China's World: Philippines Looks to Revive U.S. Naval Base Manila Looks to Subic Bay to Counter Chinese Moves in Region

China's World: Philippines Looks to Revive U.S. Naval Base Manila Looks to Subic Bay to Counter Chinese Moves in Region SUBIC BAY, Philippines—In 1991, after the Philippine Senate voted to close Subic Naval Base—then the largest American overseas military facility—an emotional Sen. Agapito Aquino summed up the popular mood. It was, he said, "the dawn of our nation's birth." Filipino spectators watched the USS Belleau Wood leave Cubi Point as it carried the last group of U.S. marines from Subic Bay Naval Base to Okinawa in November 1992. Tossing out the Americans from Subic and nearby Clark Air Base, he added, had ended the country's "crippling dependence" on its former colonial overlord. Now, the Philippines wants American forces back in Subic to counter Chinese moves off the Philippine coast. Just west of Subic, Chinese ships have fenced off the Scarborough Shoal, one of the world's richest fishing grounds, which falls within the Philippines's 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone. This month, Manila also produced evidence that suggested China is preparing to build permanent structures on Scarborough, as it has done on other rocky outcrops in the South China Sea. To the south, Chinese paramilitary vessels have chased away oil survey ships along the gas-rich Reed Bank, also claimed by Manila. China has offered joint exploration for oil and gas off the Philippines, and denies it's getting ready to build structures on Scarborough. But the Philippines feels bullied—and defenseless. Fear of China is trumping nationalism. And negotiations on bringing U.S. forces back to Subic, and other spots around the Philippines, are under way. As a practical matter, the Americans could come back to Subic tomorrow. The Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority, which now runs Subic as a free port, has preserved the corrugated steel- roofed quonset huts that once housed American enlisted personnel. The officers' homes—sturdy, breeze block structures with balcony views over the harbor—are available for rent. Some of them have been refurbished by Korean businessmen and other investors in the area's shipbuilding and electronics industries. The Subic airport has plenty of spare capacity. Its runway, long enough for bombers to rumble down, now handles mainly corporate jets and recreational aircraft. The piers where American aircraft carriers once tied up are largely empty, although a nearby boat club is filled with luxury yachts owned by Hong Kong millionaires who jet in for weekends. But bringing back the once-spurned Yanks won't be so simple. The reasons illustrate the way that China's rapid rise as a regional military power—one that now possesses fleets of modern warships, nuclear-powered submarines, ballistic missiles and stealth fighters—has reshaped the calculus for Pentagon planners in Asia since that vote to eject the American forces. For a start, the Philippines itself would have to reverse a constitutional ban on allowing a foreign power to establish a permanent military base. But assuming that was possible, America still wouldn't be interested. Bases are potential sitting ducks for Chinese missiles. Plus, they are expensive. At a time of budget cuts, it's far cheaper to sign a treaty with friendly countries guaranteeing access for U.S. forces than to pay rent. In military-speak, America wants "places not bases." As important, U.S. military moves in Asia now must be weighed against the risk of provoking China at a time when tensions over territorial claims in the South China Sea are running high. China's claims to almost the entire stretch of water, along with its islets, reefs and sandbanks, are contested not just by the Philippines but also Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan. Washington doesn't take a position on the sovereignty claims, but the danger is that it could get caught up in any hostilities, dragging the U.S. military into direct conflict with nuclear-armed China. Nor do Asian countries want to be forced to take sides between China and the U.S. The U.S. is cautious about offending China for other reasons, too. China already feels encircled by a network of U.S. military alliances stretching from Japan to Australia. As numerous analysts have pointed out, China isn't the Soviet Union. It may be pushing back against U.S. military hegemony in Asia, but unlike the Soviet Union it's also an economic partner—America's biggest creditor and a key investment destination for U.S. auto companies, retailers and plane makers. So what do the Philippines and the U.S. have to talk about? Roberto Garcia, the chairman of the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority, says one proposal is to place a Philippine Air Force fighter wing at the airport, providing a base that could be used by the U.S. Air Force. Subic already hosts Philippine naval vessels, and U.S. Navy ships have restricted access. That access will likely be expanded. Washington also has provided two 1960s-vintage decommissioned U.S. Coast Guard cutters that use Subic as their home base. They are hardly state of the art—"hand-me-downs," grumbles Aquilino "Nene" Pimentel, the former president of the Philippine Senate—but the Gregorio del Pinar and the Ramon Alcaraz are now the flagships of the Philippine Navy, alongside World War II-era patrol boats. The two countries have a mutual defense treaty, and U.S. forces are helping the Philippines defeat a Muslim insurgency in the southern island of Mindanao. But the go-go days of Subic as a bustling base seem destined for the mists of Cold War history, regardless of what agreements the Philippines and the U.S. reach in their current talks. Mitch Schranz, a now-retired U.S. military chaplain who was one of the last Americans to leave Subic, and then moved back to raise a family with his Filipina wife, recalls the raucous celebrations when aircraft carrier battle groups used to sail in after months at sea, disgorging several thousand sailors into the all-night honky-tonk bars of nearby Olongapo. "It was like the Fourth of July, New Year's Eve and Mardi Gras all rolled into one," he says. For some of the romantic liaisons born from those wild nights, Subic ran a Bride School that tutored Filipinas in the ways of American domestic life, including how to use a pop-up toaster, he recalls. The Americans employed as many as 30,000 locals, including skilled welders and pipe fitters. High-paid jobs were handed down from father to son. Elite workers formed their own bowling leagues on base. When Subic closed "there was a collective depression," said Mr. Schranz. "After 100 years— poof—the place was gone" .

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