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Emerging Trends in Real Estate®2020 Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2020 Highlights What are the best bets for investment and devel- • Tells you what to expect and what the expected op ment in 2020? Based on insights from a select best opportunities are. group of the most influential and experienced ULI members, this forecast will give you a heads-up • Elaborates on trends in the capital markets, on where to invest, which sectors and markets including sources and flows of equity and offer the best prospects, and trends in the capital debt capital. markets that will affect real estate. A joint under- • Indicates which property sectors offer taking of PwC and ULI, this 41st edition of Emerging opportunities and which ones to avoid. Trends is the forecast that you can count on for no-nonsense, expert insight. • Provides rankings and assessments of a variety of specialty property types. ULI is the largest network of cross-disciplinary • Describes the impact of social and geopolitical real estate and land use experts who lead the trends on real estate. future of urban development and create thriving communities around the globe. As a ULI member, • Explains how locational preferences are changing. you can connect with members around the world in • Elucidates the increasingly important intersection the Member Directory (members.uli.org), find ULI of real estate and technology. opportunities to lead and volunteer on Navigator (navigator.uli.org), and explore our latest research and best practices on Knowledge Finder, including all the Emerging Trends in Real Estate® reports published since 2003. Visit uli.org/join to learn more about our exclusive member benefits. Emerging Trends in Real Estate® U.S. $49.95 ISBN 978-0-87420-438-4 United States and Canada 2020 54995 9 780874 204384 www.uli.org www.pwc.com Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2020 Contents 1 Notice to Readers 48 Chapter 3 Property Type Outlook 49 Industrial 3 Chapter 1 Shifting Focus to the Decade Ahead 53 Apartments 4 Easing On Down the Road 62 Single-Family Homes 6 The Siren Call of TINA 65 Office 10 A New Menu for Markets 69 Retail 11 Housing: The Great Unraveling 73 Hotels 13 A Community State of Mind 14 Hipsturbia 76 Chapter 4 Emerging Trends in Canadian 15 Boomers and Beyond: Let’s Think This Through Real Estate 17 ESG: A Sustainable Trend 76 Putting Customers at the Heart of Reimagined 19 March of Technology: The What and When Spaces of Disruption 77 Powering Digital Transformation through Proptech 21 Infrastructure: Washington Fumbles; States and 79 Navigating Policy and Geopolitical Uncertainty Cities Pick Up the Ball 81 Tackling Emerging Business Challenges 83 Property Type Outlook 23 Chapter 2 Markets to Watch 87 Markets to Watch 23 Top 20 Markets for 2020: A Tight Race toward 91 Expected Best Bets in 2020 the Top 31 Markets That Are Major Capital Magnets 96 Interviewees 33 Stalwarts, Surprises, and Determined Competitors 36 Markets Aligning with Expectations 38 Treasures Ripe for Discovery? 41 Potpourri: Thrifty Choices, Boutiques, and Special Situations Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2020 i Editorial Leadership Team Emerging Trends Chairs PwC Advisers and Contributing Researchers Mitchell M. Roschelle, PwC Abhi Jain Francis Miu* Matthew Manza W. Edward Walter, Urban Land Institute Aki Dellaportas François Berthiaume* Maxime Lessard* Authors Alex Howieson* Fred Cassano* Megan Andrews Hugh F. Kelly Ali Abbas* Frédéric Lepage* Miranda Hardy* Anita Kramer Alpa Patel* Gary Meltzer Mori Contreras Andrew Warren Ami Patel* Gimena de Buen* Munezeh Wald Amy Brohman* Gina Mandarino* Nadia King* Authors, Chapter 3: Property Type Outlook Amy Matula Glenn Kauth* Nadja Ibrahim* Timothy Corzine, Retail Andrew Alperstein Harry de Haas* Natalie Cheng* Melinda McLaughlin, Industrial Andrew Nickel* Heather Lashway Nick Ethier* John McManus, Apartments and Single-Family Homes Andrew Popert* Helen Zarokostas* Nicole Stroud Janet Pogue McLaurin, Office Anthony Di Nuzzo* Howard Quon* Patricia Perruzza* Mary Sullivan, Hotels Ashley Somchanh* Howard Ro Paul Mehlman Contributors Ashley Yanke* Ian Gunn* Peter Harris* Katharine Burgess Avery Munger Ian Nelson Philippe Pourreaux* John Chang Aynsley Price* Ira Shaw Qiyan Mai Elizabeth Foster Brett Matzek Isabelle Morgan Rachel Klein Beth Burnham Mace Brian Ness Jacqueline Kelly Rahim Lallani* Molly McCabe Bryan Allsopp* Jacqueline Kinneary Rajen Shah* Ryan Severino Bud Thomas Jasen Kwong* Rajveer Hundal* Carl Whitaker Calen Byers Jason Hirschfeld Ray Witkos Senior Advisers Carly Stallwood* Jason Ho* Rebecca Lyons* Carmelo Scali* Jason Pagliaro* Renee Sarria R. Byron Carlock Jr., PwC Miriam Gurza, PwC, Canada Cathy Helmbrecht Jeremy Lewis Ricardo Ruiz Frank Magliocco, PwC, Canada Charlene Rodenhiser* Jesse Rosenstock Richard Fournier Christopher J. Potter, PwC, Canada Charles Campany Joannie Brulotte* Rick Barnay* Nick Way, PwC Chris Dietrick John Bunting* Rick Munn Steven Weisenburger, PwC Chris Vangou* John Crossman Rob Sciaudone Christian Sedor John Rosano Ron Bidulka* ULI Editorial and Production Staff Christina Howton* John Satelmajer Ron Walsh* James A. Mulligan, Senior Editor Christina Louie Johnny Cannon* Rosanna Musto* David James Rose, Managing Editor/Manuscript Editor Christine Lam* Jonathan Osten* Roxanne Carrier* Brandon Weil, Creative Director/Cover Designer Christopher Bailey Joon Chan* Ryan Dumais Deanna Pineda, Muse Advertising Design, Designer Christopher Mill Jordan Bennett* Sabrina Fitzgerald* Craig Chapman, Senior Director, Publishing Operations Court Maton Joseph H. Schechter Sam Melehani Owen Benge, Senior Associate, Capital Markets and Real Estate Courtney McNeil Joseph Moyer* Santino Gurreri* Payton Chung, Director, Capital Markets and Real Estate Curtis Gagne* Joshua Beaver* Scott Williamson Jacob Hite, Intern, Capital Markets and Real Estate Dan Ryan Karin Coetzee Sean Bailey* Dana Miccio Katelyn Weiss Sergio Lozano Emerging Trends in Real Estate® is a trademark of PwC and is regis- Daniel D’Archivio* Kelsey McLeod* Spyros Stathonikos* tered in the United States and other countries. All rights reserved. Danielle Desjardins* Ken Griffin* Stephen Crisafulli At PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important Darren Speake* Ken Su* Steve Baker problems. PwC is a network of firms in 158 countries with more than David Baldwin Keri Zader Steve Tyler 250,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, David Baranick Kevin Fossee Steven Tirado advisory, and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to David Seaman Kevin Koons Tanya Hill-Larivière* you by visiting us at www.pwc.com. David Swerling Kevin Ng* Tara Jangle © 2019 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the U.S. member firm David Voss Kristen Conner Thomas Knox or one of its subsidiaries or affiliates, and may sometimes refer to the David Whiteley* Kristina Derek* Thomas Kozak PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see Dheeraj Bisla* Lanie Potgieter Tim Bodner www.pwc.com/structure for further details. Dillon White Laura Eldridge* Tom Knox © August 2019 by PwC and the Urban Land Institute. Douglas Struckman Leah Gates* Tom Wilkin Printed in the United States of America. All rights reserved. No part Dylan Anderson Leah Waldrum Tressa Teranishi* of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means, Dylan Shuff Lee Overstreet Trevor Toombs* electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by Ed Faccio Libarid Guluzian* Warren Marr any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission Elliot Kung Lori Watson* Wendi Pope* of the publisher. Emily Pillars Lori-Ann Beausoleil* Yousuf Abbasi Recommended bibliographic listing: Erin MacDonald Macy Anderson Zac Konings* PwC and the Urban Land Institute: Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Ernie Hudson* Mais Jarjour-Ouzon Zoe Funk 2020. Washington, D.C.: PwC and the Urban Land Institute, 2019. Eugene M. Chan Matt Manza Evan Cohen Matthew Rosenberg *Canada-based. ISBN: 978-0-87420-438-4 ii Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2020 Notice to Readers Emerging Trends in Real Estate® is a trends and forecast publication now in its 41st edition, and is one of the most highly regarded and widely read forecast reports in the real estate industry. Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2020, undertaken jointly by PwC and the Urban Land Institute, provides an outlook on real estate investment and devel- opment trends, real estate finance and capital markets, property sectors, metropolitan areas, and other real estate issues throughout the United States and Canada. Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2020 reflects the views of individuals who completed surveys or were interviewed as a part of the research process for this report. The views expressed herein, including all comments appearing in quotes, are obtained exclusively from these surveys and interviews and do not express the opinions of either PwC or ULI. Interviewees and survey participants represent a wide range of indus- try experts, including investors, fund managers, developers, property companies, lenders, brokers, advisers, and consultants. ULI and PwC researchers personally inter- viewed 750 individuals, and survey responses were received from more than 1,500 individuals, whose company affiliations are broken down below: Private property owner or commercial real estate developer: 27.6% Real estate advisory or service firm: 23.6% Homebuilder or residential land developer: 11.9% Private equity real estate investor: 11.3% Bank lender: 6.5% Investment manager/adviser: 6.5% Equity REIT or publicly listed real estate property company: 3.9% Institutional equity investor: 1.8% Private REIT or nontraded real estate property company: 1.7% Institutional lender: 1.0% Mortgage REIT: 0.9% Real estate debt investor: 0.8% Securitized lender: 0.7% Other entity: 1.8% Throughout this publication, the views of interviewees and/or survey respondents have been presented as direct quotations from the participant without name-specific attribution to any particular participant. A list of the interview participants in this year’s study who chose to be identified appears at the end of this report, but it should be noted that all interviewees are given the option to remain anonymous regarding their participation.
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