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DB Financial Investment 빅히트, Number 1 Hit Maker 3

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DB Financial Investment 빅히트, Number 1 Hit Maker 3 빅히트, Number 1 Hit Maker 1 DB Financial Investment 2 빅히트 Summary K-Pop 대장 방탄소년단의 소속사 빅히트에 대해 투자의견 Buy, 목표주가 33만원으로 커버리지를 개시한다. 목표주가는 본업인 엔터테인먼트 사업가치에 위버스 지분가치를 합산하여 산정했다. 본업은 BTS의 파급력 감안하여 엔터업종 평균보다 높은 PER 50배를 적용했고 위버스 지분 가치는 이용자당 가치 접근했는데 위버스 이용자 성향이 국내 금융 플랫폼 이용자보다 수익화에 더 용이하다는 점을 반영하여 평균에 30% 할증한 이용자당 46만원을 적용했다. 빅히트는 BTS를 필두로 넘사벽 국내 No.1 음반/공연 Seller로 자리매김했고 위버스를 통한 아티스트 간접 참여형 매출 비중 확대로 아이돌 콘텐츠의 단점을 보완하며 IP로서의 가치를 제고하고 있다. 이러한 기조가 유지되면서 빅히트는 21년에도 실적 개선세를 이어갈 것으로 전망된다. 목표주가(신규) 330,000원 현재주가(02/16) 248,000원 Up/Downside +33.1% 빅히트는 현재 21E 실적 기준 PER 48배로 엔터업종 Peer 대비 높은 밸류에이션 수준에서 거래되고 투자의견(신규) Buy 있다. 하지만 엔터테인먼트 본업에서는 K-Pop 아이돌 대장 BTS의 파급력, TxT/세븐틴의 성장으로 강해지는 라인업, 그리고 팬덤 플랫폼 위버스를 통한 아티스트 간접형 매출 확대 및 지분 가치 등을 고려하면 이는 충분히 정당화될 수 있고 현재 주가 수준에서도 상승 여력이 있다고 판단된다. Investment Fundamentals (IFRS연결) (단위: 십억원, 원, 배, %) Stock Data FYE Dec 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 52주 최저/최고 142,000/258,000원 매출액 301 587 849 1,108 1,441 KOSDAQ /KOSPI 978/3,163pt 시가총액 88,347억원 (증가율) NA 94.9 44.5 30.6 30.0 60日-평균거래량 494,991 영업이익 80 99 159 211 274 외국인지분율 9.6% (증가율) NA 23.5 60.8 32.7 30.1 60日-외국인지분율변동추이 +6.2%p 주요주주 방시혁 외 2 인 34.8% 지배주주순이익 -70 74 113 151 196 (천원) 빅히트(좌) (pt) KOSPI 지수대비(우) EPS -3,373 2,950 3,931 4,227 5,514 500 200 PER (H/L) NA/NA NA/NA 40.7 58.7 45.0 PBR (H/L) NA/NA NA/NA 18.7 19.4 13.6 0 0 20/02 20/05 20/08 20/12 EV/EBITDA (H/L) NA/NA NA/NA 32.4 39.3 29.3 주가상승률 1M 3M 12M 영업이익률 26.5 16.8 18.7 19.0 19.0 절대기준 58.0 44.6 0.0 54.1 16.3 ROE -80.8 56.5 47.3 39.7 35.5 상대기준 0.0 DB Financial Investment 빅히트, Number 1 Hit Maker 3 Contents Ⅰ. Buy No.1 Hit Maker ......................................................................................................................... 4 투자의견 Buy, 목표주가 33 만원으로 No.1 Hit Maker 빅히트 커버리지 개시 ...................... 4 투자포인트 1) 넘사벽 국내 No.1 음반/공연 Seller 로 자리매김한 빅히트 .............................. 5 투자포인트 2) 빅히트, 위버스로 아이돌 IP 가치 제고 ....................................................................... 6 실적 및 밸류에이션............................................................................................................................................... 7 Ⅱ. 빅히트, Number 1 Hit Maker ......................................................................................................10 방탄소년단을 배출한 빅히트 엔터테인먼트 .......................................................................................... 10 빅히트, 국내 No.1 엔터테인먼트 회사로 자리매김 ........................................................................... 12 BTS, K-Pop’s Biggest Hit ............................................................................................................................... 15 III. 빅히트, 위버스로 아이돌 IP 가치 제고 .......................................................................................21 팬덤이 확보된 콘텐츠는 IP 로서 가치 상승 .......................................................................................... 21 빅히트는 위버스로 아이돌 콘텐츠 IP 의 단점 보완 .......................................................................... 23 DB Financial Investment 4 빅히트 Ⅰ. Buy No.1 Hit Maker 투자의견 Buy, 목표주가 33만원으로 No.1 Hit Maker 빅히트 커버리지 개시 K-Pop 대장 방탄소년단의 소속사 빅히트에 대해 투자의견 Buy, 목표주가 33만원으로 커버리지를 개시한다. 목표주가는 본업인 엔터테인먼트 사업가치에 위버스 지분가치를 합산하여 산정했다. 본업은 어나더레벨의 K-Pop 아이돌 BTS의 파급력에 기반한 정량 지표, TxT/세븐틴의 성장으로 보강된 아이 돌 라인업을 감안하여 엔터업종 Peer 21E 실적 기준 평균 PER 33배에 50% 할증한 PER 50배를 적용했다. 그리고 아티스트 간접형 매출 확대를 견인하고 있는 팬덤 플랫폼 위버스에 대해서는 이용자당 가치로 평가받는 간편결제/인터넷뱅킹 플랫폼과 상대 비교하였다. 위버스 이용자 성향이 충성심이 강하고 스펜딩 목적이 뚜렷하여 수익화가 용이하다는 점을 반영하여 브이라이브와 위버스 합산 MAU 3,500 만명에 국내 주요 금융 플랫폼의 평균 AU당 가치 대비 30% 할증한 46만원을 적용하여 위버스 지분 가치를 산정했다. 도표 1. 빅히트 목표주가 산정 내역 (단위: 억원, 주, 원 ) 구분 본업 가치 1) 부문 21E 매출액 영업이익 NOPLAT 적용 멀티플 적정가치 비고 엔터테인먼트 사업 6,983 899 674 50.0 33,713 엔터업종 적용 PER 35배에 50% 할증 본업 가치 합계 6,983 899 674 33,713 지분 가치 2) 자회사 적정가치 지분율 지분가치 비고 비엔엑스 161,000 50.9 MAU 3,500만명에 AI당 가치 46만원(국내 82,110 주요 금융 플랫폼 대비 30% 할증) 적용 지분 가치 합계 82,110 적정 시가총액 115,823 1)+2) 주식수 35,624,000 적정 주가 325,125 목표주가 330,000 자료: DB금융투자 DB Financial Investment 빅히트, Number 1 Hit Maker 5 투자포인트 1) 넘사벽 국내 No.1 음반/공연 Seller로 자리매김한 빅히트 빅히트는 국내 No.1 엔터테인먼트 회사로 자리매김했다. BTS를 필두로 음반 및 공연 셀링 파워에서 국내 Peer보다 우위를 점하고 있다. 빅히트는 BTS/TxT와 더불어 쏘스뮤직/ 플레디스 인수를 통해 보 강된 여자친구, 세븐틴, 뉴이스트에 힘입어 20년 약 1,300만장의 음반을 판매하며 국내 음반 시장에 서 32%의 압도적인 점유율을 차지했다. 국내 Top 10 음반 셀러 중 세 팀이 빅히트 소속이며 21년에 도 보강된 아이돌 라인업을 기반으로 빅히트는 음반 판매 호조를 이어갈 수 있을 것으로 보인다. 빅히트 소속 아이돌들의 19년 글로벌 공연 모객수는 BTS 151만명, 세븐틴 39만명, 여자친구 7만명, 뉴이스트 7만명이고 Top 10 K-Pop 공연 모객러 중 두 팀이 빅히트 소속이다. 그 중 BTS는 서구권에 서 대규모 투어를 진행할 수 있는 국내 유일한 팀이다.. 향후 대면 공연이 재개되면 빅히트는 BTS와 보강된 라인업을 통해 모객이 확대될 것으로 보인다. 특히 코로나19로 취소됐지만 20년 5월 일본 돔 투어 5회가 계획될 정도로 모객력이 강화된 세븐틴의 기여도가 높아질 것 으로 예상된다. 도표 2. 빅히트 아이돌 라인업 국내 발매 음반 연간 판매량 도표 3. 국내 Top 아이돌 음반 셀러 국내 연간 음반 판매량(좌) (만장) (만장) 빅히트 (%) 방탄소년단 5,000 SM 40 1,000 NCT YG 세븐틴 JYP EXO 4,000 블랙핑크 30 750 아이즈원 TWICE 3,000 투모로우바이투게더 Stray Kids 20 500 GOT7 2,000 10 250 1,000 0 0 0- 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 자료: 가온챠트, DB금융투자 자료: 가온차트, DB금융투자 주: 빅히트 점유율에서 쏘스뮤직 /플레디스 판매량은 인수 시점부터 반영 도표 4. 케이팝 공연 모객수/주요 기획사별 점유율 추이 도표 5. 주요 아이돌 별 아시아 외 모객력 (만명) 케이팝 공연 모객수(좌) (%) (만명) SM 900 60 아시아 외 모객수 JYP 70 YG 750 Big Hit 50 60 50 600 40 40 450 30 30 300 20 20 10 150 10 0 0- 0 BTS 빅뱅 EXO 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 GOT7 샤이니 세븐틴 NCT127 트와이스 블랙핑크 동방신기 자료: 각사, DB금융투자 자료: DB금융투자 주: 빅히트 점유율에서 쏘스뮤직 모객은 인수 시점부터 반영 주: 빅뱅 16년, 동방신기 18년, EXO 16년, 샤이니 17년, 나머지 19년 모객수 기준 DB Financial Investment 6 빅히트 투자포인트 2) 빅히트, 위버스로 아이돌 IP 가치 제고 국내 음악 시장을 대표하는 아이돌 콘텐츠는 IP로서의 가치가 충분하다고 판단된다. 이는 인기 아이돌 그룹은 충성도 높은 팬덤이 형성되어 있고 K-Pop의 글로벌 인지도가 높아지면서 팬덤 규모는 더 커지고 있기 때문이다. 엔터사들은 아이돌 팬덤을 기반으로. 지속적인 신규 앨범 제작, 콘서트 개최, 아이돌 관련 부가상품 판매 등 아이돌 콘텐츠 IP 확장을 지속하고 있다. 다만 아이돌 콘텐츠 IP는 단점 도 존재한다. 이는 인적자원에 기반한 콘텐츠이기 때문에 안정성 측면에서 불리한 점이 있다. 남자 아이돌의 경우 대부분 군입대를 통한 활동 공백이 대표적이다. 이 외에도 사건사고, 계약 이슈 등 아이돌의 지속적인 활동에 걸림돌이 될 수 있는 요인들이 존재하며 이는 엔터사들의 실적에 직결된다. 빅히트는 위버스를 통한 아티스트 간접 참여형 매출 비중 확대로 아이돌 콘텐츠의 IP로서의 가치를 제고하고 있다. 위버스는 팬덤을 대상으로 아티스트와의 커뮤니케이션 활성화 및 독점 콘텐츠를 제공 한다. 이를 통해 아티스트의 팬층을 위버스로 유입을 유도하고, 팬심을 고조시켜 팬클럽 가입, 유료 서비스 결제, 콘텐츠/굿즈/콘서트 구매 등 수익화로 연결하는 것이 전략이다. 이와 관련 매출은 실물 아이돌의 간접 참여만으로도 발생 가능하기 때문에 위버스를 통해 아티스트 IP의 활용도를 높여 인적 자원 기반의 아이돌 콘텐츠 IP의 단점을 보완한다고 판단된다. 도표 6. 국내 콘텐츠 장르별 IP 가치 평가 게임 음악(아이돌) 영화 드라마 팬덤 충성도 ● ● X X 라이프 사이클 ● ▲ X X 콘텐츠 안정성 ● X ▲ ▲ 콘텐츠 IP 확장성 ● ● ▲ ▲ 장르 확장성 X X ▲ ▲ 플랫폼 확장성 ● ● ▲ ▲ 라이선싱 확장성 ● ● X X 자료: DB금융투자 도표 7. 빅히트 아티스트 직/간접 참여형 매출 구분 (단위: 억원, % ) 2018 2019 1H20 아티스트 직접참여형 매출 2,075 3,195 1,535 앨범 1,054 1,083 1,329 공연 877 1,911 15 기타 매니지먼트 143 201 190 아티스트 간접참여형 매출 939 2,677 1,405 MD 및 라이선싱 513 1,682 899 콘텐츠 335 780 352 기타 매니지먼트 92 215 154 매출 합계 3,014 5,872 2,940 직접참여형 비중 68.8 54.4 52.2 간접참여형 비중 31.2 45.6 47.8 자료: DB금융투자 DB Financial Investment 빅히트, Number 1 Hit Maker 7 실적 및 밸류에이션 21년에도 실적 개선 이어질 것으로 전망 빅히트의 20년 실적은 매출액 8,487억원(YoY +44%), 영업이익 1,588억원(YoY+61%)으로 전망된다. 코로나19 여파로 오프라인 공연이 불가한 상황에서 음반판매량 호조, 온라인 공연 흥행, 팬덤 플랫폼 위버스의 안착 등이 실적 성장을 견인한 것으로 보인다. 21년에도 작년과 유사한 기조가 이어지는 가운데 보강된 아이돌 라인업 성과의 온기 반영, 하반기 오프라인 공연 재개 가정 등을 감안한 21년 실적은 매출액 1.1조원(YoY +31%), 영업이익 2,108억원 (YoY +33%)으로 실적 개선세가 이어질 수 것으로 전망된다. 도표 8. 빅히트 실적 추이 및 전망 (단위:억원, %, 만장, 만명 ) 1H19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20E 2019 2020E 2021E 매출액 3,201 1,440 1,386 1554 1,900 3,647 5,872 8,487 11,083 YoY 54.3 153.3 94.8 44.5 30.6 영업이익 519 232 236 207 291 401 689 987 1,588 2,108 YoY 72.8 191.9 23.6 60.9 32.7 OPM 16.2 18.8 16.4 14.9 21.1 18.9 16.8 18.7 19.0 1H19 YoY 2H19 YoY 1H20 YoY 3Q20 4Q20F 2019 2020F 2021F 구분별 매출액 3,201 2,671 2,940 -8.2 1,900 3,647 5,872 8,487 11,083 앨범 743 340 1,329 78.9 450 1,119 1,083 2,898 3,305 공연 1,315 596 15 -98.9 0 100 1,911 115 1,089 MD/라이선싱 719 963 899 25.0 950 1,275 1,682 3,124 3,436 콘텐츠 256 524 352 37.5 200 640 780 1,192 1,603 기타 168 248 345 105.4 300 513 416 1,158 1,649 지역별 매출액 3,201 2,671 2,940 -8.2 1,900 3,647 5,872 8,487 11,083 한국 801 680 1,008 25.8 375 933 1,481 2,316 2,588 아시아 985 297 548 -44.4 204 507 1,282 1,259 1,408 북미 615 1,094 588 -4.4 382 439 1,709 1,409 1,706 기타지역 542 133 31 -94.3 100 60 675 191 573 온라인 258 467 765 196.5 838 1,708 725 3,311 4,808 음반 판매량 69 476 149 95 511 236 190 568 788 1,505 1,716 BTS 43 471 140 74 449 46 113 386 727 994 1,060 TXT 17 4 1 21 14 30 20 51 43 116 160 여자친구 10 1 8 0 8 0 9 6 18 23 26 세븐틴 67 6 83 7 39 139 48 125 162 351 400 뉴이스트 0 26 0 22 0 20 0 0 49 20 70 공연 모객수 27 75 19 38 0 0 0 10 159 10 110 BTS 26 72 16 37 - - - 10 151 10 75 TXT - 1 - - - - - - 1 0 10 여자친구 1 2 2 2 - - - - 7 0 0 세븐틴 0 23 4 11 - - - - 39 0 25 뉴이스트 - 3 - 3 - - - - 7 0 0 자료: DB금융투자 DB Financial Investment 8 빅히트 빅히트, 높은 밸류에이션 정당화 가능 빅히트는 현재 21E 실적 기준 PER 48배로 엔터업종 Peer 대비 높은 밸류에이션 수준에서 거래되고 있다.
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