Piercing the Fog of Peace Developing Innovative Operational Concepts for a New Era

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Piercing the Fog of Peace Developing Innovative Operational Concepts for a New Era PIERCING THE FOG OF PEACE DEVELOPING INNOVATIVE OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS FOR A NEW ERA THOMAS G. MAHNKEN GRACE B. KIM ADAM LEMON PIERCING THE FOG OF PEACE DEVELOPING INNOVATIVE OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS FOR A NEW ERA THOMAS G. MAHNKEN GRACE B. KIM ADAM LEMON 2019 ABOUT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS (CSBA) The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent, nonpartisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security strategy and investment options. CSBA’s analysis focuses on key questions related to existing and emerging threats to U.S. national security, and its goal is to enable policymakers to make informed decisions on matters of strategy, security policy, and resource allocation. ©2019 Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. All rights reserved. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Thomas G. Mahnken is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He is a Senior Research Professor at the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at The Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and has served for over 20 years as an officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve, to include tours in Iraq and Kosovo. He currently serves as a member of the Congressionally-mandated National Defense Strategy Commission and as a member of the Board of Visitors of Marine Corps University. His previous government career includes service as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy Planning from 2006–2009, where he helped craft the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review and 2008 National Defense Strategy. He served on the staff of the 2014 National Defense Panel, 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel, and the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. He served in the Defense Department’s Office of Net Assessment and as a member of the Gulf War Air Power Survey. In 2009 he was awarded the Secretary of Defense Medal for Outstanding Public Service and in 2016 the Department of the Navy Superior Civilian Service Medal. Grace B. Kim is an Analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. At CSBA, she focuses on trends in future warfare, long-term military competition, and U.S. security policy in East Asia and the Middle East. Prior to CSBA, Grace worked in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Policy and the Treasury Department’s East Asia Office. She also served as a Turkish Linguist on the Syria Team for the Institute for the Study of War and Research Assistant focusing on the Middle East and European security policy at the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies in Istanbul, Turkey. From 2013 to 2014, she was a Fulbright research fellow at Bogazici University in Istanbul, Turkey. Adam Lemon is a Research Assistant at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. At CSBA, his work focuses on nuclear weapons, missiles and missile defense, naval warfare, and long-term geopolitical competitions. Prior to joining CSBA, Adam was a student at Duke University, graduating in 2017 and focusing on grand strategy, civil-military relations, and Eurasian geopoli- tics. He has also served as a research intern in the Center for National Defense at the Heritage Foundation and as an intern in the office of Congresswoman Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (WA-05). ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank Ross Babbage, Hal Brands, Bryan Clark, Eric Edelman, David Fahrenkrug, Evan Montgomery, and several reviewers who wish to remain anonymous for their insightful comments on previous drafts of this monograph, and Kamilla Gunzinger for her editing and publication support. The analysis and findings presented here are solely the responsibility of the authors. CSBA receives funding from a broad and diverse group of contributors, including private foundations, government agencies, and corporations. A complete list of these organizations can be found on our website at www.csbaonline.org/about/contributors. Cover: The U.S. Navy aircraft carriers USS Saratoga and USS Lexington off Diamond Head on February 2, 1933 while both ships were awaiting the official beginning of exercise Fleet Problem XIV. U.S. Navy Photo. Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................. i U.S. Great Power Competition with Imperial Japan ................................i Emerging Chinese Threat Trends. ii Questionable Strategic and Operational Assumptions ............................. iv The Need for Innovative Operational Concepts to Meet Emerging Challenges .............v INTRODUCTION ........................................................................ 1 PLANNING FOR GREAT POWER COMPETITION: THE INTERWAR PERIOD .......................... 3 EMERGING THREAT TRENDS ........................................................... 13 Strategic Geography and the Tyranny of Distance ............................... 14 Chinese Economic Growth and Defense Spending .............................. 16 Military Modernization .................................................. 17 Informationized Warfare ................................................. 19 A2/AD Capabilities .................................................... 20 Medium-Range Ballistic and Cruise Missiles .................................. 20 Wide-Area Surveillance and Targeting . 23 Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) ....................................... 23 5th Generation Fighters .................................................. 25 Advanced Bombers and Fighter-Bombers .................................... 25 Submarines ......................................................... 27 Modern Surface Combatants ............................................. 28 Underground Facilities (UGF) .............................................. 30 Nuclear Forces ....................................................... 31 Space Capabilities ..................................................... 34 Cyber Capabilities ..................................................... 36 QUESTIONABLE STRATEGIC AND OPERATIONAL ASSUMPTIONS ............................... 39 Questionable Strategic Assumptions ........................................ 41 THE NEED FOR INNOVATIVE OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS TO MEET EMERGING CHALLENGES ......... 49 Conclusion .......................................................... 55 LIST OF ACRONYMS .................................................................. 57 FIGURES FIGURE 1: THE STRATEGIC GEOGRAPHY OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC ...................... 4 FIGURE 2: WAR PLAN ORANGE, 1924 ........................................... 6 FIGURE 3: WAR PLAN ORANGE, POST-1935 REVISION ................................ 8 FIGURE 4: MAP OF THE FIRST AND SECOND ISLAND CHAINS. 15 FIGURE 5: CHINA’S OFFICIAL DEFENSE BUDGET (2007–2018) ......................... 17 FIGURE 6: DF-26 IRBM DURING PLA PARADE ..................................... 22 FIGURE 7: PAYLOAD DELIVERABLE BY CHINESE MISSILES AND AIRCRAFT ................ 26 FIGURE 8: SIZE OF PLAN SUBMARINE FORCE (1990–2018) .......................... 27 FIGURE 9: LAUNCHING OF CHINA’S SECOND AIRCRAFT CARRIER, 2017 .................. 29 FIGURE 10: CUMULATIVE TOTAL NUMBER OF CHINESE SATELLITE LAUNCHES ............. 34 FIGURE 11: PAST ASSUMPTIONS AND CURRENT CHALLENGES TO U.S. AIR POWER ......... 47 FIGURE 12: X-47B UAS LAUNCHING FROM DECK OF USS GEORGE H.W. BUSH ............. 52 FIGURE 13: U.S. ARMY VEHICLE FIRES NAVAL STRIKE MISSILE AT RIMPAC 2018 ........... 54 TABLES TABLE 1: PLARF GROUND-LAUNCHED BALLISTIC AND CRUISE MISSILE INVENTORY .......... 20 TABLE 2: WORLD NUCLEAR FORCES, JANUARY 2018 ............................... 32 www.csbaonline.org i Executive Summary The 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) and the Congressionally-mandated 2018 National Defense Strategy Commission refocused U.S. defense planning on the reality of competi- tion and the possibility of conflict with China and Russia and highlighted the urgent need to address eroding military balances and growing operational challenges through the develop- ment of innovative operational concepts.1 Although additional resources are clearly required to meet near-term challenges and modernize for competition and conflict in the 21st century, bigger budgets will likely prove insufficient to support the national defense strategy without innovative operational concepts that can bridge the gap between our ends and our means. This paper is meant to stimulate discussion of, and ultimately spur action to develop, the concepts and capabilities the United States will need to prevail in a more dangerous world. U.S. Great Power Competition with Imperial Japan For the United States to prepare for great power competition, it is useful to examine a previous period during which the United States dealt with a great power rival: Imperial Japan during the first four decades of the 20th century. Then, as now, the United States faced an ambitious rising power in East Asia during a period of rapid technological and doctrinal change.2 The U.S. solution to this problem was War Plan ORANGE, a plan for a single-theater war in the Western Pacific between the United States and Japan initially based upon a rapid U.S. trans- Pacific naval lunge to defend U.S. possessions, primarily the Philippines, against Japanese 1 DoD, Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America: Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge (Washington,
Recommended publications
  • Alternative Naval Force Structure
    Alternative Naval Force Structure A compendium by CIMSEC Articles By Steve Wills · Javier Gonzalez · Tom Meyer · Bob Hein · Eric Beaty Chuck Hill · Jan Musil · Wayne P. Hughes Jr. Edited By Dmitry Filipoff · David Van Dyk · John Stryker 1 Contents Preface ................................................................................................................................ 3 The Perils of Alternative Force Structure ................................................... 4 By Steve Wills Unmanned­Centric Force Structure ............................................................... 8 By Javier Gonzalez Proposing A Modern High Speed Transport – The Long Range Patrol Vessel ................................................................................................... 11 By Tom Meyer No Time To Spare: Drawing on History to Inspire Capability Innovation in Today’s Navy ................................................................................. 15 By Bob Hein Enhancing Existing Force Structure by Optimizing Maritime Service Specialization .............................................................................................. 18 By Eric Beaty Augment Naval Force Structure By Upgunning The Coast Guard .......................................................................................................... 21 By Chuck Hill A Fleet Plan for 2045: The Navy the U.S. Ought to be Building ..... 25 By Jan Musil Closing Remarks on Changing Naval Force Structure ....................... 31 By Wayne P. Hughes Jr. CIMSEC 22 www.cimsec.org
    [Show full text]
  • Security & Defence European
    a 7.90 D European & Security ES & Defence 4/2016 International Security and Defence Journal Protected Logistic Vehicles ISSN 1617-7983 • www.euro-sd.com • Naval Propulsion South Africa‘s Defence Exports Navies and shipbuilders are shifting to hybrid The South African defence industry has a remarkable breadth of capa- and integrated electric concepts. bilities and an even more remarkable depth in certain technologies. August 2016 Jamie Shea: NATO‘s Warsaw Summit Politics · Armed Forces · Procurement · Technology The backbone of every strong troop. Mercedes-Benz Defence Vehicles. When your mission is clear. When there’s no road for miles around. And when you need to give all you’ve got, your equipment needs to be the best. At times like these, we’re right by your side. Mercedes-Benz Defence Vehicles: armoured, highly capable off-road and logistics vehicles with payloads ranging from 0.5 to 110 t. Mobilising safety and efficiency: www.mercedes-benz.com/defence-vehicles Editorial EU Put to the Test What had long been regarded as inconceiv- The second main argument of the Brexit able became a reality on the morning of 23 campaigners was less about a “democratic June 2016. The British voted to leave the sense of citizenship” than of material self- European Union. The majority that voted for interest. Despite all the exception rulings "Brexit", at just over 52 percent, was slim, granted, the United Kingdom is among and a great deal smaller than the 67 percent the net contribution payers in the EU. This who voted to stay in the then EEC in 1975, money, it was suggested, could be put to but ignoring the majority vote is impossible.
    [Show full text]
  • Chronological Table
    Chronological Table 1895 25 June Salisbury's third administration 29 December Jameson raid 1896 3 January Kaiser's telegram to Kruger 1898 17 January Salisbury's unsuccessful overture to Russia for co-operation in China 25 March Cabinet decides to lease Wei-hai-wei from China 29 March Chamberlain's bid for Anglo-German al- liance 10 April Reichstag ratifies First Naval Law 4 May Salisbury's 'dying nations' speech 13 May Chamberlain's bid for friendship of U.S.A. and Germany (Birmingham speech) 14 June Anglo-French convention over West Africa 30 August Anglo-German agreement over Portuguese colonies 2 September Battle of Omdurman 18 September- December Anglo-French crisis over Fashoda 1899 21 March Anglo-French convention over Central Af­ rica: France excluded from Valley of Nile 18 May- 29 June First Hague Peace Conference 12 October Boer War begins 14 November Anglo-German agreement over Samoa 30 November Chamberlain proposes Triple Alliance (Leicester speech) 10-15 December 'Black Week' in Boer War I goo January Bundesrath affair 27-28 February Formation of London Representation Com­ mittee 17 May Relief of Mafeking CHRONOLOGICAL TABLE 259 13 June- 14 August Boxer rising in China 14 June Second German Naval Law 16 October Anglo-German agreement over China (Yangtze) November Salisbury relinquishes Foreign Office to Lansdowne 1901 22 January Death of Victoria; accession of Edward VII 12 March Lansdowne's draft alliance for German co­ operation in Far East 15 March Bulow denies China agreement's application to Manchuria March-May Anglo-German discussions continue 29 May Salisbury's objections to a German alliance 25 October Chamberlain's Edinburgh speech defending British policy in South Africa 16 December U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Topical Essays ------17 It 6
    Topical Essays The Importance of Alliances for U.S. Security Martin Murphy “No man is an island, entire of itself,” wrote as influential at various times as the United the English poet John Donne in 1624.1 The States or Great Britain, can disengage from same is true of nations. the world. Such a nation must instead be free The United States now sits at the apex of an to choose when to engage and when not to en- international network of alliances brought to- gage—and, most momentously, when to go to gether during the Cold War, but this has not al- war and when to walk away. ways been America’s situation. In earlier times, especially at its inception, the U.S. benefited Wisdom and Utility of Alliances from alliances, generally as the junior partner. An equally spirited debate about the wis- Success in the Revolutionary War was helped dom and utility of alliances continues today. by a crucial alliance with France, a country that Repeatedly, alliances are referred to as bur- the infant U.S. shortly thereafter fought in the dens, an elastic term that can be stretched 2 undeclared Quasi-War (1798–1800). to include everything from moral hazard to It is true that George Washington, in his free riding. Farewell Address of 1796, warned his coun- The burden of moral hazard is that states, trymen that they should not “entangle our including states of roughly equivalent weights, peace and prosperity in the toils of European may feel emboldened to pursue riskier for- ambition,” an admonition that has come to be eign policies because their allies are obligated viewed as a warning against “foreign entan- to come to their rescue.
    [Show full text]
  • Identity, 1898–1910
    THE AMERICAN WAY OF EMPIRE: NATIONAL TRADITION AND TRANSATLANTIC ADAPTATION IN AMERICA’S SEARCH FOR IMPERIAL IDENTITY, 1898–1910 Frank Schumacher1 University of Erfurt GHI Postdoctoral Fellow, 2002 After victory in the Spanish-American War of 1898, the United States acquired substantial colonial possessions in the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean. This turn from anticolonial to imperial republic has puzzled stu- dents of American history ever since. Coming to terms with empire has been a difficult and sometimes tedious process. Two main issues still need further clarification: first, the connection between American continental expansion and overseas colonialism and, second, the relationship between American and European approaches to empire and colonialism. So far, historians have provided ambivalent an- swers to the first and paid little attention to the second issue. Recent studies arguing for continuities between continental and overseas expan- sion have explicitly emphasized the exceptional character of the Ameri- can empire; whereas studies placing the American approach to empire within an international discourse on colonialism have tended to minimize the national experience of continental expansion. This essay explores possible thematic links between the experience of continental expansion and insights derived from the analysis of other colonial powers and suggests that both dimensions were equally impor- tant to colonial state building in the American Philippines. Rather than viewing the acquisition of overseas territories as a new departure, Ameri- cans projected the experiences gathered in the conquest of the American West and the subsequent defeat of native Americans onto the islands in so many ways that the Indian analogy became a constant reference point for military leaders, administrators, and educators, as well as opponents of empire.
    [Show full text]
  • Downloads of Technical Information
    Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2018 Nuclear Spaces: Simulations of Nuclear Warfare in Film, by the Numbers, and on the Atomic Battlefield Donald J. Kinney Follow this and additional works at the DigiNole: FSU's Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected] FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES NUCLEAR SPACES: SIMULATIONS OF NUCLEAR WARFARE IN FILM, BY THE NUMBERS, AND ON THE ATOMIC BATTLEFIELD By DONALD J KINNEY A Dissertation submitted to the Department of History in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2018 Donald J. Kinney defended this dissertation on October 15, 2018. The members of the supervisory committee were: Ronald E. Doel Professor Directing Dissertation Joseph R. Hellweg University Representative Jonathan A. Grant Committee Member Kristine C. Harper Committee Member Guenter Kurt Piehler Committee Member The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members, and certifies that the dissertation has been approved in accordance with university requirements. ii For Morgan, Nala, Sebastian, Eliza, John, James, and Annette, who all took their turns on watch as I worked. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank the members of my committee, Kris Harper, Jonathan Grant, Kurt Piehler, and Joseph Hellweg. I would especially like to thank Ron Doel, without whom none of this would have been possible. It has been a very long road since that afternoon in Powell's City of Books, but Ron made certain that I did not despair. Thank you. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract..............................................................................................................................................................vii 1.
    [Show full text]
  • Our Brothers Across the Ocean?
    Our Brothers Across the Ocean? Unionist Diplomacy, the Lansdowne Foreign Office, and the Anglo-American 'Special Relationship', 1900-1905 BY Iestyn Michael Adams Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of PhD. The University of Leeds Department of History February 2002 The candidate confirms that the work submitted is his own and that appropriate credit has been given where reference has been made to the work of others. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS During the conception and preparation of this thesis, I have received valuable assistance from my postgraduate supervisor, Dr. Keith Wilson, who has offered me encouragement and guidance throughout the last four years. He clearly understood my goals and interests, and has frequently given me much needed advice. Without his help, needless to say, this book would not exist I am also indebted to the staff of the Public Record Office, the British Library and the Brotherton Library of the University of Leeds. I particularly wish to thank Robert Smith - the Curator of the as yet uncatalogued Lansdowne collection in the British Library - who gave me his time, and who suggested further research avenues. On a personal note, I gratefully acknowledge the support from friends and family, especially my parents and Colette Maher. My final words of thanks go Andrea Myers, Peter Myers and Richie Lane who, together, helped to provide accomodation during my frequent trips to London. 1 ABSTRACT This study is intended as a detailed exploration of British diplomacy with the United States in the first five years of the twentieth century, that is, the period during which the Marquis of Lansdowne presided at the Foreign Office.
    [Show full text]
  • Paper: Wardialing Brief
    Wardialing Brief Kingpin @Stake, Inc. 196 Broadway, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA. http://www.atstake.com E-mail: [email protected] Abstract. Wardialing consists of using a computer to dial a given set of telephone numbers with a modem. Each phone number that answers with modem handshake tones and is successfully connected to is stored in a log. By searching a range of phone numbers for computers, one can find entry points into unprotected systems and backdoors into seemingly secure systems. This brief introduces the wardialing concept, examines concerns with today's network setups, and lists free and commercial software products, whitepapers, news reports, and Internet resources. Keywords: wardialing, telephony, security, modem 1 Introduction to Wardialing Wardialing, or scanning, has been a common activity in the computer underground and computer serucity industry for decades. Hollywood made wardialing popular with the 1983 movie, WarGames, in which a teenager searching for a videogame company ultimately uncovers a government nuclear war warning system [1]. Seventeen years after the mainstream was made aware of wardialing activity, the problem of unprotected dial-up systems still exists in the majority of corporations. The act of wardialing is extremely simple – a host computer dials a given range of telephone numbers using a modem. Every telephone number that answers with a modem and successfully connects to the host is stored in a log. At the conclusion of the scan, the log is reviewed and the phone numbers are individually dialed with a computer. The user then attempts to identify the systems, and, depending on the goals of the wardial, attempts system access.
    [Show full text]
  • The American Hospital Ship Maine And
    UNDER TWO FLAGS: RAPPROCHEMENT AND THE AMERICAN HOSPITAL SHIP MAINE A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE TEXAS WOMAN’S UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF HISTORY AND GOVERNMENT COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES BY AUBRI E. THURMOND, B.A. DENTON, TEXAS DECEMBER 2014 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS There are many people I would like to thank for their support and assistance as I worked on this research project. First, I would like to thank the librarians in the Manuscript Division at the Library of Congress who made my time there both fruitful and memorable. Also, I would like to thank Laura Schapira, Historian of the American Women’s Club of London. The material you discovered and sent to me from across the Atlantic was essential to my work and I appreciate your willingness to help me. I would like to thank Katharine Thomson, Gemma Cook, and Sophie Bridges of the Churchill Archives Centre in Cambridge for your assistance in locating and accessing documents. I would like to acknowledge the support and encouragement of faculty members in the History and Government Department at Texas Woman’s University. I have enjoyed my time here immensely. I would like to thank Dr. Paul Travis for showing me that literature can reflect historical truths and for guiding me so well through this project. I am grateful for your constant encouragement and many, much needed “pep talks.” I would like to thank Dr. Jacob Blosser for challenging me in my approach to research and for giving me my first teaching opportunity.
    [Show full text]
  • Wargames Ovvero: Come Applicare La Logica Del Paradosso E Vincere Una Guerra Impossibile
    CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by Institutional Research Information System University of Turin WarGames Ovvero: come applicare la logica del paradosso e vincere una guerra impossibile “WarGames” è un film del 1983, noto in italiano anche con il sottotitolo di “Giochi di guerra”. Al di là della scarsa fantasia mostrata nella traduzione, non si può certo negare che tanto i “giochi” quanto la “guerra” siano i due elementi centrali attorno ai quali ruota l‟intera vicenda narrata nella pellicola. Il film, nonostante la sua scorrevolezza, è generalmente corretto nel presentare elementi di carattere tecnico e militare – se si eccettua qualche piccolo errore1 – e fornisce validi spunti degni di approfondimento. L‟intento di questo breve saggio consiste nell‟evidenziare alcuni aspetti che si pongono in relazione diretta con la realtà strategica della Guerra fredda, vista soprattutto dal lato statunitense. A questo verranno aggiunte anche alcune osservazioni su caratteristiche emergenti, che solo oggi hanno acquisito il vigore e la visibilità che negli anni ‟80 erano ancora in massima parte ipotetici, ma relativamente alle quali la pellicola fornisce già qualche intuizione. Ma al di là e – oserei dire – al di sopra di tutto questo, l‟elemento probabilmente più interessante consiste nella logica del paradosso che permea il film, e che di per se stessa costituisce il tassello fondante del confronto nucleare dell‟epoca bipolare. Il paradosso è stato presentato, in via più generale, come una caratteristica chiave sottesa ad una corretta concezione strategica2, e tale enfasi diviene ancora più evidente in un contesto quale quello atomico. Un ottimo pregio di “WarGames” è il cogliere questo spirito, e proprio in omaggio a tale virtù, non sottrarremo l‟applicazione della medesima logica al film stesso, ottenendone così spesso un ribaltamento di prospettiva che forse può essere utile per fare un po‟ di luce nel contesto strategico-militare di quel periodo.
    [Show full text]
  • History of Wargames
    History of Wargames: Toward a History Based Doctrine for Wargaming as of 6 Jan 2000 By Matthew Caffrey Send comments to [email protected] - A Congressman with a national reputation as a defense expert opposes the President's plan for military action because of the casualty levels predicted by war games. - One weapons program is canceled and another accelerated, both largely due to the results of war games. - An air component commander convinces an area CinC to change the deployment plan of a major regional plan due to problems anticipated through a war game. Our expectations of the future shape that future. Those who concern themselves with the future of warfare develop their expectations in many ways, from the study of history to the building of complex mathematical models, to the integration of both these approaches using the medium of wargaming. Without question war games shape those expectations, hence they help shape the future. Ever more powerful computers appear to promise ever better war games. Yet is the Emperor really wearing clothes? Or to use a more contemporary expression, isn't the validity of "garbage in garbage out" independent of computing power? Will war games lead or mislead us in the future? As several historians have observed, "I know of no guide to the future but the past." For almost 200 years modern war games have been providing life saving insights and fatal mirages. If these different outcomes were random there would little use in studying that history. However, as the Caffrey Cycle illustrates, history provides the raw material for anticipating cause and effect.
    [Show full text]
  • Ready Player One by Ernest Cline
    Ready Player One by Ernest Cline Chapter 1 Everyone my age remembers where they were and what they were doing when they first heard about the contest. I was sitting in my hideout watching cartoons when the news bulletin broke in on my video feed, announcing that James Halliday had died during the night. I’d heard of Halliday, of course. Everyone had. He was the videogame designer responsible for creating the OASIS, a massively multiplayer online game that had gradually evolved into the globally networked virtual reality most of humanity now used on a daily basis. The unprecedented success of the OASIS had made Halliday one of the wealthiest people in the world. At first, I couldn’t understand why the media was making such a big deal of the billionaire’s death. After all, the people of Planet Earth had other concerns. The ongoing energy crisis. Catastrophic climate change. Widespread famine, poverty, and disease. Half a dozen wars. You know: “dogs and cats living together … mass hysteria!” Normally, the newsfeeds didn’t interrupt everyone’s interactive sitcoms and soap operas unless something really major had happened. Like the outbreak of some new killer virus, or another major city vanishing in a mushroom cloud. Big stuff like that. As famous as he was, Halliday’s death should have warranted only a brief segment on the evening news, so the unwashed masses could shake their heads in envy when the newscasters announced the obscenely large amount of money that would be doled out to the rich man’s heirs. 2 But that was the rub.
    [Show full text]