Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Response Plan

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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Response Plan Harry Gwala District Municipality Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Response Plan March 2018 Version 2 Developed through the Local Government Climate Change Support Program 1 Report Submitted to GIZ Office, Pretoria Procurement Department Hatfield Gardens, Block C, Ground Floor 333 Grosvenor Street Hatfield Pretoria Report Submitted by +27 (0)31 8276426 [email protected] www.urbanearth.co.za This project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI) and is supported by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB). Version Control Version Date Submitted Comments 1 1 November 2017 Draft version with desktop review information 2 14 March 2018 Current Version Included stakeholder feedback from Vulnerability Assessment workshop 2 Contents 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... 7 1.1 Agriculture..........................................................................................................................8 1.2 Biodiversity and Environment ..........................................................................................8 1.3 Human Health ....................................................................................................................8 1.4 Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements ....................................9 1.5 Water ..................................................................................................................................9 1.6 Cross-Cutting ......................................................................................................................9 2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Climate Change Introduction ......................................................................................... 11 3 Methodology .............................................................................................................................. 16 3.1 What is a Vulnerability Assessment? ............................................................................... 16 3.2 Steps involved in a Vulnerability Assessment .................................................................. 17 3.3 Step 1: Develop Climate Change Indicators ..................................................................... 17 3.4 Step 2: Assessing Exposure ............................................................................................... 17 3.5 Step 3: Assessing Sensitivity ............................................................................................. 18 3.6 Step 4: Assessing Adaptive Capacity ................................................................................ 18 3.7 Step 5: Develop Response Plans for Priority Indicators ................................................... 18 3.8 Desired Adaptation Outcomes ....................................................................................... 18 4 District Snapshot Harry Gwala District Municipality .................................................................. 20 4.1 Key District Indicators ....................................................................................................... 20 4.2 Harry Gwala DM Agriculture Sector Summary ................................................................. 22 4.3 Harry Gwala DM Biodiversity Sector Summary ................................................................ 30 4.4 Harry Gwala DM Health Sector Summary ........................................................................ 37 4.5 Harry Gwala DM Human Settlements Sector Summary................................................... 40 4.6 Harry Gwala DM Water Sector Summary ......................................................................... 44 5 Vulnerability Assessment Results ............................................................................................... 50 5.1 Agriculture ........................................................................................................................ 50 5.2 Biodiversity and Environment .......................................................................................... 56 5.3 Human Health................................................................................................................... 60 5.4 Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements ...................................... 63 5.5 Water ................................................................................................................................ 66 5.6 Vulnerability Assessment Summary ................................................................................. 69 6 Sector Response Plans ................................................................................................................ 72 6.1 Agriculture ........................................................................................................................ 72 6.2 Biodiversity and Environment .......................................................................................... 74 3 6.3 Human Health................................................................................................................... 77 6.4 Disaster Management, Infrastructure and Human Settlements ...................................... 79 6.5 Water ................................................................................................................................ 81 6.6 Cross-Cutting .................................................................................................................... 83 7 References .................................................................................................................................. 84 4 Table of Figures Figure 1: Hydrological Zones of South Africa ........................................................................................ 14 Figure 2: Vulnerability Assessment Methodology ................................................................................ 17 Figure 3: Percentage of households involved in agricultural activities across the District Municipal Area (Statistics South Africa 2011)........................................................................................................ 23 Figure 4: Maize (medium hybrid) yield estimates per mesozone across the District Municipal Area (Schulze and Walker 2007b) ................................................................................................................. 24 Figure 5: Sorghum yield estimates per mesozone across the District Municipal Area (Schulze and Walker 2007c) ....................................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 6: Soybean yield estimates per mesozone across the District Municipal Area (Schulze and Walker 2007d) ....................................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 7: Dryland sugar yield estimates per mesozone across the District Municipal Area (Schulze and Walker 2007e) ....................................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 8: Groundnuts yield estimates per mesozone across the District Municipal Area (Schulze and Walker 2007a) ....................................................................................................................................... 27 Figure 9: Commercial Forestry distribution across the District Municipal Area (De Lange 2013)........ 28 Figure 10: Current biome delineation in the District Municipal Area (South African National Parks 2011a) ................................................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 11: Predicted shift in biomes in the District Municipal Area using a medium risk scenario (South African National Parks 2011c) ................................................................................................... 31 Figure 12: Predicted shift in biomes in the District Municipal Area using a high risk scenario (South African National Parks 2011b) .............................................................................................................. 32 Figure 13: Threatened ecosystem types in the District Municipal Area (South African National Biodiversity Institute 2011) ................................................................................................................... 33 Figure 14: Protected areas in the District Municipal Area (South African National Parks / South African National Biodiversity Institute 2011; Department of Environmental Affairs 2017) ................. 34 Figure 15: Condition of wetlands in the District Municipal Area (Council for Scientific and Industrial Research 2011) ..................................................................................................................................... 35 Figure 16: Percentage of young (<5yrs age group) and elderly (>64yrs age group) across the District Municipal Area (Statistics South Africa 2011) ....................................................................................... 38 Figure 17: Employment status
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