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Iraq's Evolving Insurgency
CSIS _______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775 -3270 Access: Web: CSIS.ORG Contact the Author: [email protected] Iraq’s Evolving Insurgency Anthony H. Cordesman Center for Strategic and International Studies With the Assistance of Patrick Baetjer Working Draft: Updated as of August 5, 2005 Please not e that this is part of a rough working draft of a CSIS book that will be published by Praeger in the fall of 2005. It is being circulated to solicit comments and additional data, and will be steadily revised and updated over time. Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. All further dissemination and reproduction must be done with the written permission of the CSIS Cordesman: Iraq’s Evolving Insurgency 8/5/05 Page ii I. INTR ODUCTION ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 1 SADDAM HUSSEIN ’S “P OWDER KEG ” ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 1 AMERICA ’S STRATEGIC MISTAKES ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 2 AMERICA ’S STRATEGIC MISTAKES ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 6 II. THE GROWTH AND C HARACTER OF THE INSURGENT THREA T ................................ ........ 9 DENIAL AS A METHOD OF COUNTER -INSURGENCY WARFARE ............................... -
After Saddam: Prewar Planning and the Occupation of Iraq, MG-642-A, Nora Bensahel, Olga Oliker, Keith Crane, Richard R
THE ARTS This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as CHILD POLICY a public service of the RAND Corporation. CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION Jump down to document ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT 6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING organization providing objective analysis and PUBLIC SAFETY effective solutions that address the challenges facing SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY the public and private sectors around the world. SUBSTANCE ABUSE TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Support RAND TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Purchase this document WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Arroyo Center View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. After Saddam Prewar Planning and the Occupation of Iraq Nora Bensahel, Olga Oliker, Keith Crane, Richard R. -
Arab Spring”: Predicting Likely Outcomes and Planning U.N
\\jciprod01\productn\C\CIN\46-1\CIN104.txt unknown Seq: 1 13-JUN-13 13:27 Wargaming the “Arab Spring”: Predicting Likely Outcomes and Planning U.N. Responses Hannibal Travis† Introduction ..................................................... 75 R I. The Cause of Peace ....................................... 77 R II. Wargaming the Arab Spring: General Principles .......... 86 R III. The Spark, Tunisia 2011 ................................. 88 R IV. The Pharaoh, Egypt 2011 ................................ 93 R V. The “Cockroaches,” Libya 2011 .......................... 101 R VI. The Sideshow: Sudan ..................................... 117 R VII. Wargaming the Arab Spring and Planning U.N. Responses ................................................ 119 R A. The Duty to Prevent and Punish Genocide ............. 119 R 1. Predicting Whether There is a Risk of Genocide in Arab-Spring Countries............................. 119 R 2. Planning U.N. Responses to Attempts or Conspiracies to Commit Genocide ................. 124 R B. The Duty to Prevent and Punish Other War Crimes .... 129 R C. The Duty Not to Return Refugees to Civil War or Ethno-Political Violence ............................... 131 R D. The Duty to Respect the Political Independence and Territorial Integrity of Other States .................... 133 R E. The Duty to Promote Other Human Rights ............. 140 R Conclusion ...................................................... 142 R Introduction Scholars have developed three prominent schools of thought on the Arab Spring, which emerged -
The Future of Iraq: Democracy, Civil War, Or Chaos?
THE FUTURE OF IRAQ: DEMOCRACY, CIVIL WAR, OR CHAOS? *By Michael Rubin Pessimism regarding Iraq's future is unwarranted. Iraq faces many challenges, but success is still within reach. After 35 years of dictatorship, Iraqis have embraced a political process emphasizing compromise and coalition. They have successfully held elections and drawn up a constitution. Political brinkmanship is not necessarily a precursor to civil war. That said, Iraqi democracy faces many challenges. First and foremost is the insurgency. Premature reconciliation and concessions offered in the face of violence, however, will backfire. Neighboring states also may undermine Iraq's security, necessitating a long-term U.S. military presence. This article was originally written for a project and conference on "After the Iraq War: Strategic and Political Changes in Europe and the Middle East," co-sponsored by the GLORIA Center and The Military Centre for Strategic Studies (CeMiSS) of Italy. More than eight million Iraqis braved bombs Iraqis move toward their constitutional and bullets to vote on January 30, 2005, in referendum and national elections for a full- Iraq's first free elections in a half-century. term government, the greatest threat they face President George W. Bush praised the Iraqi will be from outside powers seeking to people from the White House, declaring, "In destabilize Iraq by proxy. The key for success great numbers, and under great risk, Iraqis will be to abide by, without exception, a have shown their commitment to democracy. timeline for specific political milestones. By participating in free elections, the Iraqi Washington and the United Nations should people have firmly rejected the anti- not bend to pressure, be it from factions democratic ideology of terrorists."1 But in within Iraq or from interests outside, to alter subsequent weeks, talks bogged down, first the agreed framework. -
The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service by DAVID WITTY Table of Contents
The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service BY DAVID WITTY Table of Contents 1 Acknowledgments 3 The Author 5 The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service 6 The Creation of CTS 12 The Maturation of CTS with U.S. Assistance 22 CTS after the U.S. Withdrawal 30 Original US Proposal for CTS Structure 31 CTS Structure as Implemented 32 Internal CTS Structure 33 CTS Today 38 Implications and Recommendations 42 The Center for Middle East Policy 1 | The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service Acknowledgements his paper would not have been possible without the support of Tamara Cofman Wittes, who suggested that I write. Special Tthanks go to Daniel Byman, who provided impor- tant and valuable recommendations as I revised it. I also thank Sondra Rabone, who read one of the earliest drafts. Stephanie Dahle and Sarah Collins were invaluable during the editing process. 3 | The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service The Author avid M. Witty is a retired U.S. Army officer. He has spent over ten years living and work- ing in the Middle East. He currently works Das an adjunct instructor for Norwich University. 5 | The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) is an Section one of this paper will describe the creation independent, quasi-ministerial level organization of CTS. Section two will discuss the maturation of separate from the Iraqi Ministry of Defense (MoD) CTS with full U.S. assistance and the challenges and Ministry of the Interior (MoI). Originally cre- it faced, while section three will examine CTS in ated by the U.S., it has a three-tiered organizational the post-U.S.