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Will the Impact of the 2009 Drought Be Different from 2002?

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Will the Impact of the 2009 Drought Be Different from 2002? COMMENTARY a full-time independent institution that the authority of the Court”, from the defi- Disclosure by New Appointees can methodically, systematically and nition of criminal contempt. This has de- As this goes to print, news has come that transparently go about the job of selecting terred public exposure of corrupt judges, five new judges have been recommended judges of the higher judiciary. and it is certainly not necessary to protect for appointment to the Supreme Court. We also need to get rid of the Veeraswami the honour or dignity of honest judges or Again, as always, the process of selection judgment which restrains criminal inves- of the judiciary. has been done without any transparency. tigation of judges without the prior written The road to securing judicial accounta- Though some of the judges nominated permission of the CJI. This has tied the bility, therefore, is still long and hard. But e njoy excellent reputations, some others hands of investigating agencies from in- proper accountability for such a powerful do not. One does not know how and on vestigating judges of the higher judiciary. and vital organ like the Indian judiciary is what basis the selection has been made. A Judicial Bureau of Investigation under absolutely vital for the survival of rule of The least that needs to be done in this con- an independent Judicial Complaints Com- law and of democracy in this country. The text is to publish their asset declarations at mission should be set up to investigate lessons from the asset disclosure contro- least some time before the appointments complaints against judges. versy are that an organised public cam- are notified. That is the minimum that the We also need to amend the Contempt of paign and galvanised public opinion can people of the country deserve. It is indeed Courts Act to do away with the colonial and sometimes does bring about funda- their fundamental right, declared by the and antiquated “scandalising or lowering mental institutional changes in a society. Supreme Court itself. suffered such a socio-economic drought Will the Impact of the 2009 during 1998-2002; Baluchistan and Sindh during 1997-2002 (ibid). Drought Be Different from 2002? For millennia until the 1960s, a pro- longed meteorological drought readily turned into a hydrological or even a so- Tushaar Shah, Avinash Kishore, Hemant P cio-economic drought in India resulting in famines and mass starvation deaths. A Groundwater, which has emerged ssuming that the overall rainfall drought meant an entire crop year lost. as India’s prime adaptive deficit this year will hover The main kharif crop would of course be mechanism in times of drought, Aaround 20%, will the impacts of lost. Empty tanks and reservoirs would the 2009 drought on Indian agriculture also mean loss of rabi and summer crops. will play a crucial role this year be different from the 2002 and earlier During recent decades, however, Indian since the aquifers were recharged droughts in their scale and severity? We agriculture has responded to droughts in 2006-08. The impact of the think yes; this year’s drought will have differently from the way it used to respond drought of 2009 will therefore significantly less impact on food produc- before, thanks to the spread of ground- tion and the livelihoods of the poor. We water irrigation. be less severe than the drought explain why things may not turn out to be of 2002. Beyond the immediate as bad as the doomsday stories suggest. Production versus Stabilisation response, we need to think Hydrologists categorise droughts into Compared to tanks and surface reservoirs, long term. Instead of pumping four types depending upon the severity of groundwater storage plays a much larger their socio-ecological impact. Mere lack of “stabilisation” role as distinct from the money into dams and canals, precipitation during a period is considered “production” role of irrigation in agricul- Indian agriculture will be better a meteorological drought, which if long- ture. When managed well, groundwater off investing in “groundwater lasting enough turns into an agricultural storage lasts long after all surface storages banking”. This involves storing drought as crops begin to suffer moisture dry up during a drought. This is why, stress. All available water in nearby stor- in the history of Indian agriculture, surplus flood waters in aquifers ages is marshalled to save dying crops. well-digging activity always peaked dur- which can be drawn upon in When water storages themselves dry up ing droughts (Shah 2009). Rapid ground- times of need. for the lack of replenishment, a hydro- water development has many cons; but it logical drought ensues, causing decline in has pros as well. One of these is drought food and fodder production. A succession proofing, especially after a series of of hydrological droughts can create havoc, good monsoons. leave a region’s economy sapped and cause This has been evident in the recent Tushaar Shah ([email protected]), Avinash misery all around. This phase is some- Indian experience. In 1965-66, when rain- Kisore and Hemant P are at the International times referred to as socio-economic drought fall was 20% below normal, India suffered Water Management Institute, Colombo. (IWMI 2005). In recent times, Afghanistan a 19% decline in foodgrain production Economic & Political Weekly EPW september 12, 2009 vol xliv no 37 11 COMMENTARY over the previous year; but then, the None of the conditions that made A pecking order has now emerged in In- groundwater revolution was just begin- 2002-03 a serious drought are present dia with respect to drought-proneness of ning. In 1987-88, in the middle phase of today. The years 2005-06, 2006-07 and different areas. Rainfed agriculture areas the groundwater boom, rainfall once 2007-08 were all above normal monsoon are hit the hardest by a drought. These are again was 17.5% below normal; but this years, when depleted aquifers had time follo wed by areas dependent on tank irri- time, the foodgrain production was down and rainfall to recover. As a result, even if gation. Only well owners have some pro- by just over 2%. Groundwater irrigation 2009 ends up a meteorological drought, it tection in tank commands, these can played a big role in explaining this is unlikely to turn into a hydrological provide a life-saving irrigation. Canal change from the mid-1960s (Gandhi and drought as bad as in 2002 for the country commands under run-of-the river systems Namboodiri 2007). as a whole. Rainfed paddy will be hit hard; are better protected than tank commands But then we never paid much attention but wheat and other crops will suffer less, because of better-recharged aquifers, but to managing groundwater. Reckless ex- especially if increased energy for ground- command areas of reservoir-based irriga- pansion in groundwater irrigation without water irrigation is made available. tion systems are even better off as some of concomitant effort to replenish the resource Groundwater has emerged as India’s the reservoir storage would last even left many aquifers depleted. In 2002-03, prime adaptive mechanism in times of when rivers dry up. India received 22% less than normal rain- drought. Therefore, we need to better un- Dugwell irrigated areas dependent on fall. To add to this, the rainfall was 8% derstand and master the “stabilisation” natural recharge are greatly at risk, but less than normal in 2000-01 and 6% lower role of groundwater. During a drought, those in canal commands are less affe cted in 2001-02. Surface reservoirs were all but groundwater aquifers are doubly hit: there by drought due to continuous aquifer empty; and depleted groundwater storages is less rainfall and little recharge to aqui- recharge. By far the best protected areas had little chance to recover. Conditions fers but there is also additional demand are those irrigated by deep tubewells, were ripe for a meteorological drought to pressure on the resource as farmers strug- especially in canal-recharged areas like turn into a hydrological drought. Little gle to save their crops and livelihoods. upper Punjab and central Gujarat. Equally surprise, then, that in the 2002-03 drought, During a good monsoon, the same factors well protected are regions like Saurashtra farm output fell significantly as in 1966. work in opposite direction. Demand for in Gujarat where dug well irri gation is The value of paddy output declined by 22%; groundwater is less and natural recharge now supported by hundreds of thousands oilseeds by 23.5% and wheat by 9.5%. is more. of check dams and perco lation tanks 12 september 12, 2009 vol xliv no 37 EPW Economic & Political Weekly COMMENTARY constructed by communities with govern- against drought in states like Gujarat than by the needs of the farmers. The ment support over the past two decades and Andhra Pradesh. only storage that can provide some meas- (Shah 2009). These are least affected In many parts of India today, dairy pro- ure of drought proofing is groundwater by a single drought; but even deep tube- duction booms during a drought. During storage. Instead of pumping money on wells may dry up in a succession of the 2002 drought, the value of paddy and dams and canals, Indian agriculture will drought years. oilseeds output fell over 20% and of wheat, be better off investing in “groundwater Hard rock areas of peninsular region – nearly 10%; but the value of livestock and banking”. This involves storing surplus 65% of India’s landmass – are far more milk production grew nearly 3% on an all- flood waters in aquifers which can be dependent on tanks and dug wells which India basis.
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