The spatial structure of employment and its impacts on the journey to work in the Jakarta Metropolitan Area: a Southeast Asian Extended Metropolitan Region (EMR) perspective by Ikhwan Hakim Submitted to the Graduate Research School of The University of New South Wales in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2009 Abstract This thesis is developed upon inquires on urban spatial structure of Southeast Asian extended metropolitan region (EMR) and its impacts on travel. Literature suggests that Southeast Asian EMRs exhibit more complex spatial configuration than those of developed cities and suffer severely from a wide range of sustainability problems. While efforts in promoting transport sustainability in the developed world have included policy measures involving urban spatial structure and its physical features as a consequence of the understanding on strong link between land use and transport, there has been lack of understandings on the spatial structure in major cities in Southeast Asia. Exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) is adopted for identification of important components of the spatial structure of employment in the Jakarta Metropolitan Area (JMA). The approach has been specifically designed in order to extract clusters as suggested in the Southeast Asian EMR concept. It is found that the spatial structure of employment in the JMA consists of the following major components: the urban core of Jakarta; the single dominant and expanded regional CBD within the urban core of Jakarta; manufacturing corridors that are largely follow toll roads radiating out of the urban core; local government regions that in general have not been developed into substantial sub-centres; desakota areas overlapping the manufacturing corridors and the agricultural areas; and portions of agricultural areas in the outer parts of Bekasi, Bogor and Tangerang regencies. The result shows that spatial structure of JMA conforms to the Southeast Asian EMR concept rather than the monocentric, polycentric or sprawl patterns debated for the case of developed cities. Commuting impacts of the identified spatial structure of employment and its physical features are investigated using the desireline analysis, home-to-work trip pattern comparisons (ANOVA) by the employment clusters, and ordinary linear regression and logistic regression models. It is found that the spatial structure ii identified and its physical features have significant associations to variations in the pattern of commuting across the region. The physical features of the employment spatial structure identified include important policy sensitive variables such as job density, job to household ratio, land use diversity and job accessibility. Policy implications of the findings are developed and centred on recommending both the spatial structure of employment and its physical characteristics that promote more sustainable transport in the JMA. iii Contents Abstract ii List of Figures viii List of Tables xi Acknowledgements xiii Abbreviations xiv 1 Introduction 1 Background to the study 1 Aim, study area and scope of the thesis 4 Research questions 6 Overview and structure of the thesis 8 2 Urban spatial structure and travel impacts: placing the Southeast Asian EMR in context 12 Introduction 12 Globalisation and urbanisation in the Asia-Pacific: background 13 Asia-Pacific globalisation 13 Urbanisation impacts of globalisation 18 Urban spatial structure and travel impacts: an overview on theories and empirical findings 20 Urbanisation and urban spatial structure 20 Methodologies in identifying urban spatial structure 26 Sustainability issues and travel 28 Travel impacts of urban spatial structure 31 The Southeast Asian Extended Metropolitan Region 37 Continuation of urbanisation trends 37 Conception and characteristics of the Southeast Asian EMR 38 Sustainability problems facing the Southeast Asian EMRs 45 Probing the urban spatial structure of the Southeast Asian EMRs 50 Conclusions 57 iv 3 Jakarta Metropolitan Area: urban evolution and planning 59 Introduction 59 Recent figures and trends 60 Administrative boundary 60 Economic activities 61 Gross regional domestic product 61 Foreign investments and trade 63 Labour force 64 Population and housing 67 Land use and transport 70 Land use and land conversion 70 Transport system and travel 73 From Sunda Kelapa to JABODETABEK: an overview of urban evolution and planning 75 Pre-colonial times and company town: up to 1800 75 Colonial capital: 1800s to 1950s 77 Early independence: 1950s to 1970s 79 Globalisation era: 1970s to present 82 JMDP and JABOTABEK Structure Plan 2005 82 JMDPR and the economic crisis 91 The post-crisis and JABODETABEKPUNJUR 97 Conclusions 102 4 Research design 104 Introduction 104 Formulation of research questions 104 Data sources 106 Home interview survey and population census 106 GIS layers 110 Zoning system 110 Transport network 113 Land use related data 114 Methods 117 The spatial structure of employment 117 Identification of clusters 117 Spatial impacts 124 v Characteristics of the components of the spatial structure of employment 125 Travel dimensions and links with the spatial structure and its physical features 128 Flow of the empirical analysis 130 Conclusions 132 5 Spatial structure of employment in the JMA: an EMR perspective 133 Introduction 133 Employment profiles within the JMA 134 Identification of employment clusters 137 Co-location of job industries 137 Major employment clusters 140 Factor 1 141 Factor 2 143 Factor 3 144 Factor 4 146 Factor 5 147 Factor 6 149 Probing desakota 151 Job density and planned sub-centres: a LISA approach 153 The overall spatial structure of employment 155 Features and spatial impacts of employment clusters 158 Spatial characteristics of employment clusters 158 Density variables 158 Job diversity 162 Access to transport facilities and job accessibility 165 Spatial impacts 169 Weighted central feature 169 The regional CBD and employment density 171 Urban cores and negative population growth 172 The east-west axis and high population growth 174 Manufacturing corridors and urban-rural mix 178 Conclusions 179 6 Journey to work impacts of the JMA’s spatial structure of employment and its physical features 182 vi Introduction 182 Journey to work and the degree of spatial interaction 183 Variations in journey to work patterns 193 Distance travelled 193 Time travelled 200 Travel mode 206 Measure of “local trips”: share of trips by distance by travel mode 209 The influence of physical features 212 Travel dimensions, explanatory variables and model estimation 212 Summary of implications of the models estimations 217 Transport sustainability and policy implications 221 Conclusions 226 7 Conclusions 227 Thesis summary and conclusions 227 Limitation of the thesis and further research 231 References 233 Appendix 1 Appendix 2 vii List of Figures 1.1 Structure of the thesis 11 2.1 The world’s urban and rural population, 1950-2025 14 2.2 The flying geese pattern of shifts in comparative advantage in Asia Pacific 17 2.3 Foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows in South-Eastern and Eastern Asia, 1970-2007 18 2.4 Emerging spatial network of development in Pacific Asia 20 2.5 A general framework of urbanisation processes 21 2.6 Bid-rent functions in a largely monocentric city 23 2.7 Land-use – transport feedback cycle 33 2.8 Foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows in the four Southeast Asian countries, 1970-2007 37 2.9 Spatial configuration of a hypothetical Asian country 40 2.10 Core areas in Asia 41 2.11 Schematic changes in transport networks at different phases of colonisation process 44 2.12 Delineation of (a) Bangkok, (b) Jakarta and (c) Manila EMRs into three zones 53 2.13 Spatial configuration of an Asian mega-urban region (ca. 2000) 57 3.1 Cities and regencies within the Jakarta Metropolitan Area 61 3.2 FDI approval in JMA, 1990-2007 63 3.3 Population growth by sub-region in JMA, 1961-2000 67 3.4 Population density distribution by kelurahan in JMA, 2000 69 3.5 Planned housing, kampung and real estate in JMA, 2000 70 3.6 Land use changes in selected surveyed areas in JMA, 1985-2000 71 3.7 Land use in JMA, 2000 72 3.8 Main transport network in JMA, 2008 74 3.9 Inner city railway network in Batavia and Weltevreden, 1938 79 3.10 Thamrin corridor at the end of 1970s 83 3.11 “Bundled deconcentration” alternatives for JMA 85 3.12 JMDP’s five potential development zones 86 3.13 Reliance on road based transport network in JMA as planned in 1985 89 viii 3.14 Total office supply in the Jakarta’s CBD, 1982-1992 91 3.15 Land subsidence in Jakarta within 1974/78 to 1989/90 period 93 3.16 JMDPR’s three alternative development paradigms for JMA 95 3.17 Recommended urban centres in JMA in 2010 96 3.18 Trunk transport system in JMA as recommended in JMDPR 97 3.19 Development zoning in JABODETABEKPUNJUR 100 3.20 Transport network for JABODETABEKPUNJUR 101 4.1 Kecamatan, kelurahan and desa zoning system in JMA 111 4.2 Traffic Analysis Zone system 112 4.3 Railway network and toll road network in JMA 114 4.4 Land use survey area conducted under SITRAMP study in 2000 116 4.5 Process of the empirical analysis 131 5.1 The number of jobs in cities and regencies by major type of industry within the JMA, 2002 137 5.2 Scree plot of factor analysis 138 5.3 Significant local Getis-Ord statistic of (a) Factor 1; (b) Factor 2; (c) Factor 3; (d) Factor 4; (e) Factor 5; and (f) Factor 6 141 5.4 Factor 1 142 5.5 Factor 2 144 5.6 Factor 3 145 5.7 Factor 4 147 5.8 Factor 5 148 5.9 Factor