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Predictive Modeling Upper Delaware Valley Practices in Regional Perspective

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Predictive Modeling Upper Delaware Valley Practices in Regional Perspective Predictive Modeling Upper Delaware Valley Practices IN REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE by R. Michael Stewart, Ph.D. Prepared for: The New Jersey Historic Preservation Office Trenton, New Jersey March 2019 State of New Jersey Governor Philip D. Murphy Lt. Governor Sheila Oliver Department of Environmental Protection Catherine R. McCabe, Commissioner Natural and Historic Resources Group Historic Preservation Office Mail Code 501-04B P.O. Box 420 Trenton, New Jersey 08625-0420 Cover photograph courtesy of Dewberry Engineering, Parsippany, New Jersey. This material was produced with assistance from the Historic Preservation Fund, administered by the National Park Service, Department of the Interior Any opinions findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of the Interior. PREDICTIVE MODELING UPPER DELAWARE VALLEY PRACTICES IN REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE by R. Michael Stewart Prepared for: The New Jersey Historic Preservation Office Trenton, New Jersey March 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION PAGE I. Introduction 1 II. Background: Regional 8 A. Early Trends in the Middle Atlantic Region 8 B. Early Trends in the Delaware Valley and New Jersey 12 C. Summary of Early Trends 17 D. Subsequent Practices in the Middle Atlantic Region 18 E. Subsequent Practices in the Delaware Valley and New Jersey 34 F. Summary of Subsequent Practices 47 G. Guidance of State Historic Preservation Offices 48 III. Modeling in the Upper Delaware Valley 51 A. Ahistorical Models 51 B. Additional Comments Regarding Environmental and Cultural Variables 72 C. Period-Specific Observations 75 D. Summary 81 IV. Discussion and Recommendations 85 A. Survey Goals, Field Methods, Site Size and Significance 85 B. Survey Goals, Field Methods, Site Size and Significance – Recommendations 92 C. Revisiting Select Variables, Environmental and Cultural 94 1. Environmental 94 2. Cultural 105 D. Revisiting Select Variables, Environmental and Cultural – Recommendations 109 E. Conclusion: Approaches in Modeling 113 V. Acknowledgments 118 VI. References Cited 119 LIST OF FIGURES 1. Upper Delaware Valley Project Area Showing Relevant Counties of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York 3 2. Physiography and Elevations in the Delaware River Basin 4 3. Overview of Assessed Site Sensitivity for Modeling Regions 7-10 in Pennsylvania 42 4. Topographic Cross-Sections of the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area, Pennsylvania and New Jersey 58 5. Binford’s Leapfrog Pattern of Residential Bases and Foraging Radii 74 6. Least Cost Pathways from the West Athens Hill Source Area for Normanskill Chert to the Poirier Paleoindian Site in the Upper Delaware Valley 79 7. Hydrography and Topography of Warren County, New Jersey 97 8. Variation in the Hydrography of Two Areas of Roughly Equal Size in Warren and Sussex Counties, New Jersey 98 9. Ridge and Valley and Highlands Natural Corridors Linking the Delaware and Hudson River Valleys 101 10. Conjectured Major Historic Indian Trails of New Jersey Relevant to the Project Area 106 PAGE 11. Historic Indian Paths in Pennsylvania Relevant to the Project Area 107 12. Historic Indian Paths in Pennsylvania Relevant to the Project Area 108 13. Modern Mast Trees Per Soil Type, West Branch Basin of the Delaware River 111 LIST OF TABLES 1. Variables Highlighted in a Sample of Early Settlement and Locational Models for the Middle Atlantic Region 14 2. Topographic Settings Associated with the Greatest Percentage of Sites for Physiographic Zones in Pennsylvania. 20 3. Environmental Variables Employed in Models Reviewed for Pennsylvania Statewide Predictive Model Development 24 4. Breakdown of Environmental Divisions Used in the Development of Statewide Predictive Models for Pennsylvania 25 5. Average Distance to Stream Confluence for Select Time Periods and Physiographic Zones, Pennsylvania 32 6. Average Stream Order of the Nearest Confluence to Sites by Physiographic Zone and Time Period, Pennsylvania 32 7. Relation of Sites to Streams and Stream Confluences in the Susquehanna, Potomac, and Delaware River Basins, Pennsylvania 33 8. Relation of Sites to Streams and Stream Confluences in the Upper Juniata River Basin, Pennsylvania 33 9. Variables Employed in Pine Barrens Modeling Project, New Jersey 36 10. Variables Used in Assessing Locations of Sites and Control Points Ocean County, New Jersey 37 11. Relation of a Sample of Sites to Surface Water Ocean County, New Jersey 38 12. Variable Features, Ranges/States, and Weighted Values, Midpeninsular Drainage Divide, Coastal Delaware 40 13. Variable Features, Ranges/States, and Weighted Values Mid Drainage Zone, Coastal Delaware 40 14. Proximity of Sites to Water in the Outer Coastal Plain of New Jersey 45 15. Testing Methodology Matrix for Use in Archaeological Surveys Completed in Pennsylvania 49 16. Variable Weights in the Bailey and Dekin Predictive Model for the Upper Delaware National Scenic And Recreational River 53 17. Site Sensitivity Rankings and Site Distributions for the Callicoon and Damascus 7.5’ USGS Quadrangles 53 18. Kvamme Gain Values for Site Sensitivity Rankings in the Bailey and Dekin Model for the Upper Delaware National Scenic And Recreational River 53 19. Distribution of Sites By Environmental Zone in the Upper Susquehanna Valley, New York 55 20. Site Settings on the Valley Floors of the Upper Susquehanna Valley, New York 56 PAGE 21. Site Settings in the Valley Walls Environmental Zone of the Upper Susquehanna Valley, New York 56 22. Site Settings in the Uplands of the Upper Susquehanna Valley, New York 56 23. Settings of 1991-92 Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area Transect Survey Sites and Other Sites in a Regional Sample 58 24. Relation of Sites to Surface Water in a Sample From Monroe and Pike Counties, Pennsylvania and Warren and Sussex Counties, New Jersey 59 25. Incremental Distances to Surface Water for a Sample of Sites From Monroe and Pike Counties, Pennsylvania and Warren and Sussex Counties, New Jersey 59 26. Acreage Equivalent of Environmental Zones Tested in the Riegel et al 1994 Survey of the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area 61 27. Sampling of Environmental Settings and Results of the Riegel et al 1994 Survey of the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area 61 28. Relation of Sites to Surface Water for Monroe, Northampton and Pike Counties, Pennsylvania and Warren and Sussex Counties, New Jersey 62 29. Incremental Distances to Surface Water for Sites in Monroe, Northampton and Pike Counties, Pennsylvania and Warren and Sussex Counties, New Jersey 62 30. Site and Landform Associations in Monroe, Northampton and Pike Counties, Pennsylvania and Warren and Sussex Counties, New Jersey 62 31. Horizontal Distance to Water in the Pocono Uplands Model 64 32. Pocono Uplands Model: High Probability Variables Revised 64 33. Surface Water Associations for Sites in Three Watersheds, Northampton and Monroe Counties, Pennsylvania 66 34. Landforms Associated With Sites in the West Branch Delaware Sub-Basin, Pennsylvania 69 35. Sites and Distance to Surface Water in the West Branch Delaware Sub-Basin, Pennsylvania 69 36. Landforms Associated With Sites in the Marshalls, Brodhead, Pocono, and McMichaels Creeks Watershed, Pennsylvania 70 37. Distance of Sites to Surface Water in the Marshalls, Brodhead, Pocono, and McMichaels Creeks Watershed, Pennsylvania 71 38. Predictive Criteria in the Brewer et al (2014) Model, Monroe County, Pennsylvania 71 39. Surface Water Associations of Caves and Rockshelters Investigated by Max Schrabisch 72 40. Aspect/Exposure of Caves and Rockshelters Investigated by Max Schrabisch 73 41. Landform and Cultural Component Associations Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area 76 42. Nearest Water and Cultural Component Associations Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area 77 43. Nearest Stream Confluence and Cultural Component Associations Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area 77 44. Closest Distance Between Pathways and Non-Destination Paleoindian Sites with Normanskill Chert Artifacts 78 PAGE 45. Distance of Orient Sites in Floodplain/Terrace Settings to Secondary Streams in the Upper Delaware Valley of Pennsylvania 80 46. Examples of Cultural Historical Affiliations and Site Settings on the Valley Floor of the Upper Susquehanna River, New York 82 47. Examples of Small Sites in the Upper Delaware Valley Project Area 87 48. Distance of Sites to Nearest Water, Warren and Sussex Counties, New Jersey 95 49. Examples of Toolstone Sources in the Upper Delaware Valley 100 50. Examples of Periods of Moisture Stress Potentially Impacting Paleoenvironments in the Region 112 I. INTRODUCTION It is rare that archaeologists can examine 100% of anything in the field and this is especially true of reconnaissance surveys of extensive project or geographic areas. Sampling and the use of models that predict potential site locations or sensitive environmental zones typically are employed in these situations. In what follows I examine the use of predictive models for Native American sites in the Delaware Valley focusing on their use in the upper portions of the drainage basin. The effort is part of an alternative mitigation project supported by the New Jersey Historic Preservation Office. The overarching goal of the mitigation is to craft reports and essays that update and synthesize aspects of archaeological practice and the record of Pre-Contact and Contact Native American life in the Upper Delaware Valley, and understand them in the context of broader regional
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