FAMINE PREVENTION IN INDIA Jean February 1988 This is a revised version of a paper presented at the World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER, Helsinki) in July 1986. The final version is to appear in Dreze, J. and Sen, A. (eds.). Hunger: Economics and Policy (forthcoming, Clarendon Press). I am grateful to WIDER for financial support. DEP No.3 The Development Economics Research Programme January 1988. Suntory-Toyota International Centre for Economics and Related Disciplines 10 Portugal Street London WC2A 2HD Tel : 01-405-7686, ext.3290 2 Acknowledgments Preparing this paper has been for me a marvellous opportunity to benefit from the thoughts, comments and guidance of a very large number of people. For their friendly and patient help, I wish to express my hearty thanks to: 'Ehtisham Ahmad, Harold Alderman, Arjun Appadurai, David Arnold, Kaushik Basu, A.N. Batabyal, Nikilesh Bhattacharya, Crispin Bates, Sulabha Brahme, Robert Chambers, Marty Chen, V.K. Chetty, Stephen Coate, Lucia da Corta, Nigel Crook, Parviz Dabir-Alai, Guvant Desai, Meghnad Desai, V.D. DeiShpande, Steve Devereux, Ajay Dua, Tim Dyson, Hugh Goyder, S. Guhan, Deborah Guz, Barbara Harriss, Judith Heyer, Simon Hunt, N.S. Iyengar, N.S. Jodha, Jane Knight, Gopalakrishna Kumar, Jocelyn Kynch, Peter Lanjouw, Michael Lipton, John Levi, Michelle McAlpin, John Melior, B.S. Minhas, Mark Mullins, Vijay Nayak, Elizabeth Oughton, Kirit Parikh, Pravin Patkar, Jean-Philippe Platteau, Amrita Rangasami, N. P. Rao, J. G. Sastry, John Seaman, Amartya Sen, Kailash Sharma, P.V. Srinivasan, Elizabeth Stamp, Nicholas Stern, K. Subbarao, P. Subramaniam, V. Subramaniam, Peter Svedberg, Jeremy Swift, Martin Ravallion, David Taylor, Suresh Tendulkar, A.M. Vidwans, A. Vaidyanathan, Peter Walker, Tom Walker, and Michael Windey. I owe even more to the many labourers, farmers, and Government officials who helped me during my field enquiries in Maharashtra in 1986. My greatest debt is to Bela Bhatia, not least for reminding me that India's relative success in averting large-scale famines in the recent past should not deflect our attention from the persistent and avoidable sufferings of her people - the need for concern, pressure and action remains as great as ever. 3 CONTENTS Introduction Page no. 4 1. The Emergence of India's Famine Relief System. 7 1.1. Famines in 19th Century India. 7 1.2. Early Famine Relief Efforts. 12 1.3. The Famine Codes and their Basic Principles. 21 1.4. Modern Developments. 34 2. Food Crises in India after Independence. 38 2.1. The Reality and Nature of Recent Food Crises. 38 2.2. Famine Averted in 1966-67: A Reassessment. 48 3. A Case Study: The Maharashtra Drought of 1970-73. 67 3.1. Background and Impact of the Drought. 68 3.2. Production, Availability and Consumption. 71 3.3. The Entitlement Process. 84 3.4. Public Works, Public Pressure and Public Distribution. 91 3.5 Conelusion. 101 Lessons and Questions from the Indian Experience. 101 Summary and Conclusions. 110 Appendix A: Mortality Statistics for Bihar, 1966-67. 113 Appendix B: Food Consumption and Landholding Size in Drought and Non-Drought Years. 117 Appendix C: Income and Expenditure in Drought and Non-Drought Years. 122 References. 130 4 FAMINE PREVENTION IN INDIA Introduction India's record with famine prevention in recent decades has often been presented as a highly impressive one, and no few attempts have been made at drawing the possible lessons arising from her felicitous experience. This alleged success arguably needs to be put in proper perspective, and it has to be remembered that the various influences which combine to ensure the sustenance of the people in times of crisis do little more than keep them barely alive. As this paper comes to completion, a frightening drought is hitting large parts of India, and while large-scale starvation will no doubt be averted once again, the heart sinks at the thought of the hardships endured by the people at such times. This being said, if India's recent "success" in preventing mass starvation is hardly a momentous achievement, it still remains a creditable one against the background of continuing failures elsewhere. While the "lessons from India" are by no means easy to draw, the rich experience of this country with famine prevention strategies remains well worth scrutinizing. Why, then, has India known no major famine since Independence? It is tempting to attribute her relative success in this area to a steady improvement in food production. A close look at the facts, however, quickly reveals the inadequacy of this explanation. Indeed, the period during which the frequency of famines dramatically decreased in India (the first half of this century) was precisely one of steadily declining food production per head. Since Independence in 1947, total food output has admittedly grown at a healthy rate, but per capita food production levels have not increased significantly; they appear, in any case, to remain lower than late 19th century levels, and also lower than per capita food output levels in many countries affected by famines today. Moreover, the increase of production has resulted first and foremost in the reduction of imports and 5 the accumulation of increasingly large stocks, so that the net availability of food has stayed remarkably stagnant over the last 30 years. Last but not least, almost every year large and heavily populated parts of India suffer from devastating droughts which, through the "entitlement failures" they threaten to precipitate, remain quite capable of causing large-scale starvation. It is more plausible to attribute the disappearance of mass starvation in India during recent decades to the overall evolution of the economy. Sources of livelihood for the rural population are increasingly diversified, and in some areas at least the rapid advance of productivity in agriculture has substantially raised general living standards and further reduced the insecurity of rural life. The Government's general food policy, though far from impervious to criticism, has largely succeeded in stabilizing food prices and reducing the correlation betweeen consumption and production. In many States a wide array of more or less successful income support schemes provides a measure of protection against destitution to poor households, and by some accounts at least a discernible trend towards decreasing poverty has emerged since the nightmare of the mid-sixties. So goes the argument. But even this optimistic interpretation of recent changes in economic opportunities and policies does not seem to be quite enough to account for the prevention of famines. In the non-irrigated, semi-arid parts of India the stagnation or near-stagnation of yields, population pressure and the increasing frequency of droughts keep the rural population at the mercy of the monsoon; the vulnerability of impoverished classes (particularly agricultural labourers) remains an extreme one, and the need persists for a very extensive and expensive relief system. When food crises have assumed unusual proportions (as in 1966-67, 1972-73, 1979-80 and 1985- 87), this relief system has been heavily taxed, and has played an undeniable and crucial role in averting large-scale starvation. This paper stresses the role played by famine relief policies in ensuring the prevention of famines in India in the last few decades. 6 This enquiry will inevitably involve a brief excursion into the historical origins of India's relief policies as they exist today. This is the theme of Section 1, where attention is drawn particularly to the role and content of the Famine Codes promulgated by the British Administration towards the end of the 19th century. Section 2 takes a closer look at the anatomy of food entitlement crises in India since Independence. On the basis of a tentative comparison between India and the Sahel, as well as of a reassessment of crisis management in the State of Bihar in 1966-67, India's continued exposure to famine is underlined. The effectiveness of relief policies in dealing with this threat is illustrated in Section 3, which is devoted to a detailed case study of famine prevention in Maharashtra during the devastating drought of 1970-73. This example, it must be emphasized at the outset, is not a representative one, and undoubtedly counts among the most successful experiments of this kind. The episode is, nevertheless, well worth exploring, partly because it has the merit of exhibiting the potential of India's relief system, and partly because it is extremely well documented and provides rich material for an empirical examination of many important problems connected with famine relief. Close attention will be paid, inter alia, to the familiar issues of early warning, food availability, private trade, public distribution, cash relief, targeting mechanisms, employment programmes, cost-effectiveness and political pressure. Section 4 contains some very preliminary reflections on the relevance of the Indian experience for famine prevention policies elsewhere (with special reference to Africa). A summary of the findings, and some concluding remarks, are contained in the final Section. 7 1. The Emergence of India's Famine Relief System The history of famine relief in India is a fascinating area of research, and deserves to elicit keen interest on the part of all those who concern themselves with the problem of famine in the modern world - scholars and practitioners alike. It is beyond the scope of this paper to review this history in any depth, or to contribute fresh insights to it. There are, in any case, good books on the subject. My wish here is only to provide a selective account of the emergence of a famine relief system in India, as a background for our subsequent enquiries. 1.1. Famines in 19th Century India Numerous famines occurred in India throughout the 19th century, and their victims were often counted in millions.