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BHP Billiton Ltd BHP [NYSE] | QQQQ ? BHP Billiton Ltd BHP [NYSE] | QQQQ TM Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Morningstar Credit Rating Industry 80.49 USD 100.00 USD 70.00 USD 135.00 USD Medium Narrow . Industrial Metals & Minerals BHP's Record Fiscal 2011 Earnings In Line industry-specific reasons--oil in part because of the drilling moratorium in the United States and coal the weather. Yet industrywide cost pressures, in conjunction with persistent supply-side constraints, are a key plank to by Mark Taylor Analyst Note Aug. 29, 2011 commodity price support. Net operating cash flow Stock Analyst ballooned 83% to $30.3 billion, higher than anticipated. Of Analysts covering this company do not We are increasing our fair value estimate for BHP Billiton own its stock. by 5%, to $50 per share ($100 per ADR) and maintain our course unit costs lag commodity rises, a cause for joy on the way up but amplified pain on the way down. We Pricing data through September 08, 2011. positive stance. Very strong cash flows leave the balance Rating updated as of sheet in better shape than anticipated. Our fiscal 2012 anticipate unit costs to stabilize somewhat in fiscal 2012 September 08, 2011. earnings forecast is $5.25 per share. That 33% increase in in lagged sympathy with pricing. Currency amounts expressed with "$" earnings versus fiscal 2011 reflects substantial growth in are in U.S. dollars (USD) unless Net debt grew 76% off a very low base to $5.8 billion, otherwise denoted. Western Australia iron ore volume on expansion plans and coking coal volume recovering from fiscal 2011's bad though leverage is still paltry at 10%. This changes in the Stock Price weather. We also anticipate improved performance from second half of 2012 with the $15 billion acquisition of 96.0 Petrohawk Energy. But even then leverage will remain at 86.0 aluminum and nickel, veritable laggards in fiscal 2011. We sub-30% levels and diminish rapidly with very strong cash 76.0 then expect earnings to level off on a cooling in flows. BHP spent $11.6 billion in fiscal 2011 on capital 66.0 commodities price growth from current stratospheric expenditure projects, with the largest 30% share going to 56.0 levels and the impact of the mineral resources rent tax in Australia. We forecast earnings of $4.75 per share in iron ore, followed by oil, copper, aluminum, and coal. 46.0 fiscal 2013. Group returns on invested capital increased from 20% to 29%, in line with the prior high in fiscal 2008. BHP is 36.0 In line with expectations, BHP reported record underlying enjoying unparalleled returns on capital invested at far 07 08 09 10 11 fiscal 2011 earnings up 74% to $21.7 billion. That's 40% lower prices than present--a key differentiator to other above the previous highest mark of $15.4 billion set in resource groups that began substantially investing fiscal 2008. The group earnings before interest and tax post-boom. margin improved from 36% to a record 43% courtesy of higher commodity prices, only partially offset by adverse BHP stamped its optimistic outlook with a 22% rebasing exchange rate movements. Key in order of importance of the full-year dividend to $1.01 per share (the final of were iron ore up 96% to $144 per tonne, copper up 28% $0.55 was ahead of our $0.52 forecast), "confident in the to $3.90 per pound, oil up 18% to $90 per barrel, and long-term outlook for [its] core commodity markets." There coking coal up 63% to $238.50 per tonne. Volume effects, was no dividend increase in Australian dollar terms, including the impact of weather on East Australia coal though, with the strong currency holding the payout to exports, pale in comparison. Underlying earnings per share AUD 0.98 per share. jumped 76% to $3.94, outpacing gross profit courtesy of $10 billion in share buybacks. These reduced shares on A protracted recovery remains BHP's base case for the issue by 4%. The headline fiscal 2011 profit grew 86% to developed world, with the potential for "a coordinated $23.6 billion, including $2 billion pertaining mostly to policy response to engender confidence and ease the reversal of deferred tax liabilities, noncash. volatility that has been the dominant theme of recent years." With respect to the important growth economies of Cost pressures are evident, though outside of oil are in China and India, BHP cautioned that growth in fixed-asset line with expectations, given commodities inflation. Most investment in China remains resilient and is yet to fully segments experienced 35%-40% rises in unit costs, reflect recent monetary policy tightening. though some like oil and coal were higher for BHP Billiton Ltd BHP [NYSE] | QQQQ TM Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Morningstar Credit Rating Industry 80.49 USD 100.00 USD 70.00 USD 135.00 USD Medium Narrow . Industrial Metals & Minerals China's rise from economic obscurity has sustained Close Competitors Currency(Mil) Market Cap TTM Sales Oper Income Net Income commodity price growth into the 21st century. Despite BHP Billiton Ltd USD 214,421 62,354 26,922 17,111 now accounting for the lion's share of global consumption Vale S.A. USD 144,285 57,233 30,719 25,233 of many commodity staples, its per capita use remains Rio Tinto PLC USD 114,231 61,088 22,727 16,066 well below that of industrialized nations--the difference Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold USD 41,963 22,278 11,289 5,594 being China's vast population. India's near-equivalent Morningstar data as of September 08, 2011. numbers portend a lagged reinvigoration of commodity This doesn't appear a major shift in BHP rhetoric; the price support. The decade milestone of growth need not company has been dovish on the near term for some spell the end of the current boom. considerable years while remaining confident in a strong long term based on ongoing urbanization in the developing Positioned in the center of this enviable tailwind, BHP is world. Evidence suggests it has considerably the world's largest publicly traded mining conglomerate, underrepresented the near-term potential in recent with the financial wherewithal to weather the years--why go out on a limb? boom-and-bust cycles of the volatile commodity markets. Geographic and product diversification give BHP more BHP anticipates robust commodities demand in both the stable cash flows and lower operating risk than most of its short and medium term, supported by intensive emerging mining peers. Most revenue comes from the relative safe economic growth--and if stimulatory policy is enacted, havens of Australia/New Zealand, North America, and then more so. With respect to steelmaking raw materials, Europe. the company does anticipate growth in demand, particularly in China, to slow in the longer term to more This narrow-moat company has several key advantages. It sustainable levels. But the fundamentals even for these produces a range of commodities from oil and gas to commodities remain compelling, given a constrained diamonds, and it is a major producer of iron ore, copper, supply-side response and rising capital costs. nickel, thermal coal, metallurgical coal, and manganese. It also offers a full suite of conventional energy products. The company can benefit from a rally in any of its product Thesis Aug. 29, 2011 lines. Finally, BHP is a major Australian commodity After 30 years of decline, the world is again experiencing producer in close proximity to the Asian markets. a sustained increase in commodity prices. The last long-cycle uptrend, born at the end of the Great A geographically diversified customer base allows BHP to Depression, was driven by the rebuilding of Europe after benefit from economic growth and development in any the wars and later on the rise of Japan to economic part of the world. When all major world economies are powerhouse status. The oil shocks of the 1970s were an growing strongly, BHP's revenue and profits can benefit effective death knell. The current rise, forged on the significantly. With demand for most of its products in an industrialization and urbanization of the world's most upswing--because of the growing Asian economies and populous country, began early in the final decade of the worldwide economic expansion--BHP reported stellar 20th century, though the seeds were probably sown results in fiscal 2005-08. Fiscal 2009 softened with the considerably earlier. global financial crisis, but the company's diversified earnings stream damped the overall volatility associated © 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. ® The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely. This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. ß BHP Billiton Ltd BHP [NYSE] | QQQQ TM Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Morningstar Credit Rating Industry 80.49 USD 100.00 USD 70.00 USD 135.00 USD Medium Narrow . Industrial Metals & Minerals with the downturn. Fiscal 2010 delivered improved profits, billion or 24% and copper at $67.5 billion or 20%. Of and 2011 stands to be another record result. course if you bundle iron ore in with the carbon steel materials group's metallurgical coal and manganese, it The good times have fortified the balance sheet.
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