worse by large volumes of heavy goods vehicles. The railway lines running across the area and the canals bordering are a significant cause of severance. A3005 South Road is the only road crossing the railway within the area with A4127 Uxbridge Road on the eastern border.

4.4 Demand for Travel during Plan Period

The London Plan 2011 classifies Southall as an Opportunity Area which is able to provide at least 4,000 additional homes and 2,000 additional jobs, with the OAPF Highway Modelling report forecasting an additional 6,000 homes when including the West Southall development with the remaining development proposed for the opportunity area.

The development land parcels assumed in the Southall OAPF Transport Study are illustrated in Figure 4.4. The indicative development phasing associated with the Opportunity Area shown in Figure 4.5.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure 4.5: Southall OAPF Development Areas

Source: Southall OAPF Transport Study Report (Aecom, 03/12/2013)

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure 4.6 Indicative Timescales used in OAPF Transport Study

Source: Southall OAPF Transport Study Report, (Aecom, 03/12/2013)

To derive trip rates the Southall OAPF Transport Study generated forecasts for medium and long term scenarios using the TfL Transport Assessment Best Practice Guidance (April 2010). The resulting tables, provided below as Figure 4.7 and Figure 4.8 for reference are taken from the Southall OAPF Transport Study and summarise the trip generation for the proposed developments. The distribution of this demand has been broadly considered using the existing evidence base presented in available documentation, in particular the Southall OAPF Transport Study.

Total vehicle trip generation in the AM peak is 1,538 vehicles two-way per hour, approximately 26 vehicles per minute across the area. In the PM peak there are a total of 1,442 vehicles per hour two-way or approximately 24 vehicles per minute. This level of demand may not generate significant additional network stress on its own but this does not include for background growth.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure 4.7: AM Peak Summary of Development Trip Generation

Source: Southall OAPF Transport Study Report, (Aecom, 03/12/2013)

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure 4.8 PM Peak Summary of Development Trip Generation

Source: Southall OAPF Transport Study Report, (Aecom, 03/12/2013)

4.5 Planned Provision

The review of the evidence base has established a significant number of schemes identified by LBE and others to address needs and constraints within the Opportunity Area. These are considered below.

The extent to which the schemes specifically address demand associated with the Opportunity Area is not considered in detail here though this is covered below. As well as meeting the demand arising from OAPF development, many of the schemes will address background constraints and offer strategic benefits for a wider geographical area than the Opportunity Area.

The schemes identified as part of the review are mapped in Error! Reference source not found. and listed in Appendix A (with the numbering of schemes in Figure 4.8 cross referenced to Appendix A ), which also includes an explanation of how the intervention supports the OA in the ‘Notes’ column. Each of the modes is addressed in turn below.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure 4.9: Proposed Schemes Identified from the Review

Source: URS Numbering refers to individual transport schemes as set out in Appendix A.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Road

Much of the planned road provision is new links to or through development sites, such as the West Southall primary route with a connector road proposed to link to South Road and a new signalised junction to link the West Southall development with the A312 Parkway. For the East Southall development a new link road to connect Merrick Road to Armstrong Way via Bridge Road is under investigation along with Grand Union Avenue, a new road from Merrick Road to Havelock with new junctions to link it to the existing network. Alongside the potential new infrastructure are schemes to upgrade the existing road infrastructure. Many of these are linked with South Road as are outlined below:

• The South Road bridge widening to provide an additional lane;

• Changes to lane configuration on South Road;

• Increase flare at Beaconsfield Road and South Road junction; and

• Widening of South Road junction with Merrick Road.

In addition there is the Armstrong Way / Windmill Lane junction redesign which will replace the existing gyratory with a roundabout.

Rail

The Crossrail line once opened will provide Southall with a direct link to central London and Canary Wharf, significantly reducing journey times to the West End from forty-five to just eighteen minutes. Crossrail is expected to be a catalyst for much of the development in the Southall Opportunity Area. In addition to Crossrail there is a proposal to maintain or improve the Brentford Branch Line for freight use.

LB Hounslow is currently progressing a study into restoration of passenger services on the Brentford Branch Railway, which could provide for residents and employees of the Opportunity Area. This is not essential to delivery of the OAPF and is not sufficiently well progressed to consider within this study.

Bus

An extension of the South Road bus lane is planned between The Broadway and Beaconsfield Road, an improved interchange planned as part of the Crossrail redevelopment of Southall Station and new or amended services to cover Southall East, Havelock and West Southall development sites.

Non-Motorised Users (NMU)

Improved connections in the area for walking and cycling and to enhance the public realm are best illustrated in the Vision for Southall in the Draft Southall Opportunity Area Planning Framework , reproduced as A number of cycle and pedestrian links are proposed to complement the development sites:

• A proposed cycle and foot bridge over the railway connecting Merrick Road and Park Avenue connecting East Southall; and

• New cycle links to connect Glade Lane and Havelock, potentially including an Eastern access.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure 4.10 . It highlights how connections through and within the area shall be improved to help with reducing severance. The inclusion of the Blue Ribbon network in the Southall Opportunity area will improve access to the canals running through Southall for pedestrians and cyclists.

A number of cycle and pedestrian links are proposed to complement the development sites:

• A proposed cycle and foot bridge over the railway connecting Merrick Road and Park Avenue connecting East Southall; and

• New cycle links to connect Glade Lane and Havelock, potentially including an Eastern access.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure 4.10: Draft OAPF Vision for Southall

Source: Southall Opportunity Area Planning Framework, (LBE/ Mayor of London/ Transport for London, Dec 2013)

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Cycle

Further to the NMU schemes, two quietways are proposed; Ealing to Southall and Southall to Hounslow. As part of the Southall Station Crossrail redevelopment a new cycle hub is proposed at the station.

Pedestrian

Pedestrian realm improvements are proposed as part of wider schemes such as new crossings as part of the Merrick Road and Norwood Road Safety Schemes and the Crossrail redevelopment of Southall Station. The ‘High Street Shoulders’ scheme which is an extension of the Broadway Project to cover the High Street east of the South Road junction would also improve conditions for pedestrians but is currently unfunded. Similarly there are proposed safety and accessibility improvements along King Street and The Green. A number of these schemes are combined within the Southall Great Streets Programme.

Other schemes proposed are the implementation of Legible London which will help improve way finding throughout Southall. There are also proposals for two new pedestrian bridges across the canal between West Southall and Minet Country Park.

The final scheme proposed is the Acupuncture points, which are urban realm improvements to eight public spaces. These predominantly tie in with safety and accessibility improvements along King Street and The Green with urban realm improvements planned at the following sites:

• Saint Anselm’s Church

• Manor House Square and Parade

• Dominion Corner

• Western Road Corner

• Norwood Road Corner.

In addition there are plans to create a square in front of the old Odeon on High street and urban realm improvements to Southall Park and to improve signage and Southall Station.

4.6 Phasing

The baseline evidence does not provide conclusive or comprehensive details of phasing for all the transport interventions planned for the OA. However available information is reviewed below.

Table 4.2 summarises data from Tables 2.2 , 2.5 and 2.6 of this report showing cumulative growth in population and jobs, forecast up until 2032. Figure 4.10 indicates that the most significant growth, both in terms of population and to a lesser extent jobs, is within the phase 2018-2022. It is in these five years that the population increases 50% of the forecast total for the opportunity area and jobs by 43% of the total forecast increase. By 2022 65% of the forecast population growth is predicted to have occurred and 55% of the total jobs growth.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 4.2 Residential and Commercial Forecast Growth 26

Residential Commercial Percentage Percentage Floor Phase of total of total Units Population space Jobs population jobs (sqm) increase increase 2014-2017 908 2,781 15% 6,370 350 12% 2018-2022 2,943 8,923 50% 42,762 1,257 43% 2023-2032 2,062 6,293 35% 28,523 1,295 45% Total 5,913 17,997 100% 77,655 2,902 100%

Figure 4.11 Forecast Growth of Population and Jobs in the Opportunity Area 27

This implies that much of proposed infrastructure will need to be in place by 2022, in particular the larger items that unlock significant capacity.

26 Source: URS analysis – see Chapter 2 for details 27 Source: URS analysis – see Chapter 2 for details

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure 4.6 shows that SOU3 Beaconsfield, SOU9 St John’s, and SOU4 Crossrail are anticipated to be completed by 2022, with SOU5 West Southall and SOU6 East Southall in progress.

The Southall Gas Works Site Representation Hearing Report (GLA 2010) details phasing for the infrastructure required as part of West Southall’s planning consent. However the indicative timing is now out of date. Phasing has been revised as if works will commence in 2015, this is summarised in Table 4.3 (this should be considered indicative only to inform this report). Development at West Southall is limited to 2,500 units until the bridge widening is completed. The timelines below indicate bridge widening could be delivered in 2024. As noted above, much of the OA development is due to come forward or be in progress by 2022, including many sites in the eastern half of the Opportunity Area, on both sides of the railway within close proximity to South Road. On this basis it may be prudent for widening of South Road bridge to be brought forward in order to facilitate development in the OA. As part of the West Southall planning approval, LBE have requested that improvement works on the South Road/A4020 Uxbridge Road junction, South Road/Beaconsfield Road junction and the South Road/Merrick Road junction are completed before the South Road bridge is widened, to reduce the impacts of any congestion caused by the bridge works. It is desirable that works over the railway or in support of the station should be completed by 2019 because of the additional disruption that would be caused once Crossrail is in place.

Table 4.3 Indicative Phasing for Southall Gas Works

Indicative Timing Revised Indicative Limit on Infrastructure Measure from GLA Report Phasing Development Units (2010)

Access from South Road 1 – 2 yrs 2010/11 2015 400 to Southall West Beaconsfield Road 1 – 2 yrs 2010/11 2015 400 Access South Road / Merrick 2 - 3 yrs 2012/13 2017 800 Road South Road / Uxbridge 4-5 yrs 2014/15 2019 1,250 Road Bulls Bridge Junction 4-5 yrs 2014/15 2019 1,350 (A312) M4 Junction 3 5-6 yrs 2015/16 2020 1,500 South Road Bus Lane 5-6 yrs 2015/16 2020 1,500 New junction at Pump 6-7 years 2016/17 2021 1,750 Lane / A312 Parkway South Road Bridge 9-10 yrs 2019/20 2019 2,500 Widening Source: Southall Gas Works Site Representation Hearing Report (GLA 2010)

The Havelock Estate Transport Assessment (2010) specifies that the Havelock development will be completed in four phases; it is focussed on phase 1 which will see a net increase of 131 units out of a total net increase of 230. Phase 1 covers the east side of Havelock and is forecast to be completed in 2024. The Havelock Estate Regeneration Addendum to Transport Assessment (2013) states the most significant highways impact of phase 1 is a 5% increase in traffic on the Havelock Road / Merrick Road junction in the AM and PMs peaks and a 4%

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

increase at Norwood Road / Norwood Green junction in the AM peak (there is less impact in the PM peak).

The Draft OAPF outlines phasing for the Southall Great Streets Programme which includes junction improvements to A3005 South Road commencing this year with the pedestrian cycle bridge over the railway being reopened 2017.

Schemes for which phasing information is available are set out in Table 4.4.

Table 4.4: Infrastructure Measures with Phasing

Infrastructure Measure Phasing

Acupuncture Points - Urban Realm Improvements to 8 public spaces (03 2014 cancelled) Increased flare at Beaconsfield Road / South Road junction 2015 Access to be created from South Road for the Southall West 2015 (indicative) development Junctions to link with Grand Union Avenue 2015-2017 2016-2021 (assume South Road Bridge widening possible to bring forward earlier than planned) Merrick Road Safety Scheme - Junction modification and pedestrian crossing near Osterley Park Road and a Zebra crossing near Castle 2017 Road, kerb built out at junction with Havelock Road Crossrail 2018 Southall Station redevelopment to cater for Crossrail with enhanced 2019 interchange, cycle hub and direct street level crossing to West Southall. Southall East Bridge - Proposed cycle footbridge over railway between 2019 Merrick Road and Park Avenue New signalised junction at Pump Lane / A312 Parkway to link up with the 2021 (indicative) West Southall Development. Source: URS

4.7 Costs

The cost of schemes identified are drawn from the LBE Infrastructure and Funding Gap Report issued February 2014 and confirmed through discussions with the council and TfL. The costs are summarised in Table 4.5. The total cost of transport schemes is £36.9m, though it must be noted that there are some gaps in cost information.28 The total amount of £36.9m is therefore likely to increase but it is unlikely that all of this should be attributed to development associated with the Opportunity Area.

28 The LBE Infrastructure and Funding Gap Report issued February 2014 does detail some costs and funding but these are mainly for borough wide schemes and are not specific enough for the proposed infrastructure in the Southall Opportunity Area. An alternative source would be the Infrastructure Delivery Schedule but this dates from July 2011; consequently the proposed schemes and costs listed within it have either been completed or are due to be completed by the end of this 2014, with no information on future infrastructure measures.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

The breakdown of costs by broad type of scheme (whilst recognising that many of these schemes benefit more than one transport mode) is shown in Table 4.5 :

Road schemes account for 61% of the costs while NMU and bus schemes account for 22.9% and walking and cycling 15.7% of total costs.

Table 4.5: Transport Scheme Costs

Mode Schemes Cost (£’000s)

Road 10 £22,600

NMU 3 £4,900

Bus and NMU 2 £3,550

Pedestrian 12 £3,700

Cycle 1 £2,100

Total 28 £36,850

Source: URS

4.8 Funding and Funding Gap

Total funding associated with the schemes identified from the evidence base totals £25.6m. leaving a funding gap of £9.95m. Schemes for walking and cycling amount to approximately 38% of the funding deficit, with the remaining 62% for the road, bus and NMU schemes incorporating Southall Station redevelopment.

Available information on funding is summarised in Table 4.6. Key sources of funding are:

• LBE including

o Local Implementation Plan

o LBE Regeneration

• Developer funding through s.106

• Growing Places

• TfL Crossrail Complementary Funding

• CCM Funding

• Mini Holland

• Mayors Regeneration Fund

• PRN

• Town Centre Capital Contingency

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

• Shopfront

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 4.6: Cost, Funding and Funding (Total by Transport Mode)

Mode Schemes Cost (£ ’000s) Funding (£’000s ) Funding Gap (£’000s)

Road 10 £22,600 £22,600 £0

NMU 3 £3,600 1,000 £2,600

Bus / NMU 2 £3,550 £0 £3,550

Pedestrian 12 £3,700 £2,000 £1,700

Cycle 1 £2,100 £0 £2,100

Total 28 £35,550 £25,600 £9,950

Source: URS

It is unlikely that all demand for the planned transport interventions will arise from the Opportunity Area and therefore the entire cost or funding gap should be borne by development in the Opportunity Area.

The evidence on an appropriate proportion of the funding gap to be attributed to development is not comprehensive. Figure 4.11 is an excerpt from the OAPF Highway Modelling Conclusion Report (2013) showing the difference between the ratio of volume to capacity (a measure of the degree of ’stress’ on the highway network) with and without OAPF growth. This suggests that the Opportunity Area has up to a 10% impact on the road network (i.e. a 10% increase in the ratio of volume to capacity). This suggests that 10% might be a reasonable portion or contribution for the SOA to bear towards infrastructure costs where the infrastructure unlocks capacity for development. This assumption is supported by the relatively small number of trips introduced to the transport network described in Section 4.4. The exception to this is the junction of Havelock Road and Merrick Road where there is up to a 40% increase the V/C difference for westbound traffic from Havelock Road. Plans to build the kerb out at this junction are included in the already funded Merrick Road Safety scheme. Furthermore the proposed Grand Union Avenue running from Merrick Road through East Southall to Havelock and the proposed new access from Havelock to Glade Lane would be expected to mitigate much of the impact at this site. If further investigation is able to build a strong case for the proposed link from Havelock to Glade Lane (in addition to Grand Union Avenue) then funding through s.106 may be appropriate as it is apparent that this impact is likely to be generated by a single development.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Figure 4.12 Volume/ Capacity Ratio difference 2031 With Opportunity Area to 2031

Source: OAPF Highway Modelling Conclusion Report (2013)

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

It is however noted that the transport projects with funding gaps are for modes which might relate more to local demand than road or rail projects.

We have discussed with LBE, TfL and GLA what proportion of transport gap funding could be attributed to the OA’s transport infrastructure costs. In absence of a more suitable approach 29 we have estimated a proportion based on the potential change in population arising from new development within the OA. The Draft OAPF states that the current population of Southall is 56,000. This study estimates new residents in the OA resulting from growth to 17,977. The increase in population arising from the new development of the OAPF therefore represents a 32% increase in population.30 We could therefore assume a figure of 32% represents the transport funding gap attributed to the OAPF. An alternative way of considering the apportionment would be to estimate new residents of the OA arising from new residential development as a proportion of the total new population within the OA. This would mean that the new residents represent 24% of the total population.31 For the purposes of this assessment we therefore estimate the potential infrastructure funding gap attributed to the OA based on a lower apportionment of 24% and an upper 32% apportionment of total transport gap funding requirement.

29 For example transport modelling data associated with each transport scheme allowing volume over capacity calculations to be made. 30 17,997 divided by 56,000 31 17,997 divided by the addition of 17,997 and 56,000.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

For the purposes of this study we have presented our analysis of the transport funding gap in Section 6 based on the evidenced 32% upper OA contribution which is derived from the uplift in population within the OA compared to the existing base population.

It is important to note that not all schemes are costed, which will mean the total costs associated with infrastructure and the contributions, which should be borne by the Opportunity Area, are an underestimate.

Table 4.7: Scheme Costs and Funding (Opportunity Area Apportionment by Mode)

Lower OA Upper OA Total Cost Total Funding Funding Gap Contribution Contribution Mode (£k’000s) (£’000s) (£’000s) (24%) (£’000s) (32%) (£’000s)

Road £22,600 £22,600 £0 £0 £0

NMU £3,600 £1,000 £2,600 £624 £832

Bus / NMU £3,550 £0 £3,550 £852 £1,136

Pedestrian £3,700 £2,000 £1,700 £408 £544

Cycle £2,100 £0 £2,100 £504 £672

Total £35,550 £25,600 £9,950 £2,388 £3,184

Source: URS Lower OA contribution = 24% of total transport infrastructure gap funding requirement Upper OA contribution = 32% of total transport infrastructure gap funding requirement.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

5. UTILITIES AND HARD INFRASTRUCTURE

5.1 Introduction

This section covers the key utilities and hard infrastructure which serves the Opportunity Area. This includes energy (electricity, gas and decentralised energy), water, sewerage (waste water), waste management and flood defences.

Responsibility for monitoring existing capacity, undertaking maintenance and expansion of these systems lies with a number of private utilities operators. It is typical for the majority of infrastructure providers to plan delivery of projects at a regional or sub-regional level. At the local level, developers will usually work with utilities to ensure adequate supply on a site- specific basis.

5.2 Energy

Baseline and Planned Projects

National Grid has responsibility for monitoring existing capacity, undertaking maintenance and expansion of the systems for supply of gas and energy within the Opportunity Area.

Over the plan period there are likely to be upgrades and expansions required to existing networks. In most cases work with be undertaken and funded by National Grid, with developers contributing to costs where requirements relate to on-site infrastructure or wider strategic projects. No specific energy infrastructure projects have been identified for the Southall Opportunity Area at this time, apart from the decentralised energy network which is detailed below.

In 2010 LBE’s borough-wide Heat Mapping Study (2010) identified the opportunity for an initial district energy system in Southall centred on the Gas Works. Subsequently the Energy Masterplan for Ealing Southall (2013) analysed potential for an area-wide District Heating Network. The masterplan identified a total of 40 new and existing buildings with estimated annual heat demand of these buildings is estimated to be approximately 34,400MWh/yr.

Based on an energy centre located at Southall West 32 , this scheme would start generating heat in 2017, gradually expanding up to 2032 as new residential developments come on line. The scheme is based around a combined heat and power (CHP) engine of capacity 1.1MWe. This would not be installed until 2021, with traditional boilers providing heat in the interim period.

Calculations indicate that domestic heat could be delivered at 10% below current average prices paid by domestic gas consumers, aiding in efforts to combat fuel poverty. Annual carbon emissions savings by 2032 as a result of the low-carbon technology would be 3,300 tCO 2e. Key risks to the project’s future delivery are the ability and willingness of relevant

32 Southall Gas Works Outline and Full Planning Permission (29th Sept 2010) makes provision for a 1,885sqm energy centre. The permission states that prior to the Commencement of Development, a detailed Energy Strategy (based on one of the options identified in the planning permission) shall be approved. The development shall include a site wide heat, and - in the case of Energy Strategy 1 - a site-wide power network that will be centrally operated from the single Energy Centre. All new commercial and residential apartment buildings within the Development shall be constructed to be able to connect to the site wide heat, and - in the case of Energy Strategy 1 - the site-wide power network from first occupation.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

parties to create the necessary commercial structures for a network to be delivered and operated; the need to cross the railway; and the scheme’s reliance on the delivery of a number of future developments that are at best in the very early stages of planning. Measures have been identified to clarify uncertainties and/or mitigate risks.

The Business Case for implementation of District Heating Network, currently being progressed by the Mayor of London and partners, will conduct a headline assessment of the potential cost differences between the larger centralised energy centres and the smaller distributed energy centres in terms of cost savings to developers

The scheme is costed at £5.7m between 2017 and 2032. It is achievable at public sector discount rates (of 6% over 25 years) with relatively low new-build connection charges of £1,626/residential unit and £1000/kW of non-domestic load.

The LBE Infrastructure Planning & Funding Gap Report (2014) attributed the £5.7m cost of the core Southall Decentralised Heating Network to network costs for approximately 2.28km, with funding and delivery anticipated to be led by LBE/ Energy Services Company (ESCO's) (2021- 2026).33

Demand arising from Development

Gross demand for electricity can be estimated applying the following assumptions regarding usage in Kilo Volt Amperes (kVA) by use class 34 :

• Residential demand, 1.3 kVA per dwelling

• Non-residential development, 0.07 kVA per m 2 Net Internal Area (NIA) 35

It should be noted that providers generally plan at a sub-regional rather than local level and that electricity requirements for local development will differ considerably to those at a wider geographical area. The demand ratio applied per residential dwelling is approximately 1.0 kVA, for a local development the demand ratio applied is approximately 1.6 kVA per dwelling. Therefore, for the purposes of this assessment, a mid-point ratio of 1.3 kVA has been applied. For the commercial (office and retail) and industrial / warehouse sector, there is a large variation in demand (dependent on the type and size of business) – a distribution unit (which is likely to have a demand for energy) could use less electricity than a small industrial company (which is likely to have a higher energy demand). The rate used here represents a reasonable average.

To determine net demand, electricity projects coming forward as part of planned demand should also be taken into account. No detailed information is available on planned projects affecting the Southall area however, either in terms of permitted schemes or other strategic projects.

33 The same report indicates a second cost of £17m for the scheme ‘Extended as shown in Plan 1’ relating to 10.2km network costs. This figure is not quoted with the Energy Masterplan. 34 These figures have been informed through consultation undertaken by URS for other London-based strategic infrastructure assessments. 35 This is an average of the rates for office development (0.08 kVA per m 2), retail development (0.12 kVA per m2 NIA) and industrial / warehouse development (0.04 kVA per m 2 NIA).

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

On the basis of the ratios set out above, the indicative gross demand is outlined in Table 5.1 below.

Table 5.1 Estimated Electricity Demand from New Development

Gross Demand (kVA) Phase Residential Non-residential Total 2014-17 1,180 446 1,626 2018-22 3,826 2,993 6,819 2023-32 2,681 1,997 4,677 Total 4,548 5,436 9,984 Source: URS

On the basis of costs obtained by URS via consultation with electricity providers for other strategic infrastructure assessments, broad-brush estimates for the size and cost of electricity sub stations are as follows:

• Primary sub-station capable of serving 5,000 dwellings - £4m

• Distribution sub-station capable of serving 300 dwellings - £90,000

It is estimated that the Opportunity Area will require a total of 1.2 primary sub-stations and just over 19.7 distribution sub-stations. It is estimated that the costs across the Opportunity Area for primary sub-stations will be £16.2m and for distribution sub-stations £3.4m as outlined in Table 5.2 below.

Table 5.2 Estimated Cost of Electricity Provision Requirements

S oPhase Primary sub-station (no.) Distribution sub-stations (no.) u r2014-17 0.73 0.27 c e2018-22 2.35 0.88 : 2023-32 1.65 0.62 S Total 4.73 1.77 o urce: URS

The gross demand for gas can be estimated using the ratio of cubic metres per hour (m 3/hour) by dwelling or NIA floorspace for non-residential use. The breakdown for residential and non- residential uses is as follows, based on typical ratios applied by utility companies for both development design and strategic planning 36 :

• Residential demand, 1.0m 3/hour per dwelling (based on the average demand from low, medium and high density development)

• For non-residential demand, 0.03m 3/hour per m 2 NIA (an average ratio based on retail development, 0.01 m 3/hour per m 2 NIA and industrial / warehouse development, 0.05 m3/hour per m 2 NIA).

36 These figures have been informed through consultation undertaken by URS for other London-based strategic infrastructure assessments.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

To determine the net demand, gas infrastructure projects coming forward as part of planned demand should also be taken into account. No detailed information is available on planned projects affecting the Southall area however, either in terms of permitted schemes or other strategic projects.

On the basis of the ratios set out above, the indicative gross demand is outlined in Table 5.3 below.

Table 5.3 Estimated Gas Demand from New Development

Gross Demand (m3/hour) Phase Residential Non-residential Total 2014-17 908 191 1,099 2018-22 2,943 1,283 4,226 2023-32 2,062 856 2,918 Total 5,913 2,330 8,243 Source: URS

5.3 Water

Baseline and Planned Projects

Thames Water is the owner, operator and supplier of water resources within the Opportunity Area. Thames Water is regulated by Ofwat according to their performance, including maintaining security of supply and the quality of drinking water delivered. Water companies have a legal obligation to ensure that adequate water supply infrastructure is provided to meet the requirements of new development. Water resources are planned at a Water Resource Zone (WRZ) level, which is defined as the largest possible zone in which all water resources can be shared. LBE falls within the London WRZ.

London is one of the areas which has been classified by the Environment Agency as under water stress. This is due to the high population density combined with limited water resources, requiring the careful management and planning of resources 37 .

The majority of clean water resources for Greater London are derived from abstraction from the River Thames and River Lea. The abstracted water is subsequently stored in reservoirs at Crossness, near Bexley, and Walthamstow Marshes, as well as in small boreholes across the city. The rest of London's water is supplied from groundwater sources 38 .

Water companies adopt the twin track approach of increasing supply but also of managing demand and reducing leakage. Thames Water is currently planning to reach a per capita consumption (PCC) of 135l/h/d by 2035. However, this will require a significant change in people’s behaviour and involvement of multiple stakeholders 39 .

37 London Plan Implementation Plan, (2012); Greater London Authority 38 London Plan Implementation Plan, (2012); Greater London Authority 39 Thames Water: Water Resources Management Plan 2010-2035 (June 2012). Available at: http://www.thameswater.co.uk/about-us/5392.htm.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Investments which are needed to meet demand arising across the Greater London region include the continuation of the leakage reduction programme via Victorian Mains Replacement (VMR) and maintenance of existing water mains.

No planned projects of specific relevance to the Opportunity Area have been identified.

Demand Arising from Development

The gross demand for water can be estimated using a ratio of litres per day, per resident or employee. The breakdown for residential and non-residential uses is as follows:

• Residential demand, 160 litres/day per resident 40

• For non-residential demand, 8 litres/day per employee 41

On the basis of the ratios outlined above, the indicative gross demand is outlined in Table 5.4 below.

Table 5.4 Estimated Water Demand from New Development

Gross Demand (litres/hour) Phase Residential Non-residential Total 2014-17 444,992 44,590 489,582 2018-22 1,427,728 299,334 1,727,062 2023-32 1,006,816 199,661 1,206,477 Total 2,879,536 543,585 3,423,121 Source: URS

Net demand will be lower reflecting planned provision for proposed developments which already have planning permission. However no detailed information on planned investment is available.

5.4 Sewage

Sewage infrastructure covers both surface water drainage and foul water drainage. The sewerage system in the majority of Greater London is operated by Thames Water. Physical assets associated with transporting and treating surface and foul water, and discharging the treated effluent to watercourses, include: sewage treatment works; pumping stations; sewers; maintenance and control equipment; IT and buildings.

Sewerage companies have a legal obligation to ensure that adequate sewer treatment infrastructure is provided to meet the requirements of new development. London’s sewage is treated at eight major STW – Beckton, Crossness, Mogden, Riverside and Long Reach (that discharge effluent to the tidal River Thames), and Hogsmill, Beddington and Deephams (that discharge into freshwater tributaries of the Thames).

40 Based on URS research undertaken for other strategic infrastructure assessments 41 Based on URS research undertaken for other strategic infrastructure assessments

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

It is essential that strategic wastewater infrastructure is planned and provided in a timely way to support existing and new development. The quality of London’s water bodies must be improved if they are to meet the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive. The Thames Tunnel, as currently designed, will capture flows from the 34 unsatisfactory CSOs along the tideway, and convey them for treatment at the extended Beckton STW. It is currently expected to be complete by 2023, subject to approvals and financing. The cost is currently estimated at £4.1billion.

5.5 Waste Management

Waste is defined by the Environment Agency as including ‘Municipal Solid Waste’ (household), commercial waste and industrial waste which is non-hazardous and collected by or on behalf of the local authority.

The Revised Early Minor Alterations (REMA) London Plan (2013) Policy 5.16 ‘Waste Self- Sufficiency’ outlines the Plan’s target to manage 100 per cent of London’s waste within London by 2031. Policy 5.17 ‘Waste Capacity’ supports an increase in waste processing capacity within London boroughs and states that boroughs must allocate ‘ sufficient land and identify waste management facilities to provide capacity to manage the tonnages of waste apportioned within this Plan’ .

The REMA London Plan (2013) Policy 5.18 ‘Construction, Evacuation and Demolition Waste’ also supports the re-use and recycling of waste from development and states that boroughs should require developers to produce site waste management plans for the efficient processing of construction, evacuation and demolition waste and materials.

A number of local authorities in Greater London have merged to create four statutory Waste Disposal Authorities (WDAs): North London WDA, East London WDA, South London Waste Disposal Partnership and West London Waste. Each WDA is responsible for the disposal of wastes collected by the local authorities situated within its statutory area.

LBE is part of the West London WDA. The LBE Infrastructure Planning & Funding Gap Report (2014) notes that waste facilities will be determined through the West London Waste Plan (WLWP) and WLWA will enter into a contract with an approved partner to provide waste processing contract. Contributions from development are unlikely to be part of the funding strategy for waste management aside from onsite strategies to reduce the generation of, and facilitate the sustainable management of, waste.

No planned projects of specific relevance to the Opportunity Area have been identified. Western International Market, immediately to the south-west of the Opportunity Area, has been identified on WLWA’s long list of potential sites for waste treatment. It is possible this could facilitate more convenient and cost efficient waste management solutions for the Opportunity Area. However it is not at present clear what the implications for management of waste arising from new development in the Opportunity Area would be and how this site might fit into the wider waste strategy for the West London.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

5.6 Flood Risk

Floods can arise from a variety of sources, including groundwater, sewer, surface water, fluvial (river), and tidal flooding. Bodies responsible for maintaining and renewing flood defences in the LBE include:

• Thames Water (responsible for the combined foul and surface water sewerage network)

• The Environment Agency (responsible for providing flood warnings and flooding advice, and assisting with the planning for and management of flooding)

• Canals and Rivers Trust (a charity responsible for approximately 2,000 miles of inland waterways within England and Wales)

• Local authorities (responsible for producing Surface Water Management Plans and / or Strategic Flood Risk Assessments [SFRA])

• Private individuals and landowners.

The REMA London Plan (2013) Policy 5.12 ‘Flood Risk Management states that in line with the NPPF and Technical Guidance boroughs should “ utilise Strategic Flood Risk Assessments to identify areas where particular flood risk issues exist” . Development proposals must satisfy flood risk assessment and management requirements as set out within the NPPF and associated Technical Guidance on flood risk.

Policy 5.13 of the REMA London Plan (2013) also sets out guidance for boroughs in line with the Flood and Water Management Act 2010 in regards to Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) and the utilisation of Surface Water Management Plans to identify surface water issues and to reduce and manage risks.

No projects relating to flood risk have been identified through the evidence review. The Environment Agency identify some surface water flood risk on Uxbridge Road and South Road as well as some small pockets of flood risk at East Southall and Havelock.42 As for other hard infrastructure, site specific mitigation will play a key role in protecting the Opportunity Area as a whole, for example through the on-site provision of SUDS.

5.7 Telecommunications

Telecommunication provision needs to respond flexibly to a wide range of demands from residential users and businesses. The nature of provision is changing rapidly, driven by the fast pace of innovation and change in the sector. The London Plan Implementation Plan (GLA, 2013) defines telecommunications infrastructure as including the availability of fast broadband, Wi-Fi Hotspots, data centres, street cabinets, and copper, fibre and ethernet connections.

The requirement for residential properties (and also SMEs) is a fast broadband connection. There is increasing demand for bandwidth in residential areas, driven by developments in the entertainment sector (for example, HD TV). Demand for wireless coverage (wifi hotspots) across London increased massively during the Olympics. Large business services require an ethernet connection (up to 10 Gbit/s) and data centres are important to a resilient business

42 http://watermaps.environment- agency.gov.uk/wiyby/wiyby.aspx?lang=_e&topic=ufmfsw&layer=0&x=512500&y=180500&scale=10&location =Southall%2c+Ealing#x=514456&y=178427&scale=8 Accessed 17 th April 2014

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

telecommunications infrastructure. Demand for telecommunication provision and enhancement at the regional level is being driven in part by the growth of the ICT sector in London. The provision of good telecommunications infrastructure is therefore viewed as important to help keep London competitive at a global scale, particularly in relation to the ‘digital economy’. The future rollout of a 4G network is currently being explored.

The majority of London has high-speed broadband coverage (up to 24 Mbit/s) 43 . There has also been an ongoing programme to roll out super-fast broadband (up to 110 Mbit/s). The map below shows that the majority of LBE, already has super-fast broadband deployed in the area 44 . The SOA has super-fast broadband planned however it is not yet in place. Data from the London Implementation Plan shows that the whole of the LBE (and the majority of Greater London) has Ethernet deployment enabled.

Figure 5.1 Super-Fast Broadband Deployment in London

Source: BT data cited in the GLA, London Implementation Plan 2013

43 BT data cited in the GLA, London Implementation Plan 2013 44 This map shows the broadband coverage and speed currently provided by BT by area across London

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

There is currently no local-level data regarding the projected demand for telecommunications infrastructure arising from development. However telecommunications will be an important requirement to serve residential and commercial development in the OA.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

6. INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING GAP

6.1 Infrastructure Funding Gap

Following on from the analysis set out in preceding sections Table 6.1 below illustrates the funding gap by infrastructure category.

The infrastructure assessments have identified that total infrastructure costs for projects in Southall Opportunity Area over the plan period are £111m. Funding is identified as £72m. This leaves a total funding gap of £39m. The funding gap identified for the Opportunity Area of just over £32m incorporates the assumption that only 32% of the total funding gap for transport projects should be attributed to the Opportunity Area. The funding gap estimated for the Opportunity Area is the developer contributions requirement.

Social infrastructure accounts for 90% of the infrastructure gap, transport for 10% and utilities / hard infrastructure for 0%. Before discounting transport projects as described above, transport accounts for 26% of the funding gap.

Table 6.1: Infrastructure Funding Gap by Category

Funding Gap Funding Gap Infra- Cost Funding structure (Total) * (Opportunity Area) * Category £ '000s % £ '000s % £ '000s % £ '000s %

Transport 35,550 32% 25,600 39% 9,950 26% 3,184 10%

Social 69,845 63% 40,797 53% 29,048 74% 29,048 90%

Utilities / 5,700 5% 5,700 9% 0 0% 0 0% Hard Infra Total 111,095 100% 72,097 100% 38,998 100% 32,232 100% Source: URS; figures may not sum due to rounding * Indicative contribution required by developers, based on the upper OA contributions for transport gap funding.

Table 6.2 below shows the funding gap by phase. Available information indicates that the funding gap in the OA is likely to be greater in Phase 2 (2018 to 2022) than in Phase 1 (2023 to 2032). Phase 3 (2023 to 32) accounts for 39% of the funding gap.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 6.2: Infrastructure Funding Gap by Phase

Funding Gap Funding Gap Cost Phase (Total) * (Opportunity Area) * £ '000s % £ '000s % £ '000s % 2013-17 22,544 20% 8,694 22% 5,311 17% 2018-22 55,838 50% 17,640 45% 14,257 44% 2023-32 32,713 29% 12,665 33% 12,665 39% Total 111,095 100% 38,998 100% 32,232 100% Source: URS; figures may not sum due to rounding * Indicative contribution required by developers, based on the upper OA contributions for transport gap funding.

Key sources of committed and anticipated funding include LBE, regional government (TfL/ GLA) including grants and loans (Mayor of London, Growing Places Fund), national government (anticipated to fund much social infrastructure) and developers.

Planned projects and required interventions are summarised within the Infrastructure Schedule at Appendix A. The projects making up the £32.2m OA funding gap are shown in Table 6.3 below.

It should be noted that:

• There are some infrastructure items for which details of the requirements and costs are not known. This implies that the funding gap will in reality be much higher than shown here. This is to be expected as most planning and funding regimes look forward five to ten years and the OAPF attempts to consider the entire 20 year plan period. For some social infrastructure items, broad brush assumptions have been applied to estimate net demand and costs over the entire plan period.

• In deciding whether funding is sufficiently ‘committed’ to be ‘taken off’ the funding gap, we have assumed that where infrastructure is typically funded by government agencies or commercial providers this funding will come forward in due course even though funding may not be confirmed yet for the entire duration of the plan period. For contributions from development, we have assumed funding will come forward where there is a signed s.106 agreement.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 6.3: Southall Opportunity Area Funding Gap by Project

Opportunity Cost Funding Area Infrastructure Description Timing 2014-26 2014-32 Funding Funding Source Delivery category (£'000s) (£'000s) Gap 2014- 32 (£'000s) 2018-22 LBE/ DfE mainstream Places for additional population: 5FE (2.5 Primary Schools and post 21,900 10,950 10,950 funding, developer NA 2FE schools) 2023 contributions

LBE/ DfE mainstream Secondary Additional 6.2FE and 1.2 new secondary NA 22,711 13,506 9,206 funding, developer NA Schools schools (gross demand) contributions.

Primary Health NHS, LBE, developer NHS Ealing, Net demand for 2GPs 2023-32 785 393 393 Care contributions. Developer Gross demand for 3.75 pool lanes (0.94 LBE/ mainstream pools), 5.33 courts (1.33 halls), 0.86 Sports 2023-32 8,400 6,300 2,100 government funding, third LBE, GLL indoor bowls rinks (0.14 centres), 0.16 sector, developers. artificial pitches (sand and 3G).

LBE mainstream Relocation of Gurdwara Sri Guru Singh government funding, third Community Sabha, Southall Gateway and St. John's NA 11,500 5,750 5,750 LBE sector developer Church Hall Community Hub contributions

LBE, Property Mainstream Funding Strategy, Dine in Southall - Employment & Skills, committed - potential Employment and Community Hospitality & Catering Training, including NA 1,500 850 650 additional funds from Skills Centres Strategy, Apprenticeships Mayors Regeneration LBE Groundwork, Fund, GLA GLA Southall Station redevelopment with Transport - Bus / enhanced interchange, cycle hub and 2021 3,550 0 1,136 CCM Funding NA NMU direct street level crossing to West Southall.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Opportunity Cost Funding Area Infrastructure Description Timing 2014-26 2014-32 Funding Funding Source Delivery category (£'000s) (£'000s) Gap 2014- 32 (£'000s) Southall East Bridge - cycle footbridge Growing Places Fund Transport - NMU over railway between Merrick Road and 2017 3,000 1,000 640 NA recouped via s.106 (£1m) Park Avenue

High Street 'Shoulders' - Extension of Transport – NMU Southall Broadway project to cover the NA 600 0 192 NA LBE High Street east of the South Road Jn

King Street / The Green Improvements - Transport - safety and accessibility (Southall Great NA 1,650 0 528 LIP LBE Pedestrian Streets 5)

Transport – Implement Legible London - signage to NA 50 0 16 NA LBE Pedestrian improve way finding

2 Quietways - Ealing to Southall and 2015/201 Transport - Cycle 2,100 0 672 NA LBE Southall to Hounslow 6

Source: URS; figures may not sum due to rounding

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

7. VIABILITY AND DEVELOPER/ LANDOWNER CONTRIBUTIONS

7.1 Securing Contributions Towards Infrastructure to Support Growth

A fundamental principle underlying the planning system in the UK is that landowners who benefit from uplift in their land values arising from growth and development should contribute towards the infrastructure required to support that development. This principle is enshrined in planning obligations regime and, more recently, in the Community Infrastructure Levy (‘CIL’) Regulations 45 .

This principle is easily applied on greenfield and other previously undeveloped sites, which have a very low existing use value (and thus a significant amount of value uplift when planning permission is granted). However, when sites accommodate existing buildings, which either yield a rental income, or if vacant, are capable of yielding a rental income, the value uplift will be lower than for greenfield sites. This limits the extent to which local planning authorities can secure contributions towards infrastructure.

The sites identified by the LBE in its ‘ Development Sites Development Plan Document ’ (December 2013) have all been previously developed and are in a range of uses, including industrial, retail, residential, education, car parking and community use.

Land values must be sufficiently attractive to landowners to incentivise the release of sites for redevelopment. The usual starting point for considering an appropriate ‘base’ land value is the existing use value, adding an appropriate and site specific ‘premium’ or return. This principle is addressed in more detail in the Local Housing Delivery Group guidance on ‘ Viability Testing Local Plans: Advice for Planning Practitioners’ (June 2012).

Contributions towards infrastructure would need to be secured from the uplift in land value arising from the grant of planning permission, but these should not take the entire uplift, as there is a need for the landowner to receive a ‘competitive return’ in line with the requirements set out in the National Planning Policy Framework. There is also clearly a balance to be struck between securing other planning objectives (the most pertinent being affordable housing) and maximising infrastructure contributions. It is therefore unlikely that landowner contributions can be expected to fund the entire infrastructure funding gap, unless the planning authority is prepared to forgo other requirements. Even then, it may not be possible to secure funding for the whole funding gap.

7.2 Sample Sites

We have tested the viability of five sample sites in the area and their ability to generate contributions towards infrastructure. These are shown below in Table 7.1 . The information of the sites is consistent with that in Table 2.1 which sets out the growth trajectory for the entire Opportunity Area. These sites account for most of the unconsented growth within the OA (total unconsented growth is 1,899 dwellings and 33,888sqm non-residential floorspace).

45 DCLG, (2010); Community Infrastructure Levy Regulations 2010 (as amended by the Community Infrastructure Levy Regulations 2012 and 2014).

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 7.1: Sample Sites

Policy Indicative residential Non residential Development name reference capacity floorspace (sqm)

SOU4 Southall Crossrail Station 256 5,144

SOU6 Southall East 921 16,121

SOU1 Southall Market 141 2,470

SOU8 The Green 267 4,665

SOU2 Iceland and Quality Foods 138 2,411

Totals 1,723 30,811 Source: URS

7.3 Planning Policy Requirements

The LBE recently completed a statutory consultation on its CIL Preliminary Draft Charging Schedule (‘PDCS’). The PDCS indicates that the LBE intends to levy a CIL of £50 per square metre on residential development in Southall. Retail warehouses, retail parks and superstores of more than 280 square metres will attract a CIL charge of £100 per square metre. Retail floorspace not falling into this category will be charged £30 per square metre CIL.

The Mayoral CIL of £35 per square metre applied to private residential, office/light industrial floorspace and retail floorspace is also payable.

In addition to financing infrastructure, the LBE expects residential developments to provide a mix of affordable housing tenures, sizes and types to help meet identified housing needs and contribute to the creation of mixed, balanced and inclusive communities. The LBE’s strategic target is that at least 50% of new dwellings should be affordable. To meet this aim, the LBE expects developments of 10 or more units to provide affordable housing on-site, with a tenure mix of 60% rented and 40% intermediate housing. The LBE will seek the ‘maximum reasonable amount of affordable housing, taking account of specific circumstances of the site (including financial viability)’. 46

In line with these policies, the appraisals assume 50% affordable housing and CIL contributions as per the PDCS.47

7.4 Appraisal Methodology

We have adopted a residual land valuation methodology to test the developer/ landowner contributions that the sample schemes might be able to absorb whilst also providing a normal level of developer’s return and a land value in excess of existing use value for the landowner. This method deducts from the completed scheme value all the development costs (base build costs, professional fees, marketing costs, finance costs and profit), leaving a ‘residual’ amount which represents the amount that a developer could offer for the site.

46 LBE Development (Core) Strategy policy 1.2 (a) 47 This approach is consistent with the methodology used within LBE’s Draft CIL Charging Schedule.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

We have appraised the five schemes using Argus Developer, which is an appraisal software package designed to appraise a wide range of developments. Argus Developer is now regularly in use on a site specific basis to attempt to determine the viability of development proposals, including the extent to which they are able to viably absorb planning requirements and generate a residual land value of sufficient magnitude that landowners will be incentivised to release land for development.

Argus Developer has been used extensively both for planning applications determined by local planning authorities and also for appeals determined by the Secretary of State. It is also widely used by valuers undertaking secured lending valuations. The model is therefore widely accepted for the purpose of determining the viability of residential and mixed use schemes.

7.5 Appraisal Inputs

Wherever possible, we have adopted appraisal inputs that are consistent with other recent studies of site viability in the area, particularly the GVA Grimley report on “ Southall East – Preferred Option Development Scenario ” (27 January 2014). Detailed inputs can be found in the appraisals for each site attached at Appendix B and summarised below:

• Residential sales values : GVA Grimley have recently advised that the Southall East site will secure values in the current market of between £3,100 to £3,400 per square metre. We have adopted these values as our base position.

• Ground rents : £238 per unit per annum, capitalised at 5.5% yield.

• Base build costs: ranging between £1,033 per square metre for houses to £1,345 for flatted units.

• Commercial build costs: £1,259 per square metre for office/light industrial units; retail costs ranging from £861 to £1,100 per square metre.

• Mayoral CIL: of £35 per square metre applied to private residential, office/light industrial floorspace and retail floorspace.

• Ealing CIL: £50 per square metre applied to private residential; £30 per square metre applied to retail development. We have not made any deductions for existing floorspace.

• Residual Section 106: £3,500 per unit (applied to all tenures). 48

• Professional fees: 12% of base build costs.

• Marketing: 4% of gross development value. Letting agents fees of 10% of first year’s rent and letting legal fee of 5% of first year’s rent.

• Target developer’s profit: 18% - 20% of gross development value.

• Development finance: 7%.

48 In line with Regulation 122 of the CIL Regulations, if LBE operates CIL then s.106 can only be raised in relation the infrastructure not listed on the Regulation 123 list. In reality therefore the amount raised s106 will depend on the Regulation 123 list, amongst other factors. This is discussed in more detail in Section 8. £3,500 per unit for residual s.106 is considered a reasonable assumption based on the consultant team’s experience.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

7.6 Impact of delivery timescale on residual land values

As noted in Table ES1, the schemes are expected to come forward over an extended period (2014 – 2032). For all sites, we have appraised the schemes using current values and current costs which provides an indication of their likely viability if they were brought forward today. However, given that many of the sites will not come forward for a considerable time, it is necessary to consider adjustments to some of the key appraisal inputs that are likely to change over that period. For the period up to 2017 there are forecasts available for both value growth and cost inflation as follows:

• Residential value growth : Southall East – Preferred Option Development Scenario ’ (27 January 2014) analyses growth forecasts from a range of commentators and conclude that residential sales values are likely to grow by 28% to 2017.

• Cost inflation to 2017: Southall East – Preferred Option Development Scenario ’ (27 January 2014) applies inflation to residential costs amounting to 19% up to 2017. We have also applied this inflation to our residential build costs.

Beyond 2017, predicting the future trajectory of value growth and build cost inflation becomes more difficult. It is therefore necessary to consider application of a long term real growth rate beyond this point, having regards to historical trends. Over the past 35 years, house prices have grown by 3% per annum in real terms 49 . Therefore, for site expected to come forward after 2017, we have applied the following change to the appraisals:

• Value growth beyond 2017: for sites and phases of sites coming forward after 2017, we have applied real growth to residential sales values of 2.5% per annum.

In all cases, we have assumed that the benchmark land values (the existing use land values) do not increase, as they are predominantly secondary industrial and retail buildings which are nearing the end of their economic life and would require substantial investment to enhance their value. Given that there are good prospects for the sites coming forward for redevelopment, current owners are unlikely to invest in these buildings.

7.7 Benchmark/Existing Use Land Values

In the absence of detailed information on all existing buildings on a site, estimating a benchmark land value is difficult to achieve with any degree of accuracy. We have arrived at estimates of benchmark land values based on available information, including Valuation Office Agency (VOA) rateable values, which are based on an assessment of market rents of individual properties applied to their gross internal area. We summarise our approach to estimating benchmark land values below:

• Southall East: £1.5m per hectare, reflecting current predominantly industrial use.

• Crossrail Station site: Mix of industrial floorspace and a place of worship/community uses. We have assumed an equal split between these uses and have applied £0.5m per hectare for community uses and £1.5m for industrial/commercial uses. When applied to the 4.79 hectares, this results in a benchmark land value of £4.8m.

• Southall Market: The rateable value for the Lidl premises equates to £165,000. When capitalised at 6% yield, this results in a capital value of £2.75m. The remainder of the site

49 See BNP Paribas Real Estate ‘Housing and the Economy – Summer 2012’

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

comprises a range of retail uses and with a value in the same order as Lidl. The total estimated benchmark land value for the site is therefore £5.5m.

• The Green: This is a complex site with industrial and retail uses, which the Council wishes to see retained, but consolidated to facilitate an intensification of uses. This will require complex land assembly and land swaps, with potentially substantial costs. We have estimated a benchmark land value of £10m plus. The Council could use its land holdings on the site to facilitate consolidation which might reduce costs.

• Iceland and Quality Foods: The rateable value for the Iceland and Quality Foods store is £177,000, which we have capitalised at a 6% yield, generating a capital value of £2.95m. The remainder of the properties on the site are mainly secondary offices. The VOA does not have a rateable value for all of these properties. The rateable values that are available total £164,225, which when capitalised at a 6% yield generate a capital value of £2.74m. The benchmark value for this site is therefore likely to be in the order of £5.69m.

7.8 Results

Table 7.2 summarises the results of our appraisals, full copies of which can be found at Appendix B. Table 7.3 provides a summary of potential funding from all five sites. The results at current values and current costs indicate that South East, Crossrail and the Green are unviable, but it should be noted that the appraisals incorporate 50% affordable housing. If these sites were coming forward today, the Applicant and the Council would consider a lower level of affordable housing to deliver a viable scheme. However, the application of reasonable growth factors, as outlined above, would improve viability over time so that the Council could secure both its 50% affordable housing target and funding towards infrastructure.

Given the likely phasing of the sites, the scenario whereby values and costs are inflated to 2023 with real growth thereafter reflects the best (reasonably cautious) current view of the ultimate land value and surplus potential available to fund infrastructure. Apart from The Green, these assumptions indicate some surplus would be potentially available to fund infrastructure.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 7.2: Appraisal Results

Surplus potentially Residual Existing use available to Site Growth assumptions land value value (£m) fund (£m) infrastructure (£m)

SOU6 Southall Current values -12.09 11.43 -23.52 East

Resi values and costs -6.37 11.43 -17.80 inflated to 2023

Resi values and costs inflated to 2023 with real 23.81 11.43 12.38 growth thereafter

SOU4 Southall Current values -4.59 4.8 -9.39 Crossrail Station

Resi values and costs -1.37 4.8 -6.17 inflated to 2023

Resi values and costs inflated to 2023 with real 4.98 4.8 0.18 growth thereafter

SOU1 Southall Current values 3.30 5.50 -2.20 Market

Resi values and costs 6.69 5.50 1.19 inflated to 2023

Resi values and costs inflated to 2023 with real 8.37 5.50 2.87 growth thereafter

SOU8 The Green Current values -0.52 10.0 -10.52

Resi values and costs 5.93 10.0 -4.07 inflated to 2023

Resi values and costs inflated to 2023 with real 9.11 10.0 -0.89 growth thereafter

SOU2 Iceland and Current values 3.29 5.69 -2.4 Quality Foods

Resi values and costs 6.47 5.69 0.78 inflated to 2023

Resi values and costs inflated to 2023 with real 8.11 5.69 2.42 growth thereafter

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 7.3: Summary of Potential Infrastructure Funding from Five Sites

Surplus potentially Residual land Existing use available to Growth assumptions value (£m) value (£m) fund infrastructure (£m)

Current values -10.61 37.42 -48.03

Resi values and costs inflated to 2023 11.35 37.42 -26.07

Resi values and costs inflated to 2023 with real growth thereafter 54.38 37.42 16.96

Table 7.8 shows the total surplus which could potentially be available to fund infrastructure from the four sites. Development is unviable at current values. However under the scenario whereby residential costs and values are inflated to 2023 plus real growth on values thereafter the total surplus which could potentially be available to fund infrastructure from the four sites is approximately £17m. In addition to this potential funding, the appraisals incorporate an allowance of £3,500 per unit for residual s.106, which would amount to circa £6m, and CIL payments as per the Draft LBE CIL which would amount to c. £4m. These contributions could be used to provide infrastructure, providing the developer contributions strategy put in place in consistent with the CIL Regulations. (If there is a need to pool from more than five planning obligations for a particular type or piece of infrastructure, then the Council would need to collect these contributions through CIL, rather than Section 106). Improvements in viability would enable the Council to consider increasing its CIL rate in the Opportunity Area, but this would need to be tested through the CIL consultation and examination processes.

As noted in section 7.6, we have inflated sales values up to 2017 by reference to forecasts contained within the Southall East – Preferred option development scenario (27 January 2014). In recent months, there are indications of accelerating house price growth in London, although there is considerable uncertainty as to how sustainable the current rate of growth might be. Changes to mortgage lending criteria have just been tightened and central government may well reconsider the availability of Help to Buy in London if prices are perceived to be accelerating too quickly. We therefore consider the current assumption for sales value growth to be realistic over the medium term. Beyond 2017, forecasting future values becomes increasingly less reliable and for this reason, we have adopted to the long term (35 year) trend in real house price growth of 2.5% - 3% per annum. Sensitivity analyses are not a prediction and are their purpose is solely illustrative of potential outcomes.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

8. FUNDING FOR INFRASTRUCTURE

8.1 Introduction

This section considers the degree to which funding from development could help meet the costs of infrastructure in the Southall Opportunity Area. The cost of infrastructure is based on the upper OA apportionment of transport gap funding i.e. 32% of the total funding gap associated with transport schemes.

Other mechanisms and funding sources which could be available to LBE and its public sector partners are subsequently considered.

8.2 Funding from Development

Section 7 illustrates that development in the Opportunity Area is unviable at current values. However under the scenario in which residential costs and values assumed to grow over time (with values increasing more than costs) there would be an overall surplus from development of £17m for the five sites modelled in the viability assessment at the end of the development timescale. This may be reduced for example due to abnormal costs associated with site development or planning requirements not factored into our appraisals. However this surplus could be potentially available to fund infrastructure.

In addition under this scenario approximately £4m could come forward from CIL and approximately £6m from s.106.

The five sites account for most of the unconsented growth within the Opportunity Area and so represent a reasonable picture of funding from development that could be available from the entire Opportunity Area.

Table 8.1 below sets out that this funding from development totals £27m. This funding could meet the majority of the funding gap for infrastructure identified for the Opportunity Area, estimated at approximately £32m in our 32% funding requirement scenario.

Table 8.1 also sets out by phase the funding gap against the funding which could be available from development. This is a broad brush assessment and in reality outcomes would depend on the timing of costs for individual sites and other factors. This analysis suggests that for Phase 1 and Phase 2 infrastructure costs are more than the funding from development under the high funding requirement scenario: in the 2013-17 period there is a funding deficit of £5.3m, in the 2018-22 period a deficit of £11.8m and in the 2023-32 period a potential surplus of £12.1m assuming the ‘super profit’ of development in this period can be captured by LBE via e.g. S106 and/or CIL. The development programme though assumes that developments in the early periods would not generate sufficient surplus value to do not pay for their associated infrastructure – i.e. LBE or another public sector body would need to pay for this infrastructure.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Table 8.1: Funding Gap and Funding from Development by Phase

Funding Gap * Funding from Development

Surplus Core S.106 Core CIL Total £ '000s £ '000s £ '000s £ '000s £ '000s 2013-17 5,311 0 0 0 0 2018-22 14,257 818 1,005 585 2,408 2023-32 12,665 16,142 5,026 3,589 24,757 Total 32,232 16,960 6,031 4,174 27,165 * Based on the upper OA apportionment of gap funding for transport schemes.

8.3 Developer Contributions Strategy

Under the longer term scenario, approximately £4m could come forward from CIL, assuming that LBE adopts CIL in line with its Preliminary Draft Charging Schedule (PDCS) published in February 2014. LBE could earmark the CIL from development in the Opportunity Area for spending on infrastructure within the Opportunity Area, though it could spend this CIL elsewhere in the borough (and conversely CIL from elsewhere in the borough could be spent in the Opportunity Area).

The viability analysis indicates that approximately £6m could be available from s.106. In addition, planning obligations could be the mechanism through which the £17m ‘land value surplus/ super profit’ could be obtained as a contribution towards infrastructure in the Opportunity Area. However under the CIL Regulations 2010 (as amended by the CIL Regulations 2012 and 2014) 50 a number of tests would need to be met for such a planning obligation to be levied and for these funds to be spent on infrastructure in the Opportunity Area.

• First, the infrastructure type or project must not be included on the list of infrastructure on which LBE plans to spend CIL 51 . If the draft Regulation 123 list is adopted as it stands, it would not therefore be possible to collect any s.106 contributions towards items in the Opportunity Area infrastructure funding gap because all of those items would be covered by the Regulation 123 list.

• If s.106 contributions are to be negotiated in relation to the Opportunity Area sites, the infrastructure would need to relate directly to needs arising from the development in question. 52

50 DCLG, (2010); Community Infrastructure Levy Regulations 2010 (as amended by the Community Infrastructure Levy Regulations 2012 and 2014). 51 Under Regulation 123 a planning obligation may not constitute a reason for granting planning permission for the development to the extent that the obligation provides for the funding or provision of ‘relevant infrastructure’. Relevant infrastructure is defined as where a charging authority has published on its website a list of infrastructure projects or types of infrastructure that it intends will be, or may be, wholly or partly funded by CIL, those infrastructure projects or types of infrastructure, or where no such list has been published, any infrastructure. 52 Under Regulation 122 a planning obligation may constitute a reason for granting planning permission for development only if can be evidenced that the obligation is necessary to make the development acceptable

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

• In addition, from April 2015 s.106 obligations can only be pooled for up to five separate planning obligations under Regulation 123.

A draft Regulation 123 list setting out those items on which CIL would be spent was published with the PDCS. The draft list includes education facilities, transport facilities, employment and training programmes, health facilities, sports and leisure facilities, libraries, cultural centres and community facilities; and open space. These categories cover all the items in the Opportunity Area which currently have a funding gap. Therefore if this list is adopted, it would not be possible to negotiate s.106 contributions for any of the items in the Opportunity Area funding gap.

It therefore appears that the best way to maximise funding from development would be to change the Regulation 123 list to exclude items within the Opportunity Area funding gap. For example, the list could exclude primary school education, or include primary school education apart from within the Southall Opportunity Area.

Alternatively if CIL were used to raise funding for infrastructure in the Opportunity Area, the CIL Schedule and Regulation 123 list could be revised once viability improves in order to increase the CIL rate and optimise the strategy for funding development.

The restrictions on pooling s.106 would limit number of schemes contributing to, and therefore the effectiveness of, an Opportunity Area-specific tariff.

8.4 Other Mechanisms for Extracting Value Uplift

The degree to which funding can in practice be raised from development and spent on the items identified as comprising the infrastructure funding gap will depend on a variety of factors. In addition, initial analysis indicates that funding from development will leave a funding gap in the first two phases of growth. It is therefore relevant to consider other ways of funding and delivering infrastructure in the Opportunity Area, including up-front funding which could be repaid later once development comes forward and land value is released.

LBE and its public sector partners could go beyond securing planning obligations and CIL to pursue a strategy of more direct involvement in unlocking development in the Opportunity Area. A joint venture or shareholding agreement would make recoverable funding available for financing infrastructure while also giving the council an element of control or strategic influence over a project. For example, a joint venture could be made on a ‘pari passu’ (proportionate sharing of risk and reward) basis whereby the local authority would contribute land to a special purpose development company and the developer cash and together these resources will be used to raise more cash for development. The council would be repaid from dividends declared out of profits (or if a shareholder loan from interest payments).

Similar to a joint venture an equity facility is also made on a ‘pari passu’ basis but is likely to be cash based and will be payable on sale, refinancing or an agreed repayment date. Repayment is likely to be on the basis of the appropriate proportion of sales price or value. This will allow the Council to take a medium term stake in the project with risk shared through to the point of refinancing/onward sale.

An alternative mechanism which could be relevant in Southall is a Revolving Infrastructure Fund (RIF). This is a method for providing finance to projects where conventional private

in planning terms, directly related to the development and fairly and reasonably related in scale and kind to the development.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

finance is considered unviable or too high risk to proceed. It involves providing upfront cash to pay (in whole or in part) for physical infrastructure, which enables the associated schemes to proceed thus unlocking development potential. Following the successful achievement of development value the RIF finance can be repaid and recycled into new schemes. The RIF concept resembles the models used for the Growing Places Fund, the Local Infrastructure Fund and other recently established public sector funding pots, and has been successfully established by local authorities for example in Greater Manchester.

Typically a proportion of the value of the development land released is used to pay back the RIF for its outlay (potentially plus a commensurate return). This is the repayment phase, with receipts coming back in to the RIF. Value is typically released either through sale of land to a third party for development or through the proceeds of development itself (e.g. sale of houses). RIFs are primarily intended for situations where schemes are not viable/do not have sufficient private finance but will have a good prospect of repaying finance once associated revenue streams are realised.

Probably the easiest mechanism to raise initial finance for a RIF programme is for the council to use prudential borrowing. Ealing could establish a RIF ‘pot’ now and raise around £5.3m to cover infrastructure funding requirements in 2013-17 and raise another £11.8m in around 2018 to fund development in 2018-22 (see Table 8.1, funding gap less funding from development total). In the period 2023-32 the council would aim to recover this investment via capturing the surplus values of development in this period. Development receipts though are only forecast to cover the costs of the earlier infrastructure and not the interest payments on the earlier expenditure. LB Ealing would also be bearing the risk that the later phases of development are not able to cover the costs in the event that market conditions do not improve in line with forecasts and reasonable long term growth expectations.

Figure 8.1: RIF Concept

Source: Guidance note on Revolving Infrastructure Funds, HCA, 2012

This mechanism assumes that the developers in the periods 2013-17 and 2018-22 are not able to contribute towards the infrastructure and make no commitments to cover these costs. It

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

assumes that the developments in the period 2023-32 cover the previously incurred costs. This assumption needs careful review as it could be perceived as going against the general principle that schemes should pay for the needs they create and not other needs. This relationship, previously embedded for example in the old Circular 5/05, is no longer so definitive under the current CIL regime and guidance, and our understanding is that provided an overall need can be demonstrated then in aggregate terms it is acceptable for development to pay for this need. There is though a further question on whether it is appropriate for CIL and/or S106 payments in later development to be retrospectively paying for infrastructure delivered before the developments commence. If LB Ealing wishes to explore this mechanism further we suggest it takes legal advice.

The BNPPRE appraisals assume that the CIL, S106 and surplus land value payments to LB Ealing are incurred towards the start of each site development programme. If RIF were used to defer infrastructure costs of the developments in the 2023-32 period until the end of their development programmes this could generate additional funds as costs would be shifted towards the end of the cash-flows as far as the developers were concerned. Allowing for interest charges this might generate around up to another 5% of surplus of an estimated £17m in this period – i.e. up to around an estimated £1m. (This is a broad-brush estimate rather than a calculation based on alternative cash-flow analysis).

Overall use of prudential borrowing, potentially labelled as a RIF, offers the prospect of recovering most of the infrastructure costs in the longer term for the high infrastructure funding scenario. This though is based on the assumptions we have used in the BNPPRE appraisals and includes taking on the risks associated with the up-front funding.

8.5 Public Sector Grants and Loans for Infrastructure

There are a number of funding sources which public sector stakeholders could directly tap into to deliver infrastructure in Southall. These could be used to directly fund infrastructure (subject to rules on eligibility, state aid and match-funding), or alternatively to raise an upfront lump sum for, or make repayments into, a RIF. The funding sources are described briefly below and represent a long-list of options which could be further investigated by the client team.

LIPS / other transport funding

Transport for London makes an annual contribution to borough budgets through Local Implementation Plan (LIPS) funding, which is allocated on a formula basis. Boroughs need to ‘use or lose’ this money every year. Although it is not possible to say what funding will be available beyond current funding allocations, it is reasonable to assume that a steady stream of income will be available to LBE over future years from this source, although it is for the borough to determine priorities across the whole of Ealing, one of the largest boroughs in London.

In addition, TfL often invites bids to specific funding rounds, for cycling and walking, or other initiatives, and these may be potential sources of future funds for transport projects, alongside its more general ‘major schemes’ bidding pot.

Crossrail Complementary Measures Funding

As part of the TfL new Business Plan, a budget of up to £30m has been identified to spend against a line-wide series of station improvement schemes over four financial years (2015/16- 2018/19). LBE worked together with Crossrail to develop an Urban Integration Study (UIS) for each station in 2013. An application will be made in summer 2014 for public realm works at Southall Station, including an enhanced interchange, cycle hub and level crossing to West Southall.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

New Homes Bonus

The New Homes Bonus (NHB), which commenced in 2011, creates an incentive for local authorities to deliver housing growth in their area. It is based on central government match funding the Council Tax raised for new homes and properties brought back into use, with an additional amount for affordable homes, for the following six years to ensure that the economic benefits of growth are returned to the local area. DCLG has set aside a grant of over £1 billion over the Spending Review period (2011 to 2015) to fund the scheme, which totals £2.2 billion. The final allocations for 2014 to 2015 are £917 million, of which LBE has £1.7m 53 .

From 2015 NHB will continue to be allocated to councils but within Greater London it will include a requirement that some resources are pooled to support the Local Growth Fund. The current technical consultation (July 2013) states that, owing to London’s unique governance arrangements, the London LEP is an advisory body and therefore in London the pooled element of NHB funds would be transferred to the GLA, with advice on spending being offered by the LEP 54 . At present the understanding is that this will be about 30-35%.

Local councils can decide how to spend the NHB. There is an expectation that local councils consult communities about how they spend the money, especially communities where housing stock has increased. Generally councils have incorporated NHB into their general capital plans, rather than setting it aside for spending specifically on infrastructure needs arising from development.

Prudential Borrowing

The public sector can borrow from the Public Works Loan Board (PWLB) at a low cost to fund its spending. At present nearly all borrowers are local authorities requiring loans for capital purposes. The Commissioners are legally required, before making a loan, to satisfy themselves that there is sufficient security for its repayment. Moneys are drawn from the National Loans Fund and rates of interest are determined by the Treasury.

Local authorities use prudential borrowing for a wide range of purpose including to deliver: efficiency savings; better procurement; economic development and regeneration; partnership working; central government targets; better market operation; better capital programming; cheaper funding options; better asset management; and innovation.

The Local Government Act 2003 introduced new freedoms and flexibilities for local authorities allowing them to increase their prudential borrowing. Borrowing is regulated by the Prudential regime and must be in accordance with the Prudential Borrowing Code. Local authorities can borrow to invest in capital works and assets so long as the cost of borrowing is affordable and in line with the principles set out in a professional Prudential Code. Local authorities must use various prudential indicators to judge whether their capital investment plans are affordable, prudent and sustainable. The main limiting factor on the council’s ability to undertake capital expenditure is whether the revenue resource is available to support in full the implications of capital expenditure.

LBE has made use of borrowing within the existing Housing Revenue Account (HRA) limits to facilitate the direct construction of around 500 new homes since 2010. To expand on this programme it needs to work outside the existing HRA limits. In 2014 it established an arms-

53 DCLG, 2014; New Homes Bonus Final Allocations for 2014 to 2015. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/increasing-the-number-of-available-homes/supporting-pages/new- homes-bonus . [Last accessed: 14-04-23]. 54 DCLG (July 2013) New Homes Bonus and the Local Growth Fund, Technical Consultation

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

length development company – called Broadway Living – to borrow and invest PWLB money in creating new and improved housing for Ealing residents. This will include a full range of tenure types with the aim of being self-financing. Initially focused on the regeneration of Copley Close, it will seek to expand its activities with a focus on the Southall Regeneration Area in due course.

Business Rates Retention (BRR)

The Business Rates Retention (BRR) scheme was introduced in April 2013 and provides the opportunity for Councils to retain a proportion of business rates revenue as well as growth on the revenue that is generated. The scheme could be used as a potential mechanism to provide either upfront funds or as a repayment mechanism. Under the BRR scheme local authorities are able to pool together on a voluntary basis to generate additional growth and smooth the impact of volatility in rates income across a wider economic area.

Growing Places Fund

The Growing Places Fund (GPF) is a fund managed by DCLG and DfT, intended to be used to invest in key items of infrastructure to enable development. It is a revolving pot with the loaded money invested to be returned to the devolved administration (the GLA in the London case) for re-investment in further provision of infrastructure. The GLA has been allocated £39.5 million 55 . £6.8 million of GPF funding has been committed to support the Southall Gateway project following a successful bid to the London Enterprise Panel 56 .

Local Growth Fund

The Local Growth Fund (LGF) is part of the Growth Deal which the government will negotiate with each LEP. From April 2015 the LGF will bring together resources to support housing, transport and skills, decentralising those funding streams that are appropriate for devolution. The size of the LGF for 2015/16 is £2.0 billion for England. The allocation of the LGF will be partly competitive, based on local Strategic Economic Plans, and partly based on formula or on a process reflective of the funding source in question.

Transport and housing budgets are already devolved in the capital 57 . This means that the London LEP will only receive Local Growth Fund allocations for ‘Skills’ related funding. Based upon London’s population share and assuming 50% will be allocated formulaically and 50% will be allocated on a competition basis, it is estimated that the London LEP will receive between £13m and £38m 58 .

Local Infrastructure Fund

The Local Infrastructure Fund (LIF) is administered by HCA with repayments from successful applicants being made to the HCA. A £1 billion extension of the Local Infrastructure Fund for large scale housing sites was confirmed in autumn 2013, which will help to unlock around 250,000 homes over 6 years. To be eligible for funding schemes must include a minimum of 1,500 housing units and be able to show strong local support for the scheme. The HCA will

55 DCLG (November 2011) Growing Places Fund 56 http://www.london.gov.uk/priorities/regeneration/high-streets/projects/southall 57 HM Government, (July 2013) Growth Deals Initial Guidance for Local Enterprise Partnerships 58 London LEP (2013); Single Local Growth Fund & European Structural Funds. Available from: https://www.london.gov.uk/moderngov/documents/s27697/Item%2013%20- %20Single%20Local%20Growth%20Fund%20European%20Structural%20Funds%20FINAL.pdf . [Last accessed: 14-04-23].

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

run an annual open competition for funding from 2015 onwards and will engage with the GLA regarding projects in London.

European Structural and Investment Funds

The ‘European Structural and Investment Funds Growth Programme for England’ is a combination of the European Regional Development Fund, the European Social Fund and part of the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development. The relevant bodies and LEPs were informed in June 2012 of their provisional allocations of the European Regional Development Fund and the European Social Fund for 2014-2020, which total to over £5 billion for England as a whole. The London Enterprise Panel (LEP) has been awarded £670m to invest in driving economic development and growth for London. 59 These funds are anticipated to be combined with Local Growth Funding and Growth Deal Funding to deliver complementary activities 60 .

Mayor’s Regeneration Fund

The Mayor’s Regeneration Fund (MRF) is available to support areas that need investment particularly to support town centres and particularly areas that were affected by rioting in 2011. This funding stream (which has supported investment in major projects in Southall) is due to end in 2015. However LBE might benefit from bidding for future funding rounds.

GLA Housing Zone

The Mayor’s Housing Strategy (2014) set outs the Mayor’s strategy for establishing ten housing zones within London. The aim of these zones is to accelerate housing delivery in areas with high development potential. They will have a particular focus on housing delivery and incorporate specific policy interventions designed to unlock housing potential. Detailed proposals have yet to be worked up and agreed. If Southall were to be designated a Housing Zone this could facilitate development. One measure which could be of relevance given the fragmented nature of a number of sites in the Opportunity Area is heightened land assembly powers including compulsory purchase orders. This would enable public sector partners to speed up the development programme and potentially to plough some of the uplift in land value back into infrastructure. This pot is potentially worth up to £20m per zone during the period 2015-18.

In addition, there are a number of funding pots available to support the delivery of housing outside housing zones or alongside housing zone funding within a designated housing zone. These include Build to Rent (HCA), the Affordable Housing programme (GLA) and the potential London Housing Bank, which would provide low cost loans to Registered Providers.

JESSICA

JESSICA funds (Joint European Support for Sustainable Investment in City Areas) are a financial initiative developed by the European Commission, European Investment Bank (EIB) and Council of Europe Development Bank which supports sustainable development and regeneration of urban areas. The funds are allocated to specific geographical areas within the UK. The only fund of potential relevance to Southall is the London Green Fund, a £100m UDF for London which to invest in schemes that will cut London’s carbon emissions. However it is

59 https://www.london.gov.uk/priorities/business-economy/championing-london/london-and-european- structural-funds

60 HM Government, (July 2013) Growth Deals Initial Guidance for Local Enterprise Partnerships

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

unlikely that the infrastructure projects identified for the Opportunity Area would be eligible for this funding.

8.6 Conclusion

If LB Ealing were willing to take on the relevant risks, and subject to further investigation, prudential borrowing, potentially labelled as a RIF, offers the prospect of recovering most of the infrastructure costs in the longer term under the high funding requirement scenario. This though is based on the assumptions we have used in the BNPPRE appraisals and includes taking on the risks associated with the up-front funding. There is the prospect that any remaining more modest funding gap could be covered by the other sources of public sector funding identified above.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

9. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

This study has identified a funding gap of over £32m for infrastructure projects required to facilitate growth in Southall Opportunity Area. Social infrastructure accounts for the largest proportion (90%) of the funding gap. This assumes that only 32% of the funding gap for transport infrastructure projects is attributable to the Opportunity Area. Before discounting transport projects in this way, transport accounts for 26% of the funding gap. Available information indicates that the funding gap is likely to be greater in Phase 2 (2018 to 2022) than in Phase 1 (2013 to 2017). Phase 3 (2023 to 32) accounts for 39% of the funding gap but it should be noted that this phase covers a longer time period than the first two phases.

For the five sites assessed in terms of viability (which together account for most of the unconsented development in the Opportunity Area), the appraisals based on current values indicate that development would be unviable and there would be no surplus potential available to fund infrastructure. Once increasing residential values and costs over the plan period are taken into account it is assessed that for each site apart from The Green some surplus would be potentially available to fund infrastructure, with total potential funding of £17m for the five sites. In addition approximately £4m could come forward from CIL and approximately £6m from s.106.

In total therefore £27m of funding could be available from development towards infrastructure in the Opportunity Area, including s.106 and CIL. This would be close to meeting the funding gap for infrastructure identified for the Opportunity Area. However initial analysis indicates returns from development are likely to be greatest in the later phases of the plan period, leaving a funding gap in the earlier phases.

In order to maximise funding from development, it is recommended that LBE carefully consider its strategy with regard to developer contributions. In the short term, the appraisals indicate that there is no surplus available from development to contribute towards infrastructure. As viability improves, the most effective approach to accessing the surplus available from development may be to remove funding gap items in Southall from the CIL Regulation 123 list so that planning obligations can be negotiated for relevant items on these sites. Alternatively, on the basis of viability evidence the LBE CIL Charging Schedule and Regulation 123 List could be revised to increase CIL rates for Southall (or the whole the LBE).

In practice the degree to which funding can be raised from development in a timely way and spent on the items identified as comprising the infrastructure funding gap will depend on a variety of factors. It is therefore appropriate to consider other funding sources and delivery mechanisms which might fill the funding gap, or facilitate growth by injecting funding earlier, including grants and loans available from the public sector.

The majority of the infrastructure funding gap relates to social infrastructure. While the eligibility criteria for funds such as the Growing Places Fund and the Local Infrastructure Fund do not explicitly limit eligibility according to project type, it is likely that the strongest candidates for these funds will be hard infrastructure and transport projects as these are typically the most obvious ‘showstoppers’ to growth. Social infrastructure is fundamental to creating a sustainable place but is not a physical constraint to growth in the same way that utilities or transport may be. The most promising sources of additional funding for social infrastructure may therefore be prudential borrowing, NHB and other streams which form part of LBE’s wider capital programme.

There are a number of new funding pots available specifically aimed at forward-funding infrastructure with repayment later when land value is released, and Revolving Infrastructure Funds are also gaining attention as a concept and could have relevance to Southall. As well as offering an efficient use of resources, the RIF concept can be marketed as a signal that

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

Southall and Ealing are open for business. Establishing a RIF would require further feasibility work including identification of the optimal mechanisms for up-front funding and repayments. The following issues would also need to considered and confirmed:

• Staffing (roles and responsibilities to be assigned)

• Process for seeking and selecting new schemes

• Monitoring and evaluation

• Contractual arrangements

• Risks management.

The public sector partnerships required to progress the OAPF are already largely in place, for example in the form of the Big Plan Group. However the successful delivery of the OAPF will in particular require joint-working amongst the following key stakeholders:

• Planning policy officers should liaise with development planning officers and service providers with regard to the strategy for maximising developer contributions arising from development in the Opportunity Area

• There should also be on-going engagement with finance officers working on LBE’s capital programme in order to promote Southall infrastructure projects within the programme and investigate the potential for prudential borrowing, NHB and business rates retention to fund infrastructure

• The London LEP and the GLA administer many funding regeneration pots and loan finance schemes and will continue to be important partners in exploiting opportunities for infrastructure funding

• There has been a great deal of engagement with community groups and developers in Southall in recent years including via the Big Conversation, and will be important that this engagement is continued in order to ensure the OAPF responds appropriately to the needs of local residents and businesses.

Southall OAPF Development Infrastructure Funding Strategy

APPENDIX A INFRASTRUCTURE SCHEDULE

Page 1 of 2

Reference Funding Gap Funding Gap Number (For Infrastructure Cost 2014- Funding 2014- Description Location Info. Source Timing (Total) (Opportunity Funding Source Lead Notes Transport category 26 (£'000s) 32 (£'000s) (£'000s) Area) (£'000s) Projects) New school at West Southall (3,450sN.m, two FE junior school and 50 place Gas Works Site GLA Hearing Not New school at West Southall has been planned and funding is committed. Cost and Funding is therefore 'Not Primary Education West Southall 2015-2020 Not applicable 0 0 Developer LBE nursery) Report 2010 applicable applicable' 2018-22 and LBE/ DfE mainstream funding, Primary Education Primary school places for additional population: 5FE (2.5 2FE schools) to 2031. Southall East Schools DPD, URS analysis 21,900 10,950 10,950 10,950 LBE Funding gap assumes 50% of gap likely to be met by mainstream funding post 2023 developer contributions Provision to cater for additional 6.2FE and 1.2 new secondary schools (gross Within study area or LBE/ DfE mainstream funding, Funding gap takes account of £4.3m contribution from SGW and assumes 50% of gap likely to be met by Secondary Schools DPD, URS analysis tbc 22,711 13,506 9,206 9,206 LBE demand) arising from Opportunity Area development borough-wide developer contributions. mainstream funding Gas Works Site GLA Hearing Developer/ LIFT Company – Building Primary Health Care Health facility of up to 2,550sNm (capacity for 8 General Practitioners). West Southall 2023-32 1,640 tbc tbc tbc NHS Ealing Funding gap assumes 50% of gap likely to be met by mainstream funding Report 2010 Better Health (West London) Ltd.

Primary Health Care Net demand for 2GPs in the later years of the plan period. URS analysis 2023-32 785 393 393 393 NHS, LBE, developer contributions. NHS Ealing Funding gap assumes 50% of gap will be met by mainstream funding Gas Works Site GLA Hearing Sports 390 sqm sports pavilion, public park, tennis courts, all weather pitches. West Southall 2015-20 tbc tbc tbc tbc Developer Developer Assume 50% of gap likely to be met by mainstream funding and planned provision/ improvements. Report 2010 Gas Works Site GLA Hearing Sports Financial contribution of £975,000 towards a new swimming pool West Southall 2014 tbc tbc tbc tbc Developer Assume 50% of gap likely to be met by mainstream funding and planned provision/ improvements. Report 2010 Within Opportunity Sports Facilities Calculator indicates gross demand for 3.75 pool lanes (0.94 Assumed that West Southall Gas Works financial contribution of £975,000 towards a new swimming pool will Area or outside as Sports Facilities Calculator/ URS LBE/ mainstream government Sports pools), 5.33 courts (1.33 halls), 0.86 indoor bowls rinks (0.14 centres), 0.16 2023-32 8,400 6,544 1,856 1,856 LBE, GLL meet costs arising for new sports facilities. Funding gap assumes 75% of remaining cost is likely to be met by part of borough- analysis funding, third sector, developers. artificial pitches (sand and 3G). mainstream funding and planned provision/ improvements. wide provision Gas Works Site GLA Hearing Open Space West Southall: 13.5ha public open space and 2.62 ha playspace West Southall 2015-20 tbc tbc tbc tbc Developer LBE Report 2010 Havelock Estate planning Open Space Havelock Estate: new linear park (1.7ha public open space) and play space Havelock Estate 2015-20 tbc tbc tbc tbc Developer LBE application (2013) Open Space Southall East: new local park (1ha) and play space Southall East Draft Southall OAPF tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc Developer LBE Estimated net demand for up to 18.8ha public open space, 1.6ha play space, Net demand accounts for future provsion of public open space within West Southall, Southall East and the Open Space Opportunity Area URS analysis tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc Developer LBE 3.0ha allotments and 13.3ha active recreation space. Havelock Estate. LBE Infrastructure Planning & Mainstream Funding committed - Dine in Southall - Employment & Skills, Hospitality & Catering Training, including Southall Manor Community Funding Gap Report February tbc 1,500 850 650 650 potential additional funds from LBE Apprenticeships House 2014 Mayors Regeneration Fund, GLA Not known / community / Community Relocation of Gurdwara Sri Guru Singh Sabha, Southall Gateway Southall Gateway Southall OAPF Study by JMP tbc 8,000 0 8,000 8,000 LBE development Community St. John's Church Hall Community Hub The Green Southall OAPF tbc 3,500 0 3,500 3,500 Not known / Community LBE Currently funded post 2021 (West Southall s.106 limits development beyond 2,500 units before works undertaken). Ongoing discussions to bring the scheme forward sooner. If funds are secured the physical bridge LBE Development Sites DPD 1 Transport - Road South Road Bridge widening South Road 2016-2021 15,000 15,000 0 0 SGW S106, LBE LBE widening will not take 5 years to complete more like 1 to 2 years depending on rail possession interfaces. Final Proposals Contributes towards unlocking 6,000 new homes, SGW limited to 2,500 units until complete

This scheme is being developed to combine and include both side road flares in one project (but delivery may Beaconsfield Road / Southall OAPF Study Report have to be done sequentially if land required for widening the flares is not secured in the same time frame). 2 Transport - Road Increased flare at Beaconsfield Road / South Road/Park Avenue junction 2015 300 300 0 0 SGW S106, Growing Places LBE South Road LBE issued 031213 Contributes towards 3,750 new homes on SGW and also opens up SG site - 200-400 new homes. Access to be created from South Road for the Southall West development (ie. LBE Development Sites DPD 3 Transport - Road South Road 2015 tbc SGW 106 0 0 SGW S106 Developer SW106 will fund the cost of this item in full. eastern access) Final Proposals New signalised junction at Pump Lane / A312 Parkway to link up with the Gas Highway Study Southall 4 Transport - Road West Southall 2021 tbc SGW 106 0 0 SGW S106 Developer Site access required for Lorries before > 400 homes can be built, full access before > 1,750 homes can be built. Works Development (ie western access) Conclusion report Final road layout and cost estimate unknown . New Road - Grand Union Avenue - to run through East Southall development site LBE Internal Review Project 5 Transport - Road Southall East tbc tbc 0 tbc tbc Developers LBE linking Merrick Road and Havelock. Summary Enables c. 800 new homes and supports development of 230 net new homes on Havelock Developers/ s.106, Growing Places Fund will fund this item in full. LBE Internal Review Project Developers/ s.106, Growing Places 6 Transport - Road Junctions to link with new road Grand Union Avenue Southall East 2015-2017 1,000 1,000 0 0 LBE Summary Fund Directly unlocks Malgavita site (134 homes) Southall Eastern Access - New link road to connect Merrick Road to Armstrong LBE Internal Review Project 7 Transport - Road Southall East tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc LBE Final road layout unknown. Delivery could be beyond planning period. Way via Bridge Road Summary Page 2 of 2

Reference Funding Gap Funding Gap Number (For Infrastructure Cost 2014- Funding 2014- (Opport- Description Location Info. Source Timing (Total) Funding Source Lead Partner Notes Transport category 26 (£'000s) 32 (£'000s) unity Area) (£'000s) Projects) (£'000s) AECOM Corridors and Neigh- 8 Transport - Road Armstrong Way / Windmill Lane Junction Southall East bourhoods Study corridor 12 - tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc LBE Final road layout unknown. Delivery could be beyond planning period. Tentelow Lane Incremental in response to S.106 contributions from Southall Gas Works will focus on improving services that route to/from Southall West. Its 9 Transport - Bus New services in Southall East / Havelock and West Southall (revenue funding) Opportunity Area Draft Southall OAPF tbc tbc tbc tbc Gasworks s.106 TFL development possible that some new routes or extensions could also help Southall East. timetable

Estimated cost. CCM funding bid to be submitted summer 2014. Assume 32% (upper bound) of total funding gap Southall Station redevelopment to cater for crossrail with enhanced interchange, attributable to OA. Need to cross check funding situation. LBE Project Summary states "All aspects fully funded Development Sites DPD Final 10 Transport - Bus / NMU cycle hub and direct street level crossing to West Southall. (Southall Great Streets Southall Station 2021 3,550 0 3,550 1,136 CCM Funding LBE except bridge which has total current estimate of £4.3m" Can LBE's Transport team advise? Proposals 5) Enables public realm and pedestrian accessibility Southall OAPF Study Report This infrastructure may not be required if the Southall Eastern Access link road above is proven viable and 11 Transport - NMU New access to Havelock estate at Glade Lane Havelock tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc LBE LBE issued 031213 delivered. Assume 32% (upper bound) of total funding gap attributable to OA. Southall East Bridge - Proposed cycle footbridge over railway between Merrick Development Sites DPD Final Growing Places Fund recouped via 12 Transport - NMU Southall East 2017 3,000 1,000 2,000 640 LBE Road and Park Avenue Proposals s.106 (£1m) Contributes towards unlocking 6,000 new homes. A feasibility study has recently been comissioned which may provide a more robust estimate of cost. We have assumed £3 for the purposes of this study. High Street 'Shoulders' -Extension of Southall Broadway project to cover the High LBE Internal Review Project 13 Transport - NMU High Street tbc 600 0 600 192 tbc LBE Assume 32% (upper bound) of total funding gap attributable to OA. Street east of the South Road junction Summary 2 New Pedestrian bridges over the Grand Union Canal to link West Southall with 14 Transport - Pedestrian West Southall Draft Southall OAPF tbc tbc tbc 0 0 West Southall s.106 Developer Southall West s.106 will fund this item in full. Minet Country Park 15 Transport - Pedestrian Implement Legible London - signage to improve way finding Opportunity Area Draft Southall OAPF tbc 50 0 50 16 tbc LBE Assume 32% (upper bound) of total funding gap attributable to OA. Assume 32% (upper bound) of total funding gap attributable to OA. King Street / The Green Improvements - safety and accessibility (Southall Great King Street/The LBE Internal Review Project LIP, developers 16 Transport - Pedestrian tbc 1,650 0 1,650 528 LBE Streets 5) Green Summary Enables public realm and pedestrian accessibility and potential new cycle route

MRF, LBE, LIP,S106, Highways PRN, Public Realm projects 1-9 below - Urban Realm Improvements to 8 public spaces LBE Internal Review Project Town Centre Capital Contingency, 17 Transport - Pedestrian Opportunity Area 2014-15 2,000 2,000 0 0 LBE Enables public realm and pedestrian accessibility (03 cancelled; 04 delayed) Summary Additional PRN Resource, Shop front, LBE Star

LBE Internal Review Project Transport - Pedestrian Public realm 01 - Southall Park Southall Park See entry 17 above for details Summary LBE Internal Review Project Transport - Pedestrian Public realm 02 - The Old Odeon (Lidl) Square High Street See entry 17 above for details Summary LBE Internal Review Project Transport - Pedestrian Public realm 04 - Southall Station Signage Southall Station See entry 17 above for details Delayed due to objection from Network Rail - aim to resolve through SR bridge widening / CCM plans. Summary LBE Internal Review Project Transport - Pedestrian Public realm05 - Saint Anselm's The Green See entry 17 above for details Summary LBE Internal Review Project Transport - Pedestrian Public realm 06 - Manor House Square & Parade The Green See entry 17 above for details Summary LBE Internal Review Project Transport - Pedestrian Public realm 07 - Dominion Corner The Green See entry 17 above for details Summary LBE Internal Review Project Transport - Pedestrian Public realm 08 - Western Road Corner The Green See entry 17 above for details Summary LBE Internal Review Project Transport - Pedestrian Public realm 09 - Norwood Road Corner King Street See entry 17 above for details Summary 2 Quietways proposed In Mini Holland bid - Ealing to Southall and Southall to LBE Internal Review Project Assume 32% (upper bound) of total funding gap attributable to OA. 18 Transport - Cycle LBE 2015/2016 2,100 0 2,100 672 LBE Hounslow Summary Enables public realm and cycling accessibility 19 Transport - Road Southall Broadway (Southall Great Streets 1) Southall Broadway TfL tbc 6,300 6,300 0 0 TfL, MRF, LBE LBE Funding for this item will be met in full from TfL, MRF, LBE 20 Transport - Road Works to Bulls Bridge and J3 access to M4 J3 access to M4 TfL/LBE tbc tbc tbc 0 0 S.106 SGW Developer Within Opportunity Utilities and Hard Area or outside as Ealing Southall Energy LBE/ Energy Services District Energy System - Core 2021-26 5,700 5,700 0 0 Funding for this item will be met in full from National Grid and local suppliers. Infrastructure part of borough- Masterplan 2013 Company wide provision

Within Opportunity Utilities and Hard Area or outside as LBE Infrastructure Planning & Gas and electricity - on-going expansion and maintenance of supply network tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc National Grid Infrastructure part of borough- Funding Gap Report (2014) wide provision

Within Opportunity Utilities and Hard Area or outside as LBE Infrastructure Planning & Sewerage - on-going expansion and maintenance of supply network tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc Thames Water Infrastructure part of borough- Funding Gap Report (2014) wide provision

Within Opportunity London Plan Implementation Utilities and Hard Area or outside as Plan 2012; Thames Water: Water - on-going expansion and maintenance of supply network tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc Thames Water Infrastructure part of borough- Water Resources Management wide provision Plan 2010-2035

Within Opportunity LBE Infrastructure Planning & Utilities and Hard Area or outside as LBE/ West London Waste management Funding Gap Report February tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc Private contractor Infrastructure part of borough- WDA 2014 wide provision

Within Opportunity LBE, Environment Utilities and Hard Area or outside as REMA London Plan (2013) and Flood Risk Management tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc Agency, DEFRA, Canals Infrastructure part of borough- Environment Agency and Rivers Trust wide provision