Climate Lessons from the First International Polar Year*

CLIMATE LESSONS FROM THE FIRST INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR*

BY KEVIN R. WOOD AND JAMES E. OVERLAND

Evidence of a strong North Atlantic Oscillation signature in surface observations from 1882-83 highlights the impact of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in Arctic climate variability, both today and in the past.

hat a notable climate change has taken place and where the present warming trend first began in the Arctic in the years since the first is uncertain, and what the underlying causes are is TInternational Polar Year (IPY) in 1882-83 is not completely understood. Furthermore, warming beyond dispute. Evidence of the impacts of climate through the twentieth century was not a continuous change is widespread. Northern seas have become process, but apparently occurred in two intervals with warmer and the extent of sea ice has diminished. a cooler interlude between them (Jones and Moberg Glaciers have declined. Permafrost has thawed, lead- 2003). Scientists in the 1920s were quick to note the ing to the long-lasting transformation of ecosystems. onset of the first warming interval, which lasted into the Biogeographical boundaries have shifted northward 1940s and was especially pronounced in some regions as Arctic ecosystems have gradually been trans- of the Arctic (Ahlmann 1948). A large degree of natural formed into more sub-Arctic ones (ACIA 2005). variability; feedback mechanisms related to albedo While many of the effects related to climate varia- and other radiative processes; and external forcing, tion have been described over the last 100 years, when such as a change in carbon dioxide and methane, an increase in insolation, or a decrease in volcanism, have all potentially contributed to Arctic warming, but AFFILIATIONS: WOOD—Joint Institute for the Study of the with uncertain and variable relative importance and Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, unknown interactions (Overland 2006). Washington; OVERLAND—NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington One approach to understanding Arctic climate *Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Contribution Number change is to look more deeply into the history of explo- 2870 ration in the region, to a time before the present era of CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Kevin R. Wood, Joint Institute for warming commenced, for previously unutilized obser- the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washing- vations. While there is a rich library of work containing ton, Seattle, WA 98195 the accounts of hundreds of individual voyages of dis- E-mail: [email protected] covery going back to the sixteenth century, the first op- The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following the portunity to study the circumpolar Arctic environment table of contents. in a synoptic sense is found in the data and observations DOIilO.I I75/BAMS-87-I2-I685 recorded during the first IPY in 1882-83. A map show- In final form 5 July 2006 ing the locations of 12 principal and 13 auxiliary IPY sta- ©2006 American Meteorological Society tions is given in Fig. 1, along with a picture of each prin-

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY DECEMBER 2006 BAPIS* I 1685 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 12:09 PM UTC FIG. I. (a) Map showing the locations of the 12 principal research stations established in the Arctic during the first IPY. Observations were also collected in at least 13 auxiliary locations that are shown here, (b) Twelve Arctic research stations were established during the first IPY. More than 700 men incurred the dangers of Arctic service to establish and relieve these stations between 1881 and 1884. Photo of Fort Rae (date unknown: University of Alberta 2006, Julian Arthur Mills Fonds item number 78-45-165, available online at www.ualberta.ca/ ARCHIVES/).

1686 | BAflS- DECEMBER 2006 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 12:09 PM UTC cipal station. The IPY was the first coordinated series of expeditions dedicated to scientific research dispatched into the Arctic with the ex- press purpose of collecting synoptic meteorological and geophysical observations. These observations were also the first to be collected on the basis of a clearly defined sampling protocol and to use similar high-quality and well-calibrated instruments. The data were successfully gathered and published, but due to organizational short- comings after the conclusion of the field program they were never systematically analyzed. In 2007 the next Inter- national Polar Year will begin, 130 years after Carl Weyprecht first proposed that nations join together to conduct cooperative research FIG. 2. (top) Meteorological instruments at Cap Thordsen, Spitzbergen. in the polar regions. Like its (bottom) The wild pattern thermometer screen shown here was standard at all IPY stations except for the U.S. stations at Lady Franklin Bay and Point antecedents, the first and Barrow, SAT (black) and SLP (red) recorded at this station. the second IPY (1932-33) and the International Geophysical Year (1957-58), IPY daily mean surface air temperature (SAT), sea level pres- 2007-08 will seek new understanding of the Earth's en- sure (SLP) (Fig. 2), and 6-hourly winds. Meteorological vironment through an intensive, coordinated campaign data from the first IPY and an extensive documentary of polar observations and analysis (National Research image collection are available online (www.arctic.noaa. Council 2004). The next IPY will use much more ad- gov/aro/ipy-l). vanced and safer methods of conducting research, such Using this material, along with other physical as autonomous observing systems, for example, but the observations recorded at the time, we are able to principles and the spirit of scientific inquiry in the harsh describe the meteorological conditions and related polar regions remain in many ways identical to those seasonal events that occurred in 1882-83. With of the first IPY (see information online at www.us-ipy. the benefit of additional data obtained at these and org/ and www.ipy.org). One of the primary scientific nearby locations in subsequent years we can com- objectives is to place the climate changes currently un- pare the IPY observations with recent SAT and SLP folding in the Arctic within the context of the past in observations. In light of the relationship between the order to distinguish the relative contribution of natural atmospheric circulation and SAT anomaly patterns and anthropogenic variability. in the Northern Hemisphere, we investigate the cor- We present for the first time an analysis of the synop- relation between SAT and SLP observed during the tic meteorological observations recorded during the first first IPY and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) IPY. From the original reports1 published between 1885 index, a measure of the strength of atmospheric cir- and 1910 we have extracted and digitized monthly and culation based on the difference of normalized SLP

1 The original reports from which data were extracted are Dawson 1886; Ekholm 1887; Greely 1888; Lemstrom and Biese, Eds., 1886; Lenz, Ed. 1886a; Lenz, Ed. 1886b; Neumayer and Borgen, Eds., 1886; Paulson 1889; Ray 1885; Snellen and Ekama 1910; Steen 1887; von Wohlgemuth 1886.

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY DECEMBER 2006 BAflS*| 1687 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 12:09 PM UTC between Ponta Delgada, Azores, and Stykkisholmur/ product of simultaneous observations. "The entire Reykjavik, Iceland (Hurrell 1995). The NAO can also Meteorology of our day rests upon comparison," he be interpreted as a regional expression of the more said, "all the successes of which it can boast—the hemispheric-scale Northern Annular Mode (NAM) laws of storms, the theories of winds—are results of (Ostermeier and Wallace 2003). Before turning to synchronous observations." Meteorological constants the particulars of the meteorological analysis it is revealed the average conditions in different places, but appropriate to review the origin and scientific objec- were not useful in understanding the physical laws tives of the first IPY. that governed changes in those conditions. "They can answer the how," he said, "but are rarely equal to the WEYPRECHT'S INSPIRATION. A decade be why" (Weyprecht 1875c). Weyprecht worked for six fore the first IPY, Carl Weyprecht years, until his untimely death (Fig. 3) realized that solutions at age 43 from tuberculosis, to to the fundamental problems of launch the set of cooperative global meteorology and geophysics international expeditions with were to be sought near the Earth s a primary mission to collect the poles, and that decisive results synoptic observations that he would only be obtained through hoped would begin to reveal the a series of coordinated scientific fundamental physical laws of the expeditions (Weyprecht 1875a). Earth and its atmosphere. Weyprecht's inspiration came from his experience as a scientist SO EXTENSIVE AND DAN- and co-commander of the Austro- GEROUS A WORK. Eleven Hungarian Polar Expedition of nations established 14 principal 1872-74 (Baker 1982). Thousands research stations, with 12 in the of scientific observations were Arctic and 2 in the sub-Antarctic. recorded during this expedition, The first two were established but the information thus amassed in the autumn of 1881 by the was of limited use. Weyprecht United States, at Lady Franklin observed, Bay, Ellesmere Island, and Point Barrow, Alaska. The remaining 12 FIG. 3. C. Weyprecht (1838-81) But whatever interest all these (Annals of the International stations were active by the autumn observations may possess, they Geophysical Year 1959). of 1882 (Fig. lb). The designated do not possess that scientific period for the international pro- value, even supported by a long column of figures, gram was from 1 August 1882 through 1 September which under other circumstances might have been 1883, but participants were encouraged to obtain an the case. They only furnish us with a picture of the additional year of observations if possible. The United extreme effects of the forces of Nature in the Arctic States began work a year early, and Russia and Finland regions, but leave us completely in the dark with both extended their activities for an additional year, respect to their causes (Weyprecht 1875b). until August 1884. Thus, the field program related to the IPY ran from the summer of 1881 through the sum- "Nations should put aside their unprofitable competi- mer of 1884. By Greely's (1886) account, more than 700 tion for mere geographic discovery," he said, and instead men incurred the dangers of Arctic service to establish field a series of coordinated expeditions dedicated and relieve the northern stations. to scientific research. The work of these expeditions A large number of auxiliary stations also con- would be "with instruments precisely alike, governed tributed observations to the scientific program. Six by precisely the same instructions and for a period of auxiliary meteorological stations were established at one year at least, to record a series of the utmost possible Moravian missions in Labrador as part of the German synchronous observations." Only in this way, he said, program and seven were established by the Russian "shall we be placed in possession of materials enabling Geographical Society in Siberia (Baker 1982). Several us to attempt a solution of the problems which now lie of the Danish settlements in Greenland also contrib- embedded in the Arctic ice..(Weyprecht 1875c). uted meteorological observations to their nation's Weyprecht understood that advances in me- effort, as did another Danish expedition beset in the teorology and the geophysical sciences had been the Kara Sea (Paulson 1889). The long list of geophysical

1688 | BAflS- DECEMBER 2006 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 12:09 PM UTC observatories that participated in various aspects of Greely wrote that while it was a "crude and unsatisfac- the synchronous research program spanned the globe tory presentation of this complex problem," he made (Barr 1985). it public with the conviction that "at no distant day" it The first International Polar Year was by far the might help to establish the general laws of atmospheric largest and most complex scientific effort undertaken change (Greely 1888). in the polar regions during the nineteenth century. It This was not to be. Although notable contributions was the first to be dedicated to scientific research rather were made in several subjects such as anthropology than to geographical discovery, and the first to collect and oceanography (Barr 1985), in the end no fun- simultaneous observations on the basis of a clearly damental discoveries were made in meteorology defined sampling protocol and to use similar high- quality and well-calibrated instruments (Fig. 4).

UNREALIZED PROMISE. The scientific work of each expedition was accomplished, in one instance with tremendous personal hardship and sacrifice. The terrible fate of the U.S. expedition to Lady Franklin Bay led by Lieutenant Adolphus Greely is well known (Fig. 5), but less so is the fact that part of their fatal trial was endured to preserve the observations that were the result of two years of arduous labor (Greely 1886). Greely was aware that if a relief steamer did not arrive after their second winter they would be forced to retreat to safety on their own. He made condensed copies of their scientific records (amounting to some FIG. 4. Calibration series performed at the Central 500 observations per day for two years), and when they Physical Observatory in St. Petersburg, Russia, for 24 abandoned Fort Conger in August 1883 they took with thermometers used at the IPY station at Ssagastyr them—in lieu of extra rations—these copies sealed in (Lenz 1886a). The majority of uncorrected readings three tin boxes weighing 50 pounds each. They car- fall within 0.25°C of standard instrument values at ried their diaries and 70 pounds of glass photographic temperatures above -20°C. For temperatures below -35°C a minimum thermometer (not shown) was used plates (Greely 1888). In addition, they took with at this station. Accurate measurement of tempera- them all of the standard thermometers and several tures below the freezing point of mercury (-38.8°C) other weighty instruments that had to be returned was difficult during the nineteenth century. for recalibration if the readings were to be useful. Some of these instruments are still preserved in the col- lections of the Smithsonian Institution (Fig. 6). The scientific records were the only meaningful legacy of their effort. If they were lost, all of their hardships would have been for nothing. All of the scientists in- volved in the first IPY, and especially Greely and his men, expected that their work would contribute to important advances in meteorology and other branches of science. In the conclud- FIG. 5. Lieutenant Greely (bottom row, fourth from left) and the men of the ing remarks of his report Lady Franklin Bay expedition. All but Greely and five others perished while on atmospheric pressure, awaiting relief, which did not come until June 1884.

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY DECEMBER 2006 BAflS* | 1689 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 12:09 PM UTC FIG. 6. (Right) Sergeant Winfield Jewell making observations in the thermometer shelter at Fort Conger in August, 1882. Photo: National Archives, (top left) The expedition's instruments were cached near Cape Sabine in October 1883 (Greely 1886). The large box protruding from the top contains the Pierce No. I gravity pendulum used at Fort Conger, (bottom left) Standard and special minimum thermometers in the collection of instruments preserved at the Smithsonian Institution. The special minimum thermometers were constructed by J. and H. J. Green, instrument makers, under the supervision of the astronomer of the Winchester Observatory of Yale College. He considered these to be "probably the best thermometers ever sent into the Arctic regions ..(Greely 1888). Photo: Deborah J. Warner, National Museum of American History.

or the other geophysical disciplines that were the results, dissolved even before this task was completed. central focus of the first IPY (Bullis 1973; Baker At the last meeting of the commission in 1891 it was 1982). The most essential part of the research plan proposed that two committees be formed to study the that Weyprecht had envisioned—the synchronous meteorological and geomagnetic data, but apparently program—was never completed. Hundreds of thou- nothing more was produced (Wild 1892). Two months sands of synoptic observations were painstakingly of IPY temperature and pressure data were used in a acquired and brought back from the field, but they doctoral dissertation published in 1902, and circum- were never collated and analyzed. No synthesis of polar pressure charts for 22 days based on IPY data the data was undertaken. Reports containing the were published in 1924 as part of the planning for an observations collected at each individual station were international airship expedition to the Russian Arctic published en extenso over the next 25 years, but the (Luedecke 2004). The data collected at such personal International Polar Commission for the IPY, which cost during the first IPY thus fell into obscurity. With was responsible for overseeing the publication of the synchronous data largely abandoned, the poten-

1690 | BAflS- DECEMBER 2006 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 12:09 PM UTC tial benefit of the coordinated program was lost and anomaly patterns across the North Atlantic (e.g., the the first IPY was reduced to a series of interesting but North Atlantic temperature seesaw) has long been merely concomitant expeditions. known (Hann 1883; Exner 1924). During the first IPY year (September 1882-August 1883) the NAO index ANALYSIS OF SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS was positive for 8 months and negative for 4 (Fig. 7). FROM THE FIRST IPY. Presented here is the The well-known seesaw pattern in temperature be- first analysis of the unutilized synchronous meteo- tween Greenland and Europe is evident, especially rological observations collected during the first IPY. from February through April, as the NAO switches We have extracted and digitized monthly and daily from a positive index to a negative one and back again. SAT, SLP, and 6-hourly winds from the original IPY SLP and SAT anomaly patterns not associated with reports. Monthly SAT and SLP values are compared either phase of the NAO appeared in November and to recent climatology at the same or nearby locations. December. In the latter month, the high SLP observed We adopt the 30-year reference period of 1968-97 for at nearly every IPY station is associated with wide- comparison in order to highlight differences between spread cold SAT anomalies. Hurrell et al. (2003) point the IPY year and the most recent period of continuous out that there is typically a large amount of within- record. An extensive calibration and intercomparison season variability in the atmospheric circulation of of instruments was undertaken during the first IPY, the North Atlantic. "Most winters," they write, "are but there is inevitably some uncertainty with respect not dominated by any particular regime; rather, the to comparisons to data from modern instruments. atmospheric circulation anomalies in one month However, considering both the type of analysis un- might resemble the positive index phase of the NAO, der discussion here and the large magnitude of the while in another month they resemble the negative anomalies observed, it would require an unexpectedly phase or some other pattern altogether." large amount of error in the original observations to While an NAO-like pattern captures about 24% change the basic results. of the monthly SLP variability of the Northern Monthly station anomalies of SLP and SAT are Hemisphere circulation in winter (Quadrelli and shown in Fig. 7. SAT values observed at IPY stations Wallace 2004), a North Pacific pattern related to the are within the boundaries of the reference climatol- Aleutian low pressure center is also important. The ogy (1968-97), but show a wide range of variability strong, warm anomaly that occurred at Point Barrow from place to place over the course of the year, a in February 1883 has many features often associated feature typical of the Arctic climate today. Extreme with the development of a strong Aleutian low (Stone SAT values observed during the IPY approached both et al. 2002). Widespread cold SAT anomalies were the maximum and minimum limit of the reference common in the latter part of the summer of 1883. climatology. There was a higher occurrence of nega- During summer radiation effects have a major influ- tive monthly station anomalies than positive ones. ence on air temperatures, and advection by large-scale Of 153 total months of observation, 79 monthly SAT atmospheric patterns is less important. The presence anomalies were within 1 standard deviation (std dev) or absence of sea ice can have a large effect on SAT at of the reference mean, 24 were greater than +1 Std dev, coastal stations in the Arctic (Rigor et al. 2000). and 50 were less than -1 std dev. These cooler tem- To quantify some of the conclusions in the previous peratures may be biased by the larger number of paragraphs, a normalized spatial pattern of the NAO stations in west Greenland; however, we note that in both SAT and SLP fields was generated at the IPY the stations in the Kara Sea, and especially Siberia, station locations based on the 40-yr European Centre observed particularly cold SAT values during most for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) of the year. Cold values were also reported at Point Re-Analysis (ERA-40) for 1957-2001 (Uppala et al. Barrow in the summer of 1883. The number of warm 2005). Observed IPY station anomalies were then anomalies greater than +1 Std dev was nearly equal to spatially correlated with the ERA-40 patterns for each that expected from the 1968-97 reference period. month, producing a "Pattern NAO." The correlation SLP and SAT anomalies are regionally coherent of the Pattern NAO with the actual NAO index for the and their spatial and temporal variability is frequently winter months (November through March) of 1882-83 consistent with monthly fluctuations in atmospheric was 0.93 for SAT and 0.89 for SLP. The spatial distribu- circulation patterns based on the index value of the tion and regional correlation of the IPY station values NAO. The relationship between the intensity of the contributes to the large NAO signal. Icelandic low pressure area, which defines most of the Evidence of a strong NAO signature in surface variability exhibited by the NAO, and temperature observations from the first IPY highlights the impact

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY DECEMBER 2006 BAflS* | 1691 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 12:09 PM UTC of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on in." The first snow fell on 27 September, but the Great regional climate variability in the Arctic. Rodgers Slave Lake did not freeze over for another month. The (1985) notes that decadal fluctuations in atmospheric Mackenzie River was still nearly free from ice at the end circulation patterns have an important role in estab- of November, Dawson said, "whereas it is usually full of lishing regional temperature trends. drifting ice in October, and frozen over in November." The median freeze date for the Mackenzie River at Fort FIRST-PERSON ACCOUNTS OF THE ARCTIC Simpson, based on 44 yr of observations between 1931 ENVIRONMENT IN 1882-83. Descriptions of and 1985, is 25 November, but dates range from as early the Arctic environment written by IPY scientists add as 31 October to as late as 15 December (Canadian Ice to the picture derived from the instrumental data. Service 2002). With the river still nearly ice free at the There is often a correspondence between meteorologi- end of November, the autumn of 1882 must have been cal conditions and the seasonal timing (phenology) of uncommonly mild at Fort Rae. biological and physical events, such as the breakup of In contrast, cold anomalies were accompanied by river or sea ice and the appearance of the spring bloom, unusually difficult sea ice conditions from Iceland to for example. Where possible these descriptions are also the Kara Sea. The Netherlands expedition bound for compared with similar data from the twentieth century. The autumn of 1882 began with generally mild conditions in North America and in northern Fennoscandia (encompassing northern Norway and Sweden, Finland and the Kola Peninsula in Russia); but cold conditions prevailed in the Atlantic and from Novaya Zemlya to Siberia. Particularly mild conditions were described by Greely at Fort Conger, on Ellesmere Island (Fig. 6), and Dawson at Fort Rae, Northwest Territories, in northern Canada. At Fort Conger, Greely (1888) wrote

The mean temperature in August, 35.3° [F, 1.8°C], was unusually high for an Arctic station, and remarkably so considering the latitude of Fort Conger. An unusually high maximum, 47.8° [F, 8.8°C], was recorded on the 21st. The temperature fell permanently below 32° [F, 0°C] on the morning of the 29th, one day earlier than the preceding year [and two days later than average today]. The early part of [September] was unusually warm ...

At Fort Rae, Dawson (1886) reported that "The residents all agreed that the season was a very exceptional one, the winter being unusually mild, and late in setting

1692 | BAflS- DECEMBER 2006 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 12:09 PM UTC Dikson in the steamer Varna and a Danish expedi- Ice conditions were particularly severe on the coast tion in the Dijmphna were trapped in the ice in the of Iceland, where shipping was completely disrupted southern Kara Sea for almost an entire year (Fig. 8). (Chief Signal Officer 1882). Vinje (2001) found that The Danish expedition leader reported that the local summer ice extent in the Nordic Seas has declined whalers thought 1882 was the least favorable ice since the mid-nineteenth century, with the August ice year that they had ever seen (Hovgaard 1884). The edge retreating by about 40% (-22% in the western Russian scientist N. Zubov (1948) noted that in the and -62% in the eastern halves), making it much less years of 1869-1920 the probability of meeting ice likely that similar ice conditions as those encountered in the southern Kara Sea in September was about during the first IPY would be found today. 30%, but after 1929 this area was completely ice free. From November through March the NAO index Significant amounts of sea ice are seldom seen at all fluctuated between positive and negative values, indi- in this region today (Environmental Working Group cating that the atmospheric circulation pattern over the 2000; Parkinson and Cavalieri 1989). Expeditions North Atlantic was quite variable. This variability is bound for Jan Mayen and Svalbard, Norway, were reflected in the SAT and SLP anomaly patterns, as we also hampered by sea ice during the summer of 1882. have shown, and also in the descriptions of observers. The variability in the Pacific region can be inferred from the following description from Point Barrow (Fig. 9) of repeated storm-driven incursions of warm air in late January and February. Ray (1884) reported that one powerful southerly gale caused the temperature to rise 48°, from about -30° to 18°F. The wind velocity reached 100 mph before the anemometer failed, and the air was so filled with flying sand and gravel that it was "impossible for any living thing to stand before it." In March, effects consistent with the negative phase of the NAO were felt in Greenland. At Godthaab, Paulson (1889) wrote that the month of March was one of extraordi-

FIG. 7. Anomalies in SLP and SAT presented in std devs from the reference mean (1968-97). This reference was chosen to highlight differences and similarities between the IPY and recent climatic conditions in the Arctic. Unfilled circles indicate missing data. Synchronous observations of SLP and SAT observed during the first IPY are regionally coherent and exhibit a wide range of spatial and temporal variability. Anomalies in Greenland and Fennoscandia are often associated with monthly fluctuations in the NAO index. Winter anomalies at Point Barrow show the effects of North Pacific influence. NAO index data provided by the Climate Analysis Section, NCAR (Hurrell 1995).

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY DECEMBER 2006 BAflS* | 1693 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 12:09 PM UTC this period was 29 April, and the latest 22 May (Magnuson et al. 2000). The melt season occurred earlier than average at Godthaab and at Fort Conger. Greely (1888) observed water running freely on 4 June, and the blossom of the purple saxifrage (Saxifragia oppositifolia) was seen the same day. At Cap Thordsen, Spitzber- gen, Ekholm (1887) noted that melt began on 26 May and the purple saxifrage was in flower on 2 June. Arctic plants flower almost immediately after snowmelt commences because buds are formed the previous growing season (Shaver and Kummerow 1992; Stenstrom et al. 1997), and thus the ap- FIG. 8. While sea ice is infrequently seen in September in the southern pearance of bloom corroborates other Kara Sea today, in 1882 the expedition ships Dijmphna and Varna en- observations of melt onset. No modern countered freezing temperatures and severe ice conditions. Whalers in situ data on the bloom phenology thought 1882 was the least favorable ice year that they had ever seen of Saxifraga exists for Fort Conger, in the Kara Sea. This photo was taken on 23 Sep 1882, about 5 days but in comparison to instrumental after the ships were finally beset. values the occurrence of melt around narily large temperature changes caused by the influx the first of June, as confirmed by the appearance of of Atlantic air from the south. March 1883 was the blooms, is reasonably early. Modern records of bloom eighth-warmest recorded in 127 years (1875-2002) at phenology from other locations on Ellesmere Island Upernavik. Farther north, there was a storm of unusual support this assessment (G. Henry 2006, personal violence at Fort Conger, with southerly winds in excess communication). of 60 miles per hour that caused the temperature to In contrast, the winter lingered at Ssagastyr, the rise sharply. "The influx of warm southerly air was Russian station on the Lena River delta in Siberia. perhaps the most marked feature of the storm," Greely According to Bunge (1886), the first time in 250 days (1888) later remarked. Here, the mean temperature for the month was higher than any recorded previously in Smith Sound, and in the modern instrumental record (1951-2001) only March 1997 exceeds the warm temperature of March 1883. The commencement of an early snowmelt season in Fennoscandia can be linked to a positive NAO circulation pattern. At Sodankyla, Finland, the melt season commenced 19 days earlier than the reference mean date and at Bossekop, Norway, it was 10 days earlier, based on the instrumental record. The breakup of the Tornionjoki River, in northern Finland, occurred on 10 May. This is two days after the reference median FIG. 9. At Point Barrow warm anomalies typical of North Pacific date, and falls in the middle of the influence occurred in late January and February, caused by repeated range observed over the 29 years of storm-driven incursions of warm air. Powerful gales caused the tem- 1968-96. The earliest date during perature to rise sharply.

1694 | BAflS- DECEMBER 2006 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 12:09 PM UTC that the temperature rose above 0°C was on 28 May, "Geodesy, meteorology, and magnetism may, or may and flocks of migratory birds filled the air. This was not, profit as fully as sanguine advocates anticipated." a short-lived false spring, and warmer temperatures The scientific results produced by each of the national were quickly succeeded by cold weather and snow- expeditions of the first IPY were substantial, but the storms. All of the migratory birds vanished except for simultaneous data were never fully utilized and the the small shore birds, which were frequently found fundamental discoveries Weyprecht anticipated were frozen to death near the station. The ice on the Lena not realized. We can imagine that if he had lived longer River, though still eight feet thick, burst on 9 June the result might have been different. with the arrival of the spring flood. A large number The greatest legacy of the first IPY may be the of small fish were thrown up on the ice by the force precedent of 11 nations joining together to accom- of the water that gushed out; the men were able to plish an intensive cooperative program of innovative collect more than 70 pounds in a few minutes with polar research for the purpose of better understand- only their hands. The ice, however, remained in the ing global geophysical systems. The successful river until 26 June when it was dispersed by both wind example of these nations joining together to carry and wave. The first blooms (Draba, Chrysosplenium, out such an extensive and dangerous program for Salix) appeared on 28 June. All indications suggest a strictly scientific purposes led to the second IPY cool and belated spring in Siberia. in 1932-33 and the International Geophysical Year At Point Barrow, the melt season arrived two days (IGY) in 1957-58. The IGY was called "perhaps the earlier than normal, based on the reference climatol- most ambitious and at the same time the most suc- ogy, but Ray (1885) observed that "The spring was cessful cooperative enterprise ever undertaken by very backward, and we experienced a great deal of man" (Bullis 1973). The next IPY in 2007-08 will cold, disagreeable weather; shore leads opened slowly. follow the pattern set by its predecessors and bring In Elson Bay and along shore to the eastward of Point to bear new, more effective, and safer methods of Barrow the ice held on until late in August." The conducting research in the harsh environment of summer was particularly cold, especially June and the polar regions. Understanding Arctic and global July. The average summer air temperature in 1883 environmental change is one of the leading objectives was among the coldest recorded at Point Barrow. for the next IPY. Recognizing the perspective that Only eight summers have been as cold since regular historical observations can afford to the evolution of measurements began in 1893. The station was pre- the climate and ecosystems, efforts to recover more cipitously abandoned at the end of August when the of these data will be intensified. As in Weyprecht s relief ship was badly damaged by heavy sea ice that day, the answers for many new and some long- had remained close to Point Barrow all summer. standing questions remain imbedded in the Arctic Warm anomalies were present in early sum- ice. But, it is quite possible that some valuable clues mer from Labrador to Fennoscandia. Jakobshaven, have already been collected by earlier generations of Greenland, Hoffenthal (Hopedale), Labrador, and scientist-explorers. Sodankyla were particularly warm, but in July and We have presented the first analysis of the synoptic August cool conditions spread to every region of the observations collected during the first IPY in 1882-83. Arctic then under observation. The latter months were These observations span only a single year, but offer a especially cold in Fennoscandia, notwithstanding the unique glimpse of the circumpolar environment from preceding 6-month series of warm anomalies. Though a period before the present era of Arctic warming, and the number of stations reporting had dropped to nine long before the development of a regular network of by August 1883, it is worth noting that the modern meteorological stations in the Arctic. The SLP and SAT temperature record seldom shows such widespread anomalies that occurred during the IPY were region- cool summer conditions as those reported during the ally coherent and exhibited a wide range of spatial and last two months of the IPY. temporal variability. Cold SAT anomalies were more frequent relative to the current climatology (1968-97), CONCLUSIONS. A principal object of the first especially in the summer, while the number of warm International Polar Year (IPY), as it was envisioned by anomalies greater than +1 std dev was consistent with Carl Weyprecht 130 years ago, was the collection and the current reference period. It is notable that some SAT analysis of the meteorological observations presented and phenological anomalies were similar in magnitude herein. "The scientific work of each expedition was to those that have occurred in more recent times. to a greater or lesser extent successful," Greely (1886) Our analysis confirms the validity of Weyprecht s wrote, but the work must be judged by the final results. initial idea that a program of synoptic observations at

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY DECEMBER 2006 BAflS* | 1695 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 12:09 PM UTC high latitudes could provide insight on climate pro- and Reports for the Benefit of Commerce and cesses (Weyprecht 1875c). The large spatial correlation Agriculture, 8. of station observations seen in the monthly data is Dawson, H. P., 1886: Observations of the International related to fluctuations in temperature advection result- Polar Expedition, Fort Rae. Eyre and Spottiswood for ing from variation in atmospheric circulation patterns. Triibner and Co., 326 pp. The occurrence of a strong North Atlantic Oscillation Ekholm, N. G., 1887: Observations Faites au Cap Thors- (NAO) signature in surface observations in the nine- den, Spitzbergpar VExpedition Suedoise. L'Academie teenth century highlights the impact of large-scale at- Royale des Sciences de Suede, Vol. 1, 218 pp.; Vol. 2, mospheric circulation patterns on regional climate vari- 207 pp. ability in the Arctic. Rather large regional temperature Environmental Working Group, 2000: Joint U.S. anomalies may be produced through these processes. Russian Sea Ice Atlas for the Arctic Ocean. Version Extremes in Arctic climate can be produced through 1.0, National Snow and Ice Data Center, CD-ROM. a combination of this intrinsic variability combined Exner, F. M., 1924: Monatliche Luftdruck- und Temper- with the influence from external forcing, both natural aturanomalen auf der Erde. Sitz. Kais. Akad Wiss. (such as volcanoes) and those of anthropogenic origin. Wien, 133 (2A), 307-408. Thus, changes in prevailing atmospheric circulation Greely, A. W., 1886: Three Years of Arctic Service. Richard patterns readily lead to other environmental changes Bentley and Son, Vol. 1,428 pp.; Vol. 2,444 pp. in the Arctic that have cryospheric, biological, human, , 1888: Report on the Proceedings of the United and climate feedback implications. States Expedition to Lady Franklin Bay, Grinnell Land. Government Printing Office, Vol. 1, 545 pp.; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We gratefully acknowl- Vol. 2, 738 pp. edge the support of the NOAA Arctic Research Office. Hann, J., 1883: Handbuch der Klimatologie. J. Englehorn, We appreciate discussions with many colleagues on early 764 pp. Arctic climate, and we stand in awe of the imagination and Hovgaard, A., 1884: Die Eiszustande im Karischen commitment of the scientists of the first International Polar Meere. Mitteilungen aus Justus Perthes' Geogra- Year who obtained these data so long ago. We thank Kevin phischer Anstalt, 30, 253-259. Rennert for providing the NAO calculations. Hurrell, J., cited 1995: NAO/AO climate indices. Climate Analysis Section, NCAR. [Available online at www. cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/indices.html.] REFERENCES , and Coauthors, 2003: An overview of the North ACIA, 2005: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Atlantic Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation: Cambridge University Press, 1042 pp. Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact, J. Ahlmann, H., 1948: The present climatic fluctuation. Hurrell, Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, and M. Visbeck, Geogr. /., 112, 165-195. Eds., Amer. Geophys. Union, 1-35. Baker, F., 1982: The first International Polar Year. Polar International Council of Scientific Unions, 1959: An- Record, 21 (132), 275-285. nals of the International Geophysical Year. Vol. 1. Barr, W., 1985: The expeditions of the International Pergamon Press. Polar Year, 1882-83. The Arctic Institute of North Jones, P., and A. Moberg, 2003: Hemispheric and America Tech. Paper 29, 222 pp. large-scale surface air temperature variations: An Bullis, H., 1973: The Political Legacy of the International extensive revision and update to 2001. /. Climate, Geophysical Year. Committee on Foreign Affairs, 16, 206-223. U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Lemstrom, S., and E. Biese, Eds., 1886: Observations Foreign Affairs, U.S. Government Printing Office, Faits aux Stations de Sodankyla et de Kultala. GovDoc: Y 4.F 76/l:SCI 2/11, 64 pp. LTmprimerie des Hertiers de Simelius, 256 pp. Bunge, A., 1886: The description of a voyage to the mouth of Lenz, R., Ed., 1886a: Beobachtungen der Russischen the Lena. Beobachtungen der Russischen Polarstation an Polarstation an der Lenamundung. Expedition der der Lenamundung, R. Lenz, Ed., Expedition der Kaiserl, Kaiserl, Russischen Geographischen Gesellschaft. Russischen Geographischen Gesellschaft, 1-96. , Ed., 1886b: Beobachtungen der Russischen Canadian Ice Service, 2002: Weekly ice thickness and Polarstation auf Noway a Semlja. Expedition der on-ice snow depth measurements for Canadian sta- Kaiserl, Russischen Geographischen Gesellschaft. tions (database). Ottawa. Luedecke, C., 2004: The first International Polar Year Chief Signal Officer, 1882: Monthly weather review, (1882-1883): A big science experiment with small June 1882. War Department, Division of Telegrams science equipment. Proceedings of the International

1696 | BAflS-DECEMBE R 2006 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 12:09 PM UTC Commission on History of Meteorology, Vol. 1, No. 1, Steen, A. S., 1887: Die internationale Polarforschung, ICHM, 55-64. 1882-1883. Beobachtungs-Ergebnisse der Norwe- Magnuson, J., and Coauthors, 2000: Historical trends in gischen Polarstation Bossekop in Alten. Grodahl & lake and river ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Sons, Vol. 1, 131 pp; Vol. 2, 291 pp. Science, 289, 1743-1746. Stenstrom, M., F. Gugerli, and G. H. R. Henry, 1997: Re- National Research Council, 2004: A Vision for the sponse of Saxifraga oppositifolia to simulated climate International Polar Year 2007-2008. National change at three contrasting latitudes. Global Change Academies Press, 96 pp. Biol, 3 (Suppl. 1), 44-54. Neumayer, G., and C. Borgen, Eds., 1886: Die Stone, R. S., E. G. Dutton, J. M. Harris, and D. Long- Beobachtungs-Ergebnisse der Deutschen Stationen. necker, 2002: Earlier spring snowmelt in northern 2 Vols., Verlag von A. Asher & Co. Alaska as an indicator of climate. /. Geophys. Res., Ostermeier, G. M., and J. M. Wallace, 2003: Trends in 107, 4089, doi:10.1029/2000JD000286. the North Atlantic Oscillation—Northern Annular University of Alberta Archives, cited 2002: Old Fort Rae. Mode during the twentieth century. /. Climate, 16, Julian Arthur Mills Fonds, item no. 78-45-165. [Avail- 336-341. able online at www.ualberta.ca/ARCHIVES/.] Overland, J., 2006: Arctic change: Multiple observations Uppala, S. M., and Coauthors, 2005: The ERA-40 and recent understanding. Weather, 61, 78-83. re-analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961- Parkinson, C., and D. Cavalieri, 1989: Arctic sea ice 3012. 1973-1987: Seasonal, regional, and interannual Vinje, T., 2001: Anomalies and trends of sea-ice extent variability. J. Geophys. Res., 94, 14 499-14 523. and atmospheric circulation in the Nordic seas dur- Paulson, A., 1889: Observations Meteorologiques ing the period 1864-1998. /. Climate, 14, 255-267. de Godthaab et de la Cote Ouest du Groenlaand. von Wohlgemuth, E. E., 1886: Osterreichische Exploration Internationale des Regions Arctiques, Polarexpedition nach Jan Mayen. Beobachtungs- 1882-1883. Expedition danoise. Observations faits a Ergebnisse. Der Kaiserliche-Konigliche Hof-und Godthaab. 2 Vols., G.E.C. Gad. Staatsdruckerei. Quadrelli, R., and J. M. Wallace, 2004: A simplified Weyprecht, C., 1875a: On the scientific work of the sec- linear framework for interpreting patterns of ond Austro-Hungarian polar expedition (Translated Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate variability. from Geographische Mitteilungen, Vol. XXI, p. 65). /. /. Climate, 17, 3728-3744. Roy. Geograph. Soc., XLV, 1-33. Ray, P. H., 1884: Discussion related to: Scott, R. H., , 1875b: Die 2. Osterr.-Ungarische Nordpolar- Notes on the Proceedings of the International Polar Expedition unter Weyprecht und Payer, 1872/4. Conference, held at Vienna, April 17th-24th, 1884. Schiff'slieut. Weyprecht's Vortrag liber die von Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 262-266. ihm geleiteten wissenschaftlichen Beobachtungen, , 1885: Report of the International Polar Expedition gehalten in Wien 18. Januar 1875. Mitteilungen aus to Point Barrow, Alaska. Government Printing Justus Perthes' Geographischer Anstalt, 21, 65-72. Office, 695 pp. , 1875c: Fundamental principles of scientific Arctic Rigor, I., R. Colony, and S. Martin, 2000: Variations in investigation. An address delivered before the 48th surface air temperature observations in the Arctic, meeting of German naturalists and physicians at 1979-97. /. Climate, 13, 896-914. Graz, on the 18th of September 1875. Rodgers, J. C., 1985: Atmospheric circulation changes Wild, H., 1892: Jahresbericht des Physikalischen associated with warming over the Northern North Central-Observatoriums fur 1891. Repertorium fur Atlantic in the 1920s. /. Climate Appl. Meteor., 24, Meteorolgie, XV, No. 12, 85-86. 1303-1310. Zubov, N., 1948: Arctic ice and the warming of the Shaver, G., and J. Kummerow, 1992: Phenology, re- Arctic. In the Center of the Arctic: An Outline of source allocation, and growth of Arctic vascular the History of Arctic Exploration and of the Physical plants. Arctic Ecosystems in a Changing Climate: An Geography of the Central Arctic (translated by E.R. Ecophysiological Perspective, F. S. Chapin III, et al., Hope). Directorate of Scientific Information Service, Eds., Academic Press, 193-215. Defence Research Board, 1-72. Snellen, M., 1886: De Nederlandische Pool-Expeditie 1882-1883. L. E. Bosch en Zoom, 164 pp. , and H. Ekama, 1910: Rapport sur VExpedition Neerlandaise qui a Hiverne dans la Mer de Kara en 1882/83. J. Van Boekhoven, 186 pp.

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