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Status and Dynamics of the Political Situation in Burundi

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Status and Dynamics of the Political Situation in Burundi ISSUE 1 | JULY 2014 Central Africa Report Status and dynamics of the political situation in Burundi Yolande Bouka Summary Once hailed as a peacebuilding success story, Burundi has recently experienced escalating political tensions that threaten the stability of country ahead of its 2015 general elections. Frictions between political actors stem partly from the closing of the political space by the government, which prevents the opposition and civil society from operating freely in the country. Moreover, attempts by the ruling party to allow President Pierre Nkurunziza to run for a third mandate, in violation of the current constitution, have raised concerns about the democratic future of the country. Additionally, UN reports alleging that the CNDD-FDD has taken steps to arm and train its youth wing, the Imbonerakure, and recent violent incidents attributed the youth chapter, have heightened fears of a relapse of political violence. IN 2010 BURUNDI HELD its first general election by universal suffrage in 17 years. While the polls were intended to mark the end of the immediate post-transition period and the consolidation of democratic governance after decades of war and crisis, the contested results increased tensions and entrenched the ruling National Council for the Defence of Democracy – Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) party. The country experienced two years of instability and violence that was generally blamed on the activities of the CNDD-FDD youth wing (the Imbonerakure), the intelligence services and the police. Most opposition leaders fled the country, leaving a political vacuum. While violence had subsided by the end of 2012, paving the way for the return of the exiled leaders in 2013 under negotiated security guarantees brokered by the UN, uncertainty remains about the stability of the country as it gears up for elections in 2015. Indeed, recent political and legislative developments, such as the passing of a new and restrictive media law, a controversial new framework for the national land commission (CNTB), a disputed review of the constitution by the ruling party, and a rift between the CNDD-FDD and its coalition partner, the Union for National Progress (UPRONA), have created a tense political environment. CENTRAL AFRICA REPORT A year ahead of the next general The war was triggered in 1993 by the elections, a number of questions arise. assassination of Melchior Ndadaye, the What are the potential effects of the first democratically elected and the first contested legislative changes on the Hutu president of the country. Ndadaye, political dynamics of Burundi? What are a member of the moderate Front for the concerns of the opposition and civil Democracy in Burundi (FRODEBU), was society with regards to the ruling party’s killed by Tutsi military officers opposed to actions? How can the recent behaviour a political shift after decades of Tutsi rule of the CNDD-FDD be explained? What by UPRONA. are the short and long-term security risks Initially a cross-communal party, of such sustained political tensions? Is UPRONA became dominated by the there a possibility of a return to ethno- Tutsi elite shortly after the country’s political violence? independence. Its tenure was marked The Arusha Peace Agreement put an end to a 12-year civil war that claimed the lives of some 300 000 Burundians This report, which is based on field by multiple episodes of ethnically research and interviews conducted in engineered violence against Hutus by the the Burundian capital, Bujumbura, in Tutsi-controlled military in 1965, 1972 February 2014, has the aim of analysing and 1988. Ndadaye’s murder triggered the status and dynamics of the political violent ethnic reprisals, which eventually situation in Burundi. It is divided into developed into a full-blown civil war. five sections. The first part analyses the FRODEBU splintered following Ndadaye’s background to Burundi’s current political assassination, with the more radical framework. The second explores the membership splitting from the party and morphing into the CNDD and its armed nature of and the contributing factors to wing, the FDD.1 the current political crisis. The report then assesses the quality and breadth of the The Arusha peace agreement was the political space as the country approaches result of intense negotiations between the 2015 elections. The fourth section 20 Burundian groups and political examines the potential implications of the parties. The main parties to the talks security and stability situation in Burundi. were UPRONA, FRODEBU, the CNDD 21 October Finally, the way forward in preparation of and the Party for the Liberation of the successful and transparent elections next Hutu People (PALIPEHUTU). While the year is addressed. political wing of the CNDD headed by Leonard Nyangoma signed the Arusha 1993 Arusha, consocialism and agreement, the FDD refused to do so, power-sharing declaring the CNDD political leadership THE waR IN BURUNDI illegitimate. This split the CNDD further Burundi’s contemporary political IS TRIGGERED BY THE and resulted in the formation of the more framework is anchored in the Arusha ASSASSination OF radical CNDD-FDD under the leadership Peace and Reconciliation Agreement MELCHIOr NDADAYE, THE of Jean-Bosco Ndayikengurukiye. and its various protocols. This agreement FIRST DEMOCRaticaLLY ELECTED AND FIRST HUTU was signed in the year 2000 and put an Typifying the situation in Burundi as a PRESIDENT OF THE COUNTRY end to a 12-year civil war that claimed political conflict with important ethnic the lives of some 300 000 Burundians. dimensions,2 the Arusha agreement 2 STATUS AND DYNAMICS OF THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN BURUNDI had, among other things, the aim of and reaped the benefit of the demise arrest of the party’s former chairman, developing a system of democratic of two main political rivals, namely Hussein Radjabu, who was believed to governance for the country that FRODEBU and the Forces Nationales de be the party’s successor to Nkurunziza at would ensure the security of ethnic Libération (FNL), both of them Hutu- the next elections. So, almost as early as minorities. The consocialist agreement dominated parties.4 the ascent to power by Nkurunziza and was to ensure power sharing at the his inner military circle they demonstrated The CNDD-FDD’s first term was political level by dividing executive their willingness to suppress opposition characterised by a combination of powers between a president and two within and outside the CNDD-FDD. notable successes and worrying trends. vice-presidents from different political On the one hand, under Nkurunziza’s It was against this backdrop of increased parties and ethnic backgrounds. In leadership, the FNL signed a deal political repression that Burundi prepared addition, it required that a high majority effectively putting an end to the last for the 2010 general elections. In the to pass legislation and amend the remnant of rebel activity. Negotiations months before the polls the ruling party constitution.2 This provision was not initially stalled as the FNL refused to used all the resources at its disposal to only aimed at preventing legislative recognise the legitimacy of the 2005 engineer favourable electoral conditions domination by a single ethnic group, indirect presidential elections. After fierce for the CNDD-FDD and to restrict but also to promote dialogue and fighting between government forces and the political space. For example, the consensus across political divides. the FNL, the rebel group unexpectedly party made multiple attempts to have Furthermore, to promote power sharing signed a ceasefire in September 2006. electoral rules ratified that would give in the security sector, the agreement However, the ceasefire was violated by the CNDD-FDD an advantage. One of made provision for the various armed both the government and the FNL on these was an attempt to introduce an groups to be integrated into the existing numerous occasions as negotiations electoral code that would transfer some army and for the army not to comprise continued tenuously. Finally, in May of the responsibilities of the electoral more than 50 per cent of a single ethnic 2008, an agreement was signed. In the commission to the president. There was also evidence of the CNDD- Even in the early years of his mandate, FDD hindering the opposition’s ability President Nkurunziza displayed a tendency to compete freely and efficiently in the electoral process. Rights of assembly, to silence dissent by force of public demonstration and of political expression were violated regularly. Members of the opposition and of civil group. The rationale of this compromise following year the FNL joined the political society were intimidated, harassed and was that ethnic balance would ensure fold when it officially registered as a arrested by the police and the intelligence the stability of the armed forces, prevent political party. services on numerous occasions.6 UN, ethnic violence and reduce the possibility However, even in the early years of diplomatic and NGO reports7 have of a coup d’état.3 As a result of this his mandate, President Nkurunziza documented the ruling party’s use of provision, the army received an infusion displayed a tendency to silence dissent the Imbonerakure to intimidate the of Hutu soldiers, removing the previous by force. One prominent example is opposition. Many members of the youth domination of the Tutsi elite. the suspension of the accreditation wing are demobilised CNDD-FDD fighters In addition to preparing the way for a new of the non-government organisation who have allegedly been re-armed by constitution and detailing the transitional Forum for the Strengthening of Civil the party to disrupt opposition political political arrangement, the Arusha Society (FORSC). This occurred after meetings.8 FRODEBU and the FNL also agreement stipulated that the first post- it had threatened to disclose the accused the ruling party of creating transitional president would be elected names of individuals they suspected dissident groups within their parties and by the national assembly.
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