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Key Beneficiary of Belt & Road Initiative, Initiate with “Buy” 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Company Report: China Energy Engineering Corp. (03996 HK) 究 (852) 2509 7592 Equity Research 公司报告： 中国能源建设 (03996 HK) [email protected] 7 November 2017 [Table_Summary] Key Beneficiary of Belt & Road Initiative, Initiate with “Buy” 一带一路的主要受益者，首予“买入”评级 Global power capacity is set to grow at a CAGR of 2.3% from 2016 to Rating:[Table_Rank ] Buy 公 2020. Cumulative installed capacity of global power plants reached 6,638 GW Initial in 2016 and is set to increase to 7,281 GW in 2020, implying a CAGR of 2.3% 司 or 161 GW of net capacity additions per year during the period. Nationwide 评级： 买入(首次覆盖) 报 power capacity is set to grow at a CAGR of 5.3% from 2016 to 2020. 告 CEEC is certain to benefit from the rise in global energy investment and 6[Table_Price-18m TP 目标价] : HK$1.70 the Belt & Road Initiative national strategy. Overseas sales contributed Company Report 12.3% / 14.3% / 14.8% from 2014 to 2016, respectively. We expect the contribution of overseas sales to further increase to 16.6% / 19.3% / 22.6% in Share price 股价： HK$1.370 2017 to 2019, respectively, or to grow at a CAGR of 28.2% from 2016 to 2019. Overseas markets are set to be further penetrated under the Belt & Road Initiative. Stock performance 股价表现 Sales and net profit are expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.3% and [Table_QuotePic70.0 % of return ] 12.0%, respectively, from 2016 to 2019. Given the strong new orders inflow and a sizable backlog in orders, we are optimistic about the outlook of the 60.0 Company. We expect sales and earnings to grow by 20.5% / 7.3% / 6.6% and 50.0 证 12.2% / 12.0% / 11.8% from 2017 to 2019, respectively. Our EPS forecasts 40.0 告 from FY17 to FY19 are RMB 0.160, RMB 0.179 and RMB 0.200, respectively. 券 30.0 We initiate our coverage on China Energy Engineering Corp. with a TP 20.0 研 报 of HK$ 1.70 and an investment rating of “Buy”. The TP corresponds to 10.0 究 究 9.0x / 8.1x / 7.2x FY17 to FY19 PER or 0.9x / 0.8x / 0.8x FY17 to FY19 PBR. 0.0 报 研 全球的发电装机容量预计将于 2016 至 2020 年间以 2.3%的年复合增长率发展。全球的累 (10.0) Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 告 计发电装机容量于 2016 年达到了 6,638 吉瓦，并预计将以 2.3%的年复合增长率或每年净 券 HSI China Energy Engineering Corp. 新增 161 吉瓦的速度增加至 2020 年的 7,281 吉瓦。全国在 2016 至 2020 年间的发电装机 [Tab Equity Research Report 增长的年复合增长率为 。 证 5.3% le_I Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 中国能源建设将受益于全球对能源投资的上升以及一带一路国家战略。海外收入于 2014 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 nfo1 至 2016 年间分别贡献了总收入的 12.3% / 14.3% / 14.8%。我们预计海外收入占总收入的 Abs. % (4.2) (6.2) 33.0 电] 比重将于 2017 至 2019 年分别上升至 16.6% / 19.3% / 22.6%或于 2016 至 2019 年间以 绝对变动 % 28.2%的年复合增长发展。各大海外市场将被一带一路国家战略进一步开启。 Rel. % to HS Index (4.7) (9.9) 6.7 力 相对恒指变动 % 设 公司的收入及净利预计将于 2016 至 2019 年间分别以 11.3%和 12.0%的年复合增长率发 Avg. share price(HK$) 1.4 1.4 1.4 平均股价（港元） 展。在强劲的新签订单以及稳健的在手订单下，我们对公司的前景较为乐观。我们预计公 备 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 司在 2017 至 2019 年间的收入及盈利将分别增长 20.5% / 7.3% / 6.6%以及 12.2% / 12.0% 行 / 11.8%。我们 2017 至 2019 年的预测每股净利分别为人民币 0.160，人民币 0.179 以及 业 人民币 。 0.200 我们首予覆盖中国能源建设并给予 1.70 港元的目标价以及“买入”的投资评级。我们的 Electric Sector Equipment 目标价相当于 9.0 倍/ 8.1 倍/ 7.2 倍 2017 年至 2019 年市盈率或 0.9 倍/ 0.8 倍/ 0.8 倍 2017 [Tabl 年至 2019 年市净率。 e_Inf HK) Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE o2 ] 年结Profit] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 3996 (0 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 中 2015A 205,693 4,236 0.192 91.6 6.0 1.418 0.8 0.004 0.4 12.1 2016A 222,171 4,281 0.143 (25.6) 8.6 1.479 0.8 0.030 2.4 9.9 国 2017F 267,699 4,802 0.160 12.1 7.3 1.604 0.7 0.032 2.7 10.4 能中 2018F 287,257 5,379 0.179 12.0 6.5 1.747 0.7 0.036 3.1 10.7 源 外 2019F 306,185 6,014 0.200 11.8 5.8 1.906 0.6 0.040 3.4 11.0 建 运 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 30,020.4 Major shareholder 大股东 Energy China Group - 61.0% 设 Engineering Corp. 输 Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 41,127.9 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 25.1 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 1,072.1 FY17 Net gearing (%) FY17 净负债/股东资金 (%) 83.3 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 1.600 / 0.990 FY17 EV / EBITDA (x) FY17 市值 / EBITDA（x） 6.4 Energy Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. China See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 23 [Table_PageHeader]China Energy Engineering Corp. (03996 HK) ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ TABLE OF CONTENTS 2017 Industry Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 3 Global Power Development Trend ................................................................................................ 3 Power Development Trend in China ............................................................................................. 4 7 November Historical Power Grid Investment in China and Outlook ............................................................... 5 Market for Coal-Fired Power Plant Retrofitting in China ............................................................... 6 Company Analysis .................................................................................................................................. 8 Background of the Company ......................................................................................................... 8 Key Business Segments of China Energy Engineering Corporation ............................................ 9 1) Survey, Design and Consultancy Business .............................................................................. 9 2) Construction and Contracting Business .................................................................................. 10 ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ 3) Equipment Manufacturing Business ....................................................................................... 10 4) Civil Explosives and Cement Production Business ................................................................. 11 HK) 5) Investment and Other Businesses ........................................................................................... 11 Overseas Business ..................................................................................................................... 12 3996 (0 Backlog Orders and New Orders ................................................................................................ 12 Milestone Projects Completed by China Energy Engineering Corporation ................................ 14 能源建设 Financial Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 16 中国 Revenue ...................................................................................................................................... 16 Gross Profit .................................................................................................................................. 17 Operating Profit ........................................................................................................................... 17 Net Profit ...................................................................................................................................... 18 1H17 Operations and Recent Updates ....................................................................................... 19 Energy Engineering Corp. Valuation & Investment Rating ............................................................................................................ 19 China Key Risks ............................................................................................................................................... 20 Financial Statements and Ratios ................................................................................................. 22 Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 23 [Table_PageHeader]China Energy Engineering Corp. (03996 HK) Industry Analysis ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Global Power Development Trend 2017 Global power generation is expected to increase from 23,789 TWh in 2016 to 25,360 TWh in 2020, implying a CAGR of 1.6%. According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), global power generation increased from 20,430 TWh in 2010 to 23,789 TWh in 2016, representing a CAGR of 2.6%, and is expected to further maintain stable growth and climb to 25,360 TWh 7 November in 2020, implying a CAGR of 1.6% from 2016 to 2020. Cumulative installed capacity of global power plants reached 6,638 GW in 2016 and is set to increase to 7,282 GW in 2020, implying a CAGR of 2.3% during the period or net additions of 161 GW per year from 2017 to 2020. Figure-1: Historical & Forecast Global Power Generation Figure-2: Global Installed Capacity of Power Plants 30,000 8,000 7,129 7,282 6,858 7,016 25,032 25,360 6,638 24,186 24,679 7,000 25,000 23,430 23,789 6,383 22,230 22,665 6,026 21,582 5,727 21,130 6,000 5,505 20,430 5,291 20,000 5,065 5,000 ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ 15,000 4,000 GW TWh 3,000 10,000 HK) 2,000 5,000 3996 (0 1,000 - - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 能源建设 Source: EIA, Guotai Junan International. Source: EIA, Guotai Junan International. 中国 Africa, the Middle East, India and Asia (excluding China and India) are expected to drive global growth of new power capacity investment from 2017 to 2020. There is significant discrepancy in the development of power industries between developing nations and developed nations; power construction markets in developing nations in Africa, the Middle East, India and Asia (excluding China and India) still have significant growth potential.
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