1935 SANCTIONS AGAINST ITALY: WOULD COAL AND CRUDE OIL HAVE MADE 1 A DIFFERENCE? CRISTIANO ANDREA RISTUCCIA LINACRE COLLEGE OXFORD OX1 3JA GREAT BRITAIN Telephone 44 1865 721981
[email protected] 1 Thanks to (in alphabetical order): Dr. Leonardo Becchetti, Sergio Cardarelli (and staff of the ASBI), Criana Connal, John Fawcett, Prof. Charles Feinstein, Dr. James Foreman-Peck, Paola Geretto (and staff of the ISTAT library and archive), Gwyneira Isaac, Clare Pettitt, Prof. Maria Teresa Salvemini, Prof. Giuseppe Tattara, Leigh Shaw-Taylor, Prof. Gianni Toniolo, Dr. Marco Trombetta, and two anonymous referees who made useful comments on a previous version of this paper. The responsibility for the contents of the article is, of course, mine alone. ABSTRACT This article assesses the hypothesis that in 1935 - 1936 the implementation of sanctions on the export of coal and oil products to Italy by the League of Nations would have forced Italy to abandon her imperialistic war against Ethiopia. In particular, the article focuses on the claim that Britain and France, the League’s leaders, could have halted the Italian invasion of Ethiopia by means of coal and oil sanctions, and without the help of the United States, or recourse to stronger means such as a military blockade. An analysis of the data on coal consumption in the industrial census of 1937 - 1938 shows that the Italian industry would have survived a League embargo on coal, provided that Germany continued her supply to Italy. The counterfactual proves that the effect of an oil embargo was entirely dependent on the attitude of the United States towards the League’s action.