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Central and Eastern Europe Development Outlook After the Coronavirus Pandemic
CHINA-CEE INSTITUTE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK AFTER THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC Editor in Chief: Dr. Chen Xin Published by: China-CEE Institute Nonprofit Ltd. Telephone: +36-1-5858-690 E-mail: [email protected] Webpage: www.china-cee.eu Address: 1052, Budapest, Petőfi Sándor utca 11. Chief Editor: Dr. Chen Xin ISSN: 978-615-6124-29-6 Cover design: PONT co.lab Copyright: China-CEE Institute Nonprofit Ltd. The reproduction of the study or parts of the study are prohibited. The findings of the study may only be cited if the source is acknowledged. Central and Eastern Europe Development Outlook after the Coronavirus Pandemic Chief Editor: Dr. Chen Xin CHINA-CEE INSTITUTE Budapest, October 2020 Content Preface ............................................................................................................ 5 Part I POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK ..................................... 7 Albanian politics in post-pandemic era: reshuffling influence and preparing for the next elections .............................................................................................. 8 BiH political outlook after the COVID-19 pandemic ...................................... 13 Bulgarian Political Development Outlook in Post-Pandemic Era ..................... 18 Forecast of Croatian Political Events after the COVID-19 .............................. 25 Czech Political Outlook for the Post-Crisis Period .......................................... 30 Estonian political outlook after the pandemic: Are we there yet? ................... -
Doing Business Guide in EMEIA: Payroll Operations
Payroll Operations in Europe, the Middle East, India and Africa — essential compliance and reporting considerations Introduction This booklet contains market-by-market newly established, stand-alone guidance1 on key HR payroll matters to operations. Where the EMEIA operation be considered as you expand your is a regional headquarters or a holding operations across EMEIA. company for foreign subsidiaries, or if In our experience, careful consideration there are existing operations in EMEIA, of these matters at the outset is the other considerations must be taken into most effective way of avoiding any account. issues and ensuring an optimal setup In all situations, we recommend that you structure of your business and seek specific professional advice from employees in new EMEIA markets. the contacts listed in each chapter. They This booklet is general in nature and not will take into consideration your specific to be relied on as professional advice. circumstances and objectives. Furthermore, the chapters focus on NB: This guide will work best with Adobe Acrobat Pro. 1 This information was compiled in July 2019. 2 Payroll Operations in Europe, the Middle East, India and Africa — essential compliance and reporting considerations EY contacts Payroll Operate Services Sheri Sullivan Michael Van Den Brand EY Global Payroll Operate Leader EY EMEIA Payroll Operate Leader T: +17168435050 T: +34 933 666 340 E: [email protected] E: [email protected] Country Payroll leader Email address Armenia Kamo Karapetyan [email protected] -
Croatia Update May 2020
CROATIA UPDATE MAY 2020 As Croatia gradually relaxed No virus spread has been detected Asylum procedure has resumed in COVID-19 related restrictions, among the UNHCR persons of the pre-pandemic manner. UNHCR refugees and asylum-seekers concern in Croatia. Situation in the and its partners continue to adapt continued to have access to health two Reception Centers for Asylum their activities as per the advice services in a non-discriminatory Seekers remain calm and safe. from health authorities. manner. General overview In the first four months of 2020, MoI registered 529 asylum seekers (top three countries of origin: Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria). In the same period, 14 people were granted refugee status (Iraq, Iran, Syria and one stateless). As at end May, 382 asylum seekers have been accommodated in the two Reception Centers for Asylum Seekers (RCAS) in Zagreb and Kutina. Of those, 41 per cent are children, 37 per cent men and 22 per cent women, with top three countries of origin: Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. So far in 2020, 14 families (22 people) were provided with housing solutions under the Regional Housing Programme-RHP. Total number of beneficiaries of RHP assistance by 16 April 2020 in Croatia stands at 315 families (749 people). Reception Centers for Asylum Seekers Asylum Procedure After almost two months of limited activities and 14- As of 18 May, the refugee status determination day shifts in the RCAS in Zagreb and Kutina, Ministry of procedure has been resumed at all levels in the pre- Interior, Croatian Red Cross and Medicines du Monde, pandemic manner, including interviews conducted by as essential service providers in the centers resumed the Ministry of Interior at first instance, as well as their regular work on 11 May. -
Google Trends As a Method to Predict New COVID-19 Cases and Socio-Psychological Consequences of the Pandemic
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Jurić, Tado Article — Published Version Google Trends as a Method to Predict New COVID-19 Cases and Socio-Psychological Consequences of the Pandemic Athens Journal of Mediterranean Studies Suggested Citation: Jurić, Tado (2021) : Google Trends as a Method to Predict New COVID-19 Cases and Socio-Psychological Consequences of the Pandemic, Athens Journal of Mediterranean Studies, ISSN 2407-9480, Athens Institute for Education and Research, Athens, Vol. 7, Iss. forthcoming, https://www.athensjournals.gr/mediterranean/2021-4210-AJMS-Juric-05.pdf This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/235602 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available -
The Impact of China's Rise on Eu Foreign Policy Cohesion
THE IMPACT OF CHINA’S RISE ON EU FOREIGN POLICY COHESION By Dominik Hertlik Submitted to Central European University Department of International Relations In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations Supervisor: Dr. Daniel Izsak CEU eTD Collection Budapest, Hungary Word count: 14.299 2020 Abstract China’s rise and the consequences resulting from it have an effect on countries around the world. Its increasingly close cooperation with countries in Central and Eastern Europe (as well as Greece) has led to numerous EU member states (EUMS) pursuing foreign policies that are oftentimes more aligned with the interests of the Chinese leadership than the overall EU’s interests and values. The Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) of the EU is susceptible to such interference as its decisions are based on unanimity. Building up on this, this thesis argues that even though previous literature suggests that normative socialisation processes within CFSP policymaking and the consequent primacy of consensus seeking during negotiations have made the use of vetoes virtually insignificant, due to the increasing political and economic influence of China on some EUMS the importance of vetoes is rising again. Benefits of maintaining amicable relations to China might appear so attractive to some EUMS that in the light of China’s rise they are once again more prone to vetoing certain EU-level decisions critical of Beijing. The benefits held out in prospect vary and can be mostly economic, but also of political or ideological use. Costs of vetoing (besides from the reputational loss) seem to be virtually non-existent. -
Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap
POLICY CARNEGIE BRIEF ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE 87 A p r i l 2 0 1 0 Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap THOMAS DE WAA l Senior Associate, Russia and Eurasia Program S u m m a r y n Armenia and Turkey have embarked on a historic normalization process, but it is now in trouble and the United States needs to take a lead in rescuing it. n If Armenia and Turkey succeed in opening their closed border it will transform the South Caucasus region. But Azerbaijan, Turkey’s ally and the losing side to Armenia in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, has understandable fears. The international community must invest more resources in resolving the Karabakh conflict and breaking the regional deadlock it has created. n The annual debate over the use of the word genocide to describe the fate of the Ottoman Armenians in 1915 has turned into an ugly bargaining process. It is time to take a longer view. President Obama should look ahead to the centenary of the tragedy in 2015 and encourage Turks to take part in commemorating the occasion. THE ArMENiA–TUrKEY the House International Affairs Committee prOTOCOlS voted on March 4 to call the 1915 killings In October 2009 Armenia and Turkey began genocide, causing Turkey to recall its ambas- a historic rapprochement, signing two pro- sador from Washington. Turkey’s outspoken tocols on normalizing their relations that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo˘gan fur- showed them a way to escape their tragic ther undermined hopes for normalization past. In 2010, the process has run into trou- in a March 17 BBC interview in which he ble. -
Energy-Efficien Buildings in Armenia: a Roadmap
Energy-Efficient Buildings in Armenia: A Roadmap Insights and pathways for better buildings 2020-2040 Energy-Efficient Buildings in Armenia: A Roadmap Insights and pathways for better buildings 2020-2040 Energy-Efficient Buildings in Armenia: A Roadmap Table of contents Table of contents Executive summary ........................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Status and key indicators .................................................................................................................. 6 Influencing factors ............................................................................................................................. 9 Deploying efficient technologies ...................................................................................................... 15 Getting future-ready......................................................................................................................... 25 Towards a roadmap for Armenia’s buildings ................................................................................... 29 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 35 References and resources ............................................................................................................. -
Public Opinion Survey: Residents of Armenia
Public Opinion Survey: Residents of Armenia February 2021 Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of “International Republican Institute’s” Center for Insights in Survey Research by Breavis (represented by IPSC LLC). • Data was collected throughout Armenia between February 8 and February 16, 2021, through phone interviews, with respondents selected by random digit dialing (RDD) probability sampling of mobile phone numbers. • The sample consisted of 1,510 permanent residents of Armenia aged 18 and older. It is representative of the population with access to a mobile phone, which excludes approximately 1.2 percent of adults. • Sampling frame: Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia. Weighting: Data weighted for 11 regional groups, age, gender and community type. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.5 points for the full sample. • The response rate was 26 percent which is similar to the surveys conducted in August-September 2020. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development. 2 Weighted (Disaggregated) Bases Disaggregate Disaggregation Category Base Share 18-35 years old n=563 37% Age groups 36-55 years old n=505 34% 56+ years old n=442 29% Male n=689 46% Gender Female n=821 54% Yerevan n=559 37% Community type Urban n=413 27% Rural n=538 36% Primary or secondary n=537 36% Education Vocational n=307 20% Higher n=665 44% Single n=293 19% Marital status Married n=1,059 70% Widowed or divorced n=155 10% Up -
'Populism': Armenia's “Velvet Revolution”
The Armenian Studies Program and the Institute of Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies present the 42nd Educator Outreach Conference Authoritarianism, Democratization, and ‘Populism’: Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution” in Perspective Saturday, May 1, 2021 Livestream on YouTube University of California, Berkeley From end March to early May 2018, a series of peaceful protests and demonstration led to the resignation of Prime Minister (PM) Serzh Sargsyan, whom the then ruling Republican Party he chaired had newly nominated for that office. Having completed his two terms as President, from 2008 to 2018, Serzh Sargsyan’s attempt to remain in power became obvious. This attempt also made it evident that the amended 2015 Constitution, which he had promoted to invigorate democratization by shifting power from the office of the President to the Parliament and the office of the Prime Minister, was merely a ploy to extend his rule. It was also the proverbial “last straw that broke the camel’s back.” A kleptocratic, semi-authoritarian regime that appeared to control all the levers of power and of the economy suddenly, and unexpectedly, collapsed. This regime change—which the leader of the protests and incoming new prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, referred to as a “Velvet Revolution”—was peaceful, something unusual for a post-Soviet republic. Subsequent parliamentary elections brought to power a new generation, younger deputies mostly between the ages of twenty-five to forty. A similar generation change also characterized the formation of the government. Youth, however, also means inexperience as almost none of the new deputies and ministers had held any political position in the past. -
Armenia-Azerbaijan Wars: Looking for Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Armenia‐Azerbaijan Wars: Looking for Nagorno‐Karabakh Conflict Resolution Air University Advanced Research Program Next Generation Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance Aigerim T. Akhmetova Squadron Officer School Class – 21C March 31, 2021 "Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Air University, the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, or any other US government agency." Abstract The Nagorno‐Karabakh territorial dispute is one of the longest inter‐ethnic conflicts from the former Soviet Union, devastating Azerbaijan and Armenia since 1988. The geographic location complicates the situation from a geopolitical perspective by bringing several outside stakeholders to the discussion table. The efforts of one key organization to mitigate the conflict, the Minsk Group, have been questioned by both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Minsk Group was established in 1992 to provide a peaceful resolution to this territorial dispute by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Competing regional and international interests further complicate this stalemate and finding a single resolution that fits all involved parties’ interests has been an arduous path. This paper explores the complexities of this conflict, discusses if Minsk Group should continue leading negotiation efforts, and proposes possible courses of actions for the international community to take with these countries. Background and Involved Parties The inter‐ethnic tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Karabakh region can be traced back to the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union era (Migdalovitz 2001, 6). For a brief period in 1921, Nagorno‐Karabakh (NK) was part of Armenia before Stalin acknowledged their ties to Azerbaijan (ibid). -
[Project] [Title of Presentation]
Horizon 2020 Policy Support Facility Horizon2020 PSF Specific support to Armenia Kick-off meeting Brussels 16.04.2019 Background report Fast facts Country / Capital The Republic of Armenia / Yerevan Population 2 .93 milion Area 29.743 sq. km (11.500 sq. miles) Major languages Armenian (native), Russian, English Major religion Christianity Life expectancy 71.3 years (men), 77.6 years (women) Monetary unit Armenian dram (AMD) Exchange rate 570.56 AMD/EUR(2018) GDP per capita, PPP 8,539 EUR (2017) Products: Copper ore, cigarette produce, brandy, precious and Main exports non-precious metals, diamonds, textile produce, electricity, foodstuff, Services: IT, tourism System of law Continental Horizon 2020 Policy Support Facility 2 Fast facts Ratings Moody’s rating B1, positive (March 9, 2018) Fitch (long-term IDRs) rating B+, positive (June 15, 2018) Ranking Ease of Doing Business 41 (2019, out of 190 countries) Index of Economic Freedom 47 (2019, out of 180 countries) Human Capital Index 49 (2017, out of 130 countries) Global Competitiveness Index 70 (2018-2019, out of 140 countries) Global Innovation index 68 (2018, out of 126 countries) Horizon 2020 Policy Support Facility 3 In April, 2018 through “Velvet revolution” the opposition leader became prime minister of Armenia. Priorities of new Government program • Protection of external and internal security of RA, guarantee of Artsakh’s security and its maintenance • Competitiveness of the economy • Protection of human rights • Democracy and the rule of law • Consolidation of human, economic, financial, intellectual potential of all Armenians for the RA development goal • Government accountability and transparency and the rejection of corruption • Separation of political and business sectors • Encouraging education and healthy living • Poverty reduction through employment and education Horizon 2020 Policy Support Facility 4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SITUATION IN ARMEINA Horizon 2020 Policy Support Facility 5 After independence the population has constantly decreased: 2 waves of massive migration in 90s and mid 2000s. -
How to Cite Complete Issue More Information About This Article
Pensamiento palabra y obra ISSN: 2011-804X Facultad de Bellas Artes Universidad Pedagógica Nacional Frank, Ellen Cities of Peace. Art in Conflict Matters Pensamiento palabra y obra, no. 18, 2017, July-December, pp. 42-51 Facultad de Bellas Artes Universidad Pedagógica Nacional Available in: https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=614164647005 How to cite Complete issue Scientific Information System Redalyc More information about this article Network of Scientific Journals from Latin America and the Caribbean, Spain and Journal's webpage in redalyc.org Portugal Project academic non-profit, developed under the open access initiative Cities of Peace. Art in Conflict Matters Ellen Frank Cities of Peace. Art in Conflict Matters Article Summary: This paper explores the elements that contributed to the spirit and success of the Cities of Peace Initiative in Yerevan, Armenia and Auschwitz, Poland. It establishes goals for the continuing growth of Cities of Peace as an international peacebuilding modality, and in architecting a new cultural diplomacy through the trans- formational power of illuminated art. Abstract Founded in 2005, the Cities of Peace Initiative, located in New York, has in- cluded young artist interns, scholars, and experts from more than 25 countries who, through collaborative work, have created nine Cities of Peace paintings that honor the history and culture of world cities that have suffered trauma. In 2015, Cities of Peace was invited to the 70th Commemoration of the Lib- eration of Auschwitz-Birkenau; also in 2015, Cities of Peace was invited by the former Prime Minister of Armenia, now Rector of the Russian-Armenian (Slavonic) University (rau), to create the 10th Cities of Peace painting in Ye- revan on the occasion of the 100th Anniversary of Armenian Genocide.