Certainty and Uncertainty in Tax Law: Do Opposites Attract?
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What Is the Balance Between Certainty and Uncertainty?
What is the balance between certainty and uncertainty? Susan Griffin, Centre for Health Economics, University of York Overview • Decision analysis – Objective function – The decision to invest/disinvest in health care programmes – The decision to require further evidence • Characterising uncertainty – Epistemic uncertainty, quality of evidence, modelling uncertainty • Possibility for research Theory Objective function • Methods can be applied to any decision problem – Objective – Quantitative index measure of outcome • Maximise health subject to budget constraint – Value improvement in quality of life in terms of equivalent improvement in length of life → QALYs • Maximise health and equity s.t budget constraint – Value improvement in equity in terms of equivalent improvement in health The decision to invest • Maximise health subject to budget constraint – Constrained optimisation problem – Given costs and health outcomes of all available programmes, identify optimal set • Marginal approach – Introducing new programme displaces existing activities – Compare health gained to health forgone resources Slope gives rate at C A which resources converted to health gains with currently funded programmes health HGA HDA resources Slope gives rate at which resources converted to health gains with currently funded programmes CB health HDB HGB Requiring more evidence • Costs and health outcomes estimated with uncertainty • Cost of uncertainty: programme funded on basis of estimated costs and outcomes might turn out not to be that which maximises health -
Would ''Direct Realism'' Resolve the Classical Problem of Induction?
NOU^S 38:2 (2004) 197–232 Would ‘‘Direct Realism’’ Resolve the Classical Problem of Induction? MARC LANGE University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill I Recently, there has been a modest resurgence of interest in the ‘‘Humean’’ problem of induction. For several decades following the recognized failure of Strawsonian ‘‘ordinary-language’’ dissolutions and of Wesley Salmon’s elaboration of Reichenbach’s pragmatic vindication of induction, work on the problem of induction languished. Attention turned instead toward con- firmation theory, as philosophers sensibly tried to understand precisely what it is that a justification of induction should aim to justify. Now, however, in light of Bayesian confirmation theory and other developments in epistemology, several philosophers have begun to reconsider the classical problem of induction. In section 2, I shall review a few of these developments. Though some of them will turn out to be unilluminating, others will profitably suggest that we not meet inductive scepticism by trying to justify some alleged general principle of ampliative reasoning. Accordingly, in section 3, I shall examine how the problem of induction arises in the context of one particular ‘‘inductive leap’’: the confirmation, most famously by Henrietta Leavitt and Harlow Shapley about a century ago, that a period-luminosity relation governs all Cepheid variable stars. This is a good example for the inductive sceptic’s purposes, since it is difficult to see how the sparse background knowledge available at the time could have entitled stellar astronomers to regard their observations as justifying this grand inductive generalization. I shall argue that the observation reports that confirmed the Cepheid period- luminosity law were themselves ‘‘thick’’ with expectations regarding as yet unknown laws of nature. -
Climate Scepticism, Epistemic Dissonance, and the Ethics of Uncertainty
SYMPOSIUM A CHANGING MORAL CLIMATE CLIMATE SCEPTICISM, EPISTEMIC DISSONANCE, AND THE ETHICS OF UNCERTAINTY BY AXEL GELFERT © 2013 – Philosophy and Public Issues (New Series), Vol. 3, No. 1 (2013): 167-208 Luiss University Press E-ISSN 2240-7987 | P-ISSN 1591-0660 [THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK] A CHANGING MORAL CLIMATE Climate Scepticism, Epistemic Dissonance, and the Ethics of Uncertainty Axel Gelfert Abstract. When it comes to the public debate about the challenge of global climate change, moral questions are inextricably intertwined with epistemological ones. This manifests itself in at least two distinct ways. First, for a fixed set of epistemic standards, it may be irresponsible to delay policy- making until everyone agrees that such standards have been met. This has been extensively discussed in the literature on the precautionary principle. Second, key actors in the public debate may—for strategic reasons, or out of simple carelessness—engage in the selective variation of epistemic standards in response to evidence that would threaten to undermine their core beliefs, effectively leading to epistemic double standards that make rational agreement impossible. The latter scenario is aptly described as an instance of what Stephen Gardiner calls “epistemic corruption.” In the present paper, I aim to give an explanation of the cognitive basis of epistemic corruption and discuss its place within the moral landscape of the debate. In particular, I argue that epistemic corruption often reflects an agent’s attempt to reduce dissonance between incoming scientific evidence and the agent’s ideological core commitments. By selectively discounting the former, agents may attempt to preserve the coherence of the latter, yet in doing so they threaten to damage the integrity of evidence-based deliberation. -
Investment Behaviors Under Epistemic Versus Aleatory Uncertainty
Investment Behaviors Under Epistemic versus Aleatory Uncertainty 2 Daniel J. Walters, Assistant Professor of Marketing, INSEAD Europe, Marketing Department, Boulevard de Constance, 77300 Fontainebleau, 01 60 72 40 00, [email protected] Gülden Ülkümen, Gülden Ülkümen, Associate Professor of Marketing at University of Southern California, 701 Exposition Boulevard, Hoffman Hall 516, Los Angeles, CA 90089- 0804, [email protected] Carsten Erner, UCLA Anderson School of Management, 110 Westwood Plaza, Los Angeles, CA, USA 90095-1481, [email protected] David Tannenbaum, Assistant Professor of Management, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, (801) 581-8695, [email protected] Craig R. Fox, Harold Williams Professor of Management at the UCLA Anderson School of Management, Professor of Psychology and Medicine at UCLA, 110 Westwood Plaza #D511 Los Angeles, CA, USA 90095-1481, (310) 206-3403, [email protected] 3 Abstract In nine studies, we find that investors intuitively distinguish two independent dimensions of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty that they attribute to missing knowledge, skill, or information, versus aleatory uncertainty that they attribute to chance or stochastic processes. Investors who view stock market uncertainty as higher in epistemicness (knowability) are more sensitive to their available information when choosing whether or not to invest, and are more likely to reduce uncertainty by seeking guidance from experts. In contrast, investors who view stock market uncertainty as higher -
Against Certainty
Florida State University College of Law Scholarship Repository Scholarly Publications Fall 2012 Against Certainty Shawn J. Bayern Florida State University College of Law Follow this and additional works at: https://ir.law.fsu.edu/articles Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Shawn J. Bayern, Against Certainty, 41 HOFSTRA L. REV. 53 (2012), Available at: https://ir.law.fsu.edu/articles/43 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Scholarly Publications by an authorized administrator of Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. AGAINST CERTAINTY Shawn J. Bayern* I. INTRODUCTION In legal argumentation, appeals to certainty and predictability have enormous rhetorical power. This Article argues that their use outstrips their legitimate role in legal analysis. The Article is not literally ―against certainty‖ in the sense that it promotes uncertainty as a good thing in itself;1 it is just a skeptical consideration of the role of appeals to certainty in legal theory. The Article‘s principal contention is that arguments about certainty are often mistaken, that certainty itself is often misunderstood, and that many defenses of certainty in legal rules are tautological, irrelevant, or substantively overstated.2 There are many reasons that certainty has at least a superficial appeal in legal reasoning. For one thing, it may comport with analytical philosophers‘ desires for conceptual clarity; a pragmatic or pluralist mode of analysis may appear unprincipled, intellectually incoherent, or simply unhelpful to those who promote formal argumentation.3 For * Assistant Professor, Florida State University College of Law. -
The Flaw of Averages)
THE NEED FOR GREATER REFLECTION OF HETEROGENEITY IN CEA or (The fLaw of averages) Warren Stevens PhD CONFIDENTIAL © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. Shimmering Substance Jackson Pollock, 1946. © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 2 CONFIDENTIAL 1 Statistical summary of Shimmering Substance Jackson Pollock, 1946. Average color: Brown [Beige-Black] Average position of brushstroke © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 3 CONFIDENTIAL WE KNOW DATA ON EFFECTIVENESS IS FAR MORE COMPLEX THAN WE LIKE TO REPRESENT IT n Many patients are better off with the comparator QALYS gained © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 4 CONFIDENTIAL 2 A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT CE threshold Mean CE Mean CE treatment treatment #1 #2 n Value of Value of Cost per QALY treatment treatment #2 to Joe #1 to Bob © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 5 CONFIDENTIAL A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT • Joe is receiving a treatment that is cost-effective for him, but deemed un cost-effective by/for society • Bob is receiving an treatment that is not cost-effective for him, but has been deemed cost-effective by/for society • So who’s treatment is cost-effective? © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 6 CONFIDENTIAL 3 HYPOTHETICALLY THERE ARE AS MANY LEVELS OF EFFECTIVENESS (OR COST-EFFECTIVENESS) AS THERE ARE PATIENTS What questions or uncertainties stop us recognizing this basic truth in scientific practice? 1. Uncertainty (empiricism) – how do we gauge uncertainty in a sample size of 1? avoiding false positives 2. Policy – how do we institute a separate treatment policy for each and every individual? 3. Information (data) – how we do make ‘informed’ decisions without the level of detail required in terms of information (we know more about populations than we do about people) © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. -
The Problem of Induction
The Problem of Induction Gilbert Harman Department of Philosophy, Princeton University Sanjeev R. Kulkarni Department of Electrical Engineering, Princeton University July 19, 2005 The Problem The problem of induction is sometimes motivated via a comparison between rules of induction and rules of deduction. Valid deductive rules are necessarily truth preserving, while inductive rules are not. So, for example, one valid deductive rule might be this: (D) From premises of the form “All F are G” and “a is F ,” the corresponding conclusion of the form “a is G” follows. The rule (D) is illustrated in the following depressing argument: (DA) All people are mortal. I am a person. So, I am mortal. The rule here is “valid” in the sense that there is no possible way in which premises satisfying the rule can be true without the corresponding conclusion also being true. A possible inductive rule might be this: (I) From premises of the form “Many many F s are known to be G,” “There are no known cases of F s that are not G,” and “a is F ,” the corresponding conclusion can be inferred of the form “a is G.” The rule (I) might be illustrated in the following “inductive argument.” (IA) Many many people are known to have been moral. There are no known cases of people who are not mortal. I am a person. So, I am mortal. 1 The rule (I) is not valid in the way that the deductive rule (D) is valid. The “premises” of the inductive inference (IA) could be true even though its “con- clusion” is not true. -
Constitutional Law Connotations of Legal Certainty in the Rule of Law
CONSTITUTIONAL LAW CONNOTATIONS OF LEGAL CERTAINTY IN THE RULE OF LAW Emilian CIONGARU Abstract The Rule of law must accomplish the rule of law, both in its relations with citizens and in relations with the governing bodies. An main foundation of the Rule of law consists of the principle of legal security which implies that individuals, as beneficiaries of the law, to be able, without putting too much effort, to decide what is allowed and what is prohibited by the applicable law. To achieve this outcome, the legal norms adopted must be clear and understandable and not be subject over the time to so frequent and especially, unpredictable changes. The principle of legal security is also known as the principle of legal certainty because it consists of the uncertainty that the enforcement of legal norms in a given situation to be predictable, the incident legal norm to be easily to establish, its recipients to be certain a legal provision corresponding offense is applied, and not another one, and that it will be interpreted in a uniform manner and a legal norm which did not come to the notice of recipients can not be applied Key words: rule of law, legal security, legal certainty, constitutional order, political organization of society. JEL Classification: [K10] Throughout the historical evolution, the political organization of society, particularly through its main institution, the State, was realized more and more on perfecting the State structure in relation to natural or legal persons of the State and the rigorous legal norms, which set both their rights and freedoms, but also duties of the State bodies to act within the legal norms intendment. -
WP56: Scientific Uncertainty: a User Guide
The Munich Re Programme: Evaluating the Economics of Climate Risks and Opportunities in the Insurance Sector Scientific uncertainty: a user’s guide Seamus Bradley August 2011 Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 65 Munich Re Programme Technical Paper No. 9 Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper No. 56 The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) was established by the University of Leeds and the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2008 to advance public and private action on climate change through innovative, rigorous research. The Centre is funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council and has five inter-linked research programmes: 1. Developing climate science and economics 2. Climate change governance for a new global deal 3. Adaptation to climate change and human development 4. Governments, markets and climate change mitigation 5. The Munich Re Programme - Evaluating the economics of climate risks and opportunities in the insurance sector (funded by Munich Re) More information about the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy can be found at: http://www.cccep.ac.uk. The Munich Re Programme is evaluating the economics of climate risks and opportunities in the insurance sector. It is a comprehensive research programme that focuses on the assessment of the risks from climate change and on the appropriate responses, to inform decision-making in the private and public sectors. The programme is exploring, from a risk management perspective, the implications of climate change across the world, in terms of both physical impacts and regulatory responses. -
A Philosophical Treatise of Universal Induction
Entropy 2011, 13, 1076-1136; doi:10.3390/e13061076 OPEN ACCESS entropy ISSN 1099-4300 www.mdpi.com/journal/entropy Article A Philosophical Treatise of Universal Induction Samuel Rathmanner and Marcus Hutter ? Research School of Computer Science, Australian National University, Corner of North and Daley Road, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia ? Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected]. Received: 20 April 2011; in revised form: 24 May 2011 / Accepted: 27 May 2011 / Published: 3 June 2011 Abstract: Understanding inductive reasoning is a problem that has engaged mankind for thousands of years. This problem is relevant to a wide range of fields and is integral to the philosophy of science. It has been tackled by many great minds ranging from philosophers to scientists to mathematicians, and more recently computer scientists. In this article we argue the case for Solomonoff Induction, a formal inductive framework which combines algorithmic information theory with the Bayesian framework. Although it achieves excellent theoretical results and is based on solid philosophical foundations, the requisite technical knowledge necessary for understanding this framework has caused it to remain largely unknown and unappreciated in the wider scientific community. The main contribution of this article is to convey Solomonoff induction and its related concepts in a generally accessible form with the aim of bridging this current technical gap. In the process we examine the major historical contributions that have led to the formulation of Solomonoff Induction as well as criticisms of Solomonoff and induction in general. In particular we examine how Solomonoff induction addresses many issues that have plagued other inductive systems, such as the black ravens paradox and the confirmation problem, and compare this approach with other recent approaches. -
Turns in the Evolution of the Problem of Induction*
CARL G. HEMPEL TURNS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PROBLEM OF INDUCTION* 1. THE STANDARD CONCEPTION: INDUCTIVE "INFERENCE" Since the days of Hume's skeptical doubt, philosophical conceptions of the problem of induction and of ways in which it might be properly solved or dissolved have undergone a series of striking metamor- phoses. In my paper, I propose to examine some of those turnings, which seem to me to raise particularly important questions about the nature of empirical knowledge and especially scientific knowledge. Many, but by no means all, of the statements asserted by empirical science at a given time are accepted on the basis of previously established evidence sentences. Hume's skeptical doubt reflects the realization that most of those indirectly, or inferentially, accepted assertions rest on evidence that gives them no complete, no logically conclusive, support. This is, of course, the point of Hume's obser- vation that even if we have examined many occurrences of A and have found them all to be accompanied by B, it is quite conceivable, or logically possible, that some future occurrence of A might not be accompanied by B. Nor, we might add, does our evidence guarantee that past or present occurrences of A that we have not observed were- or are- accompanied by B, let alone that all occurrences ever of A are, without exception, accompanied by B. Yet, in our everyday pursuits as well as in scientific research we constantly rely on what I will call the method of inductive ac- ceptance, or MIA for short: we adopt beliefs, or expectations, about empirical matters on logically incomplete evidence, and we even base our actions on such beliefs- to the point of staking our lives on some of them. -
Employment & Labour
Employment & Labour Law 2019 Seventh Edition Contributing Editor: Charles Wynn-Evans Global Legal Insights Employment & Labour Law 2019, Seventh Edition Contributing Editor: Charles Wynn-Evans Published by Global Legal Group GLOBAL LEGAL INSIGHTS – EMPLOYMENT & LABOUR LAW 2019, SEVENTH EDITION Contributing Editor Charles Wynn-Evans, Dechert LLP Editor Sam Friend Senior Editors Caroline Collingwood & Rachel Williams Group Consulting Editor Alan Falach Publisher Rory Smith We are extremely grateful for all contributions to this edition. Special thanks are reserved for Charles Wynn-Evans for all of his assistance. Published by Global Legal Group Ltd. 59 Tanner Street, London SE1 3PL, United Kingdom Tel: +44 207 367 0720 / URL: www.glgroup.co.uk Copyright © 2018 Global Legal Group Ltd. All rights reserved No photocopying ISBN 978-1-912509-49-2 ISSN 2050-2117 This publication is for general information purposes only. It does not purport to provide comprehensive full legal or other advice. Global Legal Group Ltd. and the contributors accept no responsibility for losses that may arise from reliance upon information contained in this publication. This publication is intended to give an indication of legal issues upon which you may need advice. Full legal advice should be taken from a qualified professional when dealing with specific situations. The information contained herein is accurate as of the date of publication. Printed and bound by TJ International, Trecerus Industrial Estate, Padstow, Cornwall, PL28 8RW December 2018 CONTENTS Preface