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A Study by Società Italiana Di Fisica ENERGY IN ITALY: PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES (1990-2020) a study by Società Italiana di Fisica Società Italiana di Fisica Bologna Copyright © 2008, Società Italiana di Fisica All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner. Translated from the Italian by C. V. Pennison Original title: Energia in Italia: Problemi e prospettive (1990-2020) Società Italiana di Fisica, Bologna Aprile 2008 Produced by Editorial Staff of the Italian Physical Society, Bologna Cover design: Simona Oleandri Published by Società Italiana di Fisica Via Saragozza 12, 40123 Bologna - Italy http://www.sif.it Printed in Italy Printing and binding by Tipografia Compositori, September 2008 Contents FOREWORD p. 7 1. ITALY AND THE ENERGY CHALLENGE 13 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Energy in Italy 1.2.1 The electrical sector 1.3 Greenhouse gas emissions in Italy 1.3.1 The electrical sector 1.4 Italy‘s energy efficiency 2. ENERGY FROM FOSSIL FUELS 23 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Coal 2.3 Oil 2.4 Natural gas 3. WATER POWER 33 3.1 Current status 3.2 Future trends 4. ENERGY FROM GEOTHERMAL SOURCES 35 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Technologies 4.3 The current situation 4.4 Future prospects 4.5 Exploitation of low enthalpy sources 4.6 Conclusions 5. ENERGY FROM BIOMASS 41 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Use of biomass for the production of thermal/electrical energy 5.3 Exploitation of the energy from refuse 5.4 Biofuel production from biomass 5.5 Social and environmental aspects 5.6 The situation in Italy 6. ENERGY FROM NUCLEAR FISSION 55 6.1 Current status and prospects for nuclear fission energy in the world 6.2 A special look at the European Union: energy policy and environmental questions 6.3 Resumption of nuclear power in Italy 6.3.1 The current situation 6.3.2 Italy and the nuclear option 6.4 Prospects and problems for nuclear energy from fission Annexe: Nuclear proliferation 3 7. ENERGY FROM NUCLEAR FUSION 67 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Research into inertial fusion 7.3 Research into magnetic fusion 7.4 The ITER project and the ―broader approach‖ 7.5 Strategy and steps towards commercial fusion 7.6 Research into fusion in Italy 7.7 The sustainability and economics of fusion 7.8 Conclusions 8. SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SOURCES 79 8.1 Photovoltaic energy 8.2 Competitiveness of photovoltaic energy and the current world market 8.3 The Italian situation 8.4 Towards a photovoltaic market freed from the support of incentives 8.5 Mature technologies for the market 8.5.1 Concentration photovoltaics 8.5.2 CdTe thin film in Italy 8.5.3 Forecasts for growth by 2020 9. SOLAR PHOTOTHERMAL SOURCES 93 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Solar thermal power at low temperature 9.3 Solar thermal power at medium to high a temperatures 9.4 Main problems in generating energy with high temperature solar plants 9.5 Two promising types with opposite characteristics 9.5.1 The Archimede project 9.5.2 Compact Linear Fresnel Reflector (CLFR) plants 9.5.3 Market prospects 10. WIND POWER 103 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Evaluation of the potential for wind power in Italy 10.3 Prospects for off-shore wind power 11. ELECTRICAL ENERGY 108 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Consumption and production of electrical energy in Italy 11.3 Italian production plants. Installed power and utilisation factors 11.4 Electrical energy imports 11.5 Comparison of the European generating industry 11.6 Projections of consumption and production up to 2020 11.6.1 Production from renewables 11.6.2 Production from nuclear plants and/or imported nuclear power 11.6.3 Thermoelectric production and general considerations 11.7 Carbon dioxide emissions 11.7.1 The impact of the energy sector in the national context 11.7.2 International comparisons 4 11.7.3 Analysis of CO2 production by the electricity system 11.7.4 Projections for CO2 emissions by 2020 11.8 Research in the electrical sector 12. CO2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE 124 12.1 Introduction 12.2 CO2 capture 12.3 CO2 transport 12.4 CO2 storage 12.5 The research situation in Italy 12.6 Application prospects 13. HYDROGEN AS AN ENERGY VECTOR 129 13.1 Introduction 13.2 Methods of hydrogen production 13.3 Hydrogen storage 13.4 Hydrogen as a fuel 14. EFFICIENCY AND ENERGY SAVING 132 14.1 Introduction 14.2 The evolution of energy intensity 14.3 The potential for reducing consumption 14.4 Technological improvements: factor 4 and beyond 14.5 Energy efficiency policies 14.6 Leading players in the change 14.7 Conclusions 15. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS 143 15.1 Introduction 15.2 The European reference framework 15.3 Projections of energy consumption and production up to 2020 15.3.1 The electrical sector 15.3.2 The transport and heating/cooling sector 15.3 Italy‘s commitments by 2012 and 2020 ANNEXE: THE POSITION PAPER OF THE ITALIAN GOVERNMENT 151 GLOSSARY 153 5 6 Foreword The Italian Physical Society (SIF), partly in answer to an invitation from the European Physical Society (EPS), has decided to publish an analysis of the energy situation in Italy, concentrating mainly on the period between 1990 and 2020. The energy problem is linked to the various energy sources, to energy demand and consumption, which is increasing in its various forms, to the environmental effects generated by energy production, such as soil and atmospheric pollution. The aim of this report is to tackle these problems, as is the duty of every advanced society. Below, as well as analysing the situation, we shall indicate the prospects forecast for Italy. To start with, on a general level, we first recall that the world‘s primary energy consumption in 2006 was 10,878.6 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), distributed as indicated in Table 1 (and shown in Fig. 1) between the various regions of the planet. In the table and figure the percentage contribution of the most heavily used energy sources are given: the various figures show the important role of fossil sources (oil, natural gas and coal), which account for over 85% of use, followed by about 6% of renewable sources (which also include hydroelectricity) and about 6% for nuclear energy. Table 1: World energy consumption in 2006. REGION Total Consumption by energy source Consumption Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Renewable [Mtoe] [Mtoe] [Mtoe] [Mtoe] [Mtoe] [Mtoe] North America 2,803 1,124.6 702.5 611.6 212.3 152.0 Central and South America 528.6 236.5 117.5 21.8 4.9 147.9 Europe-Eurasia 3,027.1 970.1 1,031.7 552.9 287.8 184.6 Middle East 554.2 280.1 260.3 8.9 4.9 Asia-Pacific 3,641.6 1,148.0 394.7 1,792.1 128.2 178.6 Africa 324.1 130.5 68.2 102.8 2.4 20.2 TOTAL 10,878.6 3,889.8 2,574.9 3,090.1 635.6 688.2 Percentage contribution 35.8% 23.7% 28.4% 5.9% 6.3% Source: Bp Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2007). Europe-Eurasia 3027.1 Mtoe North America Meedle East 2803.0 Mtoe 554.2 Mtoe Africa 324.1 Mtoe Asia-Pacific Central & South America 3641.6 Mtoe 528.6 Mtoe Fig. 1: World energy consumption in 2006 [Mtoe] and percentage contributions of sources used. To have an idea of the trends in energy demand over time we show in Fig. 2 the world‘s energy consumption, divided between the various energy sources, from 1850, observing that 7 the demand has grown constantly, with a sharp acceleration starting from the middle of the last century. Fig. 2: World energy consumption trends in the years 1850-2000 (source: Science 309 (2005) 550). The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the United States in its International Energy Outlook 2007 foresaw a growth of 57% in world energy consumption in the period 2004-2030 (see Fig. 3). The increase will be much greater (95%) in the Non-OECD countries1 compared to the rate (24%) in the OECD countries. The total estimated consumption for 2030 is about 18 billion tonnes of oil equivalent. Fig. 3: Forecasts of energy consumption growth [in Gtoe2] over the period 2004-2030 (source: EIA- International Energy Outlook 2007). In the worldwide context Italy plays a role that is marginal and in some ways atypical, since it has favoured natural gas amongst fossil sources, rather than coal, and has outlawed nuclear production (nevertheless, Italy imports energy derived from nuclear fission from 1 Countries that do not belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 2 1 Gtoe= 1 billion toe. 8 France however) (see Fig 4 (a)). Its current overall energy requirement is 2,236 TWh3 (about 2% of world consumption) of which 30.9% is used for transport, 28.3 % for industry and 30.9% for domestic and industrial heating (see Fig. 4 (b)). (a) (b) Fig. 4: (a) Primary energy consumption by source and (b) energy usage in Italy in 2006 (source; EUROSTAT, see also Tab. 1.1.) The community within which Italy operates is the European Union (EU): in Fig. 5 we therefore give, for a useful comparison, the percentage contributions of the various sources to primary consumption (Fig. 5(a)) and to electric energy production (Fig. 5(b)) in the 27 states of the EU and in Italy.
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