Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2000
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Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting_2000 collect by macbookpro2100 Afternoon Session - 2000 Meeting BerkshireHathaway Warren Buffett defends a big retirement package for Coca-Cola's outgoing CEO. He also identifies an unexpected factor in spiraling CEO pay, explains why buying Berkshire Hathaway was a "terrible mistake," and admits he's a little "crazy" because he doesn't mind paying taxes. 1. Most companies hide the true cost of stock options 大多数公司都隐藏了股票期权的真实成本 WARREN BUFFETT: OK, if area one is ready, we're ready to start answering. WARREN BUFFETT:好的,如果第一区准备就绪,我们已经准备好开始接听了。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. 观众:嗨。 WARREN BUFFETT: Hi. WARREN BUFFETT:嗨。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Steve Check.I'm from Costa Mesa, California. 听众:我的名字是Steve Check。我来自加州科斯塔梅萨。 My question is regarding stock options.I've taken your suggestion and have been attempting to subtract stock option compensation from reported income when evaluating companies.When I read annual reports, I usually find companies estimating option costs using the Black-Scholes model. 我的问题是关于股票期权。我已经采纳了你的建议并且在评估公司时试图从报告的收入中减去股 票期权补偿。当我阅读年度报告时,我通常会找到使用Black-Scholes模型估算期权成本的公司。 However, the assumptions going into the Black-Scholes model seem quite different from company to company.These assumptions, of course, are what is used for risk-free interest rates — quote unquote, "risk-free" interest rates, expected option lives — even though options have stated lives, and expected volatility. 然而,进入Black-Scholes模型的假设在公司与公司之间似乎有很大不同。当然,这些假设是用于 无风险利率的 - 引用无引用,“无风险”利率,预期期权寿命 - 即使期权已经表明生命和预期的波动 性。 Help me out a little bit.What is the best way to calculate option costs?Do you think Black- Scholes is appropriate?If so, how should we normalize the assumptions? 帮助我一点点。计算期权成本的最佳方法是什么?你认为Black-Scholes合适吗?如果是这样,我 们应该如何规范假设? And just one short follow-up: how can we possibly estimate future earnings for companies, when companies, such as even Microsoft last week, in response to a lower stock price, simply reissue a bunch of new options? 还有一个简短的跟进:我们怎么可能估计公司未来的收益,当上周公司,比如微软,为了应对较 低的股价,只需重新发布一系列新选项? WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, the — I can tell you, from some personal experience, that companies attempt to use the lowest figure they can, even though it doesn't hit the income account. WARREN BUFFETT:是的,我可以告诉你,从个人经验来看,公司试图使用尽可能低的数字, 即使它没有达到收入账户。 So they like to make fairly short assumptions as to the life of the options, even though they're granted on a ten-year basis.Because they'll make certain assumptions about exercise date or forfeiture and so on. 所以他们喜欢对期权的生命做出相当简短的假设,即使它们是在十年的基础上授予的。因为他们 会对行使日期或没收等做出某些假设。 I think the most appropriate way, when you've got a pattern, which you have at many companies, of what they do on options, is simply to make an educated guess as to the average option issuance that they're going to incur,or they're going to elect to do over time. 我认为最恰当的方式是,当你有一个模式,你在许多公司,他们在选项上做了什么,只是对他们 将要发生的平均期权发行做出有根据的猜测,或者他们会随着时间的推移选择做。 And, generally, what you really want to — if you were to be precise — you would try to figure out what they could've sold those options for in the open market.Because that's the opportunity cost of giving them to the employees instead of selling the same option in the market. 而且,一般来说,你真正想要的 - 如果你准确的话 - 你会试着找出他们可以在公开市场上出售这 些选项的东西。因为这是给员工的机会成本,而不是在市场上出售相同的选项。 I think you'll find, generally, that if you take a value of about a third, for a ten-year option, if you take a value of about a third — obviously, it depends on dividend rate and volatility and a whole bunchof things — but about a third of the market value, strike price, at the time they're issued, that's the expectable cost. 一般来说,我认为你会发现,如果你拿一个三分之一左右的值,十年选项,如果你拿一个大约三 分之一的价值 - 显然,它取决于股息率和波动率以及一大堆事情 - 但大约三分之一的市场价值, 执行价格,在他们发行时,这是可预期的成本。 We believe in using the expectable cost versus the actual cost.I mean, that is how we would look at it. 我们相信使用可预期的成本与实际成本。我的意思是,这就是我们如何看待它。 If we were issuing options at Berkshire, and we issued options on $100 million worth of stock a year, we would figure it was costing us, probably in our case, with no dividend, at least $35 million a year to issue those options. 如果我们在伯克希尔发行期权,并且我们每年发行价值1亿美元的股票期权,我们认为这可能会 花费我们,可能在我们的情况下,没有股息,每年至少3500万美元来发行这些期权。 And we would figure that if we gave people $35 million in some other form of result-oriented compensation, that it would be a wash.And that is not the way most managements, of course, figure.At least that's my experience. 而且我们认为如果我们给人们3500万美元的其他形式的结果导向的补偿,那将是一个洗。当然, 这不是大多数管理层的方式。至少这是我的经历。 And we would figure we could use that 35 million in a more shareholder-oriented way and one where the employee (who) was productive would be sure of getting results, as opposed to having it be at the whims of the market. 而且我们认为我们可以以更加以股东为导向的方式使用3500万,而员工(谁)具有生产力将确保 取得成果,而不是让它成为市场的一时兴起。 And I think you'll see a lot of option repricing.Everybody says they won't reprice their options, until they do it.And, you'll see that with a lot of schemes. 而且我认为你会看到很多选项重新定价。每个人都说他们不会重新定价他们的选择,直到他们这 样做。而且,你会看到很多方案。 It would be interesting to see whether CONSICO is willing to bankrupt all the executives who made loans to buy the stock and had those loans guaranteed by the company. 看看CONSICO是否愿意破产所有提供贷款购买股票的高管并让公司担保这些贷款,这将是很有 意思的。 And the company initially said they would enforce those loans.And we'll see whether they do it.I would say, in many cases, they won't.I don't know what CONSICO will do. 该公司最初表示将执行这些贷款。我们会看看他们是否这样做了。我会说,在许多情况下,他们 不会。我不知道CONSICO会做什么。 But, a lot of things that are said in connection with executive option schemes and that sort of thing are what they'll do if it works in their favor.And then they'll do something else if it doesn't work in their favor.And that's not spelled out in the initial approval that's granted. 但是,很多与执行期权计划有关的事情,如果它对他们有利,他们会做什么。如果不利于他们, 他们会做点别的事情。并且在最初的批准中没有明确规定。 Charlie, you have anything to add? 查理,你有什么要补充的吗? CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, Warren's somewhat critical attitude is very understated compared to mine.(Laughter) CHARLIE MUNGER:嗯,与我的相比,Warren有点批评的态度非常低调。 (笑声) WARREN BUFFETT: We're going to leave raisins out of this particular — (laughter) — analysis.Let's go to area 2. WARREN BUFFETT:我们要把葡萄干放在这个特别的地方 - (笑声) - 分析。我们去第2区。 We do believe, incidentally, if a company is going to end up giving out 10 percent of the, company over a 10-year period or 15 percent on options, that is like buying an apartment house and letting the seller keep a 10 or 15percent interest in the upside. 顺便说一句,我们确实相信,如果一家公司最终会在10年内给出10%的公司或15%的期权,那就 像购买公寓并让卖家保持10或15上升利率百分比。 Or it's like buying an oil field and giving somebody a 10 or 15 percent interest-free override.It changes the value of the property.Make no mistake about it. 或者就像购买油田并为某人提供10%或15%的免息覆盖。它会更改属性的值。别搞错了。 It is a — it has a huge economic impact on the value of a property.And just go out and try and sell your house and say, "I want to keep 15 percent of the appreciation in it," and ask the buyer whether he's going to pay the same price for the house. 它是 - 它对房产的价值产生巨大的经济影响。然后出去尝试卖掉你的房子并说:“我想保持15%的 升值,”然后问买家他是否愿意为房子支付相同的价格。 Options subtract value the moment they are granted.And, like I say, unless companies — some companies follow a practice of making a mega-grant every three or four or five years.A lot of them just issue a fairly constant amount annually.And you can figure out the cost. 选项在授予时减去值。而且,就像我说的,除非公司 - 一些公司遵循每三到四年或五年制作一笔 巨额赠款的做法。他们中的很多人每年只发出相当稳定的金额。你可以弄清楚成本。 And, you know, they don't want to tell the shareholders there's a cost.And that's why they fought through Congress and everything else in order to prevent it from being the truth.But, you know, Galileo had that problem many years ago and finally won out.So maybe we will, too.(Laughs) 而且,你知道,他们不想告诉股东这是一笔费用。这就是为什么他们为了防止它成为真理而在国 会和其他一切事务中进行斗争的原因。但是,你知道,伽利略很多年前就遇到过这个问题,并最 终胜出。所以也许我们也会。 (笑) 2. Moody’s moat has "poisonous characters" 穆迪的护城河有“有毒人物” WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, area 2. WARREN BUFFETT:是的,第2区。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Dennis Jean-Jacques from Chatham, New Jersey.I first would like to thank you personally for taking the time out of your busy schedule to visit MBA students throughout the country on a regular basis. 听众:我的名字是来自新泽西州查塔姆的Dennis Jean-Jacques。我首先要感谢您个人在繁忙的 日程中抽出时间定期访问全国的MBA学生。 In fact, I consider your visit to the Harvard Business School campus many years ago my personal rational awakening. 事实上,我认为你多年前访问哈佛商学院的校园是我个人理性的觉醒。 My question is in regard to Dun & Bradstreet.Many academics would argue that two of the many factors that determine a firm's sustainable competitive advantage are the threat of new interest through imitation, and the threat of substitution through technological advances, such as, you know, the internet and things of that nature. 我的问题是关于Dun&Bradstreet。许多学者认为,决定公司可持续竞争优势的众多因素中有两个 是通过模仿产生新兴趣的威胁,以及通过技术进步替代的威胁,例如互联网和这种性质的东西。 My question is, how deep is the moat around Moody's and the operating company? 我的问题是,穆迪和运营公司的护城河有多深? WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, we don't want to go into too much detail about our marketable investments. WARREN BUFFETT:是的,我们不想详细介绍我们的市场投资。 But I would say that the moat is, just in our view, is far wider, deeper, and infested with far more poisonous characters, in the case of Moody's, than in the case of the operating company. 但我会说,在我们看来,护城河的范围更广,更深,并且在穆迪的情况下,其毒性更大,而不是 在经营公司的情况下。 We've had experience — just in terms of making decisions about how you either obtain credit information, in the case of the operating company, or if you want to obtain ratings on securities or something — I think you'd conclude that Moody's is amuch stronger franchise than the operating company. 我们有过经验 - 只是在决定如何获得信用信息方面,对于运营公司,或者如果你想获得证券或其 他东西的评级 - 我认为你得出的结论是穆迪是一个比运营公司更强大的特许经营权。 Doesn't mean the operating company can't turn out to be a better business.It might have more upside under certain circumstances, too. 并不意味着运营公司不能成为更好的企业。在某些情况下,它可能会有更多的上行空间。 But if you're really thinking of, you know, what bad can happen to you, I think that you would regard Moody's as a considerably stronger franchise than the operating company.