ANNUAL PLAN 2009-10 PLANNING COMMISISON PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT DIVISION GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN JUNE, 2009 CONTENTS Page Foreword Executive Summary i Part – I Macroeconomic Framework 1 Chapter 1. Growth, Investment and Savings 3 2. Balance of Payments 15 3. Fiscal and Monetary Developments 27 4. Public Sector Development Program 35 Part – II Achieving Millennium Development Goals 45 5. Poverty Reduction and Human Development 47 Part – III Main Features of Sectoral Programs 59 6. Agriculture Development 61 7. Water Resources Development 77 8. Energy Security 85 9. Manufacturing and Minerals 97 10. Transport and Communication 103 11. Physical Planning and Housing 109 12. Mass Media, Culture, Sports, Tourism and Youth 117 13. Education for Knowledge Society 123 13.1 School and College Education 123 13.2 Higher Education 126 13.3 Science and Technology 133 14. Information and Communication Technologies 139 14.1 Information Technology 139 14.2 Telecommunications 147 15. Health and Nutrition 151 15.1 Health 151 15.2 Nutrition 156 16. Population and Development 161 17. Employment 165 18. Women Empowerment and Social Welfare 171 19. Rural Development, Special Areas and Drought Recovery Program 179 19.1 Rural Development 179 19.2 Drought Recovery Assistance Program 182 19.3 Special Areas 184 20. Environment and Sustainable Development 191 21. Good Governance 195 21.1 Reforms Program 195 21.2 Monitoring and Evaluation 198 FOREWORD The National Economic Council (NEC) in its meeting held on 4th June, 2009 under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister, reviewed the performance of economy during 2008-09 and approved the Annual Plan 2009-10. The economic growth in Pakistan has slowed down. The GDP has declined to 2% in 2008-09 against the target of 5.5% and 4.01% achieved in 2007-08. Agriculture sector surpassed the target registering the growth rate of 4.7%, whereas, poor performance of large scale manufacturing and construction has pulled down the growth rate. Fiscal and current account balances which worsened sharply during 2007-08, have started showing sign of improvement as a result of stabilization policies. Foreign reserves which fell largely because of soaring oil prices in 2008-09 have now increased to a comfortable level of US$ 12.2 billion. The headline inflation remained high during 2008-09 on the back of spiraling food and energy prices and persistence of inflationary expectations. A major shift in government policy was to adopt people centric development policies to stabilize and grow with human face. Direct income support measures including Benazir Income Support Program were initiated for poor and vulnerable. To make the people employable greater emphasis has been placed on provision of education, health and skill development. Pro-agriculture stance to improve the terms of trade for agriculture was taken. Support price of wheat was increased from Rs 625 to Rs 950 per 40 kg to boost production and ensure food security. Priority is accorded to provide basic necessities to the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). The strategic thrust of the Annual Plan 2009-10 is: (i) ensure economic recovery consistent with stabilization; (ii) maintain momentum of agriculture growth together with support policies for revival of industries; (iii) address critical infrastructure gaps in water, power and transport for enhancing competitiveness; (iv) achieve Millennium Development Goals and reduce poverty through a comprehensive social protection system with an exit strategy; (v) facilitate balanced development in the country by reducing regional disparities; and (vi) rehabilitation and reconstruction of conflict affected areas. The Annual Plan 2009-10 aims at GDP growth rate of 3.3%. This is to be contributed by sectoral growth rates of agriculture (3.8%), manufacturing (1.8%) and that of services sector (3.9%). The level of saving and investment would be enhanced and inflation to be reduced to single digit by perusing tight monetary and prudent policies. In spite of financial constraints, the size of the PSDP 2009-10 at Rs 621 billion (4.2% of GDP) has been kept at a much higher level than last year. This will pull up economic growth and create job opportunities. I would like to commend the efforts of the staff of the Planning Commission for their professional contribution to prepare this valuable document. Sardar Aseff Ahmad Ali Deputy Chairman/Federal Minister Islamabad 13th June, 2009 Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Overview of Economy Review for 2008-09 Pakistan’s economic performance in 2008-09 may be seen against the policy objectives of the government, international developments and domestic constraints. Faced with an untenable fiscal and balance of payment situation and rapidly declining foreign exchange reserves, mainly due to an unprecedented increase in oil prices in the first half of 2008, the government took decisive action to restore macroeconomic stability. This entailed curtailing domestic demand through contractionary fiscal and monetary policy and reducing planned public sector development expenditures. The trade-off between growth and restoring macroeconomic stability turned out to be high. The economy during 2008-09 registered a growth of 2% against the target of 5.5% and 4.1% achieved last year. The decline in growth rate has largely come from the poor performance of the industrial sector. Depressed production in large scale manufacturing and construction sector was mainly responsible for the decline. Agriculture: Agriculture has performed well. Agriculture grew by 4.7% surpassing the target of 3.5%. The major crops exhibited high growth rate are: Rice (25%), Cotton (3.5%), Wheat (11.7%), and Gram (60.1%). However, the production of Sugarcane showed a decline of 21.7%. This is mainly due to the shortage of irrigation water. In the livestock sector growth can be seen for Milk (3.2%), Meat (4.2%), Wool (1.2%), Hides (3.4%) and Skins (2.3%). Industry: Industry has shown a negative growth rate of 3.6% against the target of 6%. The negative growth is mainly contributed by the poor performance of the large scale manufacturing (-7.7%) as well as of construction (-10.8%). Manufacturing production fell on the face of high inflation, low demand and high cost of borrowing amid tight monetary policy. Borrowing by the private sector reduced sharply. Services: The growth of services sector has been recorded at 3.6% against the target of 6.1%. On account of a sharp slowing down of manufacturing and imports, the wholesale and retail trade suffered a setback and grew by a rate well below its target of 5.4%. Finance and insurance with a negative growth rate of 1.2% also pulled down the growth of this sector. Saving and Investment: The total investment as a ratio of GDP would be 19.7% against the target of 21.5% and actual realization of 22% last year. Public as well as private sectors investment also declined. Similar trends have also been observed in case of FDI and portfolio investment. Steep decline happened to be in portfolio investment with massive outflow. Fall in FDI from US$ 5.4 billion 2007-08 to around US$ 3.5 billion has also contributed to low level of investment experienced in 2008-09. The national savings as ratio of GDP remained at 14.3% against 13.4% achieved in 2007-08. Fiscal Developments: The consolidated Budget for the year 2008-09 had envisaged Government expenditure at Rs 2,394 billion against the revenue of Rs 1809 billion. The fiscal deficit accordingly was envisaged at Rs 582 billion, 4.7% of GDP which was later revised down to 4.3% of GDP. To achieve this target the Government has eliminated subsidy on petroleum products and is phasing out electricity subsidy, Annual Plan 2009-10 i Executive Summary together with rationalizing public sector expenditures. The trend of revenue collection by FBR shows that due to slowdown in economic activity and imports, there is a possibility of shortfall. Accordingly the overall fiscal deficit may exceed the target marginally. Monetary Developments: Tight monetary policy has been pursued to stabilize economy. The money supply during July 1, 2008 to May 23, 2009, expanded by 5.5% against 9.1% during the corresponding period last year. The modest expansion is due to contraction in the Net Foreign Assets (NFA) and low growth in Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of the banking sector owing to decline in credit to private sector. The policy rate was raised twice in July and November, 2008 to 13% and 15% respectively to contain inflation and to ensure success of stabilization efforts. With the economy moving towards regaining macroeconomic stability, policy rate was lowered by 100 basic points to 14% from 15% in April, 2009. Inflation: Headline inflation was targeted at 11% for 2008-09 against 12% experienced last year. The inflation increased to 22.4% during July-April, 2008-09 against an increase of 10.3% during the corresponding period last year. Spiraling food and energy prices and significant depreciation of rupee are the main causes of this hike in inflation. The higher prices of education, health, house rent and transportation have also contributed to this increase. On the other hand core inflation during the same period, also remained high at 17.8%. The headline inflation is likely to remain very high around 20% during 2008-09. It has not declined as anticipated because desired impact of tight monetary policies has been neutralized by huge government borrowing to finance fiscal deficit and persistence of inflationary expectations. Balance of Payments: The current account deficit is expected to be US$ 9 billion (5.4% of GDP), significantly lower to the Annual Plan target of US$ 12.7 billion (7.2% of GDP) and US$ 14.2 billion (8.6% of GDP) recorded in 2007-08. This improvement has been due to reduction in trade deficit (US$ 12.1 billion against the target of US$ 14.3 billion) and robust increase in worker remittances estimated at US$ 7.5 billion.