STATE OF OREGON DEPARTMENT OF GEOLOGY AND MINERAL INDUSTRIES Tsunami Inundation Map Coos-05 www.OregonGeology.org Tsunami Inundation Maps for Coos Bay - North Bend, Larry Givens, Governing Board Chair Coos County, Oregon Vicki S. McConnell, Director and State Geologist Distant Source (Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone) Tsunami Inundation Map Don W.T. Lewis, Assistant Director Plate 2 Rachel R. Lyles Smith, Project Operations Manager Coos Bay - North Bend, Oregon Ian P. Madin, Chief Scientist 2012

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Legend Introduction Earthquake Ring of Fire Coos Bay Area Buildings within Tsunami Inundation Zone Maximum Wave Elevation Profile A-A': Barview Tsunami Inundation Map Index Tsunami Wave Height through Time for Simulated Gauge Stations Earthquake Size Slip / Deformation Magnitude The Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) has earthquake. The selected source location on the Aleutian chain of islands also 01 02 been identifying and mapping the tsunami inundation hazard along the shows higher energy directed toward the Oregon coast than other Alaskan Alaska M9.2 (1964) Vertical seafloor deformation ~9.2 03 Oregon coast since 1994. In Oregon, DOGAMI manages the National Tsunami source locations. For these reasons the hypothetical “Alaska Maximum” estimate. Hazard Mitigation Program, which has been administered by the National scenario is selected as the worst case distant tsunami scenario for Oregon. For Alaska Maximum Uniform slip on 12 subfaults with ~9.2 04 Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) since 1995. DOGAMI’s more detailed information on the tsunami models and methodologies used, each assigned values ranging 06 work is designed to help cities, counties, and other sites in coastal areas please see DOGAMI Publication Special Paper 43 (Witter and others, 2011). from 49 to 98 feet. 05

s

a s reduce the potential for disastrous tsunami-related consequences by l 07 o g

Maximum Alaska-Aleutian Wet/Dry Zone o understanding and mitigating this geologic hazard. Using federal funding u

C Map Explanation 08 09 o awarded by NOAA, DOGAMI has developed a new generation of tsunami 10 11 D inundation maps to help residents and visitors along the entire Oregon coast This tsunami inundation map displays the output of computer models Urban Growth Boundary Fire Station Figure 1: The “Ring of Fire” is a zone prepare for the next Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake and tsunami representing the two selected tsunami scenarios; Alaska M9.2 (1964) and the 12 13 of active earthquakes and volcanoes 14 as well as for far-travelled, or “distant” tsunamis. Alaska Maximum. All tsunami simulations were run assuming that prevailing that rings much of the Pacific Ocean, Police Station tide was static (no flow) and equal to Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) tide; including the Oregon coast. Volcanoes Building Footprint 15 and earthquakes on this ring are 16 The "Ring of Fire," also called the Circum-Pacific belt, is the zone of earthquake MHHW is defined as the average height of the higher high tides observed over caused by the movements of tectonic School activity surrounding the Pacific Ocean. It is an arc stretching from New an 18-year period at the Port Orford tide gauge. The map legend depicts the plates. One type of movement is called 6 Simulated Gauge Station subduction — when thin, oceanic 17 Zealand, along the eastern edge of Asia, north across the Aleutian Islands of respective amounts of deformation and the earthquake magnitude for these plates such as those that compose the Hospital Alaska, and south along the coasts of North and South America (Figure 1). two scenarios. Figure 3 shows the cumulative number of buildings inundated rock beneath the Pacific Ocean sink Cross Section Profile Location beneath thicker, lighter plates that The Ring of Fire is located at the borders of the Pacific Plate and other major within the map area. 101 U.S. Highway make up continental plates. Senate Bill 379 Line tectonic plates. The Pacific Plate is colliding with and sliding underneath other Earthquakes that occur as a result of 241 plates creating subduction zones that eventually release energy in the form of The computer simulation model output is provided to DOGAMI as millions of subduction can trigger tsunamis. State Highway Maximum Wave Elevation Profile B-B': City of Coos Bay Elevation Contour OREGON

an earthquake rupture. This rupture causes a vertical displacement of water points with values that indicate whether the location of each point is wet or y s

(25 ft intervals up to 200 ft) r o Improved Road r

o

that creates a tsunami. When these events occur around the Ring of Fire and dry. These points are converted to wet and dry contour lines that form the u C C but not directly off the Oregon coast, they take more time to travel the Pacific extent of inundation. The transition area between the wet and dry contour Ocean and arrive onshore (Figure 2). Distant earthquake/tsunami events lines is termed the Wet/Dry Zone, which equates to the amount of error in the Data References have occurred elsewhere on the planet: for example, offshore Chile in 1960 model when determining the maximum inundation for the each scenario. Prince William Sound 1964 M9.2 Earthquake and Tsunami Travel Time Map Source data: and 2010, offshore Alaska in 1964, near Sumatra in 2004, and offshore Japan Only the Alaska Maximum Wet/Dry Zone is shown on this map. This map is based on hydrodynamic tsunami modeling by Joseph Zhang, Oregon Health and Science University, Coos-01 Lakeside West Coos-10 Isthmus Slough Portland, Oregon. Model data input were created by John T. English and George R. Priest, Department of Coos-02 Lakeside East Coos-11 Catching Slough in March 2011. Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI), Portland, Oregon. Coos-03 Saunders Lake Coos-12 Bullards Beach This map also shows the regulatory tsunami inundation line (Oregon Revised Coos-04 Haynes Inlet Coos-13 Leneve Bathymetry data are from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Technical Memorandum Coos-05 Coos Bay - North Bend Coos-14 Coquille Historically, about 28 distant tsunamis have been documented by Oregon tide Statutes 455.446 and 455.447), commonly known as the Senate Bill 379 line. NESDIS NGDC-21 Digital Elevation Model of Port Orford, Oregon (2009). Coos-06 Coos River North Coos-15 Coquille River gages since 1854. The most severe was generated by the 1964 M9.2 Prince Senate Bill 379 (1995) instructed DOGAMI to establish the area of expected Coos-07 Coos River South Coos-16 Bandon Hydrology data, contours, critical facilities, and building footprints were created by DOGAMI from 2009 to Coos-08 Charleston - Cape Arago Coos-17 New River 2011. Senate Bill 379 line data were redigitized by Rachel R. Lyles Smith and Sean G. Pickner, DOGAMI, in 2011 William Sound earthquake in Alaska. Oregon was hit hard by the tsunami, tsunami inundation based on scientific evidence and tsunami modeling in Coos-09 Barview - South Slough which killed four people and caused an estimated 750,000 to 1 million dollars order to prohibit the construction of new essential and special occupancy (GIS file set, in press, 2012). Figure 3: The table and chart show the number of buildings inundated for the M9.2 (1964) in damage to bridges, houses, cars, boats, and sea walls. The greatest tsunami structures in this tsunami inundation zone (Priest, 1995). Alaska the Alaska Maximum tsunami scenarios for cities and unincorporated portions of the map. Urban growth boundaries (2010) were provided by the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). damage in Oregon did not occur along the ocean front as one might expect, 0 0.125 0.25 0.5 Kilometer but in the estuary channels located farther inland. Of the communities Time Series Graphs and Wave Elevation Profiles: In addition to the tsunami Transportation data (2008) were provided by Coos County. affected, Seaside was inundated by a 10 foot tsunami wave and was the scenarios, the computer model produces time series data for “gauge” locations Lidar data are from DOGAMI Lidar Data Quadrangles LDQ-2009-43124-C3-Charleston, LDQ-2009-43124-C2- 0 0.125 0.25 0.5 Mile hardest hit. Tsunami wave heights reached 10 to 11.5 feet in the Nehalem in the area. These points are simulated gauge stations that record the time, in CoosBay, LDQ-2009-43124-D2-NorthBend, and LDQ-2009-43124-D3-Empire. Map Data Creation/Development: River, 10 to 11.5 feet at Depoe Bay, 11.5 feet at Newport, 10 to 11 feet at seconds, of the tsunami wave arrival and the wave height observed for each Coordinate System: Oregon Statewide Lambert Conformal Conic, Unit: International Feet, Datum: North Tsunami Inundation Scenarios: George R. Priest, American Datum 1983 HARN. Graticule shown with geographic coordinates (latitude/longitude). Laura L. Stimely, Daniel E. Coe, Paul A. Ferro, Florence, 11 feet at Reedsport, 11 feet at Brookings, and 14 feet at Coos Bay time interval. It is especially noteworthy that the greatest wave height and Sean G. Pickner, Rachel R. Lyles Smith (Witter and others, 2011). velocity observed are not necessarily associated with the first tsunami wave References: Basemap Data: Kaleena L.B. Hughes, Sean G. Pickner, National Geophysical Data Center / World Data Center (NGDC/WDC) Global Historical Tsunami Database, Daniel E. Coe, Mathew A. Tilman to arrive onshore. Therefore evacuees should not assume that the tsunami Boulder, CO, USA. [http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu_db.shtml]. Figure 5 : These profiles depict the expected maximum tsunami wave elevation for the two Alaska tsunami scenarios along line A-A' Map Production: Alaska-Aleutian Model Specifications: DOGAMI modeled two distant event is over until the proper authorities have sounded the all-clear signal at Figure 2: This image depicts the in Barview and B-B' in downtown Coos Bay. The tsunami scenarios are modeled to occur at a static (no flow) tide and equal to the Cartography: Kaleena L.B. Hughes, Sean G. Pickner Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) high tide. Priest, G. R., 1995, Explanation of mapping methods and use of the tsunami hazard maps of the Oregon coast, Text: Don W.T. Lewis, Rachel R. Lyles Smith earthquake and tsunami scenarios involving M9.2 earthquakes originating the end of the evacuation. Figure 4 depicts time series data for the map plate actual initial tsunami arrival times in Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries Open-File Report O-95-67, 95 p. Editing: Don W.T. Lewis, Rachel R. Lyles Smith hours, around Pacific Rim from the Publication: Deborah A. Schueller near the Gulf of Alaska. The first scenario attempts to replicate the 1964 area. Figure 5 (profiles A-A' and B-B') depicts the overall wave height and 1964 Prince William Sound Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group (TPSW), 2006, Seaside, Oregon tsunami pilot study — modernization of Scale Map Date: 07/15/2012 Prince William Sound event, and the second scenario represents a inundation extent for the two scenarios at select locations on this map. earthquake. This magnitude 9.2 FEMA flood hazard maps: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2006-1234, 90 p. + 7 app. 1:12,000 earthquake and resulting tsunami [http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1234/]. hypothetical maximum event. This maximum event is the same model used caused 125 deaths and $311 million Tsunami Wave Height over Time for Simulated Gauge Stations Witter, R.C., Zhang, Y., Wang, K., Priest, G.R., Goldfinger, C., Stimely, L.L., English, J.T., and Ferro, P.A., 2011, by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in their 2006 tsunami hazard assessment in property loss, $84 million and 106 Figure 4: Top three charts depict the tsunami waves as they arrive at three selected reference points (simulated gauge stations). They Simulating tsunami inundation at Bandon, Coos County, Oregon, using hypothetical Cascadia and Alaska of Seaside (TPSW, 2006). This model uses extreme fault model parameters deaths in Alaska (NGDC/WDC). The earthquake scenarios: Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries Special Paper 43, 57 p. tsunami devastated many towns along show the change in wave heights for the two Alaska tsunami scenarios over an 6-hour period. The model predicts the first tsunami that result in maximum seafloor uplift; nearly twice as large as in the 1964 the Gulf of Alaska. Left serious wave will arrive at the entrance to Coos Bay in approximately 4 hours; waves will continue to occur for up to 8 hours after the damage in British Columbia, Hawaii, earthquake. Wave heights vary through time, and the first wave will not necessarily be the largest as waves interfere and reflect off Software: Esri ArcGIS® 10.0 and along the west coast of the United local topography and bathymetry. States left 15 dead, and was recorded Funding: This map was funded under award #NA09NW54670014 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric For copies of this publication contact: on tide gages in Cuba and Puerto Rico. Administration (NOAA) through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. Nature of the Northwest Information Center Bottom chart depicts the change in wave height for the Alaska Maximum tsunami scenario only. Modeled wave heights, arrival times, 800 NE Oregon Street, #28, Ste. 965 and wave durations can help emergency response personnel plan for a tsunami. (Chart revised 07/15/2012.) Portland, Oregon 97232 telephone (971) 673-2331 http://www.naturenw.org